Assessments

Djibouti

United States

Iran

Israel

China

Taiwan

Vietnam

Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iraq

Iraqi women light candles in memory of the victims of the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon during a rally in Baghdad's Tahrir Square on April 2, 2026.

Economics

Energy

Violent spillover from the Iran war will further complicate Iraq's government formation process, while disrupted oil exports will heavily strain Baghdad's finances and raise the risk of unrest.

Iraq Is Caught in the Crossfire of Another Destabilizing War

Snapshots

Myanmar

Myanmar's then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing prepares to deliver a speech during a memorial event at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on March 28, 2026, to mark the first anniversary since a 7.7-magnitude tremor killed more than 3,800 people in Myanmar.

Myanmar's transition from military to civilian governance will not lead to a meaningful transfer of power, nor will it impact the country's civil war.

Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only

Nepal

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Global Trade

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Japan

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 2, 2026

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

Europe

Hungary

 A campaign billboard featuring a portrait of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seen in Budapest's 3rd district on March 27, 2026.

Social Issues

Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections are primed to be the country's most competitive national vote since 2010 and may remove Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party from power.

Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years

Americas

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

Environment, Science & Technology

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Yemen

Houthi loyalists chant slogans on March 27, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen, as they participate in a protest staged to show support for Iran in its ongoing war against the United States and Israel.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis will likely progressively expand their target set beyond Israel if the war intensifies, raising the risk of more economically disruptive attacks on regional shipping and energy infrastructure.

The Implications of the Houthis Joining the Iran War

Latest

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi answers questions at a legislative budget committee session in Tokyo on April 7, 2026, while Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (left) looks on. 

Japan's ability to sustain increased spending on defense and other strategic investments in the coming years will be constrained by sluggish economic growth, high government debt and a challenging geopolitical landscape.

Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality

Peru

The exterior facade of the Legislative Palace of Peru is seen in Lima.

With a record 35 candidates running in the April 12 race and no clear frontrunner, numerous scenarios remain possible, including a win by an anti-establishment outsider, a mainstream right-wing figure or another leftist.

Peru's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025.

New Delhi's decisions to permit specific imports and fast-track minority investments highlight its strategy of addressing critical manufacturing shortages, though relations are unlikely to extend beyond low-level confidence-building measures.

India Cautiously Opens up to Chinese Investment

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Lebanon

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Cyber

Science & Technology

Iranian-linked threat actors are actively seeking to exploit vulnerabilities in internet-facing operational technology components of U.S. critical infrastructure entities, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and several other U.S. federal intelligence agencies warned in an advisory published April 7.

U.S.: Cybersecurity Agency Warns Iranian Hackers Are Targeting U.S. Critical Infrastructure

Russia

Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure, including Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Bloomberg reported on April 7.

Russia, Ukraine: Kyiv Escalates Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure

Singapore

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's Samruk-Energy said it had signed engineering, procurement and construction contracts on Jan. 30 with a Kazakh-Singapore consortium to build combined heat and power plants in Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk, Vlast reported on April 7.

Kazakhstan, Russia: Astana Replaces Russia in Delayed Combined Heat and Power Projects

The upper house of Japan's Diet passed the general budget for fiscal year 2026 on April 7, with 122.3 trillion yen ($766 billion) in spending, up 6.2% from 2025. 

Japan: Budget Passes, Takaichi Prioritizes Defense Over Food Tax Cut

China on April 7 released regulations on the "security of industrial and supply chains," effective immediately, that outline an early warning system for industrial and supply chain security threats, the creation of reserves for key goods and emergency measures to mobilize reserves and supply chains.

China: Supply Chain Security Rules Retaliate Against Foreign Threats

New Zealand

India and New Zealand are reportedly set to sign a free trade agreement on April 24 to boost trade and investment, The Economic Times reported on April 7.

India, New Zealand: Governments Set To Sign FTA on April 24

Nigeria

A coalition of youth movements from Nigeria's southern Rivers state has urged the country's federal government to decentralize pipeline security contracts in the Niger Delta, stressing that this is essential to creating opportunities for youths and that failing to do so would be "neither equitable nor sustainable," THISDAY reported on April 7.

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

Iran cut direct communication with the United States hours ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's late April 7 deadline for Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though talks through mediators are reportedly ongoing, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 7.

U.S., Israel, Iran: Iran Cuts Direct Communication With U.S. After Escalatory Trump Rhetoric

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Vietnam's National Assembly unanimously elected Communist Party General Secretary To Lam as state president and Le Minh Hung as prime minister for the 2026-31 term, AP reported on April 7.

Vietnam: Party and State Leadership Positions Merged

Argentina

An investigation shows wrongdoings in an Argentine public bank's concession of loans to high-ranking Argentine government officials, El Pais reported on April 6. 

Argentina: Corruption Scandals To Undermine Government's Capacity To Pass Pro-Business Legislation

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Reviewing Japan's New Budget: Balancing Spending Hikes and Fiscal Reality

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Cybersecurity Agency Warns Iranian Hackers Are Targeting U.S. Critical Infrastructure

Russia, Ukraine: Kyiv Escalates Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure

Kazakhstan, Russia: Astana Replaces Russia in Delayed Combined Heat and Power Projects

Japan: Budget Passes, Takaichi Prioritizes Defense Over Food Tax Cut

China: Supply Chain Security Rules Retaliate Against Foreign Threats

India, New Zealand: Governments Set To Sign FTA on April 24

Nigeria: Government Faces Conflicting Pressure Surrounding Pipeline Protection Program

U.S., Israel, Iran: Iran Cuts Direct Communication With U.S. After Escalatory Trump Rhetoric

Vietnam: Party and State Leadership Positions Merged

Argentina: Corruption Scandals To Undermine Government's Capacity To Pass Pro-Business Legislation

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