Assessments

Senegal

Brazil

Haiti

United States

China

France

Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 11, 2024, in Beijing.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Senegalese Presidential Elections, Xi Meets With U.S. CEOs

U.S.-China Relations

Media

Podcasts

What are the milestones of Milei's presidency thus far?

Essential Geopolitics: Javier Milei's First 100 Days in Office

Snapshots

Ukraine

Russia

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Former Senegalese Prime Minister Amadou Ba (center), the ruling coalition candidate in Senegal's 2024 presidential election, prays ahead of a campaign meeting in Diourbel, Senegal, on March 19, 2024. 

Economics

A victory by the ruling coalition candidate would portend policy continuity -- and potentially violent protests -- while a victory from a leading opposition coalition would see a shift toward left-wing policies that could deter foreign investment.

Previewing Senegal's 2024 Presidential Election

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani speaks during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 13, 2023. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As Hamas loses control of Gaza, Qatar's political incentives for hosting the group's political leaders will decrease, which will likely see Doha align its Palestine policies with the other GCC members.

How Will the Gaza War Impact Qatar’s Foreign Policy and Its Ties to Hamas?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 21, 2024

Malaysia

Environment, Science & Technology

Malaysia's experienced workforce and neutral status in the U.S.-China rivalry will continue to draw interest to its chip sector, but the country will struggle to move up the value chain.

Malaysia's Place in the Race for Semiconductor Business

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Japan

10,000 yen notes on Sept. 24, 2022, in Tokyo.

A decision by the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rate and yield curve control policies is meant to reestablish greater monetary policy flexibility.

In a Boost for the Banking Sector, Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Argentina

The Argentine state-owned oil and gas company YPF’s refinery in Berisso, Buenos Aires, is seen on Oct. 18, 2022.

Energy

Political and economic challenges will impede the Milei government's plans to unleash the country's Vaca Muerta shale formation by deregulating the oil and gas sectors, at least in the short term.

Gauging the Outlook for Energy Reforms in Argentina

People vote in Russia's presidential election in the Russian-controlled area of the Donetsk region of Ukraine on March 15, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Putin is expected to enact controversial tax increases to help finance his war in Ukraine, as well as reshuffle his government as part of preparations for his eventual succession. 

Putin's Reelection Clears the Way for Domestic Measures to Continue the War Effort

Latest

U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are seen during a meeting of Israel's War Cabinet on Oct. 18, 2023.

While Washington's criticism of its Gaza campaign may deepen Israel's desire for defense self-sufficiency, Israel will remain heavily reliant on U.S. military aid for the foreseeable future.

Growing U.S. Criticism Will Constrain Israel's Future Foreign Policy

Pakistan

Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (right) and then-Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar (left) address a press conference in Lahore on June 30, 2023, after the signing of a staff-level agreement with the IMF.

Islamabad will likely secure the final tranche of its current stand-by arrangement, and potentially a new IMF bailout, but the government may struggle to enact related economic reforms.

The Outlook of Pakistan-IMF Engagement

Vietnam

Then-Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong looks on during a meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 21, 2023.

While unlikely to yield major policy changes in the near term, the president's resignation -- the second since January 2023 -- could be a harbinger of deepening political instability in the years ahead.

Another Abrupt Leadership Change Sows Doubt About Vietnam's Political Stability

Europe

Cyber

Nascent regulations and nonbinding private sector pledges will likely fail to curb the spread of deepfakes and other generative AI content on social media during the 2024 elections in both territories.

The U.S. and EU Brace for AI-Powered Election Disinformation

Kenya

A protester burns tires during a demonstration in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, on March 12, 2024, after Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry announced his plans to resign. 

For Kenya, sending police officers to the gang-ridden Caribbean country will likely help it boost ties with the West if the mission is a success, but it risks triggering public backlash at home.

What a Planned Police Deployment to Haiti Means for Kenya

Hong Kong SAR, China

Police officers set up a cordon as they disperse the public out of Victoria Park ahead of the 33rd anniversary of the Tiananmen Square incident on June 3, 2022, in Hong Kong, China.

The local national security law will pose legal and compliance risks to businesses in Hong Kong, and further impede China's efforts to curb the erosion of economic ties with the West.

