Search - Nord Stream

SnapshotsJan 22, 2021 | 19:33 GMT

An intercontinental ballistic missile launcher and an armored vehicle are displayed during a military parade in Moscow, Russia, on June 24, 2020, to commemorate the 75th anniversary of Russia’s victory in World War II.

Biden’s Proposed New START Extension Won’t Restart U.S.-Russia Relations

The White House’s push to extend the New START nuclear treaty with Russia will give it space to impose penalties on Moscow’s antagonistic behavior without worrying about the collapse of the two countries’ last remaining major arms control agreement. On Jan. 21, U.S. Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed previous media reporting when she formally announced that President Joe Biden would seek a five-year extension of New START, which limits the two sides’ nuclear arsenals and is due to expire on Feb. 5.

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Echoes of the Cold War

Russia's Internal Struggle

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

SnapshotsJan 21, 2021 | 22:07 GMT

Spanish newspapers show images of newly sworn-in U.S. President Joe Biden on Jan. 21, 2021, in Madrid, Spain.

The EU Welcomes Biden, But Some Disputes Will Remain

Joe Biden’s presidency portends greater U.S.-EU coordination on areas like climate change, COVID-19 and human rights. But Washington and Brussels will likely still spar over trade, tech policy and defense spending. On the day of Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration, European Council President Charles Michel called for a “founding pact” between the United States and the European Union based on five priorities: boosting multilateral cooperation, fighting against COVID-19, tackling climate change, rebuilding the global economy with a digital transformation, and joining forces on security and peace. Also on Jan. 20, the European Union’s chief diplomat, Joseph Borrell, invited Biden’s new Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to a meeting with EU foreign ministers in Lisbon, Portugal, on March 4-5 to restart cooperation.

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

AssessmentsJan 19, 2021 | 22:45 GMT

Journalists and supporters of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny gather near the police station where Navalny was held after being detained at the Moscow airport on Jan. 18, 2021, in Khimki, Russia.

Navalny’s Jailing Will Solidify Russia’s Standoff With the West

Russian authorities’ attempts to silence opposition leader Alexei Navalny affirm their determination to extinguish dissent, which could complicate Moscow’s foreign policy goals by further deteriorating its relations with the West. On Jan. 18, just a day after Navalny returned home for the first time since being poisoned in a suspected assassination attempt by Russian security services in August, a makeshift Russian court ordered that he be jailed for the next 30 days. Navalny faces a potential three-and-a-half-year prison sentence for allegedly breaching the terms of a suspended sentence related to a 2014 fraud conviction, which he says is politically motivated. A court hearing on the matter is scheduled for Feb. 2.

Russia's Internal Struggle

SITUATION REPORTJan 19, 2021 | 21:14 GMT

Russia, Germany: U.S. Sanctions Nord Stream 2 Pipelaying Vessel

Under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned the Russian vessel laying the final pieces of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, Reuters reported Jan. 19.

The Politics of Pipelines

SITUATION REPORTJan 13, 2021 | 21:15 GMT

Russia: Poisoned Opposition Leader to Return Home Despite Threats

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny announced that he will return to Russia on Jan. 17, five months after he was evacuated to Germany following an alleged assassination attempt by Russian security services, AP reported Jan. 13.

Russia

Politics

Russia's Internal Struggle

AssessmentsJan 7, 2021 | 23:06 GMT

Workers build a fence around the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 7, 2021, in Washington, the day after supporters of U.S. President Donald Trump stormed the building.

Tactical Lessons From the U.S. Capitol Siege

The violent siege of the U.S. Capitol exposed serious security flaws and the influence of online platforms in organizing protests, offering lessons for law enforcement and future demonstrators.

United States

Security

Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2021 | 21:37 GMT

2021 Annual Forecast

The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.

SITUATION REPORTDec 29, 2020 | 19:27 GMT

Russia: Poisoned Opposition Leader Receives Ultimatum to Return From Germany

The Russian government has opened a probe against opposition leader Alexei Navalny following his failure to respond to a demand by Russia’s prison service to return from Germany, where he has been recovering after being poisoned in a suspected assassination attempt by Russian security services, Agence France-Presse reported Dec. 29.

Russia

Politics

Russia's Internal Struggle

SITUATION REPORTNov 11, 2020 | 21:19 GMT

Russia, U.S.: Major U.S. Defense Bill Would Expand Nord Stream 2 Sanctions

Democratic and Republican negotiators are finalizing the language of a bill that would scale up sanctions architecture against Nord Stream 2 and other Russian export pipelines in the upcoming must-pass 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, which should pass by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported Nov. 11.

United States

Russia

The Politics of Pipelines

AssessmentsNov 10, 2020 | 18:13 GMT

Then-U.S. Vice President Joe Biden participates in a bilateral meeting at the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 6, 2015.

What a Biden Presidency Means for Europe-U.S. Relations

Cooperation between the United States and Europe on issues including trade, defense, climate change and China will deepen under U.S. President-elect Joe Biden, who will seek closer coordination with Germany and France without abandoning Washington’s bilateral relationship with the United Kingdom. After Biden was declared the winner of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 7, countries including Germany, France and the United Kingdom sent their congratulations and called for increased cooperation with the United States. During the electoral campaign, Biden said he would reverse outgoing president Donald Trump’s unilateralism on global issues and strengthen the United States’ international alliances. Under Biden, the United States and the European Union will thus ikely end their current tit-for-tat policy of tariffs and counter-tariffs and seek negotiated solutions, but the two sides will continue to have trade disputes.

