Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 13, 2025

Media

Venezuela

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Energy

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union is pushing to develop continent-wide anti-drone capabilities, but financial, political and legal fragmentation will significantly slow progress and leave the bloc's defense vulnerable.

Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation

India

Pakistan

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Economics

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

Chile

Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast is most likely to win, portending a shift toward pro-business policies and stricter security measures. But a leftist, center-right or ultra-right president could also be elected, each with different visions for Chile's future.

Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

China

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Brazil

Iraq

Syria

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

Environment, Science & Technology

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

U.S.-China Relations

South Sudan

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Malawi

Mozambique

Zambia

Japan

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Bangladesh

Nepal

Sri Lanka

How do recent protests in Nepal compare to those in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?

Essential Geopolitics: Political Instability in South Asia

Latest

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

Columns

On Security

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Serbia

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Palestinian Territories

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

According to the Nov. 14 vote count, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance, is on track to comfortably retain control of Bihar state's legislature, Reuters reported the same day.

India: Modi’s NDA Coalition Is Set To Maintain Control in Bihar State

The United States and South Korea on Nov. 14 jointly released a fact sheet about their Oct. 29 trade deal, with U.S. tariffs dropping from 25% to 15% and South Korea pledging to invest $200 billion in strategic projects, including energy and artificial intelligence, at a pace of $20 billion per year, but reserving the right to renegotiate if it faces economic difficulties.

South Korea, U.S.: Trade Deal Roughly Outlines Tariffs, Investments, Shipbuilding

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on social media that the United States is launching military operation "Southern Spear" to target narco-terrorists in the Western Hemisphere, Axios reported on Nov. 13.

U.S., Caribbean: Operation Announcement Indicates Imminent Military Escalation

Argentina

El Salvador

Guatemala

The United States has reached framework agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala that will remove U.S. tariffs on some foods and other imported goods from these countries while also giving U.S. companies greater access to their markets, Reuters reported on Nov. 14.

Americas: Trade Deals To Help Ease Food Inflation, Secure Market Access for U.S. Manufacturers

Ukraine launched overnight strikes using long-range "Long Neptune" cruise missiles, hitting Russia's Novorossiysk oil export hub, Reuters reported on Nov. 14.

Ukraine, Russia: Ukrainian Strikes Halt Novorossiysk Oil Exports, Heightening Risks for Russia and Kazakhstan

Ghana

Ghanaian Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson unveiled the country's 2026 budget before Parliament, which he said would ensure a primary budget surplus of 1.5% of gross domestic product, an overall budget deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and the allocation of 30 billion cedis ($2.74 billion) in 2026 to fund infrastructure projects, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 13.

Ghana: Government's 2026 Budget Portends Accelerating Economic Recovery

A Saudi official announced that the kingdom would increase economic trade with Lebanon because Lebanese authorities had successfully cracked down on its drug trade, especially of methamphetamines and Captagon, Reuters reported on Nov. 13.

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Saudi Arabia To Increase Trade With Lebanon

Science & Technology

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

American space company Blue Origin successfully landed the first stage of its two-stage heavy-lift New Glenn rocket during its Nov. 13 ESCAPADE launch for the first time, The New York Times reported.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Modi’s NDA Coalition Is Set To Maintain Control in Bihar State

South Korea, U.S.: Trade Deal Roughly Outlines Tariffs, Investments, Shipbuilding

U.S., Caribbean: Operation Announcement Indicates Imminent Military Escalation

Americas: Trade Deals To Help Ease Food Inflation, Secure Market Access for U.S. Manufacturers

Ukraine, Russia: Ukrainian Strikes Halt Novorossiysk Oil Exports, Heightening Risks for Russia and Kazakhstan

Ghana: Government's 2026 Budget Portends Accelerating Economic Recovery

Saudi Arabia, Lebanon: Saudi Arabia To Increase Trade With Lebanon

U.S.: Blue Origin Lands New Glenn Rocket’s First Stage in Critical Space Milestone

U.S.: Funding Bill To End Shutdown Temporarily Reauthorizes Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act

Taiwan: Taiwan's Third Europe Speaking Event Imperils EU-China Trade Talks, But Drills Unlikely

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