Assessments

Brazil

United States

Thailand

Europe

France

French police officers in riot gear stand guard and hold tear gas canister launchers next to the facade of a damaged Apple Store in Strasbourg, eastern France, on June 30, 2023.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Riots Rage On in France, Brazil Assumes the Mercosur Presidency

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

China

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on March 21, 2023.

The Wagner uprising won't weaken China's ties with Russia, though it will confirm Beijing's commitment to stifling political and military dissent at home.

The Specter of Wagner: What Russia's Political Instability Means for China

U.S.-China Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 29, 2023

Media

South Africa

Sudan

Zimbabwe

Argentina

Chile

Ecuador

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Germany

Ukraine

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

Podcasts

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

What Q3 security risks should companies expect and prepare for?

Essential Geopolitics: An Overview of RANE's Q3 Forecast

Saudi Arabia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (second from right) attends the weekly cabinet meeting in his office in Jerusalem on June 25, 2023. 

The country's push to impose a one-state solution on the Palestinians is angering its new Arab allies and hardening Saudi Arabia against normalization. 

Israel's Far-Right Policies Slow Progress on the Abraham Accords

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko gives an interview as he attends the informal meeting with EU ministers in Stockholm, Sweden, on Feb. 27, 2023.

Energy

The Continent's recent efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian energy will help it endure the fallout from the looming expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract.


Europe Is Set to Withstand Further Disruptions to Its Russian Gas Supplies

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a public address in Moscow on June 26, 2023, following an armed rebellion over the weekend launched by Wagner mercenaries. 

The Kremlin may not fully observe the deal it reached to end the armed uprising, raising questions about the future of Putin's regime and his war in Ukraine.

What To Watch For in Russia After Wagner's Armed Rebellion

South Sudan

Workers load luggage onto a vehicle that belongs to refugees from Sudan who entered Ethiopia in Metema on May 5, 2023.

South Sudan's tenuous peace wavers as Sudan's civil war rages on, placing the broader region at risk of a humanitarian crisis.

Sudan's Civil War Endangers South Sudan's Fragile Peace

Belarus

Members of Wagner Group on June 24, 2023, sit on a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don.

The dismantlement of Russia's Wagner Group will strengthen the Kremlin's ability to handle the war and conduct personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run.

Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia

Guatemala

Vietnam

Employees of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on June 20, 2023, arrange ballots in Guatemala City during preparations for the upcoming general elections.

The Weekly Rundown: Guatemala Holds General Elections, Pakistan's IMF Bailout Program Expires

How will AI legislation differ between the United States and the European Union? 

Essential Geopolitics: Recent AI Legislation Efforts 

Latest

EU flags are seen waving in the wind. 

Brussels' push to curb sensitive exports to potentially hostile countries will likely face pushback from member states reluctant to increase pressure on China.

Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks, the EU Unveils a New Economic Security Strategy

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone's president, Julius Maada Bio, waves to his supporters upon arriving at a campaign rally in Freetown on June 20, 2023, ahead of the country's general election. 

The tight presidential race has fueled fears over a resurgence of violence. But the outcome of the June 24 vote is unlikely to affect the West African country's crucial agricultural and mining sectors.

Previewing Sierra Leone's Closely Contested General Election

Ireland

Ireland's foreign minister Micheal Martin (right), Irish Defence Forces chief Sean Clancy (left) and Brigadier General Tony Cudmore (center) meet Irish President Michael D. Higgins in Dublin, Ireland, on April 13, 2023. 

An ongoing debate over military neutrality is unlikely to see Ireland pursue NATO membership anytime soon, but that won't keep it from increasing its cooperation with the alliance.

Will Ireland Join NATO?

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during the meeting between members of the 20th Politburo Standing Committee on Oct. 23, 2022, in Beijing, China. 

Recent developments suggest the Chinese president's preferred policies are underperforming, and that he's curbing information flows and wielding anti-corruption probes in response.


In China, Xi's Policy Woes Portend More Political Repression and Data Restrictions

River port flooding in Kherson on June 6, 2023, in Kherson, Ukraine, downstream from the Nova Kakhovka Dam. The major damage to the Nova Kakhovka Dam will force Ukraine to adjust but not fundamentally alter its emerging counteroffensive plans.

Environment, Science & Technology

The incident will damage crop yields, flood Russian-occupied areas south of the Dnieper River and force Kyiv to adjust its emerging counteroffensive.

Gauging the Impact of the Kakhovka Dam Collapse in Ukraine

Moldova

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Qatar

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

Columns

On Security

Austria

The director of Austria's intelligence agency (left) and the president of Vienna's state police hold a press conference on a foiled Vienna pride parade attack on June 18, 2023. 

