The Chinese government is adopting more measured tactics to manage Hong Kong's legislative affairs, calibrating levers that enable it to control dissent without distressing the city's business communities.
With elections now delayed to 2021, the recent arrests of activists and a pro-democracy media tycoon in Hong Kong likely herald a new period of more aggressive crackdowns on figures Beijing perceives as threats to the city's stability.
The White House’s recent actions against China’s TikTok and WeChat apps, as well as officials involved in the Hong Kong crisis, show its threshold for action against Beijing is decreasing.
Aside from forcing companies to choose between Chinese and U.S. payment systems, Beijing's ability to reduce its sanctions exposure will be limited by the yuan's meager use in global markets.
The delay appears to be an attempt to exhaust the pro-democracy camp, though the constitutional crisis it's created may instead serve as a rallying point both domestically and internationally.
The STAR Market has so far doubled Nasdaq's 2020 gains, but Beijing's regulation will ultimately constrain its potential for growth.
Washington will need to revive domestic unity and engender global cooperation to effectively counter China, while Beijing will only need to maintain domestic unity and exploit global divisions.
By Rodger Baker
A brief delay may help the city's pro-Beijing camp maintain its legislative majority. But anything longer would risk reigniting the opposition.
Many Americans do not consider the United States an Arctic nation. But China has shown how a changed map can alter the national geographic perspective.
By Rodger Baker
In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast, Emily Donahue speaks with Sim Tack, senior global analyst for Stratfor, a RANE company. Sim has been tracking China's military buildup along its border with India.
