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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was looking to trade continued U.S. military support to Ukraine for "rare earths and other things," the Financial Times reported on Feb. 4.

Ukraine, U.S., Russia: Trump Wants Ukrainian Minerals in Return for U.S. Military Support

Europe

Economics

Energy

European officials are discussing the potential resumption of Russian pipeline gas exports to the European Union as part of a broader settlement to end the Russia-Ukraine war, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 30, citing sources close to the discussions. 

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Russian forces captured the town of Velyka Novosilka in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region, AP reported on Jan. 27.

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Capture Velyka Novosilka

Hungary

EU foreign ministers agreed to renew the bloc's sanctions against Russia for another six months after striking a last-minute deal with Hungary, which had tied its approval to the European Commission pressuring Ukraine into providing assurances regarding the integrity of pipelines carrying oil and gas into the European Union, Reuters reported Jan. 27.

EU, Hungary, Russia: EU Agrees to Extend Russia Sanctions as Hungary Backs Down 

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's advisers are developing two sanctions strategies to facilitate an agreement resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16. 

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia 

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where the two leaders signed a "100 Year Partnership" agreement on military, technology and energy cooperation, Reuters reported on Jan. 16. 

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched more than 200 drones and other munitions against military facilities and infrastructure deep inside Russia, making it the largest Ukrainian air attack in terms of the number of drones since the beginning of the war, Agentstvo reported Jan. 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Incoming U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz laid out several points of the incoming Trump administration's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, most notably a request for Ukraine to lower its mobilization age from the current 25 to 18, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Assessments

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during a state awards ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 16, 2024.

The negotiations are unlikely to quickly yield a ceasefire, as Trump pressures the Kremlin for a deal with sanctions pressure and the prospect of continued support to Ukraine.

How Will U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Play Out in the Months Ahead?

Media

Forecast Webcast

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

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On Geopolitics

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Namibia

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Kazakhstan

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

France

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S., Russia: Trump Wants Ukrainian Minerals in Return for U.S. Military Support

EU, Russia: EU Debates Controversial Russian Gas Resumption as Part of Potential Ukraine Peace Deal

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Capture Velyka Novosilka

EU, Hungary, Russia: EU Agrees to Extend Russia Sanctions as Hungary Backs Down

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

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