Assessments

South Africa

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

Japan

South Korea

United Kingdom

Supporters of the African National Congress (ANC) party dance, sing and chant slogans during a campaign march on May 24, 2024, in Johannesburg, South Africa. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's General Election, Israel Resumes Hostage Talks With Hamas

Global Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Vietnam

To Lam is sworn in as Vietnam's president during the National Assembly's summer session in Hanoi on May 22, 2024. 

Military & Security

With To Lam no longer at the helm, Vietnam's sweeping anti-graft drive will likely slow. But the former security chief's promotion still primes him to assume the country's top political role in 2026, portending more scrutiny of foreign entities.

The Enforcer of Vietnam's Anti-Corruption Campaign Has Been Appointed President

Snapshots

Taiwan

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

United States

Cyber

Within America's borders, physical and cyber threats are expected to intensify in the lead-up to the election. Both foreign and domestic actors have already begun to leverage artificial intelligence tools to spread disinformation and deepfake media to influence the outcome or just sow discord. While U.S. authorities have been on high alert for such activity, no one can fully anticipate how the advent and maturation of this disruptive technology will influence the election. In the physical realm, the increasingly polarized political atmosphere will lend itself to a heightened risk of violence and/or protest activity, both before and immediately after the election.

Physical and Cyber Threats in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 23, 2024

Media

Iraq

Turkey

Podcasts

What do organizations need to know as this relationship evolves? 

Essential Geopolitics: What to Know About the Future of Turkey-Iraq Relations

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa greets supporters during an election rally on May 17, 2024, at Lakhis Sports Ground in Greytown, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. 

Economics

The May 29 election will likely usher in a new era of coalition governments in South Africa, with President Ramaphosa likely governing with the support of smaller, mostly centrist parties.

Previewing South Africa's General Election

Displaced Palestinians walk around a puddle in front of destroyed buildings and tents in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on May 16, 2024.

All of the options for the enclave's post-war governance would risk destabilizing the Israeli government and are unlikely to prevent the resurgence of Hamas and other militant groups.

The Dilemma of Gaza's Post-War Future Puts Israel in a Tight Spot

How does the Biden administration's approach compare to the former Trump administration's China strategy? 

Essential Geopolitics: The U.S. Tariff Strategy Against China

U.S.-China Relations

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

India

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Latest

Europe

Italy

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni speaks during a meeting at Palazzo Chigi in Rome, Italy, on May 13, 2024. 

Meloni's party is expected to perform strongly in the upcoming European Parliament elections, which would grant the Italian prime minister more sway over EU policymaking in the years ahead.

Under Meloni, Italy's Influence in the EU Is Set To Grow

Iran

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Russia

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

North Korea

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

The sun sets over a U.S. flag at a veterans cemetery in Los Angeles, California, in May 2018.

The act of formal remembrance is one of the most profound human gestures, whether it is conducted on the personal or the national level.

Memorial Day, The Eternal Observance 

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Netherlands

The four leaders of the parties that form the new Dutch government,  Geert Wilders, Dilan Yesilgoz, Caroline van der Plas and Pieter Omtzigt, (L-R) on May 16 in The Hague.

While some elements of the new Dutch ruling coalition's agreement, such as a tightening of migration policies and environmental measures, will likely cause friction with the European Union and the Dutch business community, the far right's need to collaborate with mainstream coalition partners has somewhat moderated the new government's agenda.

Building a New Government Moderates the Dutch Far Right

Georgia

Georgian students protest the government's controversial ''foreign agents'' bill in Tbilisi on May 13, 2024. 

While the bill's passage may increase and radicalize supporters of the pro-Western opposition, the ruling GD party is still favored to win upcoming elections, ensuring the country's continued reorientation toward Russia.

Georgia Is Set To Adopt Its Controversial 'Foreign Agents' Bill. What Now?

Senegal

Bassirou Diomaye Faye gives an address as Senegal's president at an exhibition center in the new town of Diamniadio near the capital Dakar on April 2, 2024.

Energy

Senegal's young new president will likely slow-walk his plans to renegotiate contracts with energy companies, but this could deny him access to the funding he needs to pursue his economic pledges.

Will Senegal's New President Overhaul Its Oil and Gas Sector?

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Columns

On Geopolitics

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

Haiti

Haiti's transitional presidential council voted on May 28 to install former Prime Minister Garry Conille as the country's new prime minister, though it is unclear when he will formally take office, Reuters reported May 29.

Haiti: Transitional Presidential Council Picks New Prime Minister

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi unveiled the composition of his new government, Reuters reported on May 29.

Congo: Tshisekedi Forms New Government

South Africans are voting in the country's most competitive general election since the end of apartheid in the early 1990s, Reuters reported on May 29.

South Africa: Most Competitive General Election Since the End of Apartheid Underway

Egypt

Israel's military claimed operational control of the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of territory in southern Gaza along the Egyptian border, The Times of Israel reported on May 29.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Claims Control of Key Philadelphi Corridor

Niger

Germany

The German defense ministry announced a new temporary agreement with Niger allowing it to extend the operation of its military air transport hub in Niamey beyond May 31, Reuters reported on May 28.

Niger, Germany: Berlin To Maintain Military Base in Niger Under Temporary Agreement

United Arab Emirates

South Korea and the United Arab Emirates signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) and memorandums of understanding (MOUs) to improve trade openness between the two countries by eliminating tariffs on 90% of imports over the next decade, expand economic investment and boost energy cooperation, Reuters reported May 29. 

UAE, South Korea: Countries Sign CEPA, MOUs to Cut 90% of Tariffs and Boost Energy Cooperation

Lebanon

Yemen

Iran has made its Qadr naval ballistic missile technology available to Yeman's Houthi rebels, who have developed the Muhit anti-ship ballistic missile inspired by Iran's Qadr, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported on May 29.

Iran, Yemen: Iran Providing Naval Ballistic Technology to Houthis

Science & Technology

China plans to establish national standards for corporate sustainability disclosure by 2030 to make Chinese companies' reports of ESG-related issues compatible with and comparable to those of their peers, the South China Morning Post reported on May 29. 

China: Beijing to Introduce Nationwide Climate Disclosure Requirement Standards by 2030

Guatemala

The Guatemalan Exporters Association said on May 23 that China prohibited coffee and macadamia nut imports from Guatemala without explanation, with shipments retained in Chinese ports, The Tico Times reported on May 24.

Guatemala, China: China Restricts Some Guatemalan Exports

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

The United States is expected to lift its ban on selling offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia within weeks, the Financial Times reported on May 26. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Expected To Lift Ban on Selling Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Under Meloni, Italy's Influence in the EU Is Set To Grow

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Haiti: Transitional Presidential Council Picks New Prime Minister

Congo: Tshisekedi Forms New Government

South Africa: Most Competitive General Election Since the End of Apartheid Underway

Israel, Gaza: Israel Claims Control of Key Philadelphi Corridor

Niger, Germany: Berlin To Maintain Military Base in Niger Under Temporary Agreement

UAE, South Korea: Countries Sign CEPA, MOUs to Cut 90% of Tariffs and Boost Energy Cooperation

Iran, Yemen: Iran Providing Naval Ballistic Technology to Houthis

China: Beijing to Introduce Nationwide Climate Disclosure Requirement Standards by 2030

Guatemala, China: China Restricts Some Guatemalan Exports

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Expected To Lift Ban on Selling Offensive Weapons to Saudi Arabia

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