Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 1, 2022

Media

Venezuela

Podcasts

Energy

Politics

Listen to learn what will come from negotiations between Venezuela's government and the opposition interim government.

Essential Geopolitics: How Will Venezuela's Renewed Negotiations Process Play Out?

Russia

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Increased Russian naval activity in recent years around underwater cables is causing concern.

Essential Geopolitics: The Russian Threat to Cable Internet Infrastructure

The Flags of France and the United States on June 6, 2017, at Utah Beach, France. U.S. President Joe Biden will meet his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, on Dec. 1, 2022, at the White House. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Macron meets Biden, Taiwan Holds Local Elections

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 24, 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

We discuss the latest flare-up of violence near the country's eastern border with Rwanda and what it means for other nearby nations. 


Essential Geopolitics: What’s Going on in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

Economics

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

Snapshots

Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson speaks during a session in the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh on Nov. 23, 2022, after the U.K. Supreme Court ruled that Scotland does not have the right to hold another independence referendum without the consent of the U.K. government. 

The Supreme Court ruling will force Scotland’s government to delay its push for independence to the U.K.’s 2024 general election and could spur more calls for unilateral moves in the future.

U.K. Court Strikes Down a New Scottish Independence Referendum

Malaysia

A voter shows a fading inked finger from casting a vote during Malaysia's Nov. 19 general election on Nov. 22, 2022, in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. Whatever government emerges victorious will be less able to engage in major domestic reforms and foreign policy initiatives as it contends with a weak mandate.

Whatever government emerges victorious will struggle to engage in major domestic reforms and foreign policy initiatives as it contends with a weak mandate.

A Hung Parliament in Malaysia Portends Further Instability

Columns

On Security

Israel

Palestinian Territories

A Palestinian youth throws a rock with a slingshot at Israeli security forces during Oct. 3, 2022, clashes at the northern entrance of the city of Ramallah in the West Bank. The recent sustained increase in Palestinian militant violence highlights both the short-and long-term threat West Bank militancy poses to Israeli-Palestinian security.

The recent sustained increase in Palestinian militant violence highlights both the short-and long-term threat West Bank militancy poses to Israeli-Palestinian security.

The Security Implications of Intensifying West Bank Militancy

Japan

Scott Kardas, a RANE Asia-Pacific analyst, offers insight into Japan's decision to up its military capability.

Essential Geopolitics: What You Need to Know About Japan's Remilitarization

Saudi Arabia

China

Europe

(From left to right) U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meet on the sidelines of the COP27 climate summit in Egypt on Nov. 7, 2022. 

While they established a fund for poor countries hit hard by climate change, negotiators at this year’s U.N. summit failed to advance efforts to actually curb global warming.

COP27 Yields Deal to Compensate for Climate Damages, But No Progress on Phasing Down Fossil Fuels

Latest

Argentina

Anelo, Neuquen province, Argentina, on Nov. 26, 2019, in the Vaca Muerta formation. Oil and gas producers in the Vaca Muerta shale formation are enjoying rapid growth, but political, infrastructure and economic challenges will limit Buenos Aires' goals.

Oil and gas producers in the Vaca Muerta shale formation are enjoying rapid growth, but political, infrastructure and economic challenges will limit Buenos Aires' goals.

Argentina's Shale Reach Exceeds Its Grasp

Itamar Ben Gvir, the leader of Israel’s far-right Oztma Yehudit party, holds a press conference on Nov. 28, 2022, in Jerusalem.

The Religious Zionism party will use its success in the Nov. 1 election to push its nationalist and ultra-Orthodox agenda, even as Israel’s regional and Western allies warn against doing so.

What the Far-Right’s Electoral Victory Means for Israel

Protesters march by a police cruiser during a protest against China's strict "zero-COVID" measures on Nov. 27, 2022, in Beijing.

Beijing will respond by maintaining COVID-19 restrictions, as well as with mass arrests of protesters (without a military crackdown) and knee-jerk reactions to foreign pressure.

Protests Unlikely to Budge Beijing on 'Zero-COVID'

Romania

Moldova

Power lines are seen on the outskirts of Balti, the second-largest city in Moldova, on Nov. 2, 2022. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia’s gas cut-offs are making Moldova increasingly vulnerable, with widespread blackouts, rampant inflation and growing pro-Russian anti-government protests. 

Will Moldova Be the First To Fall in Russia’s Energy War on Europe?

Poland

Ukraine

A suspected missile crater in Przewodow, Poland.

After missile-linked explosions killed two people in Poland's town of Przewodow near Ukraine, Poland will likely trigger NATO's Article IV.

The Key Questions Surrounding the Missile-Linked Explosions in Poland

Ireland

Sinn Fein vice president Michelle O'Neill holds a press conference outside the Northern Ireland Assembly in Belfast on Nov. 9, 2022, after the United Kingdom announced an extended deadline for Northern Ireland's main parties to form a government before a new election is triggered. 

