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Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 4, 2023

Snapshots

Uzbekistan

People attend a rally in support of Uzbekistan's constitutional referendum on March 28, 2023, in the city of Jizzakh, located roughly 250 kilometers (155 miles) south of the capital Tashkent.

Politics

Social Issues

Despite including provisions to strengthen civil liberties, the amendments are more aimed at securing President Mirziyoyev's grip on power by enabling him to run for two more terms.

In Uzbekistan, a Constitutional Referendum Is Unlikely to Portend Liberalization

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

Europe

A production plant owned by the Luxembourgish multinational steel manufacturing corporation, ArcelorMittal, is seen in Desteldonk, Belgium, on April 24, 2023.

Energy

The measures aim to reduce key industries' carbon footprint by increasing the cost of polluting in the bloc, while also reducing the impact of that cost increase on more vulnerable consumers and businesses.

The Takeaways From the EU's Latest Carbon-Cutting Measures

Media

Ecuador

Podcasts

What will happen if President Guillermo Lasso is ousted?

Essential Geopolitics: Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso's Impeachment Trial

Paraguay

Israel

United Kingdom

India

Pakistan

A general view shows a Knesset session in Jerusalem, Israel, on March 20, 2023. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.K. and Paraguay Hold Elections, Israel's Knesset Resumes

Argentina

A woman pays for fruits and vegetables in Argentine pesos at a market in Buenos Aires on Feb. 10, 2023.

The risk of hyperinflation will increase as Argentina's weak and divided government struggles to bring prices down and restore trust in the peso.

Argentina Braces for More Economic Pain

Military & Security

How will these changes impact open-source intelligence gathering?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of Recent Social Media Changes for Security Professionals

Ukraine

Russia

Yu Jun (left), the deputy director of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Eurasia Department, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin (right) hold a press briefing in Beijing on April 26, 2023, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier that day.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

China’s efforts to frame itself as a promoter of peace in Ukraine are unlikely to achieve progress in the foreseeable future and its activities will remain aligned with Russia’s goals.

What to Make of Xi and Zelensky’s First Call Since Russia’s Invasion

This picture shows the skyline of Beijing on Feb. 3, 2021.

The law is part of a broader plan to combat threats to state and Party power, presaging greater reputational and data privacy risks for foreign companies.

Beijing Passes a Counterespionage Law in the Face of Multiplying Threats

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 27, 2023

Latest

Philippines

A Chinese coast guard ship (R) shadows the Philippine coast guard vessel BRP Malapascua (L) while on patrol at the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea on April 23, 2023.

Washington woos the Philippines with strategic clarity, despite the dangers of a military conflict with China.

Clarified U.S. Defense Commitments Rock the Boat in the South China Sea

U.S.-China Relations

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

Turkey

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A photo taken on May 2, 2023, shows the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor, the only land link connecting the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia. 

A recent setback in budding Turkey-Armenia normalization could prompt Azerbaijan to more aggressively pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the risk of a new conflict.

A Return to Icier Turkey-Armenia Ties Risks Emboldening Azerbaijan

Uganda

A Ugandan citizen watches a television broadcast of lawmakers holding a session on an anti-LGBTQ bill in the country's parliament on March 21, 2023. 

The likely adoption of one of the world's harshest anti-LGBTQ laws could deprive Uganda of critical Western aid and investment by raising the reputational risks of engaging with the country.

Uganda's Anti-LGBTQ Bill Risks Deterring Foreign Aid and Business

Syria

A picture shows the Saudi Embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus on April 13, 2023. 

Assad's refusal to concede power will impede Arab states' recent push to ease his regime's international isolation by fueling concerns among regional and U.S. skeptics. 

The Obstacles to Syria's Normalization

Senegal

A man holds a Senegalese flag in front of the Parliament in Dakar on Sept. 12, 2022, ahead of the first parliamentary session since the July 2022 legislative elections.

In Senegal, a new opposition coalition rejects a possible third term for President Macky Sall, which could have grave consequences for the country's traditionally stable democracy.

Senegal’s 2024 Election Could Threaten One of West Africa's Most Stable Democracies 

Sudan

Heavy smoke billows above buildings near the Khartoum airport on April 15, 2023, amid clashes between the army and paramilitary troops. 

Clashes between the military and Rapid Support Forces will likely persist despite international calls for peace, and could escalate into a sustained nationwide conflict.

Sudan Descends Into Conflict as Army, Paramilitary Face Off

Members of Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group are seen in a desert area about 100 kilometers north of Khartoum on Sept. 25, 2019. 

