Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 26, 2025

Media

Iran

Israel

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

What cyber limitations and capabilities do Iran and Israel have?

Essential Geopolitics: Increased Risk of Cyberattacks as Conflict With Iran Escalates

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Qatar

A photo taken on June 23, 2025, shows the remnants of an Iranian missile intercepted over Qatar. 

Absent further retaliation, Iran's June 23 attack offers a path to de-escalation, but there is still a chance, albeit slim, that additional U.S. strikes trigger a wider conflict.

With a Telegraphed Attack on a U.S. Base in Qatar, Iran Offers an Off-Ramp To Ease Tensions

Europe

Netherlands

Spain

The entrance of the building where the 2025 NATO summit will be held is seen in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 22, 2025.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The June 24-25 summit will likely yield a political agreement on higher defense spending and highlight Europe's move toward greater defense autonomy, though structural and financial limitations will make it hard to maintain this shift over time. 

Previewing the 2025 NATO Summit

A Northrop B-2 Spirit on July 4, 2020, near the White House in Washington. 

Energy

Even if carefully calibrated, Iranian retaliation of any form will risk inviting more U.S. strikes and greater escalation that could result in Iran following through on more of its significant threats against the regional oil and gas sector and/or the United States.

Iran's Retaliation Against the U.S. Will Likely Be Limited, but Will Still Risk Escalation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Ukraine

Russia

Israeli air defense systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv early on June 18, 2025. 

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict Rages On, NATO Holds Annual Summit

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Sub-Saharan Africa

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024. 

Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan into EU policy to gain support for its immediate goals of energy security and migration control, but structural issues will likely limit Rome's long-term influence in Africa.

Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025

Palestinian Territories

A group of armed Israeli soldiers stands in a narrow alley of the Old City of Hebron, West Bank, on May 31, 2025. 

While it will likely curb immediate terror threats, the crackdown will also fuel Palestinian grievances, increasing the risk of a larger uprising and internal Israeli government tensions.

To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank

Mali

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

Latest

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

China

New Zealand

People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day. 

Prime Minister Luxon's recent trip to China marked a high-stakes diplomatic mission aimed at both deepening economic ties with Beijing and signaling New Zealand's more assertive regional posture.

New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference at a hotel in Paris on June 24, 2025. 

The collapse of negotiations over potential changes to President Macron's controversial pensions reform will increase the risk of more no-confidence votes against the government, budgetary deadlock and another early election.

In France, the Collapse of Pension Reform Talks Risks Worsening Political Instability

Iranian missiles aimed at targets in Israel pass through the sky over the West Bank on June 17, 2025. 

Even if the ceasefire holds in the coming weeks and months, outstanding U.S. and Israeli concerns with Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear programs could reignite hostilities.

The Iran-Israel Ceasefire Will Remain Fragile Amid Unresolved Disputes

Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. 

The Israel-Iran conflict is set to evolve into a short war of attrition as Iran pits its degraded missile stocks against Israel's dwindling air defense systems.

Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War

Smoke rises from a location allegedly targeted in Israel's wave of strikes June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran's Conflict Intensifies, Raising the Risk of a Regional War

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

Global Trade

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

U.S.-China Relations

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban said it had terminated its 25-year, $540 million oil extraction and development contract with China-based Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. on June 17, Nikkei reported on June 25.

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed that she will pursue electoral reform aimed at reducing public funds for the National Electoral Institute and political parties and changing the system for electing legislators, La Jornada reported on June 24.

Mexico: Government To Continue Consolidating Power, Curbing Institutional Checks and Balances

Science & Technology

A U.S. federal judge ruled that artificial intelligence company Anthropic did not violate copyright law by training its Claude chatbot on copyrighted books, AP reported on June 24.

U.S.: Anthropic AI Wins Copyright Lawsuit

The European Union plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States if the Trump administration insists on maintaining a 10% baseline tariff on EU goods even after a trade deal, Bloomberg reported on June 24.

EU, U.S.: EU May Implement Tariffs on U.S. Goods, Even if Negotiators Reach a Trade Deal

Egypt

Jordan

Israel's Chevron-operated Leviathan and Karish gas fields resumed operations on June 25 after the June 24 Israel-Iran ceasefire went into effect, Reuters reported on June 25.

Israel: Largest Gas Field Resumes Operations After Ceasefire

As widely expected, national leaders representing the 32 NATO members officially endorsed a proposal to raise defense and related spending to 5% of gross domestic product by 2035, The Guardian reported on June 25. 

Global: NATO Leaders Officially Endorse 5% of GDP Spending Target

Iran's parliament unanimously passed a bill suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and requiring IAEA inspectors to gain approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council before conducting inspections, Reuters reported on June 25.

Iran: Parliament Formally Passes Bill To Restrict Cooperation With IAEA

Canada

Australia

United Kingdom

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and British Defense Secretary John Healey sit together for the AUKUS Defense Ministers Meeting at Old Royal Naval College on Sept. 26, 2024, in London, England.

Despite growing U.S. skepticism, strong imperatives to counter China's maritime presence will likely lead Washington to see a revised version of the AUKUS defense pact through.

U.S. Review of AUKUS Pillar I Puts Pact on Shaky Ground

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The Geopolitics of Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

The United States and Mexico are discussing a quota system to reduce tariffs on the volume of U.S. imports of Mexican steel, Bloomberg reported June 24. 

United States, Mexico: U.S. Quota on Mexican Steel May Ease Costs but Uncertainty Remains

China is reassessing the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline with Russia in light of the recent Israel-Iran conflict, which threatened oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to "people close to Beijing's decision-making" as cited by The Wall Street Journal on June 25.

China, Russia: Iran Tensions Potentially Revive Interest in Power of Siberia 2

Japan

Japan conducted its first domestic live fire drill of a long-range missile, specifically the Type 88 surface-to-air missile with a range of approximately 150-200 kilometers, Asahi Shimbun reported June 25. The test marks the first time a missile exceeding 100 kilometers in range has been tested within Japan's borders.

Japan: Domestic Missile Test Highlights Shift Toward Independent Deterrence Posture

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Mexico: Government To Continue Consolidating Power, Curbing Institutional Checks and Balances

U.S.: Anthropic AI Wins Copyright Lawsuit

EU, U.S.: EU May Implement Tariffs on U.S. Goods, Even if Negotiators Reach a Trade Deal

Israel: Largest Gas Field Resumes Operations After Ceasefire

Global: NATO Leaders Officially Endorse 5% of GDP Spending Target

Iran: Parliament Formally Passes Bill To Restrict Cooperation With IAEA

United States, Mexico: U.S. Quota on Mexican Steel May Ease Costs but Uncertainty Remains

China, Russia: Iran Tensions Potentially Revive Interest in Power of Siberia 2

Japan: Domestic Missile Test Highlights Shift Toward Independent Deterrence Posture

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support