Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

United States

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Ukraine

Russia

Sri Lanka

Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Europe

The OECD logo is seen at the organization's headquarters in Paris, France, on Dec. 5, 2024.

Trump's move to exit the deal and investigate other countries' alleged discriminatory tax policies could result in the U.S. imposing retaliatory trade and tax measures on foreign companies and individuals.

The Impact of Trump's Withdrawal From the OECD Global Tax Deal

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 13, 2025

Snapshots

Romania

People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025. 

The crisis is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would strain EU relations and jeopardize crucial funds from the bloc.

Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (center) addresses the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 5, 2025, ahead of a vote on a no-confidence motion against him. 

The approval of a budget for 2025 averts an immediate political crisis and offers short-term relief to markets, yet France's politics are still unstable and its medium-term fiscal policy direction remains uncertain.

France Passes Its 2025 Budget, but Political and Economic Challenges Persist

Angola

Burundi

Uganda

An M23 fighter stands in the foreground as detained Congolese soldiers are loaded onto trucks on Jan. 30, 2025, in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. 

Unless the Congolese government agrees to enter direct talks, Rwanda-backed rebels will likely resume their advance toward the city of Bukavu, whose fall would expose Congo to mounting instability, including nationwide unrest and a potential military coup.

Fighting in Eastern Congo Reaches a Crossroads as Rebels Press Southward

Germany

Campaign posters featuring various German parties are pictured in Kastel, western Germany, on Jan. 22, 2025, ahead of parliamentary elections.

A two-party coalition could lead to more streamlined decision-making in Berlin, while a three-party coalition may lead to instability, prolonging policy uncertainty both domestically and within the EU.

Germany's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a luncheon at the U.S. State Department on June 23, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Discussions between the two leaders will likely focus on addressing India's trade surplus with the U.S., exploring ways to mitigate potential tariffs, and deepening defense cooperation.

What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump

China

Myanmar

Members of Myanmar's military patrol on a street next to Shwedagon Pagoda during the fourth anniversary of the military coup in Yangon on Feb. 1, 2025. 

The junta will struggle to retain control over large parts of the country in 2025, but it will still seek to hold elections to legitimize continued rule by civilian proxy and appease China.

Facing Territorial Losses and External Pressure, Myanmar's Junta Plans Elections

Ecuador

Jordan

Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to the press in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Meets With India and Jordan's Leaders, Ecuador Holds Elections

Latest

(Left to right) U.S., Saudi and Russian officials attend a meeting in Riyadh on Feb. 18, 2025.

While the talks open the door to a ceasefire, the exclusion of Ukraine and its European partners creates the risk of a deal that is not enforced and fails to end the fighting.

What To Expect From U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine

Syria

Turkey

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

A truck crosses the Ambassador Bridge from Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, Michigan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

In addition to potentially triggering painful retaliatory tariffs from top U.S. trade partners, the tariffs could upend U.S. supply chains as domestic manufacturers struggle to boost production.

The Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-China Relations

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

United Kingdom

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

South Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Iran

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Afghanistan

Around six Afghan Taliban officials (purportedly deputy ministers from Afghanistan's ministries of foreign affairs, education, economy and health) arrived in Japan on Feb. 16 for a weeklong visit, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Feb. 18.

Afghanistan, Japan: Afghan Taliban Make First Visit to Japan Since 2021 Takeover

Sri Lanka's President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is also the country's finance minister, announced a budget that appears broadly aligned with International Monetary Fund bailout conditions but also includes populist economic measures, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 17.

Sri Lanka: Budget Attempts To Balance Populist Appeals With IMF Bailout Conditions

Mexico

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has increased drone flights over Mexico to surveil the area for cartel activities, including fentanyl labs, the New York Times reported Feb. 18, citing anonymous U.S. officials. 

U.S., Mexico: Reports of Increased U.S. Surveillance Flights Over Mexico

Somalia

Ethiopia and Somalia began holding their first round of technical talks over Ethiopia's quest to secure maritime access through Somalia in Turkey, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 18.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access 

Burundi is withdrawing its forces deployed to the Democratic Republic of the Congo against the Alliance for the Congo River, or AFC, a rebel alliance led by the Rwandan-backed M23, Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

Congo: Burundi Withdraws Troops Amid Infighting Among Pro-Government Forces Following Loss of Bukavu

South Sudan

South Sudan deployed thousands of troops to Nasir county in Upper Nile state to enforce a disarmament campaign following recent clashes between the South Sudan People's Defense Forces and local armed youth, Sudans Post reported on Feb. 17.

South Sudan: Ongoing Clashes Highlight Fragility of 2018 Peace Agreement

The Israel Defense Forces, or IDF, will remain at five strategic outposts in southern Lebanon despite the Feb. 18 withdrawal deadline due to Israel's worries about the Lebanese Armed Forces' constrained willingness and ability to enforce Hezbollah's disarmament, CNN reported on Feb. 18.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF To Remain in Lebanon Past Withdrawal Deadline

Chinese President Xi Jinping held a symposium with the heads of major Chinese companies on Feb. 17 in Beijing, where he reiterated the state's support for private enterprise and pledged to reduce obstacles to funding and public contracts as well as curb legal and regulatory excesses, Xinhua reported the next day. 

China: Xi Holds Rare Meeting With Chinese CEOs, Tries To Quell Concerns

Argentina

Argentine investors and politicians have filed more than 100 lawsuits since Feb. 14, when President Javier Milei promoted on X a crypto coin that surged and collapsed in a matter of hours, causing up to $4 billion in losses to more than 40,000 people, El Pais reported on Feb. 18.

Argentina: Crypto Scandal To Undermine President's Credibility, but Impeachment Remains Unlikely

Science & Technology

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

Egypt

Cyprus

Cyprus and Egypt signed agreements that would see Cyprus send offshore natural gas to Egypt, where liquefaction facilities at Idku and Damietta would commercialize and reexport the gas, AP reported on Feb. 17.

Cyprus, Egypt: Countries Sign Agreements To Export Cypriot Gas via Egypt

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Decade Forecast: 2025-2035

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Japan: Afghan Taliban Make First Visit to Japan Since 2021 Takeover

Sri Lanka: Budget Attempts To Balance Populist Appeals With IMF Bailout Conditions

U.S., Mexico: Reports of Increased U.S. Surveillance Flights Over Mexico

Ethiopia, Somalia: Governments Begin Technical Talks Over Maritime Access

Congo: Burundi Withdraws Troops Amid Infighting Among Pro-Government Forces Following Loss of Bukavu

South Sudan: Ongoing Clashes Highlight Fragility of 2018 Peace Agreement

Israel, Lebanon: IDF To Remain in Lebanon Past Withdrawal Deadline

China: Xi Holds Rare Meeting With Chinese CEOs, Tries To Quell Concerns

Argentina: Crypto Scandal To Undermine President's Credibility, but Impeachment Remains Unlikely

Cyprus, Egypt: Countries Sign Agreements To Export Cypriot Gas via Egypt

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