GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

Artyom Lukin

Board of Contributors

Jan 31, 2020 | 10:45 GMT

North Koreans rally in support of the Workers' Party at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 5, 2020.

North Koreans rally in support of the Workers' Party at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang on Jan. 5. Kim Jong Un's high-stakes nuclear gamble has not resulted in a deal with the United States and has only increased North Korea's dependence on China.

(KIM WON JIN/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

Two years ago, Kim Jong Un's nuclear gamble seemed to have paid off by bringing the United States to the negotiating table; now, the North Korean leader faces a dilemma.
Kim can denuclearize, as demanded by the United States, or stick with his hard-won nuclear and missile potential and learn to accept China's growing control over North Korea.
It's a stark and narrow choice, the result of what now seems to be Kim's strategic, perhaps fateful, mistake to abandon his father's relative restraint in nuclear and missile development.

There is a long-standing, somewhat cliched view in the community of North Korea experts that Pyongyang always holds the strategic initiative when dealing with the United States. While it may well have been the case in the past, North Korea may no longer have much freedom of action. Pyongyang finds itself in an unenviable position facing a stark and narrow choice: Start real denuclearization as demanded by the United States and lose much, or even all, of its hard-won nuclear and missile potential, or cling to the nukes and accept its rising dependence on China, with existential risks for North Korea's sovereignty....

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