Assessments

Honduras

China

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

India

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Economics

Energy

Global Trade

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 26, 2025

Employees work at a garment factory in Tiruppur, in India's southern state of Tamil Nadu, on Sept. 23, 2025.

While the reforms will eventually create a more competitive, transparent and predictable labor market, the potential for uneven state-level adoption and protests will create challenges for companies in the near term. 

India's Labor Code Reforms: Opportunities and Implementation Challenges

Snapshots

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Smoke rises in the background as a Ukrainian flag flutters in the wind following a mass overnight Russian drone and missile attacks, in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv on Nov. 19, 2025. 

European efforts to adjust core elements of Trump's plan won't shield Ukraine from his latest threat to withdraw support, and Europe's limited leverage and internal constraints mean it is unlikely to sustain Kyiv's defense alone if talks with the White House fail.

What To Make of Europe's Counterproposal to the U.S. Ukraine Peace Plan

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Angola

South Africa

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Banners bearing portraits of leaders of the G20 on Nov. 20 in Johannesburg. The South African government has focused the G20 summit's agenda on issues key to African countries.

The Weekly Rundown: A High-Stakes British Budget, South Africa Hosts the G20

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic." 

The transitional government's decision will boost reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts, but it will also risk alienating internal hard-liners and could eventually fuel an Islamic State resurgence if Syria's economic recovery stalls.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

The Pentagon viewed from above.

A strategic shift to prioritize commercially available technology over bespoke solutions aims to deliver capabilities faster, though it faces constraints and introduces risks to quality and cost.

New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain

Latest

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

While efforts by China and others to de-dollarize their international trade will fragment the international trade financing regime to some extent, they will do little to undermine the dollar's dominance.

The Geopolitics of Trade: De-dollarization and International Trade

U.S.-China Relations

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Columns

On Geopolitics

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Turkey

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

Sudan

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, offered Russia a 25-year deal to establish its first African naval facility at Port Sudan, which would be able to accommodate up to 300 personnel and four warships, The Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 1.

Sudan: SAF Offers Russia Naval Base as U.S. Increases Pressure Over Truce, Chemical Weapons Use

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators met for several hours in Florida, where both sides described "productive" progress on a revised U.S. peace plan, Reuters reported Dec.1.

U.S., Ukraine: Florida Talks Advance Revised Peace Plan but Core Disputes Persist

NATO is reassessing its posture toward Russian hybrid activities like cyberattacks, sabotage incidents and repeated airspace violations, and is weighing more assertive and proactive responses, particularly on cyber, the Financial Times reported Nov. 30, citing the Western security alliance's top military officer, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone.

Europe, Russia: NATO Weighs More Proactive Action Amid Intensifying Russian Hybrid Activity

Israel's President Issac Herzog made his first statement on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's request for a presidential pardon in his six-year corruption trial, saying that he would handle it "in the best possible way" without committing to what such an approach would mean, the BBC reported Dec. 1.

Israel: President Addresses Netanyahu Pardon Issue

As expected, OPEC+ agreed to keep production levels unchanged for the first three months of 2026 at its Nov. 30 production policy meeting. It also approved a new mechanism to assess production capacity for its members, which will be used to set production baselines for 2027.

Global: OPEC+ Keeps Production Levels Unchanged, Launches Review of Production Capacities

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed reports that he spoke with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the phone, Reuters reported Nov. 30. On Nov. 29, Trump posted on social media that the airspace above and surrounding Venezuela should be considered "closed in its entirety."

U.S., Venezuela: Failed Attempt at Talks, Trump's Airspace Closure Warning Presage Imminent U.S. Attacks

Hundreds of undocumented Venezuelan migrants seeking to leave Chile via the land border with Peru dispersed after the Peruvian government declared a state of emergency and deployed troops to the area to reinforce customs controls, AFP reported Dec. 1.

Peru: Country Declares State of Emergency, Deploys Military to Chile Border in Anticipation of Migrant Surge

A senior official with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, said the group will not take any additional steps toward disarmament and disbandment so long as its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, remains imprisoned, France 24 reported Nov. 30. The PKK has also conditioned further progress in the peace process on constitutional recognition of Kurds in Turkey.

Turkey: PKK Conditions Peace Process Progress on Leader's Release, Kurdish Constitutional Recognition

Mali

Diesel and gasoline shortages in Bamako caused by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin's fuel blockade on the city have greatly eased, with most gas stations in the city having reopened since Nov. 24, Radio France International reported Nov. 29.

Mali: Easing Fuel Shortages in Bamako Curb Immediate Challenges to Junta 

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), have agreed to pass a bill during the current Diet session (which ends on Dec. 17) that outlines plans to reduce the number of seats in the lower house of the legislature by 10%, Asahi Shimbun reported Dec. 1.

Japan: Ruling Coalition Pushes for Diet Seat Cuts, Secures Narrow Lower House Majority

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Science & Technology

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Sudan: SAF Offers Russia Naval Base as U.S. Increases Pressure Over Truce, Chemical Weapons Use

U.S., Ukraine: Florida Talks Advance Revised Peace Plan but Core Disputes Persist

Europe, Russia: NATO Weighs More Proactive Action Amid Intensifying Russian Hybrid Activity

Israel: President Addresses Netanyahu Pardon Issue

Global: OPEC+ Keeps Production Levels Unchanged, Launches Review of Production Capacities

U.S., Venezuela: Failed Attempt at Talks, Trump's Airspace Closure Warning Presage Imminent U.S. Attacks

Peru: Country Declares State of Emergency, Deploys Military to Chile Border in Anticipation of Migrant Surge

Turkey: PKK Conditions Peace Process Progress on Leader's Release, Kurdish Constitutional Recognition

Mali: Easing Fuel Shortages in Bamako Curb Immediate Challenges to Junta

Japan: Ruling Coalition Pushes for Diet Seat Cuts, Secures Narrow Lower House Majority

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