Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

China

Japan

Ukraine

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

What will happen to U.S. interest rates if the war continues?

The Decision Advantage: Economic Impacts of the War on Iran

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 12, 2026

Bahrain

People attend the funeral of a person killed during an Iranian drone attack on a high-rise apartment building in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on March 10, 2026.

Energy

A sharp rise in domestic sectarian issues and disruptions to key exports through the Strait of Hormuz are converging to threaten the political and economic stability of the kingdom.

Iran War Exposes Bahrain to Fiscal Risks, Sectarian Tensions

Canada

Australia

India

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, Australia, on March 5, 2026. 

Canada's push to deepen economic and security ties with India, Australia and Japan faces constraints and may inadvertently strengthen the U.S.-led regional structure Ottawa is trying to hedge against.

The Promise and Limitations of Canada's Push to Diversify Strategic Partnerships

North Korea

South Korea

Russia

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks during the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Feb. 22, 2026. 

Kim Jong Un's latest directives suggest a willingness to pursue high-level negotiations with the United States and China in pursuit of critical economic concessions.

North Korea's Party Congress Points to Diplomatic Window of Opportunity

Europe

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil talks to the media before the start of an Eurogroup ministers meeting at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 9, 2026. 

While the EU is making some progress on a capital markets union, a fully unified market remains unlikely anytime soon due to fragmented national laws and disagreements over centralized regulatory control.

A European Capital Markets Union: Incremental Progress and Enduring Obstacles

Vietnam

How will election results impact Vietnam's economic growth in the near term?

The Decision Advantage: What To Expect From Vietnam's Leadership Election Results

Ecuador

U.S. President Donald Trump greets Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa at his "Shield of the Americas" summit, a gathering with heads of state and government officials from 12 countries in the Americas at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on March 7, 2026, in Doral, Florida. 

The United States' increasing interventionism across the Americas has led to joint military operations with Ecuador, which, if sustained, could successfully reduce cartel violence there.

U.S.-Ecuador Military Operations Expand Washington's Regional Interventionism

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

Iraq

Jordan

Syria

Jordanian Armed Forces, U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces and other international forces conduct a combined Arms Live Fire Exercise on May 23, 2024 in the desert near Azraq, Jordan. 

As the United States prepares to withdraw its final troops from Syria, Amman will likely expand cross-border security operations to counter Islamic State and disrupt drug smuggling networks.

Jordan Likely To Step Up Anti-Islamic State, Countersmuggling Operations in Syria

Latest

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Limited commando raids are Trump's most viable option, as larger ground incursions in Iran would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

European Union and Australian flags together.

Global Trade

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Cuba

Anti-government protests opposing severe power outages across Cuba escalated, with protesters attacking a Communist Party office in the central city of Moron, 250 miles (402 kilometers) east of Havana, Reuters reported on March 14.

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

Cyber

Russian authorities have imposed rolling mobile internet blackouts in Moscow since March 5, while allowing access only to a limited set of approved services through a whitelist system, the Financial Times reported on March 14.

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that countries like China, Japan and South Korea participate in a naval escort mission to ensure the safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on March 15.

Northeast Asia: China, South Korea, Japan Demur Over Trump Demand for Strait of Hormuz Escort Mission

Belgium

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said the European Union should normalize relations with Russia to restore access to cheaper energy, according to a March 14 interview with L'Echo.

Belgium, Russia: Belgian Prime Minister Calls for EU Normalization With Moscow, Renewed Energy Trade

Uganda

Ugandan opposition leader Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, known as Bobi Wine, said he had fled Uganda after spending about two months in hiding following the disputed January 2026 general election, BBC reported on March 16.

Uganda: Main Opposition Leader Bobi Wine Flees Over Fears for His Life

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's authorities said voters approved a new constitution in a March 15 referendum with more than 87% support and turnout exceeding 73%, introducing sweeping political reforms that expand presidential authority and restructure the legislature, AP reported on March 16.

Kazakhstan: Referendum Approves Constitutional Changes Expanding Presidential Authority

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said she had discussed with the United Nations the possibility of a Black Sea grain deal-type agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and would discuss the possibility of expanding the mandate of the European Union's Red Sea naval mission to protect vessels transiting the strait, Reuters reported on March 16.

MENA: Plans Emerge To Try To Open the Strait of Hormuz

India's government is negotiating with Iran to ensure the safe transit of six liquefied petroleum gas tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported on March 16. 

India: Government Negotiates With Iran To Prioritize the Transit of Six LPG Tankers

France held the first round of municipal elections on March 15, with the far-right National Rally retaining strongholds in Perpignan and Henin-Beaumont and advancing in southern cities such as Toulon, Nice and Marseille, Le Monde reported on March 16. 

France: First Round of Municipal Elections Highlights Far-Right Gains and Tests Runoff Alliances

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Venezuela

The United States expanded sanctions waivers for Venezuela, facilitating electricity and petrochemical investments and allowing fertilizer exports to the U.S. market, Reuters reported on March 13.

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Eases Sanctions and Allows Venezuelan Fertilizer Exports

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

Northeast Asia: China, South Korea, Japan Demur Over Trump Demand for Strait of Hormuz Escort Mission

Belgium, Russia: Belgian Prime Minister Calls for EU Normalization With Moscow, Renewed Energy Trade

Uganda: Main Opposition Leader Bobi Wine Flees Over Fears for His Life

Kazakhstan: Referendum Approves Constitutional Changes Expanding Presidential Authority

MENA: Plans Emerge To Try To Open the Strait of Hormuz

India: Government Negotiates With Iran To Prioritize the Transit of Six LPG Tankers

France: First Round of Municipal Elections Highlights Far-Right Gains and Tests Runoff Alliances

U.S., Venezuela: Washington Eases Sanctions and Allows Venezuelan Fertilizer Exports

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