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AssessmentsJun 16, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image depicting the global economy.
Trump’s War Against Taxing Tech Goes Global
With international negotiations stalled, many governments are choosing to unilaterally implement digital services taxes (DSTs). The United States -- which is home to the majority of tech giants that would be subject to such taxes, including Amazon, Apple and Google -- is using the threat of tariffs to both limit the global expansion of DSTs and push international negotiations toward the proposed reforms it backs. But with so many countries against Washington's preferred outcome, which critics say would allow U.S. tech companies to opt out of tax obligations in international markets, the risk of negotiations failing to reach an agreement this year is high, as is the risk of the United States implementing tariffs on its growing number of trade partners implementing DSTs. 
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On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
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AssessmentsApr 8, 2020 | 18:16 GMT
A 3D rendering of the novel coronavirus floating in a cellular environment.
COVID-19: Frequently Asked Questions About Getting Back to Work
To help clients sift through the growing sea of COVID-19 information, RANE pulsed its network of experts to level set what should be top of mind for businesses and individuals as the pandemic unfolds. Stratfor’s geopolitical content and analysis will soon be available through RANE’s platform, where members receive exclusive access to a global marketplace of credentialed risk experts and service providers, proprietary community-driven risk intelligence, and a range of support services and risk management programs. For more information about RANE and Stratfor, visit https://go.ranenetwork.com/stratfor/rane.  This FAQ covers the following questions: What do we now know about this illness and who gets it? How can individuals best protect themselves? Do I need to worry about people getting infected by the virus living on things they touch? What do we do if someone shows symptoms while in the workplace? What can I do to mitigate the risk of being shut down by health authorities? How does this end?
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SnapshotsMar 26, 2020 | 19:30 GMT
COVID-19 Throws a Wrench Into India's Economic Plans
The global COVID-19 outbreak has taken hold in India slower than in other areas, though the number of cases in the country has spiked in recent weeks. The central government and several of India’s states have reacted quickly with lockdowns and border closures. Like many other countries grappling with their own epidemics, India is now hoping to minimize the economic impact of such drastic containment measures with a new fiscal stimulus package.  
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AssessmentsMar 26, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa (center) addresses the media in Pretoria after concluding a meeting with various business and political leaders on matters relating to the COVID-19 outbreak on March 22, 2020. 
A Perfect COVID-19 Storm Closes in on South Africa
With only 709 confirmed coronavirus cases as of March 25, South Africa may be lagging a few weeks behind the outbreaks now unfolding in Europe and North America. But when the pandemic does eventually hit the country, it will hit hard. With high rates of people living with HIV or tuberculosis, much of South Africa’s population is immunosuppressed and thus believed to be at risk of dying or in need of significant medical care if they contract the virus. Such a widespread outbreak could, in turn, quickly collapse the country's already fragile health care system and economy, forcing the government to abandon its new austerity budget for expensive relief efforts.
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On SecurityMar 16, 2020 | 17:21 GMT
Police officers engulfed in flames from an incendiary device during protests in Caracas on July 30.
Plan. Prepare. Avoid a Mad Dash When Crisis Erupts
As the prospect of escalating conflict looms over Venezuela and the Korean Peninsula, it is important to revisit the theme of evacuation planning and preparation. Political and environmental crises over the years afford us the opportunity to discuss the contents of your fly-away bag, considerations to take when planning an evacuation route and the importance of coming up with your own plans instead of relying solely on others. This guidance still holds up and we hope that readers in Venezuela and on the Korean Peninsula are reviewing their emergency evacuation plans. Thanks to dozens of case studies looking at previous evacuations during crisis events, there are further lessons to consider, particularly for private individuals and companies that have their own evacuation plans in place.
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AssessmentsMar 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
This photo shows a rows of seats on a passenger aircraft.
As Coronavirus Takes Flight, the Airline Industry Takes Cover
The coronavirus pandemic is ravaging the airline industry, with the most highly impacted countries of China, South Korea, Italy and Iran accounting for over a quarter of global passenger revenue alone. As panicked consumers continue to cancel or suspend their travel plans for fear of getting sick, and as more governments pursue containment measures and travel bans, an increasing number of airlines will be forced to either consolidate or go out of business. In China, this will likely lead to a market that's even more dominated by the state-backed carriers. Bigger airlines in Europe, meanwhile, will merge as revenue losses deal the final blow to their smaller competitors. But while so much is still unknown about how the outbreak will unfold in the weeks ahead, what remains certain is that the airline industry is headed for even more unexpected turbulence.
