Assessments

Kenya

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Taiwan

Europe

Spain

Ireland

Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cambodia

China

Vietnam

The Mekong River and Tonle Sap River meet at Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

Economics

The project will substantially reduce Cambodia's trade dependence on Vietnam, while contributing to China's broader geopolitical goal of constructing a global network of friendly ports.

Cambodia's Funan Techo Canal Marks a Loss for Vietnam and a Win for China

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 16, 2024

Media

Podcasts

How might recent resignations affect Vietnam's 2026 elections?

Essential Geopolitics: Political Instability in Vietnam

Columns

On Geopolitics

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Egypt

The sun sets behind high voltage transmission towers along a highway in El-Shorouk, about 47 kilometers outside the city center of Cairo, on July 24, 2023. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Egypt will struggle to increase its gas supplies and expand its renewable energy sector to keep up with the electricity needs of the country's growing population, portending more power cuts in the coming years.

Egypt's Energy Crisis Isn't Going Anywhere

Snapshots

Georgia

Russia

Georgian students protest the government's controversial ''foreign agents'' bill in Tbilisi on May 13, 2024. 

While the bill's passage may increase and radicalize supporters of the pro-Western opposition, the ruling GD party is still favored to win upcoming elections, ensuring the country's continued reorientation toward Russia.

Georgia Is Set To Adopt Its Controversial 'Foreign Agents' Bill. What Now?

Senegal

Bassirou Diomaye Faye gives an address as Senegal's president at an exhibition center in the new town of Diamniadio near the capital Dakar on April 2, 2024.

Senegal's young new president will likely slow-walk his plans to renegotiate contracts with energy companies, but this could deny him access to the funding he needs to pursue his economic pledges.

Will Senegal's New President Overhaul Its Oil and Gas Sector?

Australia

Solomon Islands

The Solomon Islands' newly elected prime minister Jeremiah Manele speaks during a press conference in Honiara on May 2, 2024.

The leadership change will maintain the strategic Pacific Island nation's new pro-Beijing bent, driving the U.S. and Australia to scale up their own influence campaigns.

The Solomon Islands Elects Another Pro-China Prime Minister

Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov visits the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on May 13, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. Belousov was named defense minister on May 12. 

The move to replace former Defense Minister Shoigu with a trusted economist signals an intent to better align Russia's military-industrial complex with the government's broader economic strategy.

Putin Taps an Economist To Head Russia's Defense Ministry

PSC candidate Salvador Illa waves following Catalonia's regional elections May 12 in the Spanish city of Barcelona. While the result of Catalonia's regional election reduces the risk of another push for independence in the short to medium term, it also increases uncertainty regarding the stability of the Spanish central government and its ability to pass legislation.

While the result of Catalonia's regional election reduces the risk of another push for independence in the short to medium term, it also increases uncertainty regarding the stability of the Spanish central government and its ability to pass legislation.

A Socialist Win in Catalonia Reflects a Diminished Separatist Drive

Latest

Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers fire at a Russian position in Ukraine's Kharkiv region on April 21, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While initially intended to draw Ukrainian resources away from the Donbas region, Russia's new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region will likely become core to Moscow's war efforts in 2025.

Russia's New Front in Kharkiv Raises the Stakes for Ukraine and the West

Kuwait

By dissolving parliament and suspending articles of the constitution, Kuwait's emir is hoping to finally enact overdue economic reforms. But fears of sparking public backlash will still limit the scope of those reforms.

Kuwait's Dissolved Parliament Clears the Way for Stalled Economic Reforms

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader delivers a speech to lawmakers in the National Assembly in Santo Domingo on February 27, 2024.

President Abinader appears poised to win a second term, which will position the country for continued economic growth. But external threats risk complicating his pro-business agenda.

In the Dominican Republic, the President's Likely Reelection Bodes Well for the Economy, But Challenges Remain

Global Elections

Netherlands

The four leaders of the parties that form the new Dutch government,  Geert Wilders, Dilan Yesilgoz, Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt, (L-R) on May 16 in The Hague.

While some elements of the new Dutch ruling coalition's agreement, such as a tightening of migration policies and environmental measures, will likely cause friction with the European Union and the Dutch business community, the far right's need to collaborate with mainstream coalition partners has somewhat moderated the new government's agenda.

Building a New Government Moderates the Dutch Far Right

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

United Kingdom

Ballots are counted during local elections in Thornaby, England, on May 3, 2024. 

The outcome of the votes in England and Wales confirms the ruling Conservative Party will likely perform poorly in the general election, but also that the opposition Labour Party will face competition from smaller parties.

What To Make of the Local U.K. Election Results

France

Serbia

Hungary

Chinese President Xi Jinping is seen between the Chinese and French national flags in Beijing on Jan. 9, 2018. 

