Assessments

Belize

Guatemala

United States

Israel

Turkey

China

France

Russia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) at a weekly Cabinet meeting Feb. 19, 2023, in Jerusalem.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel's Cabinet Votes on a National Guard, Von der Leyen and Macron Visit China

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Ukraine

Podcasts

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

What does Xi's visit to Russia say about the trajectory of Russia-China relations?

Essential Geopolitics: China's Growing Russia-Ukraine Involvement

Economics

What has been causing the recent global financial volatility, and what's next for the rest of 2023?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for the Global Economy

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 30, 2023

Europe

An SVB Private ATM outside of a Silicon Valley Bank branch March 20, 2023, in Santa Monica, California. Investor sentiment remains fragile and financial sector risks remain, so central banks may need to ease up on, or even reverse, monetary tightening in 2023.

Investor sentiment remains fragile and financial sector risks remain, so central banks may need to ease up on, or even reverse, monetary tightening in 2023.

Banking Sector Fragility Will Lead Central Banks to Ease Up on Monetary Tightening

Iraq

A worker surveys a stack of empty oil drums as he brings another to add to it at a warehouse in Baghdad, Iraq, on Jan. 6, 2004.

Energy

An arbitration court's ruling will give Iraq's federal government significant leverage over the Kurdistan Regional Government's future oil policy.

Baghdad Wins the Tug-of-War Over Kurdish Oil. What's Next?

Snapshots

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro (center) presents his government's pension reform bill to lawmakers in Congress in Bogota, Colombia, on March 22, 2023. 

Social Issues

President Petro's proposed healthcare, pension and labor reforms could improve the lives of poorer Colombians, though it may come at the expense of private investment.

Colombia's Leftist Government Embarks on an Ambitious Reform Push

Visitors walk past a metaverse stand during Fintech Week 2022 in Hong Kong on Nov. 1, 2022. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Virtual worlds will become new fields of geopolitical competition as governments increasingly weaponize the metaverse for their diverging strategic interests.

The Future of the Metaverse, Part 2

A mounted policeman stands guard during a March 27, 2023, protest in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Despite the delay, Netanyahu’s coalition is unlikely to abandon its push to overhaul the country’s court system, which will push opposition forces to maintain mass unrest that could spark violence.

Amid Protests, Israel's Government Pauses Its Judicial Reforms. What Now?

Taiwan

Spain

Riot police walk past a street fire during violent clashes over the government's reform of the pension system March 23, 2023, in Paris. As protests against French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to approve a controversial pensions reform without a vote in the National Assembly continue, the country's main trade unions will hold a general strike March 28. 

The Weekly Rundown: Spain's Prime Minister in China, Anti-Government Protests in France

Protesters gather on Place de la Bastille in Paris, France, on March 23, 2023, to attend a demonstration a week after the government pushed a pension reform through Parliament without a vote.

With two no-confidence votes and seven straight days of rallies, the backlash against President Macron's pension reform bodes ill for the stability of not only his government, but its successors.

In France, Ongoing Pension Protests Underscore the Risk of Recurring Political Instability

Latest

Italy

A red prohibition sign is superimposed over the word "ChatGPT" against a green background.

Western regulations against generative AI tools like ChatGPT may moderately slow the industry, but ongoing investor interest means these technologies will continue to develop.

Western Regulators Take Aim at ChatGPT

Thailand

Thai flags March 4, 2023, on the side of the parliament complex in Bangkok. Thailand is headed for early elections that favor continued military-backed rule, but a resurgent opposition portends a highly contentious election process, potential unrest, and implications for alignment between China and the United States.

Thailand is headed for early elections that favor continued military-backed rule, but a resurgent opposition portends a highly contentious election process and potential unrest.

Thailand Braces for Potential Chaos as Early Elections Loom

Japan

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) attend a joint news conference at the prime minister's official residence on March 16, 2023, in Tokyo, Japan. 

The recent thaw in relations could see Seoul and Tokyo deepen their economic and security cooperation in the coming months, but wartime grievances will impose an upper limit on cooperation.

A Historic Summit Bodes Well for Japan-South Korea Rapprochement -- For Now

Sri Lanka

Supporters of the opposition National Peoples Power (NPP) take part in a protest in Colombo, Sri Lanka, to urge the government to hold local elections as scheduled on Feb. 26, 2023. 

The delayed ballot will offer a key glimpse into the country's political climate since last year's mass protests, and could weaken its new government's ability to enact IMF-mandated reforms.

The Significance of Sri Lanka's Upcoming Local Elections

Transmission towers are seen in Antwerp, Belgium, on Feb. 7, 2023.

The proposal seeks to reduce energy price shocks for European consumers and boost investments in renewables, while avoiding major overhauls that could disrupt the bloc's market.

A Look at the EU's Proposed Electricity Market Reform

A protestor holds a placard that reads ''Empty Fridge Equals Violence of Dispair'' near a pile of burning trash during a demonstration in Paris, France, against the government's proposed pension reform on March 11, 2023. 

The French president's move to circumvent the National Assembly will limit his government's ability to enact future reforms and raise the risk of more disruptive protests.

Macron Forces Through His Pension Reform. But at What Cost?

People seeking to retrieve their funds from the failed Silicon Valley Bank line up outside of the bank's offices in Santa Clara, California, on March 13, 2023.

Silicon Valley Bank's demise bodes ill for other mid-sized banks that took on excessive risks when interest rates were low. But the greater systematic impact should be manageable.

Assessing the Risk of a U.S. Financial Crisis Following the SVB Collapse

Sweden

Romania

Austria

The Romanian and EU flags are seen at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium in February 2017.

