Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 5, 2024

Snapshots

France

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

Economics

Politics

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Syria

Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024. 

Military & Security

The resurgence of Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria will escalate the 13-year war and could eventually destabilize the al-Assad government by exacerbating its myriad economic and security challenges.

Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo

Angola

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tanzania

Zambia

China

Marshall Islands

Palau

Taiwan

Tuvalu

Sri Lanka

U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Japan

South Korea

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024

Lebanon

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Philippines

(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 

A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.

The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts

Latest

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Iraq

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Turkey

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

People gather in front of the main gate of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on Dec. 4, 2024, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law. 

The president's brief gambit will likely stall his agenda and eventually lead to his departure, giving rise to an opposition more skeptical of U.S. and Japanese defense ties.

South Korea's Yoon Quickly Scraps Martial Law Order, but the Political Damage Has Been Done

Ghana

A voter casts their ballot in a voting booth in Ghana in June 2020.

An opposition victory would likely see the new government prioritize boosting the manufacturing sector and easing fiscal consolidation, while a ruling party victory would raise the risk of post-election violence.

Previewing Ghana's General Elections

Global Elections

Romania

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Europe

Austria

Russia

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Ukraine

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

U.S.-Iran Relations

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024.

While Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.

Japan's PM Ishiba Survives To Struggle Another Day

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

Cyber

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Myanmar

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, one of Myanmar's belligerent ethnic armed organizations, announced a unilateral ceasefire in its armed conflict with the country's governing junta and will pursue more formal peace talks, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Dec. 5.

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

Colombia

Ricardo Bonilla resigned from his post as finance minister at Colombian President Gustavo Petro's request amid an ongoing corruption investigation into the alleged irregular allocation of funds from the National Disaster Risk Management Unit, or UNGRD, and Petro announced finance vice minister Diego Guevara as a replacement, El Colombiano reported Dec. 4.

Colombia: Deepening Corruption Scandal To Weaken President Petro

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that the United States would provide an additional $600 million in financing to support the development of the Lobito Corridor, which will connect Zambia's Copperbelt to the Atlantic Ocean, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 4.

U.S., Africa: Biden Confirms $600M in New Financing for Lobito Corridor

Ethiopia

The government of the Oromia region announced that militants from the Oromo Liberation Army, or OLA, had begun entering designated camps as part of a Dec. 1 peace deal signed between the Ethiopian government and an OLA faction led by Sagni Nagasa, Addis Ababa reported on Dec. 4.

Ethiopia: OLA Faction Begins To Disarm Following Peace Deal With Government

Syria's army said it was withdrawing from Hama to avoid civilian casualties after Turkey-backed Hayat Tahir al-Sham rebels entered the central city, AP reported on Dec. 5. 

Syria: Key Provincial Capital Falls to Rebels in Another Major Setback for al Assad

Ousted French Prime Minister Michel Barnier formally presented his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron a day after his government lost a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly on Dec. 4, France 24 reported on Dec. 5.

France: Barnier Formally Resigns as Macron Looks for a Replacement

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Venezuela

Algeria

Kuwait

Libya

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

China's foreign ministry announced on Dec. 5 that it was adding 13 companies to its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law (AFSL) Countermeasures List for their role in supporting U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, noting that their assets in China will be frozen and barring Chinese entities from conducting business with them, Reuters reported Dec. 5.

China: Sanctioning of U.S. Arms Companies Shows Changing Retaliatory Tools

Steve Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's incoming special envoy to the Middle East, held discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani separately in late November in a push for a Gaza ceasefire ahead of Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, Reuters reported Dec. 4.

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

Germany

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government lost a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, with 331 lawmakers voting in favor of a motion presented by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 4.

France: Parliament Topples Minority Government in No-Confidence Vote

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

Colombia: Deepening Corruption Scandal To Weaken President Petro

U.S., Africa: Biden Confirms $600M in New Financing for Lobito Corridor

Ethiopia: OLA Faction Begins To Disarm Following Peace Deal With Government

Syria: Key Provincial Capital Falls to Rebels in Another Major Setback for al Assad

France: Barnier Formally Resigns as Macron Looks for a Replacement

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

China: Sanctioning of U.S. Arms Companies Shows Changing Retaliatory Tools

U.S., Israel, Qatar, Palestinian Territories: Incoming Trump Middle East Envoy Pushes for Gaza Ceasefire

France: Parliament Topples Minority Government in No-Confidence Vote

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