In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast, Stratfor analysts Fred Burton and Adriano Bosoni discuss the United Kingdom's upcoming exit from the European Union on Jan. 31, and the likely complex trade negotiations between Brussels and London that will follow.
Turkey's threat to kick the U.S. military out of a key base could put the wider region on a slippery slope toward nuclear proliferation.
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
Accelerating economic deterioration and continued political paralysis are beginning to manifest in more extreme expressions of protest anger.
By Ryan Bohl
Though oil markets have calmed since the U.S. strike against the Iranian general, the potential for a massive price move in the event of a major, lasting disruption remains.
By Greg Priddy
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events the Stratfor team is tracking.
The late Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said propelled his country into modernity; it's up to his successor to guide it to a future of geopolitical stability.
By Ryan Bohl
The Naval Update Map shows the approximate current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, based on available open-source information.
Should hostile U.S.-Iran relations keep the prospect of a regional war alive, states along the Persian Gulf will be among the first to suffer the economic consequences, as well as potential physical attacks.
With the West souring on Myanmar over its treatment of the Rohingya, China is positioned to make more inroads into its southern neighbor.
Turkey's threat to kick the U.S. military out of a key base could put the wider region on a slippery slope toward nuclear proliferation.
Increasingly intense fire seasons threaten to leave Australia’s vital agriculture industry in ashes and engulf the government’s pro-energy policies in political controversy.
A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.
Accelerating economic deterioration and continued political paralysis are beginning to manifest in more extreme expressions of protest anger.
By Ryan Bohl
Though oil markets have calmed since the U.S. strike against the Iranian general, the potential for a massive price move in the event of a major, lasting disruption remains.
By Greg Priddy
China’s growing regional dominance is driving India to bolster its own economic, security and political ties in Southeast Asia. But unlike Beijing, New Delhi lacks the deep pockets or military might to pursue its “Act East” agenda alone.
Stay informed about the significant meetings and events the Stratfor team is tracking.
The late Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said propelled his country into modernity; it's up to his successor to guide it to a future of geopolitical stability.
By Ryan Bohl
The phase one deal gives President Trump a bit of a victory, but significant issues remain on enforcement and implementation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to shape a political system that continues his legacy via a powerful political body, not powerful individuals.
France, Germany and the U.K. initiated the accord's dispute resolution mechanism to try to force Tehran back into compliance and negotiations. But the move could prompt the return of U.N. sanctions.
While the truce could put the Libyan National Army's push to seize the capital on hold, it raises the risk that oil exports will be used as a negotiating tool.
The landslide win for the incumbent president indicates that the mainland's continued hard-line approach to Taipei could deepen nationalist sentiment on the island.
While Trump did not signal an immediate military response to Iran's latest strikes, his call for a broader coalition against Tehran suggests the U.S. recognizes sanctions' declining usefulness.
While the current crisis could ease if the White House doesn't respond militarily, the long-term risks for another escalatory confrontation remain high.
The action represents a significant escalation by Tehran, increasing the likelihood of an American response.
Several recent seizures of homemade explosives have stoked fears that protesters may start using bombs to voice their political grievances. But doing so would also risk blowing up the movement's remaining shreds of legitimacy.
By Ben West
The drug cartels have the means and the opportunity to use vehicle bombs in their battles with rivals and police, but their desire to avoid blowback has held them back.
While potential Iranian terrorism is a cause for concern, it is no reason to panic.
2019 set a record for mass public attacks in the U.S., though the toll could have been much worse had concerned citizens not alerted authorities to suspicious activity or behaviors before it was too late.
Falling victim to crime can make business operations unprofitable, but cooperating with criminals can prove even more costly.
From disruptive protests in Hong Kong and across Latin America to Russia's and China's increasingly sophisticated espionage tactics, see an excerpt of what threats our security analysts are keeping a close eye on in the year ahead.
U.S. efforts to cajole countries to buy American weapons by brandishing sanctions could end up driving potential arms customers into the Kremlin's arms.
By Omar Lamrani
Being resilient isn't about avoiding or ignoring threats, but ensuring employees know what risks they may encounter on the job -- and which ones are worth taking.
Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.
In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.
Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.
In this short video South Asia Analyst Faisel Pervaiz discusses three events to watch for in the week.
Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.
The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.
By Lino Miani
By sending Turkish troops to defend Libya's U.N.-backed government, President Erdogan hopes to force a cease-fire that will protect his country's oil and gas interests in the Mediterranean and burnish his regional reputation.
By Sinan Ciddi
While there are few obvious historical analogies for the political crisis Britain's scheduled exit from the European Union has precipitated, there is one suggestive parallel -- and it prompts some sobering thoughts.
By Ian Morris
Technology has driven a number of recent major energy finds, but discovery does not always mean that production will follow.
Whether and how people celebrate Christmas is clearly a complicated affair, bearing only a subtle relationship to Christianity itself. The contemporary, increasingly international version of Christmas is less a religious festival than a celebration of affluence, modernity, and above all Westernness. Without anyone willing it, Christmas has become part of a package of Western soft power.
By Ian Morris
The world's stronger powers hold the upper hand over its weaker ones but the underdogs may find a few "stones" to help them hold their own.
Beijing has made a point of publicizing legal changes since a Chinese scientist claimed to have genetically engineered twins last year, but it's not clear how effective the reforms will be without a full accounting of the scandal.
The Maduro regime's efforts to meddle in its political affairs of its Latin American neighbors fits neatly into Moscow's objectives.
States, businesses and individuals, eager to avoid duties and political frictions and penalties, are increasingly using commercial transactions to disguise illicit money transfers.
From Hong Kong to Chile to Lebanon, mass protests are breaking out as governments defend a status quo that many people increasingly reject.
Achieving the balance of prosperity and sustainability is a goal of nearly every country, but it takes stability and the right mix of policies to get the job done.
