Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 19, 2025

Media

Iran

Israel

Podcasts

Military & Security

What is the long-term outlook for the conflict?

Essential Geopolitics: How Will the Israel-Iran War End?

Canada

Australia

China

United Kingdom

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and British Defense Secretary John Healey sit together for the AUKUS Defense Ministers Meeting at Old Royal Naval College on Sept. 26, 2024, in London, England.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Despite growing U.S. skepticism, strong imperatives to counter China's maritime presence will likely lead Washington to see a revised version of the AUKUS defense pact through.

U.S. Review of AUKUS Pillar I Puts Pact on Shaky Ground

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian missiles over Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025. 

The Israel-Iran conflict is set to evolve into a short war of attrition as Iran pits its degraded missile stocks against Israel's dwindling air defense systems.

Assessing the Trajectory of the Iran-Israel War

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Japan

Europe

Germany

France

Italy

Rescue teams work at damaged buildings in Nobonyad Square following Israeli airstrikes on June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran

Lebanon

What is the outlook for Hezbollah's disarmament in the coming months?

Essential Geopolitics: The Potential for Militia Disarmament in Lebanon

Smoke rises from a location allegedly targeted in Israel's wave of strikes June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran's Conflict Intensifies, Raising the Risk of a Regional War

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.



What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities

An Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft on March 24, 2025, over the city of Yokneam Illit in northern Israel.

Israeli launched a "preemptive" strike on Iran in the early hours of June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced as he declared a special state of emergency inside Israel.

Israel Launches Major Military Strikes on Iran

U.S. President Donald Trump discusses his plans for a "Golden Dome" U.S. missile defense shield in the Oval Office of the White House on May 20, 2025.

The plan for a U.S. missile defense system will likely fall short of its expansive aims, but it threatens to accelerate an arms race with Russia and China, as well as hasten the commercialization of space.

The Feasibility and Risks of Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Shield

Latest

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks to media during the closing press conference of the G7 Summit in Fasano, Italy, on June 15, 2024. 

Energy

Italy is seeking to embed its Mattei Plan into EU policy to gain support for its immediate goals of energy security and migration control, but structural issues will likely limit Rome's long-term influence in Africa.

Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives

Palestinian Territories

A group of armed Israeli soldiers stands in a narrow alley of the Old City of Hebron, West Bank, on May 31, 2025. 

While it will likely curb immediate terror threats, the crackdown will also fuel Palestinian grievances, increasing the risk of a larger uprising and internal Israeli government tensions.

To Thwart Militant Attacks, Israel Cracks Down on the West Bank

Mali

Russia

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

Cargo shipping containers are seen stacked at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, on April 15, 2025. 

Regardless of any short-term concessions, the U.S. will likely eventually expand the scope of its technology restrictions against China, likely prompting Beijing to retaliate by once again restricting exports of rare earths or other critical raw materials.

U.S.-China Framework To Implement Trade Deal Will Only Temporarily Ease Tensions

U.S.-China Relations

Spain

A protester holds a sign reading "Pedro Sanchez, give us back the democracy" during a demonstration in Madrid against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government on June 8, 2025.

Corruption scandals, opposition pressure and legislative gridlock are weakening the prime minister and his government, complicating planned reforms and defense spending hikes.

In Spain, Sanchez's Struggles Risk Rendering His Government Ineffective

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (left), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), addresses the media after attending the weekly coalition talks in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 3, 2025.

The far-right party's exit from the ruling coalition will likely trigger early elections, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty amid complex coalition-building and months of caretaker governance.

The Netherlands Descends Into Political Crisis After Government Collapses

Poland

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Global Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Iraq

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Ukraine

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

North Korea

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had pledged to supply 1,000 troops for mine sweeping and 5,000 military workers for infrastructure reconstruction efforts in Russia's Kursk region, AP reported on June 18, citing Russia's TASS state media outlet.

North Korea, Russia: North Koreans To Provide Mine Sweepers, Military Construction Labor to Kursk

U.S. military officials have expressed concern over the dwindling supply of Israeli Arrow interceptors used to counter Iranian long-range missiles, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 18.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Concerned About Dwindling Israeli Interceptors

Cyber

Science & Technology

The U.S. Senate passed first-of-its-kind bipartisan cryptocurrency legislation aimed at creating guardrails for "stablecoins," which are digital assets fixed to a fiat currency, CNN reported on June 17. 

U.S.: Senate Passes Landmark Cryptocurrency Legislation

Colombia

The Colombian Senate approved in a 57-31 vote a labor reform bill that expands workers' rights and is a flagship proposal of President Gustavo Petro, El Pais reported on June 17.

Colombia: Labor Reform Approval Unlikely To Significantly Reduce Political Instability Risks

India

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to work toward restoring full embassy services in both countries following their meeting at the Group of Seven summit in Alberta, Bloomberg reported on June 17.

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

Mozambique

The CEO of French multinational energy company TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, said he expected the development of the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project to resume "this summer," Reuters reported on June 18.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies CEO Confirms Plan To Resume Work on Mozambique LNG 'This Summer' 

An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program as U.S.-Iran talks struggle to progress, potentially setting off a cycle of regional escalation that alters Iran's political landscape.

As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen leaked a June 15 phone call between himself and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in which the latter blamed the Thai military for recent border tensions and appeared deferential to Hun, The Bangkok Post reported on June 18.

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaked Call Drives Mass Demonstrations, Political and Escalation Risks

Romania

Romanian President Nicusor Dan and the country's main centrist, pro-European parties -- the center-left Social Democratic Party, the center-right National Liberal Party, the liberal center-right Save Romania Union and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania -- agreed to form a new, rotating coalition government, Euractiv reported on June 17. 

Romania: Mainstream Parties To Form Broad Coalition Government

Brazil

The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies overwhelmingly approved a motion to expedite a vote to revoke a financial tax increase President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva introduced on May 22, Folha de S.Paulo reported on June 16.

Brazil: Congress Fast-Tracks Vote To Revoke Government's Tax Increase

New Zealand

New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon arrived in China for a four-day visit, his first to the country since assuming office in late 2023, The New Zealand Herald reported on June 17.

New Zealand, China: Luxon Walks Tightrope on Trade and Security in First China Visit

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Italy Syncs Its Mattei Plan for Africa With EU Initiatives

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

North Korea, Russia: North Koreans To Provide Mine Sweepers, Military Construction Labor to Kursk

U.S., Israel: U.S. Concerned About Dwindling Israeli Interceptors

U.S.: Senate Passes Landmark Cryptocurrency Legislation

Colombia: Labor Reform Approval Unlikely To Significantly Reduce Political Instability Risks

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

Mozambique: TotalEnergies CEO Confirms Plan To Resume Work on Mozambique LNG 'This Summer'

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaked Call Drives Mass Demonstrations, Political and Escalation Risks

Romania: Mainstream Parties To Form Broad Coalition Government

Brazil: Congress Fast-Tracks Vote To Revoke Government's Tax Increase

New Zealand, China: Luxon Walks Tightrope on Trade and Security in First China Visit

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