Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Canada

United States

Iran

Israel

Japan

Europe

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Rescue teams work at damaged buildings in Nobonyad Square following Israeli airstrikes on June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

Global Trade

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: G7 Leaders' Summit, More Israeli Attacks on Iran

Media

Lebanon

Podcasts

What is the outlook for Hezbollah's disarmament in the coming months?

Essential Geopolitics: The Potential for Militia Disarmament in Lebanon

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

An Israeli Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft on March 24, 2025, over the city of Yokneam Illit in northern Israel.

Israeli launched a "preemptive" strike on Iran in the early hours of June 13, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced as he declared a special state of emergency inside Israel.

Israel Launches Major Military Strikes on Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iraq

Yemen

An aerial depiction of Iran's Zagros Mountains and the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel is growing increasingly likely to strike Iran's nuclear program as U.S.-Iran talks struggle to progress, potentially setting off a cycle of regional escalation that alters Iran's political landscape.

As U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Flounder, Israel Inches Toward Escalation

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 12, 2025

China

Cargo shipping containers are seen stacked at the Port of Los Angeles in San Pedro, California, on April 15, 2025. 

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Regardless of any short-term concessions, the U.S. will likely eventually expand the scope of its technology restrictions against China, likely prompting Beijing to retaliate by once again restricting exports of rare earths or other critical raw materials.

U.S.-China Framework To Implement Trade Deal Will Only Temporarily Ease Tensions

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

An image shows a row of flags from the G7 members.

The June 15-17 summit will provide an opportunity for the bloc to discuss trade tensions and the war in Ukraine, but the meeting is more likely to expose transatlantic divisions over Trump's tariffs and reluctance to pressure Russia.

What To Expect From the First G7 Summit Following Trump's Return to the White House

Palestinian Territories

Israel's parliament meets March 20, 2023, in Jerusalem. A caretaker government would likely make concessions in Gaza, while a new government would likely take a different approach than Netanyahu toward Hezbollah and Iran.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A caretaker government would likely make concessions in Gaza, while a new government would likely take a different approach than Netanyahu toward Hezbollah and Iran.

How a Government Collapse Could Alter Israeli Foreign Policy

Spain

A protester holds a sign reading "Pedro Sanchez, give us back the democracy" during a demonstration in Madrid against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government on June 8, 2025.

Corruption scandals, opposition pressure and legislative gridlock are weakening the prime minister and his government, complicating planned reforms and defense spending hikes.

In Spain, Sanchez's Struggles Risk Rendering His Government Ineffective

Australia

How will Australian foreign policy change in the coming years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Australia's Political Landscape

A stock image showing industrial magnet parts.

China will likely continue to wield export restrictions on rare earth elements and related magnets in response to future U.S. restrictions, sustaining a high risk of supply chain disruptions, particularly for automakers.

In Trade War With U.S., China Finds a Pressure Point With Magnet Restrictions

Latest

U.S. President Donald Trump discusses his plans for a "Golden Dome" U.S. missile defense shield in the Oval Office of the White House on May 20, 2025.

The plan for a U.S. missile defense system will likely fall short of its expansive aims, but it threatens to accelerate an arms race with Russia and China, as well as hasten the commercialization of space.

The Feasibility and Risks of Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Shield

Argentina

Belize

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Suriname

Uruguay

Venezuela

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

Smoke rises from a location allegedly targeted in Israel's wave of strikes June 13, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran are increasingly likely to expand the scope of their attacks to include targets like each other's political leadership, energy infrastructure and other sensitive targets that would open the door to a wider regional war.

Israel and Iran's Conflict Intensifies, Raising the Risk of a Regional War

A view of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.

Israel's massive strikes on Iran's nuclear and military sites mark a sharp escalation likely to trigger sustained retaliation, regional instability and the collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks.



What To Expect as Israel Goes After Iran's Nuclear Program, Military Capabilities

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (left), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), addresses the media after attending the weekly coalition talks in The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 3, 2025.

