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Turkey

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

How does Turkey's political uncertainty affect its economic outlook?

Essential Geopolitics: Turkey's Current Political Environment

Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 15, 2025

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on Feb. 27, 2025. 

While the disbandment will reduce the near-term risk of Kurdish militant attacks, the peace process could still collapse, which would rob the government of the political support it needs to secure Erdogan's 2028 reelection bid.

What the PKK's Disbandment Means for Turkish Politics and Security

India

Pakistan

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

Economics

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Snapshots

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

China

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Global Trade

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

Russia

This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While direct talks mark a notable development in the peace process, Moscow will not make meaningful concessions unless it faces bolder action from the West (particularly the U.S.), like asset seizures and increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Travels to the Middle East, India and Pakistan's Ongoing Conflict

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Philippines

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

United Kingdom

U.S. President Donald Trump -- flanked by Vice President JD Vance (left) and Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the United States (right) -- holds a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office of the White House on May 8, 2025. 

The agreement's narrow scope and quota system suggest the White House remains intent on restricting imports, meaning tariff relief for most other countries reaching deals will also be limited.

Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.

Latest

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Energy

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One on May 14, 2025, as he flies to Doha, Qatar, for his first trip to the Middle East since returning to the White House. 

Trump's decision to lift sanctions will help kickstart Syria's war-torn economy and strengthen its new government, but sectarian infighting, Israeli aggression and a resurging Islamic State could still hamper progress.

In Syria, the Promise and Limits of U.S. Sanctions Relief

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Global Elections

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Israel

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Europe

Germany

Poland

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

United Arab Emirates

Science & Technology

UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan reaffirmed the country's commitment to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion framework for investment in the United States, including in artificial intelligence and semiconductors, initially reached in March, Reuters reported on May 15.

U.S., UAE: United Arab Emirates Reaffirms AI Investment, Deepening Partnership

Indonesia

The Indonesian military conducted an operation on May 14 in Papua island's Intan Jaya administrative zone that resulted in the deaths of 18 suspected separatist militants and three civilians, as well as the evacuation of around 1,000 residents and the seizure of a sizable cache of weapons and ammunition, The Jakarta Post reported the next day.

Indonesia: Military Operation in West Papua Kills More Than 20

Colombia

The Colombian Senate rejected, in a 49-47 vote, President Gustavo Petro's proposal to hold a public referendum on his plan to overhaul the country's labor laws, El Tiempo reported May 14.

Colombia: Senate Rejects Petro's Labor Reform Referendum, Deepening Political Gridlock 

Australia

Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said Canberra would resist U.S. pressure to reduce trade with China, emphasizing that China remains Australia’s largest export market by a wide margin, The Australian Financial Review reported on May 15.

Australia, U.S., China: Canberra Rejects U.S. Trade Pressure on Beijing

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu approved the establishment and recruitment of armed forest guards to secure Nigeria's 1,129 forests, Sahara Reporters reported on May 14. 

Nigeria: Armed Guards To Reclaim Nigeria's Forests From Terrorists, Kidnappers

Ethiopia

The National Election Board of Ethiopia revoked the legal status of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), citing its failure to meet the conditions tied to its registration as a party under "special consideration," Addis Standard reported May 14.

Ethiopia: Election Board Revokes TPLF's Legal Status 

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to hold a trade and investment summit with African heads of state and government before the end of 2025, The Africa Report reported May 14.

U.S., Africa: Trump to Hold U.S.-Africa Trade and Investment Summit by Year-End 

Cyber

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has withdrawn plans for new rules that limit U.S. data brokers' ability to sell sensitive information, Wired reported May 14, based on a notice set to publish May 15 in the Federal Register.

U.S.: CFPB Scraps Plans to Protect Americans From Data Brokers

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Belgium

The European Union continues to demand further British concessions on fishing rights and youth mobility as part of a new, broader EU-U.K. post-Brexit cooperation framework, only days ahead of the London U.K.-EU summit on May 19, delaying finalization of a draft summit communique, the Financial Times reported May 15.

EU, U.K.: Post-Brexit Disagreements Continue to Complicate EU-U.K. Security and Defense Pact

The European Commission is considering simplifying the EU Artificial Intelligence Act's implementation following an expected upcoming review, though no fundamental changes to the rules are expected to occur, Politico reported on May 13, citing Kilian Gross, head of the commission’s AI policy unit.

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., UAE: United Arab Emirates Reaffirms AI Investment, Deepening Partnership

Indonesia: Military Operation in West Papua Kills More Than 20

Colombia: Senate Rejects Petro's Labor Reform Referendum, Deepening Political Gridlock

Australia, U.S., China: Canberra Rejects U.S. Trade Pressure on Beijing

Nigeria: Armed Guards To Reclaim Nigeria's Forests From Terrorists, Kidnappers

Ethiopia: Election Board Revokes TPLF's Legal Status

U.S., Africa: Trump to Hold U.S.-Africa Trade and Investment Summit by Year-End

U.S.: CFPB Scraps Plans to Protect Americans From Data Brokers

EU, U.K.: Post-Brexit Disagreements Continue to Complicate EU-U.K. Security and Defense Pact

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

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