Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

Red Cross volunteers wearing personal protective equipment lower the body of an Ebola victim into a casket at a health center in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo, on June 8, 2026.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

The escalating outbreak will likely persist for several more months, likely disrupting regional supply chains, mining investments in Congo and potentially Uganda's start of oil production.

Ebola Makes Deadly Comeback in Congo

Snapshots

United States

Iran

Israel

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Politics

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

Energy

Will the United States continue to pay the "blood and treasure" tax to subsidize global energy security, or is the Hormuz war the catalyst for a fundamental retrenchment?

The Decision Advantage: What the Hormuz War Means for U.S. Grand Strategy

Peru

Lebanon

China

North Korea

Armenia

Russia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Taiwan

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

U.S.-China Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Australia

Fiji

Japan

India

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Guests stand outside a model carriage of the "Dream of the Desert" ultra-luxury train on display during the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 28, 2025.

Efforts to create new export routes via railways and pipelines will be hampered by regional mistrust, uncertain commercial viability and long construction timelines, ultimately keeping Gulf states reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.

All Roads Lead to Hormuz: The Limits of Gulf Infrastructure Diversification

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 4, 2026

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (right) addresses journalists next to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a new round of trade discussions with Chinese officials at the OECD headquarters in Paris on March 16, 2026.

The scope of the Section 301 levies and the rapid investigations underpinning them portend more legal challenges, but this will not deter the White House from continuing its broader push to more sustainably implement its global tariff regime.

Trump Tries Again To Impose Sweeping Global Tariffs

Latest

Iraq

Members of Saraya al-Salam gather during a ceremony in the city of Samarra on June 4, 2026, marking their separation from the Sadrist movement and their integration into the Iraqi security forces.

Several militant factions have recently expressed a desire to integrate into Iraq's government structures, but more hard-line groups are unlikely to follow suit without Iran's approval.

Iraq's Push To Disarm Iranian-Backed Militias Will Have Only Partial Success

Ukraine

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Brazil

A passerby walks past the Banco Master building in Sao Paulo on Jan. 22, 2026, after Brazil's central bank ordered its shutdown due to a major liquidity crunch and "serious violations" of financial regulations.

Brazil faces severe institutional friction and heightened market volatility as a widening investigation into massive financial fraud threatens to ensnare prominent politicians, justices and businesspeople.

Deepening Corruption Scandal Could Upend Brazilian Presidential Race

Europe

Switzerland

Citizens vote by raising their hands during the Landsgemeinde, a traditional public, non-secret ballot conducted by majority rule, in Appenzell, eastern Switzerland, on April 26.

Global Trade

If approved, the cap on the permanent resident population would compel Swiss companies to accelerate capital investment and automation initiatives to offset reduced EU migration.


Swiss Population Referendum Threatens Growth and EU Relations

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Philippines

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

Columns

On Geopolitics

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Nigeria

Former Niger Delta militant leader Government "Tompolo" Ekpemupolo called for calm in Nigeria's southern Delta state amid fresh demonstrations by ethnic Ijaw and Urhobo protestors, who are occupying oil flow stations and threatening the production of 400,000 barrels of oil per day to protest the Independent National Electoral Commission's failure to implement a new ward delineation in the Warri area, Premium Times reported on June 10.

Nigeria: Tompolo Calls for Calm in Delta State as Protestors Occupy Oil Production Facilities

Ukrainian forces struck several facilities at the Russian-occupied port of Mariupol, leaving the port without power and significantly limiting its use as a logistics hub, Reuters reported June 10.

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Expands Strikes on Russia's Southern Logistics Belt

South Korea

South Korea's foreign ministry on June 10 denied reports that Japan had asked to resume exports of Japanese seafood to South Korea, restricted since 2013, adding that "consumers' confidence in the safety of Japanese seafood must first be restored."

South Korea, Japan: Seoul Outlines Limits to Cooperation With Tokyo

France

Slovakia

Science & Technology

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit France and then Slovakia from June 13-16 to hold bilateral talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Reuters reported on June 10.

India: Modi To Visit France and Slovakia Ahead of G7 Summit

Venezuela

Venezuela is expanding its troop presence in gold mining regions of Bolivar state, including deploying special forces from the Bolivarian National Armed Forces and conducting operations targeting illegally controlled mines in the Las Claritas mining region, Bloomberg reported on June 9.

Venezuela: Military Expands Operations Against Criminal Groups in Key Mining Region

Germany

Sweden

Italy

An Airbus-led alliance of eight defense companies will launch Team Gen 6, a German-led sixth-generation fighter project intended to replace the collapsed Franco-German Future Combat Air System program, during Berlin's ILA air show on June 11, Euronews reported on June 10, citing Airbus. 

Germany, France: Airbus-Led Consortium To Launch Sixth-Generation Fighter Initiative After FCAS Collapse

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's National Assembly on June 9 adopted a controversial referendum bill that, should the Senate approve it at second reading, will replace the country's 2005 referendum law and strengthen the powers of the president to call a referendum, creating a legal framework that could eventually enable constitutional reform, RFI reported on June 10.

Congo: Parliament Passes Referendum Law, Paving the Way for Constitutional Reform

Chile

Chile's finance ministry announced that the government is abandoning President Jose Antonio Kast's campaign pledge to balance the structural budget by the end of his term in 2030, and will instead target a structural deficit of 1.5% of GDP by then, La Tercera reported June 9.

Chile: Government Abandons Kast's Goal of Balancing Budget by 2030

Egyptian Minister of ​Petroleum Karim Badawi announced that Egypt had cleared its outstanding international oil and gas arrears, aligning with previous government projections for finalizing the payment, Reuters reported on June 10.

Egypt: Cairo Fully Repays Outstanding Foreign Oil and Gas Arrears

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote in a June 10 Truth Social post that Iranian officials had "taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!!" and threatened to order attacks on Iranian power plants and bridges.

U.S., Iran: Trump Escalates Rhetoric After U.S.-Iran Clashes

Azerbaijan

Thousands of Armenians participate in a rally in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 26, 2024. 

Prime Minister Pashinyan's likely reelection will empower him to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West, though Russian economic pressure and domestic opposition to constitutional changes could undermine these efforts.

What's at Stake in Armenia's Upcoming Election

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Rwanda

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Iraq's Push To Disarm Iranian-Backed Militias Will Have Only Partial Success

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: Tompolo Calls for Calm in Delta State as Protestors Occupy Oil Production Facilities

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Expands Strikes on Russia's Southern Logistics Belt

South Korea, Japan: Seoul Outlines Limits to Cooperation With Tokyo

India: Modi To Visit France and Slovakia Ahead of G7 Summit

Venezuela: Military Expands Operations Against Criminal Groups in Key Mining Region

Germany, France: Airbus-Led Consortium To Launch Sixth-Generation Fighter Initiative After FCAS Collapse

Congo: Parliament Passes Referendum Law, Paving the Way for Constitutional Reform

Chile: Government Abandons Kast's Goal of Balancing Budget by 2030

Egypt: Cairo Fully Repays Outstanding Foreign Oil and Gas Arrears

U.S., Iran: Trump Escalates Rhetoric After U.S.-Iran Clashes

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