Assessments

United States

Turkey

China

Japan

Thailand

Ukraine

Russia

Supporters of AKP and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 12, 2023, in Istanbul.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A G-7 Summit in Japan, Significant Elections in Turkey

Syrian Kurds gather in the northeastern city of Qamishli on May 10, 2023, to show their support for the Turkish opposition ahead of Turkey's election. Images of Abdullah Ocalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), are seen on some demonstrators' placards and clothing.

Social Issues

If the majority of Kurds vote for Kilicdaroglu, he stands a good chance of defeating Erodgan and ending years of hawkish government policies toward the ethnic group.

In Turkey's Election, the Kurds Will Be the Kingmaker

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Sudan

Podcasts

Military & Security

How will the fighting in Sudan evolve over the coming weeks?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for the Conflict in Sudan

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 11, 2023

Opposition supporters wave Turkish flags and chant slogans while waiting for the arrival of their presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu during a campaign rally in Izmir, Turkey, on April 30, 2023.

The May 14 legislative and presidential ballot could end the AKP's 20-year reign, raising the risk of political instability, policymaking paralysis and even a constitutional crisis.

The Potential Outcomes of Turkey's General Election

Pakistan

A protest May 9, 2023, in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, against the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. The former prime minister's arrest increases nationwide risks of protests, social unrest, travel disruptions, and potential violence, and notably worsens political instability.

The former prime minister's arrest increases nationwide risks of protests, social unrest, travel disruptions and potential violence, and notably worsens political instability.

In Pakistan, Imran Khan's Arrest Will Worsen Already Heightened Political Instability

Snapshots

Chile

Supporters of Chile's far-right Republican Party celebrate their victory in the Constitutional Council election on May 7, 2023.

Economics

Conservatives' veto-proof majority in the new Constitutional Council will quell investor fears about major changes to Chile's current business-friendly charter.

Chileans Task Right-Wing Parties to Draft Their Next Constitution

Ukrainian soldiers take part in a military exercise in the Kharkiv region on May 1, 2023, amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. 

Kyiv's spring offensive will likely target the south, where even small gains could put Russian forces on the defensive and force Putin to mull more unpopular mobilization measures.

Ukraine's Counteroffensive Appears Imminent. Here's What To Watch For.

Europe

EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni holds a press conference in Brussels on April 26, 2023, after the European Commission presented a proposed overhaul of the bloc's economic governance rules. 

The changes would help avoid some of the problematic austerity measures of the past, but divides within the bloc may still emerge over reduced fiscal space to pursue key policy priorities.

Reviewing the EU's Proposed Reform to Its Debt and Deficit Rules

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

Russian soldiers march in Moscow on May 4, 2023, during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade on May 9.

The Weekly Rundown: Russia Marks Victory Day, Japan's Leader Visits South Korea

Philippines

A Chinese coast guard ship (R) shadows the Philippine coast guard vessel BRP Malapascua (L) while on patrol at the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea on April 23, 2023.

Washington woos the Philippines with strategic clarity, despite the dangers of a military conflict with China.

Clarified U.S. Defense Commitments Rock the Boat in the South China Sea

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

South Africa

Brazil

India

An attendant stands next to South African, Indian, Russian, Brazilian and Chinese flags during a BRICS summit in Xiamen, China, on Sept. 4, 2017. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

The addition of other non-Western nations like Saudi Arabia would boost BRICS’ economic and political heft as an alternative to the G-7, though it may come at the cost of the bloc’s internal cohesion.

For BRICS, More Members Would Mean More Power -- and More Problems

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves to his supporters from a balcony in Ankara, Turkey, on May 15, 2023. 

The opposition’s failure to secure a majority in parliament and win the first round of the presidential election increases the likelihood of Erdogan securing another term in the May 28 run-off.

In Turkey, a Presidential Run-Off Bodes Well for Erdogan

A car with members of Thailand's opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), including leader Pita Limjaroenrat, drives through a large crowd of supporters during a rally in Bangkok on May 15, 2023, following the MFP's victory in the general election. 

As expected, Thailand's two main opposition parties dominated the May 14 general election. But the military establishment will seek to leverage its institutional controls to retain power.

Despite Their Electoral Victory, Thai Opposition Parties Will Struggle To Form a Government

Egypt

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi addresses those participating in his government's national dialogue event via video conference on May 3, 2023. 

The government's tightly-controlled dialogue may leave room for minor economic reforms, but it's unlikely to produce the serious political changes more Egyptians are demanding.

In Egypt, a National Dialogue in Name Only

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A photo taken on May 2, 2023, shows the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor, the only land link connecting the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia. 

A recent setback in budding Turkey-Armenia normalization could prompt Azerbaijan to more aggressively pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the risk of a new conflict.

A Return to Icier Turkey-Armenia Ties Risks Emboldening Azerbaijan

Uganda

A Ugandan citizen watches a television broadcast of lawmakers holding a session on an anti-LGBTQ bill in the country's parliament on March 21, 2023. 

