Russia's Internal Struggle

The move will further inflame tensions amid the recent military escalation in eastern Ukraine and deteriorating health of jailed Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny.

While the Kremlin would likely face near-term unrest and additional sanctions, the outcome of September's parliamentary elections and Putin's grip on power would remain unchanged.

While unlikely to outright ban sites like Facebook and Twitter, Russian authorities will seek to more heavily censor their content ahead of September elections.

Sanctions targeting the Kremlin’s economic interests could result in a range of retaliatory actions, including import bans and cyberattacks.

The growing number of military and private actors in the increasingly accessible region is raising the risk of miscommunication or miscalculation.

The opposition leader's jailing will trigger swift and strong public rebukes from the U.S. and Europe. But penalties that actually change the Kremlin’s behavior are unlikely.

The Kremlin is using all levers of state power to ensure Putin’s policies and worldview endure, even after his eventual departure.

Preserving the nuclear arms treaty will give Biden space to crack down on Moscow’s antagonistic behavior in other areas.