Assessments

Canada

United States

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Europe

Ukraine

India

Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Podcasts

How might U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policy affect emerging and developing markets?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Emerging Markets

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Russia

A digital map illustration of Russia.

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Germany

A German flag flies above the Reichstag, the building that houses the Bundestag, on July 23, 2022, in Berlin. 

If approved, the constitutional reforms and unprecedented fiscal stimulus would unlock massive military spending and revitalize the German economy. 

German Parties Propose a Historic Overhaul of Spending, Defense Policies

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March. 6, 2025

The risk of significant unrest in China persists following the 2022 White Paper protests driven by continuing poor economic prospects.

The Lingering Risk of Protests in China

U.S. policy shifts under Trump and China's ongoing economic malaise will leave highly indebted, low-income countries at greater risk of financial and political distress over the next year.

U.S. and Chinese Economic Uncertainty Worsen the Global Macro Environment

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

France

United Kingdom

Ukrainian flags are flown alongside EU flags outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Feb. 24, 2025, for the third anniversary of Russia'’s large-scale invasion.

Amid the prospect of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, European leaders are mulling putting boots on the ground in Ukraine to help deter Russian aggression, which could take several forms, each varying in effectiveness and feasibility.

Weighing the Options for a European Deployment in Ukraine

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

A truck drives toward the Canada-U.S. border crossing in Blackpool, Canada, on Feb. 2, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: An EU Summit on Ukraine, U.S. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

Latest

Venezuela

The Peace Monument sculpture is seen in front of the PDVSA headquarters in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 2, 2022. 

Energy

The return of stricter U.S. sanctions will harm Venezuela's oil and gas industry, undermine its economy and fuel migration, but is unlikely to weaken President Maduro's hold on power in the short to medium term.

What Trump's Policy Shifts Mean for Venezuela

Global Trade

Trump's trade and tariff policies will create new challenges for manufacturers seeking to move their operations closer to the U.S., but broader global dynamics will likely prevent a reversal in nearshoring trends. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: Rising Threats to Nearshoring in the Americas

Algeria

Morocco

France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) meets with Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune (R) at the Borgo Egnazia resort on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 13, 2024. 

A migration dispute between France and Algeria will likely lead to sanctions, trade restrictions and frozen energy deals amid broader disagreements over Western Sahara.


Divisions Between France and Algeria Deepen Over Migration Dispute

Romania

Supporters of the far-right Romanian politician Calin Georgescu take part in an anti-government protest in Bucharest on March 1, 2025. 

Georgescu's disqualification will worsen Romania's increasingly polarized political climate, heightening the risk of violent protests and strengthening alternative far-right candidates in the May election rerun.

Romania's Political Crisis Worsens After Far-Right Candidate Barred From Presidential Rerun

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and other senior leaders applaud at the closing session of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, or CPPCC, on March 10, 2024, in Beijing, China. 

The annual legislative conference will reveal more details on how China plans to support its sluggish economy and protect it from Western restrictions, though major stimulus measures remain unlikely.

China's 'Two Sessions' Meeting Will Shed Light on Economic Support, Trade Resilience Plans

Chile

Chile's President Gabriel Boric speaks during the "Palestinian Christmas: From Bethlehem to Chile, a light of hope" ceremony in Santiago on Dec. 17, 2024.

Social Issues

During his last year in office, Chilean President Gabriel Boric will moderate his economic policy and bolster security to unify his coalition and reflect voters' changing priorities.

In Chile, What To Expect From Boric's Last Year in Office

Minerals are loaded onto trucks at an open-pit mine in Ukraine's Donetsk region, near the frontline of the war with Russia, on Feb. 26, 2025.

The deal, while largely political for now, could influence the course of the war by justifying continued U.S. aid to Ukraine, potentially delaying any ceasefire with Russia.

The Viability and Potential Impact of the U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

Brazil

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks at a seminar in Brasilia, Brazil, on Feb. 20, 2025.

The former president will likely be convicted on charges that he helped stage an armed coup in 2022. But the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening President Lula's re-election bid next year.

What Bolsonaro's Likely Arrest Means for Brazilian Politics

People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025. 

The crisis is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would strain EU relations and jeopardize crucial funds from the bloc.

Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Australia

Japan

Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

According to a U.S.-Ukraine joint statement, Ukraine is prepared to accept a U.S. proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire with Russia that can be extended following all parties' mutual agreement, Reuters reported on March 11.

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington and Kyiv Propose 30-day Ceasefire to Russia, Resume Paused Cooperation

Lebanon

Israel and Lebanon agreed to begin negotiations over their land border dispute, Axios reported on March 11.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon Agree to Border Negotiations

Interpol arrested former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte at Manila's international airport upon his return from Hong Kong, The Manila Times reported on March 11.

Philippines: Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested for Crimes Against Humanity

Portugal

Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's center-right minority government faces imminent collapse in a confidence vote it is set to lose on March 11, with center-left and right-wing opposition parties having already pledged to vote against the government, Reuters reported the same day.

Portugal: Center-Right Minority Government Set To Lose Confidence Vote

Mozambique

Venancio Mondlane, Mozambique's opposition leader and former presidential candidate, appeared at the attorney general's office in Maputo, Club of Mozambique reported on March 11.

Mozambique: Mondlane Remains in Mozambique, Appears at Attorney General's Office

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

Ugandan military chief Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba said Uganda has deployed special forces to South Sudan's capital, Juba, since March 8, Reuters reported on March 11.

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms 

Russia claimed it shot down 343 drones in an attack that constituted the largest drone attack by either side in terms of the total number of drones used since the war, Agentstvo reported March 11. 

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Launches Largest-Ever Drone Attack on Russia as U.S.-Ukraine Delegations Meet

The Dalai Lama -- the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism -- released his new book on March 11, in which he stated, "Since the purpose of a reincarnation is to carry on the work of the predecessor, the new Dalai Lama will be born in the free world," which he described as outside of China, according to a review of the book by Reuters. 

China: Dalai Lama Says Successor to be Born Outside of China

Science & Technology

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Egypt

Egyptian Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk announced that Egypt had successfully completed the fourth review of its $8 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program, and as such, the IMF will disburse $1.2 billion of the loan within days, Egypt Today reported March 11.

Egypt: IMF Approves Egypt's Fourth Loan Review, Set to Disburse $1.2 Billion 

The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, agreed to a ceasefire with the interim government and to integrate into the country's state institutions, Reuters reported on March 10, citing a Syrian presidential statement.

Syria: SDF Reaches Ceasefire, Integration Deal With Damascus

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

What Trump's Policy Shifts Mean for Venezuela

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington and Kyiv Propose 30-day Ceasefire to Russia, Resume Paused Cooperation

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon Agree to Border Negotiations

Philippines: Former President Rodrigo Duterte Arrested for Crimes Against Humanity

Portugal: Center-Right Minority Government Set To Lose Confidence Vote

Mozambique: Mondlane Remains in Mozambique, Appears at Attorney General's Office

South Sudan: Uganda Reportedly Deploys Special Forces in Juba as Civil War Looms

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Launches Largest-Ever Drone Attack on Russia as U.S.-Ukraine Delegations Meet

China: Dalai Lama Says Successor to be Born Outside of China

Egypt: IMF Approves Egypt's Fourth Loan Review, Set to Disburse $1.2 Billion

Syria: SDF Reaches Ceasefire, Integration Deal With Damascus

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