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AssessmentsApr 22, 2024 | 20:21 GMT
Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China
China's efforts to rein in unsustainable investment in the infrastructure and real estate sector will not lead to a systemic financial crisis, but broader reforms aimed at substantially reducing excess savings or creating more profitable investment opportunities that would help rebalance the economy toward more sustainable medium-term growth will remain unlikely in the coming years. Chinese economic policymakers have been seeking to rein in unsustainable investment in infrastructure and the real estate sector amid macro-financial risks caused by a very high savings rate in the context of a declining profitability of investment. The very structure of Chinese investment, which is concentrated in infrastructure and housing, is generating declining and increasingly negative financial returns. A declining profitability of investment is to be expected, as China approaches the technological frontier and the marginal productivity of capital declines, and as highly profitable investment projects become scarcer. The recurring misallocation of capital or overinvestment
READ MORESituation ReportApr 22, 2024 | 19:28 GMT
Qatar: Hamas Reportedly Looking To Relocate Political Bureau
The Palestinian militant group Hamas contacted Oman and an unnamed regional country about relocating its political leaders from Doha, Qatar, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 20.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 22, 2024 | 18:31 GMT
China: Military Reorganization To Aid Development, Address Corruption Concerns
The April 20 dissolution of the Chinese military's Strategic Support Force, or SSF, will create "a new system of services and arms under the leadership and command of the Central Military Commission," the state-run People's Daily reported on April 22, citing a Defense Ministry spokesperson.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
READ MORESnapshotsApr 17, 2024 | 17:00 GMT
Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime
While an impending leadership change in Singapore portends short-term policy continuity, it could lead to a snap election and may signal that the ruling party's monopolistic political leadership is gradually waning. On April 15, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced that he would step down in favor of his chosen successor, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who will become the country's fourth prime minister since 1965. The transition is set for May 15. After the transfer of authority, Wong will lead the ruling People's Action Party, or PAP, in preparation for the city-state's next general election, which is due by November 2025. Lee will serve as a senior minister in Wong's Cabinet following the handover.
READ MOREPodcastsApr 15, 2024 | 18:00 GMT
RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI
In this episode of RANE Insights, RANE co-founder David Lawrence speaks with ENODO Global founder and CEO James R. Sisco about how companies can leverage social listening in corporate culture discussions.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 19:58 GMT
France: Cyberattack Disrupts Servers in Five Municipalities
A large-scale cyberattack has disrupted shared computer servers in at least five municipalities on the west coast of France near the river Loire since April 9, affecting email and phone telecommunications, The Record reported on April 11.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 11, 2024 | 18:43 GMT
Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government
Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.
READ MORESnapshotsApr 11, 2024 | 18:18 GMT
France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections
In France, bringing public finances back on a sustainable path following years of spending increases would require the government to adopt politically painful measures that may ultimately lead to a government collapse and early elections. On April 10, the French government unveiled new annual budgetary objectives through 2027 in response to a rapid deterioration of the country's public finances, raising its deficit target for 2024 to 5.1% of gross domestic product from the originally planned 4.4%. Meanwhile, the government maintained its goal of bringing the deficit below 3% in 2027. Achieving this target will require additional spending cuts worth 10 billion euros ($10.85 billion) this year, on top of the 10 billion euros of cuts already announced in February, and even stricter measures for the 2025 budget, with the Finance Ministry working on a further 20 billion euro cut for 2025 to bring the fiscal deficit back on a downward
READ MORESituation ReportApr 11, 2024 | 17:24 GMT
Ethiopia: Leading Oromo Liberation Front Figure Killed
Unknown actors killed Bate Urgessa, a political officer of Ethiopia's opposition Oromo Liberation Front party, or OLF, on April 9 in the town Meki, Oromia, Addis Standard reported April 10.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 10, 2024 | 21:02 GMT
In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy
The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly will further lock in Belarus' integration with Russia and prepare the country for President Alexander Lukashenko's eventual succession process. Belarus' extra-parliamentary body, more commonly referred to as the Belarusian People's Congress (BPC) by the government, will gather April 24-25 and consists of 1,200 members -- primarily officeholders from the legislative and executive branches of power, as well as judiciary members and smaller numbers of delegates from non-government institutions. The convocation will be the newly empowered body's first since it received new powers in a February 2022 constitutional referendum held under neither free nor fair circumstances just three days after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. The constitution's amendments give the BPC the power to certify election results, impeach the president, initiate changes to the constitution, and enact a state of emergency or martial law. The BPC's new constitutionally enshrined functions also include appointing judges to
READ MORESituation ReportApr 9, 2024 | 20:23 GMT
Somalia: Government on High Alert After U.S. Warns of Possible Attacks in Capital
The U.S. Embassy in Kenya received intelligence concerning potential threats to several locations in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, notably Aden Adde International Airport, Garowe Online reported on April 9.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 9, 2024 | 15:54 GMT
Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Claims Responsibility for Attack on Russian Vessel in Kaliningrad
Ukrainian military intelligence was responsible for a fire on the Russian naval corvette Serpukhov in the Russian exclave territory of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea on Apr. 7, Bloomberg reported April 9.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 19:21 GMT
What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit
A trilateral partnership between the United States, Japan and the Philippines focusing on cyberdefense, joint maritime patrols and supply chain resilience will likely help improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but it may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China. U.S. President Joe Biden will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for a state visit on April 10, followed by a trilateral summit on April 11 where Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will also be present. The trilateral summit between the United States, the Philippines and Japan will be the first of its kind and will focus on three main areas: national security, economic security and mitigating climate change, with an eye toward institutionalizing cooperation via formal dialogue mechanisms in the medium-to-long term. The summit will likely conclude with the issuance of a joint vision statement laying out each country's
READ MORESituation ReportApr 8, 2024 | 16:16 GMT
Japan: Belated Arrival of Ride-Sharing to Help Improve Attraction to Foreign Businesses
The Tokyo Hire-Taxi Association held a ceremony to celebrate the start of Japan's first ride-sharing service on April 8, according to Asahi Shimbun, with other cities and new ride-sharing services to follow over the next month after a nationwide ban was lifted in April.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 5, 2024 | 15:54 GMT
EU, Russia: Prague Says Russia Made Thousands of Attempts to Interfere With European Rail Networks
The Czech Republic's transport minister says that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has made thousands of attempts to interfere with European rail networks and to weaken systems, Financial Times reported on April 4.
READ MOREAssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2024 | 18:58 GMT
U.S.: Cyber Review Board Faults Microsoft for Chinese Hack of Government Emails
The U.S. Cyber Safety Review Board issued a report detailing U.S. technology company Microsoft's failures, including poor cybersecurity, lax corporate culture and a lack of transparency, that led to a breach of U.S. government email systems first discovered in June 2023, The Washington Post reported on April 2.
READ MORESituation ReportApr 3, 2024 | 15:08 GMT
Russia: Arctic LNG 2 Suspends Liquefaction Due to Sanctions, LNG Carrier Shortage
Russian liquified natural gas exporter Novatek suspended production at its newly christened Arctic LNG 2 project due to Western sanctions and a shortage of LNG carriers, Reuters reported on April 2.
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