The likely adoption of one of the world's harshest anti-LGBTQ laws could deprive Uganda of critical Western aid and investment by raising the reputational risks of engaging with the country.

Uganda's Anti-LGBTQ Bill Risks Deterring Foreign Aid and Business

Uzbekistan

People attend a rally in support of Uzbekistan's constitutional referendum on March 28, 2023, in the city of Jizzakh, located roughly 250 kilometers (155 miles) south of the capital Tashkent.

Despite including provisions to strengthen civil liberties, the amendments are more aimed at securing President Mirziyoyev's grip on power by enabling him to run for two more terms.

In Uzbekistan, a Constitutional Referendum Is Unlikely to Portend Liberalization

This picture shows the skyline of Beijing on Feb. 3, 2021.

The law is part of a broader plan to combat threats to state and Party power, presaging greater reputational and data privacy risks for foreign companies.

Beijing Passes a Counterespionage Law in the Face of Multiplying Threats

On Geopolitics

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

Columns

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Sub-Saharan Africa

An aerial view of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is seen on Nov. 25, 2022.

Africa's expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity.

Africa's Population Boom, Part 1: The Opportunities and Risks

Israel

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

Thousands of government supporters staged a sit-in outside Pakistan's Supreme Court in the capital of Islamabad to protest the court's May 11 ruling that former Prime Minister Imran Khan's May 9 arrest was unlawful and merited his immediate release, AP reported on May 15.

Pakistan: Government Supporters Conduct Sit-In to Protest Supreme Court's Release of Khan

India's opposition Indian National Congress party won Karnataka state's legislative assembly election, defeating the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), AP reported on May 13.

India: Bharatiya Janata Party Loses Karnataka State to Congress Party

Vietnam

At least 10 Chinese vessels and five Vietnamese vessels have been trying to tail each other and cut each other off near the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea from May 10-14 following Vietnam's announcement earlier in May that it would expand oil drilling near the islands, the South China Morning Post reported on May 14.

China, Vietnam: Countries Conduct Days-Long South China Sea Standoff

United Kingdom

Switzerland

British Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch met Swiss Economy Minister Guy Parmelin in Bern, Switzerland, to initiate talks on an upgraded free trade agreement between the two countries, with formal negotiations set to start on May 22, Reuters reported on May 15.

U.K., Switzerland: Governments Kick off Trade Negotiations

Turkey’s presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks after incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote, opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 44.89%, and ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan won 5.17%.

Turkey: General Elections Bode Well for Ruling Alliance in Presidency and Legislature

Palestinian Territories

An Egyptian-brokered cease-fire between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went into effect on May 13, The Times of Israel reported the next day.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Cease-Fire Reduces Risks of Violence

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

A Chinese battle tank competes in a tank biathlon event held by the Russian military on Aug. 27, 2022, outside of Moscow, Russia. 

The U.S. claims Beijing is ''strongly considering'' providing Moscow lethal aid in Ukraine -- a move that would have sweeping consequences for not only the war, but China's development and its relations with the West.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 1

A hand holds a virtual circuitry-inspired display that represents ChatGPT.

Generative artificial intelligence tools will revolutionize job markets around the world by increasing automation and facilitating the creation of entirely new industries.

The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs

The United States and European Union will pledge to take joint action on shared concerns about China at the upcoming May 30-31 meeting of the EU-U.S. Trade and Technology Council in Sweden, Reuters reported May 13, citing a draft statement.

EU, U.S.: Joint Statement to Boost Cooperation on China in the Works

Russia's Defense Ministry acknowledged that its forces had fallen back from at least one position north of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, claiming that Ukrainian forces were advancing east in the direction of Soledar "along the entire contact line extending more than 95 kilometers [about 59 miles]," Meduza reported on May 12.

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Defense Ministry Admits Small Ukrainian Advances Around Bakhmut

The Islamabad High Court granted Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan protective bail for legal cases registered against him across the country until May 15, Dawn reported on May 12.

Pakistan: Islamabad High Court Grants Khan Protective Bail

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to protect civilians and the movement of humanitarian aid after a week of talks in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, Reuters reported on May 12.

Sudan: Generals Agree to Protect Civilians, But Not to Cease-Fire

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Iran

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

In Turkey, a Presidential Run-Off Bodes Well for Erdogan

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Government Supporters Conduct Sit-In to Protest Supreme Court's Release of Khan

India: Bharatiya Janata Party Loses Karnataka State to Congress Party

China, Vietnam: Countries Conduct Days-Long South China Sea Standoff

U.K., Switzerland: Governments Kick off Trade Negotiations

Turkey: General Elections Bode Well for Ruling Alliance in Presidency and Legislature

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Cease-Fire Reduces Risks of Violence

EU, U.S.: Joint Statement to Boost Cooperation on China in the Works

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Defense Ministry Admits Small Ukrainian Advances Around Bakhmut

Pakistan: Islamabad High Court Grants Khan Protective Bail

Sudan: Generals Agree to Protect Civilians, But Not to Cease-Fire

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