Assessments

Mozambique

Mexico

China

South Korea

United Kingdom

Security personnel walk on a road with buses blocking an entrance gate to protect impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from a possible second arrest in Seoul on Jan. 6. If Yoon is not arrested, the opposition could again seek to impeach the country's acting president due to his insufficient support for the arrest efforts, worsening foreign perceptions of political instability in South Korea.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Germany

Ukraine

Russia

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Egypt

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters is seen on March 27, 2020, in Washington, D.C. 

The partial privatization of state- and military-owned assets will increase Egypt's foreign currency reserves, but it will likely only somewhat boost productivity and business competition.

IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt's Privatization Efforts

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

United States

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Military & Security

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Jan. 9, 2025

Sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta, Guinea's President Alpha Conde, US President Donald Trump, African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina, Vice President of Nigeria Yemi Osinbajo and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn pose on May 27, 2017 in Taormina, Sicily.

The Trump administration's more zero-sum approach to countering Chinese influence in Africa may find some success but risks alienating several African states, potentially enabling China to strengthen its foothold.

What to Expect From Trump 2.0's Approach to Africa

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Media

Japan

Podcasts

How do demographic trends impact military power?

Applied Geopolitics: Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of Troops in Conflict

The Port of Houston Authority is seen during a strike among members of the International Longshoreman's Association on Oct. 1, 2024, in Houston, Texas. 

A dispute over port automation, along with the impending transition from Biden to Trump, will hinder progress in newly resumed talks between U.S. longshoremen and their employers, creating the risk of a highly disruptive strike.

The U.S. Braces for Another, Likely More Disruptive, Port Strike

Snapshots

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Environment, Science & Technology

What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation

U.S.-China Relations

Latest

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Trump's fiscal, deregulation and trade policies may initially boost U.S. economic growth, but potentially to the detriment of the rest of the world.

What To Expect From Trump's Economic Policies

Afghanistan

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Lebanon

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

Palestinian Territories

Israeli, Arab and U.S. officials said Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas had agreed in principle to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported on Jan 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

The European Union found in its first investigation under the International Procurement Instrument, or IPI, "clear evidence of China limiting the access of EU medical devices producers to its government contracts in an unfair and discriminatory way," The South China Morning Post reported on Jan. 14.

EU, China: EU Probe Finds Market Access Inequities in China, Portends More Trade Restrictions

Science & Technology

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new executive order that will direct federal agencies to identify and lease federal sites to private sector companies in order to facilitate artificial intelligence infrastructure development, according to a White House statement published on Jan. 14. 

U.S.: White House Announces Executive Order To Bolster AI Infrastructure

Armenia

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed a Strategic Partnership Commission Charter at a ceremony in Washington, D.C., Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

Armenia, U.S.: Washington and Yerevan Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement

The European Union is reassessing its ongoing investigations launched under the Digital Markets Act since March 2024, including investigations into U.S. tech companies Apple, Meta and Google, The Financial Times reported on Jan. 14.

EU: Brussels Reassesses Ongoing Investigations Into U.S. Tech Companies

Militants belonging to Islamic State West African Province, or ISWAP, and Jama'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jihad, also known as JAS or Boko Haram, on Jan. 14  killed at least 40 people from Nigeria's Dumba community in Borno state, Reuters reported the following day. 

Nigeria: JAS and ISWAP Militants Kill 40 Civilians Amid Surge in Attacks

Seoul police and investigators from South Korea's anti-corruption body met to discuss methods for their second arrest attempt against President Yoon Suk Yeol, Yonhap News reported on Jan. 14.

South Korea: Second Attempt to Arrest President Yoon Imminent

Chinese social media apps Xiaohongshu, or RedNote, and Lemon8 are the top two most downloaded apps in Apple's App Store, and Xiaohonshu is one of the top 10 most downloaded apps in the Google Play Store, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13. 

U.S.: Looming TikTok Ban Prompts Shift to Other Chinese Apps While China Considers Possible Sale to Musk

A spokesperson for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, said enabling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to run for a fourth term in the 2028 presidential election was "on the agenda" but depended on Turkish citizens' interest, Reuters reported on Jan. 13.

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched more than 200 drones and other munitions against military facilities and infrastructure deep inside Russia, making it the largest Ukrainian air attack in terms of the number of drones since the beginning of the war, Agentstvo reported Jan. 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

EU, China: EU Probe Finds Market Access Inequities in China, Portends More Trade Restrictions

U.S.: White House Announces Executive Order To Bolster AI Infrastructure

Armenia, U.S.: Washington and Yerevan Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement

EU: Brussels Reassesses Ongoing Investigations Into U.S. Tech Companies

Nigeria: JAS and ISWAP Militants Kill 40 Civilians Amid Surge in Attacks

South Korea: Second Attempt to Arrest President Yoon Imminent

U.S.: Looming TikTok Ban Prompts Shift to Other Chinese Apps While China Considers Possible Sale to Musk

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

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