Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Military & Security

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 5, 2026

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (top, 5th from left) speaks during the election campaign rally on Jan. 29, 2026, in Himeji, Japan. 

Economics

Politics

Outcomes for the Feb. 8 snap ballot include a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, a weakened conservative coalition and an opposition win.

Japan's Lower House Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Snapshots

Turkey

Europe

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

Energy

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

India

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Iraq

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (center) delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Baghdad ahead of parliamentary elections on Nov. 7, 2025. 

If former Prime Minister al-Maliki overcomes challenges to form a new cabinet, it would likely deepen sectarian divisions, embolden Iran-backed militias and increase Iraq's exposure to U.S. financial and/or military pressure.

In Iraq, the Potential Return of a Divisive Leader Raises Alarm

Pakistan

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

Iran

A man walks past a mural painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 1, 2026.

Despite recent momentum toward restarting talks, a deal will likely remain elusive due to the U.S.'s maximalist demands and Iran's red lines, sustaining the risk of U.S. (and likely Israeli) military action in the coming weeks. 

Can New U.S.-Iran Talks Avert a Greater Conflict?

U.S.-Iran Relations

Colombia

Iranian newspapers one of them (R) with a headline in Persian reading "Iran is ready for a big response," Jan. 27 in Tehran in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Colombian Presidents Meet, The Threat of U.S. Strikes on Iran

Kazakhstan

The national flag of Kazakhstan waves in the wind.

Abolishing the Senate and reintroducing the vice presidency may curb the immediate risk of insider-led coups, but the measures are unlikely to resolve succession uncertainty before President Tokayev's term ends in 2029 and could ultimately increase political volatility.

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Reforms Could Reshape -- and Destabilize -- Its Political Future

Israel

Syria

A fighter of the Syrian Democratic Forces stands on a road between the Syrian villages of Safa and Tell Brak on Jan. 24, 2026.

The government's deal with the Kurdish-led SDF will reduce sectarian tensions, accelerate a U.S. withdrawal and open space for a Syria-Israel security pact, though risks from local violence and the Islamic State remain.

What a Kurdish Integration Deal Means for Syria's Stability

Mozambique

Rwanda

Tanzania

A Rwandan policeman (R) and a Rwandan soldier (L) guard TotalEnergies' Mozambique LNG project in Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique, on Sept. 29, 2022.

Mozambique's LNG projects will likely progress in 2026 amid a safer security environment, but the economic windfall remains years away.

Mozambique's LNG Sector Turns a Corner Amid Megaproject Reboot

Latest

Indonesia

Visitors take pictures in front of an electronic board displaying falling stock prices at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta on Jan. 29, 2026.

The episode exposes structural risks embedded in the president's governance that could threaten investor confidence -- and with it, Indonesia's economic growth and manufacturing competitiveness.

Lessons Learned From Indonesia's Market Rout

Thailand

People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.

Thailand's Feb. 8 general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security and economic pressures.

Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance

China

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

U.S.-China Relations

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Costa Rica

The candidates running in Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election participate in a debate at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in San Jose, Costa Rica, on Jan. 11, 2026. 

Although the president cannot run for reelection, his hand-picked successor will likely win the vote, keeping the right wing at the helm.

Costa Rica's Upcoming Election Will Likely Yield Policy Continuity

Taiwan

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Columns

On Geopolitics

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

The Central Asia-United States business forum, or B5+1, concluded in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Feb. 5, bringing together government officials and private sector representatives to advance economic cooperation across the region, Eurasianet reported Feb. 6.

Central Asia, U.S.: Washington Presses Economic Outreach at B5+1 Forum

Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy head of Russia's military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, was shot and wounded by an unidentified assailant at his Moscow apartment building on Feb. 6, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

Russia: GRU's Second-in-Command Shot in Moscow

Taiwan's defense ministry said it will ask the United States to extend deadlines for signing several arms purchase agreements because parliament has still not approved the required funding, Reuters reports Feb. 6.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

Argentina

The United States and Argentina sealed a trade and investment deal that includes the elimination of hundreds of tariffs on each other's goods, Clarin reported Feb. 5.

U.S., Argentina: Countries Reach Trade And Investment Deal

Lithuania

China said it was open to resuming dialogue with Lithuania after Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene said the country's 2021 decision to allow Taiwan to open a de facto embassy in Vilnius was a mistake, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

Australia

Australia and Indonesia signed a security treaty committing both countries to consult the other if either faces a threat, following talks between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta, The Jakarta Post reported Feb. 6.

Australia, Indonesia: Security Pact Deepens Strategic Relationship

In southern Yemen, Saudi Arabia is planning to commit approximately $3 billion to replace subsidies and support previously provided by the United Arab Emirates, Reuters reported Feb. 5, citing Saudi and Yemeni officials.

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Commits $3 Billion to Support Southern Yemen After UAE's Withdrawal

Oman

Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran took place Feb. 6 in Oman, with the two sides agreeing to follow-on talks in Oman, CNN reported.

Iran, U.S.: Indirect Discussions in Oman Conclude, Delegations Agree on More Talks

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Philippines

Serbia

Bangladesh

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The European Commission issued a preliminary ruling Feb. 6 that found that TikTok's infinite scroll, autoplay features and recommendation algorithm constituted an "addictive design," and that it must make changes to its core features or face fines up to 6% of its annual global revenue, The New York Times reported.

EU: Regulators Say TikTok's 'Addictive Design' Violates Online Safety Laws

Eswatini

South African Minister for Trade and Industry Parks Tau signed a framework agreement with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Wentao, that paves the way for South African exports to gain duty-free access to the Chinese market, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

South Africa: Framework Agreement for Duty-Free Access With China Signed

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Central Asia, U.S.: Washington Presses Economic Outreach at B5+1 Forum

Russia: GRU's Second-in-Command Shot in Moscow

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Seeks Extension for U.S. Arms Deal

U.S., Argentina: Countries Reach Trade And Investment Deal

Lithuania, China: Vilnius Signals Shift Toward Normalizing Relations With Beijing

Australia, Indonesia: Security Pact Deepens Strategic Relationship

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Commits $3 Billion to Support Southern Yemen After UAE's Withdrawal

Iran, U.S.: Indirect Discussions in Oman Conclude, Delegations Agree on More Talks

EU: Regulators Say TikTok's 'Addictive Design' Violates Online Safety Laws

South Africa: Framework Agreement for Duty-Free Access With China Signed

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