During the rare visit, the Chinese president will seek to ease EU trade tensions and secure Beijing's economic presence and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.

What To Expect During Xi's Trip to Europe

Haiti

A Haitian police officer controls the area around the country's National Palace in Port-au-Prince on May 1, 2024.

The reversal in the transitional council's appointment of a new prime minister highlights political tensions within the governing body, indicating risks of further political instability and violence in the coming months.

Disputes Over a Prime Minister Appointment Bode Ill for Haiti's Stability

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) reservoirs are seen at the Yamal LNG plant in the port of Sabetta, located on the Yamal Peninsula in northwest Siberia, Russia.

The restrictions would further complicate Russia's efforts to increase LNG production, while having only a limited impact on the EU's natural gas supplies.

The Implications of the EU's Proposed Sanctions on Russian LNG

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Iran

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Fiji

Indonesia

Japan

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Honduras

Panama

Panamanian President-elect Jose Raul Mulino's appointed security chief Frank Abrego said the new government is considering establishing checkpoints along the northern Darien Gap in order to combat migration through the territory, Reuters reported on May 16. 

Panama: President-Elect Considers Implementing Checkpoints at Darien Gap

Kenya's opposition Thirdway Alliance Party filed a complaint to block the government's planned deployment of police officers to Haiti on May 16, leading the High Court on May 17 to order that the lawsuit be served to top officials, with the case to be heard on June 12, Reuters reported on May 17.

Kenya, Haiti: New Kenyan Legal Challenge Against Deployment to Haiti

Chad

Chad's constitutional council on May 16 confirmed Mahamat Idriss Deby as the president, rejecting appeals from candidates Succes Masra and Albert Pahimi Padacke, Radio France Internationale reported the following day. 

Chad: Constitutional Court Confirms Deby as Winner of Presidential Poll

Trucks began moving humanitarian aid ashore from the U.S.-built temporary humanitarian pier in Gaza around 9 a.m. local time, U.S. Central Command reported via X, formerly Twitter, on May 17.

U.S., Israel: First Aid Arrives Through U.S.-Built Temporary Pier in Gaza

France's Interior Ministry is dispatching 1,000 more police officers to the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia following four days of consecutive riots, Le Figaro reported on May 17.

France: Authorities Dispatch 1,000 More Police Officers to New Caledonia  

The secretariat of the Vietnamese Communist Party (VCP) -- the fifth-highest ranking office in Vietnam's political system -- Truong Thi Mai resigned in light of unspecified "violations and shortcomings" likely related to the corruption of her subordinates, state-run VietnamPlus reported on May 17.

Vietnam: Another Top Leader on Shortlist for VCP Chief Forced To Resign

Science & Technology

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Turkey

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Israel plans to abolish its free trade agreement with Turkey and impose a 100% tariff on Turkish imports in retaliation for Turkey's decision to halt exports to Israel, Reuters reported on May 16.

Turkey, Israel: Israeli Finance Minister Plans To Abolish Free Trade With Turkey

The Mexican government has increased apprehensions of migrants within its borders to prevent them from reaching the U.S.-Mexico border, apprehending 280,000 migrants in March 2024 compared with approximately 100,000 per month in early 2023, NBC reported on May 15.

Mexico, U.S.: Mexico Increases Migrant Apprehensions Throughout Country

Indonesia will reform its Constitutional Court to reduce the maximum term of justices from 15 years to 10, require justices to undergo presidential and parliamentary reviews every five years, and add the president and members of the House of Representatives and Supreme Court to the ethics council, BenarNews reported on May 15.

Indonesia: Constitutional Court Reform To Limit Judicial Independence

China's State Council revealed it was considering having local governments and state-owned enterprises help buy millions of unsold homes at large discounts to provide housing to low-income families and offer badly needed funding for debt-ridden real estate developers, Reuters reported on May 15. 

China: Housing Support Could Rekindle Demand, But Scale and Funding are Constraints

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Russia's New Front in Kharkiv Raises the Stakes for Ukraine and the West

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Panama: President-Elect Considers Implementing Checkpoints at Darien Gap

Kenya, Haiti: New Kenyan Legal Challenge Against Deployment to Haiti

Chad: Constitutional Court Confirms Deby as Winner of Presidential Poll

U.S., Israel: First Aid Arrives Through U.S.-Built Temporary Pier in Gaza

France: Authorities Dispatch 1,000 More Police Officers to New Caledonia

Vietnam: Another Top Leader on Shortlist for VCP Chief Forced To Resign

Turkey, Israel: Israeli Finance Minister Plans To Abolish Free Trade With Turkey

Mexico, U.S.: Mexico Increases Migrant Apprehensions Throughout Country

Indonesia: Constitutional Court Reform To Limit Judicial Independence

China: Housing Support Could Rekindle Demand, But Scale and Funding are Constraints

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