Assessments

Morocco

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

The state-owned OCP Group is accelerating domestic green ammonia projects and diversifying sulfur suppliers to secure its position as a dominant agricultural and diplomatic partner across sub-Saharan Africa.

Morocco, World's Leading Phosphate Exporter, Seeks To Mitigate Strategic Vulnerabilities

Australia

China

Fiji

New Zealand

Vanuatu

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and Fiji Minister for Public Works, Transport and Meteorological Services, Ro Filipe Tuisawau (right) shake hands during the opening of the Vuvale Skills hub in Suva on July 6, 2026.

Military & Security

Australia's new pacts with Fiji and Vanuatu will strengthen barriers to Chinese military access, but persistent regional development needs and China's ability to project power without local basing will still provide space for Beijing to build influence.

Australia's Pacific Pacts Strengthen, but Don't Secure, Its Strategic Position Against China

United States

Philippines

Europe

The NATO headquarters is seen in Brussels, Belgium.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Hosts NATO Summit, Iran Buries Slain Supreme Leader

U.S.-Iran Relations

Turkey

Ukraine

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Kenya

Protesters march outside Parliament to honor victims of the June 25, 2024, protest on June 25, 2026, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Despite declining public approval, President William Ruto remains well-positioned to leverage state resources and exploit opposition divisions to secure his standing ahead of next year's general election.


Kenyan Opposition Struggles To Unite Against Ruto Ahead of 2027 Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 2, 2026

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Social Issues

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

Belarus

Russia

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Snapshots

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

Computer chips are seen on top of the U.S. and Chinese flags.

The Trump administration's recent shift to a more restrictive, ad-hoc licensing regime for frontier AI models risks slowing U.S. innovation and giving Chinese rivals a competitive advantage.

From Laissez-Faire to Licensing: Understanding Trump's Evolving AI Strategy

U.S.-China Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Energy

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Latest

France

Journalists surround French far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen (center) as she arrives with National Rally president Jordan Bardella (third from right) for a campaign rally in La Fleche, France, on July 8, 2026.

With the launch of Le Pen's campaign, the National Rally appears set to win France's 2027 presidential election, signaling a coming policy shift toward EU confrontation and weaker NATO integration, though various constraints would temper implementation.

As Le Pen Returns to the Race, What Would a Far-Right Presidency Look Like in France?

North Macedonia

Serbia

Croatia

Albania

Slovenia

Kosovo

Protestors hold national flags as they gather outside Albania's prime minister's office to oppose the construction of luxury resorts, in Tirana on June 25.

Driven by grievances like corruption and declining public trust, protests in the Western Balkans have evolved into deep challenges to ruling elites.


The Implications of Serbia and Albania's Massive Protest Waves

A thermometer reading a high temperature is shown over an image of Earth.

The compounding effects of the weather event and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are set to drive global inflation and strain agricultural output well into next year.


How the 2026 El Nino Climate Event Will Affect the Global Economy and Security

Iran

Israel

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

Lebanon

Oman

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

United Kingdom

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

U.S. President Donald Trump notified Congress of his decision to rescind Syria's designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, Reuters reported on July 8, citing an unnamed senior U.S. official.

U.S., Syria: Trump Moves To Rescind Syria's State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation

U.S. President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that Washington would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptors and "show them how to do it" as Kyiv seeks more air defense missiles to counter Russian missile and drone attacks, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, aged 83, signed into law a controversial constitutional amendment that extends his current presidential term by two years to 2030, Bloomberg reported on July 7.

Zimbabwe: President Signs Law Extending His Presidency to 2030

Science & Technology

After Typhoon Maysak killed dozens of people in China's Gansu and Hubei provinces the week of July 6, Typhoon Bavi -- expected to be upgraded to a super typhoon -- will make landfall in China on July 11, Reuters reported on July 8.

China: Super Typhoon Bavi Bears Down on Industrialized East Coast

Japan

The ruling and opposition parties in Japan's lower house of the Diet agreed to put the issue of amending the Imperial Household Law to a plenary vote on July 10, breaking a two-week impasse in both houses of the Diet, Kyodo News reported on July 8. 

Japan: Takaichi Defuses Diet Impasses, Revives Economic and Defense Plans

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Egypt

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed accused Sudan's internationally recognized government, Eritrea and the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, of collaborating against Ethiopia with the support of unnamed external forces -- most likely Egypt -- in his first parliamentary address since his party's victory in the June 1 general election, Addis Standard reported on July 7.

Ethiopia: Abiy Denounces Anti-Ethiopia Coalition, Supports Two-Term Limits for Prime Minister

Colombia

Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella suspended the government transition process and accused outgoing President Gustavo Petro of plotting a coup, El Pais reported on July 7.

Colombia: Transition Suspension and Coup Plot Claims Underscore Heightened Polarization

Spain

At the opening of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had ordered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to immediately halt "all trade" with Spain, La Vanguardia reported on July 8.

U.S., Spain: Trump Orders Treasury To 'End All Trade' With Spain

Somalia

Iraq

Libya

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control revoked the June 21 general license that allowed Iran to export crude oil as part of the terms of the June memorandum of understanding between the two countries, OFAC said in a July 7 statement published on its website.

Iran, U.S.: U.S. Revokes Sanctions Waivers for Iranian Oil Exports

Algeria

Algeria's election authority announced the provisional results of the July 2 parliamentary elections, with the pro-government National Liberation Front, Democratic National Rally and Future Front parties securing a total of 222 seats in the 407-seat lower house, giving the bloc a clear majority, TSA Algerie reported on July 6.

Algeria: Pro-Government Factions Win Provisional Parliamentary Majority

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

As Le Pen Returns to the Race, What Would a Far-Right Presidency Look Like in France?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Syria: Trump Moves To Rescind Syria's State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Zimbabwe: President Signs Law Extending His Presidency to 2030

China: Super Typhoon Bavi Bears Down on Industrialized East Coast

Japan: Takaichi Defuses Diet Impasses, Revives Economic and Defense Plans

Ethiopia: Abiy Denounces Anti-Ethiopia Coalition, Supports Two-Term Limits for Prime Minister

Colombia: Transition Suspension and Coup Plot Claims Underscore Heightened Polarization

U.S., Spain: Trump Orders Treasury To 'End All Trade' With Spain

Iran, U.S.: U.S. Revokes Sanctions Waivers for Iranian Oil Exports

Algeria: Pro-Government Factions Win Provisional Parliamentary Majority

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