Pushback from other EU members is impeding Bucharest's bid to join the passport-free zone, which would have both economic and political consequences for the country.

The Risks of Romania's Protracted Accession to the EU's Schengen Area

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

A Chinese battle tank competes in a tank biathlon event held by the Russian military on Aug. 27, 2022, outside of Moscow, Russia. 

The U.S. claims Beijing is ''strongly considering'' providing Moscow lethal aid in Ukraine -- a move that would have sweeping consequences for not only the war, but China's development and its relations with the West.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 1

A hand holds a virtual circuitry-inspired display that represents ChatGPT.

Generative artificial intelligence tools will revolutionize job markets around the world by increasing automation and facilitating the creation of entirely new industries.

The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs

Saudi Arabia

(From left) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, then-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa pose for a photo during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. 

With the end of the U.S.-led unipolar world, nationalist ideologies have the freedom to evolve into more complex belief systems, presenting new challenges and opportunities for geopolitical forecasters.

The Effects of Modern Ideology on Forecasting and Analysis

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference center in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 21, 2023. 

Over the past year, the Ukraine invasion has morphed into a costly and prolonged war that reflects Putin and his allies' perception of the world and Russia's place in it.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, One Year On

People walk on a pedestrian bridge that displays the numbers for the Shanghai Shenzhen stock indexes on Oct. 10, 2022, in Shanghai, China. 

Certain economic fundamentals will have outsized impacts on whether the Asian giant can escape the middle-income trap in the face of mounting systematic and demographic challenges.

China's Inflexible Financial System Amid a Declining Population

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new concept for Russia's foreign policy that claims an "era of revolutionary changes" is under way in international relations, Bloomberg reported on March 31.

Russia: Putin Approves New Foreign Policy Concept

China's official purchasing managers index numbers for March showed a drop in the manufacturing PMI from 52.6 in February to 51.9 in March, but the non-manufacturing PMI hit a 12-year high at 58.2, Reuters reported on March 31.

China: Business and Construction Recover as Manufacturing Lags

Pakistan

Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar said China rolled over a $2 billion loan that matured on March 23, Dawn reported on March 31.

Pakistan: China Rolls Over $2 Billion Loan

Japan will start restricting some sales of 23 products, mostly equipment for making semiconductors with circuit widths of 14 nanometers or less, in July, Asahi Shimbun reported on March 31.

Japan: Chip Restrictions Will Slow China's Advanced Industrial Development

Indonesia

International soccer governing body FIFA stripped Indonesia of all rights to host the Under-20 World Cup championship after local protests led the country's soccer authority to cancel an Israeli match and two governors on Borneo called to ban the national team entirely, Al Jazeera reported on March 29.

Indonesia, Israel: FIFA Pulls Indonesia's Hosting Rights Over Refusal to Host Israeli Team

United Arab Emirates

The director of the Crossroads of Civilizations Museum in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, shows visitors around the facility’s Holocaust Gallery on Jan. 11, 2023.

The many foreigners enrolled in Emirati schools will bring home new ideas about human rights that could eventually inspire political movements in countries like Egypt and Pakistan.

The Global Impact of the UAE Teaching the Holocaust in Schools

Ecuador

Venezuela

Syria

North Korea

Belgium

Netherlands

Seized marijuana bricks are incinerated in Guadalajara, Mexico.

While narco-states exist on a spectrum of severity, they can all have dramatic geopolitical, operational and tactical impacts that raise a wide variety of risks.

What Is a Narco-State, and Why Does It Matter?

Nigeria

The Department of State Services (DSS), Nigeria's primary internal security agency, issued a statement warning of a plot among Nigeria's political class to set up an interim government to disrupt the transition of power to President-elect Bola Tinubu on May 29, Voice of America reported March 30.

Nigeria: DSS Issues Warning of Plot to Disrupt Tinubu's Inauguration

Finland

Turkey's National Assembly ratified Finland's ascension to NATO on March 30 in the final political hurdle for Helsinki joining the alliance, Reuters reported the next day.

Turkey, Finland: Ankara Approves Helsinki's NATO Membership

Myanmar

India

India's northern state of Manipur that borders Myanmar has decided to build camps to house Myanmar refugees, Radio Free Asia reported on March 29.

India: Manipur to Build Camps For Myanmar Refugees

Kenya

Hundreds of Kenyan opposition protesters led by opposition leader Raila Odinga took to the streets in multiple cities for the third mass demonstration in two weeks, leading to violent clashes with police in the capital Nairobi, Reuters reported on March 30.

Kenya: Opposition Protests Persist, Prolonging Risks of Violent Unrest

The European Union is working on the development of "new defensive tools" to screen exports of dual-use technology from EU companies in sectors such as quantum computing, robotics, artificial intelligence and biotech to the bloc's "systemic rivals," including China, the Financial Times reported on March 30.

EU: Brussels Calls for Tighter Export Controls on Technology Exports to China

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Iran

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Western Regulators Take Aim at ChatGPT

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: Putin Approves New Foreign Policy Concept

China: Business and Construction Recover as Manufacturing Lags

Pakistan: China Rolls Over $2 Billion Loan

Japan: Chip Restrictions Will Slow China's Advanced Industrial Development

Indonesia, Israel: FIFA Pulls Indonesia's Hosting Rights Over Refusal to Host Israeli Team

Nigeria: DSS Issues Warning of Plot to Disrupt Tinubu's Inauguration

Turkey, Finland: Ankara Approves Helsinki's NATO Membership

India: Manipur to Build Camps For Myanmar Refugees

Kenya: Opposition Protests Persist, Prolonging Risks of Violent Unrest

EU: Brussels Calls for Tighter Export Controls on Technology Exports to China

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