Assessments

Peru

Iran

China

Ukraine

Moldova

The 133rd session of the Committee of Ministers at the European Council on May 17 in Strasbourg France. European Union leaders will gather June 27-28  in Brussels for the first European Council summit since the June 6-9 European Parliament elections.

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine and Moldova Begin EU Accession Talks, Peru's President Visits China

Media

Podcasts

What are the implications for individual EU member states?

Essential Geopolitics: Interpreting European Parliament Election Results

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Kenya

Somalia

Haiti

United States

U.S. President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden pose with Kenyan President William Ruto (center), alongside his wife and children, as they arrive for a State Dinner at the White House on May 23, 2024. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

For Kenya, stronger ties with the U.S. could unlock new investment and diplomatic opportunities, but bilateral relations could weaken if Nairobi draws down its police deployment in Haiti, or if Trump reenters the White House.

What To Expect From Stronger U.S.-Kenya Ties

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 20, 2024

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is seen at a ceremony in Brasilia, Brazil, on June 17, 2024.

Brazil's governability conditions will keep deteriorating as its left-wing president and right-leaning Congress increasingly butt heads, stalling economic reforms and undermining the country's business climate.

In Brazil, Lula's Obstacles to Passing Economic Policies Continue To Mount

France

Cyber

What entities pose the biggest cyberthreats?

Essential Geopolitics: Growing Cyber Concerns Ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympics

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin watches a race during the F1 Grand Prix in Imola, Italy, on May 19, 2024.

Three legal cases against prominent political figures portend renewed protests and policy paralysis that will weigh on Thailand's fragile economy.

Thai Politics Undergoes Another Round of Instability

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swears his oath at Rashtrapati Bhavan, the country's presidential palace, on June 9, 2024, in New Delhi, India. 

Modi will balance his party's priorities against coalition dynamics as the opposition continues to flounder.

The BJP's Policy Prospects Following India's General Election

Global Elections

South Africa

Australia

Malaysia

New Zealand

Germany

Switzerland

President Cyril Ramaphosa is sworn in as member of parliament during the first sitting of the new South African parliament on June 14 in Cape Town, South Africa. Ramaphosa will be inaugurated to a second term in a ceremony scheduled to take place June 19 in Pretoria.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine's Peace Summit, South Africa's Inauguration

Snapshots

A voter casts their ballot in European parliamentary elections on June 9, 2024, in Berlin, Germany.

Growing political tensions within Germany's ruling coalition will exacerbate infighting, though early elections remain unlikely.

What a Poor Performance in EU Elections Means for Germany's Coalition Government

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

Water distress risks destabilizing economies across the globe, increasing the risk of cross-border migration flows while contributing to intra-regional economic divergence.

The Economic Implications of Global Water Stress

Latest

Vietnam

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Vietnamese President To Lam attend an event in Hanoi, Vietnam, on June 20, 2024. 

Russia and Vietnam agreed to collaborate on various energy projects, including in the contested South China Sea, but reviving their defense industrial relationship will prove more challenging.

Putin's Trip to Vietnam Yields Energy Deals, but Defense Cooperation Will Remain Constrained

Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, arrives to speak to the media in Berlin on June 10, 2024, the day after the elections for the European Parliament were held in Germany.

Mainstream parties will continue their collective stance in preventing the AfD from entering the federal government, but the far-right party's strong support in eastern Germany could still enhance its sway in state-level politics.

The Rise of Germany's Far Right Portends Political Risks in the Years to Come

North Korea

Portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are displayed in Pyongyang, North Korea, for Putin's visit to the country on June 20, 2024. 

Russia's deepening ties with North Korea are meant to draw U.S. attention and resources away from Ukraine by increasing the threat of conflict in another region.

The Significance of Russia and North Korea's New Defense Pact

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

A graph of the ruble exchange rate against the background of the Russian flag and paper banknotes. 

A new U.S. sanctions package on Russia raises risks of secondary sanctions for financial institutions around the world, leading more companies to cut off ties to Russian entities.