The far-right party's exit from the ruling coalition will likely trigger early elections, leading to a prolonged period of political uncertainty amid complex coalition-building and months of caretaker governance.

The Netherlands Descends Into Political Crisis After Government Collapses

Poland

Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki waves to supporters in Warsaw, Poland, following the presidential runoff election on June 1, 2025.

The incoming conservative president will likely veto many of the centrist government's domestic reforms, while his euroskeptic views will sustain foreign policy incoherence, potentially undermining Poland's economic outlook and its credibility as a regional leader.

Poland Braces for More Political Gridlock Following Nawrocki's Presidential Victory

Global Elections

South Korea

A U.S. courthouse facade with columns in lower Manhattan, New York.

The court ruling nullifies most -- though not all -- of the Trump administration's tariffs, giving U.S. trading partners temporary breathing room in negotiations while the White House searches for alternative trade measures.

The White House's Tariff Ambitions Bend -- But Do Not Break -- Under the Weight of a Court Ruling

Columns

On Geopolitics

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Energy

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Iran launched dozens of ballistic missiles June 14 toward northern Israel, impacting several areas, including infrastructure near the port of Haifa, resulting in dozens of casualties.

Israel, Iran: Dueling Attacks Against Civilian Infrastructure Escalate

India

Science & Technology

India and China announced the resumption of direct flights to one another and efforts to strengthen bilateral communication, The Indian Express reported on June 13. 

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

Bangladesh

The office of Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus released a statement hinting that elections could be held in February 2026, two months earlier than the April 2026 date he announced on June 6, as popular frustration with interim authorities mounts, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Burundi

In Burundi's June 5 parliamentary elections, the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy party won all 100 directly elected seats with over 96% of the vote, a result the opposition called a death blow to democracy, BBC reported on June 12.

Burundi: Ruling Party Wins Every Seat in Parliamentary Poll

Philippines

The Philippines will "soon" deploy army units to up to nine South China Sea features it occupies, marking the first time the army will be tasked with defending maritime claims, the South China Morning Post reported on June 13.

Philippines: Manila To Deploy Army to South China Sea Features

A planned meeting between Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and U.S. President Donald Trump at the June 15-17 Group of Seven summit in Canada is now uncertain, Channel News Asia reported on June 13.

Australia, U.S.: Mounting Friction Puts Albanese, Trump G7 Meeting in Doubt

National Guard troops stand in front of a government building during a protest in Los Angeles, California, on June 8, 2025. 

Social Issues

The White House's deployment of National Guard troops to the Los Angeles protests reflects an increasingly aggressive mass deportation effort, and intense pushback against it, that set the stage for more unrest, legal standoffs and economic uncertainty.

By Deploying the National Guard to LA, Trump Doubles Down on His Mass Deportation Efforts

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Gulf Arab states condemned Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets in a series of official statements, Al Jazeera reported on June 13. 

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Kenya

Kenyan Finance Minister John Mbadi presented the country's 2025-26 budget to the National Assembly, Reuters reported on June 12. 

Kenya: Budget Showcases Rising Medium-Term Debt Distress Risks 

Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino asked the U.S. government to abstain from publicly commenting on Panama's domestic issues and to avoid dragging the country into a geopolitical conflict, Bloomberg Linea reported on June 12.

Panama: President Mulino Protests U.S. Rhetoric as U.S. Replaces Chinese Telecom Towers

Israel and Iran's Conflict Intensifies, Raising the Risk of a Regional War

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Iran: Dueling Attacks Against Civilian Infrastructure Escalate

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Burundi: Ruling Party Wins Every Seat in Parliamentary Poll

Philippines: Manila To Deploy Army to South China Sea Features

Australia, U.S.: Mounting Friction Puts Albanese, Trump G7 Meeting in Doubt

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Kenya: Budget Showcases Rising Medium-Term Debt Distress Risks

Panama: President Mulino Protests U.S. Rhetoric as U.S. Replaces Chinese Telecom Towers

U.S.: Steel Tariffs Expand To Cover Major Home Appliances

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