Assessments

United States

Iran

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Cyber

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

Economics

Global Trade

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Bangladesh

A protest on Jan. 8 in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka.

If Bangladesh's interim government does hold a vote due to the lack of progress on electoral reforms, the risk of instability, economic difficulties and public discontent will rise, potentially leading to military intervention. 

How Bangladeshi Stability Depends Upon a Prompt Election 

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 17, 2025

Snapshots

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

Energy

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A general view shows Sri Lanka's Colombo port on April 9, 2025.

Textile exports from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will suffer under new U.S. tariffs, worsening economic hardships and risking political instability.

South Asia's Textile Industry Reels From U.S. Tariffs

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

Iraq

Yemen

Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Recent actions by Iran and its Iraqi proxies appear designed to appease the U.S. as the Trump administration weighs taking aggressive military action against them both.

To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy

Australia

Australian Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (L) debates Liberal opposition leader Peter Dutton on April 8, 2025, in Sydney, Australia. 

While another Labor government would portend domestic and foreign policy continuity, a victory by the Liberal-National coalition would signal a shift toward fiscal austerity, loosened energy regulations, expanded defense spending and stricter immigration regulations.

Australia's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Ecuador

Cambodia

China

Malaysia

Vietnam

Europe

Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, on March 11, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Xi Tours Southeast Asia, Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

Latest

Mexico

Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025. 

Although U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexico's economy in the short term, they may eventually grant Mexico a competitive advantage over countries that face even higher duties.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

Japan

South Korea

The Geopolitics of Trade

U.S. reciprocal tariffs will have major economic and political impacts on Japan and South Korea, particularly as both East Asian countries prepare for summer elections.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan

France

Russia

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

U.S.-China Relations

Chad

Sudan

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order after delivering remarks on reciprocal tariffs during an April 2 event in the Rose Garden in Washington. The U.S.–EU trade dispute is on track to escalate as Brussels prepares retaliation against Washington's sweeping 20% tariff on EU goods, increasing the risk of a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that would disrupt supply chains, slow growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strain broader cooperation. 

The developments could see a protracted tit-for-tat trade war that disrupts supply chains, slows growth on both sides of the Atlantic and strains broader cooperation.

Brussels Prepares to Respond to the Latest Trump Tariffs

French far-right Leader Marine Le Pen leaves the courtroom after a guilty verdict in her embezzlement case trial on March 31, 2025 in Paris, France. 

Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and an immediate five-year ban from public office has shaken French politics, threatening government stability and fueling far-right outrage ahead of the 2027 election.

Le Pen's Five-Year Political Ban Sets the Stage for Renewed Political Instability in France

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Poland

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Jordan

Jordan's interior minister announced that the government banned the Muslim Brotherhood -- the country's largest opposition group -- and confiscated its assets after the group was linked to a failed plot to attack targets in Jordan, Reuters reported on April 23. 

Jordan: Government Bans Muslim Brotherhood, Confiscates Its Assets

Brazil

Brazilian lawmaker Pedro Lucas Fernandes rejected an invitation from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to become communications minister two weeks after the government announced he would take the role, g1 reported on April 22.

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

Police updated the casualty figures of the April 22 suspected militant attack at Baisaran meadow near the Kashmiri resort town of Pahalgam, raising the death toll to at least 26, with another 17 people wounded, making it one of the worst attacks on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, Reuters reported on April 23.

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

Cote d'Ivoire

An Ivorian court effectively barred the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire, or PDCI, Tidjane Thiam, from running in the country's Oct. 25 presidential election after ruling that he had lost his Ivorian nationality, Reuters reported on April 22.

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

In a brief April 23 post on X, France's presidential office denied speculation of a potential new dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections in the coming months. 

France: Presidential Office Denies Rumors of Possible New Snap Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly told U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting on April 11 in St. Petersburg that Russia was prepared to freeze its invasion along the current frontlines in Ukraine as part of an effort to reach a U.S.-mediated peace deal, the Finacial Times reported on April 22, citing people familiar with the officials’ discussion.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Reportedly Offered To Freeze Conflict Along Frontlines

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russian President Vladimir Putin was prepared to evaluate an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop attacks against civilian infrastructure, The Guardian reported on April 22.

Russia, Ukraine: Leaders' Rhetoric Suggests Opening for Limited Ceasefire

Science & Technology

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Philippines

Taiwan

The Philippines significantly eased restrictions on engagement with Taiwan by allowing Philippine officials to host Taiwanese officials and by allowing Taiwanese delegations to visit the island, though Manila maintained prior prohibitions on top national security leaders like the president and defense minister, Nikkei Asia reported on April 22.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

South Sudan

The South Sudanese government recaptured the town of Nasir from the Nuer-led White Army militia, Reuters reported on April 21.

South Sudan: Government Recaptures Strategic Town of Nasir 

Laos

Thailand

The United States imposed antidumping and countervailing duties ranging from an effective 0% to 3,521% on solar panels and modules imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, according to U.S. Commerce Department data published on April 22, with rates on the affected exporting companies depending on their level of cooperation with the U.S. investigation.

U.S., ASEAN: New U.S. Tariffs To Hammer Solar Panel Exports, Chinese Transshipment

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Jordan: Government Bans Muslim Brotherhood, Confiscates Its Assets

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

India: Kashmir Attack's Death Toll Rises, Pakistan-Linked Group Claims Responsibility

Cote d’Ivoire: Court Bars Opposition Leader Tidjane Thiam From Running in Presidential Election

France: Presidential Office Denies Rumors of Possible New Snap Elections

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Reportedly Offered To Freeze Conflict Along Frontlines

Russia, Ukraine: Leaders' Rhetoric Suggests Opening for Limited Ceasefire

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Significantly Relaxes Restrictions on Engagement With Taipei

South Sudan: Government Recaptures Strategic Town of Nasir

U.S., ASEAN: New U.S. Tariffs To Hammer Solar Panel Exports, Chinese Transshipment

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