Assessments

United States

China

A 3D modeled town in the shape of the Chinese flag.

Economics

Politics

Trade tensions will exacerbate China's excess savings problems, but the economic situation will remain manageable

Beijing Grapples With Deflation, Overinvestment as Tariff Pressures Mount

U.S.-China Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 7, 2025

Israel

Syria

Turkey

The new flag of Syria's interim government.

Military & Security

Parliamentary elections in September will cement Syrian leaders' power at the expense of many minority groups, deepening national fragmentation and heightening risks of violent unrest, particularly amid Israeli military intervention.

In Syria, Parliamentary Elections Will Deepen Political and Sectarian Divides

Palestinian Territories

Israeli troops are seen deployed at the border with the Gaza Strip on July 23, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Reoccupying the Strip would be expensive and stir controversy at home and abroad, making the strategy politically difficult to sustain in the likely case that a new Israeli government is elected next year. 

The Fallout From an Israeli Reoccupation of Gaza

Europe

Employees work at a production line as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius attend the groundbreaking ceremony for a new munitions factory of German defense contractor Rheinmetall on Feb. 12, 2024, in Unterluess, Germany.

The Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan facility will enable joint investment in critical capabilities -- such as missile defense, drones and military mobility -- while promoting joint procurement and cross-border collaboration.

How the EU's SAFE Loans Package Will Reshape Europe's Defense Industry

Germany

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Russia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

The flag of Afghanistan sits on the Afghan embassy in Moscow on July 4, 2025. 

As Afghanistan's neighbors deepen ties with the Taliban and Western states remain cautious, a widening diplomatic divide threatens to complicate efforts to address the country's worsening crises and regional security risks.

The Growing International Divide Over Taliban Ties Will Risk Regional Stability

The Geopolitics of Trade

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Protectionist and security-driven data regulations are impeding digital and physical trade, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Diverging Digital Governance Threatens Data Flows

Cambodia

Thailand

Poland

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in the Oval Office of the White House on July 22, 2025. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Last-Minute U.S. Trade Talks, a New Polish President

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Norway

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Snapshots

Maldives

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (center) speaks during a press conference next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet (left) and Thailand's acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai (right) in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on July 28, 2025. 

While the truce may hold in the short to medium term, unresolved disputes and political pressures sustain the risk of future clashes, with the next round likely to be even deadlier.

Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

Latest

An oil tanker train passes near a refinery in Guwahati, India, on March 30, 2023. 

Energy

For now, India will likely keep importing cheap Russian oil in the hopes it can soon secure tariff relief, either directly via a U.S. trade deal or indirectly via a breakthrough in U.S.-Russia talks on Ukraine.

Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?

Lebanon

Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem speaks from a stage surrounded by flags in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on July 6, 2025. 

Lebanon's new push to disarm Hezbollah will prove challenging amid U.S. pressure, Israel's military assertiveness and Hezbollah's hardening stance, potentially leading to government instability and increased violence.

Can Lebanon Navigate the Minefield of Disarming Hezbollah?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Supporters of Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik watch him speak in Banja Luka, Republika Srpska, on Feb. 26, 2025. 

Republika Srpska's separatist leader will likely defy a ruling to step down, causing institutional paralysis and Western backlash, but early elections or a unilateral declaration of independence are also possible.

The Potential Outcomes of Bosnia's Emerging Political Crisis

Bolivia

Bolivia's presidential candidates participate in a presidential debate in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, on Aug. 1, 2025.

Bolivia heads toward a political shift as voters prepare to oust the ruling left-wing MAS party amid economic woes, with right-wing candidates leading the polls ahead of pivotal August elections.

Economic Crisis Fuels Political Shakeup in Bolivia

Morocco

A researcher from the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA) examines crops in a cultivated field in Morocco on April 18, 2024.

Despite a temporary boost in crop yields from spring rainfall, Morocco's persistent drought and structural water shortages continue to threaten its agricultural sector, food security and economic stability ahead of the 2026 elections.

Rainfall Boosts Morocco's Crop Yields, But Long-Term Water Crisis Persists

Cote d'Ivoire

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

Taiwan

A voter leaves a booth during voting for the recall election at a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 26, 2025. 

Its victory in the recall votes will embolden the opposition KMT to press on with controversial reforms and defense spending cuts, but it will also help prevent a near-term escalation of cross-strait tensions.

A Failed Recall Emboldens Taiwan's Opposition

The EU flag is seen on stacked cargo containers.

