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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
READ MOREQuarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 11, 2024 | 19:05 GMT
The Goals, and Limits, of the EU's New Defense Industrial Strategy
A new EU defense industrial strategy seeks to support member states' efforts to restock and acquire new defense equipment in the short term and boost the European Union's ability to enhance its defense capabilities and acquire more strategic autonomy on defense in the long term, but disagreements over joint funding and structural constraints to defense spending in Europe may reduce its efficacy. On March 5, the European Commission unveiled the European Defence Industry Strategy (EDIS) and the European Defence Investment Program (EDIP), both of which are meant to boost the bloc's defense capability development. Together, EDIS and EDIP aim to facilitate cross-border cooperation for arms production, purchase and ownership between EU member states, strengthen the bloc's defense technological and industrial base, and create an EU market for defense. The EDIS sets out to clarify how the European Union intends to support the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) to
READ MOREAssessmentsMar 8, 2024 | 21:17 GMT
As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy
As socio-political turbulence dies down, Bangladesh will focus on deepening its economic and diplomatic ties with the United States, India, Japan and China, to facilitate investment and infrastructure agreements. Following weeks of social and political turbulence between late 2023 and early 2024, the degree of opposition protests and political unrest has stabilized in Bangladesh, enabling the government to pursue its foreign policy goals. In Bangladesh's Jan. 7 election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina clinched her fourth consecutive term and fifth overall, with the ruling Awami League (AL) party securing nearly 75% of the seats. Despite initial concerns over potential post-election unrest, protests have waned following the detention and crackdown on numerous activists and leaders of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The electoral process was marred by protests and boycotts from the BNP, which accused the AL of rigging the vote. As a result, in the lead-up to the general election,
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 27, 2024 | 16:49 GMT
Paris' Threat Outlook Amid the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, Part 1
The 2024 Summer Olympic Games will increase many types of risk in Paris, including opportunistic crime that threatens visitors and potentially some form of protest activity that could create a variety of disruptions. Paris will host the 2024 Summer Olympic Games between July 26 and Aug. 11. The event will draw the world's attention as well as millions of visitors to the French capital, posing significant security challenges that include opportunistic crime against newcomers and a variety of possible protest activities, especially on the back of recent political instability in France. While these risks will intensify during particularly high-profile events, like the opening ceremony, they will remain elevated throughout the Games across Paris and beyond, including in areas not necessarily in proximity to sporting venues. As a result, visitors and Parisians alike will face increased risks of theft, violence and transportation disruptions in the weeks surrounding and during the Games.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsFeb 23, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On
When Russian President Vladimir Putin first launched his ''special military operation'' in Ukraine in February 2022, he likely envisioned that his 2023 -- and certainly his 2024 -- annual address to lawmakers would be triumphant. Instead, on Feb. 14, 2024, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted that Russia's operation had gone on ''somewhat longer than planned'' but assured all of its goals would still be achieved. That same day, Putin said that his only regret regarding the war was not having started it earlier. As Putin prepares his second wartime annual address to Russia's Federal Assembly on Feb. 29, a Russian victory in Ukraine appears increasingly likely but it is far from assured.
A year ago, we examined how Russia's invasion of Ukraine had come with significant strategic costs for Moscow and how the subsequent year of war had internally changed Russia. The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the
READ MOREAssessmentsFeb 12, 2024 | 17:17 GMT
How Will Japan's High Debt Levels Impact Its Increased Defense Spending?
Japan's high public debt will not significantly constrain its plans to expand defense spending, but its economy's modest growth potential means the country will still struggle to keep pace with the booming military budgets of its adversaries like China, which will compel Tokyo to seek greater defense cooperation with its allies in the coming years. In the context of increasing geopolitical tensions in East Asia and beyond, Japan is undergoing a very significant shift in defense policy and spending. China's increasing assertiveness in the region, in particular, has sounded alarm bells in Tokyo, with the government of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida referring to China as an ''unprecedented strategic challenge'' in the new national security and defense strategy it published in 2022. North Korea's enhanced military capabilities and, more recently, Russia's war in Ukraine, have also accelerated Japan's shift toward a more resource-intensive defense policy that involves higher defense spending, the
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsFeb 2, 2024 | 16:21 GMT
Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond
Military analysts and observers increasingly believe that the Ukrainians lack the resources for notable territorial gains in 2024 and that Russian forces are better poised for limited gains. Domestic developments in Ukraine amid disagreements over mobilization and strategy are only likely to reinforce this belief. At the same time, media reports citing Western analysts and officials have increasingly speculated that Ukraine could retake the initiative in 2025 when some factors may begin to shift in its favor.
READ MOREAssessmentsJan 22, 2024 | 19:39 GMT
Previewing Sub-Saharan Africa's 2024 Elections
In sub-Saharan Africa, 13 countries will hold elections in 2024, but the polls in Senegal, South Africa, Chad, Ghana and South Sudan will likely be the most impactful, with potential implications ranging from economic fallout to political crises and democratic backsliding.
READ MOREAnnual ForecastsJan 3, 2024 | 00:00 GMT
2024 Annual Geopolitical Forecast
Elections in 2024 across diverse territories and amid various socioeconomic and geopolitical contexts will collectively influence global affairs and shape international relations for the decade ahead.
