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AssessmentsAug 5, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A view of Dubai, the most populous city in the United Arab Emirates, at sunrise.
COVID-19 Risks Robbing Dubai of Its Economic and Political Autonomy
By sapping Dubai's economic growth, the COVID-19 pandemic will also ultimately erode the emirate's political and economic independence from neighboring Abu Dhabi. Without the tools and funding needed to support its own recovery, Dubai will likely be forced to rely on another bailout from wealthy Abu Dhabi, which could impact Dubai's development plans, especially in tourism and finance. 
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SnapshotsJul 28, 2020 | 15:46 GMT
Europe Braces for Another Round of COVID-19 Travel Restrictions
Amid rising COVID-19 cases, the reintroduction of travel warnings and quarantine measures in Europe will undermine economic activity, especially in tourism-dependent countries, leading to a slower recovery in the third quarter. These dynamics will probably force governments to introduce additional stimulus measures, which would further worsen their deficit and debt situations. 
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On GeopoliticsJul 17, 2020 | 09:30 GMT
Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands on April 21, 2017.
In the South China Sea, Washington Tries to Balance Support and Entanglement
In the recently released U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea, Washington continues to walk a delicate balance between supporting its allies and partners in the region and avoiding entanglement in regional territorial conflicts. The test will come when the United States is called to act upon its more clearly articulated position on Chinese expansionist behavior.
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SnapshotsJul 14, 2020 | 16:31 GMT
What to Make of the U.S. Rejecting China's Claims in the South China Sea
The United States' partial rejection of China's South China Sea claims will add to mounting tensions between the two countries, but will not alone derail their trade deal or upset the status quo of the contested waterway. This marks a shift from the previous U.S. approach of refraining from an official position on specific Chinese claims in the South China Sea, though Washington is still remaining partly neutral by not explicitly backing the overall maritime claims of countries contesting those of China. The waterway, however, will still be a growing site of U.S.-China competition, worsening the two countries' already fraught relationship troubled by Hong Kong, COVID-19, human rights issues and tech competition.
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMT
2020 Third-Quarter Forecast
While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.
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AssessmentsMay 4, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Pedestrians wearing face masks cross an intersection in Seoul, South Korea, on April 23, 2020. In the first quarter of 2020, South Korea's economy saw its worst performance in more than a decade as COVID-19 spread across the country.
With Its COVID-19 Outbreak Contained, South Korea Braces for the Global Fallout
As his country's COVID-19 outbreak wanes, South Korean President Moon Jae In is emerging from the battle stronger than ever, though the economic challenges ahead will impede his ability to translate that success into progress on his ambitious reform agenda. In early March, South Korea's epidemic was the worst outside of China, but it has since been far surpassed by COVID-19 outbreaks elsewhere. On April 30, new domestic spread in the country hit the milestone of dropping to zero after topping 10,000 cases overall. Despite its relatively quick recovery from the virus itself, however, South Korea's economic outlook will remain grim even after the rest of the world -- and in particular, its top trade partners in North America and Europe -- join it on the other side of COVID-19. In the meantime, the need to shore up growth amid a deepening global recession will delay Moon's promised progress on economic inequality
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AssessmentsApr 28, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
A Chinese navy formation, including the aircraft carrier Liaoning (C), during military drills Jan. 2, 2017, in the South China Sea.
Even a Pandemic Does not Stop the South China Sea Competition
Numerous reports have raised fears that China is taking advantage of U.S. distraction and the sidelining of two U.S. aircraft carriers in the Pacific due to the COVID-19 pandemic. China had made similar accusations against the United States earlier this year, claiming Washington was exploiting China's pandemic response to advance its own containment strategy. And both are correct in that the pandemic does not appear to have slowed down Chinese or U.S. activities in the region.
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AssessmentsApr 20, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A woman wearing a protective mask carries a grocery bag in Dedovsk, Russia, on April 16, 2020. To contain the COVID-19 outbreak, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently extended the government’s national stay-at-home order until May.
Russia's COVID-19 Measures Short-Change Its Economy
Despite the likely dire economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian government has continued to resist significant stimulus spending, which has resulted in limited support measures that are unlikely to protect all of Russia’s businesses. This will ultimately hamper Russia’s long-term economic recovery -- a self-inflicted wound as a result of Moscow’s unwillingness to change its conservative spending practices, even in the face of a historic global crisis. 
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AssessmentsApr 8, 2020 | 18:16 GMT
A 3D rendering of the novel coronavirus floating in a cellular environment.
