Assessments

Argentina

Egypt

China

Vietnam

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

A campaign poster for incoming Argentine President Javier Milei on Nov. 30, 2023, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Milei plans to immediately send a package of economic reforms to the Argentine legislature.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Xi's Vietnam Visit, Egypt's Presidential Election

Media

Podcasts

Find out how Adam Robinson built his career as an educator, author, investment adviser, and U.S. Chess federation life master.

RANE Insights: A Conversation With Adam Robinson

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Economics

Military & Security

How are EU member states reevaluating their strategies with China?

Essential Geopolitics: Europe's Shifting Relationship With China

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 7, 2023

Snapshots

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Russian President Vladimir Putin and UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend a welcoming ceremony ahead of their talks in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 6, 2023.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The rare visit was likely aimed at aligning the Arab Gulf states on OPEC+ policy and assuaging their concerns about Russia's ties with Iran, but could prompt the U.S. to respond.

The Aims and Implications of Putin's Trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia

While the amount of foreign investment entering China has slowed sharply, a cyclical downturn of the U.S. economy and falling U.S. interest rates should help support a rebound in 2024.

What to Make of China's Falling Foreign Investment Flows

Israel

Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gather in El Korba Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Oct. 2, 2023, as they wait for him to announce his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election.

The president's widely expected re-election will free him to pursue economic reforms and pragmatic ties with Israel, as well as measures aimed at growing the country's tourism and energy sectors.

What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt

Guyana

Venezuela

A man on a motorcycle rides past a mural in Caracas, Venezuela, campaigning for a referendum on annexing the Guyana-administered region of Essequibo on Nov. 28, 2023. 

Caracas will likely use the referendum results to drum up political support ahead of the 2024 presidential election, but it remains unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of its eastern neighbor.

Venezuelan Voters Back Referendum Over Region Disputed With Guyana

Iran

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

A picture taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip on Dec. 4, 2023, shows smoke lingering over the Palestinian territory following Israeli bombardment amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas.

Israel's forthcoming military operations in southern Gaza signal that the war is reaching its final stages, though problems in the Gaza Strip are far from over.

The Israel-Hamas War's Final Phase?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

Brazil

Hong Kong SAR, China

A photo taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip shows a rocket being fired from inside Gaza toward Israel, as fighting resumed between the Israeli forces and Hamas militants after a temporary cease-fire expired on Dec. 1, 2023.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza War Resumes, Venezuela Votes on Guyana Dispute

Latest

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

(From left to right) The presidents of Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, Uruguay and Bolivia pose for photographs during the annual Mercosur leadership summit on Dec. 7, 2023, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Environment, Science & Technology

The addition of Bolivia's small market will yield limited economic gains for the South American trade bloc, and may ultimately result in more internal disputes and challenges due to the country's political turbulence and poor environmental record.

For Mercosur, Bolivia's Accession May Bring More Headaches Than Benefits

Children receive a drip at a children's hospital in Beijing, China, on Nov. 23, 2023, the same day the World Health Organization asked China for more data on a respiratory illness spreading in the north of the country. 

While the wave of winter illnesses is unlikely to retrigger mass lockdowns and travel restrictions, the mere prospect could hurt Chinese consumption and harm the business environment.

Is 'Zero Covid' Returning to China?

Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares to deliver a speech in parliament about the budget crisis on Nov. 28, 2023, as Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (left), Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck look on. 

While the three members of the ruling coalition will likely reach a compromise, complex negotiations over spending cuts could still collapse the government next year.

Where Is Germany's Budget Crisis Headed?

Yemen

A Yemeni man about the alleged Houthi-linked hijacking of an Israeli ship in the Red Sea at a newsstand on Nov. 20, 2023, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Iran-backed rebel group's escalating harassment of military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea may eventually force the U.S. and Israel to respond by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.

Houthi Maritime Attacks Risk Bringing the Gaza War to Yemen

People wave flags and cheer as a helicopter with Israeli hostages released earlier by Hamas lands at a medical center on Nov. 26, 2023, in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Fighting in Gaza will likely resume once Hamas runs out of hostages to exchange, which could see Israel-U.S. ties fray if the former doesn't heed the latter's calls to minimize civilian casualties.

How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (C), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom, sits next to Frans Timmermans (R), leader of the Green Left-Labor Party alliance, and Henri Bontenbal (L), leader of the Christian Democratic Appeal party, during a meeting in the Dutch parliament on Nov. 24, 2023, in The Hague, Netherlands. The party leaders are discussing the formation of a coalition government following Wilders' victory in the Nov. 22 general election.

Social Issues

The Netherlands' far-right Party for Freedom will moderate its platform as it struggles to attract coalition partners and win a parliamentary majority.

