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Sub-Saharan Africa

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Middle East and North Africa

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Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Economics

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Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Cuba

United States

Iran

Israel

China

Russia

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

How will the trajectory of China-U.S. trade conversations change in light of conflict in the Middle East?

The Decision Advantage: The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

South Africa

A general view of power lines near the Lethabo power station between Vereeniging and Sasolburg, South Africa, on April 17, 2024.

Although South Africa's power sector reforms remain years from completion, their gradual advancement will still attract investment in energy projects that support the country's long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

The Outlook for South Africa's Power Sector Reforms and Energy Security

Cars drive past a gas station in Ponte Leccia on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on March 26, 2026. 

To address Iran-related energy disruptions, the European Union will likely opt for a patchwork of national relief measures, rather than a more comprehensive market intervention.

How the EU Is Responding to Its Latest Energy Crisis

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 26, 2026

Yemen

India

A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

While far from deterministic, demographics plays a key role in influencing a country's domestic and international politics, as well as its economic and financial development.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

Snapshots

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Latest

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

U.S.-China Relations

Houthi loyalists chant slogans on March 27, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen, as they participate in a protest staged to show support for Iran in its ongoing war against the United States and Israel.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis will likely progressively expand their target set beyond Israel if the war intensifies, raising the risk of more economically disruptive attacks on regional shipping and energy infrastructure.

The Implications of the Houthis Joining the Iran War

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's proposal for an Easter pause in strikes on energy infrastructure, saying Russia had not seen a clearly formulated initiative, Reuters reported on March 31.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Dismisses Energy Truce as Strikes Hit Oil Exports

Science & Technology

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on March 30 that requires artificial intelligence companies seeking state contracts to implement AI safety guardrails, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S.: California Executive Order Requires Companies With State Contracts To Issue AI Safeguards

Russia's Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev said the government was seeking to reduce the use of virtual private networks and had decided to restrict access to additional unidentified foreign platforms as part of a broader tightening of internet controls, Reuters reported on March 31.

Russia: Kremlin Expands VPN Crackdown and Internet Restrictions

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung asserted in a Cabinet meeting on March 31 that the country requires "detailed emergency measures" to deal with difficulties arising from heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil, adding that the constitution allowed him to issue an emergency decree, if necessary.

South Korea: Lee Considers Rare Emergency Decree To Address Energy Crisis

Japan

Malaysia

Singapore

Canberra is in discussions with key buyers of its liquefied natural gas exports, namely Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia, to ensure that these partners prioritize Australia when shipping refined fuel products -- including petrol, diesel and jet fuel -- as regional shortages emerge, Bloomberg reported on March 31.

Australia: Canberra Seeks To Leverage LNG for Refined Fuel

Indonesia

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto agreed to deepen cooperation on energy supply chains, including liquefied natural gas and coal, alongside expanded economic and industrial collaboration during the latter's visit to Japan, Bloomberg reported on March 31.

Japan, Indonesia: Tokyo, Jakarta Deepen Energy, Industrial and Defense Ties

The president of Somalia's South West state, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, resigned from his position after federal government-aligned forces entered South West state's interim capital of Baidoa, Hiiraan Online reported on March 30.

Somalia: South West State President Resigns After Federal Troops Seize Baidoa

Ethiopia

Kenya

The Ethiopian government issued directives on remote work and mandatory leave for nonessential employees at public institutions and state-owned enterprises to ease fuel demand amid emerging shortages in the country linked to the Iran war, Addis Standard reported on March 30.

Africa: Kenyan and Ethiopian Governments Step in Amid Fuel Shortages

Italy denied landing rights at its Sigonella air base in Sicily to U.S. military aircraft involved in the war against Iran, Corriere della Sera reported on March 31, citing government sources.

Italy, France, Iran: European Countries Signal Reluctance To Support U.S.-Israeli Operations in Iran

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's army launched a disarmament campaign targeting the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, a militia partly composed of remnants of forces involved in the 1994 Rwandan genocide against the Tutsi, Reuters reported on March 30.

Congo: Army Launches Push To Disarm Rwanda-Linked FDLR Rebels

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Dismisses Energy Truce as Strikes Hit Oil Exports

U.S.: California Executive Order Requires Companies With State Contracts To Issue AI Safeguards

Russia: Kremlin Expands VPN Crackdown and Internet Restrictions

South Korea: Lee Considers Rare Emergency Decree To Address Energy Crisis

Australia: Canberra Seeks To Leverage LNG for Refined Fuel

Japan, Indonesia: Tokyo, Jakarta Deepen Energy, Industrial and Defense Ties

Somalia: South West State President Resigns After Federal Troops Seize Baidoa

Africa: Kenyan and Ethiopian Governments Step in Amid Fuel Shortages

Italy, France, Iran: European Countries Signal Reluctance To Support U.S.-Israeli Operations in Iran

Congo: Army Launches Push To Disarm Rwanda-Linked FDLR Rebels

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