Assessments

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Europe

A photo taken from southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip shows a rocket being fired from inside Gaza toward Israel, as fighting resumed between the Israeli forces and Hamas militants after a temporary cease-fire expired on Dec. 1, 2023.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Gaza War Resumes, Venezuela Votes on Guyana Dispute

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 30, 2023

United Arab Emirates

Russia

COP28 President-Designate and the UAE's Special Envoy for Climate Change, Sultan al-Jaber (front row, fourth from left) -- poses for a group photo along with U.S. Climate Envoy John Kerry, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and other participants in the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on May 3, 2023, in Berlin, Germany.

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

This year's U.N. conference will highlight disparities between the developed and developing world on climate ambitions, as well as individual countries' differing priorities.

What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit

Snapshots

Netherlands

Geert Wilders (C), leader of the far-right Party for Freedom, sits next to Frans Timmermans (R), leader of the Green Left-Labor Party alliance, and Henri Bontenbal (L), leader of the Christian Democratic Appeal party, during a meeting in the Dutch parliament on Nov. 24, 2023, in The Hague, Netherlands. The party leaders are discussing the formation of a coalition government following Wilders' victory in the Nov. 22 general election.

Economics

Social Issues

The Netherlands' far-right Party for Freedom will moderate its platform as it struggles to attract coalition partners and win a parliamentary majority.

Despite a Far-Right Victory, Constraints Will Moderate the Netherlands' Next Government 

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Supporters of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's ruling Sacred Union coalition gather at the Martyrs Stadium in Kinshasa on April 29, 2023.

Military & Security

Amid instability in the east, election interference and disunity, the Congo's opposition parties will struggle to gain a foothold during the country's December general elections.

In Congo, President Tshisekedi Looks to Secure a Second Term

Kenya

Saudi Arabia

OPEC headquarters on June 3, 2023, in Vienna. OPEC+ will meet Nov. 26 to decide whether to deepen production cuts.

The Weekly Rundown: Climate Negotiations at COP28, OPEC+ Meets Following an Oil Sell-off

Chinese and Hong Kong flags are strung between buildings to mark the 26th anniversary of the city's handover from Britain to China on June 27, 2023, in Hong Kong.

The territory will continue down the path of political and economic integration into China, complicating business operations in the region.

Hong Kong District Elections Herald Political and Economic Changes to Come

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 23, 2023

United Kingdom

Portugal

Spain

People visit the 1627 Pilgrim Village at "Plimoth Plantation," where role-players portray pilgrims seven years after the arrival of the Mayflower, in Plymouth, Massachusetts.

On Thanksgiving, the United States celebrates the Plymouth Colony. However, few know that New England's colonization was a response to major geopolitical pressures -- particularly England's struggle against the Spanish both on the Continent and in the New World.

Thanksgiving and Puritan Geopolitics in the Americas

South Sudan

Sudan

South Sudanese military police officers sit on a pickup truck as they monitor the area during a deployment ceremony for South Sudan's unified forces at the Luri Military Training Center in Juba on Nov. 15, 2023. 

If a coup destabilizes South Sudan's fragile power-sharing government, the country could return to civil war.

Coup Rumors in South Sudan Highlight Continued Risk of Political Instability and Civil War 

Palestinians receive bags of flour at the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) distribution center in the Rafah refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on Nov. 21, 2023. 

The two sides are reportedly finalizing a deal to release hostages and suspend fighting, though its terms suggest that the halt in major combat will be temporary.

What to Make of Hamas and Israel's Pending Cease-Fire

Latest

Bangladesh

Activists march toward Bangladesh's election commission in Dhaka on Nov. 15, 2023, to protest the announcement of the general election's date. 

Growing concerns about vote rigging, rising inflation and state repression risk triggering more political violence and economically disruptive protests ahead of the Jan. 7 ballot.

Bangladesh Braces for Another Turbulent Election

Germany

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz prepares to deliver a speech in parliament about the budget crisis on Nov. 28, 2023, as Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (left), Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Economy Minister Robert Habeck look on. 

While the three members of the ruling coalition will likely reach a compromise, complex negotiations over spending cuts could still collapse the government next year.

Where Is Germany's Budget Crisis Headed?

Yemen

A Yemeni man about the alleged Houthi-linked hijacking of an Israeli ship in the Red Sea at a newsstand on Nov. 20, 2023, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Iran-backed rebel group's escalating harassment of military and commercial vessels in the Red Sea may eventually force the U.S. and Israel to respond by attacking Houthi targets in Yemen.

Houthi Maritime Attacks Risk Bringing the Gaza War to Yemen

People wave flags and cheer as a helicopter with Israeli hostages released earlier by Hamas lands at a medical center on Nov. 26, 2023, in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Fighting in Gaza will likely resume once Hamas runs out of hostages to exchange, which could see Israel-U.S. ties fray if the former doesn't heed the latter's calls to minimize civilian casualties.

