Assessments

Ecuador

United States

Jordan

Europe

Ukraine

India

Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to the press in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2024.

Economics

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Meets With India and Jordan's Leaders, Ecuador Holds Elections

Media

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Podcasts

Military & Security

Essential Geopolitics: Increased Conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Russia

Is the Russia-Ukraine war Putin's Vietnam?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of U.S.-Russia Talks on War With Ukraine Part II

A woman walks past a mural of leftist presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez in Quito, Ecuador, on Feb. 5, 2025.

Noboa's reelection would portend more business-friendly policies that slowly improve Ecuador's economic conditions, while a victory by his left-wing challenger would see increased social spending that could jeopardize the country's IMF deal.

Previewing Ecuador's Presidential Election

Global Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 6, 2025

Is the Russia-Ukraine War Putin's Vietnam?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of U.S.-Russia Talks on War With Ukraine, Part I

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky looks on during a joint press conference with Poland's prime minister in Lviv on Dec. 17, 2024.

Despite growing pressure from the U.S. and Russia, Zelensky will resist proposals for Ukrainian elections and/or a ceasefire if he believes the terms would be political suicide for him and an affront to his country's interests.

How Will Peace Talks and Potential Elections Impact Ukraine's Political Stability? 

China

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Bangladeshi soldiers stand guard in Dhaka on July 27, 2024.

Since assuming power in August, Bangladesh's interim government has pursued closer ties with Pakistan and China, deepening India's concerns about regional stability and its declining influence over Dhaka.

Bangladesh's More Assertive Foreign Policy Puts India on Edge

Syria

A shuttered hotel is seen in Aleppo, Syria, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

To secure sanctions relief from the West, Syria's new leaders will likely take some symbolic steps toward forming an inclusive government, but any relief may prove temporary if Damascus diverges from its democratic promises.

The Prospect of Sanctions Relief for Post-Assad Syria

Snapshots

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-China Relations

South Korea

Essential Geopolitics: Key Events in South Korean Politics, Part II

Latest

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a luncheon at the U.S. State Department on June 23, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Discussions between the two leaders will likely focus on addressing India's trade surplus with the U.S., exploring ways to mitigate potential tariffs, and deepening defense cooperation.

What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump

Myanmar

Members of Myanmar's military patrol on a street next to Shwedagon Pagoda during the fourth anniversary of the military coup in Yangon on Feb. 1, 2025. 

The junta will struggle to retain control over large parts of the country in 2025, but it will still seek to hold elections to legitimize continued rule by civilian proxy and appease China.

Facing Territorial Losses and External Pressure, Myanmar's Junta Plans Elections

Environment, Science & Technology

While wars over water remain rare, its unequal distribution, growing demand and climate change-driven stress will increasingly shape global challenges and geopolitical tensions in the decades to come.

The Geopolitics of Water: Conclusion

The Geopolitics of Water

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Brazil

Colombia

Cuba

Haiti

Nicaragua

Venezuela

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Cambodia

Indonesia

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Afghanistan

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

United Kingdom

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Columns

On Geopolitics

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential proclamation slapping new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, Reuters reported on Feb. 10. 

U.S.: Trump Approves New 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum 

The Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas announced that it would delay its next planned release of Israeli hostages from Feb. 15 "until further notice," accusing Israel of violating the terms of their ceasefire, CNN reported on Feb. 10.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Delays Next Prisoner Release as Ceasefire Wobbles

France

Science & Technology

France will commit 109 billion euros ($112.5 billion) in private sector artificial intelligence investments over the coming years, French President Emmanuel Macron announced in a broadcast with France 2 on Feb. 9.

France: Macron Announces 109B Euro Investment in AI

The Election Commission of India announced on Feb. 8 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party regained power in Delhi after 27 years by winning the most seats in the Feb. 5 state legislature election, The Hindu reported on Feb. 9. 

India: BJP Wins Delhi Assembly Elections

Cyber

France and India will cohost the AI Action Summit in Paris on Feb. 10-11, during which attendees will look broadly at artificial intelligence risks such as environmental impact, income inequality and bias, Reuters reported on Feb. 10. 

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

Romania

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced his resignation, citing the need to avert a political crisis as opposition parties in Parliament prepared to vote on his potential impeachment, Reuters reported on Feb. 10.

Romania: President Resigns Months Ahead of Elections Rerun Amid Political Pressures

Sudan

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, plans to form a new government once it captures Sudan's entire capital city, BBC reported on Feb. 10.

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa came in first in the first round of Ecuador's presidential election on Feb. 9 with 44.37% of the vote, only a slight majority from opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez of the left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement, who received 43.86% of the vote, The New York Times reported on Feb. 10.

Ecuador: Incumbent and Leftist Opposition Candidate Progress to Presidential Runoff

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

Lebanon's new Prime Minister Nawaf Salam formed a Cabinet of 24 ministers, including four Shiites whom the Amal Movement party (an ally of the political and militant group Hezbollah) named, as well as a fifth Shiite whom Salam picked, Reuters reported on Feb. 8.

Lebanon: Prime Minister Forms Government, Pledges Reforms and UNSC 1701

The Philippines and Canada are in the final stages of negotiating a visiting forces agreement, the Straits Times reported Feb. 9. 

Philippines, Canada: Manila and Ottawa Nearing Visiting Forces Pact

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Trump Approves New 25% Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Delays Next Prisoner Release as Ceasefire Wobbles

France: Macron Announces 109B Euro Investment in AI

India: BJP Wins Delhi Assembly Elections

Cyberspace, France: AI Action Summit Held in Paris

Romania: President Resigns Months Ahead of Elections Rerun Amid Political Pressures

Sudan: Army Plans New Government Amid Advances in Capital

Ecuador: Incumbent and Leftist Opposition Candidate Progress to Presidential Runoff

Lebanon: Prime Minister Forms Government, Pledges Reforms and UNSC 1701

Philippines, Canada: Manila and Ottawa Nearing Visiting Forces Pact

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