Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 18, 2024

Snapshots

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Economics

Politics

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

India

Bharatiya Janata Party flags on April 15 in the Indian city of Raipur. If India's ruling BJP party remains in power after the country's April 19-June 1 general election, policy continuity regarding efforts to increase employment, build infrastructure and implement controversial social policies nationally that trigger social unrest can be expected. 

If the ruling party in fact wins, policy continuity regarding employment, infrastructure and controversial social policies that trigger social unrest can be expected.

India's 2024 Elections Will Likely Generate Policy Continuity

Ethiopia

Somalia

A photo of the Somali flag.

Military & Security

As Somalia’s president moves to strengthen the country’s fragile state institutions, disputes over constitutional reforms threaten to deepen domestic and regional challenges.

Somalia's Constitutional Changes Widen Rifts at Home and Abroad

China

Japan

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida shake hands following a joint press conference in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 10, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Greater U.S.-Japan defense cooperation will exacerbate China's sense of entrapment, furthering Beijing's partnerships with authoritarian regimes and its long-term preparations for a Taiwan conflict.

Japan-U.S. Relationship Serves as a Model for Indo-Pacific Security, a Bad Omen for China

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

Social Issues

What role should social listening play in the mitigation of social risk?

RANE Insights: Understanding the Public Perception of DEI

Iran

Israel

A billboard depicting Iranian ballistic missiles pictured April 15, 2024, in Valiasr Square in central Tehran. Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

Iran's attack against Israel and Israel's possible retaliation will increase the likelihood that Tehran will accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

How Israel's Response to Iran Could Accelerate the Iranian Nuclear Program

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Iran's large missile and drone attack will prompt an Israeli retaliation that will focus on reestablishing deterrence and preventing future similar attacks on Israel, but in doing so, Israel risks expanding the conflict, further sinking the region into turmoil and possibly dragging in the United States.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

How Israel Might Respond to the Iranian Attack

Brazil

Colombia

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

India's 2024 general elections, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Europe

Glass-like molecules float against a green and purple background.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The European Union's gradual adoption of green hydrogen will bolster its energy security and create new global energy relations.

Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path

Latest

Russia

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

The Jordanian flag. Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan will remain aligned with the United States and Israel, which will result in a heightened risk of attacks by Iranian proxies and growing risks of radicalization.

Jordan's Alignment With Israel Will Put It in Iran's Crosshairs

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Cyber

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo announced that the government had agreed to allow 32 major medical universities to reduce state-mandated hikes to medical school enrollment quotas by up to 50% in 2025, but they must still comply with the full scope of quota hikes (2,000 additional student slots per year) by 2026, Reuters reported on April 19.

South Korea: Government Reaches Agreement With Striking Doctors

Science & Technology

China's Minister for Water Resources Li Guoying noted in a visit to southwestern Yunnan province that "we must get ready for a worst case scenario" amid the province's ongoing drought, and he urged local authorities to meet water needs for households and agriculture, the South China Morning Post reported on April 19.

China: Seasonal Floods, Droughts To Fuel Infrastructure, Energy Buildout

Argentina's government formally requested to join NATO as a global partner during talks in Brussels, Belgium, between NATO's Deputy General Secretary Mircea Geoana and Argentine Defense Minister Luis Petri, AP reported on April 18. 

Argentina: Government Requests To Join NATO as Global Partner

Chad

In a statement dated April 4 and shared online, Chadian Chief of Air Staff Brig. Gen. Idriss Amine Ahmed ordered the immediate suspension of U.S. military activities at the Adji Kossei Air Base in Chad's capital, N'Djamena, Tchad One reported on April 19. 

Chad: Junta Reportedly Orders Suspension of U.S. Military Activities

The United States vetoed a proposal in the U.N. Security Council to grant the Palestinian Territories full membership in the United Nations, AP reported on April 18.

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: U.S. Vetoes Bid for Full Palestinian Membership in U.N.

Polls for the first phase of India's general election opened, encompassing 102 constituencies across 21 states and union territories, including Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh, AP reported on April 19. 

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

The Iranian ship MV Behshad, which the United States suspects is a spy ship gathering intelligence for Yemen's Houthi rebels to target ships in the Red Sea, has sailed back to Iran, NBC News reported on April 18.

Iran, Yemen: Iranian Spy Ship Sails Home, Denying Houthis Strategic Intelligence

Mali

Mauritania

Senegal

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye met with Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in his first state visit since being inaugurated on April 2, Radio France Internationale reported on April 19.

Senegal: Faye Conducts First Visit to Mauritania, Discusses Energy Projects

Washington said it agreed with Israel's objective to remove the Palestinian militant group Hamas from power in Gaza's southern city of Rafah but that it remained concerned about the possible means by which Israel would do so, according to a readout of a working group meeting between U.S. and Israeli officials published by the White House on April 18.

Israel, U.S.: Washington Agrees With Israel's Goal of Removing Hamas From Rafah

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Niger

South Africa

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Mali's junta leader Col. Assimi Goita on April 15 ordered the creation of a rapid intervention force within the army, L'Essor reported on April 17.

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

South Korea: Government Reaches Agreement With Striking Doctors

China: Seasonal Floods, Droughts To Fuel Infrastructure, Energy Buildout

Argentina: Government Requests To Join NATO as Global Partner

Chad: Junta Reportedly Orders Suspension of U.S. Military Activities

U.S., Israel, Palestinian Territories: U.S. Vetoes Bid for Full Palestinian Membership in U.N.

India: First Phase of Voting in General Election Begins

Iran, Yemen: Iranian Spy Ship Sails Home, Denying Houthis Strategic Intelligence

Senegal: Faye Conducts First Visit to Mauritania, Discusses Energy Projects

Israel, U.S.: Washington Agrees With Israel's Goal of Removing Hamas From Rafah

Mali: Junta Creates Rapid Intervention Force

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