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Chile

United States

Venezuela

Israel

Saudi Arabia

Cambodia

Thailand

India

Pakistan

People watch the USS Gravely, a Navy warship, departing the Port of Spain on Oct. 30, 2025. The U.S. warship arrived in Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 26, 2025, for joint exercises near the coast of Venezuela, as Washington ratcheted up pressure on drug traffickers and Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Saudi Meeting, Military Escalation in the Caribbean

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

A 3D logo of Vision 2030 from the obverse side of 200 Saudi Riyal banknote. Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

Economics

Facing ballooning costs and questionable viability, Saudi Arabia is scaling back giga-projects like Neom, signaling a new market-driven discipline that nonetheless leaves the state as the primary economic driver.

The Mixed Record of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030

Pakistan's armed forces march in the country's National Day parade in Islamabad on March 23, 2024. 

Pakistan's new constitutional amendment threatens to sow political division over growing military powers, a weakening judiciary and reduced civilian oversight.

Pakistan's New Constitutional Amendment Reforms the Military and Judiciary

Thailand's Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul (C) after chairing a National Security Council on Nov. 11 in Bangkok. An armed clash on the Thai-Cambodian border raises the risk of escalations that unwind the two countries' recent peace accord, though a return to full-scale war is less likely due to U.S. economic and security leverage.

While the most likely scenario is recurring but contained flare-ups through early 2026, a more escalatory scenario remains plausible.

More Clashes, but Not Full-blown Conflict, Likely on the Cambodian-Thai Frontier

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Nov. 12 at 10 Downing Street in central London. Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Growing internal divisions within the ruling Labour party over fiscal policy and declining popularity are increasing the likelihood of a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the November budget or May 2026 local elections.

Painful Upcoming Budget Likely To Amplify Starmer's Leadership Woes

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 13, 2025

Media

Podcasts

Why are Venezuela's relationships with Russia, Iran and China so important to the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: The Primary Drivers and Constraints of U.S.-Venezuela Tensions

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Energy

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

A screen is seen during the International military anti drone exercise Baltic Trust 25 (BATT25) at the Selonia (Selija) military training ground near Viesite on Aug. 27, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The European Union is pushing to develop continent-wide anti-drone capabilities, but financial, political and legal fragmentation will significantly slow progress and leave the bloc's defense vulnerable.

Despite Political Enthusiasm, EU Drone Defenses Face Obstacles to Implementation

Firefighters douse a car at the suicide blast site in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Nov. 11, 2025. 

While unlikely to trigger immediate retaliation, recent explosions in both New Delhi and Islamabad will sustain the risk of renewed cross-border strikes should either country determine the other was culpable.

Back-to-Back Blasts in India and Pakistan Raise Fears of Another Escalation

Burundi

Kenya

Rwanda

Tanzania

Uganda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Kenya and Tanzania's infrastructure buildup will support East Africa's industrialization but will also depend on a range of other factors, including regional integration, shifts in the international trading system and technological changes.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Race to Unlock East Africa, Part 2

Latest

Canada

The clock tower outside of Canada's parliament building is seen in Ottawa, Ontario.

Canada's push to revive its economy and diversify its trade and security ties beyond the U.S. will likely see slow progress and could prompt U.S. retaliation, while the associated deficit spending will risk long-term fiscal strain.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Kazakhstan

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The deals signed during Kazakh President Tokayev's recent trip to Moscow will provide Astana with short-term stability but will limit its strategic autonomy and ability to further engage with the West, while heightening its exposure to Russian coercion.

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

Sudan

Sudanese Armed Forces soldiers are seen on the now-disabled Shambat Bridge in Khartoum. 

While the likelihood of a humanitarian truce between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF is rising, meaningful progress beyond a tentative permanent ceasefire currently appears unlikely.

Sudan Slips Toward De Facto Partition

Palestinian Territories

Excavation crews work amid rubble in Hamad City, west of Khan Yunis, Gaza, on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The extended timeline for reconstruction ensures dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza will likely persist for years, fueling future radicalization and significant population displacement.

Gaza Reconstruction Likely To Take Years and Fuel Palestinian Emigration

Snapshots

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and China's President Xi Jinping leave after their talks at the Gimhae Air Base, in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The framework deal favors China by boosting its export competitiveness, but future escalations with the U.S. are likely over the coming year due to differing interpretations of the new measures and ongoing trade tensions.

China Secures Favorable U.S. Trade Deal, New Escalations Still Likely

U.S.-China Relations

Egypt

The new headquarters for Egypt's House of Representatives, the lower house of the country's legislature, is seen on Aug. 1, 2023, at the New Administrative Capital megaproject, which is about 45 kilometers east of the current capital, Cairo. 

With the opposition sufficiently sidelined, pro-government parties will retain a strong majority in the House of Representatives, potentially enabling President al-Sisi to pursue constitutional changes to extend his term.

Egyptian Lower-House Elections To Reaffirm al-Sisi's Dominance

Spain

Carles Puigdemont, leader of Catalonia's pro-independence Junts party, delivers a speech in southwestern France on July 27, 2024, during a meeting held to celebrate the fourth anniversary of the party's founding. 

The end of a political pact between the ruling Socialists and Catalonia's Junts party will make it even harder for Prime Minister Sanchez to govern and pass laws, which could open the door to an early election.

Spain's Political Problems Worsen as Government Loses Catalan Support

Turkey

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Madagascar

Protesters face police from a distance near burning barricades in Antananarivo, Madagascar, on Oct. 9, 2025. 

President Andry Rajoelina's removal on the back of widespread, youth-led protests will likely deescalate tensions in Madagascar in the next few weeks, but it could inspire similar protest movements elsewhere in Africa and potentially beyond.

