Assessments

Ghana

Kenya

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Uganda

United States

Venezuela

Australia

China

Japan

Philippines

United Kingdom

India

A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

Global Elections

Media

Podcasts

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

What preventative steps should organizations take to protect themselves from cyberattacks? 

Essential Geopolitics: What We Can Learn from High-Profile Cyber Breaches

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 25, 2024

How would various U.S. election scenarios play out on a global scale?

Applied Geopolitics: Understanding U.S. Elections in the Context of Larger Geopolitical Trends

Malaysia

The main dome of the Malaysian prime minister's office in Putrajaya is seen on June 4, 2024. 

A bigger parliamentary majority will enhance the government's staying power, freeing it to more avidly pursue its plans to attract foreign investment, among other policy initiatives.

Political Stability Will Help Malaysia Hit Its Economic and Foreign Policy Goals

South Africa

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., on July 11, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Biden's exit from the U.S. presidential race will free him to pursue more aggressive action against Russia over Ukraine and increase pressure on Israel to end its war with Hamas. 

What To Expect from Biden's Foreign Policy Farewell Tour

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

A member of Venezuela’s national guard walks past the information center of the country’s National Electoral Council (CNE) in Caracas on July 16, 2024, ahead of the upcoming presidential election.

Energy

Maduro will likely win another term in an election widely seen as a sham, increasing the risk of economically damaging U.S. sanctions that could drive more Venezuelans to leave the country.

Previewing Venezuela's Presidential Election

Snapshots

Yemen

A giant fire erupts at an oil storage facility following Israeli strikes in Yemen's Houthi-held port city of Hodeida on July 20, 2024. 

Geographical and military limitations will discourage Israel from starting a long-term campaign in Yemen, but increased coordination among pro-Iranian militias could escalate the conflict.

Competing Military Goals and Geographical Constraints Limit Israel's Campaign in Yemen

U.S. President Joe Biden on Nov. 1, 2023, in Washington.

U.S. President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris make her the likely Democratic candidate. While any Democratic president would face significant obstacles in enacting policy due to legislative and judicial constraints, foreign policy positions would remain largely aligned with Biden's, particularly on China, Russia and NATO. 

What Biden's Withdrawal Means for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

France

Parc des Champions on July 4, 2024, at the foot of the Eiffel Tower at the Trocadero in Paris.

The Weekly Rundown: The Paris Olympics, Netanyahu Addresses Congress

Vietnam

A man in Hanoi, Vietnam, reads a news article on the death of the country’s top leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, on his phone on July 19, 2024.

The death of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong will likely see the country's security-minded president permanently take over the role, portending a less effective business climate and strained Vietnam-U.S. trade ties. 

What To Expect Following the Death of Vietnam's Top Leader 

Latest

Mexico

The front pages of Mexican newspapers showing the news of the capture of cartel leader Ismael ''El Mayo'' Zambada are seen in Mexico City, Mexico, on July 26, 2024. 

On top of spurring retaliatory violence in the weeks ahead, the arrests of El Chapo's son and a major Sinaloa Cartel leader could alter Mexico's criminal landscape by weakening one of the country's most powerful cartels.

In Mexico, What To Expect Following the Arrests of Two Major Drug Lords

A stock photo shows the inside of a modern data center.

The proliferation of AI and cloud computing, and the energy-intensive data centers they rely on, will strain power supplies in certain U.S. areas, but are unlikely to pose systemic risks to the national grid.

In the U.S., the AI Revolution Could Create Localized Power Crunches

Syria

Turkey

Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023. 

The two countries will take steps to restore their diplomatic and economic ties, but competing security imperatives will make full-scale normalization difficult. 

Evaluating the Prospects of Turkey-Syria Normalization

Photograph of the Union Buildings in Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa, at night. 

The government will likely face intra-coalition challenges and strong pushback from trade unions, but early signs of compromise from both the DA and ANC suggest it could successfully pass several structural reforms in the coming years.

The Challenges Facing South Africa's New Coalition Government 

Jordan

Jordan's King Abdullah II (right) and the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, pose for a photo during the 2024 G-7 Summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 14, 2024.

Over the next year, Jordan will pursue growth-focused economic reforms as part of its IMF program, but ongoing regional instability will likely still give some businesses and investors pause.

As Conflicts Rage on Around It, Jordan Sets Out To Boost Its Business Appeal

French President Emmanuel Macron (center, in foreground) and French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal review the troops during the Bastille Day military parade in Paris, France, on July 14, 2024.

A caretaker administration will guarantee the functioning of the state while complex government formation talks take place, but the appointment of a political government able to enact necessary fiscal measures will remain elusive.

