ASSESSMENTS

Venezuela's Vying Suitors Update Their Game Plans

May 3, 2019 | 04:30 GMT

Juan Guaido, leader of the political opposition movement in Venezuela, greets supporters at a demonstration on May 1, 2019.

On April 30, opposition leader Juan Guaido called for an uprising to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power.

(Edilzon Gamez/Getty Images)

Highlights

With Venezuelan military officials' support for an opposition-led uprising in doubt, the United States will pursue tighter economic sanctions on Venezuela as its main strategy to force President Nicolas Maduro from power.
Washington might also try to enlist the help of Colombia and Brazil to directly intervene in Venezuela, though both countries will be hesitant to do so for fear of political backlash and retaliation from pro-Maduro insurgents.
To deter Cuba's support for the Maduro government, the United States will also increase sanctions pressure on Havana, but it's unlikely the Cuban government will cave due to its reliance on Venezuelan crude oil.
Russia, meanwhile, will focus on bolstering its military presence in Venezuela — creating a strategic foothold in Washington's backyard amid the two countries' great power competition.

Venezuela's government deflected the attempted uprising on April 30, but run-ins with the opposition are far from over. And now, suitors backing both sides of the country's political crisis are now working to recalibrate their plans. On the pro-opposition side, the United States will find itself with little option but to tighten the economic noose around Caracas even more. Meanwhile, the main allies of President Nicolas Maduro -- Russia and Cuba -- will seize the opportunity to strengthen their stronghold in Venezuela. ...

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