Assessments

United States

Economics

Politics

Trump's fiscal, deregulation and trade policies may initially boost U.S. economic growth, but potentially to the detriment of the rest of the world.

What To Expect From Trump's Economic Policies

Mozambique

Mexico

China

South Korea

United Kingdom

Security personnel walk on a road with buses blocking an entrance gate to protect impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from a possible second arrest in Seoul on Jan. 6. If Yoon is not arrested, the opposition could again seek to impeach the country's acting president due to his insufficient support for the arrest efforts, worsening foreign perceptions of political instability in South Korea.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

Military & Security

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Germany

Ukraine

Russia

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Egypt

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters is seen on March 27, 2020, in Washington, D.C. 

The partial privatization of state- and military-owned assets will increase Egypt's foreign currency reserves, but it will likely only somewhat boost productivity and business competition.

IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt's Privatization Efforts

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 9, 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta, Guinea's President Alpha Conde, US President Donald Trump, African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina, Vice President of Nigeria Yemi Osinbajo and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn pose on May 27, 2017 in Taormina, Sicily.

The Trump administration's more zero-sum approach to countering Chinese influence in Africa may find some success but risks alienating several African states, potentially enabling China to strengthen its foothold.

What to Expect From Trump 2.0's Approach to Africa

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Media

Japan

Podcasts

How do demographic trends impact military power?

Applied Geopolitics: Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of Troops in Conflict

The Port of Houston Authority is seen during a strike among members of the International Longshoreman's Association on Oct. 1, 2024, in Houston, Texas. 

A dispute over port automation, along with the impending transition from Biden to Trump, will hinder progress in newly resumed talks between U.S. longshoremen and their employers, creating the risk of a highly disruptive strike.

The U.S. Braces for Another, Likely More Disruptive, Port Strike

Latest

Palestinian Territories

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

While it may de-escalate the current war, the deal does not address all drivers of conflict between Hamas and Israel, nor does it outline a post-war strategy for Gaza, portending a gradual return to violence.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Snapshots

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Lebanon

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

U.S.-China Relations

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

After returning from a trip to Moscow, the president of Moldova's separatist-controlled breakaway region of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, told reporters he had negotiated a resumption of gas supplies with Russian energy officials, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

Malaysia and the European Union will likely reopen suspended free trade agreement negotiations when Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim visits Brussels, Belgium, the week of Jan. 20, Politico reported on Jan. 15. 

EU, Malaysia: Dormant Free Trade Negotiations Likely To Resume

The World Bank committed $20 billion to Pakistan through a 10-year Country Partnership Framework aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable development, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

Argentina's central bank announced it will slow the rate of the country's peso devaluation to 1% a month starting in February, from the current pace of 2%, after monthly inflation stayed below 3% for the third consecutive month in December 2024, El Pais reported on Jan. 14.  

Argentina: Government Progresses Macroeconomic Normalization, Likely Improving Business Conditions

Kenya and the United Arab Emirates signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement during a visit by Kenyan President William Ruto to the United Arab Emirates, The Eastleigh Voice reported on Jan. 15.

Kenya: Ruto Signs Economic Partnership With UAE, Seeks Emirati Investments for Railway Expansion

Daniel Chapo, the presidential candidate for Mozambique's ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique party, better known as Frelimo, was sworn in, Reuters reported on Jan. 15. 

Mozambique: Frelimo's Daniel Chapo Inaugurated President

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced during his inaugural policy speech in the National Assembly that he would "renegotiate" President Emmanuel Macron's contentious pension reform with labor unions and opposition parties in the coming months, but he stated the pension law would continue to apply in its current form without an agreement, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

Police and anti-corruption investigators arrested South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol at his residence on the morning of Jan. 15 on suspicion of committing an insurrection during his Dec. 3-4 martial law declaration, KBS reported the same day. 

South Korea: President Yoon Arrested as Political Grandstanding Continues

Science & Technology

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani inked a 12.3 billion pound, roughly $15 billion, trade and investment deal as the two countries seek to reset ties, a bilateral security deal and discussed the return of irregular migrants to Iraq, Reuters reported Jan. 14. 

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

Cuba

The Biden administration notified Congress of its intent to lift the U.S. designation of Cuba as a state sponsor of terrorism as part of a deal the Catholic Church facilitated and that includes Havana freeing 553 political prisoners by Jan. 20, Reuters reported Jan. 15.

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Congress Under Trump Unlikely to Confirm Biden's Removal of Cuba From Terrorist List  

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

EU, Malaysia: Dormant Free Trade Negotiations Likely To Resume

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

Argentina: Government Progresses Macroeconomic Normalization, Likely Improving Business Conditions

Kenya: Ruto Signs Economic Partnership With UAE, Seeks Emirati Investments for Railway Expansion

Mozambique: Frelimo's Daniel Chapo Inaugurated President

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

South Korea: President Yoon Arrested as Political Grandstanding Continues

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

U.S., Cuba: U.S. Congress Under Trump Unlikely to Confirm Biden's Removal of Cuba From Terrorist List

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