Assessments

United States

China

Japan

Marshall Islands

Solomon Islands

South Korea

Europe

Maldives

EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis speaks March 16, 2023, in Brussels.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, China-Japan-South Korea Talks

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

Military & Security

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 21, 2023

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Labor union members from the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions participate in a rally in protest of the government's labor policies on May 31, 2023, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Yoon's anti-union policies may lead to political and economic gains, but unrest may also rise.

The Risks and Rewards of Yoon's Anti-Union Stance in South Korea

Canada

World Sikh Organization of Canada President Mukhbir Singh and National Council of Canadian Muslims CEO Stephen Brown speak during a press conference at the Canadian House of Commons in Ottawa on Sept. 19, 2023.

Recent allegations will raise tensions between Canada and India, leading to near-term security risks and possible tit-for-tat retaliation.

Canada-India Ties Take a Dive Following Ottawa's Allegations

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov attends a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations on May 19, 2023, in Pyatigorsk, Stavropol Krai region, Russia. Reports of the deteriorating health of Kadyrov carry acute and chronic risks for the region's stability.

The prospect of the long-time leader of Chechnya no longer being the region’s formal head carries acute and chronic risks for the region's stability, though not along the lines of the 1990s.

Rumors of Kadyrov's Ill Health Raise Questions About Chechnya's Future

Benin

Burkina Faso

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Togo

France

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Rare earth elements. Malaysia's recently announced plan to ban exports of rare earth elements is the latest example of the deepening regional trend of resource nationalism.

Malaysia's move will negatively impact its international partners in the sector, but give Malaysia a strategic advantage in the marketplace.

With a Rare Earth Ban, Malaysia Is Poised to Join the Regional Resource Nationalism Trend

Asia-Pacific

A 3D rendering of the European Union's flag and a gas valve on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.

Energy

Despite high storage and lower demand, European natural gas prices will remain vulnerable to market shocks as the winter heating season begins.

Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season

Latest

Cameroon

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech during a press conference on the country's climate policies at the Downing Street Briefing Room in London on Sept. 20, 2023. 

Environment, Science & Technology

By weakening its climate commitments, London is making a risky political gamble that could also harm the U.K.'s business and investment climate.

The U.K. Government Walks Back on Key Climate Pledges

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks at the opening ceremony of the International Forum for Trilateral Cooperation that commemorated the 20th anniversary of trilateral cooperation among China, South Korea and Japan, in Beijing, China, on May 10, 2019. 

A trilateral summit may increase economic cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, but their security interests continue to diverge.

China, Japan and South Korea Will Resume Trilateral Talks, but Diplomatic Hurdles Remain

U.S.-China Relations

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (center) attends an executive meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 13, 2023, ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.

Japan's Cabinet reshuffle may facilitate new stimulus and improve the ruling party's popularity, but hard economic challenges loom.

In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election

A member of the Red Crescent shows bags of flour on Aug. 30, 2023, in Aghdam, Azerbaijan. 

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to remain high, although a return to large-scale war remains unlikely. 

Azerbaijan Maintains the Upper Hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Guatemala

Police officers remain at the entrance of the Electoral Process Operations Center during government raids in Guatemala City on Sept. 12, 2023.

If political elites overturn Guatemala's election results, unrest and weaker relations with international partners will follow.

More Raids Threaten to Undermine Guatemala's Democracy

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

Social Issues

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

French President Emmanuel Macron announced the withdrawal of the 1,500 French troops based in Niger, Jeune Afrique reported on Sept. 24.

Niger: France Announces Withdrawal of French Troops From Niger

Mali's military junta announced that it will postpone the presidential election scheduled for February 2024, Jeune Afrique reported on Sept. 25.

Mali: Junta Delays 2024 Election Due to 'Technical Reasons'

Serbia

Kosovo

Four people were killed in the village of Banjska, which is located near the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica in Kosovo's Serb-majority northern region, following a shootout between armed ethnic Serb militants and Kosovo's police forces, Reuters reported on Sept. 24.

Kosovo, Serbia: New Clashes May Indicate Worsening Security Environment

Taiwan's Defense Ministry claimed on Sept. 24 that China was conducting military drills around Dacheng Bay in Fujian province (across the Taiwan Strait from Taiwan), the Taipei Times reported the next day. 

China, Taiwan: Competing Deterrence Strategies Heighten Uncertainty Over War

Thousands of ethnic Armenians are fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh, overwhelming the Lachin corridor road from the region to Armenia, Reuters reported Sept. 25. 

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Ethnic Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh

Israel

Saudi Arabia

At the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) annual General Conference, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced that the kingdom will rescind its small quantities protocol in favor of a comprehensive safeguards agreement (CSA), Reuters reported on Sept. 25.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Agrees to Tighter IAEA Oversight as Nuclear Negotiations Progress

A door at the U.N. headquarters Sept. 15, 2023, in New York ahead of the 78th session of the General Assembly. The 78th U.N. General Assembly will occur Sept. 18-26 against a backdrop of deepening global divisions.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.N. General Assembly, Zelensky's U.S. Visit

On Security

Middle East and North Africa

Members of Syria's top jihadist group, the al Quada-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, parade through the city of Idlib on Aug. 20, 2021, in celebration of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.

The deprioritization of global counterterrorism efforts could create opportunities for al Qaeda and the Islamic State if they can overcome their divisions and clearly define an enemy.

The Future of Jihadism in a Multipolar World

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Lebanon

Lebanese and Israeli forces exchanged tear gas fire along their shared border in the disputed Shebaa Farms region, but there were no reports of casualties, AP reported on Sept. 23.

Lebanon, Israel: Soldiers Exchange Tear Gas Fire Along Border Area

Argentina

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Paraguay's President Santiago Pena said the European Union must finalize a trade deal with Mercosur by Dec. 6, or the South American bloc will walk away from negotiations and instead negotiate with Asian countries, the Financial Times reported on Sept. 24.

EU, South America: Mercosur Gives EU Ultimatum to Finalize Trade Talks by December

Kenya

Haiti

In a speech at the U.N. General Assembly, Kenyan President William Ruto called on the U.N. Security Council to formally back a security support mission to Haiti, Reuters reported on Sept. 21.

Haiti: Kenyan President Calls U.N. to Approve Security Deployment to Haiti

Cyber

Cyber insurance claims rose in the first half of 2023, spurred by increasingly costly and severe ransomware attacks, according to a report published on Sept. 20 by U.S. insurance provider Coalition.

Cyberspace: Ransomware Continues to Push Cyber Insurance Claims Higher

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Niger: France Announces Withdrawal of French Troops From Niger

Mali: Junta Delays 2024 Election Due to 'Technical Reasons'

Kosovo, Serbia: New Clashes May Indicate Worsening Security Environment

China, Taiwan: Competing Deterrence Strategies Heighten Uncertainty Over War

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Ethnic Armenians Flee Nagorno-Karabakh

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Agrees to Tighter IAEA Oversight as Nuclear Negotiations Progress

Lebanon, Israel: Soldiers Exchange Tear Gas Fire Along Border Area

EU, South America: Mercosur Gives EU Ultimatum to Finalize Trade Talks by December

Haiti: Kenyan President Calls U.N. to Approve Security Deployment to Haiti

Cyberspace: Ransomware Continues to Push Cyber Insurance Claims Higher

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