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In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi's Hawkish Side

AssessmentsJul 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

An image depicts waving Chinese and Indian flags overlaying a map of the world.

A surge of anti-China sentiment among Indian lawmakers, business leaders and voters will prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Bejing in the wake of the two countries' recent border clash. This could include a variety of actions ranging from diplomatic moves to economic and trade measures, as well as a continued military build-up against China, which will only further ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Modernizing China’s Military

U.S., China: White House Further Restricts Semiconductor Sales to Huawei

India's Own Worst Enemy

SITUATION REPORTMay 15, 2020 | 19:25 GMT

The U.S. Commerce Department said it was increasing its export controls for shipments of semiconductors to Chinese tech giant Huawei from global chipmakers, Reuters reported May 15

The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting

On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.

During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic

The Global Demographic Crunch

AssessmentsMay 6, 2020 | 10:00 GMT

An image displays rows of silicon wafers.

The U.S. Weaponizes COVID-19 Anger Against China’s Tech Sector

The United States and China have been locked in a technology cold war for several years. The COVID-19 pandemic, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, is now pressuring Washington to make even stronger moves against Beijing by fueling anti-China sentiment among U.S. voters and legislators alike. But the White House’s latest attempt to increase export controls on China and limit Beijing's overall access to U.S. technology will come at the cost of further fragmenting the global tech sector’s highly integrated supply chain network.

U.S.: Commerce Department Issues New Rules on Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties

SITUATION REPORTFeb 4, 2020 | 15:49 GMT

The U.S. Commerce Department finalized a rule on Feb. 4 to allow Washington to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties against countries with undervalued currencies.

United States

Economics

Senior Analyst for Global EconomicsJan 17, 2020 | 13:08 GMT

Michael Monderer

Michael Monderer is Stratfor’s senior analyst for global economics focusing on the intersection between macroeconomics and geopolitics. Mr. Monderer covers issues related to country and political risk, including fiscal and monetary policies, balance of payments and capital flows, international debt, and currencies and exchange rates. Before joining Stratfor he was managing director at the G7 Group, Inc. and subsequently the G20 Group, LLC. Previously, Mr. Monderer was U.S. Treasury Department's director for international debt policy and senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs, roles in which he negotiated international debt restructuring agreements with more than 60 countries.

SITUATION REPORTDec 16, 2019 | 17:38 GMT

Germany: Chinese Ambassador Threatens Retaliation If Berlin Bans Huawei From 5G Development

The Chinese ambassador to Germany has threatened retaliation if Berlin excludes Huawei from developing its 5G network, Bloomberg reported Dec. 14.

SITUATION REPORTDec 11, 2019 | 13:34 GMT

Germany: Huawei, Nokia to Take Equal Role in Developing Telefonica's 5G Network

Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and Finland's Nokia will take an equal share in expanding the 5G network of Telefonica Deutschland, Germany's second-largest mobile network operator, according to a company announcement on Dec. 11.

Germany

China, U.S.: Government Reportedly Considering New Restrictions on Huawei

SITUATION REPORTDec 2, 2019 | 19:06 GMT

The United States is reportedly considering new regulations on Huawei to further cut off the Chinese telecommunications firm from U.S. technology and suppliers, Reuters reported Nov. 29.

SITUATION REPORTNov 20, 2019 | 20:49 GMT

China: U.S. Commerce Department Allows Some Suppliers to Resume Sales to Huawei

The U.S. Commerce Department has begun issuing licenses to U.S. companies to export some U.S. technology and products to Huawei in areas that do not pose a risk to national security or foreign policy interests, Reuters reported Nov. 20.

SITUATION REPORTNov 13, 2019 | 16:06 GMT

Canada: Intelligence Agencies Disagree Over Excluding Huawei From 5G Networks

Two of Canada's intelligence agencies are at odds over whether the country should bar equipment from Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from Canada's 5G networks, The Globe and Mail reported Nov. 12.

