Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ethiopia

Egypt

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

In the coming decade, water scarcity will likely contribute to the erosion of Egypt's economic and political independence, including its ability to act unilaterally against other countries vying for water along the Nile basin.

The Geopolitics of Water: The Threat to Egypt's Independence

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 16, 2025

Snapshots

United Kingdom

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

Economics

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Iran

Israel

Syria

China

Europe

Russia

Cyber

Military & Security

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Trump's fiscal, deregulation and trade policies may initially boost U.S. economic growth, but potentially to the detriment of the rest of the world.

What To Expect From Trump's Economic Policies

Mozambique

Mexico

South Korea

Security personnel walk on a road with buses blocking an entrance gate to protect impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from a possible second arrest in Seoul on Jan. 6. If Yoon is not arrested, the opposition could again seek to impeach the country's acting president due to his insufficient support for the arrest efforts, worsening foreign perceptions of political instability in South Korea.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

Ukraine

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters is seen on March 27, 2020, in Washington, D.C. 

The partial privatization of state- and military-owned assets will increase Egypt's foreign currency reserves, but it will likely only somewhat boost productivity and business competition.

IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt's Privatization Efforts

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Algeria

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 9, 2025

Latest

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

South Sudan

Central African Republic

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

A Rwandan soldier walks in front of a burned truck near Palma in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region on Sept. 22, 2021. 

Rwanda’s expanding troop deployments in other African countries seek to enhance its regional political and economic influence, but entail risks that could harm its operations and reputation.

Rwanda's Growing Military Influence in Africa: Opportunities and Risks

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

While it may de-escalate the current war, the deal does not address all drivers of conflict between Hamas and Israel, nor does it outline a post-war strategy for Gaza, portending a gradual return to violence.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

U.S.-China Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

Malaysia announced plans to reform its anti-dumping legislation to counter an influx of cheap Chinese goods, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 17.

Malaysia, Indonesia: Chinese Dumping Undermines Regional Trade Amid Growing Economic Pressure

A Pakistani court sentenced former Prime Minister Imran Khan to 14 years in prison in a land corruption case, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

Science & Technology

The European nonprofit privacy group noyb, an acronym for "none of your business," filed six complaints against AliExpress, Shein, TikTok, Temu, WeChat and Xiaomi for unlawfully transferring European users' data to China, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.

Europe: Noyb Files Complaints Against Six Chinese Companies

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that includes cooperation on trade, defense, culture and science, though specific details were not publicized, AP reported on Jan. 17.

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a free speech argument filed by Chinese-based TikTok owner ByteDance, upholding a law that will require the Chinese company to divest itself from the social media platform or face a nationwide ban by Jan. 19, NBC News reported on Jan. 17. 

U.S.: Supreme Court Upholds Law Paving Way for TikTok Ban

The European Union and Mexico updated their free trade agreement and enhanced bilateral trade and investments by slashing tariffs on agricultural and food products and eliminating non-tariff barriers to establish a level playing field in each other's markets, a press release by the European Commission showed on Jan. 17.

EU, Mexico: Revamped Trade Agreement To Move Forward, Pending Ratification

South Africa

Executive chair of the International Steel Fabricators of South Africa Neels van Niekerk warned that up to 100,000 jobs could be lost in the country if steel manufacturing corporation ArcelorMittal halted its local production of long steel at the end of January as planned, News24 reported on Jan. 16.

South Africa: Concerns Mount as ArcelorMittal Prepares To Stop Long-Steel Production

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Togo

Togolese Foreign Affairs Minister Robert Dussey refused to rule out Togo joining the Alliance of Sahel States, which Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso formed in light of their upcoming departure from the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, Jeune Afrique reported on Jan. 16.

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

Hungary

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called for the European Union to lift sanctions against Russia, asserting that the incoming U.S. Trump administration would usher in a "new era" of sanctions-free relations with Russia, though he acknowledged such a shift would not come immediately, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 17, citing Orban's remarks to state radio.

Hungary: Orban Calls for End to EU Sanctions on Russia

Israel's security Cabinet voted to approve the three-phase ceasefire deal with Hamas, with the full Cabinet set to vote on Jan. 18, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 17. 

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Malaysia, Indonesia: Chinese Dumping Undermines Regional Trade Amid Growing Economic Pressure

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

Europe: Noyb Files Complaints Against Six Chinese Companies

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

U.S.: Supreme Court Upholds Law Paving Way for TikTok Ban

EU, Mexico: Revamped Trade Agreement To Move Forward, Pending Ratification

South Africa: Concerns Mount as ArcelorMittal Prepares To Stop Long-Steel Production

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

Hungary: Orban Calls for End to EU Sanctions on Russia

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

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