Media

United States

Podcasts

Economics

Politics

What is the current sentiment toward the economy?

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on the U.S. Economy

Saudi Arabia

Has Saudi Arabia accomplished its Vision 2030 goals?

Essential Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Assessments

Kenya

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

A special session of the U.N. General Assembly is held on the Palestinian bid for full membership to the United Nations at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on May 10, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mexico Ratifies a Controversial Judicial Reform, the U.N. Votes on a Palestinian Resolution

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Europe

A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.

Cyber

In the second part of this series, we explore Iran's attempts to steal information, silence critics, and disrupt Western critical infrastructure and organizations via damaging cyberattacks and espionage campaigns.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2

U.S.-Iran Relations

In the first of this two-part series, we explore Iran's attempts to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election and heighten anti-Israel sentiments via online influence campaigns and cyberattacks.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 12, 2024

Snapshots

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Social Issues

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Latest

Myanmar

Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ethnic armed organization train March 8, 2023, in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. 

In Myanmar, the resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Myanmar Rebels Put the Junta on the Defensive in Its Heartland

Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka's presidential elections, differing views on the country's agreement with the International Monetary Fund and austerity measures, social issues involving Tamils and Muslims, and balancing relations with India and China heighten the risk of social unrest, delays in financial support, and uncertainty in economic planning and reforms, while the new president's insufficient support in Parliament may delay policy. 

Sri Lankan Presidential Candidates Face an Electorate Upset by the Economy

Global Elections

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Energy

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

Lebanon

Syria

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

Environment, Science & Technology

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

Netherlands

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

U.S.-China Relations

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Thailand

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Science & Technology

Mali

Al Qaeda-affiliated group Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, claimed responsibility for attacks on the Faladie military camp and a military base at the Modibo Keita International Airport (also known as Bamako-Senou International Airport), Reuters reported on Sept. 17.

Mali: Jihadists Target Military Camp and Other Sites in Capital

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared the Venezuelan criminal group Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist group, increasing government resources for combatting the group and penalties against members, The Texas Tribune reported on Sept. 16.

U.S.: Texas Governor Declares Tren de Aragua a Terrorist Group

South Sudan

Sudan

South Sudan and the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, unveiled a joint security plan to ensure South Sudan resumes crude oil exports through the Petrodar pipeline, which connects oil fields in South Sudan's Upper Nile state to Port Sudan, Sudan Tribune reported on Sept. 16. 

Sudan, South Sudan: Juba Reaches Deal With SAF To Resume Crude Oil Exports

Chad

Niger

Nigeria

Floods across Western and Central Africa caused by unusually high rainfall have displaced at least 4 million people since late August, including at least 2.9 million people in Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Mali, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 17.

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

United Arab Emirates

Australia

Australia and the United Arab Emirates reached a trade deal that will remove a wide range of tariffs and encourage Emirati investment in Australia's critical minerals and clean energy sectors, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Sept. 17.

Australia, UAE: Countries Strike Free Trade Agreement

Argentina

Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2025 budget proposal promising to deliver a primary surplus of 1.3% of gross domestic product and lower the nominal deficit to zero after interest payments, La Nacion reported on Sept. 16.

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

Taiwan

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai pledged to speed up the review process by examining two recent incidents of boats with Chinese nationals sailing to Taiwan's shore without the military's notice, Taipei Times reported on Sept. 17. 

Taiwan, China: Second Coastal Breach Highlights Security Issues

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

A mass attack on pagers belonging to members of Lebanon's political and militant group Hezbollah injured up to 1,000 members and civilians, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry on Sept. 17, and Iranian state media reported that Iran's ambassador to Lebanon was also injured. 

Israel, Lebanon: Many Hezbollah Members Injured in Attack on Pagers

Israel's War Cabinet added the safe return of civilians to northern Israel as a formal war goal, adding to the existing goals of defeating the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza and replacing the group with a new government, Reuters reported on Sept. 17. 

Israel: War Cabinet To Prioritize Northern Security Amid Possible Replacement of Defense Minister

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Estonia

Spain

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled her team of Commissioners, a press release by the Commission shows Sept. 17. 

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Jihadists Target Military Camp and Other Sites in Capital

U.S.: Texas Governor Declares Tren de Aragua a Terrorist Group

Sudan, South Sudan: Juba Reaches Deal With SAF To Resume Crude Oil Exports

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

Australia, UAE: Countries Strike Free Trade Agreement

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

Taiwan, China: Second Coastal Breach Highlights Security Issues

Israel, Lebanon: Many Hezbollah Members Injured in Attack on Pagers

Israel: War Cabinet To Prioritize Northern Security Amid Possible Replacement of Defense Minister

EU: Von der Leyen Unveils New European Commission

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