Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 16, 2025

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Military & Security

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

Snapshots

Bolivia

Supporters of Bolivia's presidential candidate for the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), Rodrigo Paz, listen to him speak during a campaign rally in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sept. 30, 2025. 

Economics

Politics

With two right-wing candidates facing off in the Oct. 19 runoff, Bolivia is set for a significant policy shift toward austerity at home and a pro-Western foreign policy.

Bolivia Set for Swing to Right in Presidential Runoff Vote

Global Elections

Peru

Then-Peruvian President Dina Boluarte arrives to deliver her address to the nation on Peru's Independence Day at the National Congress in Lima on July 28, 2025.

The interim government will struggle to quickly reduce crime levels and pass major structural reforms, while the upcoming presidential election will fuel policy uncertainty due to the crowded field of candidates.

Boluarte's Impeachment Unlikely To Improve Peru's Political and Security Climate

Ukraine

Russia

Russian flag on a cracked wall, illustrating an economic decline with a downward arrow. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite high consumer confidence, underlying economic indicators show a significant contraction in non-defense industrial production, slowing consumption and falling investment, signaling that the Kremlin's war economy is steadily deteriorating.

Russia's War Economy Is Faltering

Cameroon

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

France

Palestinians on Oct. 10 on Al-Rashid road headed toward Gaza City. U.S. President Donald Trump said he might visit the Middle East just as 20 hostages are meant to be released by Hamas after surviving two years in captivity as the White House pushes for the solidification of a frail ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Tries To Solidify the Gaza Ceasefire, a Presidential Vote in Cameroon

Tetsuo Saito, the leader of Japan's Komeito party, attends a meeting at the Diet in Tokyo on Oct. 10, 2025.

The collapse of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's longstanding coalition with Komeito increases the likelihood of a fragile opposition government taking power, which could strain U.S.-Japan trade ties while improving Tokyo's regional diplomatic prospects.

End of an Era: Japan's 26-Year Coalition Government Falls Apart

Media

Podcasts

Global Trade

What should companies be on the lookout for through the end of 2025 and beyond?

Essential Geopolitics: Trends From RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Columns

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

Despite the proliferation of digital assets, privately issued cryptocurrencies are unlikely to replace central bank-issued money in stable economies because they fail to sufficiently fulfill the core functions of money.

Privately Issued Cryptocurrencies Will Not Replace Fiat Currency

Egypt

Qatar

Turkey

People react at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv on Oct. 9, 2025, following news of a new Gaza ceasefire deal.

Violence in Gaza will almost certainly decrease as both Israel and Hamas are pressured to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, keeping the truce intact in the coming days and possibly weeks.

After Two Years of War, a Permanent Gaza Ceasefire?

Latest

Iran

Lebanon

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.

The ceasefire will allow Israel to redirect resources away from Gaza toward other regional threats, particularly Iran, while temporarily easing diplomatic tensions with Egypt and the UAE.

The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire

Canada

India

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

North Korea

Vietnam

Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un participate in a ceremony at the Pyongyang Sports Palace on Oct. 9, 2025, during Lam's three-day official visit to North Korea.

To Lam's visit injects fresh diplomatic energy into the long-stalled relationship with North Korea and fits into Pyongyang's gradual reemergence as an active player in regional diplomacy.

Vietnam's Lam Extends Diplomatic Balancing Act With Rare North Korea Visit

Europe

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu arrives to hold a press conference in Chisinau on Sept. 29, 2025, after her pro-EU party secured a victory in parliamentary elections. 

Despite a clear win for the pro-EU Action and Solidarity in the Sept. 28 parliamentary election, Moldova's path to EU accession remains fraught with obstacles, including the unresolved Transdniestria conflict, entrenched corruption and the need for politically sensitive judicial reforms.

