2022 Third-Quarter Forecast

If opposition candidates remain excluded from the July 31 legislative ballot, unrest will likely continue, potentially threatening one of West Africa’s most stable democracies.

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

The outcome of the first round of municipal elections confirms a trend that could define the 2023 national election and increase economic and political risk in the country.

A slowing economy and fragmented legislature will likely force Petro to scale back his ambitious plans for tackling poverty and climate change.

Chinese pilots’ aggression, as evidenced by the recent interceptions of Australian and Canadian aircraft, is increasing the risk of a mid-air collision that triggers a greater military escalation.

Yemen may be edging toward a frozen conflict, as the need to keep humanitarian lifelines open push Houthi rebels and government forces to hold off on fighting.

The city's capture will free up resources for Russia's offensive in Donbas, secure a land corridor to Crimea and boost Moscow's internal propaganda efforts.

An opposition win would see a faster transition to greener energy sources, and perhaps softer China rhetoric, while a win for the ruling party would see policy continuity.

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.