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PodcastsMar 12, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
'The Unexpected Spy' With Author Tracy Walder
In this episode of Stratfor's Pen and Sword podcast, host Fred Burton speaks with Tracy Walder, author of The Unexpected Spy: From the CIA to the FBI, My Secret Life Taking Down Some of the World's Most Notorious Terrorists. Walder was recruited into the CIA at a jobs fair during college, and has served on several high-profile counterterrorism efforts against al Qaeda during the Iraq War. She then went on to work at the FBI, where she specialized in Chinese counterintelligence operations.
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AssessmentsMar 9, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
This picture taken on Feb. 22, 2020, shows the Palestinian West Bank village of Azmut, east of Nablus, with the Israeli settlement of Elon Moreh in the background.
How Israel's Annexation Strategy Will Prompt a Partnership Pivot
Over the next decade, Israel will pivot away from its close, pro-Western footing to a more independent one as its traditional allies pressure it to change its West Bank strategy. By the end of the 2020s, right-wing politics will gain the upper hand in Israel, expanding its annexationist trend in the Palestinian territories. But a territorially expanded Israel will not always find supportive allies in the United States and Europe, and its Western allies are likely to pressure Israel to reverse its West Bank strategy.
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On SecurityMar 3, 2020 | 15:54 GMT
'The Turner Diaries,' by National Alliance leader William Pierce, provides a blueprint for conducting terrorist operations as an underground organization.
The Right-Wing Extremist Threat in Context: External Extremist Actors
Last week I had the opportunity to speak with someone in the process of setting up a protective intelligence program at a large corporation. During our conversation about various concerns and threats, the topic of the current wave of right-wing extremist attacks arose. We discussed how that threat manifested itself differently when the actor was an outsider versus an insider, as well as steps the company could take to protect itself against these threats. After thinking about that conversation for some days, it occurred to me that there might be broader interest in the topic, and that it might be worth writing on it to place the threat posed by right-wing extremism into context. With that in mind, I have decided to address external right-wing extremist actors and insider extremists.
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Decade ForecastsFeb 12, 2020 | 02:59 GMT
Decade Forecast: 2020-2030
Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.
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On SecurityFeb 11, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Why Protective Intelligence Is the Crux of Corporate Security
In the U.S. military, "staying left of the boom" refers to disarming malicious actors before they can build, plant and ultimately detonate a bomb. And while defusing physical bombs may not be as much of imminent concern to companies, metaphorical bombs in the form of espionage, terrorism, thefts and workplace violence can still result in severe physical, psychological, financial and reputational damage. Just as soldiers are prepared to attend to the aftermath of a physical attack, corporate personnel must still be well-trained to quickly and efficiently respond to a security incident. But it is always better to avoid or prevent a threat altogether, which is exactly where protective intelligence teams and programs step in by giving life to the proactive security measures needed to help companies and organizations stay out of harm's way.
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AssessmentsFeb 5, 2020 | 19:02 GMT
An employee cleans a door at the entrance of the Grand Lisboa Hotel in Macau on Feb. 5, 2020.
Coronavirus Continues to Spread, But It Appears Less Lethal
On Jan. 29, Threat Lens laid out three scenarios for how the outbreak could be resolved, The Global Impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus: 3 Scenarios. At this point, the first scenario, which saw a timely response curbing the impact of the virus, appears to be increasingly unlikely. However, the third scenario, which saw a global pandemic with a low death rate, appears to be playing out. The public health threat is likely to ebb by the end of February, but the disruptions associated with travel restrictions and extended business closures in China can be expected to continue into March and possibly April.
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SnapshotsFeb 3, 2020 | 20:38 GMT
In India, Modi's Budget Balances Spending With Restraint
Since winning a landslide reelection in 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party-led government has grappled with slowing growth in India's $2.9 trillion economy. Though the government has tried to deepen national unity and solidify its base by revoking Kashmir's constitutional autonomy and passing a controversial citizenship bill, the economy continues to haunt its performance, offering a chance for the Indian National Congress and other opposition parties to attack the government on its poor economic record.
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AssessmentsJan 28, 2020 | 17:36 GMT
Environmentalists stage a protest against a World Economic Forum briefing meeting in Brussels on Jan. 27, 2020.
For the Global Economy, a Sluggish 2020 Awaits
For the global economy in the year ahead, challenges won’t be far away, with uncertainty from unpredictable policymaking on trade and investment, coupled with potential geopolitical disruptions and financial vulnerabilities, leading the way. And if these risks come to pass, the world's leading economies will be hard-pressed to respond in a coordinated, effective manner. Already, international cooperation is frayed as countries look increasingly inward, while slower growth with stagnant incomes could encourage even more economic nationalism than exists at present. Ultimately, the host of threats presents the world's policymakers with a tricky path toward safeguarding growth in the global economy.
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