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Showing 2628 results for TREATY sorted by

SnapshotsJul 31, 2020 | 16:39 GMT
A Year-Long Election Delay Extends Hong Kong’s Political Crisis
The one-year delay of the Hong Kong election appears to be an attempt to exhaust the opposition pro-democracy camp, though it may instead serve as a rallying point domestically and internationally. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced July 31 that the Legislative Council elections would be delayed by a year, to Sept. 5, 2021, citing the COVID-19 pandemic and her prerogative under the Emergency Regulation Ordinance. The delay, however, was more likely a desperate move by Lam and her pro-Beijing camp, who was facing the real possibility of a much larger win for the pro-democracy camp. As such, the move may embolden the opposition to keep up pressure through international contact and domestic resistance -- whether via organized rallies and protests, or in the Legislative Council before its current term ends Sept. 30. 
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SITUATION REPORTJul 21, 2020 | 20:52 GMT
Jordan: Prime Minister Hints at Support for Single Israeli-Palestinian State
Jordanian Prime Minister Omar Razzaz said in an interview that he would “look favorably” on a single democratic, binational state that guarantees equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians in the event that Israel’s planned annexation of territory in the West Bank renders a two-state solution impossible, AP reported July 21. 
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On GeopoliticsJul 17, 2020 | 09:30 GMT
Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands on April 21, 2017.
In the South China Sea, Washington Tries to Balance Support and Entanglement
In the recently released U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea, Washington continues to walk a delicate balance between supporting its allies and partners in the region and avoiding entanglement in regional territorial conflicts. The test will come when the United States is called to act upon its more clearly articulated position on Chinese expansionist behavior.
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SnapshotsJul 15, 2020 | 20:33 GMT
Trump Carefully Continues to Increase Pressure on China in Hong Kong
Despite growing bipartisan pressure among U.S. legislators to take more aggressive action against China, the White House's latest actions in Hong Kong indicate the administration still seeks to avoid any moves that could substantively damage the city's status as an economic hub or jeopardize the U.S.-China phase one trade deal. On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the issuing of an executive order invoking the United States-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 to certify the city no longer warrants autonomous treatment under U.S. law, as well as the signing of the Hong Kong Autonomy Act (HKAA) into law. These two actions mark another step in the incremental escalation of U.S. pressure on China over its implementation of a severe new national security law in the city but still fall short of more extreme moves Washington could take, reflecting a still cautious White House strategy. 
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Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMT
2020 Third-Quarter Forecast
While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.
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AssessmentsJun 18, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are displayed during a military parade at Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on Oct. 1, 2019.
With U.S.-Russia Talks Ahead, New START’s Future Hangs in the Balance
The United States is seeking to buy time in upcoming arms control discussions with Russia, and could agree to a brief extension of New START in an effort to draw China into a longer-term discussion about its potential inclusion in the treaty. Washington may now be more willing to preserve core New START elements that restrict the number of strategic nuclear weapons and delivery systems that each signatory can have. The White House’s arms control negotiator, Marshall Billingslea, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov are slated to finally meet in Vienna on June 22 to discuss the future of New START, which came into force in 2011 and is now set to expire in February 2021 unless both parties agree to a five-year extension provided within the treaty itself. Recent leaks from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump have suggested that a shorter extension (i.e. less than the five
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SnapshotsJun 4, 2020 | 19:36 GMT
With a Satellite Launch, Russia Beefs up Its Nuclear Deterrent
Russia managed to restore a significant element of its nuclear deterrent by regaining a minimal space-based early warning capability when its most recent Tundra satellite became operational following a May 22 launch. Russia's nuclear deterrent capability, which includes defensive measures such as this early-warning capability, is a core to its bid for great power status.
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SnapshotsMay 6, 2020 | 19:48 GMT
The U.S. Looks to Mine the Moon on Its Own Terms
With the United States and China gearing up to send astronauts back to the moon and beyond, the competition of space resources between Washington and its rivals will heat up, as will the race to define the international rules, standards, laws and regulations governing the final frontier. But the White House's attempt to lead the development of space resources by negotiating a moon-mining pact with like-minded countries will struggle, and ultimately fail, to gain global acceptance.
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SITUATION REPORTApr 3, 2020 | 16:19 GMT
Europe: EU Finance Ministers to Discuss COVID-19 Bailout in April 7 Meeting 
The European Union is getting close to reaching an agreement to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to grant loans to countries hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as Italy and Spain, El Pais reported April 3 citing preparatory documents for the April 7 meeting of EU finance ministers.
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SnapshotsMar 11, 2020 | 20:57 GMT
The European Central Bank Faces the COVID-19 Crisis With Limited Options
The European Central Bank is in a difficult position, with financial markets pricing in a near 100 percent probability of a 10 basis point cut in the already negative −0.5 percent deposit rate on bank reserves when the ECB's Governing Council meets March 12. Markets recognize the relative impotence of monetary policy in responding to the COVID-19 outbreak, which was initially a supply-driven shock that is now morphing into slack demand and the need for decisive government responses to the public health crisis. With the exception of Italy and the announcement of new investment in Germany, however, little is being done and markets expect a central bank independent of politics to step up and act as the "only game in town."
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SnapshotsFeb 14, 2020 | 20:24 GMT
Belarus Threatens to Siphon Russia's Europe-Bound Oil
Belarus' recent threats to both siphon oil from the transit pipelines, as well as fine Russia for a delayed nuclear plant construction, form a notable escalation in Minsk’s stance toward Russia in the two countries' ongoing standoff over oil deliveries. But the risk that escalated tensions would result in an actual oil cutoff across the massive Druzhba pipeline network -- which carries oil from Russia to points across Eastern Europe -- is low. Due to the deeply intertwined nature of the two economies, Russia will likely instead weaponize the many other ways in which Minsk remains financially reliant on Moscow in order to keep Belarus from dipping into its European oil exports. But the threats nonetheless mark a clear shift in Minsk's negotiating position.
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SnapshotsFeb 11, 2020 | 21:24 GMT
Duterte Formally Moves to End a U.S.-Philippine Military Pact
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's Feb. 11 formal announcement to the United States that the Philippines would be withdrawing from the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) in six months will increase the urgency of negotiations set to begin in March between the two countries over the major bilateral military pact. While an end to the VFA would not end the two countries' military relationship given that several other security agreements would remain in force between them, it would complicate that relationship.
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