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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportApr 18, 2024 | 16:25 GMT
U.K., China: London Considers New Restrictions on Emerging Tech Over Security Risks
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden said the United Kingdom is considering possible new outbound investment and export restrictions on emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, cryogenic equipment and facial recognition technology due to potential security risks tied to technology transfers to adversarial countries such as Russia and China, Bloomberg reported on April 18.
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United States
China
United Kingdom
Russia
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Politics
SnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
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Singapore
Economics
Politics
AssessmentsApr 16, 2024 | 18:59 GMT
A photo of the Somali flag.
Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad
A protracted increase in tensions between Somalia's federal government and the state of Puntland over changes to the Somali Constitution will likely widen the rift between Somalia and Ethiopia and could enable al Shabab to expand its jihadist activity. On March 30, Somalia's bicameral federal parliament approved changes to the first four revised chapters of the country's 15-chapter provisional constitution, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signing off on the changes on March 31. The revisions strengthen the president's authority and sanction the adoption of direct universal suffrage, among other changes. However, the state of Puntland responded by withdrawing its recognition of the federal government on March 31, claiming that Mogadishu had not appropriately consulted its government about the changes. Puntland added that it would act independently from the federal government until the Somali public approves the constitutional changes in a nationwide referendum. Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Mesganu
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Ethiopia
Somalia
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 15, 2024 | 18:57 GMT
U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C.
Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China
The recent summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicates the indispensability of the expanding Japan-U.S. defense partnership to both countries' Asia-Pacific policy agendas and the secondary nature of the United States' ties with South Korea, while new U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict. Biden and Kishida met on April 10 for an hour and a half in a closed-door meeting, followed by a joint press conference at the White House and a state dinner for Kishida and his wife later that night. A joint statement later released by both sides explored the geopolitical, industrial, and defense content of the meeting. On the geopolitical side, much ink was spilled affirming ideological common ground, including a free and open international order; opposing Chinese efforts to change the territorial status
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United States
China
Japan
South Korea
Military & Security
Politics
Situation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 19:50 GMT
U.S.: Russian Hackers Steal Federal Agency Emails, Compromise Credentials
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, publicly disclosed that Russian government-linked hackers had stolen emails between several U.S. federal agencies and Microsoft during a previously disclosed monthslong hack, including potential login credentials and passwords, Politico reported on April 11.
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United States
Russia
Cyber
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 12, 2024 | 19:03 GMT
An image reading 2024 Elections: India
2024 Elections: India
India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.
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India
Politics
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