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Venezuela

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

United Kingdom

Bangladesh

Nicolas Maduro on Aug. 7, 2024, in Caracas, Venezuela. The presidents of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Gustavo Petro and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, respectively, are considering a call with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Aug. 12 in a bid to promote negotiations with the opposition to cool the risk of further violent unrest.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Awaiting Iranian Retaliation, Bangladesh's New Government

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

United States

Ukraine

Russia

Podcasts

Economics

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

How would a Trump administration's Ukraine policy differ from a Harris administration's Ukraine policy? 

Essential Geopolitics: What a Trump Presidency Would Mean for the Russia-Ukraine War

Graphics

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Aug. 4, 2024, in the Upper Galilee region of northern Israel. Israel remains on high alert for potential responses from Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Israel remains on high alert for potential responses from Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of Hamas' political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Israel on High Alert for Potential Responses From Iran and Hezbollah

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 8, 2024

Palestinian Territories

A security guard stands in front of a poster of Hamas' slain political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, on Aug. 2, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen.

The assassination of its political chief will exacerbate Hamas' constraints toward reuniting with its West Bank counterpart, leaving the Palestinian political movement fractured.

Haniyeh's Death Serves a Blow to Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Efforts

Ethiopia

The skyline of the western section of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, is seen on Dec. 28, 2020. 

Multilateral support will facilitate the country's debt restructuring, but the enactment of painful economic and monetary reforms could see more Ethiopians join ethnic militias in the short-to-medium term.

Ethiopia's IMF Deal Presages Long-Term Gains but Risks Fueling Security Challenges

Snapshots

Far-right activists gather in Sunderland, England, on Aug. 2, 2024, after misinformation spread via social media falsely attributed to a Muslim migrant to the recent murders of three girls in Southport.

The unrest following a fatal attack falsely blamed on a Muslim migrant underscores the growing threat of far-right extremism and disinformation in the U.K. and Europe more broadly, but the riots are unlikely to notably impact the new Labour government.

The New U.K. Government Faces Its First Test Amid Rash of Far-Right Riots

Anti-government protesters display Bangladesh's national flag as they storm Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's palace in Dhaka on Aug. 5, 2024.

The prime minister's decision to resign amid protests sets the stage for an uncertain interim government that will have to contend with a high risk of social unrest and economic challenges.

In Bangladesh, Hasina's Resignation Portends Greater Political and Economic Uncertainty

Australia

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris listens as President Joe Biden speaks during a Women's History Month reception in the White House on March 18, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalation in the Middle East, Kamala Harris' VP Pick

China

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

China's water security plans could see it become a world leader in water management technologies, but they also risk impeding Beijing's efforts to defuse debt bombs and attract foreign investment. 

In China, Water Security Comes With High Costs

Mexico

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates the results of the country's general election in Mexico City, Mexico, on June 3, 2024. 

President-elect Sheinbaum's pledge to enact her predecessor's sweeping institutional and judiciary reforms could spook foreign investors at a time when Mexico stands to benefit from global supply chain restructuring.

Assessing Mexico's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Latest

India

Muhammad Yunus (4R) on Aug. 9, 2024, in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

While Bangladesh's interim government is unlikely to make drastic changes in foreign policy, the government that emerges after new elections could seek closer ties with China and distance from India. This would delay bilateral projects with India, increase security challenges for India and lead to greater Chinese influence in the region.

After Elections, Bangladeshi Foreign Policy Will Drift in China's Favor

A Google sign is displayed outside the company's offices in New York City on Jan. 25, 2023.

Google's antitrust loss shows U.S. regulators can successfully challenge Big Tech, but without major reforms, such rulings are unlikely to weaken the tech sector's mega-corporations or prevent the creation of new ones.

 Washington's Antitrust Push Is Unlikely To Threaten U.S. Tech Firms' Global Dominance

Kazakhstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Continued liberalization will strengthen Kazakhstan's economic outlook in the coming years, but close ties to Russia and China may stifle foreign investment and limit growth.

Will Economic Liberalization Be Enough To Attract Foreign Investment in Kazakhstan?

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.

Despite progress on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, significant disagreements on key issues suggest that a final agreement remains unlikely in the near term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (left) and Catalan regional president Pere Aragones (right) pose during their meeting at the Generalitat Palace in Barcelona on July 24, 2024. 

While it may initially appease secessionist sentiments in the region, a proposal to remove Catalonia from Spain's common tax regime could create more political and financial headaches for Madrid in the future.

