A Crude Recovery

For eastern Libya's field marshal, control over energy is an ace up the sleeve to put pressure on his Tripoli-based foes.

The oil market is poised to contain the price fallout from the assassination of a key Iranian commander, but perhaps only for the immediate future.

The coalition says it will reduce output by 500,000 barrels per day for the first quarter of 2020, but the effective cut likely will be much less.

Even as the world heads to a global oil oversupply, the coalition will not trim production quotas. Instead, it'll count on stricter compliance with current targets to tighten output.

The government, expecting a windfall, has updated the terms of production-sharing contracts. But the move could dampen investment, leading to a falloff in revenue instead.

Even if Saudi Arabia does not hit its goals for restoring production capacity after last week's Iranian assault, it may be able to ensure production returns to pre-attack levels of 9.8 million bpd.

In the wake of an attack on a couple of oil tankers sailing near the Strait of Hormuz, a military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran might not be far away.

For the past 60 years, Algeria's national oil company has used its influence to limit the extent of energy reforms. Such political sway will continue to shield Sonatrach as Algeria charts a new political future.

Washington's new bid to bring Tehran's oil exports to a grinding halt could have far-reaching effects, from creating a tighter oil market to putting the U.S. on a potential collision course with Turkey and China.