Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 20, 2025

Media

Israel

Indonesia

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

What is the outlook for Indonesia-Israel normalization, and what would that process look like?

Essential Geopolitics: Indonesia's Interest in Israel-Gaza

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Economics

Global Trade

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Kazakhstan

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025. 

Energy

The deals signed during Kazakh President Tokayev's recent trip to Moscow will provide Astana with short-term stability but will limit its strategic autonomy and ability to further engage with the West, while heightening its exposure to Russian coercion.

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

Sudan

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Palestinian Territories

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

Chile

Venezuela

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Latest

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic." 

The transitional government's decision will boost reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts, but it will also risk alienating internal hard-liners and could eventually fuel an Islamic State resurgence if Syria's economic recovery stalls.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

The Pentagon viewed from above.

A strategic shift to prioritize commercially available technology over bespoke solutions aims to deliver capabilities faster, though it faces constraints and introduces risks to quality and cost.

New U.S. Defense Acquisition Reforms Offer Opportunities for Improvements, but Longstanding Constraints Remain

Italy

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on March 18 in the Italian Senate in Rome. Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Smaller fiscal deficits are unlikely to cut government debt in the medium term given Italy's modest economic growth outlook and significant social and defense spending pressures.

Modest Growth and Spending Pressures Will Limit Italy's Debt Reduction Efforts

Snapshots

Algeria

Morocco

A man rides past a roundabout adorned with Moroccan national flags in Laayoune, the main city of Moroccan-controlled Western Sahara, on Nov. 7, 2025.

Although Morocco's sovereignty plan is gaining momentum, the unresolved conflict will continue to complicate the region's development and fuel sporadic clashes.

U.N. Security Council Resolution Bolsters Morocco's Claims to Disputed Western Sahara

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Columns

On Security

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Tunisia

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iran is terminating its September agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency that allowed for limited monitoring of nuclear facilities after the IAEA's board passed a resolution calling for Iran to report details about its enriched uranium, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 20, citing Iran's foreign minister. 

Iran: Tehran Terminates IAEA Inspection Agreement After IAEA Vote Against Enriched Uranium

Cyber

Science & Technology

The U.S. Trump administration is preparing an executive order that would bolster the federal government's ability to block states from regulating artificial intelligence, Politico reported on Nov. 20. 

U.S.: White House Pursues Executive Order To Block States From Regulating AI

Bangladesh's Supreme Court reinstated the practice of installing a nonpartisan caretaker government to oversee the conduct of free and fair national elections, AP reported on Nov. 20.

Bangladesh: Caretaker Government System To Resume After the Next Election

At least 26 people, including three children, were killed and 22 remain missing after a Russian missile and drone strike destroyed apartment blocks in the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil overnight, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

Ukraine, Russia: Ternopil Civilian Strike Marks Escalation of Russia's Winter Campaign

A Nigerian court sentenced separatist leader Nnamdi Kanu to life in prison after finding him guilty on seven charges, including terrorism, treason, and involvement with a banned separatist group, over his campaign for an independent Biafra state in southeastern Nigeria, BBC reported on Nov. 20.

Nigeria: Separatist Leader Found Guilty of Terrorism

United Arab Emirates

The U.S. Commerce Department approved the sale of up to 35,000 of Nvidia's GB300 servers or equivalents to both the United Arab Emirates' G42 and to Saudi Arabia's Humain, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 20. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia, UAE: U.S. Approves Sale of Advanced AI Chips to Saudi, Emirati Tech Companies

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Thailand's anti-corruption body publicly warned that Bangkok's crackdown on crime syndicates and money laundering networks is failing because political, bureaucratic and police elites are taking bribes and protecting criminal groups, The Straits Times reported on Nov. 20.

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

Canada's 13 provinces and territories, plus the federal government, signed the Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement on Nov. 19 to remove internal trade barriers for thousands of products, according to a statement from British Columbia's provincial government. 

Canada: Agreement Reached To Break Down Internal Trade Barriers

U.S. officials have privately informed individuals in the government and private sector that the plan to place tariffs on semiconductors may not move forward quickly, Reuters reported on Nov. 20.

U.S.: Trump Administration Likely To Delay Semiconductor Tariffs

Iraq

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declared Beirut was ready to engage diplomatically with Israel, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 20.

Lebanon, Israel: Lebanon's Prime Minister Reiterates Willingness To Negotiate With Israel

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Tehran Terminates IAEA Inspection Agreement After IAEA Vote Against Enriched Uranium

U.S.: White House Pursues Executive Order To Block States From Regulating AI

Bangladesh: Caretaker Government System To Resume After the Next Election

Ukraine, Russia: Ternopil Civilian Strike Marks Escalation of Russia's Winter Campaign

Nigeria: Separatist Leader Found Guilty of Terrorism

U.S., Saudi Arabia, UAE: U.S. Approves Sale of Advanced AI Chips to Saudi, Emirati Tech Companies

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

Canada: Agreement Reached To Break Down Internal Trade Barriers

U.S.: Trump Administration Likely To Delay Semiconductor Tariffs

Lebanon, Israel: Lebanon's Prime Minister Reiterates Willingness To Negotiate With Israel

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