London now has a few more months to hash out a deal with Brussels on customs controls in the Irish Sea, which has barred the formation of a regional government in Belfast.

By Delaying Northern Ireland's Election, the U.K. Buys More Time to Settle Its Trade Disputes With the EU

Canada

Germany

France

Italy

Officials from Germany, Ghana, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, the African Union, the European Union, France, the United States and Kenya participate in a working session at a G-7 Foreign Ministers Meeting in Muenster, western Germany, on Nov. 4, 2022. 

The world’s most developed economies are generally poised to ride out the impending global recession -- with debt-ridden Italy being the one possible exception.

Assessing the Risk of Debt Crises in G-7 Countries

Libya

A photo shows the Mellitah Oil and Gas terminal in western Libya, which is a joint venture between Italy's Eni and Libya's National Oil Company. 

Efforts by countries like Turkey and Egypt to further their own interests by exploiting Libya's internal rivalries risk disrupting peace talks and the country's energy exports.

External Meddling in Libya's Crisis Portends More Infighting and Oil Blockades

Ethiopia

Redwan Hussein (second from the left), a representative of the Ethiopian government, and Getachew Reda (second from the right), a representative of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), sign a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on Nov. 2, 2022.

The government has inked a preliminary deal with Tigrayan rebels to end their two-year war. But historical grievances, implementation challenges, mistrust and third-party spoilers will risk returning the country to violence.

 In Ethiopia, Will a 'Permanent' Cessation of Hostilities Actually Install Lasting Peace?

Iran

People demonstrate outside the Iranian embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Oct. 17, 2022, after the city was hit by swarms of drones sold by Iran to Russia, leaving at least three dead. 

While unlikely to offer up its advanced defense systems like the Iron Dome, Israel could provide more intelligence that actively helps Kyiv fend off Iran-backed Russian troops. 

Amid Increased Iranian Support to Russia, Israel Cautiously Increases Aid to Ukraine

Brazil

A supporter of Brazil's former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva celebrates on a street in Sao Paulo after da Silva was declared the winner of the country's presidential election on Oct. 30, 2022. 

Brazil's polarized and conservative political climate will constrain President-elect da Silva from enacting his left-wing policy agenda -- especially if his predecessor refuses to concede. 

Brazil Gives Bolsonaro the Boot. What Now?

On Geopolitics

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

A construction site of a stadium being built for the 2022 World Cup is seen on March 30, 2019, in Doha, Qatar. 

The high sunk cost of this year's games in Doha is fueling questions about the long-term economic sustainability of such massive infrastructure projects in the Arab Gulf.

Will the World Cup Be the Grand Finale of Qatar's Megaprojects Era?

North Korea

South Korea

A photo provided by the South Korean Defense Ministry on Nov. 9, 2022, shows the retrieved debris of a ballistic missile that North Korea recently fired across the two countries’ de facto maritime border. 

Its response to recent U.S.-South Korean military drills shows Pyongyang is growing more confident in its ability to manage escalation and reshape its own security environment.

The Implications of North Korea’s Shifting Deterrence Strategy

Police officers remove a chain Nov. 10, 2022, from the neck of an activist as climate activists block the entrance of the Milano Linate Prime fixed-base operator airport facility in Milan.

Social Issues

Despite their attention-grabbing actions, their message is muddled, the audience is ambiguous and the call to action is unclear.

Will Climate Change Activists' Provocative Tactics Prove an Own Goal?

Demonstrators wave the Israeli flag and the banner of the far-right Jewish group "Lehava" (Flame) gather for the "Flag March" on May 29, 2022, marking "Jerusalem Day" in the Old City of Jerusalem. Palestinian attacks and Israeli nationalist rhetoric appear to be increasing Israelis' support for far-right narratives and policies, with notable implications for Israel's national security.

Palestinian attacks and Israeli nationalist rhetoric appear to be increasing Israelis' support for far-right narratives and policies, with notable implications for Israel's national security.

Examining the Israeli Right Wing and Its Implications for National Security

Saudi and U.S. flags line the King Abdulaziz Road in the Saudi Red Sea port city of Jeddah on July 14, 2022. 

U.S.-Saudi relations will continue to deteriorate as the world grows increasingly multipolar.

A Multipolar World Makes More Room for a U.S.-Saudi Split

A large post with portraits of current Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping (bottom center) and former leaders Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao is seen in Lhasa, China on May 6, 2020. 

With Xi at the helm for another five (if not 10) years, Beijing's grasp on society and the economy will only tighten -- threatening China's trajectory toward greater development and global leadership.

