Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 7, 2023

Egypt

Israel

Supporters of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gather in El Korba Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Oct. 2, 2023, as they wait for him to announce his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election.

Economics

Politics

The president's widely expected re-election will free him to pursue economic reforms and pragmatic ties with Israel, as well as measures aimed at growing the country's tourism and energy sectors.

What Another El-Sisi Term Would Mean for Egypt

Guyana

Venezuela

A man on a motorcycle rides past a mural in Caracas, Venezuela, campaigning for a referendum on annexing the Guyana-administered region of Essequibo on Nov. 28, 2023. 

Energy

Military & Security

Caracas will likely use the referendum results to drum up political support ahead of the 2024 presidential election, but it remains unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of its eastern neighbor.

Venezuelan Voters Back Referendum Over Region Disputed With Guyana

Iran

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

A picture taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip on Dec. 4, 2023, shows smoke lingering over the Palestinian territory following Israeli bombardment amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas.

Israel's forthcoming military operations in southern Gaza signal that the war is reaching its final stages, though problems in the Gaza Strip are far from over.

The Israel-Hamas War's Final Phase?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

Brazil

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Europe

A photo taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip shows a rocket being fired from inside Gaza toward Israel, as fighting resumed between the Israeli forces and Hamas militants after a temporary cease-fire expired on Dec. 1, 2023.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza War Resumes, Venezuela Votes on Guyana Dispute

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares to deliver a speech in parliament about the budget crisis on Nov. 28, 2023, as Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (left), Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck look on. 

While the three members of the ruling coalition will likely reach a compromise, complex negotiations over spending cuts could still collapse the government next year.

Where Is Germany's Budget Crisis Headed?

Yemen

A Yemeni man about the alleged Houthi-linked hijacking of an Israeli ship in the Red Sea at a newsstand on Nov. 20, 2023, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Iran-backed rebel group's escalating harassment of military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea may eventually force the U.S. and Israel to respond by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.

Houthi Maritime Attacks Risk Bringing the Gaza War to Yemen

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 30, 2023

Bangladesh

Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date. 

Growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and state repression risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of the Jan. 7 ballot.

Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election

People wave flags and cheer as a helicopter with Israeli hostages released earlier by Hamas lands at a medical center on Nov. 26, 2023, in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Fighting in Gaza will likely resume once Hamas runs out of hostages to exchange, which could see Israel-U.S. ties fray if the former doesn't heed the latter's calls to minimize civilian casualties.

How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?

Latest

While the amount of foreign investment entering China has slowed sharply, a cyclical downturn of the U.S. economy and falling U.S. interest rates should help support a rebound in 2024.

What to Make of China's Falling Foreign Investment Flows

Children receive a drip at a children's hospital in Beijing, China, on Nov. 23, 2023, the same day the World Health Organization asked China for more data on a respiratory illness spreading in the north of the country. 

Environment, Science & Technology

While the wave of winter illnesses is unlikely to retrigger mass lockdowns and travel restrictions, the mere prospect could hurt Chinese consumption and harm the business environment.

Is 'Zero Covid' Returning to China?

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and UAE leader Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend a welcoming ceremony ahead of their talks in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 6, 2023.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The rare visit was likely aimed at aligning the Arab Gulf states on OPEC+ policy and assuaging their concerns about Russia's ties with Iran, but could prompt the U.S. to respond.

The Aims and Implications of Putin's Trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (C), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom, sits next to Frans Timmermans (R), leader of the Green Left-Labor Party alliance, and Henri Bontenbal (L), leader of the Christian Democratic Appeal party, during a meeting in the Dutch parliament on Nov. 24, 2023, in The Hague, Netherlands. The party leaders are discussing the formation of a coalition government following Wilders' victory in the Nov. 22 general election.

Social Issues

The Netherlands' far-right Party for Freedom will moderate its platform as it struggles to attract coalition partners and win a parliamentary majority.

Despite a Far-Right Victory, Constraints Will Moderate the Netherlands' Next Government 

South Sudan

Sudan

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Palestinians receive bags of flour at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) distribution center in the Rafah refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on Nov. 21, 2023. 

The two sides are reportedly finalizing a deal to release hostages and suspend fighting, though its terms suggest that the halt in major combat will be temporary.

