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Angola

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Tanzania

Zambia

United States

China

Marshall Islands

Palau

Taiwan

Tuvalu

Sri Lanka

U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Japan

South Korea

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

Economics

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Israel

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 27, 2024

Lebanon

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

Snapshots

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Philippines

(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 

A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.

The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts

Romania

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Global Elections

Namibia

Uruguay

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Russia

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Latest

People gather in front of the main gate of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on Dec. 4, 2024, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law. 

The president's brief gambit will likely stall his agenda and eventually lead to his departure, giving rise to an opposition more skeptical of U.S. and Japanese defense ties.

South Korea's Yoon Quickly Scraps Martial Law Order, but the Political Damage Has Been Done

Ghana

A voter casts their ballot in a voting booth in Ghana in June 2020.

An opposition victory would likely see the new government prioritize boosting the manufacturing sector and easing fiscal consolidation, while a ruling party victory would raise the risk of post-election violence.

Previewing Ghana's General Elections

Syria

Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024. 

The resurgence of Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria will escalate the 13-year war and could eventually destabilize the al-Assad government by exacerbating its myriad economic and security challenges.

Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo

France

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Europe

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

U.S.-Iran Relations

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024.

While Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.

Japan's PM Ishiba Survives To Struggle Another Day

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

Cyber

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Palestinian Territories

The rival Palestinian groups Hamas and Fatah agreed to form a committee of 12-15 politically independent technocrats to govern the Gaza Strip once the Israel-Hamas war ends, The Guardian reported on Dec. 3 following talks between the two groups in Egypt. 

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree To Form Committee to Run Post-War Gaza

Bangladesh

India

Bangladesh's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned India's envoy to condemn protesters' storming of Bangladesh's consulate in India on Dec. 2 over Bangladesh's Nov. 26 detention of Hindu leader Krishna Das Prabhu on charges of sedition, Hindustan Times reported on Dec. 3.

Bangladesh: Dhaka Summons Indian Envoy Amid Escalating Protests

Mali

Mali's Tuareg rebels dissolved their Permanent Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad coalition and formed a new political-military entity dubbed the Azawad Liberation Front calling for the independence of northern Mali, dubbed Azawad, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 2.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Form New Political-Military Entity, Call for Azawad's Independence

The International Monetary Fund approved the third review of Ghana's 2023 support program, Reuters reported on Dec. 2.

Ghana: IMF Approves Third Review of Support Program

Turkey

The Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces captured several Syrian government-controlled villages on the far side of the Euphrates River on Dec. 2 and called on U.S. air support in the course of their operations, according to sources on the ground, Reuters reported on Dec. 3.

Syria: SDF Joins Anti-Government Fighting Near Key Eastern City

Iraq

At least 300 Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters -- mostly from the Badr Organization and Nujabaa group -- crossed into Syria to back the Syrian government's forces and fight the rebels, in addition to a small number of fighters from Fatemiyoun, Reuters reported Dec. 2. 

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

China's Commerce Ministry banned the export of dual-use items such as gallium, germanium, antimony and super-hard materials to the United States and announced it would review export licenses granted for other dual-use items such as graphite to the United States, AP reported on Dec. 3.

China, U.S.: China Bans Exports of Gallium, Germanium, Antimony to U.S.

Germany

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Indonesia

Indonesia and Canada signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement to bolster bilateral trade and sustainable critical mineral and agricultural development, Reuters reported on Dec. 2. 

Indonesia, Canada: New Trade Deal To Remove Tariffs, Increase Investment

Georgia

Georgia has seen five straight days of intense protests since Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on Nov. 28 that the country had decided not to begin its EU accession negotiations until 2028, BBC reported on Dec. 2. 

Georgia: Ruling Party Suspends EU Accession Talks Until 2028, Fueling Protests

The center-left Social Democratic Party emerged as the largest party in Romania's parliamentary elections, obtaining 23% of the vote ahead of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians with 18% and the co-ruling center-right National Liberal Party with 14%, Politico reported on Dec. 2.

Romania: Mainstream Parties To Retain Control of Parliament Despite Far-Right Gains

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

South Korea's Yoon Quickly Scraps Martial Law Order, but the Political Damage Has Been Done

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree To Form Committee to Run Post-War Gaza

Bangladesh: Dhaka Summons Indian Envoy Amid Escalating Protests

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Form New Political-Military Entity, Call for Azawad's Independence

Ghana: IMF Approves Third Review of Support Program

Syria: SDF Joins Anti-Government Fighting Near Key Eastern City

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

China, U.S.: China Bans Exports of Gallium, Germanium, Antimony to U.S.

Indonesia, Canada: New Trade Deal To Remove Tariffs, Increase Investment

Georgia: Ruling Party Suspends EU Accession Talks Until 2028, Fueling Protests

Romania: Mainstream Parties To Retain Control of Parliament Despite Far-Right Gains

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