China's Future Looks Fraught as Xi Secures Another Term

Members of the public file past the coffin of Queen Elizabeth II at the Palace of Westminster on Sept. 16, 2022, in London, England. 

The United Kingdom's King Charles III will struggle to maintain his mother's legacy and keep the Commonwealth united, but the British monarchy remains intact -- for now.

What Comes Next for Britain's Third Carolean Age

The U.S. Biden administration is considering designating Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group as a foreign terrorist organization, Bloomberg reported Nov. 30.

Russia, U.S.: Washington Considers Labeling Wagner Group a Terrorist Organization

Former General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party Jiang Zemin, who led the country from 1989-2002, died of leukemia at 96 years old, Xinhua News Agency reported Nov. 30.

China: Former General Secretary's Death Creates New Potential for Civil Unrest

Kenya

Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga called for national rallies to defend four members of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) who the National Assembly is threatening to dismiss over their rejection of the August presidential election results that declared William Ruto the winner, The Africa Report reported Nov. 30.

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Rallies to Protest Electoral Commission Suspensions

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Justice granted registration to the Green Party, making it the first new party in almost two decades to receive permission to legally operate as a political entity, Eurasianet reported Nov. 30.

Kazakhstan: First New Political Party Registered in Nearly 20 Years

Eurostat data showed that eurozone headline inflation rates fell for the first time in 17 months, slowing to 10.0% in November from a record high of 10.6% in October, Bloomberg reported Nov. 30.

EU: Eurozone Inflation Falls in November for First Time in 17 Months

Peru

Peruvian opposition lawmakers presented their third impeachment motion against President Pedro Castillo on Nov. 29 due to his "moral incapacity" to continue in the position as a result of ongoing tax fraud investigations and Castillo's Cabinet appointments, La Republica reported Nov. 30.

Peru: Congress Opens Third Impeachment Inquiry Against President Castillo

Afghanistan

A Taliban fighter (L) frisks men at a checkpoint after a blast during Friday prayers Sept. 2, 2022, in Gazargah mosque in Herat. Foreign states' limited abilities to counter terrorist groups in Afghanistan may allow the extremist threat there to swell again.

Foreign states' limited abilities to counter terrorist groups in Afghanistan may allow the extremist threat there to swell again.

Why Terrorist Groups in Afghanistan Could Be Poised for a Resurgence

Burkina Faso

Mali

Nigeria

A British soldier leaves the Hombori area aboard a Chinook helicopter on March 28, 2019 during the start of the French Barkhane Force operation in Mali's Gourma region. Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

Countries in the region are embracing a military-led counterterrorism approach that will struggle in the face of various governance, economic and coordination challenges.

How Coastal West Africa Is Responding to an Expanding Jihadist Threat

Iraq

The federal government of Iraq will deploy military brigades to the border of Iraqi Kurdistan with Iran, according to a Nov. 28 statement by Sagvan Sindi, the deputy chairman of Iraq's security and defense parliamentary committee, Mehr News Agency reported Nov. 29.

Iraq, Iran: Baghdad to Deploy Forces to Iraqi Kurdistan to Ease Growing Border Tensions 

Canada's new premier of Alberta province, Danielle Smith, introduced the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, which would explicitly empower the province's legislature to refuse to enforce certain federal laws and regulations, Reuters reported Nov. 29.

Canada: Alberta Proposes Sovereignty Act in Challenge to Trudeau

Central African Republic

Chad

The Central African Republic (CAR) government threatened to seek reprisals after claiming an aircraft flew across the northern border from a neighboring country the night of Nov. 27-28 and bombed CAR troops and Russian paramilitary partners in the town of Bossangoa, Agence France-Presse reported Nov. 28.

Central African Republic: Government Claims Unnamed Border Nation Bombed Troops, Russian Partners

Pakistan

Pakistan’s Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) transferred $500 million to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) under program financing, Dawn reported Nov. 29.

Pakistan: Islamabad Receives $500 Million From Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Argentina's Shale Reach Exceeds Its Grasp

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, U.S.: Washington Considers Labeling Wagner Group a Terrorist Organization

China: Former General Secretary's Death Creates New Potential for Civil Unrest

Kenya: Opposition Leader Calls for Rallies to Protest Electoral Commission Suspensions

Kazakhstan: First New Political Party Registered in Nearly 20 Years

EU: Eurozone Inflation Falls in November for First Time in 17 Months

Peru: Congress Opens Third Impeachment Inquiry Against President Castillo

Iraq, Iran: Baghdad to Deploy Forces to Iraqi Kurdistan to Ease Growing Border Tensions

Canada: Alberta Proposes Sovereignty Act in Challenge to Trudeau

Central African Republic: Government Claims Unnamed Border Nation Bombed Troops, Russian Partners

Pakistan: Islamabad Receives $500 Million From Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support