Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

India

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Can India Maintain its Policy of Non-Alignment?

Applied Geopolitics: India and the Indo-Pacific

South Africa

Energy

What can people do to mitigate the impact of electricity cuts?

Essential Geopolitics: Anticipating the Fallout from South Africa's Electricity Crisis 

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 1, 2023

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

How do climate issues, strategic competition and advanced technology interact and influence each other? 

Applied Geopolitics: The Relationship Between Climate, Strategic Competition and Technology

A soldier places flags at the gravesites of U.S. military members buried at the Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia on May 24, 2012. 

In addition to other coalition partners, the United States depends on local civilians and security forces overseas. 

Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day

Turkey

Europe

An image of the Turkish flag. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Holds a Presidential Runoff, U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks Enter Crunch Time

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Germany

The Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, is seen at night.

Disputes over a new climate bill bode ill for the government's ability to negotiate a tight federal budget.

More Cracks Appear in Germany's Ruling Coalition

Japan

South Korea

What forces are at play in shaping South Korea's strategic geopolitical relationships?

Applied Geopolitics: South Korea's Response to Shifting Geopolitical Balances 

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

Low water levels are seen at the Sidi Salem Dam, Tunisia's largest embankment dam, on April 6, 2023. 

Social Issues

Water and food shortages this summer will increase socioeconomic risks in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, along with the impetus for more sustainable agricultural practices. 

After a Dry Spring, Northwest Africa Braces for Disruptive Crop Failures

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 25, 2023

China

Why is Beijing cracking down on foreign businesses?

Essential Geopolitics: Beijing's Campaign Against U.S. Firms 

Latest

Spain

Supporters of Spain's center-right Popular Party (PP) gather outside the PP's headquarters in Madrid on May 28, 2023, to celebrate the party's strong performance in recent regional elections. 

The July 23 snap general ballot could yield a PP-Vox coalition that reverses some of Spain's fiscal policies, disrupts its EU presidency and increases the risk of social unrest.


In Spain, an Early Election Opens the Door to a Right-Wing Government

Leaders of the Council of the European Union, the bloc’s main decision-making body, hold a meeting in Brussels, Belgium in March 2017.

Spain's proposal to nix unanimity voting on strategic EU decisions will run up against resistance from smaller states that want to preserve their veto power.

In the EU, a New Push To Streamline Foreign Policy Decisions Emerges

Russia

Moldova

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Qatar

Afghanistan

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves at supporters at the presidential palace after winning reelection in a runoff on May 29, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

President Erdogan will likely stay the course on most policies, though his government may scale back some of the unorthodox economic strategies that have vexed markets.

In Turkey, the Erdogan Era Continues

Ghana

Ghanaians march in Accra on Nov. 5, 2022, to protest against the government’s handling of the country’s dire economic crisis.

The $3 billion loan will boost the country's foreign reserves, though some of the required unpopular fiscal consolidation measures may increase political volatility.

An IMF Bailout Will Help Kick-Start Ghana's Economic Recovery, but Challenges Remain

Ecuador

Police forces stand guard outside Ecuador's National Assembly in Quito after the country's president issued a decree dissolving the legislature on May 17, 2023. 

Lasso's use of a constitutional clause to disband the legislature and rule by decree before early elections will face institutional opposition and likely spur disruptive protests.

Ecuador's President Dissolves Congress To Avoid Impeachment. But at What Cost?

Greece

Alexis Tsipras (left), who leads the left-wing Syriza party, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (right), who leads the right-wing New Democracy party, look in opposite directions during a televised debate in Athens on May 10, 2023. 

The May 21 ballot could yield a hung parliament, but despite potential policymaking delays, abrupt economic policy changes are improbable.

How Greece's Election Could Impact Its Economy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves to his supporters from a balcony in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2023. 

The opposition’s failure to secure a majority in parliament and win the first round of the presidential election increases the likelihood of Erdogan securing another term in the May 28 run-off.

In Turkey, a Presidential Run-Off Bodes Well for Erdogan

Columns

On Geopolitics

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Sub-Saharan Africa

An aerial view of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is seen on Nov. 25, 2022.

Africa's expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity.

