Quarterly Forecasts Sep 27, 2021 | 00:00 GMTSep 27, 2021
The fourth quarter will see countries with low vaccination rates explore options to "live with COVID" rather than continue severe lockdowns in order to enable economic recovery.
Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 28, 2021 | 03:25 GMTJun 28, 2021
The third quarter will see a continuation of the global two-speed recovery according to countries' access to vaccines and the success of their vaccination campaigns.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 29, 2021 | 00:00 GMTMar 29, 2021
COVID-19 will again dominate in the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be uneven around the world.
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 28, 2020 | 11:00 GMTSep 28, 2020
The last quarter of 2020 will be a waiting game -- waiting for the results of the U.S. election in November, waiting on economic numbers, and waiting to see how the COVID-19 crisis plays out.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 29, 2020 | 00:02 GMTJun 29, 2020
While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.
Quarterly Forecasts Mar 26, 2020 | 18:27 GMTMar 26, 2020
Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.
Quarterly Forecasts Sep 22, 2019 | 22:59 GMTSep 22, 2019
The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.
Quarterly Forecasts Jun 17, 2019 | 14:35 GMTJun 17, 2019
The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.
Annual Forecasts
Annual Forecasts Jan 3, 2021 | 21:37 GMTJan 3, 2021
The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.
Annual Forecasts Dec 14, 2020 | 00:00 GMTDec 14, 2020
The world will focus on recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, coming as the U.S. inaugurates a new president seeking to restore U.S. leadership in global affairs.
Annual Forecasts Jan 6, 2020 | 00:01 GMTJan 6, 2020
Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections will shape the actions and decisions of countries around the world in 2020. A contentious election year in the United States means that even as other nations deal with their own domestic, regional and global concerns, they must take into account the opportunities and risks in decisions that overlap U.S. interests, considering the possible dramatic post-election change in U.S. posture
Annual Forecasts Dec 16, 2019 | 10:00 GMTDec 16, 2019
Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.
Annual Forecasts Dec 3, 2018 | 01:09 GMTDec 3, 2018
Great power competition is only set to intensify in 2019 and Stratfor's Annual Forecast outlines the critical issues for the coming year.
Annual Forecasts Dec 26, 2017 | 11:57 GMTDec 26, 2017
North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran -- as well as its own trade partners.
Annual Forecasts Dec 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMTDec 27, 2016
Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.
Annual Forecasts Dec 28, 2015 | 12:56 GMTDec 28, 2015
2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world. The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling. And countries around the world are more resolved than ever before to intensify their military campaigns against the Islamic State.
Decade Forecasts
Decade Forecasts Feb 12, 2020 | 02:59 GMTFeb 12, 2020
Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.
Decade Forecasts Feb 23, 2015 | 02:13 GMTFeb 23, 2015
The United States will continue to be the major economic, political and military power in the world but will be less engaged than in the past. Its low rate of exports, its increasing energy self-reliance and its experiences over the last decade will cause it to be increasingly cautious about economic and military involvement in the world.
Decade Forecasts Jan 21, 2010 | 14:27 GMTJan 21, 2010
We continue to maintain the essential forecasts made in 2005.
Decade Forecasts Feb 7, 2005 | 23:59 GMTFeb 7, 2005
The world will remain what it always has been: a dangerous place in which nation-states, and occasional non-nation-state actors, continue to struggle, compete and make war. What follows is our estimate of who the main actors will be, where the struggles will be, what sort of competition will take place and where wars might occur.
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 2000 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 2000
The fundamental question of the next decade – for both individual countries and the international system as a whole – will revolve around the United States. The question, increasingly, will be this: How can other countries limit American power and control American behavior?
Decade Forecasts Jan 1, 1995 | 06:00 GMTJan 1, 1995
The decade ending 2005 will be marked by two contradictory trends. On one hand it will be a period of unprecedented global economic prosperity and growth. On the other hand, it will become a period of increasing fragmentation and tension in the international system. As in the period prior to World War I, prosperity and instability will go hand in hand.
