Forecasts

A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.

The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.

The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.

The war in Ukraine will grind on over the next year, sparking a global gas crunch and challenging the post-Cold War world order.

Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.

Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.