READ MOREAssessmentsNov 14, 2023 | 19:09 GMT
Mozambique's Disputed Local Elections Offer a Preview for the 2024 National Ballot
Despite recent opposition protests in Mozambique, the ruling party will likely maintain its dominance in the 2024 general elections and beyond, bolstered by a huge influx of revenue from an eventual restart of construction on a major liquified natural gas project. However, the revenue windfall will also generate uncertainty over the ruling party's objectives in Mozambique's northern provinces. In recent weeks, supporters of the opposition Mozambican National Resistance Movement party, better known as Renamo, have staged repeated protests across the country after the National Election Commission voted on Oct. 18 to confirm the ruling Frelimo party's victory in 64 of 65 municipalities in the Oct. 11 municipal elections. Nine civilians and one police officer were injured in northern Nampula province, while police used tear gas and made mass arrests to disrupt protesters who used burning barricades in the capital Maputo and smaller cities Nacala and Quelimane. Renamo members and supporters
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 25, 2023 | 21:30 GMT
What to Make of China's Rapid Dismissal of Two Top Ministers
The rapid dismissal of two of China's top ministers will lead Beijing to more closely enforce discipline, and the empowerment of the Chinese Communist Party over the state could harm China's efforts at economic recovery, mending fences with the West and military modernization. The National People's Congress Standing Committee announced on Oct. 24 that Li Shangfu had been dismissed as China's defense minister. The announcement follows Qin Gang's dismissal as foreign minister in July, and both Li and Qin have been removed from their higher posts as state councilors. The Party's foreign policy chief (and former foreign minister) Wang Yi replaced Qin on July 25, but Beijing has not yet named a replacement for Li. During the months prior to each dismissal, the Party's disciplinary inspection authorities announced investigations into Li and Qin for corruption and misconduct, and both officials were largely absent from public view. Likewise, China's military leaders
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 19, 2023 | 20:14 GMT
Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia
Despite the prospect of Azerbaijan seizing southern Armenia and the so-called Zangezur corridor by force, Baku is more likely to conduct comparatively smaller territorial incursions and cross-border shelling to pressure Armenia into an agreement. On Oct. 16, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State strongly denied an Oct. 13 Politico report that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned a group of U.S. lawmakers that his department was tracking the possibility of Azerbaijan invading southern Armenia in the coming weeks. While the spokesperson stated the article was inaccurate and ''in no way reflects what Secretary Blinken said to lawmakers,'' the report added to preexisting speculation that a renewed Armenia-Azerbaijan war may be more likely than previously expected.
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 17, 2023 | 20:37 GMT
How Will the EU's De-Risking Strategy Toward China Evolve?
The European Union's de-risking strategy toward China will remain only partially aligned with that of the United States, which will raise the costs of doing business in both Europe and China but won't upend trade and investment relations between the two. In recent months, the European Union and some of its key member states have announced a series of China-focused strategies and policy measures that show the bloc's growing assertion in pursuing its ''de-risking'' strategy toward Beijing. In June, the European Union unveiled its first-ever economic security strategy, which proposed steps to curb EU exports and outbound investment in highly sensitive technologies toward adversarial countries, as well as reduce EU member states' reliance on such countries for economic growth and strategically important goods. While China was not explicitly mentioned in the strategy, it was heavily implied as the main target. In July, the German government published its first-ever China strategy,
READ MOREAssessmentsOct 9, 2023 | 21:46 GMT
The Implications of an Israeli Ground Invasion in Gaza
A seemingly imminent Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip will threaten to spark another intifada, raise the risk of other armed groups joining the conflict, and force Israel to choose among unattractive options for potentially re-occupying the territory. It would also threaten Israel's normalization with Saudi Arabia, trigger anti-Israeli unrest in other regional countries and possibly spark a refugee crisis in Egypt. On Oct. 9, Israel's chief military spokesperson said the Israel Defense Forces had called up a record 300,000 reservists, including key units needed for a ground invasion, and is ''going on the offensive.'' These actions set the stage for a likely Israeli ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in retaliation for the attacks that Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas began on Oct. 7. Through an invasion, Israel hopes to degrade Hamas' military infrastructure and ability to carry out future attacks, as well as rescue hostages when possible.
READ MOREOn GeopoliticsAug 3, 2023 | 22:26 GMT
Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Updating Our Analysis, One Year On
In August 2022, we interrogated the arguments for and against time being on Kyiv's side and on Moscow's side in the war in Ukraine. With Ukraine's long-anticipated counteroffensive currently stalling, the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius behind us, and Kyiv's peace plan set to be discussed in Saudi Arabia later this week, now is a good opportunity to update the narratives we laid out a year ago.
READ MORESnapshotsJun 24, 2023 | 22:35 GMT
Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia
The demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, will reduce domestic criticism of the Kremlin's handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, but also open the door to additional internal repressions and personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run. On June 24, a convoy of Wagner mercenary forces stopped their so-called march on Moscow roughly 300 kilometers (186 miles) from the Russian capital, after several hours of uncertainty about their ultimate goal. The group had begun its march on the Russia-Ukraine border late on June 23, as Wagner leader Prigozhin said the measure was meant to protest the Kremlin's mishandling of the war. Hours after Prigozhin gave the order for his mercenaries to advance on Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a televised address in which he said that the fighters of the Wagner Group were being "dragged into a criminal adventure"
READ MOREAssessmentsJun 6, 2023 | 15:37 GMT
Chinese Chatbots and the Rise of AI Risks
In the global race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots, Chinese censorship may hamper its competitiveness and pose compliance, reputational and other cyber risks for multinational organizations that use Chinese chatbots abroad, especially if they operate in China. In November 2022, U.S. firm OpenAI's release of ChatGPT kicked off a global race to develop similar AI chatbots, heightening technological competition between the United States and China in particular. Following ChatGPT's introduction into the market, several Chinese companies raced to release their own models, such as internet company Baidu, whose Ernie Bot was unveiled in March, though it is only available to those who apply for and receive an access code and is still awaiting official governmental approval.
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