Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Israel

Lebanon

Podcasts

What are Israel and Hezbollah's goals from their escalating tit-for-tat exchanges?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Israel and Hezbollah's Border Crisis

Niger

United States

Military & Security

What are Niger's security options going forward?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Niger's Security Landscape

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 11, 2024

Belarus

Russia

Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko gives a speech during his annual address to the Belarusian People and the National Assembly in Minsk on Jan. 28, 2022.

Economics

Politics

The upcoming All-Belarusian People's Assembly is poised to deepen Belarus' ties with Russia while also laying the groundwork for President Lukashenko's eventual succession process.

In Belarus, a Congress Will Lock in Integration With Russia -- and Lukashenko's Legacy

A picture taken from the southern Lebanese village of Alma al-Shaab shows smoke rising from an Israeli outpost after a rocket attack by Hezbollah fighters on April 6, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

As the Gaza conflict winds down, both sides will likely eventually seek a diplomatic resolution. But their expanding tit-for-tat exchanges nonetheless risk triggering a wider war.

Israel and Hezbollah Prefer Diplomacy, but Risks of War Remain Elevated

Snapshots

Palestinian Territories

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

Pakistan

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Ecuador

Mexico

Police guard stand outside the Mexican embassy in Quito, Ecuador, on April 8, 2024. 

President Noboa likely hoped the raid would show his commitment to combatting corruption, but it has only left his government with more enemies at home and abroad.

Ecuador's Raid on the Mexican Embassy Risks Backfiring on Its President

Japan

Philippines

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (center), flanked by two other U.S. officials, is seen during a meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo (not pictured) on the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly at the Lotte Palace Hotel in New York City on Sept. 22, 2023.

Cyber

A partnership between the three countries will likely improve freedom of navigation and economic security in the South China Sea, but may also raise the risk of trade disputes and conflict with China.

What To Watch for During the Inaugural U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit

Iran

South Korea

Poland

People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

U.S.-China Relations

Europe

United Kingdom

A rendering of Earth from space at night with abstract 5G connection zones. 

Environment, Science & Technology

In the United Kingdom and the United States, a focus on innovation will sideline robust artificial intelligence regulations.

The U.S. and U.K. Ramp Up Innovation-Focused AI Collaboration

Latest

India

India's 2024 general election, which will be held from April 19 to June 1, will likely result in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party retaining control of the government.

2024 Elections: India

Glass-like molecules float against a green and purple background.

Energy

The European Union's gradual adoption of green hydrogen will bolster its energy security and create new global energy relations.

Europe's Green Hydrogen Future, Part 2: Charting the Path

Nigeria

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

France

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Turkey

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Haiti

A woman carrying a child runs from an area in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, after hearing gunshots on March 20, 2024.

The Caribbean nation's humanitarian and security crises are set to worsen in the weeks ahead, as gangs seize more territory and the U.N.-backed security deployment faces delays.

In Haiti, Weeks of Extreme Gang Violence Show No Sign of Easing

Ukraine

Afghanistan

Emergency services vehicles are seen outside the burning Crocus City Hall concert hall following a shooting incident in Krasnogorsk, outside Moscow, Russia, on March 22, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While the attack was likely conducted by Islamist extremists or North Caucasian groups, the Kremlin will nonetheless use the mass casualty incident to further villainize Ukraine and the West, and expand its war efforts against Kyiv.

What To Make of the Deadly Terrorist Attack in Moscow

10,000 yen notes on Sept. 24, 2022, in Tokyo.

A decision by the Bank of Japan to end negative interest rate and yield curve control policies is meant to reestablish greater monetary policy flexibility.

In a Boost for the Banking Sector, Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Columns

On Geopolitics

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

China

Vietnam

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

On Security

Argentina

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Science & Technology

A large-scale cyberattack has disrupted shared computer servers in at least five municipalities on the west coast of France near the river Loire since April 9, affecting email and phone telecommunications, The Record reported on April 11.

France: Cyberattack Disrupts Servers in Five Municipalities

Colombia

The National Liberation Army, or ELN, announced that it would freeze peace talks with the Colombian government after alleging that Bogota engaged in parallel talks with an ELN faction in bad faith, Reuters reported on April 11.

Colombia: National Liberation Army Suspends Participation in Government Peace Talks

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA, publicly disclosed that Russian government-linked hackers had stolen emails between several U.S. federal agencies and Microsoft during a previously disclosed monthslong hack, including potential login credentials and passwords, Politico reported on April 11.

U.S.: Russian Hackers Steal Federal Agency Emails, Compromise Credentials

On April 11, Mexico submitted formal proceedings against Ecuador in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), arguing that the latter "violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law" by raiding the Mexican embassy in Ecuador on April 5, and therefore should be suspended from the United Nations, according to an April 11 press release from the International Court of Justice. 

Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN

South Africa

South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission, or IEC, asked the Constitutional Court to provide clarity on the Electoral Court's ruling that allows former President Jacob Zuma to run on the Umkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party candidate list, Bloomberg reported on April 12.

South Africa: Electoral Commission Approaches Constitutional Court on Zuma Candidacy 

China's State Council released new guidelines for stock markets aimed at improving the quality of listed firms, including requiring full disclosure of dividend policies, tightening corporate governance rules to boost investment value and curbing stake sales by large shareholders, Bloomberg reported on April 12. 

China: New Rules Meant to Align Stock Market With Beijing's Policy Plans

Niger's public broadcaster RTN said 100 Russian military instructors had landed at the international airport in Niamey, Al Jazeera reported on April 12.

Niger: Russia Deploys Military Trainers, Air-Defense Systems

Ethiopia

Kenya

Somalia

Kenya proposed a regional maritime treaty that will govern how landlocked countries can secure commercial port access with a view of de-escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, Reuters reported on April 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

Hong Kong SAR, China

Taiwan

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Syria

Israel is preparing for an Iranian attack on southern or northern Israel over April 12-13, although an Iranian leader reportedly said Tehran had not made a final decision, The Wall Street Journal reported late on April 11, citing people familiar with the matter. 

Iran, Israel: Iranian Attack on Israel Expected on April 12-13

Israeli and U.S. officials are increasingly convinced that most of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza are dead, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 11, citing sources familiar with the ongoing hostage negotiations.

Israel, Gaza: Many Israeli Hostages in Gaza May Be Dead

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

2024 Elections: India

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

France: Cyberattack Disrupts Servers in Five Municipalities

Colombia: National Liberation Army Suspends Participation in Government Peace Talks

U.S.: Russian Hackers Steal Federal Agency Emails, Compromise Credentials

Ecuador, Mexico: Mexico Files Complaint With ICJ to Remove Ecuador From UN

South Africa: Electoral Commission Approaches Constitutional Court on Zuma Candidacy

China: New Rules Meant to Align Stock Market With Beijing's Policy Plans

Niger: Russia Deploys Military Trainers, Air-Defense Systems

Ethiopia, Somalia: Kenya Proposes Treaty To Resolve Maritime Dispute Between Ethiopia and Somalia

Iran, Israel: Iranian Attack on Israel Expected on April 12-13

Israel, Gaza: Many Israeli Hostages in Gaza May Be Dead

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support