Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 7, 2026

Snapshots

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

Politics

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Algeria

Iran

Spain

Italy

A worker stands on the uploading dock of Cavaou LNG terminal in Fos-sur-Mer, France, on June 22, 2023, while the tanker boat "Lalla Fatma N'Soumer" arrives full of LNG ready to be delivered. 

Economics

Energy

Amid energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, Algeria's ability to capitalize on increased global prices and demand for energy exports will be constrained by limited spare capacity and bureaucratic obstacles.

Structural Constraints Will Limit Algeria's Ability To Capitalize on Tighter Energy Markets

Brazil

Environment, Science & Technology

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in October, his right-wing administration would largely abandon Brazil's environmental and climate commitments, accelerate extractive investments and projects, and pursue strong geopolitical alignment with Washington.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 2

Israel

United Arab Emirates

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

Military & Security

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

U.S.-Iran Relations

If President Lula wins reelection in October, his administration would continue balancing the promotion of green initiatives with the expansion of mining and drilling, while retaining strategic neutrality in the U.S.-China competition.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 1

United Kingdom

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Media

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Podcasts

Why is the United States involved in the mediation process? 

The Decision Advantage: Key Drivers of the Congo-Rwanda Conflict

Australia

Japan

India

An oil products tanker at Muscat Anchorage on March 21, 2026 at Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat, Oman. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.K. Elections, Iran War Resumption Risk

An oil tanker is seen docked in the southeastern Iranian coastal city of Chabahar, on the Gulf of Oman, in February 2019.

Chabahar is poised to transition from an ambitious commercial venture to a symbolic strategic asset, as India seeks to maintain long-term access and regional influence until sanctions conditions become clearer.

Expired U.S. Sanctions Waiver Threatens India's Chabahar Port Project in Iran

What are the key domestic pressures impacting U.S. strategy?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for U.S.-Iran Negotiations

Latest

Trucks haul away ore from a pit in the Chinese-owned Tenke Fungurume Mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in the world, in southeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 17, 2023.

Greater access to Congo's mining sector will likely help the U.S. further secure its cobalt and copper supplies, but ongoing security concerns in the Central African country and China's dominance over global mineral processing will limit the extent of these gains.

Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals

Lebanon

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Ukraine

Russia

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Saudi Arabia

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a three-day ceasefire on May 9-11 and a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap, according to his May 8 Truth Social post. 

Russia, Ukraine: Trump Announces Three-Day Victory Day Ceasefire

Mexico

The U.S. Department of State has started reviewing Mexico's 53 consulates in the United States, CBS News reported on May 7.

U.S., Mexico: State Department To Review Mexico's 53 Consulates in U.S. Territory

Mali

A Kidal-based military officer of the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, said hostilities "will resume soon," while a spokesperson for the Malian general staff said during an April 6 briefing that the junta is pursuing a "strategy of war," RFI reported on May 7. 

Mali: Touareg Rebels Say Fighting Will Resume as Army Declares 'Strategy of War'

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Association of Southeast Asian Nations members agreed to boost maritime cooperation and create a new center for maritime issues after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the region's exposure to shipping disruptions and energy supply shocks, Bloomberg reported on May 8. 

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

Taiwan

Taiwan's opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan approved around $24.9 billion in extra defense spending, roughly two-thirds of the nearly $40 billion requested by the government of President William Lai, after the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party narrowed the package to only U.S. weapons rather than Lai's proposed broader mix of U.S. arms and domestic arms production, the Financial Times reported on May 8.

Taiwan: Reduced Defense Package Funds U.S. Arms, Exposes Domestic Buildout Gap

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva behind closed doors at the White House to speak about trade, security and critical minerals, g1 reported on May 7.

Brazil, U.S.: Trump-Lula Meeting Provides Respite, but Bilateral Tensions Remain

South Africa

South Africa's Constitutional Court nullified the National Assembly's December 2022 decision to reject proposals by an investigation panel for a full impeachment inquiry into President Cyril Ramaphosa's Phala Phala farm scandal, News24 reported on May 8.

South Africa: Constitutional Court Orders Impeachment Committee To Proceed on Phala Phala Scandal

French ambassador to Algeria Stephane Romatet is set to return to Algeria and resume his post on May 8, over a year after France recalled him, The New Arab reported on May 8.

France, Algeria: French Envoy To Return to Algeria in Sign of Warming Relations

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer ruled out resigning after preliminary results showed his Labour Party suffering heavy losses in May 7 local and devolved elections across England, Scotland and Wales, the BBC reported May 8.

U.K.: Starmer Rules Out Resignation After Heavy Labour Losses in Local Elections

European Council President Antonio Costa said the European Union is preparing for potential future talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and is consulting EU leaders on how to organize a possible European approach to Moscow with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's support, the Financial Times reported on May 8.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Prepares Russia Channel as U.S.-Led Talks Stall

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

China

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Trump Announces Three-Day Victory Day Ceasefire

U.S., Mexico: State Department To Review Mexico's 53 Consulates in U.S. Territory

Mali: Touareg Rebels Say Fighting Will Resume as Army Declares 'Strategy of War'

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

Taiwan: Reduced Defense Package Funds U.S. Arms, Exposes Domestic Buildout Gap

Brazil, U.S.: Trump-Lula Meeting Provides Respite, but Bilateral Tensions Remain

South Africa: Constitutional Court Orders Impeachment Committee To Proceed on Phala Phala Scandal

France, Algeria: French Envoy To Return to Algeria in Sign of Warming Relations

U.K.: Starmer Rules Out Resignation After Heavy Labour Losses in Local Elections

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Prepares Russia Channel as U.S.-Led Talks Stall

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