Russia's economic struggles are unlikely to alone force political change or de-escalation in Ukraine in the coming year. But medium-term challenges and the country's bleak structural outlook will undermine President Vladimir Putin's authority and complicate Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. A year after launching its war in Ukraine, Russia's economic outlook is bleak, but the risk of an acute crisis remains low. However, Russia's economic situation will likely worsen on Feb. 5, which is when the G-7's price cap on Russia's refined fuel sales will enter force, complementing the price cap on Russian crude that's been in place since Dec. 5. Moscow will likely continue to conceal and manipulate its economic data to avoid panic, which it has done since the start of the Ukraine invasion. But Russia's economy is slated to further contract in 2023 amid falling global prices for oil and gas, which have in recent years constituted...
