Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 4, 2024

China

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Military & Security

Politics

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

Snapshots

France

Graffiti reading 'June 30 Popular Front' after the results of the first round of parliamentary elections were announced June 30 in Paris. The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

The first round of France's legislative election confirmed that the country is moving toward severe policy uncertainty as a hung parliament or a far-right government emerge as the two likeliest scenarios for the second round.

French Elections See a Win for the Far Right, and for Policy Uncertainty

Global Elections

Iran

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak holds a campaign event on June 24, 2024, in London.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: SCO Leaders Meet, France and the U.K. Hold Elections

Israel

Lebanon

An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon would likely see Iran's regional proxies provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, while a broader Israeli campaign would raise the risk of a regional war. 

Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

U.S.-Iran Relations

Mongolia

Mongolia is seen on a stock photo of a map.

Economics

Energy

The ruling party's expected victory in the June 28 parliamentary ballot portends limited progress on efforts to combat corruption and reduce Mongolia's trade reliance on Russia and China.

In Mongolia, Elections Highlight Glacial Pace of Economic and Foreign Policy Shifts

Kenya

Protesters participate in a nationwide rally against a controversial tax bill in downtown Nairobi, Kenya, on June 27, 2024. 

The Kenyan government axed its $2.3 billion tax plan amid mass deadly protests, but budget cuts to offset the revenue shortfall could reignite protests and potentially derail Nairobi's fiscal consolidation plans.

In Kenya, Scrapped Tax Hikes Put the Government in a Bind

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 27, 2024

Ethiopia

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Europe

Russia

India

A map illustrating Turkey (in red) and the BRICS countries (in blue).

Joining BRICS would underscore Turkey's balancing act between the West and the Global South, but the organization's weaknesses will limit its potential for economic growth.

For Turkey, BRICS Is Far From a Political and Economic Panacea

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro sits in front of a Colombian flag during a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 6, 2023. 

The president's struggle to find consensus with lawmakers will likely see him resort to controversial decrees or referendums to try to enact his proposed policy reforms. 

In Colombia, Ongoing Legislative Gridlock Bodes Ill for Petro's Reform Agenda

Sudan

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attends a signing ceremony following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on May 23, 2024. 

Bahrain-Iran normalization would reduce risks for Manama amid rising regional tensions, but security and some political vulnerabilities remain.

Normalization With Iran Would Reduce -- but Not Eliminate -- Security Risks for Bahrain

Latest

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe's agricultural and industrial sectors, as well as energy production, will suffer under worsening water stress in the coming years.

What To Expect From Water Stress in Europe

The United Kingdom's Parliament building in London.

A likely Labour government would shift the United Kingdom's economic and energy priorities, but foreign policy would remain largely consistent.

After 14 Years, What Would a U.K. Labour Government Look Like?

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) before a meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Dec. 6, 2021.

Modi's upcoming talks with Putin highlight strong India-Russia ties and may lead to a final agreement on expanded defense cooperation and military exchanges.

Modi's Visit to Moscow Spotlights Strong India-Russia Ties

Sunflower and wheat fields in Canakkale, Turkey, on June 25, 2024.

Extreme weather is threatening Turkey's agricultural sector, as rising costs have increased farmers' debt burdens in the absence of sufficient government aid.

In Turkey, Farmers' Debt Burdens Rise Alongside Extreme Weather Events

North Korea

Portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are displayed in Pyongyang, North Korea, for Putin's visit to the country on June 20, 2024. 

Russia's deepening ties with North Korea are meant to draw U.S. attention and resources away from Ukraine by increasing the threat of conflict in another region.

The Significance of Russia and North Korea's New Defense Pact

Columns

On Geopolitics

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

Japan

New Zealand

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

In a July 5 live address, Kenyan President William Ruto announced that the National Treasury would reduce public spending by approximately $1.4 billion and would borrow the remaining amount to cover a deficit equivalent to 4.6% of the country's GDP for the fiscal year ending in June 2025.

Kenya: President Announces Austerity Measures Following Deadly Nationwide Protests

Six soldiers died on July 4 after falling into a minefield in Colombia's Antioquia department while clashing with members of the Central General Staff (EMC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) armed rebel groups, DW reported.

Colombia: Six Soldiers Die in Minefield Following Clashes With Rebel Groups

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has concluded discussions with the ad hoc Bondholder Committee of International Sovereign Bonds, reaching an agreement on restructuring terms for approximately $12.5 billion of its $37 billion total external debt, The Hindu reported July 4.

Sri Lanka: Country Reaches Provisional Deal With Private Bondholders

The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched its largest attack against Israel on June 4 in response to the Israeli killing of a prominent regional commander, Reuters reported the same day.

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Largest Barrage Yet

Japan and the Philippines will hold a so-called ''2+2'' meeting between their foreign and defense ministers in Manila on July 8, Nikkei Asia reported July 5.

Japan, Philippines: Meeting Likely To Produce Reciprocal Access Agreement

The Chinese and Russian navies will undertake joint drills in the East China Sea, The South China Morning Post reported on July 5, citing a July 4 announcement from Russia's Ministry of Defense.

China, Russia: Moscow Announces Joint Naval Drills in the East China Sea

Tunisia

Lotfi Mraihi, the leader of Tunisia's opposition Republican Union Party and a presidential hopeful, was arrested by Tunisian police on charges of money laundering, The New Arab reported June 4.

Tunisia: Prominent Opposition Leader Arrested

Hungary

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine, marking the first visit by the leader of an EU member state to Russia since April 2022, Politico reported on July 5.

Hungary, Russia: Orban Meets Putin in Moscow Amid EU Criticism

Science & Technology

A man walks past campaign posters for France's upcoming legislative elections in Parempuyre, southwestern France, on June 25, 2024.

The election of a far-right or far-left government would increase uncertainty about France's financial outlook and weaken the country's influence on EU economic policy issues, as well as its support to Ukraine.

France's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

Palestinian Territories

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

The United Kingdom's Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak resigned, and King Charles appointed Labour leader Keir Starmer as prime minister and invited him to form the next British government, BBC reported on July 5.

U.K.: Labour Takes Over British Government After General Election Landslide Victory

Israel's security Cabinet sent a new delegation to Doha, Qatar, to resume cease-fire negotiations with Hamas after the Palestinian militant group reportedly weakened its demand for an immediate and lasting path to ending the war in Gaza, The Times of Israel reported on July 4. 

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Negotiations Resume After Hamas Weakens Key Demand

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

Modi's Visit to Moscow Spotlights Strong India-Russia Ties

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kenya: President Announces Austerity Measures Following Deadly Nationwide Protests

Colombia: Six Soldiers Die in Minefield Following Clashes With Rebel Groups

Sri Lanka: Country Reaches Provisional Deal With Private Bondholders

Lebanon, Israel: Hezbollah Launches Largest Barrage Yet

Japan, Philippines: Meeting Likely To Produce Reciprocal Access Agreement

China, Russia: Moscow Announces Joint Naval Drills in the East China Sea

Tunisia: Prominent Opposition Leader Arrested

Hungary, Russia: Orban Meets Putin in Moscow Amid EU Criticism

U.K.: Labour Takes Over British Government After General Election Landslide Victory

Israel, Gaza: Hostage Negotiations Resume After Hamas Weakens Key Demand

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