Quarterly Forecasts

Quarterly ForecastsSep 25, 2023
2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

During the final quarter of 2023, the world will feel the impact of a global economy in transition as some of its pillars face headwinds and the war in Ukraine lingers.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 26, 2023
2023 Third-Quarter Forecast

Low economic growth, pervasive financial risks, the stalemate in Ukraine and technological competition between the world’s largest economies will drive geopolitical risk during the third quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 27, 2023
2023 Second-Quarter Forecast

Geopolitical tensions will remain high as the war in Ukraine continues and meager economic activity continues to raise questions about the future of the global economy.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 26, 2022
2022 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
A handful of wheat, Ukainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Protest in Chile
Quarterly ForecastsJun 27, 2022
2022 Third-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsMar 28, 2022
2022 Second-Quarter Forecast

The war in Ukraine, energy and food inflation and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will create political, economic, security and social risk around the world during the second quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 27, 2021
2021 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsJun 28, 2021
2021 Third-Quarter Forecast

The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery according to countries' access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 29, 2021
2021 Second-Quarter Forecast

COVID-19 will again dominate in the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be uneven around the world.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 28, 2020
2020 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.

Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020
2020 Third-Quarter Forecast

While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 26, 2020
2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Annual Forecasts

Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2023
2023 Annual Forecast

Multilateral cooperation will weaken as economic activity slows and the main pillars of the global economy increase protectionism in another year of war and tight energy supplies.

Annual ForecastsDec 18, 2022
2023 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

The war in Ukraine will grind on over the next year, sparking a global gas crunch and challenging the post-Cold War world order.

Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2022
2022 Annual Forecast

We expect most of the world to adopt a "live-with-COVID" strategy that seeks to keep economies as open as possible and to avoid the recession-provoking policies of 2020 and parts of 2021.

A stack of shipping containers at a port
Annual ForecastsDec 20, 2021
2022 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview
An image of the COVID-19 vaccine, President-elect Joe Biden, the Huawei logo, and a stock market sign
Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2021
2021 Annual Forecast
Annual ForecastsDec 14, 2020
2021 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

The world will focus on recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, coming as the U.S. inaugurates a new president seeking to restore U.S. leadership in global affairs.

Annual ForecastsJan 6, 2020
2020 Annual Forecast
Annual ForecastsDec 16, 2019
2020 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.

In Stratfor's 2019 Annual Forecast we explore the critical factors that will influence the global system in the year ahead.
Annual ForecastsDec 3, 2018
2019 Annual Forecast

Great power competition is only set to intensify in 2019 and Stratfor's Annual Forecast outlines the critical issues for the coming year.

Though the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula can't be ruled out, the United States will probably try to avoid a costly preventive strike against the North's nuclear weapons program that would plunge the global economy back into recession.
Annual ForecastsDec 26, 2017
2018 Annual Forecast

North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran -- as well as its own trade partners.

The main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
Annual ForecastsDec 27, 2016
2017 Annual Forecast

Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.

The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling.
Annual ForecastsDec 28, 2015
2016 Annual Forecast