Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 17, 2025

Asia-Pacific

China

Russia

Diplomats attend the 32nd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

Chinese, Russian and U.S. participation in the summit shows that the Southeast Asian bloc will remain a key venue for diplomatic hedging and potential great power friction in the years ahead.

ASEAN Meeting Provides an Arena for Multipolar Competition

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Iraq

The sun sets behind electrical grids in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Jan. 3, 2021. 

Energy

Power outages will likely worsen this summer amid Iraq's inability to meet surging demand and reliance on unreliable Iranian gas supplies, raising the risk of larger and potentially more violent protests.

Iraq's Worsening Electricity Crisis Risks Fueling Bigger Protests

Bangladesh

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

Economics

Global Trade

While Bangladesh is making progress in its IMF program, risks persist, including political uncertainty, low foreign exchange reserves and high U.S. tariffs on its vital garment sector.

Bangladesh's Economic Outlook: Progress and Persistent Challenges

Cameroon

Cameroon President Paul Biya (L) and his wife Chantal Biya react during a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023.

Cracks in the ruling coalition risk fueling unrest and political instability as 92-year-old President Biya seeks an eighth term in the October election. 

Amid Growing Defections, Cameroon's Aging President Doubles Down With a Reelection Bid

Australia

Germany

United Kingdom

Ukraine

U.S. President Donald Trump on April 24 in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington. In an interview July 10, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested he would "have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday," perhaps representing a shift in his administration's policy.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Speaks on Ukraine, Sweeping EU Budget Reform

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A Ukrainian soldier works on an AN/TWQ-1 Avenger anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Despite Trump's impatience with Russia's failure to de-escalate in Ukraine, the White House is highly unlikely to dramatically ramp up pressure in a way that significantly alters the Kremlin's calculus.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

A collapsed water tank painted with the Lebanese flag is seen in the ruins of a village in southern Lebanon, located near the border with Israel, on Jan. 7, 2025.

Ahead of Lebanon's 2026 election, Hezbollah will try to portray itself as a nationalist resistance movement rather than an Iranian proxy, but the risk of renewed conflict with Israel will persist unless the group disarms. 

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand 

Europe

France

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 10, 2025

Columns

On Geopolitics

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Latest

Kenya

A demonstrator holds a Kenyan flag on a street in Nairobi, Kenya, during a pro-democracy protest on July 7, 2025. 

Growing anger over Ruto's economic policies and crackdown on dissent will hinder his efforts to reduce Kenya's fiscal deficit and portend recurring bouts of violent and disruptive protests.

No End in Sight to Kenya's Cycle of Deadly Protests

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

Lithuania

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Syria

Turkey

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The Federal Communications Commission plans to ban undersea telecommunication cables containing Chinese technology or equipment from connecting to the United States, according to a statement issued on July 16.

U.S.: FCC Proposes Ban of Chinese Equipment in Undersea Cables

Vietnam

Facing a 36% U.S. tariff threat, Thailand proposed eliminating tariffs and nontariff barriers on 90% of U.S. goods -- up from 60% -- in a last-ditch bid to reach a deal before U.S. President Donald Trump's Aug. 1 deadline, Bloomberg reported on July 17.

Thailand, U.S.: Following Other Deals, Bangkok Races To Beat Tariff Clock

Syrian government forces began withdrawing from their positions in Sweida following another ceasefire agreement with the Druze community, CNN reported on July 17.

Syria, Israel: Syrian Forces Withdraw From Sweida

Nigeria

Former Nigerian presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar terminated his membership of the opposition People's Democratic Party, or PDP, through a letter dated July 14, citing the party's perceived divergence from its core principles, Vanguard reported on July 16. 

Nigeria: Atiku Resigns From PDP as Former President Buhari's Death Risks Fragmenting Ruling APC 

Ethiopia

Somalia

Ethiopian authorities said they arrested 82 individuals suspected of links to the Islamic State Somalia Province, which operates in neighboring Somalia's Puntland region, Addis Standard reported on July 16. 

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a landmark bilateral agreement in London designed to deepen cooperation on defense, trade and migration, according to a joint press release on July 17.

U.K., Germany: London and Berlin Sign Bilateral Defense and Security Pact

The European Commission unveiled a proposal for a 1.98 trillion euro ($2.31 trillion) EU budget for 2028-34 on July 16, a press release shows.

EU: European Commission Proposes Larger, Reformed EU Multi-Year Budget

A Turkish court sentenced key opposition figure and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to one year and eight months in prison for insulting Istanbul's chief prosecutor, although he was not banned from running for office, Politico reported on July 16.

Turkey: Imamoglu Convicted but Not Banned From Running for Office

Japan

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

Japan's upper house elections will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will stay in power and -- if so -- how easily it will be able to pursue its key policy goals.

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Georgia

Georgian anti-government demonstrators attempt to block a highway entrance to the capital Tbilisi on Feb. 2, 2025

The government's efforts to suppress the opposition risk roiling its relations with the West, triggering more mass protests, and potentially enabling Russia to expand its influence in Georgia.

Georgia's Crackdown on Dissent Risks Drawing It Closer to Russia and Alienating the West

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia "continues to analyze" U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal with Kyiv by early September, Reuters reported on July 17.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia 'Continues To Analyze' Trump's Sanctions Threat

The Iraqi government will resume budget transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government after reportedly reaching an agreement with the KRG on its financial dispute, Rudaw reported on July 17.

Iraq: Federal Government and KRG Reach New Agreement on Financial Disputes

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: FCC Proposes Ban of Chinese Equipment in Undersea Cables

Thailand, U.S.: Following Other Deals, Bangkok Races To Beat Tariff Clock

Syria, Israel: Syrian Forces Withdraw From Sweida

Nigeria: Atiku Resigns From PDP as Former President Buhari's Death Risks Fragmenting Ruling APC

Ethiopia: Security Forces Reportedly Arrest 82 Suspected Islamic State Operatives

U.K., Germany: London and Berlin Sign Bilateral Defense and Security Pact

EU: European Commission Proposes Larger, Reformed EU Multi-Year Budget

Turkey: Imamoglu Convicted but Not Banned From Running for Office

Russia, Ukraine: Russia 'Continues To Analyze' Trump's Sanctions Threat

Iraq: Federal Government and KRG Reach New Agreement on Financial Disputes

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