Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 12, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Snapshots

Sub-Saharan Africa

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

Economics

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Iran

Iraq

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mexico

Algeria

Italy

The Mexican Senate building in December 2019 in Mexico City. The Mexican Senate will begin considering a controversial judicial reform Sept. 8 that it plans to vote on by Sept. 11.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Judicial Reform in Mexico, An EU Competitiveness Report

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Netherlands

Environment, Science & Technology

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

U.S.-China Relations

Lebanon

Syria

Yemen

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

France

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Kenya

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 5, 2024

An Aug. 29 Israeli military operation in Tulkarm in the northern West Bank. In the coming months, wide-scale Israeli military operations and expanding settlements in the West Bank will further weaken the Palestinian Authority and put the territory at greater risk of uprising.

In the coming months, wide-scale Israeli military operations and expanding settlements in the West Bank will further weaken the Palestinian Authority and put the territory at greater risk of uprising. 

Will Israel Face a Third Intifada in the West Bank?

Latest

Europe

A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.

Cyber

In the first of this two-part series, we explore Iran's attempts to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election and heighten anti-Israel sentiments via online influence campaigns and cyberattacks.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

Ukraine

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Germany

United Kingdom

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Social Issues

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Thailand

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio on Aug. 14 in Tokyo. The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

In Japan, Kishida's Resignation Will Bring a New Face to the Same Old LDP

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Chinese Premier Li Qiang on Sept. 11-12 visited Saudi Arabia, where he met with Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem al-Budaiwi and discussed expansions in tech, trade and energy cooperation. According to Chinese state media, al-Budaiwi said ''an agreement on the China-GCC Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible'' is expected. 

China, GCC: China, Gulf States Seek Trade Agreement Progress 'As Soon As Possible'

Turkmenistan

Afghanistan

Afghanistan and Turkmenistan resumed work on the long-delayed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline, as Afghanistan and Turkmenistan work on bolstering bilateral ties, Voice of America reported Sept. 12.

Afghanistan, Turkmenistan: Work on Long-Delayed Regional Natural Gas Pipeline Resumes

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West: Part 1

Argentina

Argentina's lower house of Congress failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to override President Javier Milei's veto of a bill that would have increased pensions, La Nacion reported Sept. 11.

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

Vietnam

India will implement tariffs ranging from 12% to 30% on certain steel products imported from China and Vietnam, Reuters reported Sept. 11, citing a directive from the Indian Ministry of Finance.

India: Country to Impose Tariffs From 12% to 30% on Select Steel Imports From China, Vietnam

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra issued a policy statement marking the official start of her government in which she laid out her Pheu Thai Party's vision, including a restructuring of the party's flagship digital wallet program and investing in infrastructure, The Bangkok Post reported Sept. 12.

Thailand: New Prime Minister Lays Out Policy Agenda Amid Early Efforts for Another Ouster

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Alliance for the Congo River (AFC) armed group is seeking to expand its military activity in Congo's southern Katanga region, Jeune Afrique reported Sept. 11, citing interviews with several AFC figureheads.

Congo: AFC Rebels Seeking to Expand in Cobalt-Rich Katanga Region

Hungary

Hungary is seeking to deploy 200 troops to Chad, Deutsche Welle reported Sept. 11.

Chad, Hungary: Budapest Planning Deployment of 200 Troops to Chad

U.S. President Joe Biden will discuss relaxing restrictions on strikes inside Russia when he meets U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer Sept. 13, Bloomberg reported Sept. 12. 

U.S., U.K., Russia, Ukraine: U.S. and U.K. Preparing to Relax Restrictions on Strikes Inside Russia

Science & Technology

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Israeli forces reportedly carried out a ground raid on an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC)-related facility in Masyaf in central Syria on Sept. 8, according to Times of Israel on Sept. 12. 

Israel, Syria: Isreali Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

Mexican senators approved a constitutional judicial reform that will restructure the country's judicial branch, including providing for the election of judges by popular vote, El Pais reported Sept. 11.

Mexico: Senate Approves Judicial Reform Despite Protesters Storming Building

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, GCC: China, Gulf States Seek Trade Agreement Progress 'As Soon As Possible'

Afghanistan, Turkmenistan: Work on Long-Delayed Regional Natural Gas Pipeline Resumes

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

India: Country to Impose Tariffs From 12% to 30% on Select Steel Imports From China, Vietnam

Thailand: New Prime Minister Lays Out Policy Agenda Amid Early Efforts for Another Ouster

Congo: AFC Rebels Seeking to Expand in Cobalt-Rich Katanga Region

Chad, Hungary: Budapest Planning Deployment of 200 Troops to Chad

U.S., U.K., Russia, Ukraine: U.S. and U.K. Preparing to Relax Restrictions on Strikes Inside Russia

Israel, Syria: Isreali Ground Troops Used in Raid on IRGC Site

Mexico: Senate Approves Judicial Reform Despite Protesters Storming Building

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support