Quarterly

Forecasts

During the final quarter of 2023, the world will feel the impact of a global economy in transition as some of its pillars face headwinds and the war in Ukraine lingers.

2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Assessments

United States

China

Japan

Marshall Islands

Solomon Islands

South Korea

Europe

Maldives

EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis speaks March 16, 2023, in Brussels.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, China-Japan-South Korea Talks

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 21, 2023

Labor union members from the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions participate in a rally in protest of the government's labor policies on May 31, 2023, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Yoon's anti-union policies may lead to political and economic gains, but unrest may also rise.

The Risks and Rewards of Yoon's Anti-Union Stance in South Korea

Snapshots

Canada

India

World Sikh Organization of Canada President Mukhbir Singh and National Council of Canadian Muslims CEO Stephen Brown speak during a press conference at the Canadian House of Commons in Ottawa on Sept. 19, 2023.

Military & Security

Recent allegations will raise tensions between Canada and India, leading to near-term security risks and possible tit-for-tat retaliation.

Canada-India Ties Take a Dive Following Ottawa's Allegations

Russia

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov attends a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations on May 19, 2023, in Pyatigorsk, Stavropol Krai region, Russia. Reports of the deteriorating health of Kadyrov carry acute and chronic risks for the region's stability.

The prospect of the long-time leader of Chechnya no longer being the region’s formal head carries acute and chronic risks for the region's stability, though not along the lines of the 1990s.

Rumors of Kadyrov's Ill Health Raise Questions About Chechnya's Future

Benin

Burkina Faso

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Togo

France

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Rare earth elements. Malaysia's recently announced plan to ban exports of rare earth elements is the latest example of the deepening regional trend of resource nationalism.

Malaysia's move will negatively impact its international partners in the sector, but give Malaysia a strategic advantage in the marketplace.

With a Rare Earth Ban, Malaysia Is Poised to Join the Regional Resource Nationalism Trend

Asia-Pacific

A 3D rendering of the European Union's flag and a gas valve on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.

Energy

Despite high storage and lower demand, European natural gas prices will remain vulnerable to market shocks as the winter heating season begins.

Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Ukraine

A door at the U.N. headquarters Sept. 15, 2023, in New York ahead of the 78th session of the General Assembly. The 78th U.N. General Assembly will occur Sept. 18-26 against a backdrop of deepening global divisions.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The U.N. General Assembly, Zelensky's U.S. Visit

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (center) attends an executive meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 13, 2023, ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.

Japan's Cabinet reshuffle may facilitate new stimulus and improve the ruling party's popularity, but hard economic challenges loom.

In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election

Latest

Turkey

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks at the opening ceremony of the International Forum for Trilateral Cooperation that commemorated the 20th anniversary of trilateral cooperation among China, South Korea and Japan, in Beijing, China, on May 10, 2019. 

A trilateral summit may increase economic cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, but their security interests continue to diverge.

China, Japan and South Korea Will Resume Trilateral Talks, but Diplomatic Hurdles Remain

U.S.-China Relations

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

A member of the Red Crescent shows bags of flour on Aug. 30, 2023, in Aghdam, Azerbaijan. 

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to remain high, although a return to large-scale war remains unlikely. 

Azerbaijan Maintains the Upper Hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Guatemala

Police officers remain at the entrance of the Electoral Process Operations Center during government raids in Guatemala City on Sept. 12, 2023.

If political elites overturn Guatemala's election results, unrest and weaker relations with international partners will follow.

More Raids Threaten to Undermine Guatemala's Democracy

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

Environment, Science & Technology

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

Social Issues

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

Kenya

Haiti

In a speech at the U.N. General Assembly, Kenyan President William Ruto called on the U.N. Security Council to formally back a security support mission to Haiti, Reuters reported on Sept. 21.