Africa's Population Boom, Part 1: The Opportunities and Risks

Armenia

Azerbaijan

The deputy prime ministers of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan held a meeting in Moscow, Russia, to discuss border and customs procedures between Azerbaijan and Armenia, TASS reported on June 2.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Border Talks Held in Moscow as Negotiations Gain Momentum

Argentina

The Argentine Central Bank issued a regulation making the country's 23 local provinces responsible for exchanging currency for 60% of capital repayments of foreign currency debt, Reuters reported on June 1. 

Argentina: Provinces Ordered to Exchange Currency for Foreign Currency Debt Obligations

Ukraine

The United States asked Japan to supply TNT to use in 155 millimeter artillery shells for Ukraine's upcoming counter-offensive against Russia, The Asahi Shimbun reported on June 2.

Japan, U.S.: Tokyo's Constitutional Constraints on Display as Washington Seeks Explosives

Angola

The Angolan government announced a reduction in fuel subsidies, nearly doubling gasoline prices across the country, Bloomberg reported on June 2.

Angola: Government Cuts Fuel Subsidies

Senegal

Violence broke out in Dakar, Thies and Ziguinchor after a criminal court sentenced Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko to two years in prison for "corrupting youth," Jeune Afrique reported June 2.

Senegal: Riots Break Out Over Sonko Verdict

The proportion of surveyed Chinese cities with debt servicing costs at or above 10% of income rose from a quarter in 2021 to a third in 2022, primarily driven by lower incomes, according to a Rhodium Group report on June 1.

China: Economic Stimulus Remains Unlikely as Municipal Debts Build and Real Estate Demand Lags

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs announced that the state would pause new housing development in the Phoenix metro area that relies on groundwater after a state study found that 4% of the area's groundwater supplies would not be met if housing development continued as planned, The New York Times reported on June 1.

U.S.: Citing Water Shortages, Arizona Will Limit Phoenix Metro Area's Housing Developments

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal holds a press conference on EU-India trade relations at the European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on June 17, 2022.

A free trade agreement could help both sides reduce their respective dependencies on China, if disputes over issues like market access and tariffs don’t get in the way.

The Drivers and Challenges to an EU-India Trade Deal

The offices of U.S. semiconductor manufacturer Micron in Shanghai, China, are seen on May 22, 2023.

The partial ban on the U.S. firm's memory chips signals Beijing's willingness to use disruptive legal tools in the name of national security against Western companies amid the growing tech standoff.

By Banning U.S. Chipmaker Micron, China Hits Back at Western Tech Restrictions

Israel

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Member states of the East African Community (EAC) voted to renew the mandate of the EAC regional force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo until Sept. 8, Radio Okapi reported on May 31.

Congo: East African Community Force Mandate Extended Through September

Jordan

Jordan's Crown Prince Al Hussein bin Abdullah II married Saudi architect Rajwa Alseif, whose family is distantly related to Saudi Arabia's King Salman, DW News reported on June 1.

Jordan: Crown Prince's Marriage Cements Ties to Saudi Arabia

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's Central Bank cut its standing deposit facility rate from 15.5% to 13% and its standing lending facility rate from 16.5% to 14% in an attempt to encourage economic growth amid a faster-than-expected decrease in inflation, AP reported on June 1.

Sri Lanka: Central Bank Cuts Key Rates by 250 Basis Points

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Border Talks Held in Moscow as Negotiations Gain Momentum

Argentina: Provinces Ordered to Exchange Currency for Foreign Currency Debt Obligations

Japan, U.S.: Tokyo's Constitutional Constraints on Display as Washington Seeks Explosives

Angola: Government Cuts Fuel Subsidies

Senegal: Riots Break Out Over Sonko Verdict

China: Economic Stimulus Remains Unlikely as Municipal Debts Build and Real Estate Demand Lags

U.S.: Citing Water Shortages, Arizona Will Limit Phoenix Metro Area's Housing Developments

Congo: East African Community Force Mandate Extended Through September

Jordan: Crown Prince's Marriage Cements Ties to Saudi Arabia

Sri Lanka: Central Bank Cuts Key Rates by 250 Basis Points

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support