Assessments

United States

Philippines

Europe

The NATO headquarters is seen in Brussels, Belgium.

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Hosts NATO Summit, Iran Buries Slain Supreme Leader

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 2, 2026

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Snapshots

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

China

Computer chips are seen on top of the U.S. and Chinese flags.

The Trump administration's recent shift to a more restrictive, ad-hoc licensing regime for frontier AI models risks slowing U.S. innovation and giving Chinese rivals a competitive advantage.

From Laissez-Faire to Licensing: Understanding Trump's Evolving AI Strategy

U.S.-China Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Social Issues

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Quarterly

Forecasts

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

Canada

Mexico

Iran

Japan

United Kingdom

India

Cargo ships June 19 off the coast of the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal in Sharjah emirate, along the Gulf of Oman.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Takaichi Goes to India, an Unsteady U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Israel

Lebanon

Oman

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

Columns

On Geopolitics

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

Bahrain

Kuwait

Qatar

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C, top) meets with GCC foreign ministers during his visit to the Middle East to discuss with Arab Gulf allies the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran on June 25 in Manama.

While Qatar and Saudi Arabia explore restoring trade ties with Iran, the United Arab Emirates is aligning its security with Israel and the United States.

Divergent Approaches to Iran Expose Gulf Arab Splits

Latest

A thermometer reading a high temperature is shown over an image of Earth.

The compounding effects of the weather event and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are set to drive global inflation and strain agricultural output well into next year.


How the 2026 El Nino Climate Event Will Affect the Global Economy and Security

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Kenya

Protesters march outside Parliament to honor victims of the June 25, 2024, protest on June 25, 2026, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Despite declining public approval, President William Ruto remains well-positioned to leverage state resources and exploit opposition divisions to secure his standing ahead of next year's general election.


Kenyan Opposition Struggles To Unite Against Ruto Ahead of 2027 Elections

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Palestinian Territories

The Palestinian militant group Hamas dissolved its administrative body responsible for governing the Gaza Strip in order to enable the technocratic, U.S.-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to take control, AP reported on July 6.

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas Dissolves Gaza Administrative Body

Russia launched another deadly attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, killing at least 15 people and injuring 56 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

The Israeli Cabinet voted to disregard a June ruling by the High Court of Justice that allowed the Council of the Second Authority -- a commercial broadcasting regulatory body -- to resume operations even though it lacked the two-thirds of members required to operate, The Times of Israel reported on July 5.

Israel: Cabinet Rejects High Court Ruling, Risking Constitutional Crisis

Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Omsk oil refinery, which is located almost 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) east of Ukraine and deep inside Siberia, near Russia's border with Kazakhstan, Kommersant reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Australia

Indonesia

New Zealand

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Jakarta, Indonesia, for the first stop on his tour of Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand, The Times of India reported on July 6.

India: Modi Begins Tour of Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi rebels and Saudi-led, pro-government forces clashed on July 4 in the Hays district, south of al-Hudaydah, resulting in the deaths of 16 government forces and at least 50 militants in one of the most violent clashes since the Yemeni civil war essentially froze in 2022, Al Jazeera reported the next day.

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Houthis Threaten Saudi Arabia, Kill 16 Government Troops

Cuba

Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban President Raul Castro, said he was open to negotiating with the United States and would be willing to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump himself, according to an interview with USA Today published on July 6.

Cuba, U.S.: Former President's Grandson Willing To Negotiate With U.S.

Philippine Sen. Rodante Marcoleta was arrested on a nonbailable plunder charge over allegations that he accepted $1.2 million in undeclared donations, Reuters reported on July 6.

Philippines: Another Duterte Ally Arrested as Impeachment Trial Begins

Fiji

Australia and Fiji signed the Ocean of Peace Alliance, committing each country to aid the other if attacked and making Fiji Australia's fourth formal ally, the Australian Financial Review reported on July 6.

Australia, Fiji, China: Canberra Forms Alliance With Fiji as Beijing Tests Missile in the Pacific

On July 6-7, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative will hear arguments against a proposed 25% tariff on Brazilian goods as the final step of an ongoing Section 301 investigation, Veja reported on July 6.

Brazil, U.S.: Flavio Bolsonaro To Attend USTR Hearing on Brazil

Science & Technology

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How the 2026 El Nino Climate Event Will Affect the Global Economy and Security

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas Dissolves Gaza Administrative Body

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Israel: Cabinet Rejects High Court Ruling, Risking Constitutional Crisis

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

India: Modi Begins Tour of Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Houthis Threaten Saudi Arabia, Kill 16 Government Troops

Cuba, U.S.: Former President's Grandson Willing To Negotiate With U.S.

Philippines: Another Duterte Ally Arrested as Impeachment Trial Begins

Australia, Fiji, China: Canberra Forms Alliance With Fiji as Beijing Tests Missile in the Pacific

Brazil, U.S.: Flavio Bolsonaro To Attend USTR Hearing on Brazil

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support