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What role does AI play as both a disruptor and a tool in the risk management space? 

Applied Geopolitics: Leveraging AI To Anticipate and Mitigate Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks 

Assessments

United States

Iran

Jordan

Syria

Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan hold the movement's flag during a demonstration in the capital, Amman, on Nov. 28, 2014.

Military & Security

Politics

Militant factions of the Muslim Brotherhood will likely go underground in Jordan following the government's ban on the organization, but Iranian influence and persistent socioeconomic grievances will sustain risks of violence.

In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground

Europe

United Kingdom

A digital illustration of the U.K. and EU flags.

The agreements will institutionalize defense cooperation and ease trade frictions, though lingering political constraints will limit deeper integration in the near term.

The U.K.-EU Deal Signals a Strategic Recalibration of Post-Brexit Trade and Defense Relations

South Africa

China

Taiwan

Portugal

Poland

Romania

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 21 during an official trip to the United States.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's U.S. Reset, Three European Elections

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address in Lima on July 28, 2024.

The potential for reduced political volatility once a new president takes office in July 2026, combined with efforts to reduce bureaucratic red tape, could help the country attract foreign investment, especially in its crucial mining sector.

In Peru, Greater Political Stability Could Unleash Economic Growth

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Turkey

How does Turkey's political uncertainty affect its economic outlook?

Essential Geopolitics: Turkey's Current Political Environment

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Energy

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

Columns

On Geopolitics

Global Trade

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 15, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One on May 14, 2025, as he flies to Doha, Qatar, for his first trip to the Middle East since returning to the White House. 

Trump's decision to lift sanctions will help kickstart Syria's war-torn economy and strengthen its new government, but sectarian infighting, Israeli aggression and a resurging Islamic State could still hamper progress.

In Syria, the Promise and Limits of U.S. Sanctions Relief

Snapshots

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Latest

South Korea

Supporters of Kim Moon Soo, the opposition candidate running in South Korea's June 3 presidential election, react during a campaign event in Seoul on May 19, 2025.

A ruling party victory would portend a continuation of Yoon's pro-business, pro-U.S. policies, while an opposition victory would see Seoul focus more on improving domestic economic equity and increasing engagement with North Korea and China.

South Korea's Presidential Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Nigeria

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

Australia

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton concedes defeat during a Liberal Party election night event on May 3, 2025, in Brisbane, Australia. 

The collapse of the center-right Liberal-National Coalition (LNC) will grant the ruling Labor Party freer rein to implement energy transition, industrial investment and fiscal reform policies.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

India

Pakistan

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

U.S.-China Relations

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

Ukraine

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Iraq

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Israel

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Science & Technology

Pakistan's military on May 21 accused India of "plann[ing] and orchestrat[ing]" a suicide bombing earlier the same day that targeted children on their way to a military-run school in Pakistan's restive southwestern province, killing some five people and wounding 38 others, AP reported on May 21.

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

The European Commission proposed amendments to the General Data Protection Regulation in the bloc's latest Omnibus Simplification Package, released on May 21. 

EU: Proposed GDPR Amendments Unlikely To Increase Competitiveness

Venezuela

The Venezuelan government released a U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, AP reported on May 20.

Venezuela, U.S.: Release of U.S. Veteran Unlikely To Avert Eventual Oil License Suspension

Japan

Japanese agriculture minister Taku Eto resigned and will be replaced by former environment minister Shinjiro Koizumi, The Asahi Shimbun reported on May 21.

Japan: Agriculture Minister Resigns, LDP Facing Electoral Headwinds

Sudan

United Arab Emirates

Sudanese U.N. ambassador Al-Harith Idriss accused the United Arab Emirates of directly conducting drone strikes on Port Sudan in early May, Africanews reported on May 20.

Sudan: Army Accuses UAE of May 4 Drone Attacks on Port Sudan

Mexico

The U.S. Commerce Department published rules for companies to obtain discounts on U.S. auto import tariffs, El Economista reported on May 20.

Canada, Mexico, U.S.: USMCA Auto Tariff Discount To Partially Preserve Preferential Access to U.S. Market

The center-right Democratic Alliance said it "cautiously" supported the third iteration of South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana's 2025 budget presented to South Africa's National Assembly, News24 reported on May 21. 

South Africa: Democratic Alliance 'Cautiously' Backs Third Budget Iteration 

Germany

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

The European Commission on May 21 unveiled a new single market strategy aimed at cutting 400 million euros (about $454 million) in annual administrative costs and removing barriers that hinder trade, investment and competition across the European Union, a press release shows.

EU: European Commission Launches Simplification Strategy for Single Market

Palestinian Territories

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas visited Beirut, marking his first trip to Lebanon since 2017, to discuss disarming Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon with President Joseph Aoun, France 24 reported on May 21. 

Lebanon: Palestinian President in Beirut To Discuss Disarming Palestinian Refugee Camps

Abu Dhabi's Technology Innovation Institute released a new version of its Arabic-language large language model, Falcon Arabic, claiming that the model matches the performance of those 10 times its size, Bloomberg reported on May 21.

UAE: New Falcon AI Model Signals Ambitious Tech Goals

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Collapse of Australia's Conservative Coalition Reshapes Political Landscape, Further Empowers Labor

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, India: Islamabad Claims Suicide Bombing Targeting Schoolchildren Had Links to India

EU: Proposed GDPR Amendments Unlikely To Increase Competitiveness

Venezuela, U.S.: Release of U.S. Veteran Unlikely To Avert Eventual Oil License Suspension

Japan: Agriculture Minister Resigns, LDP Facing Electoral Headwinds

Sudan: Army Accuses UAE of May 4 Drone Attacks on Port Sudan

Canada, Mexico, U.S.: USMCA Auto Tariff Discount To Partially Preserve Preferential Access to U.S. Market

South Africa: Democratic Alliance 'Cautiously' Backs Third Budget Iteration

EU: European Commission Launches Simplification Strategy for Single Market

Lebanon: Palestinian President in Beirut To Discuss Disarming Palestinian Refugee Camps

UAE: New Falcon AI Model Signals Ambitious Tech Goals

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