The latest disruption in Vienna shows that Western counterterrorism personnel remain vigilant, but a loss of focus over time will lead to gaps that terrorists may exploit in the future.

What the Foiled Vienna Pride Parade Plot Suggests About the Islamist Threat to the West

On Geopolitics

Italy

Silvio Berlusconi leaves a polling station after voting in Italy's September 2022 snap election. The former prime minister died on June 12, 2023, at the age of 86.

The death of Italy's longest-serving prime minister marks the end of an era. But Berlusconi's legacy will live on through his enduring impact on Italian and European politics.

The Complex Legacy of Italy's Silvio Berlusconi

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center left, wearing a red tie) and his newly appointed cabinet members visit the Anıtkabir memorial site in Ankara, Turkey, on June 6, 2023.

To cement his legacy, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in Russia and Israel's footsteps by expanding Turkey's territory in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria and Cyprus.

A Final Term for Turkey's Erdogan in the Age of Annexation

A Tibetan Buddhist woman stands on a hill overlooking the Labrang Monastery on March 2, 2018, in Gansu, China, the country's poorest province.

While eastern cities like Beijing may individually escape the middle-income trap, China's interior risks being left behind, which could impede the country's ability to overcome its demographic decline.

China's Geographic Divides Will Compound Its Demographic Challenge

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reached a staff-level agreement to provide $3 billion to Pakistan through a nine-month stand-by arrangement, AP reported on June 30.

Pakistan: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement for $3 Billion Bailout

The United States is increasingly considering delivering the long-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported on June 29.

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington Considers Supplying ATACMS to Ukraine

EU countries agreed to provide "future security commitments" to Ukraine ahead of the July 11-12 NATO summit, the Financial Times reported on June 29.

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Agree to Offer Security Guarantees to Ukraine

Asia-Pacific

Daniel Kritenbrink, the assistant U.S. secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, called on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to resolve inter-bloc territorial disputes in the South China Sea, The Straits Times reported on June 29.

U.S., ASEAN: Washington Calls on ASEAN to Resolve Inter-Bloc Disputes

Brazil's federal electoral court voted in favor of convicting former President Jair Bolsonaro for abuse of power and misuse of the media, which will prohibit him from running for office until 2030, Folha de Sao Paulo reported on June 30.

Brazil: Electoral Authority Bars Bolsonaro From Political Aspirations Until 2030

Mexico

Fans hold up Mexico and Brazil's national flags at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Insufficient domestic reforms and global economic headwinds will weigh on both countries, though Mexico will likely fare better than Brazil. 

Mexico and Brazil: What Lies Ahead for Latin America's Largest Economies

Japan

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index (focused on exporters) has performed second best globally so far this year, up 27% and only trailing behind the United States' Nasdaq index, The Financial Times reported on June 29.

Japan: Stock Rush Another Motivator for Tokyo to Slow-Roll Rate Hikes

In an open letter, more than 150 European executives warned that the proposed EU Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act, which aims to regulate AI, is too harsh and risks preventing Europe from rejoining "the technological avant-garde," the Financial Times reported on June 30.

EU: Corporate Leaders Protest Regulations in Proposed AI Act

Iran

European diplomats informed Iran that the European Union will retain ballistic missile sanctions that are set to expire in October, Reuters reported on June 28.

EU, Iran: Bloc to Retain Ballistic Missile Sanctions on Iran

French police made 180 arrests on the night of June 28-9 following riots in the suburbs of several French cities over the June 27 police killing of a 17-year-old teenager of Algerian descent, Reuters reported on June 29.

France: Second Night of Riots Portend Further Social Tensions, Political Risk for Macron 

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's central bank unveiled a plan to meet the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s target of reducing Sri Lanka's overall debt to 95% of GDP by 2032, which will be submitted to parliament for approval on July 1, Reuters reported June 29.

Sri Lanka: Central Bank Announces Domestic Debt Restructuring Plan

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

2023 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement for $3 Billion Bailout

Ukraine, U.S.: Washington Considers Supplying ATACMS to Ukraine

EU, Ukraine: EU Leaders Agree to Offer Security Guarantees to Ukraine

U.S., ASEAN: Washington Calls on ASEAN to Resolve Inter-Bloc Disputes

Brazil: Electoral Authority Bars Bolsonaro From Political Aspirations Until 2030

Japan: Stock Rush Another Motivator for Tokyo to Slow-Roll Rate Hikes

EU: Corporate Leaders Protest Regulations in Proposed AI Act

EU, Iran: Bloc to Retain Ballistic Missile Sanctions on Iran

France: Second Night of Riots Portend Further Social Tensions, Political Risk for Macron

Sri Lanka: Central Bank Announces Domestic Debt Restructuring Plan

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support