Assessments

United States

Venezuela

Spain

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Tanks on Sept. 23 in Caracas, Venezuela. The Trump administration has reportedly decided to attack military sites in Venezuela in strikes that could occur at any moment.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Potential U.S. Strikes in Venezuela, U.S. Outreach in Central Asia

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Saudi Arabia

An aerial photo shows the Saudi capital of Riyadh.

Energy

Social Issues

An aspiring middle power, Riyadh must still balance ancient imperatives with modern challenges before it reaches the kind of geopolitical security enjoyed by neighbors like Turkey, Iran and Egypt.

The Modern Geopolitics of Saudi Arabia

Iran

Iraq

A girl walks past posters and banners depicting political candidates from rival blocs competing for a seat in the Iraqi Council of Representatives in old Mosul, northern Iraq, on Oct. 28, 2025, days before the Nov. 11, 2025, parliamentary elections.

Backed by a coalition that reaches across ethnic and sectarian divides, Iraq's current prime minister will likely maintain his position after the country's upcoming parliamentary elections, portending relative foreign policy continuity.

Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections

Global Elections

Belize

Colombia

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Bahamas

Trinidad and Tobago

Jamaica

A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. 

The Trump administration will likely expand its attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the region over the next year, potentially extending to land-based targets, which will create safety, operational and compliance challenges for organizations.

The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean

A flag displaying the logo for Russia's Lukoil oil giant flies near a Russian flag in Moscow on Oct. 23, 2025.

The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil aim to financially coerce Russia into negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine, but patchy enforcement and continued Asian demand for Russian crude will limit the impact.

New U.S. Sanctions Strike at the Heart of Russia's War Economy

Snapshots

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

Global Trade

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 30, 2025

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

Columns

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Turkey

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Germany

Chancellor Friedrich Merz raises his hand in a vote at the Bundestag prior to a vote on changes to Germany's Basic Law on March 18, 2025 in Berlin, Germany. 

A landmark reform of the constitutional debt brake unlocks significant new spending, but this fiscal boost will be dampened by persistent administrative bottlenecks and a political reluctance to seriously tackle broader structural reform.

Defense Spending Will Modestly Boost the German Economy, but Challenges Remain

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Latest

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Brazil

The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference is poised to highlight the enduring impasse between developed and developing nations, particularly regarding financial responsibilities and the transition from fossil fuels.

A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outlines Beijing's intent to continue current economic policies, pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, escalate Xi's anti-corruption campaign, and use lawfare to fend off foreign trade disputes.

President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years

Sri Lanka

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka logo is seen outside the bank's headquarters in Colombo on July 6, 2023.

The IMF will likely approve the fifth review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout due to the country's strong fiscal performance, debt restructuring progress and political stability, though high poverty and delayed state-enterprise reforms pose ongoing risks.

Sri Lanka on Track To Unlock Next IMF Disbursement, but Challenges Remain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

On Geopolitics

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Israel

Palestinian Territories

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Pakistan

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Leaders of political parties part of South Africa's coalition government adopted the country's Medium-Term Development Plan, vowed to accelerate reforms and ratified the terms of reference of the government's clearinghouse mechanism to resolve intra-coalition disagreements, News24 reported on Nov. 3.

South Africa: Coalition Government Agrees on Clearinghouse Mechanism, Policy Agenda 

Cameroon

Cameroonian opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary, who has contested incumbent candidate Paul Biya's victory in the October presidential election, has reportedly moved to Nigeria's Adamawa state, where Nigerian intelligence services are monitoring his presence and anticipating a potential request for his extradition, Africa Intelligence reported on Nov. 4.

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Tchiroma Reportedly Relocates to Nigeria

Brazilian senators installed a parliamentary inquiry commission into organized crime on Nov. 4, g1 reported the same day. 

Brazil: Parliamentary Commission on Organized Crime To Boost Momentum for Stricter Security Policies

When asked whether U.S. Forces Korea could be used in a Taiwan or South China Sea contingency, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Nov. 4 that "There's no doubt flexibility for regional contingencies is something we would take a look at," Bloomberg reported on Nov. 4.

South Korea, U.S.: Security Meeting Addresses Shifting Mission of USFK, Construction of Nuclear Sub

Science & Technology

Europe

The European Union approved a new 1.35 billion euro ($1.42 billion) aid payment to Ukraine as part of its ongoing support package, Politico reported on Nov. 4.

Ukraine, EU: Bloc Approves New Aid but Signals Tougher Line on Ukraine's Reform and Accession Track

North Korea

South Korea's National Intelligence Service said during a closed-door parliamentary briefing on Nov. 4 that it had detected signs that North Korea was preparing for a summit between leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Yonhap News Agency reported the same day.

North Korea, U.S.: Trump-Kim Summit a Near-Miss, Meeting Expected After March

KazMunayGas chief Askhat Khassenov met TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to discuss the next phase of the North Caspian (Kashagan) project and review ongoing cooperation on the 1 gigawatt Mirny wind project, KazMunayGas' press service announced on Nov. 3.

Kazakhstan: Government Deepens Western Energy Ties Ahead of Tokayev's Washington Visit

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told a news conference in South Korea on Nov. 1 that "I have no time to think about dissolution [of the lower house] right now," adding that she would focus instead on economic support measures, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Nov. 3.

Japan: Despite Takaichi's Claims, Threat of Snap Elections Still Looms

Djibouti

Djibouti's parliament voted unanimously to remove the constitutional presidential age limit of 75 years, Arab News reported on Nov. 2.

Djibouti: Parliament Approves Removal of Presidential Age Limit

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

South Africa: Coalition Government Agrees on Clearinghouse Mechanism, Policy Agenda

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Tchiroma Reportedly Relocates to Nigeria

Brazil: Parliamentary Commission on Organized Crime To Boost Momentum for Stricter Security Policies

South Korea, U.S.: Security Meeting Addresses Shifting Mission of USFK, Construction of Nuclear Sub

Ukraine, EU: Bloc Approves New Aid but Signals Tougher Line on Ukraine's Reform and Accession Track

North Korea, U.S.: Trump-Kim Summit a Near-Miss, Meeting Expected After March

Kazakhstan: Government Deepens Western Energy Ties Ahead of Tokayev's Washington Visit

Japan: Despite Takaichi's Claims, Threat of Snap Elections Still Looms

Djibouti: Parliament Approves Removal of Presidential Age Limit

Tanzania: Opposition Rejects President's Landslide Win as Shipping Lines Are Redirected to Kenya

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