Assessments

United States

Egypt

Iraq

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with its Crew Dragon capsule launches from Launch Complex 39A during Axiom's third private mission at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, on Jan. 18, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote in Indonesia, U.S.-Iraq Military Negotiations and a U.S. Moon Mission

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 8, 2024

Snapshots

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Argentina

Brazil

Colombia

El Salvador

Mexico

Panama

Peru

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

Economics

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Finland

Sweden

Norway

Russia

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

The three candidates running in Indonesia's 2024 presidential race -- Anies Baswedan (left), Prabowo Subianto (center) and Ganjar Pranowo (right) -- attend a debate in Jakarta on Feb. 4, 2024. 

Outgoing President Jokowi's efforts to consolidate power and his preferred successor's history of authoritarianism risk eroding the rule of law in the world's third-largest democracy.

Previewing Indonesia's Presidential Election

Different currency exchanges are seen outside the Mexican Stock Exchange building at Reforma Avenue in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2024. 

Mexico and Brazil are better positioned to take advantage of falling U.S. interest rates than Argentina, where political and economic uncertainty will remain high as its new president's reforms are tested.

How Will Changing Global Conditions Impact Latin America's Largest Economies?

United Kingdom

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

A photo taken on Jan. 20, 2024, shows cars driving by campaign billboard posters in Sao Pedro do Estoril, Portugal, ahead of the country's March 10 parliamentary elections. 

Social Issues

Of the various European countries holding elections this year, Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Romania and the U.K.'s votes have the potential to yield the most drastic leadership and policy changes.

Previewing Europe's 2024 National Elections

Media

China

Podcasts

Cyber

How effective are Washignton's campaigns against foreign cyber espionage?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S. Efforts To Combat China's Hacking Campaign

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

Germany

Pakistan

A picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Yunis during an Israeli bombardment on Feb. 2, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: A Potential Gaza Cease-Fire, Elections in Pakistan and El Salvador

U.S.-Iran Relations

Latest

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a political rally in Manila on Jan. 28, 2024. 

Energy

Duterte's growing political dispute with his successor could reignite secessionist sentiment on the Mindanao island and derail efforts to attract investment and maintain close U.S. ties.

Tensions Flare Between the Philippines' Current and Former Presidents

Boris Nadezhdin, the Civic Initiative Party presidential hopeful, speaks to journalists following a meeting at the Central Election Commission in Moscow on Feb. 8, 2024. 

The Kremlin's move to bar opposition candidate Boris Nadezhdin from running in the 2024 presidential election confirms Kremlin fears of opening the door to anti-war dissent.

Fearing Normalization of Anti-War Sentiments, Kremlin Excludes Opposition Candidate From Presidential Ballot

Senegal

An opposition supporter reacts in front of a burning barricade during demonstrations in Dakar, Senegal, on Feb. 4, 2024, after President Macky Sall announced the postponement of the presidential election. 

The postponement will extend President Sall's term by nearly a year, casting doubt over Senegal's political future, as well as ECOWAS' ability to deter such power grabs in the region.

In Senegal, an Election Delay Fuels Fears of Democratic Backsliding

Ukraine

Ukraine's military chief Valery Zaluzhny is seen on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

The commander-in-chief's dismissal would risk undermining national unity while doing little to aid Kyiv's war effort, and appears largely driven by difficult questions over further mobilization measures.

What To Make of Zelensky's Alleged Plan To Remove Ukraine's Top General

Hong Kong SAR, China

People in Hong Kong wave Chinese flags in celebration of the 26th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover from Britain to China on July 1, 2023. 

New national security provisions will further erode Hong Kong's status as a safe haven for China-facing businesses, while impeding Western efforts to mitigate competition with China.

China's Campaign To Curb Foreign Influence Comes to Hong Kong

Venezuela

Maria Corina Machado, the leading opposition candidate in Venezuela's 2024 presidential race, speaks to supporters during a rally in Caracas on Jan. 23, 2024. 

The move to bar Machado from the 2024 presidential race could see the U.S. reimpose harsh sanctions on Caracas, but this is unlikely to keep Maduro from quelching threats to his power.

In Venezuela, an Opposition Candidate's Disqualification Dims Hopes for Free and Fair Elections

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan (center) attends a mini-summit on the sidelines of the 36th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb.17, 2023.

The opposition party's demands for greater reforms risk triggering a security crackdown that would harm Tanzania's new image as a safe and stable investment destination.

Opposition Rallies Test Tanzania's Commitment to Political Liberalization

India

People line up to view a statue of Rama, a Hindu deity, at the newly consecrated Ram Temple on Jan. 23, 2024, in Ayodhya, India. 

