Assessments

South Africa

China

Japan

The European Commission in Brussels. On July 18, incumbents Roberta Metsola and Ursula von der Leyen are expected to be confirmed for a second term as presidents of the European Parliament and the European Commission, respectively.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New European Commission President, the Third Plenary Session of the CPC

Media

Israel

Lebanon

Podcasts

Israel-Hamas Conflict

What are the immediate implications of likely conflict scenarios?

Essential Geopolitics: Israel's and Hezbollah's Incentives and Constraints

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 11, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

Tajikistan

An image of the Tajik flag.

Anger over the president's rumored plan to pass the torch to his son risks further radicalizing some Tajiks, elevating terrorism threats to neighboring Central Asian states and the broader region.

In Tajikistan, a Looming Succession Risks Fueling Instability and Radicalization

Snapshots

France

A French flag is waved during a rally following the projected results of the second round of France's legislative election, at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024.

Even if a new government is formed, it will be fragile and constantly at risk of collapse, impeding Paris' ability to pass needed economic reforms while sustaining the prospect of new elections after mid-2025.

France Keeps the Far Right at Bay, but a Hung Parliament Still Raises Political Risks

Global Elections

Iran

A billboard displaying the faces of the six candidates in Iran's 2024 presidential election with July 5 runoff winner Masoud Pezeshkian at second from right. Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints.

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints. 

A Reformist Presidential Win Is Unlikely to Shift Iran's Regional Policy

U.S.-Iran Relations

Ukraine

Russia

India

A banner reading "public services in danger, let's vote" on July 5 in Paris.

The Weekly Rundown: French Legislative Runoffs, a NATO Summit in Washington

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Dec. 6, 2021.

Modi's upcoming talks with Putin highlight strong India-Russia ties and may lead to a final agreement on expanded defense cooperation and military exchanges.

Modi's Visit to Moscow Spotlights Strong India-Russia Ties

Europe

The Geopolitics of Water

Europe's agricultural and industrial sectors, as well as energy production, will suffer under worsening water stress in the coming years.

What To Expect From Water Stress in Europe

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 4, 2024

Latest

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington D.C. on July 11, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Western alliance's failure to provide Ukraine with decisive security guarantees and material support will likely enable Russia to maintain its war until Kyiv enters talks on Moscow's terms. 

The NATO Summit Leaves Ukraine Wanting

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends a signing ceremony in Beijing, China, on May 31, 2024.

The meeting is unlikely to yield major policy changes amid President Xi's preference for state-planning over market openness, while constraints on China's economic reform plans will perpetuate the steady outflow of foreign business.

China's Third Plenum Will Cater to Xi's Statist Vision of Economic Reform

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Turkey

Sunflower and wheat fields in Canakkale, Turkey, on June 25, 2024.

Extreme weather is threatening Turkey's agricultural sector, as rising costs have increased farmers' debt burdens in the absence of sufficient government aid.

In Turkey, Farmers' Debt Burdens Rise Alongside Extreme Weather Events

Graffiti reading 'June 30 Popular Front' after the results of the first round of parliamentary elections were announced June 30 in Paris. The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

French Elections See a Win for the Far Right, and for Policy Uncertainty

Kenya

Protesters participate in a nationwide rally against a controversial tax bill in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, on June 27, 2024. 

The Kenyan government axed its $2.3 billion tax plan amid mass deadly protests, but budget cuts to offset the revenue shortfall could reignite protests and potentially derail Nairobi's fiscal consolidation plans.

In Kenya, Scrapped Tax Hikes Put the Government in a Bind

Ethiopia

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Cyber

Science & Technology

U.S. telecommunications company AT&T announced on July 12 that hackers had downloaded call and text message data from its subscribers due to a breach at a third-party cloud platform provided by Snowflake.

U.S.: AT&T Breach Impacts 'Nearly All' Customers

India is set to overhaul more than 200 state-run firms to boost profitability, pivoting from the aggressive privatization drive that Prime Minister Narendra Modi championed in his previous term, Reuters reported on July 12.

India: Government Halts Privatization Push

Pakistan

The Supreme Court of Pakistan ruled that the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, is eligible for more than 20 seats reserved for women and minorities, which the Election Commission initially denied the party after the general election in February, Geo News reported on July 12. 

Pakistan: Supreme Court Rules PTI Eligible for Reserved Seats

Nepal

Nepal's Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was ousted after 19 months in power following a vote of no confidence in which 194 lawmakers voted against him and only 63 lawmakers voted to support him, The Kathmandu Post reported on July 12.

Nepal: Prime Minister Ousted Following No-Confidence Vote

Burkina Faso

Social Issues

Burkina Faso's military junta adopted an amended family code that prohibits and punishes homosexuality, Reuters reported on July 11.

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

Russia's state-controlled telecoms operator Rostelecom issued a statement warning users that video hosting platform YouTube may experience outages due to possible "technical problems with equipment owned by Google," The Moscow Times reported on July 12.

Russia: Government Commences Slowdown of YouTube

The United Kingdom's Parliament building in London.

A likely Labour government would shift the United Kingdom's economic and energy priorities, but foreign policy would remain largely consistent.

After 14 Years, What Would a U.K. Labour Government Look Like?

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Poland

Poland's coalition government failed to pass legislation seeking to decriminalize abortion after a majority of lawmakers in the lower house of the National Assembly rejected a bill that would have removed penalties for doctors helping women seeking to terminate pregnancies, Reuters reported on July 12. 

Poland: Rejection of Abortion Decriminalization Bill Highlights Ideological Differences Within Ruling Coalition

Benin

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

Burkinabe junta leader Ibrahim Traore accused Cote d'Ivoire and Benin of attempting to destabilize Burkina Faso in coordination with France, Le Monde reported on July 11.

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

Sub-Saharan Africa

Somalia

Shipping activity off the coast of southern Africa steeply dropped in the second week of July amid extreme weather events that caused one ship to run aground and resulted in the loss and damage of over 70 containers, Bloomberg reported on July 11. 

Africa: Shipping Disruptions off African Shores Grow Amid Extreme Weather Events, Piracy

Japan's Ministry of Defense claimed it found 38 incidents of Maritime Self-Defense Force members gaining access to classified information (e.g., on tracking foreign ships) without proper security clearance, prompting MSDF chief of staff Adm. Ryo Sakai to announce his resignation, the Financial Times reported on July 12.

Japan: Data Access Scandal Prompts Navy Chief Resignation, Impedes Defense Partnerships

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

China's Third Plenum Will Cater to Xi's Statist Vision of Economic Reform

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: AT&T Breach Impacts 'Nearly All' Customers

India: Government Halts Privatization Push

Pakistan: Supreme Court Rules PTI Eligible for Reserved Seats

Nepal: Prime Minister Ousted Following No-Confidence Vote

Burkina Faso: Junta Adopts Draft Law To Criminalize Homosexuality

Russia: Government Commences Slowdown of YouTube

Poland: Rejection of Abortion Decriminalization Bill Highlights Ideological Differences Within Ruling Coalition

West Africa: Burkina Faso Accuses Cote d’Ivoire and Benin of Destabilization Attempts

Africa: Shipping Disruptions off African Shores Grow Amid Extreme Weather Events, Piracy

Japan: Data Access Scandal Prompts Navy Chief Resignation, Impedes Defense Partnerships

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