Assessments

Ethiopia

United States

Europe

Germany

Ukraine

Russia

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Argentina

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

Economics

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 13, 2025

Iran

A billboard showing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is seen in Baghdad, Iraq, on Oct. 7, 2024.

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

New U.S.-Iran talks are unlikely to make headway, if they begin at all, due to distrust and a mutual unwillingness to compromise, which could see the U.S. or Israel resort to military strikes on Iran's nuclear program.

Despite Trump's Push for Talks, a New U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Advisor Mosaad bin Mohammad al-Aiban, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Andriy Yermak and Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerovto attend a meeting between the US and Ukraine hosted by the Saudis on March 11, 2025 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, but its success depends on Moscow's acceptance and broader unresolved issues.

Temporary Truce in Sight? U.S. and Ukraine Push for 30-Day Ceasefire with Russia

Venezuela

The Peace Monument sculpture is seen in front of the PDVSA headquarters in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 2, 2022. 

The return of stricter U.S. sanctions will harm Venezuela's oil and gas industry, undermine its economy and fuel migration, but is unlikely to weaken President Maduro's hold on power in the short to medium term.

What Trump's Policy Shifts Mean for Venezuela

Americas

Canada

Mexico

China

Global Trade

Trump's trade and tariff policies will create new challenges for manufacturers seeking to move their operations closer to the U.S., but broader global dynamics will likely prevent a reversal in nearshoring trends. 

The Geopolitics of Trade: Rising Threats to Nearshoring in the Americas

Romania

Supporters of the far-right Romanian politician Calin Georgescu take part in an anti-government protest in Bucharest on March 1, 2025. 

Georgescu's disqualification will worsen Romania's increasingly polarized political climate, heightening the risk of violent protests and strengthening alternative far-right candidates in the May election rerun.

Romania's Political Crisis Worsens After Far-Right Candidate Barred From Presidential Rerun

Saudi Arabia

South Korea

India

Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Podcasts

How might U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policy affect emerging and developing markets?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Emerging Markets

Algeria

Morocco

France

France's President Emmanuel Macron (L) meets with Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune (R) at the Borgo Egnazia resort on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Savelletri, Italy, on June 13, 2024. 

A migration dispute between France and Algeria will likely lead to sanctions, trade restrictions and frozen energy deals amid broader disagreements over Western Sahara.


Divisions Between France and Algeria Deepen Over Migration Dispute

Latest

Philippines

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Phillippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

A photo taken on Jan. 15, 2025, shows a muddy track running through a forest in Sumy, Ukraine, that Ukrainian soldiers use to transport American Stryker armored fighting vehicles during Ukraine's ongoing cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region.

Intensified Russian attacks will likely soon force Ukrainian troops to exit Russia's Kursk border region, which could make Moscow more open to ceasefire talks by weakening Kyiv's negotiating leverage.

Ukraine's Withdrawal From Kursk Appears Imminent Amid Russian Advances

While a ceasefire appears increasingly likely, Russia will likely delay a deal to secure more concessions related to Western military support, a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and Kyiv's NATO aspirations.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Milorad Dodik, leader of the most influential political party in the Bosnian-Serb dominated entity of Republika Srpska, on Oct. 27, 2022.

The arrest will test Bosnia's fragile institutional order amid rising regional and global instability, fueling concerns of a potential spillover of unrest across the Western Balkans.

The Arrest of a Serbian Official Puts Bosnian -- and Regional -- Stability to the Test

A German flag flies above the Reichstag, the building that houses the Bundestag, on July 23, 2022, in Berlin. 

If approved, the constitutional reforms and unprecedented fiscal stimulus would unlock massive military spending and revitalize the German economy. 

German Parties Propose a Historic Overhaul of Spending, Defense Policies

U.S. policy shifts under Trump and China's ongoing economic malaise will leave highly indebted, low-income countries at greater risk of financial and political distress over the next year.

U.S. and Chinese Economic Uncertainty Worsen the Global Macro Environment

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and other senior leaders applaud at the closing session of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, or CPPCC, on March 10, 2024, in Beijing, China. 

