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Iran

Lebanon

Syria

Russia

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Military & Security

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Assessments

Ghana

Turkey

South Korea

France

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Rebels patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city on Dec. 6, 2024. 

If and when al Assad's regime collapses, war-torn Syria will fragment into factional territories under a weakened rebel leadership.

What To Watch For as Syria's Government Barrels Toward Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Israel

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 5, 2024

Iraq

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

People gather in front of the main gate of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea on Dec. 4, 2024, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared emergency martial law. 

The president's brief gambit will likely stall his agenda and eventually lead to his departure, giving rise to an opposition more skeptical of U.S. and Japanese defense ties.

South Korea's Yoon Quickly Scraps Martial Law Order, but the Political Damage Has Been Done

A voter casts their ballot in a voting booth in Ghana in June 2020.

An opposition victory would likely see the new government prioritize boosting the manufacturing sector and easing fiscal consolidation, while a ruling party victory would raise the risk of post-election violence.

Previewing Ghana's General Elections

Global Elections

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Rebel fighters pose for a picture on a tank on a road leading to Syria's northwestern Idlib province on Nov. 30, 2024. 

The resurgence of Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria will escalate the 13-year war and could eventually destabilize the al-Assad government by exacerbating its myriad economic and security challenges.

Syria's Frozen Civil War Heats Up As Rebels Seize Aleppo

Latest

Ukraine

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Yemen

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Chart of stock market investment trading on blue background.

Economic coercion is becoming more prevalent in international politics, with certain countries leveraging their economic power to pursue political goals. 

Economic Power in International Politics

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Columns

On Geopolitics

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

Cyber

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Taiwan

Taiwan's Defense Ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang said China's naval deployments in the Taiwan Strait, near Japan's southern islands and in the South China Sea were the largest since 1996, with Sun adding that the current naval deployment is larger than any of China's previous four live-fire drills in the last three years, the Taipei Times reported on Dec. 10. 

China, Taiwan: Chinese Military Deployments Raise Fears of Largest Drill Yet

Lee Yang-soo, the head of a task force launched by South Korea's ruling People Power Party on Dec. 9 to plan President Yoon Suk Yeol's early departure, said the task force had proposed that Yoon resign in February or March, the South China Morning Post reported on Dec. 10. 

South Korea: Ruling Party Proposes February-March Timeline for President Yoon’s Resignation

South Sudan

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit sacked the country's chief of defense forces, inspector general of police and central bank governor, Radio Tamazuj reported on Dec. 9.

South Sudan: President Sacks Military and Policy Chiefs, Central Bank Governor 

Syria's former rebel leader Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed provisional prime minister until March 1, 2025, marking the first formal appointment of the post-al Assad government after the regime fell to rebel forces on Dec. 8, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 10.

Syria, Israel: Syria's New Leaders Appoint Caretaker Prime Minister Amid Israeli Airstrikes

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Google Quantum AI built a quantum computer chip called Willow that reduced errors exponentially as it increased the number of qubits, a unit of computing information, Google's researchers said in a paper published in Nature on Dec. 9. 

U.S.: Google Quantum AI Achieves Breakthrough Necessary for Scaling Up Quantum Computers

Syria's new rebel leaders reportedly agreed to temporarily guarantee the safety of Russian military facilities and diplomatic institutions in Syria, Reuters reported on Dec. 8.

Russia, Syria: Interim Agreement To Protect Russian Bases in Syria for Now

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso's newly appointed prime minister announced a 24-member government two days after junta leader Ibrahim Traore dismissed the government of then-Prime Minister Apollinaire Joachim Kyelem de Tambela, Radio France Internationale reported on Dec. 8.

Burkina Faso: New Government Formed After Dissolution of Previous Administration

Germany

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Bangladesh

India

Bangladesh's Foreign Secretary Mohammad Jashim Uddin and India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to discuss strained bilateral relations, AP reported on Dec. 9.

India, Bangladesh: Governments Discuss Recent Tensions

Ghanaian Vice President and presidential candidate for the ruling New Patriotic Party Mahamadu Bawumia conceded defeat to John Mahama, the presidential candidate for the opposition National Democratic Congress, or NDC, in the country's Dec. 7 general election, Reuters reported on Dec. 8.

Ghana: Opposition National Democratic Congress To Win Presidential Race, Secure Parliamentary Majority

Israeli ground forces crossed the Israel-Syria demilitarized zone, taking control of Mount Hermon and other locations to stabilize the border area, The New York Times reported on Dec. 8, citing two Israeli officials. 

Israel, U.S., Syria: Israel Enters Demilitarized Syrian Border Zone; Israel, U.S. Conduct Airstrikes

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Taiwan: Chinese Military Deployments Raise Fears of Largest Drill Yet

South Korea: Ruling Party Proposes February-March Timeline for President Yoon’s Resignation

South Sudan: President Sacks Military and Policy Chiefs, Central Bank Governor

Syria, Israel: Syria's New Leaders Appoint Caretaker Prime Minister Amid Israeli Airstrikes

U.S.: Google Quantum AI Achieves Breakthrough Necessary for Scaling Up Quantum Computers

Russia, Syria: Interim Agreement To Protect Russian Bases in Syria for Now

Burkina Faso: New Government Formed After Dissolution of Previous Administration

India, Bangladesh: Governments Discuss Recent Tensions

Ghana: Opposition National Democratic Congress To Win Presidential Race, Secure Parliamentary Majority

Israel, U.S., Syria: Israel Enters Demilitarized Syrian Border Zone; Israel, U.S. Conduct Airstrikes

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