Assessments

Canada

United States

Iran

Europe

Italy

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Economics

Will India be able to stay on track for its growth goals?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Snapshots

Russia

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 24, 2025

Mexico

China

Trucks travel by the U.S.-Mexico border after crossing the border into the United States at Otay Mesa, California, on April 2, 2025. 

Global Trade

Although U.S. tariffs will hurt Mexico's economy in the short term, they may eventually grant Mexico a competitive advantage over countries that face even higher duties.

The Buffers That Will Help Mexico Navigate Tariff Turbulence

France

United Kingdom

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Japan

South Korea

The Geopolitics of Trade

U.S. reciprocal tariffs will have major economic and political impacts on Japan and South Korea, particularly as both East Asian countries prepare for summer elections.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on South Korea and Japan

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Lebanon

Syria

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Cyber

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

Latest

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

A woman walks by anti-U.S. murals on the walls of the former U.S. embassy in downtown Tehran, Iran, on April 11, 2025. 

Energy

The U.S. will likely have to allow some Iranian uranium enrichment to ink a nuclear deal, likely resulting in Saudi Arabia seeking similar provisions for its own civilian nuclear program.

With Iran and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Faces a Uranium Enrichment Dilemma

A digital illustration of the Chinese and EU flags.

Transatlantic trade tensions have created a window for tactical EU-China engagement, but structural constraints and unresolved disputes limit prospects for meaningful realignment.

Budding EU-China Rapprochement Amid U.S. Tariffs Will Have Its Limits

U.S.-China Relations

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Global Elections

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

South Africa

Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen holds a press conference in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Jan. 28, 2025.

Rising tensions between the ruling ANC and its key coalition partner over the 2025 budget are raising the risk of a coalition breakdown, which would threaten policy paralysis and a marked depreciation of the rand.

What the Democratic Alliance's Exit From Government Would Mean for South Africa

Cranes unload shipping containers from a ship at a port in Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 2, 2025. 

The timing and scope of Beijing's retaliatory measures signal a significant escalation of its trade war with Washington, which may nonetheless increase the long-term chance of a trade deal.

China Abandons Restraint With Latest Trade Salvo Against the U.S.

Chad

Sudan

A photo of Khartoum, Sudan, with columns of smoke rising in the background.

The SAF's military victory in Khartoum marks a turning point in the country's civil war, but a firm resolution remains out of reach as the RSF fights to consolidate control in the west.

What Next for Sudan After the Army Retakes Khartoum?

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Germany

Poland

Spain

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Brazil

Brazil's two largest organized criminal groups, the Sao Paulo-based First Capital Command, or PCC, and the Rio de Janeiro-headquartered Red Command, or CV, announced the end of their countrywide truce that had been in force since February, CNN Brasil reported on April 29. 

Brazil: End of Organized Criminal Groups' Truce To Increase Indirect Security Risks

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was still waiting to hear back from Kyiv regarding Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire from May 8-10, while also saying Russia would not agree to an immediate 30-day ceasefire proposed by Ukraine until "nuances" are addressed, The Moscow Times reported on April 29.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

South Korea's Supreme Court will rule on an election law violation case against Lee Jae-myung, the former head of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea and current frontrunner for the June 3 early presidential election, on May 1, Yonhap News Agency reported on April 29.

South Korea: Court To Rule on Presidential Frontrunner on May 1

Philippines

Taiwan

Philippine Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Manila's chief military spokesperson on South China Sea issues, confirmed that the Philippine and Taiwanese navies are engaged in "unofficial and informal" engagements, and he mentioned the possibility of joint patrols in the Luzon Strait as part of broader multilateral engagement, state media TaiwanPlus News reported on April 29.

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

The United States and Mexico reached agreements on a recent dispute involving a 1944 water-sharing deal and on a controversy around the handling of the livestock pest screwworm, Reuters reported on April 28.

U.S., Mexico: Agreements on Contentious Issues Unlikely To Reduce Trade Tensions Over Coming Months

Clashes between Druze and Sunni gunmen in the Druze-majority town of Jaramana reportedly resulted in the deaths of 13 individuals after a recording of a Druze man allegedly cursing the Prophet Muhammad circulated, drawing in Sunni gunmen from nearby areas, Reuters reported April 29.

Syria: Druze and Sunnis Clash Near Damascus, Killing 13

Cameroon

Cameroonian President Paul Biya is mulling a Cabinet reshuffle following his appointments of new members to the central committee of the ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement party, or RDPC, in late March, Jeune Afrique reported on April 28.

Cameroon: President Paul Biya Likely To Run for an Eighth Term

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order on April 29 that will exempt automakers from U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs if they are already being charged for other tariffs, The Wall Street Journal reported on April 28.

U.S.: White House To Ease Some Tariffs on Automakers

Science & Technology

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Turkey

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Vietnam

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh met in Hanoi, Vietnam, to reaffirm the two countries' comprehensive strategic partnership, Nikkei Asia reported on April 28.

Japan, Vietnam: Ishiba Visit Deepens Semiconductor, Clean Energy and Defense Ties

China and the Philippines both planted flags on Sandy Cay, a group of sandbars in the disputed Spratly Islands of the South China Sea, amid conflicting claims of control, The Washington Post reported on April 28. 

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: End of Organized Criminal Groups' Truce To Increase Indirect Security Risks

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Pushes Back on Ukraine's Proposal for Immediate Ceasefire

South Korea: Court To Rule on Presidential Frontrunner on May 1

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

U.S., Mexico: Agreements on Contentious Issues Unlikely To Reduce Trade Tensions Over Coming Months

Syria: Druze and Sunnis Clash Near Damascus, Killing 13

Cameroon: President Paul Biya Likely To Run for an Eighth Term

U.S.: White House To Ease Some Tariffs on Automakers

Japan, Vietnam: Ishiba Visit Deepens Semiconductor, Clean Energy and Defense Ties

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

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