Assessments

Brazil

United States

Iran

Israel

France

United Kingdom

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Economics

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Russia

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

Energy

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025

China

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025. 

Social Issues

New clarity over the 90-year-old spiritual leader's succession plans threatens to reignite Western criticism of China's treatment of Tibetans and revive reputational risks for Western businesses active in China.

Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West

U.S.-China Relations

Vietnam

Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.

The reduction in provincial- and commune-level units will initially create bureaucratic headaches, but if implemented effectively, the changes set the stage for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency, reduced corruption and improved investment conditions.

Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions

Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Without new supplies of U.S. Patriot interceptors and precision-guided munitions, Ukraine will struggle to defend against Russia's escalating aerial attacks, which could eventually force it into an unfavorable peace deal.

Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) speaks during a peace agreement signing ceremony between Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner (R) and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, D.C., on June 27, 2025. 

The peace agreement opens Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo up to significant economic opportunities, but disagreements over interpretation and continued proxy violence risk stalling the deal’s implementation.

A Fragile Peace Takes Shape Between Congo and Rwanda

Argentina

Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.

Despite recent progress, Argentina's economic and financial position remains vulnerable over the medium term.

The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Quarterly

Forecasts

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025. 

The deal reduces planned U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, but the lack of key details also introduces significant compliance uncertainty and investment risks that could ripple across Asian supply chains. 

The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iraq

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Syria

Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

South Africa

Japan

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

South Korea

Kazakhstan

On July 7, U.S. President Donald Trump published on Truth Social seven letters addressed to the leaders of South Korea, South Africa, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Kazakhstan and Laos informing them that the United States would begin implementing 25%-40% tariffs on their goods on Aug. 1, adding that the rate would double if the countries increased tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation.

U.S.: Trump Announces 25% to 40% Tariffs From Aug. 1 on Seven Trading Partners

Science & Technology

The United States plans to impose new restrictions on exports of advanced artificial intelligence chips to Malaysia and Thailand to curb suspected transshipment and smuggling to China, per a new draft rule, Bloomberg reported on July 4.

U.S., Malaysia, Thailand: Washington Targets Southeast Asia in AI Chip Export Crackdown

Ukraine's military intelligence claimed Russia sought to involve Laos in its war against Ukraine by deploying a unit of 50 Laotian military engineers to conduct demining operations in Russia's Kursk province, The Kyiv Independent reported on July 5. 

Laos, Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Intelligence Claims Laos Will Send Military Engineering Unit to Russia

Philippines

Japan plans to export six decommissioned Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippines to bolster Manila's maritime deterrence posture against China, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on July 6.

Japan, Philippines: Tokyo To Give Manila Destroyers

Taiwan

China unilaterally opened a third extension of the M503 flight route, just west of the Taiwan Strait's median line, an unofficial boundary between Taiwan and China, Reuters reported on July 6. 

China, Taiwan: Beijing Further Squeezes Taiwan Strait With Air Route Expansion

The United States will revoke its foreign terrorist organization designation on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, to further ease restrictions on the interim Syrian government, Reuters reported on July 7, citing a June 23 State Department memo. 

U.S., Syria: U.S. To Revoke HTS' Foreign Terrorist Organization Status

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Uganda

Cuba

Indonesia

Uzbekistan

Belarus

India

BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a July 6 interview on CNN that countries failing to reach a trade agreement with the United States could expect tariff rates to return to levels announced in April by Aug. 1.

U.S. Higher Tariffs To Take Effect on Aug. 1, Trump Threatens Tariffs on BRICS-Aligned Countries

Australia

A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

Pakistan

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

A Houthi spokesperson claimed responsibility for a July 6 maritime attack on a Liberian-flagged bulk carrier, marking the first maritime attack against commercial vessels that the Houthis conducted since December 2024, AP reported July 7.

Yemen: Houthis Claim Maritime Strike as Clashes with Israel Persist

Afghanistan

Russia's presidential envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, announced that Russia had officially recognized the Taliban-run Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, making it the first country in the world to do so, RIA Novosti reported on July 3.

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government 

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Trump Announces 25% to 40% Tariffs From Aug. 1 on Seven Trading Partners

U.S., Malaysia, Thailand: Washington Targets Southeast Asia in AI Chip Export Crackdown

Laos, Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Intelligence Claims Laos Will Send Military Engineering Unit to Russia

Japan, Philippines: Tokyo To Give Manila Destroyers

China, Taiwan: Beijing Further Squeezes Taiwan Strait With Air Route Expansion

U.S., Syria: U.S. To Revoke HTS' Foreign Terrorist Organization Status

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

U.S. Higher Tariffs To Take Effect on Aug. 1, Trump Threatens Tariffs on BRICS-Aligned Countries

Yemen: Houthis Claim Maritime Strike as Clashes with Israel Persist

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government

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