Assessments

United States

Turkey

Europe

An image of the Turkish flag. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Holds a Presidential Runoff, U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks Enter Crunch Time

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Germany

The Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, is seen at night.

Disputes over a new climate bill bode ill for the government's ability to negotiate a tight federal budget.

More Cracks Appear in Germany's Ruling Coalition

Media

Japan

South Korea

Podcasts

What forces are at play in shaping South Korea's strategic geopolitical relationships?

Applied Geopolitics: South Korea's Response to Shifting Geopolitical Balances 

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

Low water levels are seen at the Sidi Salem Dam, Tunisia's largest embankment dam, on April 6, 2023. 

Social Issues

Water and food shortages this summer will increase socioeconomic risks in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, along with the impetus for more sustainable agricultural practices. 

After a Dry Spring, Northwest Africa Braces for Disruptive Crop Failures

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 25, 2023

China

Why is Beijing cracking down on foreign businesses?

Essential Geopolitics: Beijing's Campaign Against U.S. Firms 

Spain

Leaders of the Council of the European Union, the bloc’s main decision-making body, hold a meeting in Brussels, Belgium in March 2017.

Spain's proposal to nix unanimity voting on strategic EU decisions will run up against resistance from smaller states that want to preserve their veto power.

In the EU, a New Push To Streamline Foreign Policy Decisions Emerges

Ukraine

Russia

Graphics

A woman walks past graffiti that reads, "No war," on March 14, 2022, in Moscow, Russia. 

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Domestic support in Russia for its war in Ukraine may continue to fall in the coming months should setbacks and embarrassments continue. 

Russian War Support Ahead of Ukraine's Offensive 

Does the opposition still have a chance to take the presidency?

Essential Geopolitics: What to Expect from Turkey's Runoff Election

India

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal holds a press conference on EU-India trade relations at the European Commission’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium on June 17, 2022.

A free trade agreement could help both sides reduce their respective dependencies on China, if disputes over issues like market access and tariffs don’t get in the way.

The Drivers and Challenges to an EU-India Trade Deal

Columns

On Geopolitics

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Latest

Supporters of Spain's center-right Popular Party (PP) gather outside the PP's headquarters in Madrid on May 28, 2023, to celebrate the party's strong performance in recent regional elections. 

The July 23 snap general ballot could yield a PP-Vox coalition that reverses some of Spain's fiscal policies, disrupts its EU presidency and increases the risk of social unrest.


In Spain, an Early Election Opens the Door to a Right-Wing Government

A soldier places flags at the gravesites of U.S. military members buried at the Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia on May 24, 2012. 

In addition to other coalition partners, the United States depends on local civilians and security forces overseas. 

Remembering America's Allies on Memorial Day

Qatar

Afghanistan

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves at supporters at the presidential palace after winning reelection in a runoff on May 29, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

President Erdogan will likely stay the course on most policies, though his government may scale back some of the unorthodox economic strategies that have vexed markets.

In Turkey, the Erdogan Era Continues

Ghana

Ghanaians march in Accra on Nov. 5, 2022, to protest against the government’s handling of the country’s dire economic crisis.

The $3 billion loan will boost the country's foreign reserves, though some of the required unpopular fiscal consolidation measures may increase political volatility.

An IMF Bailout Will Help Kick-Start Ghana's Economic Recovery, but Challenges Remain

Ecuador

Police forces stand guard outside Ecuador's National Assembly in Quito after the country's president issued a decree dissolving the legislature on May 17, 2023. 

Lasso's use of a constitutional clause to disband the legislature and rule by decree before early elections will face institutional opposition and likely spur disruptive protests.

Ecuador's President Dissolves Congress To Avoid Impeachment. But at What Cost?

Greece

Alexis Tsipras (left), who leads the left-wing Syriza party, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (right), who leads the right-wing New Democracy party, look in opposite directions during a televised debate in Athens on May 10, 2023. 

The May 21 ballot could yield a hung parliament, but despite potential policymaking delays, abrupt economic policy changes are improbable.

How Greece's Election Could Impact Its Economy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves to his supporters from a balcony in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2023. 

The opposition’s failure to secure a majority in parliament and win the first round of the presidential election increases the likelihood of Erdogan securing another term in the May 28 run-off.

In Turkey, a Presidential Run-Off Bodes Well for Erdogan

Thailand

A car with members of Thailand's opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), including leader Pita Limjaroenrat, drives through a large crowd of supporters during a rally in Bangkok on May 15, 2023, following the MFP's victory in the general election. 