The framework deal avoids an escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs that would have strained both economies, but various unresolved issues could still reignite transatlantic trade tensions in the future.

New U.S.-EU Deal Averts Full-Blown Trade War -- For Now

Egypt

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Iran

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iraq

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is expected to travel to the United States around Aug. 25 to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump over three to four days, the  Korean Broadcasting System reported on Aug. 7.

South Korea, U.S.: Summit Security Talks May Expose Rift in Alliance

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Tigray's parties of Arena Tigray, Semeret and National Congress of Great Tigray -- known as Baytona -- confirmed comments by Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, the former vice president of Tigray's interim regional administration, that they had formed an alliance aimed at advancing political change in the region, Addis Standard reported on Aug. 7.

Ethiopia: Tigrayan Parties Form Anti-TPLF Coalition

Mozambique

French multinational energy company TotalEnergies resumed "major works" on its $20 billion Mozambique LNG project, with a "senior source" close to the project acknowledging that the company was now "beyond preparatory works," Zitamar News reported on Aug. 6.

Mozambique: 'Major Works' on Mozambique LNG Reportedly Resume Prior to Lifting of Force Majeure

Cambodia and Thailand agreed to deploy observers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to inspect their shared border and monitor the terms of their July 29 ceasefire, Reuters reported on Aug. 7.

Thailand, Cambodia: ASEAN Observers To Monitor Border Ceasefire

The contents of the joint South Korea-U.S. Ulchi Freedom Shield military drills, their largest annual joint drills scheduled for Aug. 18-28, will be curtailed, with around 40 field training exercises delayed until September, according to a spokesperson for the South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff on Aug. 7.

South Korea, U.S.: Adjusted Drills Risk Accelerating Thorny Defense Talks

The U.S. federal register released on Aug. 6 noted that the new 15% tariff on Japanese goods would come on top of existing tariffs for all Japanese imports, contrasting with Tokyo's understanding that Japanese exports to the United States with a preexisting tariff of 15% or higher would be exempted. 

Japan, U.S.: Trade Deal Uncertainty Endangers Ishiba and South Korea Deal

Science & Technology

A German auction for offshore wind sites ended without any awards on Aug. 1, Germany's Federal Network Agency announced Aug. 6.

Germany: Offshore Wind Auction Fails To Attract Bidders for the First Time as Industry Confronts Slowdown

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Argentina

Argentina's Chamber of Deputies voted down several decrees President Javier Milei had issued to reform or eliminate bureaucratic bodies, and reactivated a commission to investigate a crypto scandal involving Milei, Clarin reported Aug. 7. 

Argentina: Government's Repeated Defeats in Congress to Fuel Uncertainty Ahead of October Election

U.S. President Donald Trump said he would place a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors but would exempt tech companies that have committed to building manufacturing facilities in the United States, specifically mentioning Apple, Politico reported on Aug. 6.

U.S.: Trump's 100% Semiconductor Tariff To Further Incentivize Manufacturing Offshoring

Russian President Vladimir Putin met for three hours with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow to discuss a potential Ukraine peace deal, just days ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for Russia to end the war or face sanctions, Reuters reported on Aug. 6.

Russia, U.S.: Putin-Witkoff Meeting Signals Diplomacy To Secure Sanctions Off-Ramp From U.S.

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Will Trump's Tariffs Deter India From Buying Russian Oil?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

South Korea, U.S.: Summit Security Talks May Expose Rift in Alliance

Ethiopia: Tigrayan Parties Form Anti-TPLF Coalition

Mozambique: 'Major Works' on Mozambique LNG Reportedly Resume Prior to Lifting of Force Majeure

Thailand, Cambodia: ASEAN Observers To Monitor Border Ceasefire

South Korea, U.S.: Adjusted Drills Risk Accelerating Thorny Defense Talks

Japan, U.S.: Trade Deal Uncertainty Endangers Ishiba and South Korea Deal

Germany: Offshore Wind Auction Fails To Attract Bidders for the First Time as Industry Confronts Slowdown

Argentina: Government's Repeated Defeats in Congress to Fuel Uncertainty Ahead of October Election

U.S.: Trump's 100% Semiconductor Tariff To Further Incentivize Manufacturing Offshoring

Russia, U.S.: Putin-Witkoff Meeting Signals Diplomacy To Secure Sanctions Off-Ramp From U.S.

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support