Assessments

Ghana

Iran

Syria

Turkey

South Korea

France

Russia

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Rebels patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city on Dec. 6, 2024. 

If and when al Assad's regime collapses, war-torn Syria will fragment into factional territories under a weakened rebel leadership.

What To Watch For as Syria's Government Barrels Toward Collapse

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 5, 2024

People gather in front of the main gate of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on Dec. 4, 2024, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law. 

The president's brief gambit will likely stall his agenda and eventually lead to his departure, giving rise to an opposition more skeptical of U.S. and Japanese defense ties.

South Korea's Yoon Quickly Scraps Martial Law Order, but the Political Damage Has Been Done

A voter casts their ballot in a voting booth in Ghana in June 2020.

An opposition victory would likely see the new government prioritize boosting the manufacturing sector and easing fiscal consolidation, while a ruling party victory would raise the risk of post-election violence.

Previewing Ghana's General Elections

Global Elections

Snapshots

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024. 

The resurgence of Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria will escalate the 13-year war and could eventually destabilize the al-Assad government by exacerbating its myriad economic and security challenges.

Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo

Angola

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tanzania

Zambia

China

Marshall Islands

Palau

Taiwan

Tuvalu

Sri Lanka

U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Latest

Lebanon

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Iraq

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Europe

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Ukraine

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

U.S.-Iran Relations

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

Cyber

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

A federal appeals court sided with the U.S. Justice Department and ruled to uphold a law that would effectively ban TikTok in the United States if China-based owner ByteDance does not sell the app by Jan. 19, 2025, Politico reported on Dec. 6. 

U.S.: Federal Court Rules To Uphold TikTok Ban

Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed an interstate treaty that obliges the two countries to preserve the inviolability of the external border of the Union State, of which only Russia and Belarus are members, with the use of all available forces and means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, AP reported Dec. 6.

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

Pakistan

Pakistan's jailed former prime minister, Imran Khan, urged his supporters to rally on Dec. 13 in Peshawar, the capital of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region, which is ruled by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

Pakistan: Khan Calls for Protests in Peshawar, Threatens to Launch Civil Disobedience Movement

Mali

Malian authorities issued an arrest warrant against the CEO of Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corp., Mark Bristow, on money laundering charges, Reuters reported on Dec. 5.

Mali: Junta Issues Arrest Warrant Against Barrick Gold CEO

OpenAI is discussing cutting a provisional clause from its agreement with Microsoft that blocks Microsoft's access to any artificial general intelligence model OpenAI develops, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 6.

U.S.: OpenAI May Allow Microsoft To Access Any Artificial General Intelligence Model

Germany

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Kenya

The Orange Democratic Movement party, or ODM, is facing fresh internal divisions after party officials issued contradicting statements on whether to support President William Ruto's potential presidential bid in the 2027 general election, Nation reported on Dec. 5. 

Kenya: ODM Faces Fresh Internal Tensions Over Support for Ruto

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

The European Union and Mercosur (a bloc formed by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached an agreement on the terms of a free trade deal, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Myanmar

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA, one of Myanmar's belligerent ethnic armed organizations, announced a unilateral ceasefire in its armed conflict with the country's governing junta and will pursue more formal peace talks, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Dec. 5.

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

Colombia

Ricardo Bonilla resigned from his post as finance minister at Colombian President Gustavo Petro's request amid an ongoing corruption investigation into the alleged irregular allocation of funds from the National Disaster Risk Management Unit, or UNGRD, and Petro announced finance vice minister Diego Guevara as a replacement, El Colombiano reported Dec. 4.

Colombia: Deepening Corruption Scandal To Weaken President Petro

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed that the United States would provide an additional $600 million in financing to support the development of the Lobito Corridor, which will connect Zambia's Copperbelt to the Atlantic Ocean, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 4.

U.S., Africa: Biden Confirms $600M in New Financing for Lobito Corridor

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Federal Court Rules To Uphold TikTok Ban

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

Pakistan: Khan Calls for Protests in Peshawar, Threatens to Launch Civil Disobedience Movement

Mali: Junta Issues Arrest Warrant Against Barrick Gold CEO

U.S.: OpenAI May Allow Microsoft To Access Any Artificial General Intelligence Model

Kenya: ODM Faces Fresh Internal Tensions Over Support for Ruto

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Myanmar: One Rebel Group Declares Unilateral Ceasefire

Colombia: Deepening Corruption Scandal To Weaken President Petro

U.S., Africa: Biden Confirms $600M in New Financing for Lobito Corridor

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