Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025

Snapshots

China

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

Social Issues

New clarity over the 90-year-old spiritual leader's succession plans threatens to reignite Western criticism of China's treatment of Tibetans and revive reputational risks for Western businesses active in China.

Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West

U.S.-China Relations

Vietnam

Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.

Economics

The reduction in provincial- and commune-level units will initially create bureaucratic headaches, but if implemented effectively, the changes set the stage for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency, reduced corruption and improved investment conditions.

Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions

Ukraine

Russia

A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Without new supplies of U.S. Patriot interceptors and precision-guided munitions, Ukraine will struggle to defend against Russia's escalating aerial attacks, which could eventually force it into an unfavorable peace deal.

Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) speaks during a peace agreement signing ceremony between Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner (R) and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, D.C., on June 27, 2025. 

The peace agreement opens Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo up to significant economic opportunities, but disagreements over interpretation and continued proxy violence risk stalling the deal’s implementation.

A Fragile Peace Takes Shape Between Congo and Rwanda

Argentina

Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.

Despite recent progress, Argentina's economic and financial position remains vulnerable over the medium term.

The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Iran

Israel

Australia

Japan

India

A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Pakistan

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair. 

Energy

Despite the ceasefire, the risk of a renewed conflict remains, which could again drive oil prices higher if Iran and/or its proxies begin attacking regional oil infrastructure and shipping.

Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War

Latest

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025. 

The deal reduces planned U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, but the lack of key details also introduces significant compliance uncertainty and investment risks that could ripple across Asian supply chains. 

The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Georgia

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

New Zealand

People are seen behind a New Zealand flag during a ceremony celebrating the anniversary of Anzac Day. 

Prime Minister Luxon's recent trip to China marked a high-stakes diplomatic mission aimed at both deepening economic ties with Beijing and signaling New Zealand's more assertive regional posture.

New Zealand's Pivot: Assertive Defense Meets Economic Dependence on China

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Iraq

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Afghanistan

Russia's presidential envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, announced that Russia had officially recognized the Taliban-run Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, making it the first country in the world to do so, RIA Novosti reported on July 3.

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government 

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Executive director of the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime Ghada Fathi Waly told the U.N. Security Council that Haiti's gangs have "near-total control" of the capital Port-au-Prince, holding an estimated 90% of the city, AP reported on July 2.

Haiti: U.N. Reports Haitian Gangs Have 'Near-Total Control' of Port-au-Prince

Venezuela

Liechtenstein

Norway

Switzerland

Iceland

South America's Mercosur trade bloc and the European Free Trade Association, or EFTA, finalized a free trade agreement that will cover 97% of shipments between the entities, Reuters reported on July 2. 

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

Cyber

Science & Technology

Representatives from more than 45 European organizations jointly issued a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requesting a two-year hiatus on the enforcement of upcoming regulations under the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, Bloomberg reported on July 3.

EU: European Companies Ask Commission To Delay Enforcement of AI Act

North Korea

Ukrainian intelligence suggested North Korea would deploy 25,000-30,000 additional troops to fight alongside Russian forces in the Ukraine war, according to CNN on July 3.

North Korea, Russia: More North Korean Troops To Join Russians in Ukraine War

Egypt

Libya

Greece

Egypt asked the United States to press Libyan National Army field marshal Khalifa Hifter and Libya's eastern parliament not to approve the 2019 Turkey-Libya agreement establishing their maritime border, Middle East Eye reported on July 2.

Libya: Egypt Pushes U.S. To Pressure Eastern Libya Not To Ratify 2019 Libya-Turkey Maritime Agreement

Indonesia

Indonesia will sign a $34 billion deal with U.S. companies on July 7 to increase U.S. imports and investment in a bid to avoid the threatened 32% U.S. tariff rate on its exports before the July 9 deadline, Reuters reported on July 3.

Indonesia, U.S., Saudi Arabia: Jakarta Pursues Bilateral Deals To Mitigate, Hedge Against Tariff Risks

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 26, 2025

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A Hamas-run court reportedly gave the leader of the Israeli-backed Popular Forces gang, Yasser Abu Shabab, 10 days to surrender in preparation to be tried for treason and collaboration, according to statements posted by the group on social media on July 3.

Gaza: Hamas Cracks Down on Israeli-Backed Criminal Gang

The United States reached a trade deal with Vietnam that will see Washington lower its proposed 46% tariff rate on Vietnamese goods to 20% in exchange for Vietnam cutting tariffs on U.S. goods to zero, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a July 2 post on Truth Social.

Vietnam, U.S.: Hanoi Avoids 46% Tariffs With Trade Deal, but Lower Rate Still Spells Risk

Mexico

Mexico's Senate approved a package of security bills on June 30 and July 1 intended to bolster the government's ability to combat organized crime groups, El Pais reported on July 1.

Mexico: Senate Approves Security Bills

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government

Haiti: U.N. Reports Haitian Gangs Have 'Near-Total Control' of Port-au-Prince

South America, Europe: Mercosur- EFTA Free Trade Agreement Finalized Amid U.S. Protectionism

EU: European Companies Ask Commission To Delay Enforcement of AI Act

North Korea, Russia: More North Korean Troops To Join Russians in Ukraine War

Libya: Egypt Pushes U.S. To Pressure Eastern Libya Not To Ratify 2019 Libya-Turkey Maritime Agreement

Indonesia, U.S., Saudi Arabia: Jakarta Pursues Bilateral Deals To Mitigate, Hedge Against Tariff Risks

Gaza: Hamas Cracks Down on Israeli-Backed Criminal Gang

Vietnam, U.S.: Hanoi Avoids 46% Tariffs With Trade Deal, but Lower Rate Still Spells Risk

Mexico: Senate Approves Security Bills

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