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AssessmentsJun 27, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Refugees and migrants stand at a port upon arriving at the Greek island of Lesbos on March 7, 2020.
Summer Weather Will Rekindle Europe's Migration Debate
The summer months will see an uptick in the arrival of migrants to Europe by sea and land, though a repetition of the 2015 crisis is unlikely. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis, however, even a moderate increase in migrants will risk further destabilizing the Continent’s already fraught economic and political environment.  The European Union will increase controls of its external borders and seek to improve the expulsion irregular migrants, but the introduction of mandatory quotas to more evenly distribute migrants across the bloc is improbable. This means the migration burden will continue to fall on Mediterranean states (who are already facing some of the deepest recessions due to COVID-19), as well as the bloc’s largest economies such as Germany. The Turkish-Greek border, in particular, will become especially volatile due to Ankara’s ongoing disputes with both Brussels and Athens.
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AssessmentsJun 16, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image depicting the global economy.
Trump’s War Against Taxing Tech Goes Global
With international negotiations stalled, many governments are choosing to unilaterally implement digital services taxes (DSTs). The United States -- which is home to the majority of tech giants that would be subject to such taxes, including Amazon, Apple and Google -- is using the threat of tariffs to both limit the global expansion of DSTs and push international negotiations toward the proposed reforms it backs. But with so many countries against Washington's preferred outcome, which critics say would allow U.S. tech companies to opt out of tax obligations in international markets, the risk of negotiations failing to reach an agreement this year is high, as is the risk of the United States implementing tariffs on its growing number of trade partners implementing DSTs. 
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AssessmentsMay 29, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A group of demonstrators wave the Palestinian flag on Dec. 31, 2009.
The Palestinians Move to Cut Security Ties With Israel: A Bluff or Something Bigger?
To protest Israel's aggressive annexation push, the Palestinian Authority is beginning to act on longstanding threats to cease coordination with Israeli authorities in the West Bank. On May 19, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declared an end to decades of security and intelligence cooperation with Israel and its main ally, the United States. The timing puts pressure on the Israeli government just before it's slated to begin annexing portions of the West Bank in July, and will raise the risk of violence and unrest in the area. 
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AssessmentsMay 8, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Pedestrians wearing masks walk down a street in Istanbul’s Eminonu district on May 5, 2020.
In Turkey, the AKP’s COVID-19 Strategy Could Be Its Downfall
Amid the escalating domestic and global fallout from the COVID-19 crisis, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) faces an unprecedented political and economic challenge with few viable ways out. To bolster what remains of its legitimacy ahead of 2023 elections, the ruling party will likely double down on nationalist and protectionist policies. But by failing to address the core issues plaguing Turkey’s economy, including high unemployment and growing debt, these short-term power grabs will also ultimately fail to secure the AKP’s place in power. And as a result, the country’s deepening financial crisis may see the early demise of not only Turkish businesses, but the AKP’s continued political dominance. 
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AssessmentsApr 29, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A pro-Brexit banner is seen outside the Houses of Parliament in London on Oct. 30. 2019.
The Scramble to Secure EU-U.K. Trade Ties Amid COVID-19
Time is running out for the European Union and the United Kingdom to reach a free trade agreement before Britain's scheduled exit from the EU single market on Jan. 1, 2021. The second round of negotiations, which ended on April 24, failed to produce significant progress. This leaves only two more rounds of scheduled talks before London has to decide whether to extend its participation in the single market in late June, lest risk having to trade with the European Union under costly World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffs starting next year. As both sides reckon with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis, a limited trade agreement that preserves the status quo of U.K.-EU trade relations as much as possible, or an extension of London's membership in the single market, will become increasingly likely in order to avoid a disruptive "hard" exit that neither Brussels nor Britain can afford. 
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On SecurityApr 23, 2020 | 11:00 GMT
Shoppers wearing face masks amid concerns over the COVID-19 novel coronavirus outbreak in a market in Seoul, South Korea, on March 14, 2020.
Learning How to Reopen a Country After COVID-19 Shutdowns
As governments around the world explore ways to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, easing the economic pain caused by lockdowns without causing even more damaging public health crises, they will be looking at the experience of other early outbreak countries to guide their actions. While best practices are emerging, recovery strategies will be tailored to the vulnerabilities of specific populations, and to governments' current capabilities. Whether the lessons of South Korea can be applied in the West remains to be seen.
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SnapshotsApr 13, 2020 | 17:17 GMT
Understanding the EU’s New COVID-19 Relief Efforts
The European Union is slowly making progress in its efforts to pump money into the Continent's pandemic-riddled economy. But political infighting within the bloc will nonetheless remain a challenge in mitigating the expected dire financial fallout from the COVID-19 crisis in the coming weeks and months.  As part of a new package of fiscal stimulus measures announced on April 9, the finance ministers of the eurozone have pledged to use the bloc's permanent bailout fund to grant loans to countries in distress. EU governments will be able to obtain loans representing up to 2 percent of their GDP from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will come with no strings attached as long as the money is used to support their healthcare systems. But just a day after the measures were announced, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said that Rome is not interested in the ESM loans and that his government
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AssessmentsApr 13, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A man wearing a protective mask walks in the empty square in front of a cathedral in Locri, Italy, on April 7, 2020.
Southern Europe’s COVID-19 Crisis Is Just Beginning
For many governments in Southern Europe, containing the COVID-19 contagion in the coming weeks may prove to be the easy part. After the immediate health crisis subsides in the region, much bigger economic and political troubles will quickly follow in the second half of the year. Countries including France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal will experience deep recessions and severe fiscal problems, which in some cases will be made worse by the return of political instability and the strengthening of nationalist opposition parties. 
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SITUATION REPORTApr 3, 2020 | 16:19 GMT
Europe: EU Finance Ministers to Discuss COVID-19 Bailout in April 7 Meeting 
The European Union is getting close to reaching an agreement to use the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to grant loans to countries hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as Italy and Spain, El Pais reported April 3 citing preparatory documents for the April 7 meeting of EU finance ministers.
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SnapshotsMar 31, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
COVID-19 Fuels Familiar Rifts Between EU Regional Blocs
The European Union is struggling to find a common approach to cope with the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, as the crisis fuels familiar clashes between northern and southern members of the eurozone. As a result, financial relief measures are largely taking place at the national level, once again highlighting the shortcomings of the European project.
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AssessmentsMar 30, 2020 | 17:21 GMT
An illustration of a microscope image of the new coronavirus and a surgical mask overlaying a 100 euro banknote.
In Europe, COVID-19 Extends the Tenure of Fragile Governments
The coronavirus outbreak is ravaging Europe’s economy by simultaneously bringing production, consumption, investment and trade to a near halt. But the pandemic is also helping freeze the Continent's political crises by forcing governments to unite against the escalating existential threat. Europe's political tumult, however, will return once the immediate contagion has abated. And several countries, in particular, will see a combination of financial and legislative fragility that will limit their ability to deal with the enduring economic repercussions.  
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Quarterly ForecastsMar 26, 2020 | 18:27 GMT
2020 Second-Quarter Forecast
Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.
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