Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 2, 2023

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the U.N. General Assembly (UNGA) at United Nations headquarters on Sept. 21, 2023, in New York City.

Military & Security

Politics

The Palestinian Authority's 87-year-old president has yet to name a successor, raising the risk of major political upheaval and social unrest in the event of his death.

What a PA Succession Crisis Would Mean for the West Bank

Snapshots

Germany

Denmark

Greece

France

Sweden

Belgium

Spain

Italy

Hungary

Ukraine

Russia

Israeli and EU Flags

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A lack of a unified EU response to the Israel-Hamas War highlights divisions among member states' foreign policies, complicating the bloc's plans to play a meaningful role in the conflict, as well as efforts to maintain unified support for Ukraine.

Israel-Hamas War Highlights Divisions Among EU Member States

Iran

Lebanon

Israeli forces prepare to fire artillery toward the Gaza Strip on Oct. 30, 2023, in Netivot, Israel. 

While it so far doesn't amount to a full-scale invasion, Israel's expanding ground incursion into Gaza still raises the risk of Iranian retaliation, as well as more violence in the West Bank and Israel.

The 'Second Phase' of Israel's War in Gaza Has Begun. What Now?

Indonesia

Supporters of presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto and vice presidential candidate Gibran Rakabuming Raka attend an event in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 25, 2023. 

Victory for a ticket that includes the current president's son would portend policy continuity, though Jokowi may find himself with less influence over the new administration than he had hoped for.

What To Watch for as Indonesia's 2024 Presidential Campaign Kicks Off

The virus that causes COVID.

Environment, Science & Technology

 COVID-19 cases are set to rise as the weather cools, fueled by new variants, low booster rates and political polarization

In the U.S., New COVID-19 Variants Spread as Winter Approaches

South Africa

Pakistan

Israeli tanks on the border with Lebanon on Oct. 26, 2023, in Israel amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Economics

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Middle Eastern Escalation, an IMF Team Visits Pakistan

Media

Podcasts

What's behind the recent increase in reported COVID cases?

Beyond COVID: Everything You Need to Know About New COVID Subvariant EG.5

Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, answers questions about the Israel-Hamas war during a press conference on Oct. 19, 2023, in Arlington, Virginia. 

The U.S.'s recent airstrikes in Syria suggest it's positioning itself defensively in the region. But a major attack on Israel or U.S. forces could still pull Washington into a large-scale conflict.

Wary of Another War, the U.S. Tries to Stay on the Defensive in the Middle East

U.S.-Iran Relations

Algeria

Morocco

Displaced Sahrawis arrive at the refugee camp of Dakhla, which lies some 170 kilometers southeast of the Algerian city of Tindouf, on Jan. 13, 2023.

Rabat will leverage growing support of its sovereignty claims to attract investment to the disputed region, as Algiers tries to prevent the territorial dispute from further harming its foreign relationships.

Morocco and Algeria's Evolving Strategies in Western Sahara

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Guatemala

Guatemalan President-elect Bernardo Arevalo and Guatemalan outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei chat at the end of the second government transition meeting on Sept. 11, 2023. 

Threats of U.S. sanctions against Guatemala are unlikely to persuade the country's political elite from challenging the results of the presidential election, creating risks of unrest, as well as compliance challenges and possible political instability.

 U.S. Threats of Increased Sanctions Unlikely to Sway Guatemala's Political Elite

Latest

Jordan

Members of Jordan's gendarmerie stand on guard as protesters gather for a rally in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in Amman, Jordan, on Oct. 27, 2023. 

Jordan's criticism of the war in Gaza will dampen ties with Israel, but not at the expense of their peace treaty.

Amid the Israel-Hamas War, Jordan Balances a Fine Line Between Criticism and Peace With Israel 

South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana on Nov. 1, 2023, delivers his midterm budget policy statement in Cape Town.

Adjustments to South Africa's budget will likely stave off public anger in the short term, but only postpone fixing macroeconomic and socioeconomic problems.

To Cope With Low Economic Growth, South Africa Announces Limited Budget Cuts 

China

A large screen in Beijing, China, displays a CCTV news broadcast of U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping's virtual summit on Nov. 16, 2021.

The two presidents' meeting next month may lead to more bilateral negotiations, but real progress on the key issues plaguing the U.S.-China relationship will remain elusive.

All Talk and Little Action: Previewing the Xi-Biden Summit

U.S.-China Relations

India

Supporters of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) participate in a rally in Kolkata on July 19, 2023. 

Social Issues

Voters in several battleground states are heading to the polls next month for what will be the last electoral contests before India's 2024 general election.

What to Watch for as Five Indian States Hold Key Elections

Philippines

A photo taken during a Philippine surveillance flight on Sept. 28, 2023, shows a Chinese coast guard ship on patrol near the Scarborough Shoal (seen in the background) in the South China Sea.

The vessel crashes highlight the risk of future crises in the disputed maritime region as China tries to test the U.S.'s commitment to defending the Philippines and the wider Indo-Pacific.

