Assessments

United States

Iran

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Cyber

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 17, 2025

Snapshots

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

Economics

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

Iraq

Yemen

Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Recent actions by Iran and its Iraqi proxies appear designed to appease the U.S. as the Trump administration weighs taking aggressive military action against them both.

To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy

Australia

Australian Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) debates Liberal opposition leader Peter Dutton on April 8, 2025, in Sydney, Australia. 

While another Labor government would portend domestic and foreign policy continuity, a victory by the Liberal-National coalition would signal a shift toward fiscal austerity, loosened energy regulations, expanded defense spending and stricter immigration regulations.

Australia's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Ecuador

Cambodia

China

Malaysia

Vietnam

Europe

Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, on March 11, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Xi Tours Southeast Asia, Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

France

Poland

Spain

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

India

Pedestrians walk past a broadcast screen of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai on April 3, 2025, airing news of U.S. President Donald Trump unveiling sweeping new trade tariffs. 

Global Trade

If implemented, Trump's threatened 27% tariff would severely hurt certain Indian sectors (e.g., pharmaceuticals), though other sectors (e.g., textiles) could benefit if India's main competitors end up facing even higher tariffs.

For India, High U.S. Tariffs Offer a Mixed Bag

Taiwan

Taiwan's President Lai inspects troops taking part in the Rapid Response Exercise at the Songshan military airbase in Taipei on March 21, 2025.

Lai's policies to defend sovereignty and curb Chinese influence are prompting greater coercive pressure from Beijing.

In Taiwan, President Lai's Actions Toward China Will Speak Louder Than His Words

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

Latest

Bangladesh

A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.

If Bangladesh's interim government does hold a vote due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent will rise, potentially leading to military intervention. 

How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election 

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

Energy

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

U.S.-China Relations

Chad

Sudan

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

Netherlands

Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order after delivering remarks on reciprocal tariffs during an April 2 event in the Rose Garden in Washington. The U.S.–EU trade dispute is on track to escalate as Brussels prepares retaliation against Washington's sweeping 20% tariff on EU goods, increasing the risk of a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that would disrupt supply chains, slow growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strain broader cooperation. 

The developments could see a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that disrupts supply chains, slows growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strains broader cooperation.

Brussels Prepares to Respond to the Latest Trump Tariffs

French far-right Leader Marine Le Pen leaves the courtroom after a guilty verdict in her embezzlement case trial on March 31, 2025 in Paris, France. 

Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and an immediate five-year ban from public office has shaken French politics, threatening government stability and fueling far-right outrage ahead of the 2027 election.

Le Pen's Five-Year Political Ban Sets the Stage for Renewed Political Instability in France

Bolivia

Morales supporters march against the Arce government and denounce the economic crisis Jan. 13 in La Paz, Bolivia. The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

Bolivia's Socioeconomic Crisis Will Spiral Ahead of Its Presidential Election

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Canada

Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet signed 37 cooperation agreements spanning investment, trade and infrastructure, with the flagship Funan Techo canal deal structured as a public-private partnership under which Chinese investors will finance 49% of the $1.7 billion project's cost, The Phnom Penh Post reported on April 18.

China, Cambodia: Countries Sign Dozens of Deals, Including on Canal

Indonesia

Indonesia announced a suite of policies to shield its export-driven economy from U.S. tariffs and prevent large-scale job losses in vulnerable sectors, the Jakarta Globe reported on April 18.

Indonesia: Jakarta Unveils Policies To Shield Key Export Sectors

Science & Technology

Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security will assume a majority stake in FPT Telecom, one of the country's largest internet providers, Reuters reported on April 18.

Vietnam: Security Ministry Takes Majority Stake in Major Telecoms Company

China's Commerce Ministry announced that it would help exporters weather "external shocks" by leveraging China's "super-large-scale" domestic market, stabilizing foreign trade and bolstering consumption, Bloomberg reported on April 18. 

China: State Push To Help Exporters Likely To Spur Deflation, Trade Tensions

The United States struck Yemen's Ras Isa fuel port on April 17, reportedly killing at least 58 individuals and wounding 126 more, The Guardian reported on April 18.

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Conducts One of Its Deadliest Attacks on the Houthis

Afghanistan

Russia's Supreme Court suspended the country's formal designation of the Afghan Taliban as a "terrorist organization," months after Russian lawmakers in December 2024 passed legislation enabling courts to lift such designations, AP reported on April 17.

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Suspends Afghan Taliban's Terrorist Designation

Somalia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi publicly criticized Sivuyile Bam, the acting head of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), labeling him a "threat to Somalia's development and security" and accusing him of sympathizing with the militant group al Shabaab, Garowe Online reported on April 18. 

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

Colombia

The Colombian government and a remaining faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, did not reach an agreement to extend a ceasefire, El Pais reported on April 17. 

Colombia: Government Increasingly Shifts From 'Total Peace' to Confrontation

Syria

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Japan

Philippines

South Korea

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Africa Adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump, Massad Boulos, called on Rwanda to halt all military support to the M23 rebel group and withdraw its troops from the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, adding that the United States was considering "all economic and diplomatic means to promote peace" in the region, Bloomberg reported on April 17. 

Congo, Rwanda: U.S. Hints at Further Pressure on Rwanda as M23 Shows Signs of Weakness

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative unveiled its new plan to charge fees on Chinese ships calling at U.S. ports, Agence France-Presse reported on April 17.

U.S.: Washington Eases Proposed Port Fees in New Plan for Chinese Ships 

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Cambodia: Countries Sign Dozens of Deals, Including on Canal

Indonesia: Jakarta Unveils Policies To Shield Key Export Sectors

Vietnam: Security Ministry Takes Majority Stake in Major Telecoms Company

China: State Push To Help Exporters Likely To Spur Deflation, Trade Tensions

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Conducts One of Its Deadliest Attacks on the Houthis

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Suspends Afghan Taliban's Terrorist Designation

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

Colombia: Government Increasingly Shifts From 'Total Peace' to Confrontation

Congo, Rwanda: U.S. Hints at Further Pressure on Rwanda as M23 Shows Signs of Weakness

U.S.: Washington Eases Proposed Port Fees in New Plan for Chinese Ships

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