Assessments

Mozambique

Brazil

United States

Iran

Israel

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Environment, Science & Technology

Why is semiconductor production limited to a handful of regions?

Applied Geopolitics: U.S.-China Strategic Competition: The Role of Technology

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 3, 2024

China

Maldives

India

An aerial view of the island of Male, which is the capital of the Maldives.

Economics

If it defaults on its Islamic bonds, the island nation will be forced to seek more financial aid from India and China, which would heighten macroeconomic instability and erode investor confidence.

Trouble in Paradise: The Maldives' Looming Debt Default

Lebanon

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Tunisian President Kais Saied speaks to reporters Dec. 24, 2023, in Mnihla in Ariana province, Tunisia. In a second term, Saied would likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Once in office, Kais Saied will likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Tunisia's President Poised for Reelection, and to Expand His Power

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Internally displaced people walk past the Tigrayan flag at the Tsehaye camp in Ethiopia's Shire, Tigray region, on July 16, 2024. 

Factionalism within the Tigray region's ruling party raises the prospect of resurging clashes in the region, threatening to undermine Ethiopia's recent peace and economic gains.

Tigray's Leadership Tussle Bodes Ill for Ethiopia

Israeli tanks gather by the Lebanese border on Sept. 30, 2024. 

Israel is trying to seize on the chaos its recent attacks have inflicted on Hezbollah, but no ground operation will firmly and quickly secure southern Lebanon, and could pull Israel into a prolonged and costly campaign.

Assessing Israel's Options for a Ground Invasion in Lebanon

Snapshots

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Japan

Newly-elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shigeru Ishiba, speaks during a press conference on Sept. 27, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. 

As prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba will focus on strengthening the Japanese military and regional defense ties. But the opposition would seek to roll back such efforts if it wins the Oct. 27 snap general election.

Japan's New PM Will Seek To Revive His Party -- if He Survives a Snap Election

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

Latest

Georgia

The founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, stands behind the bulletproof glass as he gives a campaign speech in Gori, Georgia, on Sept. 14, 2024.

In the likely case that the ruling GD party clings to power, Georgia will continue to feign interest in Western integration as it deepens ties with China and Russia. But an opposition victory that yields a new, pro-European government cannot be ruled out.

What's at Stake in Georgia's Oct. 26 Election

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

The Geopolitics of Water

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Rwanda

Europe

Russia

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Global Elections

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

Canada

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Social Issues

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Columns

On Geopolitics

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

The International Longshoremen's Association union, or ILA, reached a deal with employers to suspend the strike at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports to extend the current contract through Jan. 15, 2025, in order to spend more time negotiating disputed issues, The Washington Post reported on Oct. 3.

U.S.: Port Strike Suspended After Three Days

South Korea

South Korea and the United States concluded a 12th Special Measures Agreement on cost-sharing for U.S. Forces Korea, or USFK, through 2030, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 4.

South Korea, U.S.: Cost-Sharing Deal on U.S. Forces Korea Stokes Trump Concerns

Pakistan

Pakistan locked down its capital Islamabad and neighboring Rawalpindi, with major roads blocked by shipping containers, mobile service suspended, schools closed and public transit halted, as jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan called on supporters of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party to protest at D-Chowk, a key junction near Pakistan's Parliament and the prime minister's office, Dawn reported on Oct. 4.

Pakistan: Islamabad Under Lockdown To Prevent PTI Rally

Science & Technology

Morocco

The European Court of Justice, or ECJ, issued a final ruling invalidating the 2019 EU-Morocco trade deals on agriculture and fisheries, saying the European Commission had violated the self-determination rights of the indigenous Sahrawi people in Western Sahara by not including them in negotiations, Reuters reported on Oct. 4.

Morocco, Western Sahara, EU: European Court of Justice Invalidates 2019 EU-Morocco Trade Deals

Kenya

Kenyan authorities requested a governance and corruption diagnostic from the International Monetary Fund, Reuters reported on Oct. 4.

Kenya: Nairobi Requests Governance and Corruption Review From the IMF

Almost all of Ghana's eurobond investors acceded to the Ghanaian government's invitation to exchange their eurobonds for newly issued ones, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 3.

Ghana: Government To Exit Default Following Successful Eurobond Swap

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Colombia

Colombia's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Jorge Rojas announced the country will join China's Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, once both parties discuss relevant details, El Pais reported on Oct. 4.

Colombia: Chinese Investments To Increase as Bogota Announces Plan To Join BRI

EU member states did not oppose a proposal by the European Commission to increase tariffs on electric vehicles made in China, Euronews reported on Oct. 4.

EU, China: EU To Move Forward With Tariffs on EVs Made in China

Egypt's supply ministry developed plans to decrease the cost of subsidized bread by cutting wheat imports and adding cheaper ingredients such as corn and sorghum, Reuters reported on Oct. 3.

Egypt: Cairo Proposes Lowering Bread Costs by Supplementing Wheat Imports

Pakistan's Privatization Minister Abdul Aleem Khan signed multiple memorandums of understanding with Russian officials to enhance bilateral trade and investment and increase imports and exports of food items, Arab News published on Oct. 3. 

Pakistan, Russia: Agreements Enhance Bilateral Trade, Establish Barter Trade Arrangement

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

What's at Stake in Georgia's Oct. 26 Election

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Port Strike Suspended After Three Days

South Korea, U.S.: Cost-Sharing Deal on U.S. Forces Korea Stokes Trump Concerns

Pakistan: Islamabad Under Lockdown To Prevent PTI Rally

Morocco, Western Sahara, EU: European Court of Justice Invalidates 2019 EU-Morocco Trade Deals

Kenya: Nairobi Requests Governance and Corruption Review From the IMF

Ghana: Government To Exit Default Following Successful Eurobond Swap

Colombia: Chinese Investments To Increase as Bogota Announces Plan To Join BRI

EU, China: EU To Move Forward With Tariffs on EVs Made in China

Egypt: Cairo Proposes Lowering Bread Costs by Supplementing Wheat Imports

Pakistan, Russia: Agreements Enhance Bilateral Trade, Establish Barter Trade Arrangement

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