Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 6, 2025

Media

Ukraine

Russia

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Is the Russia-Ukraine War Putin's Vietnam?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of U.S.-Russia Talks on War With Ukraine, Part I

Syria

Europe

A shuttered hotel is seen in Aleppo, Syria, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

Economics

To secure sanctions relief from the West, Syria's new leaders will likely take some symbolic steps toward forming an inclusive government, but any relief may prove temporary if Damascus diverges from its democratic promises.

The Prospect of Sanctions Relief for Post-Assad Syria

Snapshots

China

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-China Relations

South Korea

Essential Geopolitics: Key Events in South Korean Politics, Part II

Essential Geopolitics: Key Events in South Korean Politics, Part I

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

Canada

Mexico

Shipping containers are seen at the Port of Montreal in Montreal, Canada, on Feb. 3, 2025. 

Sustained U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico would undermine North American economic growth and integration, and Trump's apparent willingness to accept these costs raises the risk of his other large tariff proposals being implemented.

The High Stakes of U.S. Tariffs on North American Trade

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Israel

United Kingdom

Trucks wait to enter United States on Nov. 26, 2024, at the Otay crossing port in Tijuana, Baja California state, Mexico.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump's Tariffs, Congo Braces for More Fighting in the East

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Indonesia

Japan

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Vietnam

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.

Japan is intensifying its diplomatic and security engagement in Southeast Asia through defense, trade and infrastructure agreements to counterbalance China and enhance regional stability.

Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals

Latest

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Brazil

Colombia

Cuba

Haiti

Nicaragua

Venezuela

Iraq

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Yemen

Cambodia

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

India

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Ecuador

A woman walks past a mural of leftist presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez in Quito, Ecuador, on Feb. 5, 2025.

Noboa's reelection would portend more business-friendly policies that slowly improve Ecuador's economic conditions, while a victory by his left-wing challenger would see increased social spending that could jeopardize the country's IMF deal.

Previewing Ecuador's Presidential Election

Global Elections

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky looks on during a joint press conference with Poland's prime minister in Lviv on Dec. 17, 2024.

Despite growing pressure from the U.S. and Russia, Zelensky will resist proposals for Ukrainian elections and/or a ceasefire if he believes the terms would be political suicide for him and an affront to his country's interests.

How Will Peace Talks and Potential Elections Impact Ukraine's Political Stability? 

Pakistan

Bangladeshi soldiers stand guard in Dhaka on July 27, 2024.

Since assuming power in August, Bangladesh's interim government has pursued closer ties with Pakistan and China, deepening India's concerns about regional stability and its declining influence over Dhaka.

Bangladesh's More Assertive Foreign Policy Puts India on Edge

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

China pledged to partner with Islamabad to make additional investments in Pakistan, including in Pakistani railways and the strategic, China-operated Gwadar port, Reuters reported on Feb. 6.

Pakistan, China: Beijing To Bolster Investment Projects in Pakistan Despite Uptick in Militant Attacks

A U.S. Department of State spokesperson announced that Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued waivers to allow the United States to provide $40.7 million in foreign assistance to Haiti, including to support the U.N.-approved, Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission, AP reported on Feb. 5. 

Haiti: U.S. Affirms Support for Multinational Security Support Mission

Malawi

The Rwandan-backed Alliance for the Congo River/M23 rebel coalition seized the Democratic Republic of the Congo's town of Nyabibwe in an apparent violation of the unilateral ceasefire the group declared on Feb. 3, but said the move was in response to attacks from the Congolese military, Reuters reported on Feb. 5.

Congo: Malawi Prepares Exit Despite Apparent Breach of Ceasefire as AFC/M23 Appoint Local Government Officials   

Myanmar

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra met Xi Jinping in Beijing, where the Chinese leader endorsed Thailand's crackdown on Myanmar-based scam hubs while agreeing to deepen cooperation in law enforcement, infrastructure and tourism, the South China Morning Post reported Feb 6. 

Thailand, China: Thai PM's Visit to Beijing Highlights Deepening Security, Supply Chain Ties

Tunisia

Tunisian President Kais Saied replaced Finance Minister Sihem Boughdiri with Michkat Khaldi, a judge with little financial experience, Reuters reported on Feb. 5.

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Finance Minister Amid Shortages of Staple Goods

China's foreign ministry announced on Feb. 6 it had appointed former Chinese ambassador to France Lu Shaye as its Special Representative for European Affairs, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

China, EU: Beijing Appoints Combative Diplomat as Europe Envoy

Panama

The government-controlled Panama Canal Authority stated that it had not changed charges or rights to cross the canal, rebuking a U.S. State Department claim of a deal that would allow U.S. government vessels to cross the waterway free of charge, Reuters reported Feb. 5.

Panama, U.S.: Washington to Further Pressure Panama on Canal Fees and Chinese Influence

Science & Technology

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

The United States notified the United Nations that it froze U.S. funding for the U.N.-approved, Kenya-led Multinational Security Support mission amid a 90-day pause on foreign aid that President Donald Trump imposed after taking office on Jan. 20, Reuters reported on Feb. 4. 

Haiti: U.S. Informs U.N. of Freeze on Funds for Multinational Security Mission

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou survived a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly after only 128 lawmakers (primarily from the far left) voted in favor of deposing him, short of the 289 votes needed, France 24 reported on Feb. 5. 

France: Bayrou's Minority Government Survives No-Confidence Vote

The Philippines' House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, with 215 of 306 members backing the motion, Rappler reported on Feb. 5.

Philippines: House Impeaches Vice President Days Before Adjournment

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, China: Beijing To Bolster Investment Projects in Pakistan Despite Uptick in Militant Attacks

Haiti: U.S. Affirms Support for Multinational Security Support Mission

Congo: Malawi Prepares Exit Despite Apparent Breach of Ceasefire as AFC/M23 Appoint Local Government Officials

Thailand, China: Thai PM's Visit to Beijing Highlights Deepening Security, Supply Chain Ties

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Finance Minister Amid Shortages of Staple Goods

China, EU: Beijing Appoints Combative Diplomat as Europe Envoy

Panama, U.S.: Washington to Further Pressure Panama on Canal Fees and Chinese Influence

Haiti: U.S. Informs U.N. of Freeze on Funds for Multinational Security Mission

France: Bayrou's Minority Government Survives No-Confidence Vote

Philippines: House Impeaches Vice President Days Before Adjournment

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