Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 24, 2025

Snapshots

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

China

Japan

South Korea

The Geopolitics of Trade

Economics

Global Trade

U.S. reciprocal tariffs will have major economic and political impacts on Japan and South Korea, particularly as both East Asian countries prepare for summer elections.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Cyber

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Bangladesh

A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.

If Bangladesh's interim government does hold a vote due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent will rise, potentially leading to military intervention. 

How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election 

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 17, 2025

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

Energy

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

Latest

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Mexico

Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexico's economy in the short term, they may eventually grant Mexico a competitive advantage over countries that face even higher duties.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

U.S.-China Relations

Chad

Sudan

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order after delivering remarks on reciprocal tariffs during an April 2 event in the Rose Garden in Washington. The U.S.–EU trade dispute is on track to escalate as Brussels prepares retaliation against Washington's sweeping 20% tariff on EU goods, increasing the risk of a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that would disrupt supply chains, slow growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strain broader cooperation. 

The developments could see a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that disrupts supply chains, slows growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strains broader cooperation.

Brussels Prepares to Respond to the Latest Trump Tariffs

Europe

Poland

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Kenya

Kenyan President William Ruto and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to upgrade bilateral ties to a “new level” and strengthen cooperation in a range of sectors, including infrastructure, healthcare, science and technology, and security following a bilateral meeting, Reuters reported on April 24. 

Kenya, China: Nairobi and Beijing Upgrade Ties Following Ruto-Xi Meeting

South Africa's National Treasury announced that it would not proceed with a 1% increase in the value-added tax rate scheduled in the country's 2025 fiscal framework and would instead ask parliament to "adjust expenditure" in a way that does not harm the country's fiscal sustainability, Reuters reported on April 24.

South Africa: ANC Capitulates on VAT Hike, Spending Cuts Now on the Table

South Korea's first-quarter gross domestic product dropped 0.1% year on year, while consumption fell 0.1%, exports dropped 1.1%, and construction and facility investment fell 3.2% and 2.1%, respectively, according to the Bank of Korea on April 24. 

South Korea: First Quarter GDP Contracts, Second Quarter Off to a Poor Start

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan security forces deployed in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province have been accused of limiting or delaying responses to protect civilians during attacks by Islamic State Mozambique Province insurgents, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data reported on April 23.

Mozambique: Further Reports Accuse Rwandan Forces of Delaying Responses to Insurgent Attacks

Lebanon's National Assembly approved a law to remove banking secrecy, Reuters reported on April 24.

Lebanon: Parliament Passes Banking Secrecy Act

Science & Technology

India announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty and ordered Pakistani nationals within its territory to leave the country by April 27, following the April 22 attack by The Resistance Front that killed at least 26 people in the locality of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir province, The Times of India reported on April 24.

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

Belgium

China is preparing to lift sanctions on European Parliament lawmakers in an effort to revive its stalled Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) with the European Union, the Financial Times reported April 23, citing a spokesperson for European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.

EU, China: Beijing Ready to Lift Sanctions on European Lawmakers to Revive EU Investment Agreement 

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky cut short a trip to South Africa to return home after one of the largest Russian missile and drone attacks in months targeting Kyiv and other cities, Bloomberg reported April 24. 

Russia, Ukraine: Massive Russian Attack on Ukraine as Both Sides Trade Blame for Holding Up Peace Deal

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Jordan

Jordan's interior minister announced that the government banned the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's largest opposition group -- and confiscated its assets after the group was linked to a failed plot to attack targets in Jordan, Reuters reported on April 23. 

Jordan: Government Bans Muslim Brotherhood, Confiscates Its Assets

Brazil

Brazilian lawmaker Pedro Lucas Fernandes rejected an invitation from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to become communications minister two weeks after the government announced he would take the role, g1 reported on April 22.

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya, China: Nairobi and Beijing Upgrade Ties Following Ruto-Xi Meeting

South Africa: ANC Capitulates on VAT Hike, Spending Cuts Now on the Table

South Korea: First Quarter GDP Contracts, Second Quarter Off to a Poor Start

Mozambique: Further Reports Accuse Rwandan Forces of Delaying Responses to Insurgent Attacks

Lebanon: Parliament Passes Banking Secrecy Act

India, Pakistan: Tensions Rise as Pakistan, India Downgrade Relations, Threaten Escalation

EU, China: Beijing Ready to Lift Sanctions on European Lawmakers to Revive EU Investment Agreement

Russia, Ukraine: Massive Russian Attack on Ukraine as Both Sides Trade Blame for Holding Up Peace Deal

Jordan: Government Bans Muslim Brotherhood, Confiscates Its Assets

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

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