Assessments

Brazil

United States

Iraq

Syria

China

Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

South Sudan

Burundi

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Malawi

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Japan

Europe

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Kenya and Tanzania will compete for the title of East Africa's leading trade gateway, particularly as global demand for Central Africa's critical minerals grows. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 1 

Media

Bangladesh

Nepal

Sri Lanka

Podcasts

Military & Security

How do recent protests in Nepal compare to those in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka?

Essential Geopolitics: Political Instability in South Asia

Israel

Lebanon

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Tayr Debba on Nov. 6, 2025. 

Despite Lebanon's diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions with Israel, stalled progress on Hezbollah's disarmament portends intensified Israeli airstrikes that would risk collapsing the Lebanese government and even triggering another war.

The Growing Risk of a New Hezbollah-Israel War

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addresses the Senate in Rome on Oct. 22, 2025. 

Despite Prime Minister Meloni's success in achieving rare political and financial stability, Italy's weak economic growth and the expiry of EU recovery funds in 2026 may compel her to abandon fiscal prudence ahead of the next election cycle.

Italy Struggles To Translate Political Stability Into Economic Growth

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 6, 2025

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Russia

Entrance signage is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on July 23, 2024.

Energy

Riyadh and its Gulf partners will likely prioritize OPEC+ unity and cooperation with Moscow on oil policy over boosting production to offset Russian supply losses from U.S. sanctions, even if it risks irking Washington.

Why Saudi Arabia Won't Backfill Russia's Sanctioned Oil Exports

Mali

Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025. 

In the likely case that the junta fails to lift the blockade on Bamako by force, rising internal tensions could ultimately fragment the country's security forces, potentially enabling the al Qaeda affiliate JNIM to assert control over the capital.

Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako

Nigeria

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

The COP30 logo at the central building is seen ahead of the COP30 Brazil Amazonia 2025 on Nov. 3, 2025 in Belem, Brazil. 

Social Issues

The 30th U.N. Climate Change Conference is poised to highlight the enduring impasse between developed and developing nations, particularly regarding financial responsibilities and the transition from fossil fuels.

A Breakthrough on Climate Targets is Unlikely at Brazil's COP30

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a photo session for participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 on Sept. 1, 2025, in Tianjin, China.

The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) outlines Beijing's intent to continue current economic policies, pursue new industrial priorities, further securitize Chinese society, escalate Xi's anti-corruption campaign, and use lawfare to fend off foreign trade disputes.

President Xi Lays Out China's Plans for the Next Five Years

Latest

India

Pakistan

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

Chile

Chile's presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei (C) poses with her team after registering her candidacy at the Electoral Service of Chile in Santiago on Aug. 16, 2025.

Far-right candidate Jose Antonio Kast is most likely to win, portending a shift toward pro-business policies and stricter security measures. But a leftist, center-right or ultra-right president could also be elected, each with different visions for Chile's future.

Chile's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

Columns

On Security

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

Serbia

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

Ukraine

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Palestinian Territories

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

In a wide-ranging interview to Russian media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had not announced or prepared any nuclear weapons tests, denying that it is following Washington's lead after U.S. President Donald Trump's comments about restarting U.S. testing, the Russian foreign ministry published on Nov. 12.

Russia: Lavrov Reemerges To Distance Moscow From Nuclear Escalation Talk

Guinea

Guinean junta leader Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya inaugurated the start of iron ore exports from the country's $23 billion Simandou mine at the port of Morebaya, Radio France Internationale reported on Nov. 11.

Guinea: Authorities Inaugurate the Start of Iron Ore Exports From $23B Simandou Mine 

Science & Technology

EU member states and the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement to simplify the Common Agricultural Policy, easing environmental requirements and administrative procedures to support farmers, the European Council announced on Nov. 10.

EU: Bloc To Weaken Green Rules in Agricultural Subsidy Overhaul

The United States is reportedly planning to build a $500 million military base capable of housing several thousand troops near Gaza to monitor the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, The Times of Israel reported on Nov. 11.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Reportedly Planning Base in Israel To Monitor Ceasefire

Venezuela

The Venezuelan government is setting up a guerrilla-style resistance and plans to create chaos in Caracas if the United States attacks the country, Reuters reported on Nov. 11.

Venezuela, U.S., Russia: Caracas Prepares Guerrilla Warfare To Counter U.S. Offensive

stanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek submitted an indictment that accused Turkey's chief opposition presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu of leading a criminal organization and proposed prison sentences ranging from 828 to 2,352 years, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 11.

Turkey: Prosecutor Seeks 2,000-Year Sentence for Imamoglu in Bid To Bar Him From Presidential Run

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Russia fired hundreds of drones and over 30 hard-to-intercept ballistic and cluster munitions, destroying Ukraine's thermal power generation and targeting substations supplying its nuclear plants, Ukrainska Pravda reported on Nov. 10.

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Seeks IAEA Action After Russian Strikes Cripple Power Grid

Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament on Nov. 7 that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would "threaten Japan's survival," a term allowing the deployment of Japan's military, and Chinese consul general in Osaka Xue Jian responded by sharing an article about her comment on X on Nov. 8 and stating, "the dirty neck that sticks itself in must be cut off."

Japan, China: Dueling Comments About Taiwan Show Straining Ties

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., to discuss the removal of additional U.S. sanctions on Syria, regional security in the Middle East and the possibility of Syria joining the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State, Reuters reported on Nov. 10.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: Lavrov Reemerges To Distance Moscow From Nuclear Escalation Talk

Guinea: Authorities Inaugurate the Start of Iron Ore Exports From $23B Simandou Mine

EU: Bloc To Weaken Green Rules in Agricultural Subsidy Overhaul

U.S., Israel: U.S. Reportedly Planning Base in Israel To Monitor Ceasefire

Venezuela, U.S., Russia: Caracas Prepares Guerrilla Warfare To Counter U.S. Offensive

Turkey: Prosecutor Seeks 2,000-Year Sentence for Imamoglu in Bid To Bar Him From Presidential Run

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Seeks IAEA Action After Russian Strikes Cripple Power Grid

Japan, China: Dueling Comments About Taiwan Show Straining Ties

Syria, U.S.: Syria's Interim President Visits the White House

Bolivia: New President Takes Office, Announces Restoration of Ties With U.S.

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