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SnapshotsDec 17, 2018 | 22:49 GMT
Mexico: A Budget Proposal's New Plan for Energy
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is working to limit outside influence and control over his country's oil and natural gas sector. According to an early draft of the 2019 budget, he will do this by cutting the budgets of the energy sector regulators empowered by energy reforms in 2013. The National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), the federal organization tasked with conducting bidding rounds on developing oil and natural gas resources, will have its budget cut by about $1.25 million, or nearly 10 percent of its 2018 budget. In addition, the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), which is tasked with managing permits and overseeing fuel transportation, fuel storage and electricity generation, will have its expenses budget cut by $1.6 million, or 11 percent of the commission's previous annual budget. As the president works to implement his austerity plan, many of the cuts come in the form of salary downgrades for officials earning
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AssessmentsOct 19, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador speaks to reporters in Mexico City on July 5, 2018, to announce that his pick for foreign minister is former Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard.
Mexico's President-Elect Continues to Refine His Energy Policies
There are just about six weeks to go until Mexico's new leader takes office, yet policy in one area that has attracted some of the hottest speculation, energy, remains very much a work in progress. Leftist President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador -- popularly known by the nickname AMLO -- rode a wave of public discontent with the incumbent administration and corruption to the presidency. On the campaign trail, however, Lopez Obrador also directed his ire at another bugbear: the country's 2013 energy reform. And now that Lopez Obrador is about to assume power, it's becoming clear that his administration is exploring options to craft an energy policy distinct from that of his predecessor, Enrique Pena Nieto. Although the incoming administration has leaked numerous potential policy choices to the press, just a few plausible options are emerging -- in part because the country's economic and fiscal realities have narrowed Lopez Obrador's
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AssessmentsAug 30, 2018 | 12:00 GMT
Mexican President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador speaks during a press conference to announce Marcelo Ebrard's appointment as foreign minister on July 5 in Mexico City.
Mexico's President-Elect Works to Solidify Power
With a transfer of government just over the horizon, Mexico's domestic political scene is in for some monumental changes. On Dec. 1, power will pass to President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and his political alliance. The coalition, led by the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), has never previously held the presidency but now controls it, as well as both houses of Congress. Despite the presence of ideologues within the incoming coalition, it will first focus its considerable resources on the more mundane task of cementing its power as the foremost political force in Mexico. But such outsized domestic power will ultimately give the new government a chance to turn its attention to matters of ideological interest -- and that could create difficulties for some investors, especially in the energy sector. In its quest to remake Mexico, the Lopez Obrador government may accordingly consider action that hurts the private sector as it
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AssessmentsAug 15, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
A Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) refinery processes petroleum in Tula, Mexico.
The Next Mexican President's Nationalist Approach to Energy
Despite his populist rhetoric, the next president of Mexico will largely play by the rules when it comes to the country's energy reforms. President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador takes office on Dec. 1, and he and his party may have the votes in Congress to challenge the 2013 constitutional changes that opened most of Mexico's energy sector to private investors. But any such move would meet strong resistance at home and from abroad, and it could also damage the country's economy. What the next administration will do is target the parts of the reform that it deems harmful to the people of Mexico, and some of those changes could complicate foreign investment.
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AssessmentsFeb 2, 2018 | 00:14 GMT
Major international oil companies know that the next Mexican president will be limited in any energy reform rollback.
Big Oil Sees Untapped Potential in Mexico
Despite the looming possibility of a populist presidential candidate winning the high office in Mexico, "Big Oil" is betting on the longevity of energy reform in the country. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who currently leads the presidential election polls, is promising to reverse aspects of the country's energy reforms. But from the perspective of the major international oil companies, a Lopez Obrador presidency would be little more than than a six-year nuisance, because he lacks the ability to rewrite the legal fundamentals in a way to last beyond his term.
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AssessmentsMay 11, 2017 | 09:15 GMT
The Shifting Tides of Energy Reform in Mexico and Brazil
Just a decade ago, Brazil had achieved such success liberalizing its oil and gas sector, an endeavor it launched in 1995, that it had become the gold standard for energy reform. Mexico, on the other hand, was struggling to push through measures that would enable its oil industry to keep growing. But in the ensuing years, the Brazilian government took a sharp turn toward resource nationalism as Mexico City made strides toward liberalizing its own energy sector. And the tables could turn yet again, perhaps as soon as 2018, when Mexico will hold its next presidential election. International oil companies have watched the tides of leftism, nationalism and protectionism ebb and flow in Latin America over the years, and this cycle will continue to play out in the region's leading oil producers.
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Annual ForecastsDec 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMT
The main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
2017 Annual Forecast
Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.
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AssessmentsOct 18, 2016 | 09:16 GMT
Mexico's Energy Reform Will Remain the Law of the Land
Mexico's Energy Reform Will Remain the Law of the Land
Left-wing Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears to have a reasonable chance of winning Mexico's 2018 presidential election. His National Regeneration Movement, aka Morena, is part of a crowded field along with the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and the National Action Party (PAN) in the race, where only a plurality of the vote is required to win. Lopez Obrador has been a vocal critic of Mexico's landmark 2013 energy reforms, which he has promised to overturn. Although his rhetoric has varied since the reforms were implemented, his statements suggest he would like to reverse Mexico's opening to private energy investment. Morena has also previously floated the idea of giving national oil company Petroleos Mexicanos the ability to assign fields without auctions and awarding Pemex a minimum stake in each new project.
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Quarterly ForecastsJul 8, 2015 | 09:30 GMT
Stratfor said at the beginning of 2015 that this would be the year when Europe would be knocked out of complacency. The third quarter is when the harsh reality of an unraveling eurozone confronts Berlin and the eurozone at large.
2015 Third-Quarter Forecast
Stratfor said at the beginning of 2015 that this would be the year when Europe would be knocked out of complacency. The third quarter is when the harsh reality of an unraveling eurozone confronts Berlin and the eurozone at large.
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AssessmentsFeb 16, 2015 | 10:12 GMT
Mexico is not water scarce when viewed as a whole. But unequal water distribution has led to significant water stress in several parts of the country. Supply has been further strained by poor infrastructure, pollution and overuse -- partly attributable to inefficient management and a growing population.
Industrial Expansion Will Strain Mexico's Water Resources
Much like its northern neighbor, Mexico is not water scarce when viewed as a whole. But unequal water distribution has led to significant water stress in several parts of the country. Supply has been further strained by poor infrastructure, pollution and overuse -- partly attributable to inefficient management and a growing population. Still, Mexico is positioned to experience significant economic growth because of its proximity to the United States and the likely expansion of its manufacturing sector as the country's population increases.
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