Assessments

Syria

Turkey

Japan

France

Tajikistan

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Russia

The assembly hall of the Syrian parliament Oct. 1 in Damascus. An Oct. 5 indirect election for parliament will mark the first time Syrians have had an electoral say in their government since the 1960s.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Election, Syria's Political Transition

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 2, 2025

Snapshots

Europe

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu arrives to hold a press conference in Chisinau on Sept. 29, 2025, after her pro-EU party secured a victory in parliamentary elections. 

Despite a clear win for the pro-EU Action and Solidarity in the Sept. 28 parliamentary election, Moldova's path to EU accession remains fraught with obstacles, including the unresolved Transdniestria conflict, entrenched corruption and the need for politically sensitive judicial reforms.

Even With PAS Victory, Moldova's Road to EU Membership Remains Long

The candidates running in the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- (from left to right) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi -- pose after delivering speeches at the kick-off of the campaign in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2025. 

Economics

Military & Security

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.

Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Iran

China

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

U.S.-China Relations

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Denmark

Ukraine

Representatives are pictured ahead of a working session during the informal EU foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Aug. 30, 2025.

The Weekly Rundown: EU Leaders Meet in Denmark, Moldova Elects a New Parliament

Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025. 

Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions before the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile.

The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement

Australia

United Kingdom

Dignitaries attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the question of Palestinian statehood, during the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2025, in New York City. 

Western countries' growing recognition of Palestinian statehood is largely symbolic and will likely galvanize Israel's push for West Bank annexation, risking further Israeli diplomatic isolation abroad and sporadic violence at home.

The West's Growing Support for Palestinian Statehood Will Have Limited Concrete Impacts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

While countries will likely increasingly pursue trade deals with digital clauses, the slow pace of regulatory development, coupled with a global tendency toward protectionism, will impede the push toward building out more streamlined digital economy agreements.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Role of Digital Trade in Modern Free Trade Agreements

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to U.S. and Qatari military personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.

The U.S. president's pledge to defend Qatar may deter future Israeli attacks, but it is unlikely to deter Iranian aggression or allay Gulf states' greater concerns about Washington's commitment to their security.

Trump's Security Guarantees for Qatar Unlikely To Offer Enough Reassurance

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

India

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

Poland

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

Hamas agreed to certain parts of the U.S.-backed proposal to end the war with Israel in Gaza, including the release of all Israeli hostages and the exchange of prisoners, as well as the formation of a post-Hamas government for Gaza, BBC reported on Oct. 3. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

At the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia has "no aggressive intentions" toward NATO, dismissing Western concerns as "hysteria" and telling Europeans to "calm down, sleep tight, and deal with your own issues," The New York Times reported on Oct. 2.

Russia: Putin Denies NATO Threat While Drones Test Europe's Defenses

Pakistan

The first round of talks on Oct. 2 between a Pakistani government delegation and protesters in Pakistan-administered Kashmir failed to break an impasse over protesters' demands for authorities to limit local officials' benefits, which many residents allege are being provided at the expense of local services, Arab News Pakistan reported on Oct. 3.

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

Myanmar

Myanmar's military claimed the full recapture of Kyaukme, a key district capital in Shan state along National Highway 3, the main trade route linking Mandalay to China, AP reported on Oct. 2. 

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu pledged not to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution, a mechanism that allows the government to adopt legislation without parliamentary approval, to pass the 2026 budget, Le Figaro reported on Oct. 3.

France: Prime Minister Rules Out Bypassing Parliament in Passing 2026 Budget

Afghanistan

Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network was restored the evening of Oct. 1, easing nationwide disruptions to internet, phone and other services that had resulted from the Taliban's shutdown of the network on Sept. 29, Tolo News has reported.

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

Science & Technology

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

The United States agreed to give Ukraine targeting data to help guide long-range missile strikes against Russian energy sites, The Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 1.

Ukraine: U.S. Expands Intelligence Support for Strikes Inside Russia

Kazakhstan

Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov announced the opening of an artificial intelligence lab in Astana, Kazakhstan, to develop new AI services for the app's more than one billion users, KazTAG reported on Oct. 2. 

Kazakhstan: Telegram Opens AI Lab in Astana as Oil Wealth Fuels AI Ambitions

Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape announced that his Cabinet had approved a mutual defense treaty with Australia, pending parliamentary approval, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Signed, Leaves Door Open to China

Cambodia

Thailand

State-owned Khmer Times stated on Oct. 2 that Cambodian officials had invited Thai forces to hold three Regional Border Committee (RBC) meetings between local border defense groups, scheduled for Oct. 4-6, Oct. 7-9, and Oct. 10-12 -- all to be held in Cambodian provinces. The report did not indicate any response from Thai authorities.

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Meetings Proposed Amid Eviction Deadlines

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Announces Partial Agreement to U.S.-Backed Peace Proposal

Russia: Putin Denies NATO Threat While Drones Test Europe's Defenses

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

France: Prime Minister Rules Out Bypassing Parliament in Passing 2026 Budget

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

Ukraine: U.S. Expands Intelligence Support for Strikes Inside Russia

Kazakhstan: Telegram Opens AI Lab in Astana as Oil Wealth Fuels AI Ambitions

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Signed, Leaves Door Open to China

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Meetings Proposed Amid Eviction Deadlines

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