The deployment of RSF fighters to Khartoum and the military's warnings indicate heightened tensions that could spur a greater conflict and derail Sudan's transition to civilian rule.

In Sudan, a Standoff Between the Army and Paramilitary Forces Risks Renewed Violence

Japan

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Sub-Saharan Africa

An aerial view of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is seen on Nov. 25, 2022.

Africa's expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity.

Africa's Population Boom, Part 1: The Opportunities and Risks

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

The Russian-installed head of Ukraine's occupied Zaporizhzhia region authorized the evacuation of all children, parents, elderly people, disabled people and hospital patients from 18 settlements near the front line in the region, The Moscow Times reported on May 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Occupation Official Orders Evacuation Over Impending Offensive

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party suffered a significant defeat in local elections in England on May 4, with about 95% of votes counted as of late May 5, BBC reported the same day.

U.K.: Conservative Party Suffers Heavy Defeat in Local Elections

Mali

The Malian junta announced that it will hold a constitutional referendum -- originally scheduled for March but postponed -- on June 18, Radio France Internationale reported on May 5.

Mali: Interim Military Government Announces Date for Constitutional Referendum

U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order that paves the way for the government to sanction individuals involved in fighting in Sudan, AP reported on May 4.

Sudan: Biden Signs Executive Order Paving the Way for Sanctions

France

The lower house of France's National Assembly adopted a text to prevent the ''dismantling'' of the French electricity giant EDF, despite opposition from President Emmanuel Macron's government, le Figaro reported May 4. 

France: National Assembly Adopts Text Preventing EDF Asset Sale 

Canada

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly stated that the ministry was considering the "expulsion of diplomats" over a controversy related to a Chinese intelligence campaign against a Canadian member of parliament, South China Morning Post reported on May 5. 

China, Canada: Diplomatic Spat Shows 'Guardrails' on Competition Unlikely

Brazil

Portugal

Spain

U.S. and South Korean flags are waved March 10, 2015, in Seoul, South Korea.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Meets Biden, Lula Pushes Spain on EU Trade

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

A Chinese battle tank competes in a tank biathlon event held by the Russian military on Aug. 27, 2022, outside of Moscow, Russia. 

The U.S. claims Beijing is ''strongly considering'' providing Moscow lethal aid in Ukraine -- a move that would have sweeping consequences for not only the war, but China's development and its relations with the West.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 1

A hand holds a virtual circuitry-inspired display that represents ChatGPT.

Generative artificial intelligence tools will revolutionize job markets around the world by increasing automation and facilitating the creation of entirely new industries.

The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs

The leader of Russia’s Wagner military contractor, Evgeny Prigozhin, escalated his feud with Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov, releasing a series of videos blaming them for ammunition shortages and the subsequent deaths of Wagner soldiers, AP reported May 5.

Russia: Wagner Boss Escalates Feud With Military, Claims Withdrawal From Bakhmut in Ukraine

Germany

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck proposed subsidizing up to 80% of the electricity costs for companies in energy-intensive industries such as chemicals, steel, metal and glass, according to a May 5 working paper on industrial electricity prices in Germany.

Germany: Economy Minister Proposes Subsidizing Electricity Costs for Some Industries

A new draft of India's national electricity policy scrapped plans to build new coal-fired power plants beyond the projects already moving forward, which will generate 28.2 gigawatts of power, Reuters reported on May 4.

India: New Electricity Policy Scraps Some New Coal-Fired Power Capacity

Argentina suggested that it could expedite Brazilian imports if Brazil adopts a new credit system to conduct business in reais as opposed to the dollar as Argentina's Central Bank dollar reserves run low, Reuters reported on May 3.

Argentina: Government May Fast-Track Brazilian Imports in Exchange for Use of the Real

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Iran

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

Clarified U.S. Defense Commitments Rock the Boat in the South China Sea

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Occupation Official Orders Evacuation Over Impending Offensive

U.K.: Conservative Party Suffers Heavy Defeat in Local Elections

Mali: Interim Military Government Announces Date for Constitutional Referendum

Sudan: Biden Signs Executive Order Paving the Way for Sanctions

France: National Assembly Adopts Text Preventing EDF Asset Sale

China, Canada: Diplomatic Spat Shows 'Guardrails' on Competition Unlikely

Russia: Wagner Boss Escalates Feud With Military, Claims Withdrawal From Bakhmut in Ukraine

Germany: Economy Minister Proposes Subsidizing Electricity Costs for Some Industries

India: New Electricity Policy Scraps Some New Coal-Fired Power Capacity

Argentina: Government May Fast-Track Brazilian Imports in Exchange for Use of the Real

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