Hong Kong's New Law Ushers In a China-Style National Security Environment

Portugal

The outside of the Portuguese parliament building is seen in Lisbon, Portugal.

Portugal's inconclusive election may lead to a series of fragile governments in the years ahead, but any new leader is unlikely to abandon the country's current path of fiscal prudence.

In Portugal, a Fragmented Parliament Paves the Way for More Political Instability

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Tunisia

The European Union plans to give Tunisia up to 164.5 million euros ($178.17 million) over three years to curb the number of migrants arriving in Europe via the central Mediterranean route, the Financial Times reported on March 24.

Tunisia, Europe: EU Plans $178M Deal To Curb Central Mediterranean Migration

Turkey

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that security services had arrested at least 40 suspects with reported links to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant since March 23 during security raids in eight different provinces, Turkish Minute reported on March 26.

Turkey: Authorities Arrest Hundreds of Islamic State Suspects After Moscow Attack

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Israeli airstrikes reportedly targeted a villa in eastern Syria that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, used as a communications center, killing at least nine pro-Iranian fighters including a senior IRGC commander, Al Arabiya reported on March 26. 

Israel: Airstrikes Eliminate IRGC Commander on Syria-Iraq Border

Guatemalan President Bernardo Arevalo traveled to Washington for a bilateral meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, AP reported on March 25. 

U.S., Guatemala: Extra $1B From Washington Unlikely To Mitigate Regional Migration

Science & Technology

The European Commission published a new set of rules under the Digital Services Act for large technology platforms in the lead-up to European Parliamentary elections in June, The Record reported on March 26. 

Europe: EU Releases Social Media Rules To Tackle Election Interference

France's public deficit stood at 5.5% of gross domestic product in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022 and much larger than the 4.9% the government forecast in its 2024 budget, according to data published by France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies on March 26.

France: More Spending Cuts Loom After Larger-Than-Expected Deficit

South Africa

South Africa's Electoral Court dismissed demands by the ruling African National Congress, or ANC, party to unregister the uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, party, The Independent reported on March 26.

South Africa: ANC Loses Court Bid To Unregister MK Party

Tanzania

Kenya's port authority announced that container traffic at the port of Mombasa rose by 11.9% in 2023, Business Daily Africa reported on March 26.

Kenya: Container Traffic at Mombasa Port Grows by Almost 12%

Gideon Sa'ar, a former member of Israel's ruling Likud party and the current chair of the New Hope party, announced that New Hope was leaving the wartime unity government because he had not been appointed to the War Cabinet, The Times of Israel reported on March 25.

Israel: Coalition Member Gideon Sa'ar Quits Unity Government

Venezuela

Egypt

Australia

New Zealand

Philippines

South Korea

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on March 14, 2024, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland.

The Weekly Rundown: Dueling U.S. and Chinese Diplomacy, a European Council Summit

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Palestinian Hamas militants are seen during a military show in Gaza City, Gaza, on July 20, 2017.

Without a central geography to anchor the group, there may be deepening rifts between Hamas' Doha-based politicians, its surviving militants in the West Bank and Gaza, and its fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

The Future of Hamas Without Gaza

British Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden publicly accused Chinese cyber threat actors of hacking the election commission and targeting 43 members of parliament in a cyberespionage campaign that reportedly began in August 2021, The New York Times reported on March 25.

U.K.: Government Officials Accuse China of Hacking Election Commission, Parliament Members

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2024 Second-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Tunisia, Europe: EU Plans $178M Deal To Curb Central Mediterranean Migration

Turkey: Authorities Arrest Hundreds of Islamic State Suspects After Moscow Attack

Israel: Airstrikes Eliminate IRGC Commander on Syria-Iraq Border

U.S., Guatemala: Extra $1B From Washington Unlikely To Mitigate Regional Migration

Europe: EU Releases Social Media Rules To Tackle Election Interference

France: More Spending Cuts Loom After Larger-Than-Expected Deficit

South Africa: ANC Loses Court Bid To Unregister MK Party

Kenya: Container Traffic at Mombasa Port Grows by Almost 12%

Israel: Coalition Member Gideon Sa'ar Quits Unity Government

U.K.: Government Officials Accuse China of Hacking Election Commission, Parliament Members

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