Should hostile U.S.-Iran relations keep the prospect of a regional war alive, states along the Persian Gulf will be among the first to suffer the economic consequences, as well as potential physical attacks.
Recent U.S. actions against Iran are allowing Israel to ease off its own threats. But it's only a matter of time until a less hawkish U.S. strategy reinstates Israel’s place as the most likely actor to strike Tehran and potentially spur a regional conflict.
By Ryan Bohl
While the truce could put the Libyan National Army's push to seize the capital on hold, it raises the risk that oil exports will be used as a negotiating tool.
The assassination of Qassem Soleimani isn't distracting Tehran from its overarching goal -- maintaining its regional influence while forcing the U.S. to abandon its crippling sanctions.
The action represents a significant escalation by Tehran, increasing the likelihood of an American response.
The U.S. killed Qassem Soleimani in part to roll back Iranian influence in the Middle East. At least in Iraq, the decision is poised to do the opposite.
Regardless of how many more rounds of elections and caretaker governments Israel might endure in 2020, its military will continue to take strident action against security threats posed by Iran and its nuclear program.
With Aden now under separatists' control, the latest flare-up of north-south violence risks distracting from the anti-Houthi front in Yemen, while fueling intra-southern conflict and jihadist attacks.
Major Lebanese patrons like Iran and its top rivals could be forced to update their positions if the country's escalating unrest succeeds in forcing real political change.