2017 Annual Forecast

Dec 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMT

The main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.

The convulsions to come in 2017, including those in the United States, are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, such Japan, Russia and Germany, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it.



Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower. ...

Forecasts are exclusive to Subscribers.

Subscribe now and unlock unlimited access