The inauguration of the historically charged Hindu temple is a major win for Modi's party, which had defended its construction for decades, and will likely help it secure another term in India's April-May general elections.

In India, the Ram Temple's Consecration Is Set to Boost Modi's Re-Election Bid

The growing patchwork of local laws in the U.S. will pose compliance challenges for companies operating across state lines.

In the Absence of a Federal Framework, U.S. States Enact Their Own Data Privacy Laws

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

South Africa

Turkey

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

France

Poland

Spain

Italy

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Palestinian Hamas militants are seen during a military show in Gaza City, Gaza, on July 20, 2017.

Without a central geography to anchor the group, there may be deepening rifts between Hamas' Doha-based politicians, its surviving militants in the West Bank and Gaza, and its fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

The Future of Hamas Without Gaza

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Science & Technology

Guyana

Venezuela has steadily been building up its military capabilities on the Anacoco Island, an area immediately adjacent to Guyana's Essequibo region that Venezuela also claims, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 9.

Venezuela, Guyana: Military Buildup on Edge of Essequibo Region Threatens Conflict

Haiti

Thousands of Haitians protested for three days to call for Prime Minister and acting President Ariel Henry's removal from office, AP reported on Feb. 8.

Haiti: Haitians Protest as Promised Date for New Government Passes

Lebanon

Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border remain high after the Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah launched at least 30 rockets into Israel in retaliation for an Israeli drone strike that targeted two Hezbollah members in Nabatieh, Lebanon, The Times of Israel reported on Feb. 8. 

Lebanon, Israel: Tensions on Border Remain High After Hezbollah Rocket Launches, Israeli Drone Strike

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told parliament that he is undertaking "various, concrete" efforts to hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, The Mainichi Shimbun reported on Feb. 9.

Japan, North Korea: Tokyo Making Efforts To Hold Summit With Pyongyang

The initial results of Pakistan's parliamentary elections indicate that independent candidates associated with the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, are unexpectedly edging ahead, trailed by competitors from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party and the Pakistan People's Party, Al Jazeera reported on Feb. 9. 

Pakistan: PTI Independents Exceed Expectations as Results Trickle In

Slovakia

Slovakia's parliament approved fast-tracked reforms softening punishments for a series of financial crimes and abolishing a special prosecution office dealing with high-level corruption cases, despite ongoing public demonstrations in the country and criticism from the European Commission, Reuters reported on Feb. 8.

Slovakia: Controversial Judicial Reform Paves Way for Rule-of-Law Dispute With EU

Dozens of protesters blocked the exits to the Palace of Justice in Bogota, preventing Supreme Court justices and media personnel from leaving the premises for several hours before police intervened to disperse the protests with tear gas, El Pais reported Feb. 8.

Colombia: Protesters Blockade Exits to Palace of Justice After Failed Attorney General Vote

Netherlands

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

Mauritania

Morocco

The European Union will grant 210 million euros to Mauritania through the end of 2024 to support the country's efforts in curbing migration to the Canary Islands, Euractiv reported Feb. 9.

Mauritania, Spain, EU: EU and Spain to Provide Over 500 Million Euros to Mauritania to Curb Migration 

Brazil's police announced that former President Jair Bolsonaro was the target of an investigation seeking to determine responsibility for an alleged coup attempt following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's victory in the October 2022 presidential elections, The New York Times reported on Feb. 8.

Brazil: Bolsonaro Must Hand Over Passport in Coup Probe

Myanmar

India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced an immediate suspension of the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar, citing rising migration that has allegedly exacerbated security concerns, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 8.

India: New Delhi Ends Free Movement Regime With Myanmar

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Tensions Flare Between the Philippines' Current and Former Presidents

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Venezuela, Guyana: Military Buildup on Edge of Essequibo Region Threatens Conflict

Haiti: Haitians Protest as Promised Date for New Government Passes

Lebanon, Israel: Tensions on Border Remain High After Hezbollah Rocket Launches, Israeli Drone Strike

Japan, North Korea: Tokyo Making Efforts To Hold Summit With Pyongyang

Pakistan: PTI Independents Exceed Expectations as Results Trickle In

Slovakia: Controversial Judicial Reform Paves Way for Rule-of-Law Dispute With EU

Colombia: Protesters Blockade Exits to Palace of Justice After Failed Attorney General Vote

Mauritania, Spain, EU: EU and Spain to Provide Over 500 Million Euros to Mauritania to Curb Migration

Brazil: Bolsonaro Must Hand Over Passport in Coup Probe

India: New Delhi Ends Free Movement Regime With Myanmar

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