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On Geopolitics

United States

China

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Politics

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

Mozambique

Syria

France

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

What is the future trajectory of the peace process?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of Cancelled Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

U.S.-Iran Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 19, 2024

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a news broadcast on a television at a train station in Seoul on Dec. 3, 2024, after Yoon declared emergency martial law.

Despite lawmakers voting to impeach the president, there is still ample room for more political tumult in the months ahead, keeping South Korea's economic and foreign policy trajectory in limbo.

Yoon's Impeachment Opens a New Chapter in South Korea's Saga of Political Instability

Argentina

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Bangladesh

When can we expect elections in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina's resignation?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Bangladeshi Politics

A man carries a Turkish national flag as Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather along the frontlines opposite Kurdish forces near the town of Dadat in Syria's northern Aleppo province, on July 5, 2022. 

Turkey will seek to exert its influence over Syria's new leaders to prevent Kurdish autonomy, promote Turkish business interests and facilitate the return of refugees.

Turkey Is Poised to Reap the Benefits of a New Order in Syria

Germany

Russia

A sign reading ''leader of insurgents'' on a photo of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's face is held up during a protest calling for Yoon's ouster in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 8, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin's Annual Press Conference, Another Impeachment Vote in South Korea

Latest

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

The Geopolitics of Water

North Africa will struggle to combat its worsening drought amid overconsumption, mismanagement and technological shortcomings.

The Geopolitics of Water: A Prolonged Drought Dries Up North Africa's Resources

Iran

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

Snapshots

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Lebanon

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Global Elections

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Ukraine

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China will issue 3 trillion yuan (about $411 billion) worth of treasury bonds in 2025, Reuters reported Dec. 24. The move is likely intended to revive consumer sentiment and help businesses in the country.

China: Beijing To Issue $411 Billion of Treasury Bonds in 2025

South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party has prepared an impeachment motion against Prime Minister and acting President Han Duck-soo over his vetoes of two special counsel bills against suspended President Yook Suk Yeol and his wife, First Lady Kim Keon Hee, Yonhap News Agency reported Dec. 24.

South Korea: Opposition Threatens To Impeach Acting President

Yemen

Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that Israel would strike Houthi leaders after another Yemeni missile targeted the Tel Aviv area on Dec. 24, the Times of Israel reported the same day.

Israel, Yemen: Israel's Defense Chief Vows Assassination Campaign Against Houthi Leadership

Pakistan

The United States, United Kingdom and European Union criticized Pakistan for trying 25 civilians in military courts following attacks on military facilities in 2023 after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, AP reported on Dec. 24.

Pakistan: U.S., U.K. and EU Raise Concerns Over Pakistan's Military Court Sentencing of Civilians

Ethiopia

Somalia

Ethiopia denied accusations by Somalia's federal government that Ethiopian security forces had conducted an "unprovoked" attack on Somali security forces in the border town of Dolow, Jubaland state, Addis Standard reported Dec.24.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town 

Some leaders of former rebel factions in Syria have agreed to dissolve various groups and merge under the new government's Ministry of Defense, Reuters reported Dec. 24.

Syria: Various Rival Armed Factions to Dissolve, Merge Under Ministry of Defense

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has unveiled his government, which consists mostly of centrist and conservative lawmakers, Reuters reported on Dec. 23.

France: French Prime Minister Bayrou Unveils His Government

El Salvador

Science & Technology

El Salvador's Congress overturned a blanket ban on mining, which has been in force since 2017, Reuters reported Dec. 23.

El Salvador: Lift of Mining Ban to Create Business Opportunities but Pose Regulatory, Reputational Risks

The 2025 National Defense Authorization Act signed on Dec. 23 by President Joe Biden allocates $3 billion to a 2020 FCC "rip and replace" provision to help telecom firms remove and replace equipment in response to ongoing Chinese hacking campaigns, The Record reported Dec. 24. 

United States: Cyber Provisions in Defense Bill Include Efforts to Prevent Chinese Hacks

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Myanmar

Myanmar's Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organization in the country's western state of Rakhine, claimed to have captured Ann township, a strategic victory edging the group closer to control over the entire state, Nikkei Asia reported Dec. 23.

Myanmar: Following Losses in the North, More of West Falls to Rebels

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China: Beijing To Issue $411 Billion of Treasury Bonds in 2025

South Korea: Opposition Threatens To Impeach Acting President

Israel, Yemen: Israel's Defense Chief Vows Assassination Campaign Against Houthi Leadership

Pakistan: U.S., U.K. and EU Raise Concerns Over Pakistan's Military Court Sentencing of Civilians

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia Denies Accusations by Somalia of Attack on Border Town

Syria: Various Rival Armed Factions to Dissolve, Merge Under Ministry of Defense

France: French Prime Minister Bayrou Unveils His Government

El Salvador: Lift of Mining Ban to Create Business Opportunities but Pose Regulatory, Reputational Risks

United States: Cyber Provisions in Defense Bill Include Efforts to Prevent Chinese Hacks

Myanmar: Following Losses in the North, More of West Falls to Rebels

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