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Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

How could advancements in AI increase the threat of state-sponsored cyber activity?

Essential Geopolitics: The Role of AI in State-Sponsored Cyber Espionage Campaigns

Snapshots

United States

Venezuela

The U.S. Navy's Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group participates in joint operations with the U.S. Air Force on Nov. 13, 2025.

Increased military mobilizations, failed negotiations with Maduro and persistent aggressive rhetoric suggest the Trump administration will likely soon escalate its Caribbean military campaign to targeted strikes in Venezuelan territory.

The U.S. Remains Poised To Attack Venezuelan Territory

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Palestinian Hamas militants stand guard as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp, in the northern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 1, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

The shift toward a low-intensity conflict in the Gaza Strip will likely enable Israel to keep pressuring Hamas to disarm without triggering significant backlash or a resumption of Houthi maritime attacks.

Israel Moves Toward a De Facto Partition of Gaza

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Europe

Ukraine

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Somalia

Yemen

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

Economics

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 4, 2025

Lebanon

A photograph taken from the Israeli side of the border with southern Lebanon shows U.N. peacekeepers clearing landmines on Nov. 19, 2025. 

Rare direct talks between the neighboring adversaries will probably continue despite Hezbollah's objections, but Israel's likely refusal to offer meaningful concessions will sustain a high risk of renewed conflict in the coming months.

Lebanon-Israel Talks Are Unlikely To Pave the Way for Peace

Eurasia

Russia

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Energy

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

India

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hold a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin on Sept. 1, 2025.

Global Trade

While Putin's Dec. 4-5 visit may yield some progress in defense, energy and trade cooperation, India will likely maintain selective engagement with Russia as it navigates U.S. pressure and continues diversifying its arms suppliers.

What To Expect as Putin Visits India

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Latest

Middle East and North Africa

Jordanian police close the entrance of a Muslim Brotherhood headquarters on April 23, 2025, in Amman, Jordan.

While the White House has initiated a review process to label the Muslim Brotherhood a Foreign Terrorist Organization, it is unlikely to result in a comprehensive ban on the group.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

Benin

Nigeria

France

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

Cambodia

Thailand

A Thai soldier points out an area on a map near the Cambodian border during a press visit on Aug. 16, 2025, in Sisaket, Thailand. 

Renewed fighting along the border could surpass the July clashes in scale, and while U.S. pressure will likely compel both countries to return to the ceasefire, the risk of future flare-ups will remain high.

Latest Thailand-Cambodia Clashes Will Test U.S. Appetite for Intervention

Iran

Iraq

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

Workers clean the rubble from the site of a Nov. 23 Israeli airstrike targeting a residential building in the southern Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut. Israel will likely opportunistically escalate airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas to further weaken the militant groups and push them toward disarmament without ending shaky ceasefires.

Miscalculation or an opportunity for Israel to significantly set back Hezbollah would, however, increase the likelihood of a return to major fighting. 

Despite More Intense Israeli Strikes, Hezbollah and Hamas Ceasefires Will Likely Hold

Ukrainian artillerymen operate a U.S.-made M-114 howitzer near Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Oct. 16, 2025.

Trump has given Ukraine until Nov. 27 to accept a plan that would freeze the war on terms favorable to Moscow, or face U.S. aid cuts. But Kyiv is unlikely to accede, instead relying on European support to continue fighting.

Ukraine Likely To Reject Trump's Peace Plan Ultimatum, Prolonging the War

Honduras

View of a Honduran national flag at La Laguna neighborhood, in the north of Tegucigalpa, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

Honduras' next government will face legislative gridlock, political instability and unrest, regardless of the victor.

The Challenges Facing Honduras' Upcoming General Election

Global Elections

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Turkey

Indonesia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Moscow, offering expanded military cooperation, nuclear energy assistance and renewed wheat export volumes after a year of disrupted shipments, Reuters reported on Dec. 10.

Indonesia, Russia: Jakarta Expands Military and Energy Links With Moscow

Vietnam

Vietnam's National Assembly passed amended press and state secret laws that, among other changes, require journalists to disclose their sources upon request in any criminal investigation, broadening the prior threshold of only "serious crimes," according to a National Assembly press release published on Dec. 10.

Vietnam: Media Law Amendments Deepen State Control Over Information

U.S. officials say Indonesia is reneging on elements of the July trade framework that set a 19% U.S. tariff rate and included Indonesian commitments to reduce local content rules and purchase roughly $19 billion in U.S. goods, including 50 Boeing jets, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 9. 

Indonesia, U.S.: Trade Deal at Risk of Collapse

Brazil

Brazil's Chamber of Deputies approved a bill that reduces prison sentences for those convicted of anti-democratic acts, including former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year term for attempting to plot a coup during the 2022 election, g1 reported Dec. 10.

Brazil: Chamber of Deputies Approves Bill That Would Reduce Bolsonaro's Prison Sentence

Togo

Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri fled to neighboring Togo after his Dec. 7 coup attempt in Benin collapsed, Jeune Afrique reported on Dec. 10. 

Benin, Togo: Benin's Failed Coup Leader Flees to Togo

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Rwanda-backed M23 rebels entered the city of Uvira, the second-largest city in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's South Kivu province, despite calls from the United States and the European Union for the group to immediately halt its offensive, Radio Okapi reported Dec. 10. 

Congo: M23 Rebels Enter Eastern City of Uvira in Major Escalation

U.S. President Donald Trump said he will call Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet to discuss an immediate ceasefire and revive the U.S.-brokered Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord signed between the two countries in October, Nikkei Asia reported on Dec. 10.

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump To Call Thai and Cambodian Leaders

Mexico

Mexico's Chamber of Deputies approved a reform to the General Import and Export Tax Law, which will impose up to 50% import tariffs on goods from countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement, La Jornada reported on Dec. 10. 

Mexico: Deputies Approve Import Tax Bill Targeting Mostly Chinese Goods

Science & Technology

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

France's National Assembly narrowly approved the government's social security budget, including provisions suspending recent pension reforms, with 247 votes in favor, 234 against and 93 abstentions, Le Monde reported on Dec. 9.

France: National Assembly Narrowly Approves Social Security Budget

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently added artificial intelligence processors from Huawei, Cambricon and other Chinese companies to its government-approved list of suppliers, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 9.

China: Beijing Adds Domestic AI Chips to Government-Approved Supplier List

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

U.S. Unlikely To Broadly Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Indonesia, Russia: Jakarta Expands Military and Energy Links With Moscow

Vietnam: Media Law Amendments Deepen State Control Over Information

Indonesia, U.S.: Trade Deal at Risk of Collapse

Brazil: Chamber of Deputies Approves Bill That Would Reduce Bolsonaro's Prison Sentence

Benin, Togo: Benin's Failed Coup Leader Flees to Togo

Congo: M23 Rebels Enter Eastern City of Uvira in Major Escalation

Thailand, Cambodia, U.S.: Trump To Call Thai and Cambodian Leaders

Mexico: Deputies Approve Import Tax Bill Targeting Mostly Chinese Goods

France: National Assembly Narrowly Approves Social Security Budget

China: Beijing Adds Domestic AI Chips to Government-Approved Supplier List

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