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AssessmentsApr 18, 2024 | 21:10 GMT
Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia.
Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine
Russia's ongoing economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025, though a decline in its oil revenues could combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term. In recent weeks, reports have emerged that Russia is experiencing delays in receiving payments for its oil and oil products because banks in numerous countries are concerned about being designated with U.S. secondary sanctions. The caution stemmed from a December 2023 executive order issued by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden that threatened to impose secondary sanctions on global financial institutions that help Russia circumvent primary sanctions, prompting foreign banks to start asking their clients for additional guarantees that sanctioned persons or entities are not the beneficiaries of a payment. The reports came amid increased Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure, as well as tightening sanctions on Russia's so-called ''dark fleet''
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Russia
Economics
Energy
Military & Security
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
SnapshotsApr 11, 2024 | 18:18 GMT
France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.
France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections
In France, bringing public finances back on a sustainable path following years of spending increases would require the government to adopt politically painful measures that may ultimately lead to a government collapse and early elections. On April 10, the French government unveiled new annual budgetary objectives through 2027 in response to a rapid deterioration of the country's public finances, raising its deficit target for 2024 to 5.1% of gross domestic product from the originally planned 4.4%. Meanwhile, the government maintained its goal of bringing the deficit below 3% in 2027. Achieving this target will require additional spending cuts worth 10 billion euros ($10.85 billion) this year, on top of the 10 billion euros of cuts already announced in February, and even stricter measures for the 2025 budget, with the Finance Ministry working on a further 20 billion euro cut for 2025 to bring the fiscal deficit back on a downward
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France
Economics
Politics
SnapshotsApr 5, 2024 | 16:06 GMT
A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones.
The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration
Despite a recent joint initiative to assess risks from artificial intelligence, the United States and the United Kingdom will maintain their pro-innovation approaches to AI that will keep regulations less robust than those in the European Union, although London's AI laws may grow stricter after the country's upcoming general election. The United States and the United Kingdom signed a first-of-its-kind agreement on AI safety on April 1, becoming the first countries to formally initiate bilateral cooperation on AI testing and risk assessments for emerging AI models. The agreement lays out how the two governments will share technical knowledge, information and talent on AI safety, as well as how they will evaluate private AI models via the United Kingdom's new AI Safety Institute, or AISI, and its U.S. counterpart of the same name. The bilateral agreement and the formation of these two institutes follow the November 2023 AI Safety Summit, which
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United States
Europe
United Kingdom
Cyber
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsApr 4, 2024 | 18:33 GMT
Chinese car manufacturer BYD's stacked electric vehicles wait to be loaded onto a ship at the international container terminal of Taicang Port at Suzhou Port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Sept. 11, 2023.
Chinese Electric Vehicles Prepare to Hit the Great Wall of Western Tariffs
The United States, the European Union and other Western countries will likely restrict the sale of Chinese cars and auto supplies in their domestic markets to reduce national security and economic risks. Over the last six months, the automotive industry -- particularly electric and connected vehicles -- has become the latest front between China and the West over strategic competition as Western governments look to restrict China's role in the sector. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived in China on April 3 for five days of face-to-face discussions with Chinese officials over several issues, including U.S. concerns about Chinese subsidies contributing to growing EV production capacity that could flood global markets. Yellen's visit comes after the Commerce Department on Feb. 29 began formulating new rules that aim to safeguard the information and communications technology and services supply chain for connected vehicles; the rules would broadly define connected vehicles and squarely
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United States
Australia
China
Europe
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Economics
Environment, Science & Technology
Military & Security
AssessmentsMar 28, 2024 | 21:32 GMT
A law enforcement officer patrols the scene of the terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, on March 23, 2024.
How Russia Will -- and Won't -- Respond to the Moscow Terror Attack
The Russian government will respond to the Moscow concert hall attack with concrete but limited actions that will not eliminate the threat of future terrorist attacks in the country, while the Kremlin will use the massacre to maintain and potentially increase Russia's options in pursuit of its war in Ukraine. Hours after armed assailants attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow, killing over 100 people, the Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed responsibility for the assault. Over the past week, however, numerous high-ranking Russian officials -- including President Vladimir Putin -- have alleged Ukraine was involved in the deadly terrorist attack, while downplaying the ISKP threat. On March 25, Putin said the attack fit ''quite logically into the intimidation campaigns that Kyiv is carrying out'' and that Russia was interested in finding who gave the order to conduct the attack, noting that it was the United States that was
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Russia
Military & Security
Politics
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024 | 00:04 GMT
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast
During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.
