Assessments

Mexico

United States

Iran

China

Japan

South Korea

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 3, 2025, in Beijing's Tiananmen Square.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Middle East, Putin Heads to Beijing

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

Afghan protesters burn a Pakistani flag during a demonstration in Helmand Province in 2016.

Economics

Gains from the Afghan Taliban's growing regional ties will be hindered by enduring disputes, logistical constraints, infrastructure security risks, and Pakistan's possible absence from future multilateral engagements.

How the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict Is Redrawing Regional Relations

Snapshots

United Kingdom

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 14, 2026

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Turkey

A digital illustration of the Turkish flag.

Continued high inflation, political uncertainty and bureaucratic hurdles will likely limit the overall effectiveness of the reforms, which come ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Turkey Pursues Tax Reforms Amid Economic Fallout From the Iran War

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

U.S.-China Relations

Qatar

Part of the gas processing facilities of Europe's first helium production pilot plant in Saint-Parize-le-Chatel, France, on Sept. 11, 2024.

Energy

Qatar's halt of helium production due to the Iran war risks causing shortages that disrupt key manufacturing industries, particularly in Asia.

How the Iran War is Choking the World's Helium Flow

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate with the party flags in Kolkata, India, following state elections in West Bengal.

The ruling party's expanding control across state governments will likely gradually strengthen its position in Parliament and accelerate the implementation of citizenship and labor policies.

In India, the BJP's State Election Wins Set the Stage for National Reform

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a speech on April 18, 2026.

Ramaphosa will likely attempt to delay his upcoming impeachment process to facilitate the rise of a reformist ANC successor, though he still may preemptively resign, which would likely result in the collapse of South Africa's coalition government.

South Africa's Top Court Shows Ramaphosa the End of the Road

Kenya

Lebanon

France

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

Latest

Egypt

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Gulf states' push to employ more local citizens in the private sector will help advance their economies and reduce public wage bills, but it will also create new risks for businesses that have traditionally relied on cheap foreign labor.

The Future of Work in the GCC: Localization, Competition and Business Risks

Europe

Ukraine

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

On the first day of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's May 19-20 summit with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Andong, South Korea, the two signed a deal to cooperate on the supply and stockpiling of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and petroleum products, as well as on swap agreements for the same, Reuters reported on May 19.

Japan, South Korea: Leaders Pass Energy Cooperation Deal

China's armed forces covertly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel in drone warfare and combat tactics in late 2025, and some of those soldiers have since returned to fight in Ukraine, Reuters reported on May 19, citing three European intelligence agencies.

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Philippines

Taiwan

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country would likely be involved in "any" Taiwan conflict given Taiwan's geographic proximity and the need to protect the nearly 200,000 Filipinos who live and work there, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Indonesia

Indonesia plans to create a state entity to tighten control over commodity exports, potentially affecting coal, palm oil, nickel, tin, copper and other major commodities that bring in foreign currency, particularly U.S. dollars, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Indonesia: Rupiah Slump Pushes Jakarta Toward More Export Controls

Negotiators from EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament are expected to finalize a compromise deal on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade agreement on May 19, Politico reported on May 18.

EU, U.S.: Interinstitutional Negotiations Near Compromise on Legislation Implementing U.S. Trade Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a May 18 Truth Social post that he had called off a planned May 19 military attack on Iran following requests from Qatari, Saudi and Emirati leaders, who reportedly informed Trump that negotiations on a deal that includes "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN" were progressing.

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

Pakistan has in recent weeks deployed approximately 8,000 troops, a squadron of 16 JF-17 fighters and other aircraft, and a Chinese HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system to Saudi Arabia under the countries' September 2025 mutual defense agreement, Reuters reported on May 18, citing three "security officials" and two "government sources."

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Report Details Military Assets Pakistan Has Deployed to Saudi Arabia Amid the Iran War

Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China on May 19-20 to discuss expanding bilateral cooperation with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, Ria Novosti reported on May 18, citing Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov.

Russia, China: Putin To Discuss Power of Siberia 2 During China Visit

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Moscow since March 2025 on May 17, killing at least three people in the Moscow region, Reuters reported the same day. 

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Drone Barrage Pierces Moscow's Shield

Cuba

Classified U.S. intelligence shared with Axios alleges that Cuba has acquired over 300 military drones and has recently been discussing plans to use them against the Guantanamo Bay U.S. military base and possibly Key West, Florida, Axios reported on May 17. 

Cuba, U.S.: U.S. Intelligence Alleges Cuba May Target Guantanamo Bay, Key West With Military Drones

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan, South Korea: Leaders Pass Energy Cooperation Deal

China, Russia: Beijing Reportedly Provided Covert Military Training to Russian Troops

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Indonesia: Rupiah Slump Pushes Jakarta Toward More Export Controls

EU, U.S.: Interinstitutional Negotiations Near Compromise on Legislation Implementing U.S. Trade Deal

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia: Report Details Military Assets Pakistan Has Deployed to Saudi Arabia Amid the Iran War

Russia, China: Putin To Discuss Power of Siberia 2 During China Visit

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Drone Barrage Pierces Moscow's Shield

Cuba, U.S.: U.S. Intelligence Alleges Cuba May Target Guantanamo Bay, Key West With Military Drones

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