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Iran's Potential Motives for Backing the Hamas Attack on Israel

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

AssessmentsOct 9, 2023 | 20:07 GMT

Iranians attend a gathering in Tehran on Oct. 7, 2023, to express their support for Palestinians after Hamas militants launched a deadly assault into Israel from the Gaza Strip.

While Iran was likely involved in planning Hamas' attack to a certain degree, Israel's retaliation will depend on Tehran's exact participation, opening the door to direct Israeli attacks against Iran's nuclear program that could, in turn, spur attacks by Iranian proxies against Israel and the U.S. interests in the region. According to an Oct. 8 report by The Wall Street Journal citing senior Hamas and Hezbollah members, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped plan the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel that killed more than 900 Israelis and resulted in the kidnapping of more than 100 people. The report said that beginning in August, senior IRGC officials -- including, at times, Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani and, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian -- met biweekly with Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hezbollah to plan the attack, which Iran allegedly gave its final approval for on Oct. 2. The

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Considers Increasing Oil Production Under Israel Normalization Deal

Situation ReportOct 9, 2023 | 15:39 GMT

Saudi Arabia is willing to increase oil production in 2024 if oil prices are too high in an effort to help seal a defense deal with the United States that is part of Israeli-Saudi normalization negotiations, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 6.

Situation ReportSep 19, 2023 | 15:53 GMT

Libya: Derna Experiences Communications Blackout Amid Faltering Disaster Relief

Several foreign-based Libyans reported that they lost all contact with journalists inside the city of Derna, Al Jazeera reported on Sept. 19, and on the same day, The Libya Observer reported that local authorities had ordered foreign journalists to leave the city.

Libya

Economics

With a Rare Earth Ban, Malaysia Is Poised to Join the Regional Resource Nationalism Trend

Social Issues

SnapshotsSep 18, 2023 | 19:35 GMT

Malaysia's recently announced plan to ban exports of rare earth elements is the latest example of the deepening regional trend of resource nationalism, and will negatively impact Malaysia's international partners in this sector while also affording Malaysia a strategic advantage in the marketplace.

Situation ReportSep 11, 2023 | 18:51 GMT

Malaysia: Prime Minister Announces Rare Earths Export Ban

Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the country will implement export bans on non-radioactive rare earths to ensure maximum returns, but he did not give a timeline for the bans, the New Straits Times reported on Sept. 11.

Malaysia

Economics

What to Make of Turkey's Move to Unblock Sweden's NATO Bid

AssessmentsJul 14, 2023 | 22:12 GMT

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023.

Turkey's eleventh-hour decision to back Sweden's accession to NATO reflects Ankara's balancing act between the East and the West, and was driven by Turkey's desire for Western economic and defense aid. After a year of delaying Sweden's accession to NATO, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on the eve of the July 11-12 NATO summit in Lithuania that he would back Stockholm joining the alliance. Then on July 12, Erdogan announced that the Turkish Parliament would not vote on the issue before the end of the summer recess in October, which suggests that there may still be some last-minute negotiations between Ankara and its Western partners.

SnapshotsJun 22, 2023 | 17:31 GMT

Ireland's foreign minister Micheal Martin (right), Irish Defence Forces chief Sean Clancy (left) and Brigadier General Tony Cudmore (center) meet Irish President Michael D. Higgins in Dublin, Ireland, on April 13, 2023.

Will Ireland Join NATO?

Despite an ongoing debate, Ireland is unlikely to join NATO anytime soon, but the country will probably adjust its security doctrine to bring it closer to the alliance and improve its protection from Russia's unconventional aggression. On June 22, Ireland began a four-day public consultation to review the country's foreign, security and defense policies, including the specific question of NATO membership. The Consultative Forum includes academics, researchers, politicians, representatives from EU member states, and members of the general public. Once the debate is over, the forum will issue a report for Ireland's foreign ministry, which will then decide whether to make recommendations to the broader Irish government.

Ireland

The Ukraine War Accelerates Russia's Decline as a Global Arms Exporter

AssessmentsJun 16, 2023 | 18:35 GMT

People look at a Russian T-90 tank in Prague, Czech Republic, on July 15, 2022, as part of a display of military equipment destroyed in the war in Ukraine.

Russia's dominance as a global arms exporter will likely continue to fall as a result of the Ukraine war, weakening a key element of Moscow's foreign policy and creating opportunities for other states to bolster their arms industries. The need to backfill its own losses in Ukraine, doubts about its weapons' performance, and declining Indian sales have seen Russia's arms exports plummet over the years. And recent signs suggest this trend will only continue. On June 5, India and the United States finalized a landmark roadmap for defense industry cooperation in the coming years that will significantly boost India's incentive to ramp up its domestic arms production and, in turn, further reduce its reliance on Russian weapons. This follows a report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) earlier this year that revealed Russia's share of global arms sales (in terms of actual deliveries of major arms as

Russia

China's Geographic Divides Will Compound Its Demographic Challenge

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2023 | 07:30 GMT

A Tibetan Buddhist woman stands on a hill overlooking the Labrang Monastery on March 2, 2018, in Gansu, China, the country's poorest province.