Canada

China

India: Opposition INC to Hold Nationwide Protests

SITUATION REPORTNov 5, 2019 | 16:49 GMT

The Indian National Congress (INC), the country's main opposition party, is planning nationwide protests from Nov. 5-15 to voice its dissatisfaction with India's cooling economic growth, unemployment and the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, The Indian Express reported Nov. 5.

India

India's Own Worst Enemy

On GeopoliticsNov 1, 2019 | 09:30 GMT

The national flags of China and the United States.

By Mixing Tech and Human Rights Sanctions on China, the White House Crosses the Rubicon

Conspicuously absent from an emerging China-U.S. trade truce is the outstanding issue of U.S. export restrictions against Huawei. The omission reveals an uncomfortable and growing reality for U.S. tech firms: Politically convenient trade truces will come and go, but the strategic competition between the United States and China is deepening. Technology is a fundamental component of this broader rivalry, which also makes it a radioactive element in the trade talks and a prime target for China hawks advocating a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. At this stage of the competition, national security, human rights and sovereignty are getting mashed together along with American public attitudes on how to contend with China when it comes to shaping U.S. policy. As a result, the political room to negotiate on an issue like Huawei is narrowing by the day, driving a more hard-line U.S. policy toward China overall.

SnapshotsAug 27, 2019 | 19:07 GMT

U.S.: A Chipmaker's Patent Lawsuits Risk Upending the High-Tech Industry

Legal action taken by U.S.-based chipmaker GlobalFoundries has the potential to disrupt supply chains for manufacturers of a variety of consumer electronic devices, including heavy hitters such as Apple Inc. In multiple lawsuits filed Aug. 27 in the United States and Germany and in a complaint filed with the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), GlobalFoundries accuses rival Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) of infringing on its patents by using its protected methods and equipment to manufacture certain types of semiconductors. It is seeking an import ban of the chips made by TSMC outside the United States using those processes and of any devices containing those chips.

AssessmentsAug 27, 2019 | 09:15 GMT

Chinese investors watch a stock ticker at a Beijing securities company on Aug. 26.

Trump Looks to Open Another Front in the Trade War With China

For much of August, the United States and China have followed a tit-for-tat pattern of tariffs as they wage their trade war, with Beijing answering the round of U.S. tariffs announced Aug. 1 by President Donald Trump with some of its own. But a bombshell announcement by Trump on Aug. 23 has the potential to change the rules of the game. With the tweet "American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China," Trump offered a glimpse of where he might take the trade fight next. Although Trump followed his stark warning only with an announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese goods, he later reiterated that the White House had the power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to force U.S. companies to divest from China, keeping the option of an economic withdrawal on the table.

United States

China

Congo: Why the Shutdown of One Cobalt Mine Matters

SnapshotsAug 7, 2019 | 22:08 GMT

British-Swiss mining powerhouse Glencore has announced that it will shut down cobalt and copper production from its Mutanda mining operation in the Katanga province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo by the end of the year. The company expects the shutdown to last at least two years, although, after that amount of time, the benefits of restarting operations could be insufficient to justify a restart. In 2018, besides about 200,000 metric tons of copper, the mine produced just over 27,000 metric tons of cobalt -- around 20 percent of total global production of the strategic metal.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Supply Chains

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTJul 26, 2019 | 16:51 GMT

China: U.S. Trading Company Halts Soybean Sales to China Over Trade Uncertainty, Falling Sales

Portland-based Columbia Grain Trading Inc. has said it stopped all new soybean sales to Chinese customers over falling profits and ongoing trade uncertainty, Bloomberg reported July 26.

SITUATION REPORTJul 17, 2019 | 13:45 GMT

EU: European Commission to Investigate Amazon in Antitrust Probe

The European Commission is opening a competition investigation into Amazon's practices of allegedly using non-public data from third-party sellers to gain an unfair advantage, The Wall Street Journal reported July 17.

Europe