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Middle East and North Africa

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Energy

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Trace the hidden chain reaction from a closed Strait of Hormuz to a local bakery line, and discover how a Middle East energy shock can quietly turn into a global food crisis.

The Decision Advantage: The Foreseen Effects of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

Assessments

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Iran

Israel

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Europe

Colombia's President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella (R) delivers a speech during a military parade commemorating Colombia's Independence Day in Medellin, Colombia, on July 20, 2026. 

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Colombia's New President Takes Office, Brussels Gains AI Act Enforcement Powers

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 30, 2026

Snapshots

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

China

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro (center) and other leaders leave after a group photo session on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Manila on July 24, 2026.

The meetings in Manila produced talks but no immediate collective action on critical regional issues like the Iran war's energy shock, intensifying South China Sea tensions and the Myanmar civil war.

ASEAN Meetings Make Little Headway on Pressing Energy and Security Issues

Iraq

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) speaks during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi (2nd-L) in the Oval Office of the White House on July 14, 2026.

While the Iraqi prime minister's visit to the White House yielded some deals, implementation constraints will likely eventually lead to renewed U.S. economic pressure, further straining Baghdad's finances.

New U.S. Agreements Unlikely to Ease Iraq's Economic Woes

Chile

Chilean lawmakers in Congress celebrate at the end of the voting session on the economic reform bill on July 21, 2026.

Chile is poised to soon enact one of its broadest economic reform packages in decades, which will likely boost investor confidence and regulatory certainty, but at the expense of rising fiscal pressures.

What To Expect as Chile Prepares to Enact Sweeping Economic Reform Bill

Columns

On Security

This photo illustration shows the ChatGPT logo at an office in Washington, D.C., on March 15, 2023.

The autonomous targeting of Hugging Face by OpenAI's models highlights the urgent need for organizations to prepare for advanced cyberattacks orchestrated entirely by AI agents.

Beyond the Hype of Autonomous AI Breaches

Spain

Supporters of the far-right Vox party wave flags and shout slogans during a protest against Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Madrid, on June 13, 2025.

Social Issues

Strict constitutional restrictions and EU institutional oversight would significantly constrain a future right-wing government's ability to implement sweeping institutional changes.

What the Far-Right Vox Entering Government Would Mean for Spain's Security and Society

Peru

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

Turkey

Demonstrators yell through a megaphone and hold a framed portrait of the ousted Republican People's Party (CHP) chairman, Ogur Ozel, during an opposition rally in Izmir, Turkey, on May 24, 2026. 

The split could reduce the opposition's competitiveness in the 2028 general elections and further embolden Erdogan to pursue another term via constitutional or electoral mechanisms.

Turkey's Main Opposition Party Splits, Casting Uncertainty Over Efforts to Oust Erdogan

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemeni protesters take part in a demonstration held to send a message of defiance against the continued siege and any military escalation involving Saudi forces against Houthi-controlled northern Yemen on July 17. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Forced to bypass the disrupted Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's increased reliance on alternative routes leaves its critical oil shipments vulnerable to Houthi attacks.


Yemen's Houthis Threaten Saudi Oil Exports With Red Sea Blockade

Latest

Ethiopia

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

India

(From left to right) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa attend a plenary session at the BRICS summit in Kazan on Oct. 24, 2024.

The bloc's push to develop an independent payment system for trade will not immediately undermine the U.S. dollar's global dominance, though it could reduce the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions.

The Implications of an Independent BRICS Payment System

France

Firefighters spray water along the edge of a forest during a wildfire in southwestern France on July 25, 2026. 

While unlikely to be electorally decisive in either country, the crisis will heighten scrutiny of both governments' crisis management and elevate climate adaptation, emergency preparedness and civil protection as key national and EU policy priorities.

The Political and Security Impact of the Wildfires in France and Spain

Damaged structures are seen at the site of a U.S.-Saudi strike against Iran-backed militias in Bartalla, northern Iraq, on July 29, 2026. 

As the conflict picks back up, Trump must decide whether to offer Iran major concessions, which would alienate hawkish Republicans at home, or escalate military operations at the risk of reigniting a broader regional war.

Trump Once Again Weighs His Options Against Iran

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

A giant Indian flag is displayed from the country's embassy in London on May 7, 2025.

While the agreement will support both countries' economic diversification efforts, U.K. regulatory standards and supply chain challenges will limit some gains for India.

