Assessments

Ethiopia

Senegal

Turkey

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

Military & Security

Politics

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 12, 2024

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Chart of stock market investment trading on blue background.

Economics

Economic coercion is becoming more prevalent in international politics, with certain countries leveraging their economic power to pursue political goals. 

Economic Power in International Politics

Snapshots

Lebanon

Russia

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Ghana

South Korea

France

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Rebels patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city on Dec. 6, 2024. 

If and when al Assad's regime collapses, war-torn Syria will fragment into factional territories under a weakened rebel leadership.

What To Watch For as Syria's Government Barrels Toward Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Israel

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 5, 2024

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Latest

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Germany

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Ukraine

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Global Elections

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Columns

On Geopolitics

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

Cyber

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, would maintain the free movement of goods and people with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, Sahara Reporters reported on Dec. 12.

West Africa: ECOWAS To Maintain Free Trade With Sahelian Countries Despite Their Exit

Mozambique

Australian mining company Syrah Resources declared force majeure at its Balama graphite mine in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado region due to disruptions caused by widespread unrest in the southern African nation, Reuters reported Dec. 12. 

Mozambique: Australian Graphite Miner Declares Force Majeure Over Unrest

Venezuela

The Venezuelan government announced the release of 103 opposition protesters arrested at anti-government rallies contesting the July 28 presidential election, El Pais reported on Dec. 13.

Venezuela: Government Frees Some Political Prisoners Ahead of Maduro's Third Term

President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist Francois Bayrou as France's new prime minister, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 13. 

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

The incoming U.S. Trump administration is considering a spectrum of military options such as moving additional U.S. military assets to the Middle East, supplying additional advanced weapons that Israel could use against Iran's nuclear program, and even preemptive strikes against Iran's nuclear program, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 13.

U.S., Iran: Incoming Trump Administration Considering Military Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Program

An anti-Hezbollah newspaper in Lebanon, Nidaa al-Watan, said some of Syria's former al Assad government officials, including intelligence officers, fled to Lebanon thanks to support from Hezbollah, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 13.

Lebanon, Syria: Former al Assad Government Officials Reportedly Flee to Lebanon

Australia

Papua New Guinea

Under a $518 million sports deal, Australia will fund Papua New Guinea's team to play in Australia's National Rugby League as long as Papua New Guinea maintains Australia as its primary security partner, The Straits Times reported on Dec. 12.

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Canberra Finalizes Another Exclusive Security Deal With Pacific Islands

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol stood by his Dec. 3-4 declaration of martial law in a nationwide address, prompting the head of the ruling People Power Party to urge PPP lawmakers to support Yoon's impeachment, but PPP lawmakers elected a pro-Yoon party floor leader who stated the party's position was to oppose impeachment, Reuters reported on Dec. 12. 

South Korea: President's Speech, Opposition Criminal Charges Threaten Party Rifts

India

Russia's state-owned oil company Rosneft agreed to supply some 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day for 10 years to private Indian refiner Reliance, a deal worth around $13 billion a year based on current prices, Reuters reported on Dec. 12.

India, Russia: Countries Reach Largest Energy Deal Yet

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Canada is planning to raise security at the U.S.-Canada border to avoid 25% tariffs that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose on Canada in November over drug trafficking and illegal migration concerns, The New York Times reported on Dec. 11.

Canada: Trudeau Government Plans To Increase Border Security Measures To Avoid Trump's Tariffs

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

West Africa: ECOWAS To Maintain Free Trade With Sahelian Countries Despite Their Exit

Mozambique: Australian Graphite Miner Declares Force Majeure Over Unrest

Venezuela: Government Frees Some Political Prisoners Ahead of Maduro's Third Term

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

U.S., Iran: Incoming Trump Administration Considering Military Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Program

Lebanon, Syria: Former al Assad Government Officials Reportedly Flee to Lebanon

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Canberra Finalizes Another Exclusive Security Deal With Pacific Islands

South Korea: President's Speech, Opposition Criminal Charges Threaten Party Rifts

India, Russia: Countries Reach Largest Energy Deal Yet

Canada: Trudeau Government Plans To Increase Border Security Measures To Avoid Trump's Tariffs

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