Chinese-Philippine Collisions Bring Attention Back to the South China Sea

Bulgaria

Romania

Austria

Netherlands

An EU sign is seen at a Romanian border crossing.

Bulgaria and Romania have set out to join the EU's passport-free zone by the year's end, but Austrian and Dutch skepticism will likely keep delaying their membership and the associated economic benefits.

The Challenges Facing Bulgaria and Romania's Schengen Bids

Columns

On Geopolitics

Japan

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

Europe

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

Argentina

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Sub-Saharan Africa

Turkey

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

Honduras

A committee of ruling party lawmakers in Colombia unanimously appointed Johel Zelaya as interim attorney general on Nov. 1 at a time when the country's legislature is in recess, sparking an outcry from the political opposition, Reuters reported the same day.

Honduras: Permanent Commission Elects Interim Prosecutor, Angering the Opposition

Graphics

An Israeli army convoy Nov. 1, 2023, on a road near Sderot in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip.

Urban warfare is always challenging for any advancing army, but in the Gaza Strip, uniquely challenging geography and global scrutiny make this military campaign distinct.

How Israeli Forces Are Proceeding in the Gaza Strip in Response to Geography and Global Scrutiny

Zimbabwe

The Zimbabwean government awarded Chinese companies licenses in the third quarter of 2023 that come with planned investments of $2.79 billion, mostly in the mining and energy sectors, Bloomberg reported Nov. 1. 

Zimbabwe: China to Invest $2.8 Billion in Lithium, Energy Projects 

Large EU energy companies are increasingly storing natural gas in Ukraine to hedge against supply risks ahead of peak winter demand as the bloc's inventories near full capacity, the Financial Times reported Nov. 1, citing figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe. 

Europe: EU Energy Companies Storing Gas in Ukraine as Bloc Nears Capacity

The details of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's $113-billion stimulus package were revealed Nov. 2 following his Cabinet's approval of the package, Reuters reported.

Japan: $113-Billion Stimulus Unlikely to Boost Support for Kishida and His Party  

North Korea

South Korean military intelligence says that around 2,000 containers of military equipment and munitions have been shipped from North Korea's northeastern Rajin Port to Vladivostok, Russia in the Far East, around double the U.S. estimate of 1,000 containers revealed on Oct. 13, Yonhap reported Nov. 2.

North Korea, Russia: Countries Continue to Deepen Defense, Technology Ties

U.S. and Chinese officials will hold talks on Nov. 6 about nuclear arms development, which will not include limits on nuclear arms but will seek to increase understanding about doctrine and arsenal buildups, The Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 1. 

China, U.S.: Countries to Hold Nuclear Talks Amid Fears of New Arms Race

Spain's acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Catalan President Pere Aragones of the pro-independence Republican Left (ERC) party have agreed on the terms of a draft amnesty bill for all pro-independence Catalan leaders facing prosecution following the 2017 illegal secession referendum, El Pais reported Oct. 31.

Spain: Acting Prime Minister Sanchez Reaches Amnesty Deal With Catalan Separatists

Science & Technology

Supporters of the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party rally outside the KMT's headquarters in Taipei, Taiwan, ahead of the party's expected announcement of its 2024 presidential candidate on May 17, 2023. 

The outcome of the Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections will determine the trajectory of Taiwan's trade policy, the risk of war with China, and the prospects for domestic policy gridlock.

Previewing Taiwan's 2024 Election

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

The Israel Defense Forces battled the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas in and around Gaza City on Nov. 1, The Times of Israel reported the next day. 

Israel, Gaza: Israel Pushes Deeper Into Gaza Amid International Attention

Jordan recalled its ambassador to Israel, accusing Israel of "killing innocents" and causing a "humanitarian catastrophe" following Israeli airstrikes that caused a number of civilian casualties in a Gaza refugee camp, Al Jazeera reported on Nov. 1.

Jordan, Israel: Jordan Recalls Ambassador to Israel Over Deadly Airstrikes in Gaza

More than 25 countries, including the United States and China, as well as the European Union, signed the "Bletchley Declaration" at the AI Safety Summit, AP reported on Nov. 1.

Global: Over 25 Countries Sign Bletchley Declaration on AI Safety

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

All Talk and Little Action: Previewing the Xi-Biden Summit

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Honduras: Permanent Commission Elects Interim Prosecutor, Angering the Opposition

Zimbabwe: China to Invest $2.8 Billion in Lithium, Energy Projects

Europe: EU Energy Companies Storing Gas in Ukraine as Bloc Nears Capacity

Japan: $113-Billion Stimulus Unlikely to Boost Support for Kishida and His Party

North Korea, Russia: Countries Continue to Deepen Defense, Technology Ties

China, U.S.: Countries to Hold Nuclear Talks Amid Fears of New Arms Race

Spain: Acting Prime Minister Sanchez Reaches Amnesty Deal With Catalan Separatists

Israel, Gaza: Israel Pushes Deeper Into Gaza Amid International Attention

Jordan, Israel: Jordan Recalls Ambassador to Israel Over Deadly Airstrikes in Gaza

Global: Over 25 Countries Sign Bletchley Declaration on AI Safety

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