What To Expect as the India-U.K. Trade Deal Enters Force

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

A large container ship is seen docked at a port. 

Though interim measures or narrower agreements are plausible, Vietnam's dependence on Chinese inputs will likely prevent a comprehensive agreement, potentially exposing it to stricter U.S. scrutiny and new tariffs.

Vietnam's Reliance on Chinese Imports Complicates U.S. Trade Talks

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

Kenya

The Orange Democratic Movement party, or ODM, announced that it would form a technical committee with Kenya's ruling United Democratic Alliance party, or UDA, with ODM leader Oburu Odinga stating that the party would not field a presidential candidate of its own in Kenya's August 2027 general election and would instead support Kenyan President William Ruto's reelection bid, Daily Nation reported on Aug. 2.

Kenya: ODM Announces Plan for Joint Manifesto With Ruto's UDA

Eritrea

Sudan

The Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, accused the Ethiopian government of launching a new military offensive and said clashes had erupted between its forces and pro-government forces in the locality of Shererina in the western part of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, located near the border with Sudan, Addis Standard reported on Aug. 1. 

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Japan

Japan's finance ministry confirmed on Aug. 3 that the U.S. and Japanese governments had coordinated on July 31 for Washington to buy Japanese yen to bolster the currency, the first such intervention since 1998.

Japan, U.S.: Governments Coordinate To Buy Yen for First Time Since 1998

A letter signed by 22 EU leaders on Aug. 1 criticized Spain's migration policies, blaming Madrid's regularization scheme as a pull factor and calling for stronger external borders and more effective returns, after tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta on July 30, Reuters reported the same day.

Spain, EU: Spain and Schengen Under Pressure Following Ceuta Migrant Crisis

Oman

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson denied U.S. President Donald Trump's claim that the United States and Iran would begin talks on Aug. 3, but confirmed that Iran was involved in discussions with Oman over establishing a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Aug. 3. 

U.S., Iran: Iran Refutes Trump's Claims of New U.S.-Iran Talks

The center-right Barisan Nasional, or BN, coalition -- which governs alongside Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's center-left Pakatan Harapan, or PH, coalition as a junior partner at the federal level -- joined forces with the opposition Islamist-led Perikatan Nasional, or PN, coalition to win 25 of Negeri Sembilan's 36 seats in the Aug. 1 state election, Channel News Asia reported the same day.

Malaysia: Another State Loss for Prime Minister's Coalition Makes Snap Election Less Likely

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's spokesperson, Doron Spielman, expressed skepticism about the viability of the U.S.-backed Hamas disarmament plan, saying Israel remained convinced Hamas would rearm and attack again should Israel withdraw from Gaza in the near future, AP reported on Aug. 2.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Strikes Gaza as Tensions Bubble Over Disarmament Deal

Kuwait

OPEC+ agreed on Aug. 2 to boost production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in September, fully unwinding the bloc's 2023 voluntary production cuts.

OPEC+: Bloc Unwinds Final Voluntary Production Cuts

Science & Technology

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Libya

United Arab Emirates

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

The International Monetary Fund completed reviews of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility, agreeing to disburse nearly $1.8 billion, Reuters reported on July 30.

Egypt: IMF To Disburse Nearly $1.8B Following Reviews

Cuba

Cuba announced new plans to open up the private sector, including allowing businesses to import fuel and medication and allowing private tourist companies to more easily operate on the island, Reuters reported on July 30.

Cuba: Government Further Opens Economy to Private Industry

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Implications of an Independent BRICS Payment System

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya: ODM Announces Plan for Joint Manifesto With Ruto's UDA

Ethiopia: Clashes Erupt Between Military and TPLF in Western Tigray, Spill Over Into Sudan

Japan, U.S.: Governments Coordinate To Buy Yen for First Time Since 1998

Spain, EU: Spain and Schengen Under Pressure Following Ceuta Migrant Crisis

U.S., Iran: Iran Refutes Trump's Claims of New U.S.-Iran Talks

Malaysia: Another State Loss for Prime Minister's Coalition Makes Snap Election Less Likely

Israel, Gaza: Israel Strikes Gaza as Tensions Bubble Over Disarmament Deal

OPEC+: Bloc Unwinds Final Voluntary Production Cuts

Egypt: IMF To Disburse Nearly $1.8B Following Reviews

Cuba: Government Further Opens Economy to Private Industry

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