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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Situation ReportApr 12, 2024 | 17:15 GMT
Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN
On April 11, Mexico submitted formal proceedings against Ecuador in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), arguing that the latter "violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law" by raiding the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5, and therefore should be suspended from the United Nations, according to an April 11 press release from the International Court of Justice. 
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Ecuador
Mexico
Politics
SnapshotsApr 9, 2024 | 21:21 GMT
Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip.
The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy
Israel's military strategy in the Gaza Strip is more overtly shifting to targeted operations instead of large-scale operations, but Israel's apparent lack of a sustainable governing strategy for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence on the ground. On April 7, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew all but one brigade from Gaza. The same day, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the Palestinian militant group had been degraded to the point where it no longer ''poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.'' The withdrawal of IDF forces triggered a backlash from the country's right wing, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir threatening to collapse the government if there was no offensive on Rafah. In an effort to push back against the right-wing opposition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 8 that ''there is a date'' to attack Rafah and that ''it will happen.''
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Israel
Palestinian Territories
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Military & Security
AssessmentsApr 8, 2024 | 22:11 GMT
Police guard stand outside the Mexican embassy in Quito, Ecuador, on April 8, 2024.
Ecuador's Raid on the Mexican Embassy Risks Backfiring on Its President
Ecuador's raid on the Mexican embassy will increase tensions between the two countries, harm Ecuador's international reputation, create domestic political instability, increase policy uncertainty, and further destabilize Ecuador's security situation. Late in the evening on April 5, Ecuadorian police officers and military members raided the Mexican embassy in the capital Quito and arrested former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had taken refuge in the embassy since December to avoid arrest after being indicted on corruption charges. The raid occurred hours after the Mexican government under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador formally granted Glas asylum and requested that the Ecuadorian government give him safe passage to leave the country. According to Ecuador's foreign ministry, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa justified the raid by claiming that Glas was an ''imminent flight risk,'' and also argued that it was not legal to grant asylum to people convicted of crimes. In response to the
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Ecuador
Mexico
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese car manufacturer BYD's stacked electric vehicles wait to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Sept. 11, 2023.
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
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