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AssessmentsJul 15, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A view of Huawei’s U.K. headquarters in Reading, England.
In a Win for the U.S., the U.K. Moves to Oust Huawei From Its 5G Rollout
The United Kingdom's move to oust Chinese tech giant Huawei from its telecommunications networks in the coming years will not only impede the country's 5G rollout, but will further dim hopes for a U.K.-China trade deal that could help London expand its economic relationships beyond Europe post-Brexit. But the decision nonetheless marks a significant victory for the United States, which has been pressuring its European allies to purge Huawei from their 5G infrastructure -- especially if the British ban ends up being replicated elsewhere on the Continent.  
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AssessmentsJun 15, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Protesters in New York City kneel at an intersection to demand an end to systemic racism and police brutality on June 11, 2020.
U.S. Unrest Further Strains Trump’s Ties With Global Allies
Global U.S. allies are increasingly condemning the White House’s heavy-handed response to the nationwide protests following George Floyd’s death, suggesting a further erosion of U.S. leadership that could compromise Washington’s ability to find consensus on its controversial agenda of multilateral economic and security issues. Commentary from reputable news outlets and elite opinion-makers in Europe over the past week have questioned whether American internal polarization and discord would weaken its ability to function as a reliable ally. Increasingly irritated with the White House’s break from long-standing diplomatic norms, European governments appear to be translating opinion into policy action by challenging Trump’s proposed adjustments to the Group of Seven (G-7) summit and U.S. military posture in Europe.
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AssessmentsMar 13, 2020 | 20:51 GMT
Ensuring Business Continuity in a World of COVID-19
Many companies are responding to the COVID-19 pandemic by reducing or banning corporate travel and by asking some or all of their employees to work from home. While having employees work from home will help reduce the transmission of the virus in the workplace, it also brings with it some additional risks, and we'd like to examine a few of them. As the disruptions from responses to COVID-19 mount, it is important to consider the second- and third-order impacts of the extreme efforts being put in place to curb the spread.
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SITUATION REPORTFeb 14, 2020 | 19:11 GMT
U.S.: Cisco's CEO Rebuffs Idea for Taking an Ownership Stake in Ericsson or Nokia
Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins said his company would not invest in building infrastructure for 5G telecommunications networks and brushed off U.S. Attorney General William Barr's suggestion that U.S. companies should invest in or take control of European telecom equipment makers Ericsson and Nokia to counter Huawei's 5G influence, the Financial Times has reported.
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SnapshotsFeb 5, 2020 | 17:57 GMT
In Europe, Fear Could Damage the Economy As Much as Coronavirus
Fear is spreading faster than the coronavirus in Europe, leaving its governments struggling to find a balance between taking measures to prevent the expansion in their countries of the coronavirus outbreak that originated in China and avoiding a diplomatic conflict with Beijing triggered by acts of xenophobia against Chinese citizens.
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Global Security AnalystDec 11, 2019 | 21:52 GMT
Jeff Hawn
Jeff Hawn

Jeff Hawn is a global security analyst with Stratfor's Threat Lens. He monitors tactical security threats across Europe, Latin America and Eurasia, with a primary focus on anarchism, transnational organized crime, protest movements and right-wing extremism. Before joining Stratfor, Mr. Hawn worked as a federal telecom policy journalist in Washington. He has served as a guest lecturer for undergraduate and graduate-level classes on the topics of U.S.-Russian relations, terrorism, and open source intelligence. Mr. Hawn has written numerous published news and opinion articles on a variety of topics.
 
Mr. Hawn holds bachelor's and master's degrees in international relations from American University and a certificate in Russian studies from St. Petersburg State University in Russia. He has previously lived and worked in Russia and Europe, and traveled extensively in Asia.

