Assessments

Liberia

United States

Australia

Germany

United Kingdom

The U.S. Capitol. 

Cyber

Energy

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. House Attempts to Elect a New Speaker, a Possible LNG Strike in Australia

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Will there be opportunities for companies to hedge against cyber risks? 

RANE Insights: The Future of Cyber Insurance

Syria

People protest in the southern Syrian city of Sweida on Sept. 1, 2023, after the government of President Bashar al Assad ended fuel subsidies.

Military & Security

Growing economic distress and frozen reconstruction efforts are threatening the legitimacy of established actors, providing space for extremists to exploit.

Syria's Economic Woes Create New Fractures and Power Struggles

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 5, 2023

Serbia

Kosovo

NATO soldiers serving in Kosovo patrol next to a road barricade set up by ethnic Serbs near the town of Zubin Potok on Aug. 1, 2022. 

The Balkan neighbors' latest flare-up in tensions will undermine an EU-brokered normalization plan and risks spurring more violence in northern Kosovo.

Are Serbia and Kosovo Headed for Another War?

North Korea

How will North Korea's cyber strategy continue to evolve?

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on North Korean Cyber Activity

Snapshots

China

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) talks to reporters following the weekly Senate Democratic policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 28, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The myriad constraints on deeper U.S.-China cooperation mean the trip is unlikely to yield tangible results, beyond reopening an avenue for dialogue that COVID-19 had largely closed. 

Setting Expectations for the First U.S. Congressional Visit to China in Years

U.S.-China Relations

Slovakia

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico waits to meet the country's president in Bratislava on Oct. 2, 2023, following his Smer party's victory in Slovakia's Sept. 30 snap election. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Upcoming coalition talks will likely yield a more Eurosceptic government that could reduce the country's political and military aid to Kyiv.

What Slovakia's Election Results Mean for Its Political Future and Support for Ukraine

Turkey

Europe

Armenia

Azerbaijan

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Maldives

India

 A commuter in Male, the Maldives, takes pictures of a decorated wall along a street ahead of the country's presidential election on Sept. 6, 2023.

The Sept. 30 presidential race will decipher whether New Delhi or Beijing has more influence over the strategic island nation in the Indian Ocean.

An Election Runoff Could Alter the Maldives' Balance Between China and India

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Kiribati

Marshall Islands

Nauru

New Zealand

Palau

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

Tonga

Tuvalu

Vanuatu

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marapeand, the Cook Islands' Prime Minister Mark Brown, U.S. President Joe Biden and Kiribati's President Taneti Maamau at the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) as part of the U.S.-PIF summit at the White House on Sept. 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Despite Washington's desire to strengthen ties with Pacific island nations, political constraints may leave a regional void that China is happy to fill.

Strategic Goals and Political Hurdles in the U.S. Play Tug-of-War Over the Pacific Islands

Latest

Mexico

In an aerial view, migrants are seen grouped together while waiting to be processed on the Mexican side of the border in El Paso, Texas, on Sept. 21, 2023. 

The influx of migrants trying to enter the U.S. from Mexico is creating supply chain bottlenecks and fueling pre-election political tensions in both countries.

The Political and Economic Implications of the U.S.-Mexico Border Crisis

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Damage caused by Israeli airstrikes Oct. 7, 2023, in Gaza City, Gaza, in response to a Hamas-led incursion into Israel. A large-scale Hamas attack threatens to significantly escalate conflict between Israel and the militant groups. 

Violence could spread from Gaza to the West Bank, and attacks from Lebanon and unrest within Israel proper are also possible.

How the Hamas Surprise Attack From Gaza on Israel Could Play Out

A stock photo shows a map of China on digital display.

To comply with Beijing's strict data rules, large multinational companies are insulating their Chinese business from their global operations -- something smaller firms will struggle to do.

In China, Growing Oversight Prompts Foreign Firms to Silo Their Operations

A campaign poster for Liberian President George Weah is seen above a street in Monrovia, Liberia, on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The Oct. 10 vote will open the door to fraud allegations and a potential presidential runoff that could spark a resumption of election-related violence in the small West African country.

Previewing Liberia's General Election

Burkina Faso

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Spain

The prime minister's re-appointment would portend policy continuity and cordial ties between Madrid and Catalonia, but it'd also deepen the country's political polarization.

