Assessments

United States

Iran

China

Myanmar

Philippines

United Kingdom

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head during funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leade, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 5 in Tehran, Iran.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, ASEAN and Major Power Foreign Ministers Meet

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Vessels are seen anchored along the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026. 

By demanding investment pledges from Gulf states after threatening a 20% toll, the White House is signaling its defense of global trade routes is now a transactional service rather than a core strategic commitment.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Guyana

Peru

Venezuela

Pilgrims with flags from different countries gather at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 23, 2013, as they wait for the official opening of the Catholic Church's World Youth Day, which will be celebrated with a holy Mass. 

Economics

Energy

As many South American countries embrace right-leaning governments, their policies will increasingly align with those of the U.S. Trump administration, opening them to increased security cooperation, although economic integration remains unlikely.

What South America's Rightward Political Shift Means for U.S. Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 16, 2026

India

The U.S. and Indian flags adorn the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 20, 2023.

While the ban could prompt the U.S. to lower its proposed Section 301 tariff on India from 12.5% to 10%, unresolved concerns over manufacturing overcapacity will sustain the risk of broader, sector-specific tariffs.

India Imposes Forced Labor Import Ban to Reduce U.S. Tariff Exposure

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Podcasts

Which Sub-Saharan countries face the highest risk of protests and unrest in the coming months?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe

Albania

Montenegro

Ukraine

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Snapshots

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Israel

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Russia

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Andy Burnham delivers a speech on June 29, 2026, in Manchester, England. 

As prime minister, Andy Burnham will likely maintain continuity on fiscal, foreign and defense policies within tight budget and market constraints, along with an incremental approach to EU relations.

Previewing Burnham's Premiership in the U.K.

Latest

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

A 20 euro note.

The European Union is likely to advance banking reforms in 2027 that reduce internal barriers to cross-border banking, boosting its financial competitiveness by freeing up funds tied up in savings, but will stop short of significantly greater fiscal and financial risk sharing.

Brussels Seeks To Boost the EU Banking Sector's Competitiveness

Bangladesh

Then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrives for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 5, 2019.

The former leader's pledged return from exile risks triggering violent unrest and would likely do little to bolster her party's near-term political prospects, but it could eventually help ease tensions with India.

What Sheikh Hasina's Return Would Mean for Bangladesh's Political Future

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Vietnam

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

EU flags are displayed in the EU Council headquarters on July 9, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.

While the European Union is unlikely to adopt the Spanish plan, it could drive an incremental expansion of common borrowing for strategic priorities like defense and industrial competitiveness.


Spain Broaches EU Taboo With Common Debt Proposal

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

Sudan

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

The Lebanese Armed Forces began deploying to Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh in southern Lebanon on July 21 following Israel's withdrawal from the town as part of a U.S.-brokered "pilot zone program," Axios reported the same day.

Lebanon: U.S.-Brokered Deal Yields Partial Israeli Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi would replace Lt. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 21.

Ukraine: Zelensky Replaces Syrskyi With Drapatyi, Offers Fedorov Technology Role

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signed a joint declaration establishing a strategic bilateral agenda and a separate agreement creating an Azerbaijan-Germany Business Council in Berlin, AZERTAC reported on July 21. 

Azerbaijan, Germany: Strategic Agenda Will Deepen Energy and Transit Ties

Addressing a parliamentary meeting of lawmakers from the country's ruling coalition, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a "foolproof" public examination system and said authorities have taken "strict steps" to prevent future exam leaks, according to the parliamentary affairs minister, The Indian Express reported on July 21.

India: Modi Calls for Testing System Reform as Protesters Pledge Further Demonstrations

Cuba

The U.S. State Department issued a 100-page report on July 20 linking Cuba to various protests in the United States over the past decades, including demonstrations connected to the Black Panther Party (1966-82), unrest related to the murder of George Floyd in 2020, and current protests by antifa groups and those opposing Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests.

U.S, Cuba: State Department Links Cuba to Far-Left Extremism

Indonesia

Indonesia is provisionally reducing the budget for President Prabowo Subianto's flagship free school meals program to $12.8 billion, marking the second budget cut since the program's initial $18.7 billion allocation, with further cuts still possible, Reuters reported on July 21. 

Indonesia: Free Meals Cut Highlights Fiscal Tightness, Limits of Spending Agenda

Turkey

Ozgur Ozel, the ousted leader of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, announced that he was resigning from the party and would form a new one after weeks of internal disputes, Reuters reported on July 21.

Turkey: Ousted Opposition Leader Resigns, Set To Form New Political Party

Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni met with Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, as regional negotiators have expanded their efforts to reach a temporary truce to de-escalate the U.S.-Iran conflict, AP reported on July 21.

U.S., Iran: Mediation Efforts Continue as U.S.-Iran Exchange Attacks

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's opposition coalition C64 announced that it was postponing its planned July 22 demonstration in Kinshasa amid reports of talks with the government, RFI reported on July 20.

Congo: Opposition Coalition Postpones Protest Amid Dialogue Consultations

Science & Technology

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

New British Prime Minister Andy Burnham named former Defense Secretary John Healey as Treasury chief, with figures previously considered favorites, such as Shabana Mahmood and Ed Miliband, named to the Home and Foreign Offices, respectively, while Wes Streeting became defense secretary, Reuters reported on July 20.

U.K.: New Prime Minister Unveils Cabinet and First Cost-of-Living Measures

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Lebanon: U.S.-Brokered Deal Yields Partial Israeli Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon

Ukraine: Zelensky Replaces Syrskyi With Drapatyi, Offers Fedorov Technology Role

Azerbaijan, Germany: Strategic Agenda Will Deepen Energy and Transit Ties

India: Modi Calls for Testing System Reform as Protesters Pledge Further Demonstrations

U.S, Cuba: State Department Links Cuba to Far-Left Extremism

Indonesia: Free Meals Cut Highlights Fiscal Tightness, Limits of Spending Agenda

Turkey: Ousted Opposition Leader Resigns, Set To Form New Political Party

U.S., Iran: Mediation Efforts Continue as U.S.-Iran Exchange Attacks

Congo: Opposition Coalition Postpones Protest Amid Dialogue Consultations

U.K.: New Prime Minister Unveils Cabinet and First Cost-of-Living Measures

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