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

China in Transition

GuidanceNov 4, 2020 | 21:33 GMT

Foreign exchange traders in Tokyo, Japan, monitor screens broadcasting results from the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 4, 2020.

The World’s Response to U.S. Election Uncertainty

The global reaction to the initial tallies in the U.S. presidential election has so far been fairly muted as governments await the remaining state results. Statements of support or caution will begin emerging toward the end of the week when countries can better assess the likelihood of protracted legal battles over contested results. In the meantime, Stratfor has analyzed the responses to-date from each region, along with countries’ expected reactions to the final outcome, based on a review of published media.

SnapshotsOct 20, 2020 | 17:49 GMT

A satellite image shows Europe at night.

The U.S. Ramps Up Financial Support to Central and Eastern Europe

U.S. financial support for the Three Seas Initiative shows the White House remains committed to its security and economic engagements in Central and Eastern Europe, with an eye on countering China and Russia’s presence in the region. On Oct. 19, the United States announced that it will contribute $300 million to the Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund, which finances cross-border energy, transport and digital infrastructure projects in the regions between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas, raising its capital base to over $1.3 billion. The United States will use cooperation with the Three Seas Initiative to compete with China and Russia for influence in Central and Eastern Europe, as well as promote its foreign policy agenda in the region (which does not always align with that of the European Union). However, internal divisions among Three Seas Initiative countries will limit the effectiveness of such U.S. influence campaigns by weakening the group’s

SITUATION REPORTOct 13, 2020 | 17:11 GMT

EU: Brussels to Impose Sanctions on Russian and Belarusian Officials

EU foreign affairs ministers agreed to impose sanctions against high-ranking Belarusian authorities including President Alexander Lukashenko due to the government’s crackdown on protesters in the country, Euractiv reported on Oct. 12. The ministers also approved asset freezes and travel bans on Russian people and entities potentially involved in the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

SITUATION REPORTOct 7, 2020 | 20:24 GMT

Ethiopia: Parliament Votes to Cut Contact, Funding With Tigray Leaders

The Ethiopian parliament has voted to cut the federal government’s communication and funding to the ruling bodies of the northern Tigray region, Al Jazeera reported Oct. 7.

Ethiopia

Politics

Old Leaders in a New Africa

Quarterly ForecastsSep 28, 2020 | 11:00 GMT

2020 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.

SnapshotsSep 10, 2020 | 20:29 GMT

Nord Stream 2 Comes Under Fire in Germany

The ongoing debate within the German government on how to respond to the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny is placing the future of Berlin’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline with Russia in doubt. On Sept. 8, the hospital in Berlin where Navalny is being treated said the Russian opposition figure had been removed from a medically induced coma after being poisoned on a flight to Moscow last month. That same day, Chancellor Angela Merkel told German lawmakers that she believes the European Union needs to react to the incident, but is skeptical of linking that crime to the natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Intensifying calls for sanctions within Germany’s coalition government, however -- including from Merkel’s own Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, as well as its governing partner the Social Democratic Party (SPD) -- could potentially shift her position.

The Politics of Pipelines

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

SnapshotsSep 1, 2020 | 16:24 GMT

U.S. Pressure on TikTok Prompts a Chinese Show of Legal Force

The recent expansion of Chinese export controls reflects a long-term strategy wherein Beijing will move to counter and match U.S. efforts to limit China's global tech rise, leading to a further decoupling of the world's two largest economies. On Aug. 28, the Chinese government increased restrictions on the export of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, including text-to-speech technology and data analysis to serve up personalized content. China's ministries in charge of commerce and science and technology jointly released a revised export-control list for the first time since it was compiled in 2008. With these updates, Beijing makes itself a more decisive player in the sale of the popular video-sharing app, TikTok. But more broadly, the new export controls also signal China will deploy its own legal tools to retaliate against the increasingly aggressive use of U.S. export controls to restrict Chinese tech companies abroad.

Modernizing China’s Military

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

China in Transition

GuidanceAug 22, 2020 | 14:00 GMT

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and Alternate Prime Minister and Defense Minister Benny Gantz on May 24, 2020, at a Cabinet meeting of Israel's new unity government at Chagall State Hall in the Knesset in Jerusalem.

The Weekly Rundown: A Budget Deadline in Israel and Petroleum Bill in Nigeria

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

SITUATION REPORTJul 16, 2020 | 20:38 GMT

Russia, U.S.: White House Removes CAATSA Exemptions for Nord Stream 2, TurkStream Pipelines

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced the withdrawal of exemptions that precluded Russian gas pipelines from being subjected to sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), TASS reported July 16.

The Politics of Pipelines

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

AssessmentsJul 9, 2020 | 11:00 GMT

A crane moves Nord Stream 2 pipes at a port near Sassnitz, Germany, on June 5, 2019.

Nord Stream 2 Overcomes One Hurdle Only to Be Met With Another

Denmark’s decision to drop certain technical requirements for operating in its waters will allow Russia to use both of its available pipe-laying vessels to finish constructing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Another Russian vessel, the MV Fortuna, will now also be allowed to operate on the natural gas pipeline between Germany and Russia in Danish waters beginning Aug. 3. The United States, however, is now seeking to expand its sanctions to target all services related to constructing Nord Stream 2, including supply vessels and backfilling vessels. But even if construction is completed before additional sanctions disrupt progress, Washington could still take action to prevent Russia and Germany from putting their pipeline into operation.

The Politics of Pipelines

Filters

Search Tools

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Stratfor.com

Subscribe

Help & Support

OUR COMMITMENT