Despite a Far-Right Victory, Constraints Will Moderate the Netherlands' Next Government 

South Sudan

Sudan

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

Italy

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zambia

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Bahrain's king (not pictured) at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on Oct. 17, 2023. 

The most right-wing Italian government in decades has so far also proven to be one of the most stable. But that could change if Italy's economic fragility gives way to internal fractures in Meloni's coalition.

Reviewing Italy's First Year Under Meloni: From Anti-Establishment to Pragmatic

Japan

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

Poland

Former European Council President Donald Tusk is expected to become Poland's next prime minister after incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki lost a confidence vote in the country's lower house of the National Assembly, the Sejm, Reuters reported on Dec. 11.

Poland: National Assembly to Elect Donald Tusk as New Prime Minister

Bulgaria

Austria's Interior Minister Gerhard Karner said Vienna could relax its objection to Romania's and Bulgaria's membership in the Schengen area for passport-free air travel in exchange for a major increase in the two countries' security measures at borders with non-EU countries, Reuters reported on Dec. 11.

Austria, Romania, Bulgaria: Austria Opens to Passport-Free Air Travel for Romania and Bulgaria

Philippines

Three ramming and water cannon confrontations occurred in the South China Sea between Chinese and Philippine maritime forces over the weekend of Dec. 9-10, The Straits Times reported on Dec. 11.

China, Philippines: Three Weekend Incidents Prompt Manila to Summon Chinese Envoy

Luxembourg

Denmark

Greece

France

Spain

Cyber

EU policymakers reached a provisional deal on the landmark Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, the world's first comprehensive AI regulatory framework, The New York Times reported on Dec. 8.

EU: Policymakers Reach Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act

Guatemala

The office of Guatemala's Attorney General on Dec. 8 announced that it found ''irregularities'' in its probe on the presidential election and that the results in which Bernardo Arevalo was elected president should be annulled, Bloomberg reported the same day.

Guatemala: Attorney General's Office Claims Presidential Election Results Are Invalid

Graphics

Venezuelan lawmaker Pedro Carreno (L) delivers a speech while Venezuelan deputy Diosdado Cabello (R) holds a map showing the border between Venezuela and Guyana during a legislative session in Caracas on Jan. 8, 2019.

Venezuela is ramping up border operations as it prepares to pursue its territorial claims on Guyana's Essequibo region.

Venezuela's Reach for Guyana's Territory

Science & Technology

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced via state television the construction of 120 homes to benefit the "Esequibano-Venezuelan people," Infobae reported on Dec. 7.

Venezuela, Guyana: Venezuela To Build Homes in Disputed Territory

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 30, 2023

Bangladesh

Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date. 

Growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and state repression risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of the Jan. 7 ballot.

Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the world's first CRISPR treatment, which leverages gene-editing technology, for individuals suffering from sickle cell disease, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 8.

US: FDA Approves First CRISPR Treatment for Sickle Cell Disease

Apple is working with Chinese company BYD, a major iPad assembler, to move new product introduction, or NPI, resources to Vietnam, marking the first time Apple will shift NPI for one of its main product lines to the country, Nikkei Asia reported on Dec. 8.

Vietnam: Apple to Move Part of iPad Engineering Supply Chain From China

At China's December Politburo meeting on the economy, President Xi Jinping urged the government to guard against systemic risks, promote "reasonable growth,"  "moderately strengthen" fiscal policies, and "ensure that migrant workers' wages are paid in full," Xinhua News Agency reported on Dec. 8.

China: Economic Meeting Reveals Debt, Unrest and Loyalty Worries

Zimbabwe

Zimbabwe's Harare High Court barred most opposition candidates from running in the Dec. 9 by-elections in nine constituencies, Africanews reported the same day. 

Zimbabwe: Opposition Lawmakers Banned From By-Elections

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Venezuela's Reach for Guyana's Territory

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland: National Assembly to Elect Donald Tusk as New Prime Minister

Austria, Romania, Bulgaria: Austria Opens to Passport-Free Air Travel for Romania and Bulgaria

China, Philippines: Three Weekend Incidents Prompt Manila to Summon Chinese Envoy

EU: Policymakers Reach Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act

Guatemala: Attorney General's Office Claims Presidential Election Results Are Invalid

Venezuela, Guyana: Venezuela To Build Homes in Disputed Territory

US: FDA Approves First CRISPR Treatment for Sickle Cell Disease

Vietnam: Apple to Move Part of iPad Engineering Supply Chain From China

China: Economic Meeting Reveals Debt, Unrest and Loyalty Worries

Zimbabwe: Opposition Lawmakers Banned From By-Elections

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