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AssessmentsJul 1, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
An image depicts waving Chinese and Indian flags overlaying a map of the world.
In India, Anti-China Anger Will Bring Out Modi's Hawkish Side
A surge of anti-China sentiment among Indian lawmakers, business leaders and voters will prompt Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Bejing in the wake of the two countries' recent border clash. This could include a variety of actions ranging from diplomatic moves to economic and trade measures, as well as a continued military build-up against China, which will only further ratchet up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors. 
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On GeopoliticsMay 10, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
A mother takes photos with her baby under cherry blossoms in full bloom in Tokyo, Japan, on March 29, 2015.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
During the two months I recently spent away from work to fulfill my demographic duty, I found that most of my conversations with visitors followed the same pattern. The talk quickly turned from the standard cooing over my baby girl to an intensive debate over parental leave: how much time and flexibility to grant new parents in the workforce, how to reconcile career ambitions with the responsibilities of human procreation, how to compensate for the crazy cost of child care and how to boost birthrates. As a white-collar, taxpaying working mother in the United States, I had become one of the statistics I used to pore over as an analyst pondering the implications of aging and shrinking populations. But you don't have to be a parent -- or an analyst, for that matter -- to care about this stuff. In fact, a lot of the global angst today over stagnant economic
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GuidanceFeb 28, 2020 | 21:40 GMT
This photo shows a U.S. Chinook helicopter landing at a provincial capital in Afghanistan.
The U.S. and Taliban Prepare to Take a First Step Toward Peace in Afghanistan
After a weeklong reduction in violence in Afghanistan, the United States and the Taliban are set to sign a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar, on Feb. 29. Both sides hope the deal will be the first step toward ending U.S. involvement in the Afghan war and bringing peace to a land that has been in an almost constant state of war since 1979. Two of the most important points of the agreement include the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and a promise from the Taliban that it will not allow transnational militant groups to use the country as a base. Once it's signed, the next step will be talks among the Afghan government, the Taliban and other parties to establish a durable cease-fire and eventually end the country's war. But the road ahead will be strewn with pitfalls. 
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GuidanceFeb 19, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani presents the budget for the fiscal year that starts in late March 2020 on Dec. 8, 2019. Rouhani described it as a "budget of resistance" against crippling U.S. sanctions.
What Iran's Next Vote Means for Policy and the Presidency
On Feb. 21, Iran will hold the first round of parliamentary elections that could usher in the return of a more conservative legislature. With moderates and reformists taking a back seat, such an outcome would nudge Tehran toward more hard-line and hawkish foreign policies, leaving less room for negotiation with the West amid soaring U.S.-Iran tensions. Regardless of its next ideological make-up, however, Iran's incoming parliament will struggle more than ever to answer the economic and social demands of an increasingly desperate and cash-strapped electorate -- a reality that could have dire consequences for Tehran's political stability ahead of the country's crucial 2021 presidential election.
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On GeopoliticsJan 30, 2020 | 09:00 GMT
Construction of a second phase at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, part of the Iranian civilian nuclear program, continues.
As the U.S. Squeezes Iran, Europe Is Stuck in the Middle
Tensions between the United States and Iran will almost certainly escalate once again later this year as Iran's nuclear program continues to expand. Iran is likely to continue to be more aggressive on its nuclear policy because of U.S. sanctions despite EU efforts to dissuade Iran from doing so, and if the European Union does not proceed with the dispute resolution mechanism, then the United States may find a way to force sanctions to snap back on its own initiative. It will also exert diplomatic pressure -- backed by threats of punitive measures -- on the E3 to take a harder line against Iran. Iran, however, is unlikely to budge on the U.S. maximum pressure campaign before the November U.S. presidential election. And this creates the potential for a crisis involving a limited military confrontation. 
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Senior Analyst for Global EconomicsJan 17, 2020 | 13:08 GMT
Michael Monderer
Michael Monderer

Michael Monderer is Stratfor’s senior analyst for global economics focusing on the intersection between macroeconomics and geopolitics. Mr. Monderer covers issues related to country and political risk, including fiscal and monetary policies, balance of payments and capital flows, international debt, and currencies and exchange rates. Before joining Stratfor he was managing director at the G7 Group, Inc. and subsequently the G20 Group, LLC.  Previously, Mr. Monderer was U.S. Treasury Department's director for international debt policy and senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs, roles in which he negotiated international debt restructuring agreements with more than 60 countries.

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AssessmentsJan 3, 2020 | 10:00 GMT
This May 24, 2019, photograph shows garment workers making men's suits in a factory in Hanoi, Vietnam.
In Vietnam, Clouds Gather on the Horizon
Vietnam shone in the geopolitical spotlight in 2019, writing an economic success story amid global uncertainty over trade, mediating between the United States and North Korea and becoming a key security partner for powers near and far. But as Vietnam prepares for an all-important leadership transition in January 2021, jockeying for influence among domestic political players and major outside powers will test the country's political stability and strategic balance. Such a risk could complicate Vietnam's investment climate at a time when competition is heating up to be the most business-friendly destination in the region.
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AssessmentsDec 19, 2019 | 10:00 GMT
The scene at a meeting of Ivorian opposition parties on Sept. 14, 2019, in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.
In Ivory Coast, an Impending Election Portends Instability
When Ivorians go to the polls in October 2020, they won't just be electing a new president, they'll also be testing the country's political stability. During the last decade, Ivory Coast has enjoyed rapid economic growth, averaging 8 percent of gross domestic product per year, following deadly and destabilizing post-electoral violence in 2010. Yet while the growth has been impressive, political reconciliation has lagged. As political forces in the country's three main regions gear up for battle next year, the question of whether Ivory Coast can prevent its political ghosts from returning to haunt the country -- and opening the door for Sahel-based militants to make more inroads in the process -- will be paramount for both the nation's stability and foreign investors.
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AssessmentsNov 6, 2019 | 10:30 GMT
Supporters of the opposition Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F) party attend an anti-government rally in Islamabad on Nov. 5. JUI-F party leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman led thousands of supporters into the capital and vowed to continue his protest until Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan steps down.
Why the Protests in Pakistan Will Likely Fail to Oust Khan
Tens of thousands of opposition protesters stormed the Pakistani capital of Islamabad on Oct. 31, demanding that Prime Minister Imran Khan step down over allegations that his government won a rigged election in July 2018. The demonstrations were the latest of a growing surge of Pakistani unrest in response to the country's slowing economy and soaring inflation. But while the influx of political unrest and economic anger all but guarantee a rocky few months for the former cricketer-turned-prime minister, Khan's ties to the country's politically powerful army will ensure he's able to weather the storm.
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SITUATION REPORTNov 5, 2019 | 16:49 GMT
India: Opposition INC to Hold Nationwide Protests
The Indian National Congress (INC), the country's main opposition party, is planning nationwide protests from Nov. 5-15 to voice its dissatisfaction with India's cooling economic growth, unemployment and the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement, The Indian Express reported Nov. 5.
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