Riyadh has underestimated just how long Moscow can endure the pain of low oil prices, which could come to its own detriment and that of other oil producers amid growing coronavirus concerns.
By Greg Priddy
In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast, host Fred Burton speaks with Greg Priddy, who directs Stratfor's Global Energy and Middle East coverage, about the oil stand-off between Russia and Saudi Arabia as global demand falls due to the coronavirus pandemic.
With the coronavirus outbreak already taking its toll on oil prices, Saudi Arabia moved to cut prices even more after Russia refused to join an OPEC deal last week. The Russian economy will take a hit, but in this price war, Moscow may not be the first to surrender.
The global oil organization and its allies have failed to agree on how to cut back production, despite the potential for massive demand disruptions due to the coronavirus outbreak.
With the epidemic's long-term effects on demand still uncertain, Saudi Arabia probably won't convince Russia to agree to alter its cautious approach to production cuts.
By Greg Priddy
The winners of the March 2 vote will have the opportunity to use the country's newfound oil wealth to entrench their political future.
Russia will rein in Saudi desires for dramatic action to reduce production to counter the outbreak's effects on demand. But it will back short-term cuts of a limited duration.
By Greg Priddy
For eastern Libya's field marshal, control over energy is an ace up the sleeve to put pressure on his Tripoli-based foes.
Though oil markets have calmed since the U.S. strike against the Iranian general, the potential for a massive price move in the event of a major, lasting disruption remains.
By Greg Priddy
The oil market is poised to contain the price fallout from the assassination of a key Iranian commander, but perhaps only for the immediate future.
