The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The newly unveiled integration agreement between Moscow and Minsk creates a broad framework for the steady erosion of the latter’s sovereignty in the coming years.

This year’s expansive drills reflect Belarus’ growing reliance on Moscow and could preview armed confrontations with Western neighbors like Ukraine.

Ukraine’s focus on immediate threats to its economic and physical security will continue to clash with the U.S.’s desire to play the long game.

The deal is unlikely to quell concerns about Russia using the pipeline to weaken Ukraine’s position as a transit state for natural gas.

To secure its influence over the ex-Soviet state, Russia will work to undermine the new parliament’s attempts to boost cooperation with the West.

Any Western response to the plane hijacking incident is unlikely to stop Lukashenko from continuing his crackdown on dissent.

Both Kyiv and Moscow will use the escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine for their own political purposes, risking a calculated or unintended return to full confrontation.