With a New Sanctions Package, the U.S. Squeezes Russian Trade

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Ghana

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

The National Assembly on June 10 in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and a legislative election June 30, with a second round on July 7.

The most likely outcome of the vote is prolonged policy paralysis either through a hung parliament or through complex cohabitation between a president and prime minister from different parties. 

French Early Legislative Elections Risk Policy Paralysis

Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Japan

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

Taiwan

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Columns

On Geopolitics

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

Israel

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Fiji

Indonesia

Philippines

Singapore

United Kingdom

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum on June 20 announced her first six Cabinet picks, including former Foreign Affairs Minister Marcelo Ebrard to lead the Economy Ministry and former Ambassador to the United Nations Juan Ramon de la Fuente to lead the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Mexico: President-elect's First Cabinet Picks Reinforce Continuity Pledge

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden will give Haiti nearly $95 million to support a security mission to the country and $15 million to support the Haitian National Police, Reuters reported June 20, citing an announcement made by the U.S. State Department announcement.

U.S., Haiti: Biden Administration Bypasses Block on Aid for Haiti 

New Chinese court guidelines state that the death penalty could be used against ''Taiwan independence diehards'' who incite succession and conduct various independence-related crimes, Xinhua News reported June 21.

China: Beijing Threatens Death Penalty Against 'Taiwan Independence Diehards'

Science & Technology

The U.S. Treasury Department on June 21 issued a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) that would restrict U.S. investments in China and other ''countries of concern'' involving technologies that could pose national security risks, including semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and artificial intelligence. 

U.S.: Treasury Proposes Rule Restricting U.S. Investments in Chinese Technologies

Kenya's National Assembly approved the government's Finance Bill 2024 in a second reading with 204 votes against 115, Nation reported June 20.

Kenya: Lawmakers Approve Finance Bill in Second Reading, Final Approval Pending 

Niger

Niger revoked France's state-owned uranium miner Orano's exploitation rights at the Imouraren mine, Radio France Internationale reported June 20. 

Niger: Junta Revokes Uranium Mining Licence From France's Orano 

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

Palestinian Territories

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder confirmed that Ukraine can use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike Russian forces that are firing on Ukrainian troops anywhere across the border inside Russia, not just in the Belgorod region threatening Kharkiv, Reuters reported June 20.

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: U.S. Authorizes Ukraine to Target Russian Forces Beyond the Border

Somalia's government is urging a slowdown in the withdrawal of African Union (AU) peacekeepers due to fears of a security vacuum and a resurgence of al-Shabab militants, Reuters reported June 20.

Somalia: Government Urges Foreign Troops To Slow Withdrawal Amid Concerns of Islamist Resurgence

Nigeria

Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda-affiliated group originally active in the central Sahel of sub-Saharan Africa, has reportedly expanded its operations into northwestern Nigeria after crossing from neighboring Benin, AP news reported on June 19.

Nigeria: Sahel Jihadists Cross Into Country's North

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was inaugurated for a second term on June 19, Reuters reported the same day.

South Africa: Tensions Over Cabinet Formation Emerge Following Ramaphosa's Inauguration 

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2024 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mexico: President-elect's First Cabinet Picks Reinforce Continuity Pledge

U.S., Haiti: Biden Administration Bypasses Block on Aid for Haiti

China: Beijing Threatens Death Penalty Against 'Taiwan Independence Diehards'

U.S.: Treasury Proposes Rule Restricting U.S. Investments in Chinese Technologies

Kenya: Lawmakers Approve Finance Bill in Second Reading, Final Approval Pending

Niger: Junta Revokes Uranium Mining Licence From France's Orano

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: U.S. Authorizes Ukraine to Target Russian Forces Beyond the Border

Somalia: Government Urges Foreign Troops To Slow Withdrawal Amid Concerns of Islamist Resurgence

Nigeria: Sahel Jihadists Cross Into Country's North

South Africa: Tensions Over Cabinet Formation Emerge Following Ramaphosa's Inauguration

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