Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 10, 2024

Media

Somalia

Podcasts

Military & Security

What does Somalia's security landscape look like for the next five to 10 years?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Somalia

Indonesia

Indonesian Defense Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto (center) is seen next to outgoing President Joko Widodo (right) in the parliament building in Jakarta on Aug. 16, 2024. 

Economics

Politics

The defense minister-turned-president will maintain his predecessor's efforts to bolster Indonesia's economy while adopting a more hawkish stance abroad, particularly on the country's territorial dispute with China.

In Indonesia, Previewing the Prabowo Presidency

Mozambique

Brazil

Iran

Israel

Tunisia

Germany

Ukraine

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Georgia

The founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, stands behind the bulletproof glass as he gives a campaign speech in Gori, Georgia, on Sept. 14, 2024.

In the likely case that the ruling GD party clings to power, Georgia will continue to feign interest in Western integration as it deepens ties with China and Russia. But an opposition victory that yields a new, pro-European government cannot be ruled out.

What's at Stake in Georgia's Oct. 26 Election

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Why is semiconductor production limited to a handful of regions?

Applied Geopolitics: U.S.-China Strategic Competition: The Role of Technology

Rwanda

China

Europe

Russia

Frelimo electoral posters are plastered on a wall in Maputo, Mozambique, on Aug. 24, 2024, the first day of the presidential campaign season ahead of the general election on Oct. 9, 2024.

Energy

Mozambique's upcoming general election will likely bring another five years of Frelimo rule, though an independent candidate is drawing LNG contracts to the forefront of the campaign season.

Mozambique's General Election Brings LNG Contracts Centerstage

Global Elections

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 3, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

U.S.-Iran Relations

Maldives

India

An aerial view of the island of Male, which is the capital of the Maldives.

If it defaults on its Islamic bonds, the island nation will be forced to seek more financial aid from India and China, which would heighten macroeconomic instability and erode investor confidence.

Trouble in Paradise: The Maldives' Looming Debt Default

Latest

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Social Issues

Aging workforces are slowing growth and raising public debt in advanced economies, while rapid labor force growth and high youth unemployment are creating significant economic challenges for developing countries.

The Economic Implications of Shifting Global Demographics

Snapshots

Moldova

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

Canada

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

Australia

China will lift trade restrictions on Australian lobster by the end of 2024, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said while meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Laos, Reuters reported on Oct. 10. 

China, Australia: Beijing Promises To Lift Final Trade Restrictions on Canberra by Year's End

Cyber

Science & Technology

Pro-Palestinian hacktivist group BlackMeta claimed responsibility for a large-scale distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attack on the Internet Archive's "Wayback Machine" that lasted five hours, and the group implied plans to carry out another attack on Oct. 10, according to Oct. 9 posts on its X account.

U.S.: Pro-Palestinian Hackers Claim DDoS Attack on Internet Archive Amid Data Breach, Website Defacement

A government spokesperson announced that the Ethiopian government had increased the price of diesel and gasoline by around 8% and 10%, respectively, due to the birr's devaluation but that the government would continue to cover 75%-80% of the price difference caused by the birr's depreciation through subsidies, Addis Standard reported on Oct. 9. 

Ethiopia: Government Hikes Fuel Prices as Ethio Telecom Prepares To Sell Stake 

Russian cyber threat groups are increasingly engaging in cyberespionage campaigns rather than disruptive cyberattacks in Ukraine in an effort to enable Russian battlefield gains, U.S. National Security Agency official Dave Luber claimed during a conference on Oct. 9.

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

Taiwanese President William Lai gave a speech on the country's National Day in which he asserted Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, claiming "[Beijing] has no right to represent Taiwan," The Washington Post reported on Oct. 10.

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

Mexico

Mexico's Chamber of Deputies approved in a 353-122 vote a constitutional reform that increases the executive branch's control over state-owned energy companies, El Economista reported on Oct. 10. 

Mexico: Interventionist Energy Reform Advances in Congress

The United Kingdom's Labour government introduced in Parliament its Employment Rights Bill, framed as the largest labor reform proposal in a generation, Reuters reported on Oct. 10.

U.K.: New Government Lays Out Massive Shakeup to Employment Laws

France

Later on Oct. 10, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier will present his 2025 budget proposal, which will contain significant tax hikes and spending cuts to reduce the deficit to 5% of gross domestic product in 2025 and aim to comply with the European Union’s 3% of GDP fiscal deficit rules by 2029 (a delay from 2027, as previously planned), Politico reported on Oct. 10. 

France: Government To Present Budget That Increases Taxes, Cuts Spending

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Colombia

Colombia's National Electoral Council, or CNE, requested an investigation over alleged campaign finance violations by President Gustavo Petro in 2022, El Pais reported on Oct. 8.

Colombia: Investigation Into President's Campaign Finances To Fuel Political Instability

The newly inaugurated administration of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will seek to strengthen the domestic manufacturing sector by asking U.S. vehicle and semiconductor producers and companies in the electronics and aerospace sectors to replace components made in China and Southeast Asia with parts from Mexico, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 8.

Mexico: Government Hints at Import Substitution To Boost Investment Amid Supply Chain Derisking Efforts

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Australia: Beijing Promises To Lift Final Trade Restrictions on Canberra by Year's End

U.S.: Pro-Palestinian Hackers Claim DDoS Attack on Internet Archive Amid Data Breach, Website Defacement

Ethiopia: Government Hikes Fuel Prices as Ethio Telecom Prepares To Sell Stake

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

Taiwan, China: Lai's National Day Speech Appeals for Western Support, Irks China

Mexico: Interventionist Energy Reform Advances in Congress

U.K.: New Government Lays Out Massive Shakeup to Employment Laws

France: Government To Present Budget That Increases Taxes, Cuts Spending

Colombia: Investigation Into President's Campaign Finances To Fuel Political Instability

Mexico: Government Hints at Import Substitution To Boost Investment Amid Supply Chain Derisking Efforts

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