Africa Sees Its First Gen Z-Driven Coup in Madagascar

Columns

On Security

Nigeria

South Africa

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Tunisia

Indonesia

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

On Geopolitics

Germany

Slovakia

Hungary

European Council President Antonio Costa and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a meeting of the European Council on Oct. 23. The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

The EU pursuit of geopolitical independence is being severely tested by Russia's direct security aggression, China's control over critical raw materials and competing economic pressures from the United States.

Europe's Dual Challenge From China and Russia

President Donald Trump delivers remarks in the Oval Office of the White House on Oct. 6, 2025.

The White House's expanding campaign of retribution against perceived political opponents threatens to weaken the rule of law and create lasting instability for domestic governance, foreign alliances and the investment climate.

The Risks of the Trump Administration's Campaign of Retribution

An antique map showing the area around modern-day Israel and the Palestinian territories. 

Current conflict dynamics suggest an uneasy ''one-and-a-half-state'' solution may emerge, where Palestinians are granted limited autonomy in reservation-style territories under Israeli control, potentially mitigating violence but leaving Israel more internationally isolated.

A Palestinian 'Half-State' Could Reduce Violence, but Deepen Israel's Isolation

Sri Lanka

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

Qatar

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

The crime scene where political activist Charlie Kirk was shot and killed Sept. 11 at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Political violence in the United States and other Western countries is becoming harder to define. 

Political Instability & Social Unrest

While ideologically amorphous violence is deeply troubling, it fits into the overall wave of political violence in which the United States finds itself -- and the overall trajectory of more violence likely for the foreseeable future.

The Charlie Kirk Assassination Highlights the Rise of Political Violence Without a Clear Ideology 

Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexican airlines had agreed to transfer some flight slots at Mexico City International Airport to U.S. carriers, El Pais reported on Nov. 17.

Mexico, U.S.: Concession on Air Traffic Dispute Underscores Mexico's Willingness To Appease Washington

Cyber

Science & Technology

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C., pledged to invest $1 trillion in the United States and reportedly finalized a defense deal, while the United States plans to approve the sales of advanced artificial intelligence chips, The Guardian reported on Nov. 18.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Saudi Crown Prince Meets With President Trump

Beginning in the early hours of Nov. 18, global online users began reporting outages linked to popular web-based services like chatbot tools ChatGPT and Claude, e-commerce giants Amazon and Shopify, and social media platform X, in addition to numerous media outlets, entertainment websites and gaming platforms, The New York Times reported the same day. 

Cyberspace: Cloudflare Outage Temporarily Disrupts Access to Popular Web-Based Services

The Nigerian government has yet to present the country's 2026 budget and its Medium Term Expenditure and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026-28, less than six weeks before the start of the new fiscal year, The Punch reported on Nov. 18.

Nigeria: 2026 Budget Yet To Be Submitted Amid Doubts Regarding Implementation of 2025 Budget

Chief of the South African navy Vice Adm. Monde Lobese slammed the South African government's curbs on defense spending, questioning whether the decision had been "directly or indirectly" influenced by drug cartels and other criminal groups benefiting from weaker maritime security, Independent Online reported on Nov. 17.

South Africa: Navy Chief Slams Government Over Defense Budget Cuts, Questions Potential Criminal Capture

The South Korean navy informed Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force that it would not participate in a joint search and rescue drill slated for late November, which would have been their first instantiation of that joint drill since it was halted in 2018, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Nov. 17. 

South Korea, Japan: Cancelled Joint Drills Show Tensions Slowly Rising

Japan and Indonesia's defense and foreign ministers held a two-plus-two meeting and established a new high-level framework to accelerate defense cooperation and equipment transfer discussions, Nikkei Asia reported on Nov. 18. 

Japan, Indonesia: Tokyo, Jakarta Deepen Security Ties

Georgia

Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party announced it will introduce legislation to strip citizens abroad of their right to vote, abolish the Anti-Corruption Bureau and dissolve the provisional administration for the breakaway region of South Ossetia, Reuters reported on Nov. 17.

Georgia: Ruling Party Proposes Laws To Disenfranchise Voters, Solidify Power

Iraq

Syria

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sept. 7 in Brasilia, Brazil. Lula's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics are leaving him struggling to resonate with voters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's failure to acknowledge changes in Brazilian society and power dynamics is making it difficult for him to resonate with voters.

Lula's Old Playbook Meets a New Political Reality

Indonesian lawmakers passed a major revision of the Criminal Procedure Code, significantly expanding law enforcement powers and consolidating investigative authority under the national police, Bloomberg reported Nov. 18.

Indonesia: Major Overhaul of Criminal Procedure Code Passed

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Rare earth yttrium oxide prices have reached $126 per kilogram, which is roughly a 1,400% increase since the beginning of 2025, when prices were about $8 per kilogram, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 17, citing Asian Metal data.

The High Stakes of Canada's Attempt To Pivot Away From the U.S.

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Mexico, U.S.: Concession on Air Traffic Dispute Underscores Mexico's Willingness To Appease Washington

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Saudi Crown Prince Meets With President Trump

Cyberspace: Cloudflare Outage Temporarily Disrupts Access to Popular Web-Based Services

Nigeria: 2026 Budget Yet To Be Submitted Amid Doubts Regarding Implementation of 2025 Budget

South Africa: Navy Chief Slams Government Over Defense Budget Cuts, Questions Potential Criminal Capture

South Korea, Japan: Cancelled Joint Drills Show Tensions Slowly Rising

Japan, Indonesia: Tokyo, Jakarta Deepen Security Ties

Georgia: Ruling Party Proposes Laws To Disenfranchise Voters, Solidify Power

Indonesia: Major Overhaul of Criminal Procedure Code Passed

Global: Yttrium Oxide Prices Increase by 1,400% in 2025

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