Assessments

Cameroon

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

France

Palestinians on Oct. 10 on Al-Rashid road headed toward Gaza City. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might visit the Middle East just as 20 hostages are meant to be released by Hamas after surviving two years in captivity as the White House pushes for the solidification of a frail ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon

Tetsuo Saito, the leader of Japan's Komeito party, attends a meeting at the Diet in Tokyo on Oct. 10, 2025.

The collapse of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's longstanding coalition with Komeito increases the likelihood of a fragile opposition government taking power, which could strain U.S.-Japan trade ties while improving Tokyo's regional diplomatic prospects.

End of an Era: Japan's 26-Year Coalition Government Falls Apart

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

What should companies be on the lookout for through the end of 2025 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: Trends From RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Columns

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Despite the proliferation of digital assets, privately issued cryptocurrencies are unlikely to replace central bank-issued money in stable economies because they fail to sufficiently fulfill the core functions of money.

Privately Issued Cryptocurrencies Will Not Replace Fiat Currency

Snapshots

Egypt

Qatar

Turkey

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 9, 2025

Morocco

Demonstrators lift banners during a youth-led protest demanding reforms to public healthcare and education in Casablanca, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2025.

The government will likely make some, mostly symbolic, concessions to the youth-led protest movement, which already appears to be weakening, but ongoing grievances related to economic inequality will sustain the risk of future mass protests.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Bangladesh

India

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

China

South Korea

Sanae Takaichi, the newly elected LDP leader, on Oct. 4 in Tokyo.

Takaichi will lean into populism, spurring near-term growth but exacerbating long-term economic challenges, while her nationalism will bolster Japan's military and boost U.S. ties even as it strains those with Japan's neighbors.

Japan's Conservative Takaichi Set To Become Next Prime Minister

Latest

Afghanistan

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Ukraine

Russia

Russian flag on a cracked wall, illustrating an economic decline with a downward arrow. 

Energy

Despite high consumer confidence, underlying economic indicators show a significant contraction in non-defense industrial production, slowing consumption and falling investment, signaling that the Kremlin's war economy is steadily deteriorating.

Russia's War Economy Is Faltering

Bolivia

Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025. 

With two right-wing candidates facing off in the Oct. 19 runoff, Bolivia is set for a significant policy shift toward austerity at home and a pro-Western foreign policy.

Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote

Global Elections

Peru

Then-Peruvian President Dina Boluarte arrives to deliver her address to the nation on Peru's Independence Day at the National Congress in Lima on July 28, 2025.

The interim government will struggle to quickly reduce crime levels and pass major structural reforms, while the upcoming presidential election will fuel policy uncertainty due to the crowded field of candidates.

Boluarte's Impeachment Unlikely To Improve Peru's Political and Security Climate

Europe

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu arrives to hold a press conference in Chisinau on Sept. 29, 2025, after her pro-EU party secured a victory in parliamentary elections. 

Despite a clear win for the pro-EU Action and Solidarity in the Sept. 28 parliamentary election, Moldova's path to EU accession remains fraught with obstacles, including the unresolved Transdniestria conflict, entrenched corruption and the need for politically sensitive judicial reforms.

Even With PAS Victory, Moldova's Road to EU Membership Remains Long

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

U.S.-China Relations

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

Poland

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's government confirmed that Azerbaijan's state oil company, SOCAR, is in advanced negotiations to join the Dunga oil field project, an asset formerly majority-owned by French supermajor TotalEnergies, Report Information Agency reported on Oct. 14.

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan: Governments Deepen Energy Ties to Power Middle Corridor

In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency stated that Ukrainian drone strikes will keep Russia's oil refineries operating at reduced capacity until at least mid-2026, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Strikes To Cause Long-Term Damage to Russian Oil

Cambodia

Thailand

The U.S. Trump administration is conditioning ongoing U.S.-Thailand trade negotiations on Bangkok's ability to reach a lasting ceasefire with Cambodia, effectively linking tariff relief to peace along their contested border, the Bangkok Post reported on Oct. 14.

Thailand, U.S.: Washington Conditions Trade Talks on Lasting Ceasefire With Cambodia

Mexico

The United States cancelled the visas of at least 50 Mexican politicians and government officials over alleged links to cartels, Reuters reported on Oct. 14.

Mexico, U.S.: Washington Revokes Mexican Politicians' Visas Amid Escalating Anti-Drug Efforts

Madagascar

Malagasy Col. Michael Randrianirina announced that the military would "take over" government affairs, suspend the constitution and dissolve all institutions except the National Assembly, Madagascar's lower house, Reuters reported on Oct. 14. 

Madagascar: Military Announces Takeover After Assembly Impeaches President Rajoelina

Newly reappointed French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu delivered his first policy address to the National Assembly, announcing the suspension of President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform until January 2028 and reiterating his pledge not to use Article 49.3 to pass a budget without a parliamentary vote, Le Figaro reported on Oct. 14. 

France: Prime Minister Freezes Pension Reform, Plans to Unveil 2026 Budget

Israel is refusing to reopen the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt on Oct. 15 in accordance with the first phase of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on Oct. 10, due to Hamas' refusal to release the majority of the remaining 24 bodies of deceased hostages in Gaza, though four more are expected to be released on Oct. 14, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 14.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Refuses To Reopen Rafah Border Crossing, Decreases Humanitarian Aid

Zimbabwe

In a leaked memo to the politburo of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front party, or ZANU-PF, Zimbabwean Vice President Constantino Chiwenga accused four high-profile allies of Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa of having looted over $3.2 billion from state coffers and warned Mnangagwa that the conditions that led to the ousting of former President Robert Mugabe were being replicated, New Zimbabwe reported on Oct. 13.

Zimbabwe: Vice President's Memo Against President's Allies Leaked as War Veteran Calls for Fresh Protests 

Opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary preemptively declared a "landslide victory" in Cameroon's Oct. 12 presidential election, challenging long-time incumbent Paul Biya to acknowledge defeat and "respect the truth of the ballot box," Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 14.

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Preemptively Declares Himself Winner of Election

Outgoing French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrives to deliver a statement at the Hotel Matignon in Paris after submitting his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Oct. 6, 2025. 

Lecornu's resignation leaves President Macron with few good options to ease the ongoing political gridlock over the budget, portending further market volatility, social unrest and, potentially, a fiscal crisis.

French Political Crisis Deepens as Another Prime Minister Resigns

Science & Technology

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

Nigeria

Nigerian lawmakers submitted a bill that would bring forward the country's next general election from February or March 2027 to November 2026, The Punch reported on Oct. 13.

Nigeria: Lawmakers Propose Bringing Forward Next General Election to November 2026 

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan: Governments Deepen Energy Ties to Power Middle Corridor

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Strikes To Cause Long-Term Damage to Russian Oil

Thailand, U.S.: Washington Conditions Trade Talks on Lasting Ceasefire With Cambodia

Mexico, U.S.: Washington Revokes Mexican Politicians' Visas Amid Escalating Anti-Drug Efforts

Madagascar: Military Announces Takeover After Assembly Impeaches President Rajoelina

France: Prime Minister Freezes Pension Reform, Plans to Unveil 2026 Budget

Israel, Gaza: Israel Refuses To Reopen Rafah Border Crossing, Decreases Humanitarian Aid

Zimbabwe: Vice President's Memo Against President's Allies Leaked as War Veteran Calls for Fresh Protests

Cameroon: Opposition Leader Preemptively Declares Himself Winner of Election

Nigeria: Lawmakers Propose Bringing Forward Next General Election to November 2026

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