Assessments

United Kingdom

Andy Burnham delivers a speech on June 29, 2026, in Manchester, England. 

Economics

Politics

As prime minister, Andy Burnham will likely maintain continuity on fiscal, foreign and defense policies within tight budget and market constraints, along with an incremental approach to EU relations.

Previewing Burnham's Premiership in the U.K.

United States

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Europe

France

Ukraine

Russia

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 9, 2026

Snapshots

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

Energy

Global Trade

Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

U.S.-Iran Relations

Morocco

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Environment, Science & Technology

The state-owned OCP Group is accelerating domestic green ammonia projects and diversifying sulfur suppliers to secure its position as a dominant agricultural and diplomatic partner across sub-Saharan Africa.

Morocco, World's Leading Phosphate Exporter, Seeks To Mitigate Strategic Vulnerabilities

North Macedonia

Serbia

Croatia

Albania

Slovenia

Kosovo

Protestors hold national flags as they gather outside Albania's prime minister's office to oppose the construction of luxury resorts, in Tirana on June 25.

Social Issues

Driven by grievances like corruption and declining public trust, protests in the Western Balkans have evolved into deep challenges to ruling elites.


The Implications of Serbia and Albania's Massive Protest Waves

Australia

China

Fiji

New Zealand

Vanuatu

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and Fiji Minister for Public Works, Transport and Meteorological Services, Ro Filipe Tuisawau (right) shake hands during the opening of the Vuvale Skills hub in Suva on July 6, 2026.

Australia's new pacts with Fiji and Vanuatu will strengthen barriers to Chinese military access, but persistent regional development needs and China's ability to project power without local basing will still provide space for Beijing to build influence.

Australia's Pacific Pacts Strengthen, but Don't Secure, Its Strategic Position Against China

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

South Asia

A thermometer reading a high temperature is shown over an image of Earth.

The compounding effects of the weather event and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are set to drive global inflation and strain agricultural output well into next year.


How the 2026 El Nino Climate Event Will Affect the Global Economy and Security

The NATO headquarters is seen in Brussels, Belgium.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey Hosts NATO Summit, Iran Buries Slain Supreme Leader

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Kenya

Protesters march outside Parliament to honor victims of the June 25, 2024, protest on June 25, 2026, in Nairobi, Kenya.

Despite declining public approval, President William Ruto remains well-positioned to leverage state resources and exploit opposition divisions to secure his standing ahead of next year's general election.


Kenyan Opposition Struggles To Unite Against Ruto Ahead of 2027 Elections

Latest

Germany

A German flag flutters in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany. 

The package of reforms aims to revive productivity and lift Europe's largest economy out of its multi-year slump, though the package's limited nature and global trade headwinds will limit the impact in the medium term.


Germany's Labor-Market Reforms Could Lead to Modest Economic Improvements

Journalists surround French far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen (center) as she arrives with National Rally president Jordan Bardella (third from right) for a campaign rally in La Fleche, France, on July 8, 2026.

With the launch of Le Pen's campaign, the National Rally appears set to win France's 2027 presidential election, signaling a coming policy shift toward EU confrontation and weaker NATO integration, though various constraints would temper implementation.

As Le Pen Returns to the Race, What Would a Far-Right Presidency Look Like in France?

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Spain

EU flags are displayed in the EU Council headquarters on July 9, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.

While the European Union is unlikely to adopt the Spanish plan, it could drive an incremental expansion of common borrowing for strategic priorities like defense and industrial competitiveness.


Spain Broaches EU Taboo With Common Debt Proposal

Sudan

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

Oman

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

South Korea

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung (left) and his wife disembark from the plane at Geneva Airport as they arrive to attend the G7 summit on June 16, 2026.

Lee's handling of the scandal and the resulting backlash could strengthen the conservative opposition and strain relations with the U.S. and Japan, but it could also facilitate closer ties with China.

Ballot Scandal Tests South Korean President Lee's Political, Foreign Policy Goals

An Iranian woman walks past a mural depicting Iran and the United States at the negotiation table, painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, on Feb. 6, 2026.

While the deal will reduce the immediate threat of renewed conflict, shipping through Hormuz will likely resume only gradually amid the risk that talks stall, flare-ups resume and vessels face renewed harassment.

U.S.-Iran Deal Pauses Conflict, but the Path to Peace Remains Fraught

Columns

On Geopolitics

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he would replace Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and overhaul his Cabinet as part of an updated political strategy, with Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi emerging as the frontrunner to succeed her, the Financial Times reported on July 12.

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

Nigeria

Nigeria's military announced on July 10 that it had rescued all 44 students and teachers abducted on May 15 from three schools in Osiire district, Oyo state, Al Jazeera reported on July 12.

Nigeria: Military Rescues 44 School Kidnaping Victims in Southwest Oyo State

Malaysia

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Harapan, or PH, bloc won just eight seats in Johor's state elections, down from 12, including just six for the Chinese Democratic Action Party, or DAP, within PH, down from 10, Reuters reported on July 11. 

Malaysia: Anwar Loses Ground in Johor, Raising Prospect of a Snap Election

In a Truth Social post on July 13, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States was reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports and would take a 20% fee from cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S., Iran: Trump Reimposes Blockade on Iran

India

Science & Technology

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Auckland, New Zealand, the two countries agreed to elevate bilateral ties to a strategic partnership and establish a comprehensive "Roadmap to 2030" encompassing cooperation across defense, maritime security, trade, agriculture, disaster management, tourism, sports, culture and science, The Hindu reported on July 12.

India, New Zealand: Governments Elevate Ties

Leaders of the "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine are meeting in Paris, France, on July 13, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attending, to discuss air and missile defense, missile production, joint exercises and Russia's shadow fleet, Le Monde reported the same day. 

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Uganda

The University of Oxford's Oxford Vaccine Group launched Phase I clinical trials for its ChAdOx1 BDBV vaccine against the Bundibugyo virus, which is responsible for an ongoing Ebola outbreak in the northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Reuters reported on July 13.

Congo: University of Oxford Launches Vaccine Trials for Bundibugyo Virus

Yemen

Saudi Arabia struck the runway of Yemen's Houthi-controlled Sanaa International Airport to prevent an Iranian civilian plane carrying a Houthi delegation from landing, AP reported on July 13.

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Saudis Strike Sanaa Airport, Houthis Vow Retaliation

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa extended the Madlanga Commission of Inquiry's deadline to submit its final report from Aug. 31 to Nov. 16, the South African Presidency said in a July 9 statement.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Delays Madlanga Report Deadline to November

Mali

Malian security forces, Russia's paramilitary Africa Corps and pro-government Tuareg militias regained control of the northern town of Anefis after a military convoy arrived, which resulted in severe clashes with al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, Radio France Internationale reported on July 9.

Mali: Pro-government Forces Retake Anefis Following Arrival of Resupply Convoy

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

Nigeria: Military Rescues 44 School Kidnaping Victims in Southwest Oyo State

Malaysia: Anwar Loses Ground in Johor, Raising Prospect of a Snap Election

U.S., Iran: Trump Reimposes Blockade on Iran

India, New Zealand: Governments Elevate Ties

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Congo: University of Oxford Launches Vaccine Trials for Bundibugyo Virus

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Saudis Strike Sanaa Airport, Houthis Vow Retaliation

South Africa: Ramaphosa Delays Madlanga Report Deadline to November

Mali: Pro-government Forces Retake Anefis Following Arrival of Resupply Convoy

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