Haiti: Kenyan President Calls U.N. to Approve Security Deployment to Haiti

Cyber

Cyber insurance claims rose in the first half of 2023, spurred by increasingly costly and severe ransomware attacks, according to a report published on Sept. 20 by U.S. insurance provider Coalition.

Cyberspace: Ransomware Continues to Push Cyber Insurance Claims Higher

Laos

Laos' public and publicly guaranteed debt stands at 123% of gross domestic product per the International Monetary Fund, Nikkei Asia reported on Sept. 22.

Laos: Critical Debt Level Drives Loss of Sovereignty Fears

Australia

The alliance of Australian labor unions representing striking workers at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities agreed to return to work after several weeks of various work stoppages, Reuters reported on Sept. 22. 

Australia: Chevron LNG Workers End Strike

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 14, 2023

Vietnam

UAW members striking Oct. 25, 2019, outside the GM Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant in Detroit. With the United Auto Workers' labor contract with Detroit's Big Three automakers expiring at 11:59 p.m. on Sept. 14, 2023, labor negotiations remain turbulent.

The Weekly Rundown: LNG Strikes in Australia, Biden Visits Vietnam

On Security

Middle East and North Africa

Members of Syria's top jihadist group, the al Quada-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, parade through the city of Idlib on Aug. 20, 2021, in celebration of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.

The deprioritization of global counterterrorism efforts could create opportunities for al Qaeda and the Islamic State if they can overcome their divisions and clearly define an enemy.

The Future of Jihadism in a Multipolar World

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. President Joe Biden, congressional leaders and other high-ranking officials during his trip to Washington, The Washington Post reported on Sept. 22.

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky's Trip to Washington Secures Greater U.S. Support for Ukraine

Italy

Italy held the first meeting of the National Platform for Sustainable Nuclear Energy, a government initiative aimed at coordinating companies and institutions across the Italian nuclear industry's value chain in areas such as safety, radioprotection and waste, which set out to define a timeframe for the possible resumption on nuclear energy production in the country, Italian press agency ANSA reported on Sept. 21.

Italy: Government Will Present Roadmap For Possible Return to Nuclear Power

Jimmy "Barbecue" Cherizier, leader of the G9 gang (Haiti’s most powerful criminal organization) on Sept. 19 said the gang would launch an armed fight to overthrow Prime Minister Ariel Henry, Reuters reported on Sept. 20.

Haiti: Leader of Most Powerful Gang Threatens to Overthrow Prime Minister

India's lower house of Parliament approved the women's reservation bill, which reserves a third of the seats in the lower house and state assemblies for women, AP reported on Sept. 20. 

India: Lower House Approves Women's Reservation Bill

Pakistan

The Election Commission of Pakistan announced that parliamentary elections will be held in the last week of January 2024, AP reported on Sept.  21.

Pakistan: Elections Scheduled for Last Week of January 2024

South Korea's National Assembly voted 149-136 to waive arrest immunity for Lee Jae-myung -- the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party (DPK), which holds a majority in the legislature -- amid ongoing corruption investigations into Lee, Radio Free Asia reported on Sept. 21.

South Korea: Arrest Waiver for Opposition Leader to Deepen Policy Divides

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

China, Japan and South Korea Will Resume Trilateral Talks, but Diplomatic Hurdles Remain

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Haiti: Kenyan President Calls U.N. to Approve Security Deployment to Haiti

Cyberspace: Ransomware Continues to Push Cyber Insurance Claims Higher

Laos: Critical Debt Level Drives Loss of Sovereignty Fears

Australia: Chevron LNG Workers End Strike

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky's Trip to Washington Secures Greater U.S. Support for Ukraine

Italy: Government Will Present Roadmap For Possible Return to Nuclear Power

Haiti: Leader of Most Powerful Gang Threatens to Overthrow Prime Minister

India: Lower House Approves Women's Reservation Bill

Pakistan: Elections Scheduled for Last Week of January 2024

South Korea: Arrest Waiver for Opposition Leader to Deepen Policy Divides

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