Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 28, 2023

Colombia

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Peru

Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active. 

Military & Security

Politics

The success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in reducing the country's homicide rate will be hard to replicate, despite the efforts of nearby countries.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1

Snapshots

Spain

The prime minister's re-appointment would portend policy continuity and cordial ties between Madrid and Catalonia, but it'd also deepen the country's political polarization.

What Another Term Under Sanchez Would Mean for Spain

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan

Cote d'Ivoire

Eritrea

Rwanda

Senegal

Sudan

Togo

Uganda

People flee their neighborhoods in Khartoum, Sudan, amid fighting between the army and paramilitary troops on April 19, 2023. 

Economics

Government institutions in eastern and western Africa remain relatively strong, but potential succession crises, simmering unrest and weak leaders still pose latent risks.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 2: West and East Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Mali

Niger

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a speech during a press conference on the country's climate policies at the Downing Street Briefing Room in London on Sept. 20, 2023. 

Environment, Science & Technology

By weakening its climate commitments, London is making a risky political gamble that could also harm the U.K.'s business and investment climate.

The U.K. Government Walks Back on Key Climate Pledges

Japan

Marshall Islands

Solomon Islands

South Korea

Europe

Maldives

EU Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis speaks March 16, 2023, in Brussels.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S.-Pacific Islands Forum Summit, China-Japan-South Korea Talks

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks at the opening ceremony of the International Forum for Trilateral Cooperation that commemorated the 20th anniversary of trilateral cooperation among China, South Korea and Japan, in Beijing, China, on May 10, 2019. 

A trilateral summit may increase economic cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, but their security interests continue to diverge.

China, Japan and South Korea Will Resume Trilateral Talks, but Diplomatic Hurdles Remain

U.S.-China Relations

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Russia

Kyrgyzstan

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Turkey

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Latest

Salvadoran security forces move a second group of 2,000 detainees overnight to the mega-prison Terrorist Confinement Center on March 15, 2023, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. 

Social Issues

El Salvador's successful state of emergency could convince other regional countries to attempt the same strategy, leading to safety, reputational and migratory risks.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 2

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Canada

World Sikh Organization of Canada President Mukhbir Singh and National Council of Canadian Muslims CEO Stephen Brown speak during a press conference at the Canadian House of Commons in Ottawa on Sept. 19, 2023.

Recent allegations will raise tensions between Canada and India, leading to near-term security risks and possible tit-for-tat retaliation.

Canada-India Ties Take a Dive Following Ottawa's Allegations

Indonesia

Malaysia

Rare earth elements. Malaysia's recently announced plan to ban exports of rare earth elements is the latest example of the deepening regional trend of resource nationalism.

Malaysia's move will negatively impact its international partners in the sector, but give Malaysia a strategic advantage in the marketplace.

With a Rare Earth Ban, Malaysia Is Poised to Join the Regional Resource Nationalism Trend

Asia-Pacific

A 3D rendering of the European Union's flag and a gas valve on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.

Energy

Despite high storage and lower demand, European natural gas prices will remain vulnerable to market shocks as the winter heating season begins.

Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (center) attends an executive meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 13, 2023, ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.

Japan's Cabinet reshuffle may facilitate new stimulus and improve the ruling party's popularity, but hard economic challenges loom.

In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election

Israel

Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Samoa

Federated States of Micronesia

Fiji

Kiribati

Nauru

Papua New Guinea

Tuvalu

The United States is backing the construction of the Central Pacific Cable, a planned undersea internet cable covering thousands of miles that will link U.S. territories American Samoa and Guam before extending to 10 Pacific Island countries and territories, Reuters reported on Sept. 27.

U.S., Pacific Islands: Washington Backs New Undersea Cable Network in Pacific

The United Kingdom's Labour Party is committed to retaining the country's Trident nuclear deterrent and will look to strike a "security pact" with the European Union should it win the next general election, Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Shadow Defense Secretary John Healy said in an op-ed in The Telegraph on Sept. 28.

U.K.: Labour Party Confirms Commitment to Nuclear Deterrent, Future EU-U.K. Security Pact

Taiwan's military unveiled its first domestically built attack submarine, the "Hai Kun" (Narwhal), which will commence harbor testing on Oct. 1 and thereafter sea testing, Focus Taiwan reported on Sept. 28.

Taiwan: Domestic Submarine Progress Might be Too Little Too Late

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh said they were dissolving the breakaway statelet they had defended for three decades and that it would "cease to exist" by Jan. 1, Reuters reported on Sept. 28.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Local Armenian Government in Nagorno-Karabakh Dissolves

Ahmed al-Khateeb, the chair of Saudi Arabia's tourism commission, welcomed Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz to Saudi Arabia, the first public acknowledgment of an Israeli politician's visit to Saudi Arabia, The Times of Israel reported on Sept. 27.

Saudi Arabia, Israel: Israeli Ministers Begin Visits to Saudi Arabia

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 21, 2023

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

Sri Lanka

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) failed to reach a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka following the fund's first review for the country's $2.9 billion bailout, Reuters reported on Sept. 27. 

Sri Lanka: IMF Fails to Reach Staff-Level Agreement, Delaying Second Bailout Tranche

Mexico

The bodies of up to a dozen people were found throughout Monterrey city in Mexico's northern state of Nuevo Leon on Sept. 26 in a series of murders linked to apparent infighting within the Northeast cartel, BBC reported on Sept. 27.

Mexico: Dismembered Bodies Placed Throughout Monterrey

A spokesperson of the Ukrainian army's eastern forces confirmed reports that mercenaries affiliated with Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group have returned to Ukraine, near Bakhmut, Meduza reported on Sept. 27.

Ukraine, Russia: Multiple Sources Claim Wagner Returns to Bakhmut

The United States halted non-humanitarian aid to Gabon following the Aug. 30 military coup that ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba, AP reported on Sept. 27.

Gabon: U.S. Halts Aid to Gabon After Coup

Chinese police placed billionaire chairman Hui Ka Yan of major real estate developer Evergrande under house watch, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 27. 

China: Evergrande Chairman on Police Watch Amid Restructuring Setbacks

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

2023 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Pacific Islands: Washington Backs New Undersea Cable Network in Pacific

U.K.: Labour Party Confirms Commitment to Nuclear Deterrent, Future EU-U.K. Security Pact

Taiwan: Domestic Submarine Progress Might be Too Little Too Late

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Local Armenian Government in Nagorno-Karabakh Dissolves

Saudi Arabia, Israel: Israeli Ministers Begin Visits to Saudi Arabia

Sri Lanka: IMF Fails to Reach Staff-Level Agreement, Delaying Second Bailout Tranche

Mexico: Dismembered Bodies Placed Throughout Monterrey

Ukraine, Russia: Multiple Sources Claim Wagner Returns to Bakhmut

Gabon: U.S. Halts Aid to Gabon After Coup

China: Evergrande Chairman on Police Watch Amid Restructuring Setbacks

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