How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?

U.S. President Joe Biden walks with Chinese President Xi Jinping as they meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Woodside, California, on Nov. 15, 2023.

The two presidents reached modest deals during their Nov. 15 meeting, but conflicting strategic visions will impede not only the implementation of these agreements but also long-term efforts to ease U.S.-China competition.

Pageantry vs. Progress: Reviewing the Biden-Xi Meeting 

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (right) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Nov. 9, 2023.

Despite inking new deals with Moscow, Astana will continue to deepen its ties with China, the West and Turkey, which over time will increase tensions with Russia.

Kazakhstan's Diversification Push Won't Spur Russian Retaliation -- For Now

Columns

On Geopolitics

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Zambia

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome Bahrain's king (not pictured) at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on Oct. 17, 2023. 

The most right-wing Italian government in decades has so far also proven to be one of the most stable. But that could change if Italy's economic fragility gives way to internal fractures in Meloni's coalition.

Reviewing Italy's First Year Under Meloni: From Anti-Establishment to Pragmatic

Japan

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

Argentina

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

South Korea

South Korea's ruling Democratic Party voted to impeach two senior prosecutors, including Lee Jung-seop, who is leading a corruption investigation into the leader of the Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, Yonhap News Agency reported on Dec. 1.

South Korea: Opposition Impeaches Prosecutors as Election Nears

El Salvador

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele stepped down on Nov. 30 to run for reelection in the upcoming Feb. 4, 2024, general elections, receiving a leave of absence from the country's Legislative Assembly and appointing his private secretary, Claudia Rodriguez, as acting president, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 1.

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban's new ambassador to China arrived in Beijing, marking the first time the group has officially sent an ambassador abroad since its August 2021 takeover of Afghanistan, AP reported on Dec. 1.

Afghanistan: Taliban Officially Sends Ambassador Abroad for First Time

According to the secretary of Bangladesh's Election Commission, the main opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party, or BNP, and its "like minded parties" did not submit their nominations for the 2024 general election by the Nov. 30 deadline, The Daily Star reported on Dec. 1.

Bangladesh: Main Opposition Party Boycotts 2024 Elections as Nomination Deadline Passes

The CEO of Brazil's state-owned oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, announced that the country plans to join the oil cartel OPEC+ in January 2024 following a full technical analysis, Reuters reported on Dec. 1.

Brazil: Brasilia to Join OPEC+, Flexing Fossil Fuel Might

Vietnam

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is in Hanoi, Vietnam, where the two countries agreed to upgrade rail connections while laying the groundwork for a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming weeks, Reuters reported on Dec. 1.

China, Vietnam: Countries Agree to Upgrade Rail Ties, Lay Groundwork for Xi Visit

Science & Technology

Attendees of the U.N. Climate Change Conference, or COP28, finalized the creation of a loss and damage fund to supply developing countries with recovery funds in response to the effects of climate disasters, Time reported on Nov. 30.

Global: COP28 Finalizes Creation of Loss and Damage Fund

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A meeting of the commission on border delimitation and security between Armenia and Azerbaijan, chaired by the countries' respective deputy prime ministers, was held at the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, Eurasianet reported on Dec. 1. 

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders to Intensify Border Delimitation Commission Meetings

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Ukraine

Ukrainian and Western media attributed a Dec. 1 explosion on the bypass track of Russia's Chortov Bridge and a Nov. 29 explosion on the Severomuysky tunnel of the Baikal-Amur Mainline, or BAM, to Ukraine’s security service, Meduza reported on Dec. 1.

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Takes Credit for Dual Sabotage of BAM

Madagascar

Madagascar's Constitutional Court confirmed President Andry Rajoelina's reelection on Nov. 16 in response to a court challenge by the runner-up, Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko, BBC reported Dec. 1. 

Madagascar: Court Confirms President Rajoelina's Reelection

Media

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Iran

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

Where Is Germany's Budget Crisis Headed?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

South Korea: Opposition Impeaches Prosecutors as Election Nears

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

Afghanistan: Taliban Officially Sends Ambassador Abroad for First Time

Bangladesh: Main Opposition Party Boycotts 2024 Elections as Nomination Deadline Passes

Brazil: Brasilia to Join OPEC+, Flexing Fossil Fuel Might

China, Vietnam: Countries Agree to Upgrade Rail Ties, Lay Groundwork for Xi Visit

Global: COP28 Finalizes Creation of Loss and Damage Fund

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders to Intensify Border Delimitation Commission Meetings

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Takes Credit for Dual Sabotage of BAM

Madagascar: Court Confirms President Rajoelina's Reelection

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