Even With PAS Victory, Moldova's Road to EU Membership Remains Long

China

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

U.S.-China Relations

On Geopolitics

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Bangladesh

Nepal

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Iraq

Jordan

Morocco

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Mongolia

Mongolia's State Great Khural, its unicameral parliament, voted to dismiss Prime Minister Gombojav Zandanshatar, who announced he would step down once the president appoints his successor, which is set to happen within 30 days, Le Monde reported on Oct. 17. 

Mongolia: Parliament Votes Out Another Premier, This Time Over Coal Policy

Namibia

South Africa

South Africa's Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment informed an oil major that appeals lodged against its Environmental Authorisation, a necessary approval to conduct oil exploration works, would be temporarily "held in abeyance," News24 reported on Oct. 17.

South Africa: Government Effectively Freezes Issuance of New Oil Permits Pending Supreme Court Ruling 

Indonesia

The Indonesian army launched an operation in Soanggama village, located in Central Papua province's Intan Jaya regency, and claimed to kill at least 14 suspected militants of the West Papua Liberation Army, the military wing of the separatist Free Papua Organization, AP reported on Oct. 16.

Indonesia: Army Clash With Papuan Rebels Kills 14

Representatives from 25 political parties and alliances in Bangladesh, including major groups such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, signed the July National Charter 2025 -- named after the national uprisings of July 2024 -- which lays out a roadmap for constitutional amendments, legal reforms and the introduction of new legislation, The Business Standard reported on Oct. 17. 

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Brazil's Foreign Affairs Minister Mauro Vieira met at the White House, g1 reported on Oct. 17.

U.S., Brazil: High-Level Bilateral Meeting Paves the Way for Trade Talks To Start

Science & Technology

European chip maker Nexperia notified European automobile manufacturers and their suppliers on Oct. 10 that it could not guarantee delivery of the chips they need for their automotive supply chains, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, or ACEA, revealed in an Oct. 16 statement.

Europe, U.S.: Nexperia Tells Automakers It Cannot Guarantee Supply of Chips

Russia launched a massive overnight barrage of drones and missiles targeting Ukraine's gas and power infrastructure in the Poltava, Vinnytsia, Sumy and Kharkiv regions, forcing shutdowns at key production sites and deepening nationwide electricity deficits, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 16. 

Ukraine, Russia: Sustained Russian Strikes Threaten Ukraine's Energy Security, Testing National Resilience

On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would halt oil purchases from Russia, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 17.

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

The African Union announced the suspension of Madagascar's membership from the continental bloc in response to the Malagasy military's Oct. 14 coup, warned of sanctions against the country's new military rulers and called for a civilian-led transitional government that organizes new elections as soon as possible, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 16.

Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump expects Japan to stop importing Russian energy, according to an Oct. 15 X post from Bessent.

Japan, U.S.: Request for Russian Energy Curbs Risks Ties With New Government

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 9, 2025

Demonstrators lift banners during a youth-led protest demanding reforms to public healthcare and education in Casablanca, Morocco, on Oct. 6, 2025.

The government will likely make some, mostly symbolic, concessions to the youth-led protest movement, which already appears to be weakening, but ongoing grievances related to economic inequality will sustain the risk of future mass protests.

Moroccans' Socioeconomic Grievances Will Persist, Even if Current Gen Z Protests Abate

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mongolia: Parliament Votes Out Another Premier, This Time Over Coal Policy

South Africa: Government Effectively Freezes Issuance of New Oil Permits Pending Supreme Court Ruling

Indonesia: Army Clash With Papuan Rebels Kills 14

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

U.S., Brazil: High-Level Bilateral Meeting Paves the Way for Trade Talks To Start

Europe, U.S.: Nexperia Tells Automakers It Cannot Guarantee Supply of Chips

Ukraine, Russia: Sustained Russian Strikes Threaten Ukraine's Energy Security, Testing National Resilience

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Madagascar: African Union Suspends Madagascar Over Military Coup

Japan, U.S.: Request for Russian Energy Curbs Risks Ties With New Government

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