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AssessmentsMar 20, 2024 | 19:25 GMT
Malaysia's Place in the Race for Semiconductor Business
Malaysia's success in attracting investment for the final stages of the semiconductor production process will likely continue in the coming years, but its push to move up the value chain will prove challenging amid labor shortages and rising U.S.-China tensions. In recent months, industry leaders from the United States such as Intel, NVIDIA, Texas Instruments, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Micron and Hewlett Packard have committed billions of dollars to establishing or expanding their presence in Malaysia, many of them with a focus on the chip industry. The phenomenon goes beyond U.S companies, as Infineon (Germany), Bosch (Germany), AT&S (Austria), Ericsson (Sweden) and Simmtech (South Korea) are likewise rushing to the country, with much of this activity taking place in the past 18 months. In 2023, Malaysia became the top exporter of semiconductors to the United States. Chinese companies -- particularly those that make machinery for semiconductor manufacturing -- are also
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Malaysia
Environment, Science & Technology
AssessmentsMar 8, 2024 | 21:17 GMT
A digital illustration of the Bangladeshi flag.
As the Dust Settles at Home, Bangladesh Turns Its Attention to Foreign Policy
As socio-political turbulence dies down, Bangladesh will focus on deepening its economic and diplomatic ties with the United States, India, Japan and China, to facilitate investment and infrastructure agreements. Following weeks of social and political turbulence between late 2023 and early 2024, the degree of opposition protests and political unrest has stabilized in Bangladesh, enabling the government to pursue its foreign policy goals. In Bangladesh's Jan. 7 election, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina clinched her fourth consecutive term and fifth overall, with the ruling Awami League (AL) party securing nearly 75% of the seats. Despite initial concerns over potential post-election unrest, protests have waned following the detention and crackdown on numerous activists and leaders of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The electoral process was marred by protests and boycotts from the BNP, which accused the AL of rigging the vote. As a result, in the lead-up to the general election,
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United States
China
Japan
Bangladesh
India
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
AssessmentsMar 7, 2024 | 19:54 GMT
A digital illustration of the Australian and Vietnamese flags.
The Significance of Australia and Vietnam's Move to Upgrade Relations
The economic component of Vietnam and Australia's upgraded partnership will help Vietnam achieve its green energy ambitions and grant Australia greater access to one of Southeast Asia's fastest-growing markets, while the defense component portends increased bilateral cooperation on efforts aimed at improving maritime security in the region. Australia and Vietnam upgraded their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership, Vietnam's top-tier diplomatic designation, on March 7. The upgrade occurred after Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met bilaterally following an Australia-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, which ran from March 4-6. This development also follows a memorandum of understanding on energy and mineral cooperation that Australia and Vietnam signed at the same venue on March 6.
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Australia
Vietnam
Economics
Military & Security
Politics
SnapshotsMar 1, 2024 | 20:14 GMT
Doctors shout slogans during a rally to protest against the government's plan to raise the annual enrollment quota at medical schools, near the Presidential Office in Seoul on Feb. 25, 2024.
In South Korea, a Doctors' Strike Could Play in Yoon's Favor Ahead of Legislative Elections
In South Korea, growing frustration with an ongoing doctors' strike could bode well for President Yoon Suk-yeol's conservative party in April legislative elections, which may embolden his government to curb the power of unions at home, ramp up its deterrence strategy against North Korea, and even send weapons to Ukraine. As of March 1, around 9,000 trainee doctors in South Korea were still on strike despite warnings by the health ministry that they could be indicted or lose their certification if they didn't return to work by Feb. 29. In response to the Feb. 29 deadline passing, the ministry posted on its website a back-to-work mandate for 13 trainee doctors from 12 top medical institutions as a last step (akin to serving a legal notice) before punishment. For the past 10 days, thousands of South Korean doctors have been on strike to protest a government plan to increase the annual
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South Korea
Politics
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