Forecasts

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

Tensions between China, Russia and the West will shape a quarter marked by wars, trade disputes and consequential elections.

High inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainty will create significant political, economic, social and security risks worldwide during the third quarter.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Elections in 2024 across diverse territories and amid various socioeconomic and geopolitical contexts will collectively influence global affairs and shape international relations for the decade ahead.

The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.

The next 10 years will define the shape of the multipolar system, where competition within the traditional East and West will often be as significant as that between blocs for understanding and driving global trade, technology and management of global challenges.

The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.