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AssessmentsDec 4, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (R) speaks with French President Emmanuel Macron after signing agreements during a meeting on March 12, 2019, in Addis Ababa.
Why France Is Bullish on Business in Ethiopia
The Horn of Africa, with its booming economies and critical location that abuts key international shipping lanes, has long attracted outside interest -- as well as interminable conflicts. Yet as regional heavyweight Ethiopia opens its economy after decades of closed, state-centric development, new outside players are even more eager to do business there. Among that group is France, which is actively positioning its flagship companies to win big in the country in the years ahead. And luckily for Paris, Addis Ababa's long aversion to overdependence on any single outside power will boost French businesses as they seek to make inroads in a massive market of 110 million people.
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On SecurityDec 3, 2019 | 12:15 GMT
A corporate surveillance team examines security footage of an office entrance.
Your Company’s Data Could Be Most at Risk in the Places You Least Expect
When asked why he robbed banks by a reporter, the notorious robber Willie Sutton apocryphally retorted "because that's where the money is." Sutton later denied having made this remark. But regardless of who (or if) anyone said it, the quote nevertheless highlights a fundamental truth of crime: criminals will select a target that has the item(s) they wish to steal. This same principle also holds true for corporate espionage. Your company's secrets are a target wherever they reside, including (and perhaps especially) in locations assumed to be less at-risk. Because of this, it's important to understand that espionage is a truly global and multifaceted threat -- and requires security programs equally robust in nature and scope to protect sensitive information from malicious actors.
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Contributor PerspectivesNov 14, 2019 | 16:20 GMT
Konigsberg Cathedral and the Pregolya River are seen in this nighttime shot in Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad: Measuring Up Against Europe, Not Mainland Russia
Sandwiched between European Union members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Russia's westernmost outpost, has always been of great interest for many -- and not just because of its military significance and motley, centuries-old history. Indeed, the territory that is now Kaliningrad has been ruled at various times by the Teutonic Order, Prussia, imperialist Germany, the Soviets and, finally, Russia. For many who recall the Soviet past and live just a hop, skip and a jump away, the exclave is magnetic for its proximity and the preservation of the relics of the Soviet past. But once you're in Kaliningrad, "Russian" isn't quite the description that many want to hear, as it's a territory that looks more toward Europe than Russia.
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On GeopoliticsNov 1, 2019 | 09:30 GMT
The national flags of China and the United States.
By Mixing Tech and Human Rights Sanctions on China, the White House Crosses the Rubicon
Conspicuously absent from an emerging China-U.S. trade truce is the outstanding issue of U.S. export restrictions against Huawei. The omission reveals an uncomfortable and growing reality for U.S. tech firms: Politically convenient trade truces will come and go, but the strategic competition between the United States and China is deepening. Technology is a fundamental component of this broader rivalry, which also makes it a radioactive element in the trade talks and a prime target for China hawks advocating a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies. At this stage of the competition, national security, human rights and sovereignty are getting mashed together along with American public attitudes on how to contend with China when it comes to shaping U.S. policy. As a result, the political room to negotiate on an issue like Huawei is narrowing by the day, driving a more hard-line U.S. policy toward China overall.
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On GeopoliticsOct 18, 2019 | 09:00 GMT
This picture shows a Chinese demonstrator throwing back a tear gas bottle during an anti-Japan protest in September 2012.
China's Risky Return to Nationalism
Chinese nationalism is once again on the rise. From the public military spectacle showcased at the Oct. 1 National Day parade, to the recent slew of boycotts against foreign firms for their perceived support of the Hong Kong protests, a burst of patriotic fervor has increasingly made its way into China's state policies, public behaviors and business decisions. It's no coincidence that this chauvinist surge has occurred in tandem with Beijing's rising strategic and ideological clashes with the United States and its allies over democracy and human rights issues in places like Hong Kong and Tibet. Today, Chinese patriotism can be characterized as an uneasy relationship between the population's feelings of pride, hopes and anxiety about the country's future, as well as a deep ambivalence toward the West. And the Communist Party has expertly harnessed these feelings to reinforce its role as the guardian of the Chinese state, emboldened a renewed sense of foreign
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SnapshotsAug 7, 2019 | 21:33 GMT
China, India: Beijing Threatens 'Reverse Sanctions' if New Delhi Bans Huawei
China has threatened to place "reverse sanctions" on Indian companies operating in the country should New Delhi decide to block Chinese tech giant Huawei from its market, Reuters reported Aug. 6. According to the leak cited by Reuters, the Indian ambassador to China reportedly met with Chinese officials on July 10, where they discussed Beijing's concerns about the U.S. campaign to bar Huawei from the world's 5G infrastructure. During the meeting, Beijing also allegedly said that it hoped India would make its own "independent and objective decision." The threat could be a sign that China is willing to take a more aggressive stance against other countries blocking Huawei's involvement in their 5G networks at the behest of the United States.
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SITUATION REPORTJul 22, 2019 | 15:47 GMT
China, North Korea: Documents Outline Huawei's Involvement in Establishing North Korean 3G Network
Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei collaborated with state-owned Panda International Information Technology to illicitly establish and maintain a 3G wireless network in North Korea for an eight-year span, according to a July 22 report by The Washington Post, citing leaked documents from a former Huawei employee.
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SnapshotsJul 10, 2019 | 21:37 GMT
Russia: Moscow Divvies Up 5G and Quantum Development Among Its Proxies
Russia has pursued various efforts to strengthen its position in the face of sanctions and deteriorating relations with the West and its allies. One major element of this strategy has been reducing Moscow's economic reliance on the rest of the world. In tune with Russian goals of self-sustainability in the domains of internet and communication, Moscow is now also pushing for "technological sovereignty" as a way to reduce economic and intellectual dependencies.
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SITUATION REPORTJul 1, 2019 | 21:09 GMT
China: Beijing Loosens Restrictions on Foreign Investment
China announced a new list June 30 loosening restrictions on foreign investment in seven industries, Nikkei reported July 1, and its National Development and Reform Commission released a new version of its Encouraged Industries for Foreign Investment Catalogue, which specifies industries where foreign investment can receive preferential treatment.
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