Assessments

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Europe

A photo taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip shows a rocket being fired from inside Gaza toward Israel, as fighting resumed between the Israeli forces and Hamas militants after a temporary cease-fire expired on Dec. 1, 2023.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza War Resumes, Venezuela Votes on Guyana Dispute

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares to deliver a speech in parliament about the budget crisis on Nov. 28, 2023, as Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (left), Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck look on. 

Economics

Politics

While the three members of the ruling coalition will likely reach a compromise, complex negotiations over spending cuts could still collapse the government next year.

Where Is Germany's Budget Crisis Headed?

Yemen

A Yemeni man about the alleged Houthi-linked hijacking of an Israeli ship in the Red Sea at a newsstand on Nov. 20, 2023, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Military & Security

The Iran-backed rebel group's escalating harassment of military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea may eventually force the U.S. and Israel to respond by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.

Houthi Maritime Attacks Risk Bringing the Gaza War to Yemen

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 30, 2023

Bangladesh

Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date. 

Growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and state repression risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of the Jan. 7 ballot.

Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election

People wave flags and cheer as a helicopter with Israeli hostages released earlier by Hamas lands at a medical center on Nov. 26, 2023, in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Fighting in Gaza will likely resume once Hamas runs out of hostages to exchange, which could see Israel-U.S. ties fray if the former doesn't heed the latter's calls to minimize civilian casualties.

How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?

United Arab Emirates

Russia

COP28 President-Designate and the UAE's Special Envoy for Climate Change, Sultan al-Jaber (front row, fourth from left) -- poses for a group photo along with U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and other participants in the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on May 3, 2023, in Berlin, Germany.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

This year's U.N. conference will highlight disparities between the developed and developing world on climate ambitions, as well as individual countries' differing priorities.

What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (C), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom, sits next to Frans Timmermans (R), leader of the Green Left-Labor Party alliance, and Henri Bontenbal (L), leader of the Christian Democratic Appeal party, during a meeting in the Dutch parliament on Nov. 24, 2023, in The Hague, Netherlands. The party leaders are discussing the formation of a coalition government following Wilders' victory in the Nov. 22 general election.

Social Issues

The Netherlands' far-right Party for Freedom will moderate its platform as it struggles to attract coalition partners and win a parliamentary majority.

Despite a Far-Right Victory, Constraints Will Moderate the Netherlands' Next Government 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Supporters of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's ruling Sacred Union coalition gather at the Martyrs Stadium in Kinshasa on April 29, 2023.

Amid instability in the east, election interference and disunity, the Congo's opposition parties will struggle to gain a foothold during the country's December general elections.

In Congo, President Tshisekedi Looks to Secure a Second Term

Kenya

Saudi Arabia

OPEC headquarters on June 3, 2023, in Vienna. OPEC+ will meet Nov. 26 to decide whether to deepen production cuts.

The Weekly Rundown: Climate Negotiations at COP28, OPEC+ Meets Following an Oil Sell-off

Chinese and Hong Kong flags are strung between buildings to mark the 26th anniversary of the city's handover from Britain to China on June 27, 2023, in Hong Kong.

The territory will continue down the path of political and economic integration into China, complicating business operations in the region.

Hong Kong District Elections Herald Political and Economic Changes to Come

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Egypt

Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gather in El Korba Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Oct. 2, 2023, as they wait for him to announce his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election.

The president's widely expected re-election will free him to pursue economic reforms and pragmatic ties with Israel, as well as measures aimed at growing the country's tourism and energy sectors.

What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt

A man on a motorcycle rides past a mural in Caracas, Venezuela, campaigning for a referendum on annexing the Guyana-administered region of Essequibo on Nov. 28, 2023. 

Caracas will likely use the referendum results to drum up political support ahead of the 2024 presidential election, but it remains unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of its eastern neighbor.

Venezuelan Voters Back Referendum Over Region Disputed With Guyana

Iran

Lebanon

A picture taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip on Dec. 4, 2023, shows smoke lingering over the Palestinian territory following Israeli bombardment amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas.

Israel's forthcoming military operations in southern Gaza signal that the war is reaching its final stages, though problems in the Gaza Strip are far from over.

The Israel-Hamas War's Final Phase?

South Sudan

Sudan

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Palestinians receive bags of flour at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) distribution center in the Rafah refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on Nov. 21, 2023. 

The two sides are reportedly finalizing a deal to release hostages and suspend fighting, though its terms suggest that the halt in major combat will be temporary.

