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Quarterly

Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2026
2026 Third-Quarter Forecast

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 30, 2026
2026 Second-Quarter Forecast

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 29, 2025
2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 30, 2025
2025 Third-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsMar 31, 2025
2025 Second-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsSep 23, 2024
2024 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 24, 2024
2024 Third-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsMar 25, 2024
2024 Second-Quarter Forecast

During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 25, 2023
2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

During the final quarter of 2023, the world will feel the impact of a global economy in transition as some of its pillars face headwinds and the war in Ukraine lingers.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 26, 2023
2023 Third-Quarter Forecast

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 27, 2023
2023 Second-Quarter Forecast

Geopolitical tensions will remain high as the war in Ukraine continues and meager economic activity continues to raise questions about the future of the global economy.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 26, 2022
2022 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
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