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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 09:00 GMT
2024 Elections: The European Union
2024 Elections: The European Union
Opinion polls suggest the June 9 European Parliament election will see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains across several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties, with potentially significant policy implications for the bloc.
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Europe
Politics
AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 17:15 GMT
Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN
On April 11, Mexico submitted formal proceedings against Ecuador in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), arguing that the latter "violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law" by raiding the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5, and therefore should be suspended from the United Nations, according to an April 11 press release from the International Court of Justice. 
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Ecuador
Mexico
Politics
SnapshotsApr 9, 2024 | 21:21 GMT
Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.
The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy
Israel's military strategy in the Gaza Strip is more overtly shifting to targeted operations instead of large-scale operations, but Israel's apparent lack of a sustainable governing strategy for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence on the ground. On April 7, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew all but one brigade from Gaza. The same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the Palestinian militant group had been degraded to the point where it no longer ''poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.'' The withdrawal of IDF forces triggered a backlash from the country's right wing, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatening to collapse the government if there was no offensive on Rafah. In an effort to push back against the right-wing opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 8 that ''there is a date'' to attack Rafah and that ''it will happen.''
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese car manufacturer BYD's stacked electric vehicles wait to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Sept. 11, 2023.
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
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United States
Australia
China
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 1, 2024 | 15:09 GMT
Ecuador's flag waves behind rows of coins.
Can Ecuador Escape Its Cycle of Economic Instability?
While it may help Ecuador avoid a greater crisis in the years ahead, another International Monetary Fund (IMF) program is unlikely to ensure the country's long-term economic and financial stability, as the government will continue to struggle to maintain macroeconomic discipline amid significant political constraints. Ecuador has a long history of political and financial instability. A combination of economic challenges, socio-economic discontent and, at the institutional level, legislative-executive deadlock have prevented successive Ecuadorian governments from pursuing forward-looking economic policies, which, in turn, has contributed to the South American country's recurring financial problems. Since its independence in 1822, Ecuador has defaulted on its debt almost a dozen times. And in just the past 30 years, five Ecuadorian presidents have either been ousted, deposed or impeached, with the most recent being former President Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023), whose term was cut short after he dissolved the National Assembly and triggered early elections.
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Ecuador
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 26, 2024 | 20:09 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are seen during a meeting of Israel's War Cabinet on Oct. 18, 2023.
Growing U.S. Criticism Will Constrain Israel's Future Foreign Policy
The United States' increasing criticism of Israeli foreign policies and its gradual disengagement from the Middle East will feed into Israel's larger debate about defense self-sufficiency and encourage future Israeli governments to pursue policies that aim to reduce their country's reliance on Washington. On March 14, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York called for new elections in Israel and criticized the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The criticism was particularly notable in part because of Schumer's strong pro-Israel record and his previous alignment with Netanyahu over issues like the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which they both opposed. This comes against the backdrop of rising tensions between the U.S. government and Israel since the beginning of the Gaza war on Oct. 7. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly pushed the Israeli government to restrain its military tactics to preserve civilian lives and improve humanitarian
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United States
Israel
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 25, 2024 | 17:55 GMT
Then-Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong looks on during a meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 21, 2023.
Another Abrupt Leadership Change Sows Doubt About Vietnam's Political Stability
The resignation of Vietnam's president will likely further empower the country's national security apparatus, which in the longer term could harm the country's business climate. On March 20, the Central Committee of the Vietnamese Communist Party, or VCP, accepted the resignation of President Vo Van Thuong for breaking unspecified party rules. According to the VCP, Thuong violated ''regulations on what party members cannot do,'' but the authorities did not elaborate on what exactly those rules were. He was also relieved of his membership in the Politburo (where he had been ranked the second-most powerful member, behind only VCP General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong), the 13th Party Central Committee and the National Assembly, as well as his role as head of Vietnam's defense and security council. The VCP's statement said Thuong filed a request to resign from these positions, which was granted, and that he will retire from politics.
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Vietnam
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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