What Another Term Under Sanchez Would Mean for Spain

Columns

On Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Sub-Saharan Africa

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

Russia

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

The Palestinian militant organization Hamas launched a major attack against Israel early Oct. 7, firing thousands of rockets and sending militants across the border from the Gaza Strip into Israel, The Times of Israel reported.

Israel: Hamas Launches Major Surprise Attack

The Biden administration announced on Oct. 5 that it would build sections of border wall in Starr county, Texas, saying that the appropriation of funds for the project in 2019 by the previous Trump administration legally requires the construction to be completed, AP reported on Oct. 6.

U.S., Mexico: Mexico Criticizes U.S. Plans to Build Border Wall

Two groups of Chevron workers at Australia's Gorgon and Wheatstone liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities voted to restart strikes within 24 hours of each other, Reuters reported Oct. 6.

Australia: Chevron LNG Workers Vote to Go Back on Strike

El Salvador

Salvadoran security forces move a second group of 2,000 detainees overnight to the mega-prison Terrorist Confinement Center on March 15, 2023, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. 

Social Issues

El Salvador's successful state of emergency could convince other regional countries to attempt the same strategy, leading to safety, reputational and migratory risks.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 2

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 28, 2023

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

Ghana

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ghanaian government reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of the $3 billion loan program, which will enable the disbursement of $600 million in relief funds once it is approved, Reuters reported on Oct. 6.

Ghana: Government, IMF Reach Staff-Level Agreement on First Review

The United Kingdom's main opposition Labour Party won the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in Scotland by a wide margin, with Labour candidate Michael Shanks securing 58.6% of the votes against the 27.6% won by the second-place Scottish National Party (SNP) candidate Katy Loudon, Reuters reported on Oct. 6.

U.K.: Conservative Party Suffers Heavy Defeat in Local Elections

Russian Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the State Duma lower house of parliament would swiftly consider if there was a need to revoke Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), Reuters reported Oct. 6. 

U.S., Russia: Moscow Preparing to Deratify Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Venezuela

Venezuela's prosecutor's office issued an arrest warrant on Oct. 5 for former opposition leader Juan Guaido, DW News reported the next day.

Venezuela: Prosecutor's Office Issues Arrest Warrant for Former Opposition Leader Juan Gaudo

France

France rejected U.S.-based Flowserve's proposed acquisition of nuclear parts suppliers Segault and Velan S.A.S, Velan's French subsidiaries, the French Economy Ministry said on Oct. 6.

France: Paris Blocks U.S. Takeover of Nuclear Parts Supplier

Sweden

Turkish and U.S. defense heads Yasar Guler and Lloyd Austin spoke by phone about regional coordination after the United States downed a Turkish drone over Syria, and Turkey's Foreign Ministry has declined to blame the United States for the drone incident, the Daily Sabah reported on Oct. 5.

Turkey, U.S.: Defense Chiefs Hold Call as Turkey Strikes More YPG Targets

Iran

Iraq

The Central Bank of Iraq plans to halt U.S. dollar cash withdrawals and transactions beginning Jan. 1, 2024, to curb illicit cash flows from Iraq to Iran and combat financial crimes, Reuters reported on Oct. 5.

Iraq: Baghdad Will Stop USD Cash Withdrawals in 2024 to Combat Corruption

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How the Hamas Surprise Attack From Gaza on Israel Could Play Out

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel: Hamas Launches Major Surprise Attack

U.S., Mexico: Mexico Criticizes U.S. Plans to Build Border Wall

Australia: Chevron LNG Workers Vote to Go Back on Strike

Ghana: Government, IMF Reach Staff-Level Agreement on First Review

U.K.: Conservative Party Suffers Heavy Defeat in Local Elections

U.S., Russia: Moscow Preparing to Deratify Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

Venezuela: Prosecutor's Office Issues Arrest Warrant for Former Opposition Leader Juan Gaudo

France: Paris Blocks U.S. Takeover of Nuclear Parts Supplier

Turkey, U.S.: Defense Chiefs Hold Call as Turkey Strikes More YPG Targets

Iraq: Baghdad Will Stop USD Cash Withdrawals in 2024 to Combat Corruption

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