Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 19, 2026

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Europe

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Indonesia

Vietnam

Slovakia

Hungary

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Bangladesh

A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.

The transition from an interim administration will likely restore political stability, though social and fiscal pressures will still pose constraints for the new center-right government.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

Energy

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Snapshots

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Cuba

Mexico

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Latest

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The national flag of Algeria flies near the Bay of Algiers against the backdrop of the old town known as the Casbah and cargo containers in Algiers, Algeria, on Aug. 25, 2022.

Divergences between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are poised to grow and may lead to a diplomatic break.

Algeria's Grievances With the UAE Deepen Amid Strategic Divergences

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Turkey

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

China

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Armenia

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said Russia will permanently strengthen customs-style controls on goods imported from fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, Inbusiness.kz reported on Feb. 19.

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Over 40 countries' representatives met in Washington for the first meeting of U.S. President Donald Trump's Board of Peace, which will oversee aid distribution and reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, AP reported on Feb. 19.

U.S.: Washington Hosts First Board of Peace Summit

Peru

Peru's Congress voted 64-46 to elect legislator Jose Maria Balcazar as the country's new interim president late on Feb. 18, making him the country's eighth president since 2016, Reuters reported the same day. 

Peru: Congress Votes In Left-Wing Interim President

Taiwan

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt on Feb. 18 declined to comment on a reporter's question about U.S. President Donald Trump's claim on Feb. 16 that he had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping about arms sales to Taiwan and that they would make a determination on the matter soon, the South China Morning Post reported on Feb. 19. 

U.S., Taiwan, China: Trump Considering Delaying Arms Sales to Taiwan

Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu signed the Electoral Act Amendment bill 2026 into law, formalizing revisions to the country's electoral framework ahead of the 2027 general election, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 19. 

Nigeria: President Signs Controversial Electoral Law

A general strike against the government's labor reform proposal has led to the suspension of nearly all buses, trains, flights and underground services in Argentina, La Nacion reported on Feb. 19.

Argentina: General Strike Causes Operational Disruption, but Unlikely To Block Labor Reform Approval

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu signed an executive order on Feb. 13 directing all oil and gas entitlements owed to the Nigerian government to be directly paid into the country's Federation Account as opposed to some of these funds being directed to state-owned companies and government agencies, Reuters reported on Feb. 19.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Directs All Hydrocarbon Revenue to Federation Account 

Mauritius

U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his opposition to the United Kingdom handing over the island of Diego Garcia, located in the Chagos Archipelago, to Mauritius in a Truth Social post, where he said that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer "should not lose control, for any reason, of Diego Garcia," Reuters reported on Feb. 18.

Mauritius, U.K.: Trump Reiterates Opposition to Chagos Island Deal, Contradicting the State Department

Fifteen of 31 lawmakers under the Poland 2050 party, a centrist member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ruling coalition, announced that they were breaking away following a contentious party leadership contest concluded on Jan. 31, citing dissatisfaction with newly elected leader and EU funds minister Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, Notes From Poland reported on Feb. 18.

Poland: Ruling Coalition Party Poland 2050 Splits but Leaves Tusk's Majority Intact

Algeria and France agreed to restore security cooperation following the Feb. 16-17 visit of France's Interior Minister Laurent Nunez to Algiers, where he met with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, AFP reported on Feb. 18.

Algeria, France: Governments To Resume Security Cooperation

Science & Technology

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

U.S.: Washington Hosts First Board of Peace Summit

Peru: Congress Votes In Left-Wing Interim President

U.S., Taiwan, China: Trump Considering Delaying Arms Sales to Taiwan

Nigeria: President Signs Controversial Electoral Law

Argentina: General Strike Causes Operational Disruption, but Unlikely To Block Labor Reform Approval

Nigeria: President Tinubu Directs All Hydrocarbon Revenue to Federation Account

Mauritius, U.K.: Trump Reiterates Opposition to Chagos Island Deal, Contradicting the State Department

Poland: Ruling Coalition Party Poland 2050 Splits but Leaves Tusk's Majority Intact

Algeria, France: Governments To Resume Security Cooperation

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