Quarterly Forecasts Sep 26, 2022 | 00:00 GMTSep 26, 2022
A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.
Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 27, 2022 | 00:00 GMTJun 27, 2022
High inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainty will create significant political, economic, social and security risks worldwide during the third quarter.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 28, 2022 | 00:00 GMTMar 28, 2022
The war in Ukraine, energy and food inflation and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will create political, economic, security and social risk around the world during the second quarter.
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 27, 2021 | 00:00 GMTSep 27, 2021
The fourth quarter will see countries with low vaccination rates explore options to "live with COVID" rather than continue severe lockdowns in order to enable economic recovery.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 28, 2021 | 03:25 GMTJun 28, 2021
The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery according to countries' access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 29, 2021 | 00:00 GMTMar 29, 2021
COVID-19 will again dominate in the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be uneven around the world.
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 28, 2020 | 11:00 GMTSep 28, 2020
The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMTJun 29, 2020
While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.
Annual Forecasts
Annual Forecasts Jan 3, 2023 | 00:00 GMTJan 3, 2023
Multilateral cooperation will weaken as economic activity slows and the main pillars of the global economy increase protectionism in another year of war and tight energy supplies.
Annual Forecasts Dec 18, 2022 | 00:01 GMTDec 18, 2022
The war in Ukraine will grind on over the next year, sparking a global gas crunch and challenging the post-Cold War world order.
Annual Forecasts Jan 3, 2022 | 00:08 GMTJan 3, 2022
We expect most of the world to adopt a "live-with-COVID" strategy that seeks to keep economies as open as possible and to avoid the recession-provoking policies of 2020 and parts of 2021.
Annual Forecasts Dec 20, 2021 | 10:00 GMTDec 20, 2021
The next year will see slower economic growth and more cyberattacks worldwide, along with increased Western tensions with China, Iran and Russia.
Annual Forecasts Jan 3, 2021 | 21:37 GMTJan 3, 2021
The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.
Annual Forecasts Dec 14, 2020 | 00:00 GMTDec 14, 2020
The world will focus on recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, coming as the U.S. inaugurates a new president seeking to restore U.S. leadership in global affairs.
Annual Forecasts Jan 6, 2020 | 00:01 GMTJan 6, 2020
Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections will shape the actions and decisions of countries around the world in 2020. A contentious election year in the United States means that even as other nations deal with their own domestic, regional and global concerns, they must take into account the opportunities and risks in decisions that overlap U.S. interests, considering the possible dramatic post-election change in U.S. posture
Annual Forecasts Dec 16, 2019 | 10:00 GMTDec 16, 2019
Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.
Decade Forecasts
Decade Forecasts Feb 12, 2020 | 02:59 GMTFeb 12, 2020
Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.
Decade Forecasts Feb 23, 2015 | 02:13 GMTFeb 23, 2015
The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.
Decade Forecasts Jan 21, 2010 | 14:27 GMTJan 21, 2010
We continue to maintain the essential forecasts made in 2005.
Decade Forecasts Feb 7, 2005 | 23:59 GMTFeb 7, 2005
The world will remain what it always has been: a dangerous place in which nation-states, and occasional non-nation-state actors, continue to struggle, compete and make war. What follows is our estimate of who the main actors will be, where the struggles will be, what sort of competition will take place and where wars might occur.
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 2000 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 2000
The fundamental question of the next decade – for both individual countries and the international system as a whole – will revolve around the United States. The question, increasingly, will be this: How can other countries limit American power and control American behavior?
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 1995 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 1995
The decade ending 2005 will be marked by two contradictory trends. On one hand it will be a period of unprecedented global economic prosperity and growth. On the other hand, it will become a period of increasing fragmentation and tension in the international system. As in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will go hand in hand.
