Assessments

United States

Japan

France

Ukraine

Russia

India

A banner reading "public services in danger, let's vote" on July 5 in Paris.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: French Legislative Runoffs, a NATO Summit in Washington

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Europe

The Geopolitics of Water

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe's agricultural and industrial sectors, as well as energy production, will suffer under worsening water stress in the coming years.

What To Expect From Water Stress in Europe

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 4, 2024

Snapshots

Turkey

Sunflower and wheat fields in Canakkale, Turkey, on June 25, 2024.

Extreme weather is threatening Turkey's agricultural sector, as rising costs have increased farmers' debt burdens in the absence of sufficient government aid.

In Turkey, Farmers' Debt Burdens Rise Alongside Extreme Weather Events

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's Parliament building in London.

A likely Labour government would shift the United Kingdom's economic and energy priorities, but foreign policy would remain largely consistent.

After 14 Years, What Would a U.K. Labour Government Look Like?

Global Elections

China

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

Graffiti reading 'June 30 Popular Front' after the results of the first round of parliamentary elections were announced June 30 in Paris. The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

French Elections See a Win for the Far Right, and for Policy Uncertainty

Iran

U.K. Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak holds a campaign event on June 24, 2024, in London.

The Weekly Rundown: SCO Leaders Meet, France and the U.K. Hold Elections

Israel

Lebanon

An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon would likely see Iran's regional proxies provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, while a broader Israeli campaign would raise the risk of a regional war. 

Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mongolia

Mongolia is seen on a stock photo of a map.

The ruling party's expected victory in the June 28 parliamentary ballot portends limited progress on efforts to combat corruption and reduce Mongolia's trade reliance on Russia and China.

In Mongolia, Elections Highlight Glacial Pace of Economic and Foreign Policy Shifts

Kenya

Protesters participate in a nationwide rally against a controversial tax bill in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, on June 27, 2024. 

The Kenyan government axed its $2.3 billion tax plan amid mass deadly protests, but budget cuts to offset the revenue shortfall could reignite protests and potentially derail Nairobi's fiscal consolidation plans.

In Kenya, Scrapped Tax Hikes Put the Government in a Bind

Latest

Tajikistan

An image of the Tajik flag.

Anger over the president's rumored plan to pass the torch to his son risks further radicalizing some Tajiks, elevating terrorism threats to neighboring Central Asian states and the broader region.

In Tajikistan, a Looming Succession Risks Fueling Instability and Radicalization

A billboard displaying the faces of the six candidates in Iran's 2024 presidential election with July 5 runoff winner Masoud Pezeshkian at second from right. Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints.

Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian will attempt to improve relations with the West, including the United States, but he is unlikely to impact Iran's regional strategy significantly and is likely to face considerable domestic constraints. 

A Reformist Presidential Win Is Unlikely to Shift Iran's Regional Policy

A French flag is waved during a rally following the projected results of the second round of France's legislative election, at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024.

Even if a new government is formed, it will be fragile and constantly at risk of collapse, impeding Paris' ability to pass needed economic reforms while sustaining the prospect of new elections after mid-2025.

France Keeps the Far Right at Bay, but a Hung Parliament Still Raises Political Risks

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Dec. 6, 2021.

Modi's upcoming talks with Putin highlight strong India-Russia ties and may lead to a final agreement on expanded defense cooperation and military exchanges.

Modi's Visit to Moscow Spotlights Strong India-Russia Ties

Ethiopia

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

United Arab Emirates

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro sits in front of a Colombian flag during a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 6, 2023. 

The president's struggle to find consensus with lawmakers will likely see him resort to controversial decrees or referendums to try to enact his proposed policy reforms. 

In Colombia, Ongoing Legislative Gridlock Bodes Ill for Petro's Reform Agenda

Sudan

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

Columns

On Geopolitics

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the budget for 2024-25 on July 23 to the lower house of Parliament, the Lok Sabha, The Economic Times reported on July 8.

India: Government To Present Budget on July 23

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Uganda

A U.N. report found that Uganda had facilitated the transit of M23 rebels and Rwandan forces into the Democratic Republic of the Congo through its territory, Radio France Internationale reported on July 8.

Congo, Uganda: U.N. Report Accuses Uganda of Facilitating Congolese Rebel Groups' Operations  

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a trilateral treaty establishing the Confederation of Sahelian States, or CSS, on July 6, Radio France Internationale reported on July 8.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS 

Moldova

Igor Dodon, the leader of Moldova's main opposition pro-Russia Socialist Party, or PSRM, announced that he will not run for president, and his party nominated former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo as its candidate, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

Moldova: Leading Opposition Party Selects Presidential Candidate

South Korea's health ministry announced that the government was withdrawing all administrative moves -- including license suspensions -- against the more than 12,000 trainee doctors who have been on strike since February, Yonhap News Agency reported July 8.

South Korea: Doctors' Strike Concession Risks Future Strikes, Industry Disruptions

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a list of four demands as prerequisites for further hostage negotiations with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, The Times of Israel reported on July 7.

Israel, Gaza: Netanyahu Adds 'Impossible' Demands for Cease-Fire Talks

The incumbent candidate, Yuriko Koike, an independent backed by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), won the Tokyo gubernatorial election on July 7, Asahi Shimbun reported July 8. 

Japan: Mixed Tokyo Election Results Show Risk of Snap Election Miscalculation

Yemen

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen's Houthi rebels, criticized Saudi Arabia over several issues, including an order in April by the Central Bank of Yemen for banks to move their operations from the Houthi-controlled city of Sanaa to the Saudi-backed federal government's stronghold of Aden, Al-Alam News Network reported on July 7.

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Houthi Leader Threatens To Attack Saudi Arabia

Science & Technology

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

In a July 5 live address, Kenyan President William Ruto announced that the National Treasury would reduce public spending by approximately $1.4 billion and would borrow the remaining amount to cover a deficit equivalent to 4.6% of the country's GDP for the fiscal year ending in June 2025.

Kenya: President Announces Austerity Measures Following Deadly Nationwide Protests

Six soldiers died on July 4 after falling into a minefield in Colombia's Antioquia department while clashing with members of the Central General Staff (EMC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) armed rebel groups, DW reported.

Colombia: Six Soldiers Die in Minefield Following Clashes With Rebel Groups

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

In Tajikistan, a Looming Succession Risks Fueling Instability and Radicalization

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Government To Present Budget on July 23

Congo, Uganda: U.N. Report Accuses Uganda of Facilitating Congolese Rebel Groups' Operations

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Sign Confederation Treaty, Confirm Departure From ECOWAS

Moldova: Leading Opposition Party Selects Presidential Candidate

South Korea: Doctors' Strike Concession Risks Future Strikes, Industry Disruptions

Israel, Gaza: Netanyahu Adds 'Impossible' Demands for Cease-Fire Talks

Japan: Mixed Tokyo Election Results Show Risk of Snap Election Miscalculation

Yemen, Saudi Arabia: Houthi Leader Threatens To Attack Saudi Arabia

Kenya: President Announces Austerity Measures Following Deadly Nationwide Protests

Colombia: Six Soldiers Die in Minefield Following Clashes With Rebel Groups

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