Forecasts

Tensions between China, Russia and the West will shape a quarter marked by wars, trade disputes and consequential elections.

High inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainty will create significant political, economic, social and security risks worldwide during the third quarter.

The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery according to countries' access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.

Elections in 2024 across diverse territories and amid various socioeconomic and geopolitical contexts will collectively influence global affairs and shape international relations for the decade ahead.

The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.

Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.