Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 19, 2026

Malaysia

A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.

Energy

Politics

While fuel subsidies have so far cushioned the impact, if the Iran-related energy disruptions persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support before the next election.

Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda

Japan

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.

Economics

Global Trade

Military & Security

The Japanese prime minister may offer economic and security concessions during her upcoming summit with the U.S. president to avoid direct entanglement in the Iran conflict while preserving the relationship with Washington.

Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iran

Europe

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. 

A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships from Iranian attacks would likely begin only after the war's intensity decreases, and even then, it would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited return of maritime traffic through the strait.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Israel

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

China

Ukraine

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

Media

Podcasts

What will happen to U.S. interest rates if the war continues?

The Decision Advantage: Economic Impacts of the War on Iran

Saudi Arabia

Pakistan

A digital illustration of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s national flags.

Despite having a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will likely only provide the kingdom with low-level defensive and technical support, rather than direct military intervention against Iran, due to various constraints.

In a War With Iran, the Pakistani-Saudi Defense Pact Has Limits 

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

Limited commando raids are Trump's most viable option, as larger ground incursions in Iran would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support.

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

Latest

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

United Arab Emirates

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Greenland

Denmark

Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.

The upcoming parliamentary elections could result in three distinct coalitions that would offer varying continuity in domestic economic policy and Copenhagen's approach to U.S. pressure over Greenland.

Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Baghdad declared force majeure on foreign-operated oil fields after disruptions to maritime shipping via the Strait of Hormuz forced Iraq to cut oil production, Reuters reported on March 21. 

Iraq: Baghdad Declares Force Majeure on Foreign-Operated Oil Fields

Jordan

Qatar

Ukraine deployed military specialists and interception units to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan to help protect critical and civilian infrastructure from Iranian drone attacks, Reuters reported on March 20.

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv Deploys Counter-Drone Units to the Middle East

Cyber

Science & Technology

The Trump administration on March 20 issued a national artificial intelligence framework focused on six key areas: protections for children, infrastructure resilience, fair use for creative works, free speech, innovation and workforce development.

U.S.: White House Unveils AI Framework

Colombia

U.S. federal prosecutors are conducting at least two separate investigations into Colombian President Gustavo Petro over alleged meetings with drug traffickers and whether his presidential campaign solicited funds from criminals, The New York Times reported on March 20.

U.S., Colombia: U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Petro Over Connections With Drug Traffickers

Kenya

More shipping vessels are docking at the Kenyan port of Lamu amid Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about a new escalation by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported on March 19.

Kenya: Lamu Port Emerges as Transshipment Hub Amid Hormuz Strait Closure

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

The chiefs of staff of the French, Ivorian and Beninese militaries discussed jihadist activity in northern Benin and Cote d'Ivoire and strengthening trilateral counterterrorism cooperation on March 19, Radio France Internationale reported on March 20.

West Africa: France, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire To Deepen Counterterrorism Coordination

Myanmar

Myanmar's military-backed parliament announced it will begin selecting a new president on March 30 under the 2008 constitution, Reuters reported on March 20.

Myanmar: Junta Advances Managed Civilian Transition Through Presidential Selection Process

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and pressed her to expand Japan's security role in the Strait of Hormuz, and while Takaichi declined to commit direct military involvement, she left open limited non-combat support, The Asahi Shimbun reported on March 20.

Japan, U.S.: Trump-Takaichi Summit Deepens Industrial Ties but Highlights Limits to Security Cooperation

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference that Iran no longer has the capabilities to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, two of Israel's main war goals, Reuters reported on March 19.

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Claims Iran Is Unable To Enrich Uranium, Produce Ballistic Missiles

Chad

Haiti

Chad plans to deploy 800 police officers and gendarmes to Haiti by June as part of a U.N.-backed international Gang Suppression Force aimed at supporting Haitian authorities against powerful armed gangs, Reuters reported on March 20.

Chad: 800 Troops To Be Deployed to Haiti

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iraq: Baghdad Declares Force Majeure on Foreign-Operated Oil Fields

Ukraine, MENA: Kyiv Deploys Counter-Drone Units to the Middle East

U.S.: White House Unveils AI Framework

U.S., Colombia: U.S. Prosecutors Investigate Petro Over Connections With Drug Traffickers

Kenya: Lamu Port Emerges as Transshipment Hub Amid Hormuz Strait Closure

West Africa: France, Benin, Cote d'Ivoire To Deepen Counterterrorism Coordination

Myanmar: Junta Advances Managed Civilian Transition Through Presidential Selection Process

Japan, U.S.: Trump-Takaichi Summit Deepens Industrial Ties but Highlights Limits to Security Cooperation

Israel, Iran: Netanyahu Claims Iran Is Unable To Enrich Uranium, Produce Ballistic Missiles

Chad: 800 Troops To Be Deployed to Haiti

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