What to Make of Hamas and Israel's Pending Cease-Fire

U.S. President Joe Biden walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023.

The two presidents reached modest deals during their Nov. 15 meeting, but conflicting strategic visions will impede not only the implementation of these agreements but also long-term efforts to ease U.S.-China competition.

Pageantry vs. Progress: Reviewing the Biden-Xi Meeting 

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (right) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Nov. 9, 2023.

Despite inking new deals with Moscow, Astana will continue to deepen its ties with China, the West and Turkey, which over time will increase tensions with Russia.

Kazakhstan's Diversification Push Won't Spur Russian Retaliation -- For Now

Columns

On Geopolitics

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests vs. Ideals

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zambia

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Bahrain's king (not pictured) at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on Oct. 17, 2023. 

The most right-wing Italian government in decades has so far also proven to be one of the most stable. But that could change if Italy's economic fragility gives way to internal fractures in Meloni's coalition.

Reviewing Italy's First Year Under Meloni: From Anti-Establishment to Pragmatic

Japan

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

Science & Technology

China released a plan to build a coal production reserve system by 2027 and have 300 million tons (or 7% of China's 2022 coal consumption) in reserve coal production capacity by 2030, Reuters reported on Dec. 6.

China: Coal Reserves Illustrate Beijing's Priorities for Energy Transition

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro submitted a law to the legislature on Dec. 5 to incorporate Guyana's Essequibo territory as a new state, Bloomberg reported the next day.

Venezuela, Guyana: President Maduro Announces New Measures in Essequibo Region

The Italian government formally notified China of its intention to pull out from the Belt and Road Initiative, with Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani saying that the pact "has not produced the desired effects," ANSA reported on Dec. 6.

Italy, China: Rome Formally Exits China's Belt and Road Initiative

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Greece

France

Estonia

United Kingdom

Belgium

Portugal

Poland

Austria

Slovenia

Spain

The European Union proposed a three-year delay for tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) traded with the United Kingdom, which were originally set to enter into force in 2024 under the terms of the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), Bloomberg reported Dec. 6.

EU, U.K.: Brussels Proposes Three-Year Delay to EV Tariffs in Trade with London

Saudi Arabia announced a 30-year tax relief program for companies establishing their regional headquarters in the country, the Saudi Press Agency reported on Dec. 5.

Saudi Arabia: New Tax Exemptions Aim to Attract Companies' Headquarters

The U.S. State Department began implementing a new visa policy that restricted visas for Israelis "believed to have been involved in undermining peace, security or stability in the West Bank," Reuters reported on Dec. 5.

U.S, Israel: U.S. Imposes Visa Bans on Israeli Settler Extremists

Niger

Niger's military junta scrapped two key EU defense and security missions aimed at addressing jihadist violence in the Sahel, AP reported on Dec. 4.

Niger: Junta Revokes Key Agreements With EU, Strengthens Partnerships With Russia

Rwanda

The British government is taking action to curb both regular and irregular migration by introducing legislation that would make it harder for people to apply to live in the United Kingdom through legal means, Reuters reported Dec. 4.

U.K.: Government Unveils Stricter Visa Requirements, Works Towards New Rwanda Asylum Plan

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

The heads of the security services of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan said negotiators made a breakthrough regarding the operation of roads connecting the countries to their respective enclaves and isolated territories, Eurasianet reported on Dec. 4.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

Argentina

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

The U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is debating a set of draft recommendations, including the repeal of permanent normal trade relations with China, Politico reported on Dec. 4.

U.S., China: House Committee Debates Repeal of Permanent Normal Trade Relations With China

Media

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China: Coal Reserves Illustrate Beijing's Priorities for Energy Transition

Venezuela, Guyana: President Maduro Announces New Measures in Essequibo Region

Italy, China: Rome Formally Exits China's Belt and Road Initiative

EU, U.K.: Brussels Proposes Three-Year Delay to EV Tariffs in Trade with London

Saudi Arabia: New Tax Exemptions Aim to Attract Companies' Headquarters

U.S, Israel: U.S. Imposes Visa Bans on Israeli Settler Extremists

Niger: Junta Revokes Key Agreements With EU, Strengthens Partnerships With Russia

U.K.: Government Unveils Stricter Visa Requirements, Works Towards New Rwanda Asylum Plan

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

U.S., China: House Committee Debates Repeal of Permanent Normal Trade Relations With China

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support