According to the World Bank's most recent data in 2021, China's per capita GDP remains low by industrialized standards at $12,600 (the United States, by contrast, sits at $69,30). But at the provincial level, China's per-capita GDP in its wealthiest provinces is consistently more than four times higher than that in its poorest provinces with significant variation in between. For example, according to government data, the country's richest province of Beijing had a per capita GDP of $28,511 in 2021, while its poorest province of Gansu had a per capita GDP of $6,361. These regional disparities could prevent China from fully transitioning to a high-income economy, because while dynamic eastern cities like Beijing may individually be able to escape the middle-income trap, China's heavily populated interior risks being left behind -- raising the potential for social turmoil that could impede the country's ability to overcome its demographic decline and ultimately realize

Economics

China: Cybersecurity Review of Micron's Products Signals Potential Shift in U.S.-China Tech War Strategy

Situation ReportApr 3, 2023 | 16:11 GMT

The Cyberspace Administration of China announced that it would open up a cybersecurity review of U.S. computer memory company Micron Technology, Inc.'s products in China, Reuters reported on March 31.

The U.S., Japan and the Netherlands Mull New Restrictions on China's Tech Sector

AssessmentsFeb 6, 2023 | 23:03 GMT

Workers at an ASML factory move parts of a chipmaking machine before shipment in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, in 2018.

While the United States is starting to have limited success in getting other countries to take a tougher line on China's tech sector, Washington will likely still make unilateral moves that go beyond any agreement it signs with other governments to target Chinese companies and further disrupt Beijing's tech ambitions. On Jan. 27, the United States reached a deal with the Netherlands and Japan to broaden the latter two countries' restrictions on exports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, including some of the immersion lithography machines produced by the Dutch firm ASML and Japanese firm Nikon, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is allegedly also considering cutting off Chinese tech giant Huawei from all U.S. exports and U.S.-made technology, and has stopped approving licenses for companies to export to the company, according to separate reports published on Jan. 30 by Bloomberg and

U.S., China: U.S. House Creates New Select Committee on China

Situation ReportJan 11, 2023 | 16:01 GMT

The U.S. House of Representatives voted to create the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, with 365 representatives voting for its creation and 65 voting against it, Reuters reported Jan. 10.

Russia, Belarus: Putin, Shoigu, Lavrov in Minsk for Integration Talks

Situation ReportDec 19, 2022 | 20:57 GMT

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other Russian government officials held integration talks with their Belarusian counterparts in Minsk, Reuters reported Dec. 19.

Situation ReportDec 14, 2022 | 20:29 GMT

U.S., China: Washington to Add YMTC and 30 Other Chinese Firms to Entity List

The U.S. Commerce Department will add Chinese memory chip maker Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp (YMTC) and more than 30 other Chinese companies to its Entity List as soon as this week, the Financial Times reported Dec. 13, citing three people familiar with the plan.

Considering a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan, Part 2

On GeopoliticsDec 5, 2022 | 16:00 GMT

Taiwanese soldiers disembark from amphibious assault vehicles on July 28, 2022, in Pingtung, Taiwan, during a military exercise simulating a Chinese invasion.

Looming over any Chinese calculations of a Taiwan invasion is the United States Indo-Pacific Command, which is composed of approximately 375,000 military and civilian personnel arrayed across the Pacific from Alaska to South Asia, with a notable arc of military alliances and partnerships enclosing nearly the whole of the Chinese coastline. For Beijing, this means speed is of the essence in any Taiwan invasion or military coercion scenario.

Taiwan

The Russian Threat to Subsea Cable Internet Infrastructure

AssessmentsDec 1, 2022 | 16:00 GMT

An underwater electric power cable beside Eva beach on the island of Hvar, Croatia.

Increased Russian naval activity in recent years around deep-sea cables, the critical infrastructure of the global internet, has heightened concerns that Russia may target them in an effort to disrupt Western daily life as the country seeks new means of coercion amid its war in Ukraine. Deep-sea or submarine cables are fiber optic cables that lay the foundation for global internet connectivity across the world. The cables, which are often thousands of miles/kilometers in length, transmit an estimated 95% of international data traffic from country to country by connecting two or more land points across bodies of water. The cables themselves are typically not much wider than a garden hose, and although they are covered in varying layers of copper, nylon and plastic for insulation, they are not heavily protected. Today, there are more than 400 subsea cables in operation that vary in length, with some shorter than 50 miles

Russia

Cyber