Assessments

Peru

United States

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 23, 2026

India

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

Economics

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

China

A decorative plate featuring an image of Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen behind a statue of late communist leader Mao Zedong at a souvenir store next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, on Feb. 27, 2018. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

China will remain a geopolitical enigma to the West as Beijing turns inward to insulate the CCP from the influence of external powers, an exercise that history suggests will threaten national prosperity and regime stability.

The Modern Geopolitics of China

U.S.-China Relations

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Germany

France

Spain

Italy

A 20 euro note.

The European Union is likely to advance banking reforms in 2027 that reduce internal barriers to cross-border banking, boosting its financial competitiveness by freeing up funds tied up in savings, but will stop short of significantly greater fiscal and financial risk sharing.

Brussels Seeks To Boost the EU Banking Sector's Competitiveness

Vietnam

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

Myanmar

Philippines

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head during funeral ceremonies for Supreme Leade, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on July 5 in Tehran, Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, ASEAN and Major Power Foreign Ministers Meet

Bangladesh

Then-Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina arrives for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on July 5, 2019.

The former leader's pledged return from exile risks triggering violent unrest and would likely do little to bolster her party's near-term political prospects, but it could eventually help ease tensions with India.

What Sheikh Hasina's Return Would Mean for Bangladesh's Political Future

Latest

Supporters of the far-right Vox party wave flags and shout slogans during a protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Madrid, on June 13, 2025.

Strict constitutional restrictions and EU institutional oversight would significantly constrain a future right-wing government's ability to implement sweeping institutional changes.

What the Far-Right Vox Entering Government Would Mean for Spain's Security and Society

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Middle East and North Africa

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Lebanon

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Poland

A new IBRiS poll conducted for Polish news outlet Wirtualna Polska and published July 27 put public support for former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's newly formed center-right Development Plus party at 7.5%, above the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Poland: New Center-Right Party Rises in the Polls, Fragmenting Right-Wing Opposition

Oman

On July 28, a Reuters source said Oman had convinced Gulf Arab states to agree to a proposal for a voluntary tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz to resolve the current impasse with Iran, although neither the Gulf Arab states nor Iran confirmed that such an idea was viable.

Iran, U.S.: As Calm Persists, Oman Pitches Voluntary Hormuz Toll

Science & Technology

Chinese semiconductor manufacturing equipment makers have begun producing immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines and are developing prototypes of the more advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, The Information reported on July 27. 

China: Mass Production of Immersion DUV Lithography Machines Begins

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump told the press that Venezuela was making progress under acting President Delcy Rodriguez but was not yet ready to hold elections, Reuters reported on July 24.

Venezuela, U.S.: Trump Says Venezuela Not Ready for Elections

The Cockroach Janta Party youth group called off its nationwide protests after India's Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned amid criticism of leaks and other scandals linked to school exams in recent months, Reuters reported on July 25.

India: Education Minister Resigns, Prompting Protesters To Call Off Demonstrations

Russian President Vladimir Putin told outgoing State Duma lawmakers that Russia would achieve its objectives in Ukraine and "do everything for victory," TASS reported on July 27.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin's Victory Pledge Raises Postelection Manpower Expansion Risk

Taiwan

Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an, a more moderate member of the conservative Kuomintang, helped organize on July 25 the largest protest in Taiwan since President William Lai took office in May 2024, the South China Morning Post reported on July 27. 

Taiwan: Taipei Protest Shows Prospects for Pro-China Opposition to Moderate

Argentina

Brazil

The Brazilian government recalled its ambassador to Argentina for consultations and summoned Argentina's ambassador to Brasilia after far-right Argentine President Javier Milei insulted leftist Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, g1 reported on July 26.

Argentina, Brazil: Milei's Participation in Bolsonaro's Campaign Launch Sparks Diplomatic Crisis

Iran announced on July 26 that it would suspend its attacks against regional U.S. allies and interests as long as the United States also refrains from further strikes against Iran, Reuters reported the same day.

Iran, U.S.: Room for Talks, but Escalation Risks Persist

Bahrain

Kuwait

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

Vessels are seen anchored along the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026. 

By demanding investment pledges from Gulf states after threatening a 20% toll, the White House is signaling its defense of global trade routes is now a transactional service rather than a core strategic commitment.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, captured the town of Bara from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, as well as the neighboring localities of Um Gurfa and Jabrat al-Sheikh, Sudan Tribune reported on July 25. 

Sudan: SAF Captures Strategic Kordofan Town, Opens New Supply Route to El Obeid

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland: New Center-Right Party Rises in the Polls, Fragmenting Right-Wing Opposition

Iran, U.S.: As Calm Persists, Oman Pitches Voluntary Hormuz Toll

China: Mass Production of Immersion DUV Lithography Machines Begins

Venezuela, U.S.: Trump Says Venezuela Not Ready for Elections

India: Education Minister Resigns, Prompting Protesters To Call Off Demonstrations

Russia, Ukraine: Putin's Victory Pledge Raises Postelection Manpower Expansion Risk

Taiwan: Taipei Protest Shows Prospects for Pro-China Opposition to Moderate

Argentina, Brazil: Milei's Participation in Bolsonaro's Campaign Launch Sparks Diplomatic Crisis

Iran, U.S.: Room for Talks, but Escalation Risks Persist

Sudan: SAF Captures Strategic Kordofan Town, Opens New Supply Route to El Obeid

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