The annual legislative conference will reveal more details on how China plans to support its sluggish economy and protect it from Western restrictions, though major stimulus measures remain unlikely.

China's 'Two Sessions' Meeting Will Shed Light on Economic Support, Trade Resilience Plans

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Taiwan

Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

The U.S. Treasury on March 13 did not extend a 60-day waiver that temporarily exempted Russia's largest banks from sanctions so they could process energy payments, such as purchases of Russian oil and gas, Reuters reported on March 14. 

U.S., Russia: Russian Bank Exemptions From Energy Sanctions Expire

Taiwanese President William Lai accused China of escalating its infiltration and influence operations against the self-governing island and labeled China a "hostile foreign force" under the criteria established in Taiwan's 2020 Anti-Infiltration Act, Reuters reported on March 13.

Taiwan, China: Taiwanese President Calls China a 'Hostile Foreign Force'

Vietnamese companies signed six preliminary deals worth $4.15 billion with U.S. companies in energy and minerals, including liquefied natural gas, crude oil and equipment procurement, during Vietnam's trade minister's visit to Washington, Reuters reported on March 14.

Vietnam, U.S.: Energy, Minerals Deals a Step Forward in Calming Trade Worries

Panama

The Trump administration reportedly asked U.S. military officials for "credible military options" to secure U.S. access to the Panama Canal in an internal government memo titled "Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance," CNN reported on March 13.

U.S., Panama: Pentagon To Provide Options To Secure U.S. Access to Panama Canal

South Africa

Science & Technology

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union would provide a 4.7 billion euro ($5.1 billion) funding package for South Africa's healthcare sector, Just Energy Transition Partnership projects, and connectivity and transport corridors, Daily Maverick reported on March 13. 

South Africa: EU Announces $5B Package, Start of Negotiations for Trade Partnership  

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Southern African Development Community, or SADC, agreed at a virtual summit on March 13 to end the mandate of the SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, or SAMIDRC, according to a communique published on X.

Congo: SADC Calls for 'Phased Withdrawal' of Troops in Eastern Congo

U.S. special envoy Richard Grenell said the United States and Venezuela agreed to resume deportation flights starting on March 14, El Pais reported on March 13.

U.S., Venezuela: Bilateral Relations To Remain Volatile Despite Deportation Flights Resumption

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Hamas said it would release a single living Israeli-American hostage and four Israeli-American bodies to signal continued interest in the strained Gaza ceasefire after direct talks with the United States, Reuters reported on March 14.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas To Release American-Israeli To Boost Ceasefire Pressure on Israel

The United States rejected Australia's proposal to secure tariff exemptions on steel and aluminum imports in exchange for guaranteed critical minerals access, the Australian Financial Review reported on March 13. 

Australia: Trump Rejects Steel and Aluminum Tariff Exemption Proposal as Japan Makes Port Call 

Eritrea

Individuals affiliated with the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, have allegedly seized control of the mayoral office and a leading local radio station in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, Addis Standard reported on March 13.

Ethiopia: TPLF Reportedly Seizes Key Buildings in Tigray's Regional Capital, Threatening Military Escalation 

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia: Russian Bank Exemptions From Energy Sanctions Expire

Taiwan, China: Taiwanese President Calls China a 'Hostile Foreign Force'

Vietnam, U.S.: Energy, Minerals Deals a Step Forward in Calming Trade Worries

U.S., Panama: Pentagon To Provide Options To Secure U.S. Access to Panama Canal

South Africa: EU Announces $5B Package, Start of Negotiations for Trade Partnership

Congo: SADC Calls for 'Phased Withdrawal' of Troops in Eastern Congo

U.S., Venezuela: Bilateral Relations To Remain Volatile Despite Deportation Flights Resumption

Israel, Gaza: Hamas To Release American-Israeli To Boost Ceasefire Pressure on Israel

Australia: Trump Rejects Steel and Aluminum Tariff Exemption Proposal as Japan Makes Port Call

Ethiopia: TPLF Reportedly Seizes Key Buildings in Tigray's Regional Capital, Threatening Military Escalation

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