Forecasts

Quarterly Forecasts

Quarterly ForecastsSep 26, 2022
2022 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

A lingering energy crisis and monetary tightening will negatively impact economic activity across the world in the fourth quarter, leading to heightened social, political and economic risk.

A handful of wheat, Ukainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Protest in Chile
Quarterly ForecastsJun 27, 2022
2022 Third-Quarter Forecast

High inflation, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical uncertainty will create significant political, economic, social and security risks worldwide during the third quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 28, 2022
2022 Second-Quarter Forecast

The war in Ukraine, energy and food inflation and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will create political, economic, security and social risk around the world during the second quarter.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 27, 2021
2021 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsJun 28, 2021
2021 Third-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsMar 29, 2021
2021 Second-Quarter Forecast

COVID-19 will again dominate in the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be uneven around the world.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 28, 2020
2020 Fourth-Quarter Forecast
Quarterly ForecastsJun 29, 2020
2020 Third-Quarter Forecast

While many of the trends identified in our annual forecast remain slowed down by COVID-19, their pace is picking up as countries carefully emerge from lockdown.

Quarterly ForecastsMar 26, 2020
2020 Second-Quarter Forecast

Many of the trends identified in our annual forecast will slow down or be on hold as governments scramble to adapt to a post-COVID reality.

Quarterly ForecastsSep 22, 2019
2019 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

The quarter will be defined by the threat of a conflict with Iran that disrupts oil supplies while the global economy nervously anticipates the next turn in the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility of an ugly U.K.-EU divorce.

Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast focuses on the most important factors affecting the international system this quarter.
Quarterly ForecastsJun 17, 2019
2019 Third-Quarter Forecast

The United States will remain at the center of world events this quarter as its strategic competition with China escalates, relations with Iran deteriorate and the threat of tariffs or sanctions loom over all.

A composite pictures shows a collection of images representative of key themes and trends that will play out in the second quarter of 2019.
Quarterly ForecastsMar 10, 2019
2019 Second-Quarter Forecast

Annual Forecasts

Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2022
2022 Annual Forecast

We expect most of the world to adopt a "live-with-COVID" strategy that seeks to keep economies as open as possible and to avoid the recession-provoking policies of 2020 and parts of 2021.

A stack of shipping containers at a port
Annual ForecastsDec 20, 2021
2022 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

The next year will see slower economic growth and more cyberattacks worldwide, along with increased Western tensions with China, Iran and Russia.

An image of the COVID-19 vaccine, President-elect Joe Biden, the Huawei logo, and a stock market sign
Annual ForecastsJan 3, 2021
2021 Annual Forecast

The geopolitical environment in 2021 will be shaped by two global developments: the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts by U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's administration to restore collaborative relationships across the globe.

Annual ForecastsDec 14, 2020
2021 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview
Annual ForecastsJan 6, 2020
2020 Annual Forecast
Annual ForecastsDec 16, 2019
2020 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Governments deciding how to approach global trade and economic uncertainty will home in on the U.S. presidential election in 2020 as they try to gauge Washington's future course.

In Stratfor's 2019 Annual Forecast we explore the critical factors that will influence the global system in the year ahead.
Annual ForecastsDec 3, 2018
2019 Annual Forecast
Though the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula can't be ruled out, the United States will probably try to avoid a costly preventive strike against the North's nuclear weapons program that would plunge the global economy back into recession.
Annual ForecastsDec 26, 2017
2018 Annual Forecast

North Korea's likely achievement of a viable nuclear deterrent next year will give rise to a new and more unstable era of containment. As the specter of war looms in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia will band together while the United States cracks down even harder on Iran -- as well as its own trade partners.

The main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
Annual ForecastsDec 27, 2016
2017 Annual Forecast

Long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.

The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling.
Annual ForecastsDec 28, 2015
2016 Annual Forecast

2016 is shaping up to be an unsettling year for much of the world. The United States and Russia are still locked in an intractable standoff. Nationalism is resurfacing in Europe. The price of oil and other commodities are low. Chinese consumption is falling. And countries around the world are more resolved than ever before to intensify their military campaigns against the Islamic State.

2014 was the year in which the world was finally shaken out of complacency. Ukraine triggered Russia's inevitable confrontation with the United States and Europe. Economic malaise in Europe became impossible to ignore. An intensifying anti-corruption drive in China exposed how far and deep the Chinese leadership is willing to go manage dissent.
Annual ForecastsJan 12, 2015
2015 Annual Forecast

As we look at what 2015 holds in store, we know the oil markets are oversupplied, Europe and China will continue to stagnate, and Russia will work under heavy constraints to deny the West a strong foothold in crucial areas of its periphery while the rest of the world deals with the repercussions of these trends. The ebb and flow of this tumult is covered in the forecast that follows.

A Tesco distribution plant in December 2014 in Reading, England. In the lead up to Christmas, Tesco's busiest time of the year, 13,000 staff worked around the clock at 28 distribution centers across the United Kingdom.
Annual ForecastsJan 6, 2014
2014 Annual Forecast