COVID-19: Frequently Asked Questions About Getting Back to Work
To help clients sift through the growing sea of COVID-19 information, RANE pulsed its network of experts to level set what should be top of mind for businesses and individuals as the pandemic unfolds. Stratfor’s geopolitical content and analysis will soon be available through RANE’s platform, where members receive exclusive access to a global marketplace of credentialed risk experts and service providers, proprietary community-driven risk intelligence, and a range of support services and risk management programs. For more information about RANE and Stratfor, visit https://go.ranenetwork.com/stratfor/rane.  This FAQ covers the following questions: What do we now know about this illness and who gets it? How can individuals best protect themselves? Do I need to worry about people getting infected by the virus living on things they touch? What do we do if someone shows symptoms while in the workplace? What can I do to mitigate the risk of being shut down by health authorities? How does this end?
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SnapshotsMar 26, 2020 | 19:30 GMT
COVID-19 Throws a Wrench Into India's Economic Plans
The global COVID-19 outbreak has taken hold in India slower than in other areas, though the number of cases in the country has spiked in recent weeks. The central government and several of India’s states have reacted quickly with lockdowns and border closures. Like many other countries grappling with their own epidemics, India is now hoping to minimize the economic impact of such drastic containment measures with a new fiscal stimulus package.  
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Quarterly ForecastsMar 26, 2020 | 18:27 GMT
2020 Second-Quarter Forecast
Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.
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AssessmentsMar 25, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Fully protected members of the Spanish Army's Nuclear Bacteriological and Chemical Regiment (RNBQ) prepare to disinfect a train station in San Sebastian to prevent the spread of the coronavirus on March 24, 2020.
COVID-19: How Pandemics Disrupt Military Operations
Amid the escalating COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are facing widespread disruptions to not only the health of their populations and economies, but their militaries. Even if the virus itself doesn't leave key personnel severely ill (or worse), quarantine measures can still severely thwart military operations. Meanwhile, military powers such as the United States may increasingly be forced to deploy additional forces to the frontlines of unfolding COVID-19 outbreaks at home. The resulting fallout could, in turn, result in setbacks in the fight against multiple non-state actors abroad, and potentially even the long-term development of military capabilities. 
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AssessmentsMar 20, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Officials in hazmat suits disinfect the outside a tram as a precaution against the coronavirus outbreak in Jerusalem, Israel on March 16, 2020.
Israel's Rival Factions Unite Against COVID-19 -- for Now
As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold in Israel, its political factions are being forced to consider once unthinkable compromises to put the country on the right footing against the mounting existential threat. On March 16, Israeli President Reuven Rivlin officially tasked Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz with forming a government in the next 28 days. Gantz has since pledged to create a national unity government, which, compared with the country's current caretaker government, would have more political strength and legal authority to quickly and sufficiently mitigate the anticipated economic fallout of the coronavirus crisis.  Indeed, Israel's current quarantine efforts -- most of which have only been used during wartime -- are already estimated to cost the country 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020. But even with this new pandemic-induced sense of unity, a makeshift government will unlikely be strong enough to prevent additional coronavirus-induced unrest
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SnapshotsMar 17, 2020 | 18:50 GMT
Europe Tries to Spend Its Way out of the Coronavirus Crisis
In recent days, Europe's five largest economies (Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Spain) have each unveiled various relief measures intended to mitigate the economic fallout of the coronavirus outbreak, including cheaper credit lines, tax delays, and additional support for workers whose incomes have been affected. The measures all share the same goal: putting extra money in the pockets of companies and individuals struggling to make ends meet under increasingly strict quarantine measures. But it could take weeks, if not months, for the impact of such efforts to be fully realized. And in the meantime, many businesses across the Continent will go bankrupt, while others may be forced to permanently lay-off some of the workers they've suspended due to the outbreak.
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On SecurityMar 16, 2020 | 17:21 GMT
Police officers engulfed in flames from an incendiary device during protests in Caracas on July 30.
Plan. Prepare. Avoid a Mad Dash When Crisis Erupts
As the prospect of escalating conflict looms over Venezuela and the Korean Peninsula, it is important to revisit the theme of evacuation planning and preparation. Political and environmental crises over the years afford us the opportunity to discuss the contents of your fly-away bag, considerations to take when planning an evacuation route and the importance of coming up with your own plans instead of relying solely on others. This guidance still holds up and we hope that readers in Venezuela and on the Korean Peninsula are reviewing their emergency evacuation plans. Thanks to dozens of case studies looking at previous evacuations during crisis events, there are further lessons to consider, particularly for private individuals and companies that have their own evacuation plans in place.
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