Understanding Spain's Controversial Push To Give Catalonia Control of Its Taxes

Venezuelan President and presidential candidate Nicolas Maduro reacts following the presidential election results in Caracas on July 29, 2024.

The Venezuelan president's highly disputed electoral victory will fuel political volatility, U.S. sanctions and risks of unrest and emigration in the coming months.

What Maduro Clinging To Power Means for Venezuela

Yemen

A giant fire erupts at an oil storage facility following Israeli strikes in Yemen's Houthi-held port city of Hodeida on July 20, 2024. 

Geographical and military limitations will discourage Israel from starting a long-term campaign in Yemen, but increased coordination among pro-Iranian militias could escalate the conflict.

Competing Military Goals and Geographical Constraints Limit Israel's Campaign in Yemen

U.S. President Joe Biden on Nov. 1, 2023, in Washington.

U.S. President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris make her the likely Democratic candidate. While any Democratic president would face significant obstacles in enacting policy due to legislative and judicial constraints, foreign policy positions would remain largely aligned with Biden's, particularly on China, Russia and NATO. 

What Biden's Withdrawal Means for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Energy

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Fiji

Indonesia

Japan

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

The U.S. Biden administration lifted a ban on the sale of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 9.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Lifts Ban on Sale of Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in on Aug. 8 as the chief adviser of Bangladesh, a role equivalent to prime minister, alongside other members of the interim government, Prothom Alo reported the next day.

Bangladesh: Interim Government Members Sworn In

Science & Technology

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided to stay home from his trip to Mongolia and an Aug. 9-12 Central Asia summit due to an Aug. 8 warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency about a heightened possibility of a "megaquake" originating from the Nankai Trough that could heavily damage Japan’s southeastern seaboard, Nikkei Asia reported on Aug. 9.

Japan: Megaquake Fears Keep Kishida Home as Elections Loom

Russia appears to have already moved some units that were supporting advances inside Ukraine to counteract Ukrainian forces' incursion into Russia's Kursk region, Agenstvo reported on Aug. 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Incursion Into Russia Draws Forces Recently Deployed Inside Ukraine

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that his government is planning to reduce the principal payment on a Eurobond maturing in December 2024 from $1 billion to $800 million, effectively delivering a 20% nominal haircut, Bloomberg reported Aug. 8.

Ethiopia: PM Proposes 20% Haircut to Eurobond Holders as Birr Crashes by 90% Since Free-Float 

Israel will dispatch negotiators to resume cease-fire/hostage talks with the Palestinian militant group Hamas in either Cairo, Egypt, or Doha, Qatar, on Aug. 15, in a move that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office described as an attempt to "finalize the details for implementing the framework agreement," The Times of Israel reported on Aug. 9.

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Talks To Resume on Aug. 15

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Cyber

The United Nation's Ad Hoc Committee on Cybercrime adopted a new cybercrime treaty -- the United Nations Convention Against Cybercrime -- with a unanimous vote, The Record reported on Aug. 8. 

Global: U.N. Passes New Cybercrime Treaty Despite Western Concerns About Human Rights

Three trade and payment sources, including a manager at a large Russian bank, claimed Russia and China were considering using the barter system to limit exposure to U.S. financial sanctions, with a barter system in agricultural goods possible this fall, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.

China: Can the Barter System Beat Western Sanctions?

Data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that in July, new energy vehicles (NEVs), including electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, comprised 50.7% of passenger cars sold in China, surpassing other kinds of cars for the first time, Reuters reported on Aug. 8.

China: Sales of New Energy Vehicles Surpass Other Vehicles for First Time

El Salvador

The International Monetary Fund and El Salvador's government reached "preliminary understandings" on a program to strengthen the country's medium-term growth prospects and economic resilience, the IMF said in an Aug. 6 statement.

El Salvador: Government Talks With IMF Make Progress

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Will Economic Liberalization Be Enough To Attract Foreign Investment in Kazakhstan?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Lifts Ban on Sale of Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

Bangladesh: Interim Government Members Sworn In

Japan: Megaquake Fears Keep Kishida Home as Elections Loom

Russia, Ukraine: Incursion Into Russia Draws Forces Recently Deployed Inside Ukraine

Ethiopia: PM Proposes 20% Haircut to Eurobond Holders as Birr Crashes by 90% Since Free-Float

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Talks To Resume on Aug. 15

Global: U.N. Passes New Cybercrime Treaty Despite Western Concerns About Human Rights

China: Can the Barter System Beat Western Sanctions?

China: Sales of New Energy Vehicles Surpass Other Vehicles for First Time

El Salvador: Government Talks With IMF Make Progress

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