Assessments

Peru

United States

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 23, 2026

China

A decorative plate featuring an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen behind a statue of late communist leader Mao Zedong at a souvenir store next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on Feb. 27, 2018. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

China will remain a geopolitical enigma to the West as Beijing turns inward to insulate the CCP from the influence of external powers, an exercise that history suggests will threaten national prosperity and regime stability.

The Modern Geopolitics of China

U.S.-China Relations

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

A 20 euro note.

The European Union is likely to advance banking reforms in 2027 that reduce internal barriers to cross-border banking, boosting its financial competitiveness by freeing up funds tied up in savings, but will stop short of significantly greater fiscal and financial risk sharing.

Brussels Seeks To Boost the EU Banking Sector's Competitiveness

Vietnam

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

Myanmar

Philippines

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head during funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leade, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 5 in Tehran, Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, ASEAN and Major Power Foreign Ministers Meet

Bangladesh

India

Then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrives for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 5, 2019.

The former leader's pledged return from exile risks triggering violent unrest and would likely do little to bolster her party's near-term political prospects, but it could eventually help ease tensions with India.

What Sheikh Hasina's Return Would Mean for Bangladesh's Political Future

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Vessels are seen anchored along the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026. 

By demanding investment pledges from Gulf states after threatening a 20% toll, the White House is signaling its defense of global trade routes is now a transactional service rather than a core strategic commitment.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

Latest

Supporters of the far-right Vox party wave flags and shout slogans during a protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Madrid, on June 13, 2025.

Strict constitutional restrictions and EU institutional oversight would significantly constrain a future right-wing government's ability to implement sweeping institutional changes.

What the Far-Right Vox Entering Government Would Mean for Spain's Security and Society

Middle East and North Africa

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Iran announced on July 26 that it would suspend its attacks against regional U.S. allies and interests as long as the United States also refrains from further strikes against Iran, Reuters reported the same day.

Iran, U.S.: Room for Talks, but Escalation Risks Persist

Sudan

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, captured the town of Bara from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, as well as the neighboring localities of Um Gurfa and Jabrat al-Sheikh, Sudan Tribune reported on July 25. 

Sudan: SAF Captures Strategic Kordofan Town, Opens New Supply Route to El Obeid

Israel's Cabinet preliminarily approved the deployment of around 200 troops from "friendly countries" to Rafah in the Gaza Strip on July 26, the first time the government has approved the International Stabilization Force that is meant to govern Gaza under the plan promoted by the U.S.-backed Board of Peace, The Times of Israel reported on July 27.

Israel, Gaza: Minor International Force Approved for Gaza

Science & Technology

Argentina

Brazil

Argentina's far-right President Javier Milei will attend right-leaning Brazilian Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign launch on July 25 in Sao Paulo, Reuters reported on July 24.

Brazil, Argentina: Milei To Attend Flavio Bolsonaro's Campaign Launch

A Russian ballistic missile struck a private training ground in the Kyiv region's Bucha district during a defense industry exhibition, killing at least 10 people and injuring over 100 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 24.

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

Ninety-one Turkish lawmakers defected from the opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, to Ozgur Ozel's Yeni Parti, or New Party, DW reported on July 24.

Turkey: Mass Defections Cripple Main Opposition Party

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

South Africa

The Western Cape High Court issued a ruling temporarily interdicting the South African parliament from pressing ahead with its impeachment inquiry into President Cyril Ramaphosa's actions surrounding the Phala Phala scandal, Daily Maverick reported on July 24.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Wins Impeachment Interdictment Bid in Phala Phala Scandal

Mali

Togo

A large convoy of Russian military vehicles arriving from the Togolese port of Lome has crossed the Mali-Burkina Faso border and is headed to Bamako, Jeune Afrique reported on July 23.

West Africa: Russia's Africa Corps Secures First Military Shipment to Mali Through Togo

Japan

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and minor coalition partner Japan Innovation Party passed a bill to designate Osaka, the political powerbase of JIP, as a secondary capital in a 123-121 upper house vote late on July 24 with the help of three independent lawmakers, Jiji Press reported.

Japan: Takaichi Passes Key Coalition Bill, Gaining Reprieve From Diet Troubles

Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannons at two Philippine government fisheries vessels near the Scarborough Shoal, marking the second consecutive day of such actions there and third China-Philippines South China Sea confrontation in five days, Reuters reported on July 24.

China, Philippines, U.S.: Maritime Escalation Pushes South China Sea Dispute Onto Trump-Xi Agenda

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran, U.S.: Room for Talks, but Escalation Risks Persist

Sudan: SAF Captures Strategic Kordofan Town, Opens New Supply Route to El Obeid

Israel, Gaza: Minor International Force Approved for Gaza

Brazil, Argentina: Milei To Attend Flavio Bolsonaro's Campaign Launch

Ukraine, Russia: Russia Strikes Defense Exhibition Near Kyiv in Daylight

Turkey: Mass Defections Cripple Main Opposition Party

South Africa: Ramaphosa Wins Impeachment Interdictment Bid in Phala Phala Scandal

West Africa: Russia's Africa Corps Secures First Military Shipment to Mali Through Togo

Japan: Takaichi Passes Key Coalition Bill, Gaining Reprieve From Diet Troubles

China, Philippines, U.S.: Maritime Escalation Pushes South China Sea Dispute Onto Trump-Xi Agenda

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