Assessments

Kenya

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

China

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Trucks haul away ore from a pit in the Chinese-owned Tenke Fungurume Mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in the world, in southeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 17, 2023.

Economics

Greater access to Congo's mining sector will likely help the U.S. further secure its cobalt and copper supplies, but ongoing security concerns in the Central African country and China's dominance over global mineral processing will limit the extent of these gains.

Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Ukraine

Russia

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 7, 2026

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

Algeria

Spain

Italy

A worker stands on the uploading dock of Cavaou LNG terminal in Fos-sur-Mer, France, on June 22, 2023, while the tanker boat "Lalla Fatma N'Soumer" arrives full of LNG ready to be delivered. 

Energy

Amid energy supply disruptions in the Middle East, Algeria's ability to capitalize on increased global prices and demand for energy exports will be constrained by limited spare capacity and bureaucratic obstacles.

Structural Constraints Will Limit Algeria's Ability To Capitalize on Tighter Energy Markets

Brazil

Environment, Science & Technology

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

If Flavio Bolsonaro wins in October, his right-wing administration would largely abandon Brazil's environmental and climate commitments, accelerate extractive investments and projects, and pursue strong geopolitical alignment with Washington.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 2

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

If President Lula wins reelection in October, his administration would continue balancing the promotion of green initiatives with the expansion of mining and drilling, while retaining strategic neutrality in the U.S.-China competition.

The Balance Between Environmental and Extractive Policies in Brazil's Presidential Election, Part 1

Latest

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Qatar

Part of the gas processing facilities of Europe's first helium production pilot plant in Saint-Parize-le-Chatel, France, on Sept. 11, 2024.

Qatar's halt of helium production due to the Iran war risks causing shortages that disrupt key manufacturing industries, particularly in Asia.

How the Iran War is Choking the World's Helium Flow

India

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate with the party flags in Kolkata, India, following state elections in West Bengal.

The ruling party's expanding control across state governments will likely gradually strengthen its position in Parliament and accelerate the implementation of citizenship and labor policies.

In India, the BJP's State Election Wins Set the Stage for National Reform

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a speech on April 18, 2026.

Ramaphosa will likely attempt to delay his upcoming impeachment process to facilitate the rise of a reformist ANC successor, though he still may preemptively resign, which would likely result in the collapse of South Africa's coalition government.

South Africa's Top Court Shows Ramaphosa the End of the Road

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

Saudi Arabia

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Cuba

A general view of El Capitolio and the Havana skyline on December 16, 2014, in Havana, Cuba.

A recent unannounced U.S. diplomatic visit to Havana bodes well for a deal that reduces tensions, but Washington's ongoing demands for political and economic reforms will sustain the risk of a U.S. military and/or law enforcement operation.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Progress, but Threat of Military Action Still Looms

Egypt

The exterior facade of the new headquarters of Egypt's central bank is seen at the New Administrative Capital megaproject about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo, on Aug. 1, 2023. 

Egypt will try to avoid submitting to another IMF loan program, which would likely require unpopular austerity and privatization measures. But the escalating economic impact of the Iran war may eventually force its hand.

Iran War Fallout Could Force Egypt to Seek Another Unpopular IMF Bailout

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Science & Technology

Guyana

Venezuela

Venezuela's acting President Delcy Rodriguez said before the International Court of Justice that it is "inevitable and indispensable" for her country to negotiate the disputed Essequibo region with Guyana through political, peaceful and diplomatic means, Deutsche Welle reported on May 11.

Venezuela, Guyana: Rodriguez Calls for Essequibo Negotiation Before the ICJ

Iran's deputy political director ​of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' navy, Mohammad Akbarzadeh, said Tehran had redrawn the boundaries of the Strait of Hormuz to stretch from Sirri Island to Jask, increasing the Iranian definition of the strait's width tenfold, Reuters reported on May 12.

U.S., Iran: Iran Redraws the Strait of Hormuz, Trump Says Ceasefire on 'Life Support'

North Korea

A Russian cargo ship that sank off the coast of Spain in December 2024 may have been carrying submarine nuclear reactor components to North Korea, CNN reported on May 12, citing a Spanish investigation and sources familiar with it.

Russia, North Korea: Sunken Russian Ship Raises Concerns Over Possible Nuclear Technology Transfer

Cyber

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Alex Karp, the CEO of U.S. artificial intelligence company Palantir, as Kyiv expands its use of AI in the war against Russia, Reuters reported on May 12.

Ukraine: Kyiv Expands Palantir AI Partnership as Drone War Raises the Value of Combat Data

Cambodia

Thailand

Cambodia's National Assembly approved a revised version of a 2006 conscription law that was never enforced, raising the length of service from 18 to 24 months and lowering the eligible age range to 18-25 years, AFP reported on May 12.

Cambodia: Military Conscription Law Revived and Enhanced Amid Lingering Border Tensions

Kuwait

Kuwait's Ministry of Defense alleged that a six-person team of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members attempted to commit "hostile acts" on Bubiyan Island on May 1, though the intended target and nature of the IRGC's plan were unclear, AP reported on May 12.

Kuwait, Iran: Kuwait Alleges Attempted Iranian Infiltration Operation on Bubiyan Island

Turkey intends to fully reopen its Akcakale border crossing with Syria on May 12 for the first time since the start of Syria's civil war in 2011, The New Arab reported the same day, citing officials.

Syria: Turkey To Reopen Civilian Border as EU Formalizes Sanctions Relief

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Over the last two months, the United Arab Emirates has carried out multiple military strikes against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 11, citing people familiar with the matter. 

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

Haiti

Haitian Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime said in a radio interview that "security conditions are not ​met at the level for us to have elections in August," Reuters reported on May 11.

Haiti: Elections Face Further Delays Amid Prolonged Security Challenges

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a range of measures, including fuel-saving efforts, expanded work-from-home arrangements, and curbs on nonessential travel and gold buying, as rising global energy prices increase pressure on India's foreign exchange reserves, Reuters reported on May 10.

India: Modi Calls for Limits on Fuel, Travel and Imports To Help Conserve Foreign Exchange Reserves

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Venezuela, Guyana: Rodriguez Calls for Essequibo Negotiation Before the ICJ

U.S., Iran: Iran Redraws the Strait of Hormuz, Trump Says Ceasefire on 'Life Support'

Russia, North Korea: Sunken Russian Ship Raises Concerns Over Possible Nuclear Technology Transfer

Ukraine: Kyiv Expands Palantir AI Partnership as Drone War Raises the Value of Combat Data

Cambodia: Military Conscription Law Revived and Enhanced Amid Lingering Border Tensions

Kuwait, Iran: Kuwait Alleges Attempted Iranian Infiltration Operation on Bubiyan Island

Syria: Turkey To Reopen Civilian Border as EU Formalizes Sanctions Relief

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

Haiti: Elections Face Further Delays Amid Prolonged Security Challenges

India: Modi Calls for Limits on Fuel, Travel and Imports To Help Conserve Foreign Exchange Reserves

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support