As expected, Thailand's two main opposition parties dominated the May 14 general election. But the military establishment will seek to leverage its institutional controls to retain power.

Despite Their Electoral Victory, Thai Opposition Parties Will Struggle To Form a Government

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Sub-Saharan Africa

An aerial view of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is seen on Nov. 25, 2022.

Africa's expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity.

Africa's Population Boom, Part 1: The Opportunities and Risks

Burkina Faso

Burkinabe Prime Minister Apollinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela told the transitional Legislative Assembly that the government will never negotiate with jihadists, but that insecurity could postpone the country's transition to civilian rule, Africanews reported on May 30.

Burkina Faso: Prime Minister Hints at Extended Transition Timeline

Central African Republic

Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadera said his government will hold a constitutional referendum on July 15-28 to alter the constitution and remove term limits, Reuters reported on May 30.

Central African Republic: President Plans Constitutional Referendum to Cancel Term Limits

Honduras

Honduras' Port National Company, better know by its Spanish acronym ENP, signed an agreement with China Harbour Engineering Co. to construct two bridges, refurbish the San Lorenzo port on the Pacific coast and widen a 50 kilometer (31 mile) stretch of highway, BNamericas reported on May 30.

Honduras: Chinese Investment Highlights Advantages of Dropping Recognition of Taiwan

North Korea

North Korea's attempt to launch its first military reconnaissance satellite, the Chollima-1, failed, Yonhap News Agency reported on May 30.

North Korea: Failed Satellite Launch Prompts Evacuation Scare

Egypt

Cyprus

Energy

The partners developing Cyprus' 124 billion cubic meter (bcm) Aphrodite gas field -- Chevron, NewMed Energy and Shell -- submitted a revamped development plan to the Cypriot government that aims to connect the gas field to Egypt, Reuters reported on May 31.

Cyprus: Revamped Aphrodite Gas Field Project Would See Connection to Egypt

U.S. officials in the Biden administration are split over how to regulate artificial intelligence (AI), leading to uncertainty in the May 30-31 U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council talks, Bloomberg reported on May 31.

U.S.: Biden Administration Split over AI Regulations

Iraq

Iraq's Federal Supreme Court ruled that the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) parliament cannot self-extend its mandate for another year, deeming it unconstitutional, Rudaw Media Network reported on May 30. 

Iraq: Federal Supreme Court Says Extension of KRG Parliament's Term Is Unconstitutional 

The offices of U.S. semiconductor manufacturer Micron in Shanghai, China, are seen on May 22, 2023.

The partial ban on the U.S. firm's memory chips signals Beijing's willingness to use disruptive legal tools in the name of national security against Western companies amid the growing tech standoff.

By Banning U.S. Chipmaker Micron, China Hits Back at Western Tech Restrictions

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C), Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (R) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hold talks Oct. 31, 2022, in Sochi, Russia.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenia's and Azerbaijan's Leaders Meet in Moscow, an APEC Summit in Detroit

Israel

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

Drones hit Moscow -- including a wealthy area outside the city center -- in what appeared to be the first attack on residential areas of the Russian capital since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, NBC reported on May 30.

Russia: Drone Attack Elicits Division Among Officials, Pro-Kremlin Voices

Serbia

Kosovo

Violence erupted in Kosovo's northern Serb-majority municipality of Zvecan between ethnic Serbs and Kosovo's police and international peacekeepers, injuring at least 30 members of the NATO-led international force KFOR, Reuters reported May 29.

Kosovo, Serbia: NATO Peacekeepers Injured as Violence Erupts in Northern Kosovo

Poland

Polish President Andrzej Duda said he will sign into law a bill establishing a special parliamentary panel to investigate Russian influence in the country that could ban individuals from holding public office for up to 10 years, Politico reported on May 29.

Poland: President Duda Approves Controversial Investigation Commission

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Burkina Faso: Prime Minister Hints at Extended Transition Timeline

Central African Republic: President Plans Constitutional Referendum to Cancel Term Limits

Honduras: Chinese Investment Highlights Advantages of Dropping Recognition of Taiwan

North Korea: Failed Satellite Launch Prompts Evacuation Scare

Cyprus: Revamped Aphrodite Gas Field Project Would See Connection to Egypt

U.S.: Biden Administration Split over AI Regulations

Iraq: Federal Supreme Court Says Extension of KRG Parliament's Term Is Unconstitutional

Russia: Drone Attack Elicits Division Among Officials, Pro-Kremlin Voices

Kosovo, Serbia: NATO Peacekeepers Injured as Violence Erupts in Northern Kosovo

Poland: President Duda Approves Controversial Investigation Commission

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