Assessments

United States

Turkey

Europe

Slovakia

Armenia

Azerbaijan

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Military & Security

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

El Salvador

Salvadoran security forces move a second group of 2,000 detainees overnight to the mega-prison Terrorist Confinement Center on March 15, 2023, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. 

Economics

Social Issues

El Salvador's successful state of emergency could convince other regional countries to attempt the same strategy, leading to safety, reputational and migratory risks.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 2

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 28, 2023

Colombia

Ecuador

Guatemala

Honduras

Peru

Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active. 

The success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in reducing the country's homicide rate will be hard to replicate, despite the efforts of nearby countries.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1

Snapshots

Spain

The prime minister's re-appointment would portend policy continuity and cordial ties between Madrid and Catalonia, but it'd also deepen the country's political polarization.

What Another Term Under Sanchez Would Mean for Spain

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Sudan

Togo

Uganda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

China

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Mali

Niger

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech during a press conference on the country's climate policies at the Downing Street Briefing Room in London on Sept. 20, 2023. 

Environment, Science & Technology

By weakening its climate commitments, London is making a risky political gamble that could also harm the U.K.'s business and investment climate.

The U.K. Government Walks Back on Key Climate Pledges

Quarterly

Forecasts

During the final quarter of 2023, the world will feel the impact of a global economy in transition as some of its pillars face headwinds and the war in Ukraine lingers.

2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Latest

Australia

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

New Zealand

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marapeand, the Cook Islands' Prime Minister Mark Brown, U.S. President Joe Biden and Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as part of the U.S.-PIF summit at the White House on Sept. 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Despite Washington's desire to strengthen ties with Pacific island nations, political constraints may leave a regional void that China is happy to fill.

Strategic Goals and Political Hurdles in the U.S. Play Tug-of-War Over the Pacific Islands

U.S.-China Relations

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico waits to meet the country's president in Bratislava on Oct. 2, 2023, following his Smer party's victory in Slovakia's Sept. 30 snap election. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Upcoming coalition talks will likely yield a more Eurosceptic government that could reduce the country's political and military aid to Kyiv.

What Slovakia's Election Results Mean for Its Political Future and Support for Ukraine

Maldives

India

 A commuter in Male, the Maldives, takes pictures of a decorated wall along a street ahead of the country's presidential election on Sept. 6, 2023.

The Sept. 30 presidential race will decipher whether New Delhi or Beijing has more influence over the strategic island nation in the Indian Ocean.

An Election Runoff Could Alter the Maldives' Balance Between China and India

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Japan

South Korea

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks at the opening ceremony of the International Forum for Trilateral Cooperation that commemorated the 20th anniversary of trilateral cooperation among China, South Korea and Japan, in Beijing, China, on May 10, 2019. 

A trilateral summit may increase economic cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, but their security interests continue to diverge.

China, Japan and South Korea Will Resume Trilateral Talks, but Diplomatic Hurdles Remain

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Canada

World Sikh Organization of Canada President Mukhbir Singh and National Council of Canadian Muslims CEO Stephen Brown speak during a press conference at the Canadian House of Commons in Ottawa on Sept. 19, 2023.

Recent allegations will raise tensions between Canada and India, leading to near-term security risks and possible tit-for-tat retaliation.

Canada-India Ties Take a Dive Following Ottawa's Allegations

Indonesia

Malaysia

Rare earth elements. Malaysia's recently announced plan to ban exports of rare earth elements is the latest example of the deepening regional trend of resource nationalism.

Malaysia's move will negatively impact its international partners in the sector, but give Malaysia a strategic advantage in the marketplace.

With a Rare Earth Ban, Malaysia Is Poised to Join the Regional Resource Nationalism Trend

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Kenya

Haiti

The U.N. Security Council approved a resolution authorizing the one-year deployment of a multinational force to Haiti to help the country combat gang violence, The New York Times reported on Oct. 2.

Haiti: U.N. Security Council Approves Deployment of Multinational Force to Haiti

The Maldives' opposition presidential candidate Mohamed Muizzu beat incumbent candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in a runoff election, Al Jazeera reported on Sept. 30.

Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu Wins Presidential Election

Officials from the Attorney General's office conducted another raid on Guatemala's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) facilities, leading officers to briefly scuffle with judges who attempted to physically prevent the officers from taking materials, AP reported on Sept. 30.

Guatemala: Police Scuffle With Judges During New Raid

Serbia

Kosovo

Serbia reduced the overall number of troops stationed near its border with Kosovo from 8,350 to 4,500, and Serbia's army chief Gen. Milan Mojsilovic said the country has not "raised the level of readiness," Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Scales Back Military Presence at Border With Kosovo

Burkina Faso's junta leader, Ibrahim Traore, said elections in Burkina Faso "are not a priority" compared with security, DW reported on Sept. 30.

Burkina Faso: Junta Says Elections 'Are Not a Priority'

The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Sept. 30 that lasts through Nov. 17 but does not include funding for military aid for Ukraine, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Ukraine, U.S.: Stopgap Funding Bill Excludes Ukraine Funding

Congolese opposition leader Martin Fayulu confirmed that he will run in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's December presidential election, Reuters reported on Sept. 30.

Congo: Opposition Leader Fayulu Confirms Presidential Run

EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis speaks March 16, 2023, in Brussels.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, China-Japan-South Korea Talks

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

Energy

Saudi Arabia's Finance Ministry rewrote its budget forecast to expect a deficit in 2024-25, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 1.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Projects Budget Deficit in 2024 as State Spending Increases

Iraq

An attack by the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) near Turkey's National Assembly building in Ankara prompted a series of Turkish airstrikes on up to 20 PKK sites in northern Iraq on Oct. 1, Hurriyet Daily News reported the next day.

Turkey: A PKK Attack in Ankara Sparks Retaliatory Airstrikes in Iraq

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby announced Sept. 29 that the United States is monitoring an "unprecedented" deployment of Serbian troops, artillery and tanks along the border with Kosovo.

Kosovo: Serbia Reportedly Deploys Large Military Contingent Toward Kosovo Border

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

What Slovakia's Election Results Mean for Its Political Future and Support for Ukraine

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Haiti: U.N. Security Council Approves Deployment of Multinational Force to Haiti

Maldives: Mohamed Muizzu Wins Presidential Election

Guatemala: Police Scuffle With Judges During New Raid

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Scales Back Military Presence at Border With Kosovo

Burkina Faso: Junta Says Elections 'Are Not a Priority'

Ukraine, U.S.: Stopgap Funding Bill Excludes Ukraine Funding

Congo: Opposition Leader Fayulu Confirms Presidential Run

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Projects Budget Deficit in 2024 as State Spending Increases

Turkey: A PKK Attack in Ankara Sparks Retaliatory Airstrikes in Iraq

Kosovo: Serbia Reportedly Deploys Large Military Contingent Toward Kosovo Border

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