Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 5, 2025

Media

India

Pakistan

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

Snapshots

Poland

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

Economics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Global Elections

Ukraine

Russia

Service members of Ukraine's 13th Khartia Brigade load a Vampire drone with food and ammunition supplies to be delivered to the infantry at the frontline on March 7, 2025, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. 

Ukraine's recent string of asymmetric attacks on Russian soil could make Moscow more flexible in negotiations, but it also risks diplomatic blowback that at least temporarily scuttles peace talks.

The Implications of Ukraine's Audacious Attacks on Russia

Mexico

South Korea

Ukrainian, U.S. and Russian delegates meet for peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 16, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine-Russia Talks, Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

M23 fighters are seen at the main border crossing between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda in Goma on March 1, 2025.

Mediation efforts from the Trump administration will likely see the two African countries ink a peace deal in the coming months, but implementation will prove challenging, sustaining the risk of a new military escalation in eastern Congo.

U.S. Mediation Brings Congo and Rwanda Closer to a Peace Deal

Canada

China

Japan

Europe

A U.S. courthouse facade with columns in lower Manhattan, New York.

Global Trade

The court ruling nullifies most -- though not all -- of the Trump administration's tariffs, giving U.S. trading partners temporary breathing room in negotiations while the White House searches for alternative trade measures.

The White House's Tariff Ambitions Bend -- But Do Not Break -- Under the Weight of a Court Ruling

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 29, 2025

Members of the National Association of Magistrates and District Judges hold a massive Mexican flag during a protest in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 11, 2024, after Mexico's Senate approved controversial judicial reforms. 

The likely strong performance of candidates aligned with the ruling Morena party will undermine checks and balances and create regulatory uncertainty for businesses over the long term.

What's at Stake in Mexico's First-Ever Judicial Elections

Dunster House at Harvard University is seen on March 17, 2025, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The Trump administration's latest salvo against elite U.S. universities highlights a broader campaign that will have lasting implications for domestic scientific research, innovation and competitiveness.

The Implications of Trump's Pressure Campaign Against U.S. Universities

Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto speaks during an economic event in Jakarta on April 8, 2025.

The president's efforts to consolidate power via welfare populism and security-minded governance could face challenges if economic headwinds strengthen, especially amid looming U.S. tariff threats.

How Subianto Is Making His Mark on Indonesian Politics

Latest

Singapore

Vietnam

France

French President Emmanuel Macron holds a press briefing during his trip to Singapore on May 30, 2025. 

Energy

The deals reached with Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam expand France's role in Southeast Asia amid shifting global trade and defense dynamics, a welcome development for a region increasingly pinned between the U.S. and China.

Macron's Southeast Asia Tour Deepens French Footprint in the Region

U.S.-China Relations

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Trade

Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

Lee Jae-myung and his wife celebrate his projected victory in South Korea's presidential election on June 4, 2025, in Seoul, South Korea.

Lee Jae-myung and his progressive party will pursue pro-labor domestic policies, along with U.S. tariff relief and improved ties with China and North Korea.

After Months of Political Tumult, South Korea Elects a New President

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (left), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), addresses the media after attending the weekly coalition talks in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 3, 2025.

The far-right party's exit from the ruling coalition will likely trigger early elections, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty amid complex coalition-building and months of caretaker governance.

The Netherlands Descends Into Political Crisis After Government Collapses

Australia

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. 

The collapse of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC) will grant the ruling Labor Party freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Columns

On Geopolitics

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump held a phone call on June 5 at Trump's request, Chinese state media Xinhua reported the same day. 

U.S., China: Xi, Trump Phone Call Suggests Rare Earths Talks Inbound

Italy

Italy's Senate passed Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's controversial security decree, which expands police protections and restricts protests, finalizing its approval after months of EU and U.N. criticism over human rights risks, Il Sole 24 Ore reported on June 4. 

Italy: Meloni's Contentious Security Decree Becomes Law

Israel

Israeli media reported that the ultra-Orthodox Shas party was considering joining the United Torah Judaism party in leaving the coalition government, with the latter party's leaders convening on June 5 to discuss next steps, The Times of Israel reported on June 5.

Israel: Government Wavers as Religious Parties Consider Exiting Coalition

On June 4, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential proclamation banning foreign nationals from entering the United States to study at Harvard University, determining them to be "detrimental to the interests of the United States" under the Immigration and Nationality Act.

U.S.: Trump Administration Ramps Up Pressure on Harvard, Columbia

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he held a call that lasted over an hour with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which the two discussed the war in Ukraine and Iran's nuclear program, according to a June 4 post on Truth Social.

Russia, U.S.: Trump Announces Call With Putin in Which Two Discuss Ukraine, Iran

Tanzania

Uganda

Officials of the state-owned Tanzania Railway Corp. said commercial freight operations were set to begin on the newly built Standard Gauge Railway connecting Tanzania's port city of Dar es Salaam to the capital Dodoma, The Citizen reported on June 4.

Tanzania: Rail Freight Operations To Begin Between Dar es Salaam and Dodoma

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra vowed that Thailand was ready to defend its border positions if Cambodia attacked, a day after Bangkok rejected International Court of Justice jurisdiction over the dispute, the Bangkok Post reported on June 4. 

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Rejects ICJ Jurisdiction Over Border Dispute as Phnom Penh Warns of Escalation

Brazil

Cyber

Science & Technology

The Brazilian Supreme Court resumed a trial on big tech companies' responsibilities for content posted on their platforms, Folha de S.Paulo reported on June 4. 

Brazil: Trial on Big Tech Rules Portends Regulatory, Political Risks

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Lee Jae-myung, the head of South Korea's Democratic Party of Korea, or DPK, was inaugurated as president, Reuters reported on June 4.

South Korea: New President's Party Pursues Day-One Court Packing

Syria's foreign ministry condemned a deadly Israeli attack on southern Syria that followed the first 2025 attack launched from southern Syria into the disputed Golan Heights, Al Jazeera reported on June 3. 

Israel, Syria: Damascus Condemns Israeli Response to Militant Attack Launched From Syria

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Macron's Southeast Asia Tour Deepens French Footprint in the Region

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Xi, Trump Phone Call Suggests Rare Earths Talks Inbound

Italy: Meloni's Contentious Security Decree Becomes Law

Israel: Government Wavers as Religious Parties Consider Exiting Coalition

U.S.: Trump Administration Ramps Up Pressure on Harvard, Columbia

Russia, U.S.: Trump Announces Call With Putin in Which Two Discuss Ukraine, Iran

Tanzania: Rail Freight Operations To Begin Between Dar es Salaam and Dodoma

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok Rejects ICJ Jurisdiction Over Border Dispute as Phnom Penh Warns of Escalation

Brazil: Trial on Big Tech Rules Portends Regulatory, Political Risks

South Korea: New President's Party Pursues Day-One Court Packing

Israel, Syria: Damascus Condemns Israeli Response to Militant Attack Launched From Syria

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