Assessments

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Social Issues

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Canada

Mexico

United States

Iran

Japan

United Kingdom

India

Cargo ships June 19 off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal in Sharjah emirate, along the Gulf of Oman.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Takaichi Goes to India, an Unsteady U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Israel

Lebanon

Oman

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

Columns

On Geopolitics

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

Bahrain

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C, top) meets with GCC foreign ministers during his visit to the Middle East to discuss with Arab Gulf allies the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran on June 25 in Manama.

While Qatar and Saudi Arabia explore restoring trade ties with Iran, the United Arab Emirates is aligning its security with Israel and the United States.

Divergent Approaches to Iran Expose Gulf Arab Splits

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 25, 2026

Colombia

Venezuela

China

Abelardo de la Espriella, who has since been declared president-elect, waves to supporters after casting his vote during the runoff election on June 21, 2026, in Barranquilla, Colombia. 

De la Espriella's administration will reverse many of the outgoing government's security, economic and social policies, restoring a hard-line anti-crime approach and deepening ties with the United States.

What de la Espriella's Victory Means for Colombia

Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez speaks with journalists following a session at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the Essequibo region in The Hague on May 11. 

Risk-tolerant investors stand to benefit from unprecedented regulatory changes and direct resource access, but face the risk of reforms being unwound by a future Venezuelan government.


Venezuela's Outlook and Implications for Strategic Sectors, 6 Months After Maduro's Capture

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

Latest

Computer chips are seen on top of the U.S. and Chinese flags.

The Trump administration's recent shift to a more restrictive, ad-hoc licensing regime for frontier AI models risks slowing U.S. innovation and giving Chinese rivals a competitive advantage.

From Laissez-Faire to Licensing: Understanding Trump's Evolving AI Strategy

U.S.-China Relations

Sudan

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the United States has decided not to renew its trade deal with Canada and Mexico for now and will instead conduct annual reviews of the pact, formally known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Bloomberg reported July 1.

U.S., Canada, Mexico: Washington Decides Not To Renew USMCA for Now

In a June 26 letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ukraine argued that it could legally attack Russian shadow fleet vessels, contending tankers transporting Russian oil and gas should be treated as ordinary commercial ships, given their role in generating revenue for Russia's war effort, the Financial Times reported June 30.

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa selected 70 parliamentary legislators -- including 15 women and some representatives of minority groups -- ahead of the parliament's first session on July 6, AP reported July 1.

Syria: Al-Sharaa Appoints 70 Lawmakers to Parliament

Science & Technology

Claude AI developer Anthropic announced June 30 that it would restore access to Claude Fable 5 on July 1 after the U.S. Commerce Secretary announced that the government had lifted export controls on Fable 5 and Mythos 5, the more advanced cybersecurity-focused AI model also blocked last month.

U.S.: Anthropic To Restore Access To Fable 5 AI Model After Lifting of Export Controls

Tens of thousands of protesters marched in anti-migration demonstrations June 30 across South Africa, following an informal deadline set by anti-immigration groups for employers to terminate the employment of undocumented foreign nationals by that date, RFI reported July 1.

South Africa: Migrant Homes and Businesses Targeted in Anti-Migration Marches, Over 900 Arrested

U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a willingness to allow U.S.-Iran negotiations to extend beyond the official Aug. 18 deadline, despite being briefed on escalatory military operations against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported June 30.

U.S., Iran: Trump Indicates Preference for Diplomacy Despite Briefing on Military Options

Taiwan

The deputy director-general of Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA), Hsieh Ching-chin, told lawmakers on July 1 that Taiwanese ships should ignore boarding and inspection requests from Chinese vessels.

Taiwan: Coast Guard Official Pledges Intervention With Chinese Vessels, Raising Escalation Risks 

Singapore

Singaporean authorities filed new fraud and money laundering charges as part of a broader probe into alleged false claims about the final users of servers that may contain Nvidia chips subject to U.S. export controls aimed at limiting Chinese access to advanced artificial intelligence technology, Channel News Asia reported July 1.

Singapore: Enforcement Action Highlights AI Chip Transshipment Risk

Argentina

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

The South American trade bloc Mercosur -- which includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay -- launched negotiations with Japan on June 30 for an economic partnership agreement, Reuters reported.

Latin America: Mercosur Bloc Launches Trade Talks With Japan

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel movement has increased its total manpower to around 30,000 troops in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while Rwanda has deployed 14,000 and 18,000 more military personnel to the area, Bloomberg reported June 30, citing U.N. findings.

Congo: M23 Amasses 30,000 Troops in the East, Consolidates Parallel Administration 

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Canada, Mexico: Washington Decides Not To Renew USMCA for Now

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Syria: Al-Sharaa Appoints 70 Lawmakers to Parliament

U.S.: Anthropic To Restore Access To Fable 5 AI Model After Lifting of Export Controls

South Africa: Migrant Homes and Businesses Targeted in Anti-Migration Marches, Over 900 Arrested

U.S., Iran: Trump Indicates Preference for Diplomacy Despite Briefing on Military Options

Taiwan: Coast Guard Official Pledges Intervention With Chinese Vessels, Raising Escalation Risks

Singapore: Enforcement Action Highlights AI Chip Transshipment Risk

Latin America: Mercosur Bloc Launches Trade Talks With Japan

Congo: M23 Amasses 30,000 Troops in the East, Consolidates Parallel Administration

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