The Powers and Limits of France's New Caretaker Government 

A swarm of drones make an Indian flag in the sky over New Delhi, India, on Jan. 29, 2022.

The U.K.'s new Labour government has pledged to ink a trade deal with India after its predecessor failed to do so, but disputes over immigration and climate policies could stall progress.

With Elections Behind Them, the U.K. and India Resume Trade Talks

Guinea

A stock photo shows a large, open-pit iron ore mine with various layers of soil.

If the project's completion is not derailed by renewed political instability in Guinea, the giant Simandou mine's iron ore exports will help China diversify its supplies and decarbonize its steelmaking industry. 

What Africa's Largest Mining Project Means for Guinea, China and the World

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump with blood on his face surrounded by secret service agents as he is taken off the stage at a July 13 campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Social Issues

The assassination attempt increases the risk of politically motivated unrest and violence throughout the rest of the presidential election cycle.

Trump Assassination Attempt Portends Heightened Political Violence

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a signing ceremony in Beijing, China, on May 31, 2024.

The meeting is unlikely to yield major policy changes amid President Xi's preference for state-planning over market openness, while constraints on China's economic reform plans will perpetuate the steady outflow of foreign business.

China's Third Plenum Will Cater to Xi's Statist Vision of Economic Reform

Columns

On Geopolitics

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Singapore

South Korea

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Science & Technology

Mali

Algeria

Morocco

Clashes erupted on July 25 between the Malian army, supported by Russian Africa Corps mercenaries, and Tuareg rebel groups in the northern Kidal region, Jeune Afrique reported on July 26.

Mali: Security Forces Clash With Tuareg Rebels Near Algerian Border

Indonesia is working to curb Chinese investment in new nickel mining and refining projects, the Financial Times reported on July 26.

Indonesia, China: Indonesia Acting to Reduce Chinese Dominance in Nickel Sector

A series of coordinated arson attacks on France's railway infrastructure led authorities to delay, reroute or stop several trains on July 26, just hours before the opening ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, Reuters reported the same day.

France: Coordinated Arson Attacks Disrupt Train Services Ahead of Olympics Opening Ceremony

Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated the United States' commitment to renewing and updating the African Growth and Opportunity Act, or AGOA, at the Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Forum, Independent Online reported on July 25.

U.S., Africa: Biden Reiterates Commitment To Renewing AGOA Trade Pact

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's Election Commission announced that the country will hold presidential elections on Sept. 21, with nominations for the election due on Aug. 15, Reuters reported July 26. 

Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka to Hold Presidential Elections on Sept. 21

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Tunisia

Tunisian President Kais Saied signed a presidential pardon for over 1,700 individuals detained for their critical social media posts about the government, The National reported on July 26.

Tunisia: Saied Pardons Social Media Critics

Canada

On July 24, U.S. and Canadian fighter jets intercepted Russian and Chinese bomber patrols within the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in their first joint Arctic flight operation, The Financial Times reported the next day.

U.S., Canada: Russian and Chinese Warplanes Intercepted Off Alaska

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Myanmar

Thailand

Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) began their annual meeting on July 25 in Vientiane, Laos, Nikkei Asia has reported.

ASEAN: Foreign Ministers Meet in Laos for Annual Summit

Kenyan President William Ruto unveiled his new Cabinet, granting four high-ranking cadres of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement, or ODM, key ministerial portfolios, Nation reported on July 24.

Kenya: Ruto Names Opposition Figures for Key Portfolios in New Cabinet

Djibouti

France and Djibouti renewed their bilateral defense cooperation treaty, Jeune Afrique reported on July 24.

Djibouti: France Secures Renewal of Bilateral Defense Agreement

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

In Mexico, What To Expect Following the Arrests of Two Major Drug Lords

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Security Forces Clash With Tuareg Rebels Near Algerian Border

Indonesia, China: Indonesia Acting to Reduce Chinese Dominance in Nickel Sector

France: Coordinated Arson Attacks Disrupt Train Services Ahead of Olympics Opening Ceremony

U.S., Africa: Biden Reiterates Commitment To Renewing AGOA Trade Pact

Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka to Hold Presidential Elections on Sept. 21

Tunisia: Saied Pardons Social Media Critics

U.S., Canada: Russian and Chinese Warplanes Intercepted Off Alaska

ASEAN: Foreign Ministers Meet in Laos for Annual Summit

Kenya: Ruto Names Opposition Figures for Key Portfolios in New Cabinet

Djibouti: France Secures Renewal of Bilateral Defense Agreement

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