What to Make of Hamas and Israel's Pending Cease-Fire

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

Italy

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zambia

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Bahrain's king (not pictured) at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on Oct. 17, 2023. 

The most right-wing Italian government in decades has so far also proven to be one of the most stable. But that could change if Italy's economic fragility gives way to internal fractures in Meloni's coalition.

Reviewing Italy's First Year Under Meloni: From Anti-Establishment to Pragmatic

Japan

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

Science & Technology

Venezuelan authorities arrested a member of the team responsible for planning the opposition's October primaries on Dec. 6, alleging treason, conspiracy and money laundering, Reuters reported the next day.

Venezuela: Government Issues Arrest Warrants for Opposition Members

Turkey

Sweden

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan linked the National Assembly's pending ratification of Sweden's NATO bid to U.S. approval of an F-16 fighter jet sale to Turkey, Al-Monitor reported on Dec. 6.

Turkey: Erdogan Links Sweden's NATO Bid to F-16 Acquisition

Burkina Faso

Chad

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Chad and Mauritania announced that they are paving the way for the dissolution of the G5 Sahel, an alliance that was formed to address development and security issues, particularly terrorism in the Sahel region, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 6.

Chad, Mauritania: Nations Announce End of G5 Sahel

Peru

Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori was released from prison on humanitarian grounds on Dec. 6, Reuters reported the next day.

Peru: Fujimori Released From Prison, Sparking Outrage and Protest

Australia

Fiji

New Zealand

Papua New Guinea

Tonga

France

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced that France would open a permanent defense mission in Fiji, and he detailed plans to grow France's training capacity for Pacific island countries' soldiers six-fold by opening a Pacific Academy in France's New Caledonia territory, Tahiti Info reported on Dec. 6.

France: Paris Strengthens Defense Cooperation With Pacific Island Countries

Rwanda

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled emergency legislation that would allow it to pursue his government's flagship immigration plan of relocating asylum seekers to Rwanda, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

U.K.: Sunak Unveils Emergency Legislation to Save Rwanda Migration Plan, but Widens Conservative Party Split

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev unexpectedly signed a decree calling a snap presidential election for Feb. 7, 2024, Eurasianet reported Dec. 7. 

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls For Early Feb. 7 Presidential Election

U.S.-China Relations

The CEO of UAE artificial intelligence company Group 42, or G42, said his company will cut ties with Chinese suppliers in favor of U.S. suppliers to ensure access to cutting-edge AI chips designed by American firms like Nvidia, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 7.

UAE: Emirati AI Company to Cut Ties With Chinese Suppliers to Appease U.S.

COP28 President-Designate and the UAE's Special Envoy for Climate Change, Sultan al-Jaber (front row, fourth from left) -- poses for a group photo along with U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and other participants in the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on May 3, 2023, in Berlin, Germany.

This year's U.N. conference will highlight disparities between the developed and developing world on climate ambitions, as well as individual countries' differing priorities.

What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

Argentina

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said Saudi Arabia would extend timelines for some projects under the Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy to minimize inflationary pressures and supply bottlenecks, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 7.

Saudi Arabia: Government to Delay Some Vision 2030 Projects

Ukraine

Ukraine's top national security leaders and representatives of Ukraine's top arms manufacturers are in Washington to meet with their U.S. counterparts for the first U.S.-Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference, Politico reported on Dec. 6. 

Ukraine, U.S.: U.S.-Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference Commences

Media

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Venezuela: Government Issues Arrest Warrants for Opposition Members

Turkey: Erdogan Links Sweden's NATO Bid to F-16 Acquisition

Chad, Mauritania: Nations Announce End of G5 Sahel

Peru: Fujimori Released From Prison, Sparking Outrage and Protest

France: Paris Strengthens Defense Cooperation With Pacific Island Countries

U.K.: Sunak Unveils Emergency Legislation to Save Rwanda Migration Plan, but Widens Conservative Party Split

Azerbaijan: Aliyev Calls For Early Feb. 7 Presidential Election

UAE: Emirati AI Company to Cut Ties With Chinese Suppliers to Appease U.S.

Saudi Arabia: Government to Delay Some Vision 2030 Projects

Ukraine, U.S.: U.S.-Ukraine Defense Industrial Base Conference Commences

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