Turkey's Risky Strategy of Blocking Finland's and Sweden's NATO Membership

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

As Turkey's 2023 presidential election approaches, the government probably will be tempted to manipulate the election process or try exploiting a foreign crisis.

The proposal is probably a negotiation tactic, but it will make talks with the European Union tougher and could spark a trade war.

While Moscow will respond with disruptive measures, direct conflict between Russia and Sweden or Finland is unlikely at this time.

Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the country's late dictator, is the frontrunner. But a surprise win by his main rival could see a big shift away from Duterte-era policies.

While it may condemn Western efforts to financially alienate Russia, Brasilia is unlikely to help Moscow build an alternative global payments system.

By focusing on maritime threats, Canberra risks overlooking its island neighbors' other security concerns like climate change, which could enable Beijing to gain more influence in the region.

On top of destabilizing Moldova's pro-EU government, the attacks in Transdniestria could distract Kyiv from Moscow's eastern offensive by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine.

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.