Assessments

Mexico

United States

Algeria

Italy

The Mexican Senate building in December 2019 in Mexico City. The Mexican Senate will begin considering a controversial judicial reform Sept. 8 that it plans to vote on by Sept. 11.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Judicial Reform in Mexico, An EU Competitiveness Report

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

Yemen

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

Snapshots

France

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 5, 2024

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

An Aug. 29 Israeli military operation in Tulkarm in the northern West Bank. In the coming months, wide-scale Israeli military operations and expanding settlements in the West Bank will further weaken the Palestinian Authority and put the territory at greater risk of uprising.

In the coming months, wide-scale Israeli military operations and expanding settlements in the West Bank will further weaken the Palestinian Authority and put the territory at greater risk of uprising. 

Will Israel Face a Third Intifada in the West Bank?

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

China

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

Demonstrators calling for action to secure the release of Israeli hostages held captive since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Palestinian militants Sept. 3 in front of the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, Israel. A strengthened anti-government movement in Israel is likely to reduce coalition government unity and could lead to months of disruptions to daily life, incentivizing the Israeli government to intensify military operations in Gaza, pulling forces from the northern front and West Bank, and seeing tensions between pro- and anti-government partisans possibly escalate into violence.

Social Issues

A strengthened anti-government movement in Israel is likely to reduce coalition government unity and could lead to months of disruptions to daily life.

As the Opposition Gains Strength, Disruptions in Israel and the Gaza Conflict Will Increase

Columns

On Geopolitics

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Mongolia

Germany

Supporters attend a campaign event for the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) in Erfurt, eastern Germany, on Aug. 29, 2024, ahead of upcoming regional elections.

The Weekly Rundown: An Africa-China Summit, State Elections in Eastern Germany

Turkey

Japan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Latest

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Netherlands

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

U.S.-China Relations

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

Ukraine

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio on Aug. 14 in Tokyo. The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

In Japan, Kishida's Resignation Will Bring a New Face to the Same Old LDP

Poland

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 2 in Warsaw.

Poland's ongoing political volatility will continue to create policy and economic uncertainty leading up to the presidential election in mid-2025. If this persists after the election, it could have long-term negative effects on the country's appeal to investors.

Political Polarization Fuels Uncertainty Ahead of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election

Global Elections

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Luxembourg

Denmark

Belgium

Berlin announced that the country will extend border controls with France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark for at least another six months to ''further restrict irregular immigration'', reported the Financial Times on Sept. 9.

Germany: Berlin Extends Temporary Immigration Controls to All Land Borders

France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- the so-called E3 grouping of signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal -- issued a joint statement on Sept. 10 criticizing Iran's transfer of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine.

Europe: France, Germany and the U.K. Sanction Iran Over Missile Transfers to Russia

The U.S. House of Representatives passed several China-related bills related to economic and national security concerns regarding China amid what some have dubbed ''China week.''

U.S.: House Passes Raft of China-Related Bills

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Australia

Cyber

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that his government will introduce legislation to institute legal age minimums for social media platforms before the end of the year, The Straits Times reported on Sept. 10, adding that the platforms' impact on minors has proven a ''scourge.''

Australia: Government to Introduce Social Media Age Restrictions

The four candidates for the Sept. 23 leadership election of Japan's main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), have held multiple televised debates in the last 48 hours, including ones hosted by major newspaper Asahi Shimbun and talk show Niconico.

Japan: Opposition Party Debates Lay Out Potential Foreign, Economic Policy Shifts

Russia's Defense Ministry said Ukraine carried out its largest drone attack on Moscow so far, targeting civilian transport infrastructure in the Russian capital and eight other regions of the country, Reuters reported Sept. 10.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Moscow Region

Science & Technology

Approximately 60 countries, including the United States, endorsed a legally non-binding ''blueprint for action'' to govern the responsible use of AI in the military during the Responsible AI in the Military Domain (REAIM) summit held in Seoul on Sept. 10, Reuters reported the same day.

Global: 60 Countries Endorse AI Blueprint for Military Use 

South Sudan

Ethiopia

Egypt

Ethiopia informed the U.N. Security Council that it had submitted a ratified version of the Nile Basin Initiative's Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to the African Union on Aug. 14, Addis Standard reported Sept. 9.

Ethiopia: Country Submits Ratified Nile Basin Cooperation Deal to the African Union 

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Despite warnings from China, a German frigate and a supply ship will sail through the Taiwan Strait in mid-September, Der Spiegel reported on Sept. 7.

Germany: Navy to Embark on First Transit Through Taiwan Strait Since 2002

Former U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to place a 100% tariff on countries that ''leave the dollar'' at a Sept. 7 rally in Wisconsin, Bloomberg reported the same day.

U.S.: Trump Proposes 100% Tariff on Countries That Ditch the Dollar

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Germany: Berlin Extends Temporary Immigration Controls to All Land Borders

Europe: France, Germany and the U.K. Sanction Iran Over Missile Transfers to Russia

U.S.: House Passes Raft of China-Related Bills

Australia: Government to Introduce Social Media Age Restrictions

Japan: Opposition Party Debates Lay Out Potential Foreign, Economic Policy Shifts

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Moscow Region

Global: 60 Countries Endorse AI Blueprint for Military Use

Ethiopia: Country Submits Ratified Nile Basin Cooperation Deal to the African Union

Germany: Navy to Embark on First Transit Through Taiwan Strait Since 2002

U.S.: Trump Proposes 100% Tariff on Countries That Ditch the Dollar

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