Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Led by the same parties and sects, the new Cabinet risks falling victim to the same infighting that stymied its predecessors’ attempts at major reforms.

As the country edges closer to collapse, neither illicit Iranian fuel shipments nor a U.S. plan to revitalize the Arab Gas Pipeline will provide immediate relief.

Anger over last year’s disaster risks spiraling into bloody clashes between Lebanon’s ruling elite and the forces trying to oust them.

The greater protection given to citizens living in the capital could make Emiratis elsewhere more openly critical of their federal government.

Sectarian fighting risk spurring a cycle of deadly revenge attacks that the country’s cash-strapped government and military would struggle to control.

President Saied’s move to freeze parliament risks further destabilizing the already cash-strapped and COVID-ridden country.

Bringing Muscat’s fiscal house in order, however, will still require unpopular cuts to subsidies and public wages.

The cash-strapped militant group will increasingly rely on force to maintain its standing in the country, weakening Lebanon's already frail security situation.