Snapshots

United States

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

Economics

Politics

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Assessments

Brazil

France

United Kingdom

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

China

Energy

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Vietnam

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025. 

The deal reduces planned U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, but the lack of key details also introduces significant compliance uncertainty and investment risks that could ripple across Asian supply chains. 

The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Russia

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025. 

Social Issues

New clarity over the 90-year-old spiritual leader's succession plans threatens to reignite Western criticism of China's treatment of Tibetans and revive reputational risks for Western businesses active in China.

Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West

U.S.-China Relations

Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.

The reduction in provincial- and commune-level units will initially create bureaucratic headaches, but if implemented effectively, the changes set the stage for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency, reduced corruption and improved investment conditions.

Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions

Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Without new supplies of U.S. Patriot interceptors and precision-guided munitions, Ukraine will struggle to defend against Russia's escalating aerial attacks, which could eventually force it into an unfavorable peace deal.

Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries

Latest

Japan

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

Japan's upper house elections will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will stay in power and -- if so -- how easily it will be able to pursue its key policy goals.

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Europe

Georgian anti-government demonstrators attempt to block a highway entrance to the capital Tbilisi on Feb. 2, 2025

The government's efforts to suppress the opposition risk roiling its relations with the West, triggering more mass protests, and potentially enabling Russia to expand its influence in Georgia.

Georgia's Crackdown on Dissent Risks Drawing It Closer to Russia and Alienating the West

Lithuania

Germany

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) speaks during a peace agreement signing ceremony between Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner (R) and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, D.C., on June 27, 2025. 

The peace agreement opens Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo up to significant economic opportunities, but disagreements over interpretation and continued proxy violence risk stalling the deal’s implementation.

A Fragile Peace Takes Shape Between Congo and Rwanda

Argentina

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Syria

Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Colombia

A government security report found that as of the end of June 2025, armed groups had expanded by an estimated 45% since President Gustavo Petro took office in mid-2022, Reuters reported on July 8.

Colombia: Armed Groups Expanded Significantly Under Petro

Cyber

Science & Technology

An Iranian-linked ransomware group is offering large financial payouts to affiliates that target Israeli and U.S. organizations, according to a new report by Israeli-based cybersecurity company Morphisec published on July 8.

Cyberspace: Iranian-Linked Ransomware Group Offers High Payout To Target Israeli, U.S. Entities

Canada

Philippines

The Philippines announced its visiting forces agreement with Canada is ready for signing, Bloomberg reported on July 9.

Philippines, Canada: Troop Pact Nears as Manila Builds Deterrence Against China

On July 8, the U.S. Trump administration announced it would ban Chinese nationals and other foreign adversaries from purchasing U.S. farmland, citing national security concerns, AFP reported the next day. 

U.S., China: Washington To Pursue Ban on Chinese Purchases of Farmland

Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, announced that the militant group's armed struggle against Turkey had ended and called for a transition to democratic politics in a video message, Reuters reported on July 9.

Turkey, Iraq: PKK Leader Announced End to Armed Struggle, Political Transition

EU lawmakers voted to remove the United Arab Emirates and seven other countries from the European Union's money laundering "grey list," the Financial Times reported on July 9. 

EU, UAE: EU To Remove UAE From Money Laundering 'Grey List'

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the United States' planned imposition of 30% tariffs on South Africa is "subject to modification" as his government advances trade negotiations with the Trump administration, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

South Africa: Ramaphosa Pushes for Fresh Negotiations With U.S. After Trump Imposes 30% Tariffs

Gabon

Guinea Bissau

Liberia

Mauritania

Senegal

The heads of state of Gabon, Senegal, Mauritania, Guinea Bissau and Liberia will attend a luncheon and hold bilateral meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump during their visit to the United States on July 9-11, Radio France Internationale reported on July 9.

Africa: Trump To Meet Heads of State of Gabon, Four West African Countries

Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.

Despite recent progress, Argentina's economic and financial position remains vulnerable over the medium term.

The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

French financial police searched the Paris headquarters of the far-right National Rally party as part of a probe into suspected campaign finance violations, party leader Jordan Bardella announced on July 9 in a post on X, denouncing the operation as politically driven.

France: French Authorities Raid Far-Right National Rally Party Offices

Saudi Arabia's government announced on July 8 that it will allow foreigners to own real estate in limited areas in Jeddah and Riyadh starting in 2026, with strong blocks remaining for Mecca and Medina, Bloomberg reported on July 9.

Saudi Arabia: Government Approves Limited Foreign Property Ownership

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Colombia: Armed Groups Expanded Significantly Under Petro

Cyberspace: Iranian-Linked Ransomware Group Offers High Payout To Target Israeli, U.S. Entities

Philippines, Canada: Troop Pact Nears as Manila Builds Deterrence Against China

U.S., China: Washington To Pursue Ban on Chinese Purchases of Farmland

Turkey, Iraq: PKK Leader Announced End to Armed Struggle, Political Transition

EU, UAE: EU To Remove UAE From Money Laundering 'Grey List'

South Africa: Ramaphosa Pushes for Fresh Negotiations With U.S. After Trump Imposes 30% Tariffs

Africa: Trump To Meet Heads of State of Gabon, Four West African Countries

France: French Authorities Raid Far-Right National Rally Party Offices

Saudi Arabia: Government Approves Limited Foreign Property Ownership

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support