Assessments

Indonesia

The three candidates running in Indonesia's 2024 presidential race -- Anies Baswedan (left), Prabowo Subianto (center) and Ganjar Pranowo (right) -- attend a debate in Jakarta on Feb. 4, 2024. 

Politics

Outgoing President Jokowi's efforts to consolidate power and his preferred successor's history of authoritarianism risk eroding the rule of law in the world's third-largest democracy.

Previewing Indonesia's Presidential Election

Argentina

Brazil

Mexico

Different currency exchanges are seen outside the Mexican Stock Exchange building at Reforma Avenue in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2024. 

Economics

Mexico and Brazil are better positioned to take advantage of falling U.S. interest rates than Argentina, where political and economic uncertainty will remain high as its new president's reforms are tested.

How Will Changing Global Conditions Impact Latin America's Largest Economies?

United Kingdom

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

A photo taken on Jan. 20, 2024, shows cars driving by campaign billboard posters in Sao Pedro do Estoril, Portugal, ahead of the country's March 10 parliamentary elections. 

Social Issues

Of the various European countries holding elections this year, Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Romania and the U.K.'s votes have the potential to yield the most drastic leadership and policy changes.

Previewing Europe's 2024 National Elections

Media

United States

China

Podcasts

Cyber

Military & Security

How effective are Washignton's campaigns against foreign cyber espionage?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S. Efforts To Combat China's Hacking Campaign

U.S.-China Relations

El Salvador

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Germany

Pakistan

A picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Yunis during an Israeli bombardment on Feb. 2, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Potential Gaza Cease-Fire, Elections in Pakistan and El Salvador

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

Ukraine

Russia

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Pakistan's former prime minister and the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party, Nawaz Sharif (center), waves to supporters during a campaign rally in Lahore, Pakistan, on Jan. 23, 2024. 

In the likely case that former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif wins a fourth term, he will prioritize managing the country's deepening economic crisis.

Previewing Pakistan's Parliamentary Elections

On Security

Chile

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Guatemala

Panama

Peru

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 1, 2024

Iraq

A woman holding an Iranian flag poses in front of an anti-U.S. mural on a wall of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Nov. 4, 2023. 

While Iran appears to be pressing its regional proxies to suspend their attacks on U.S. troops, Tehran's continued support of such groups will still make it harder to find a path toward peace with Washington.

Iran-U.S. Tensions Will Remain High, Despite Both Sides' Desire To Avoid a War

India

An Indian paramilitary trooper stands guard as Hindu devotees pray at the Shankaracharya temple in Srinagar on Jan. 22, 2024. 

As regional elections in Jammu and Kashmir grow near and the risks of protest and terrorist attacks increase, an eventual mass-casualty attack would risk triggering military escalation between India and Pakistan. 

Fresh Elections Could See Risks Reemerge in Jammu and Kashmir

Latest

Colombia

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

Snapshots

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Ukraine's military chief Valery Zaluzhny is seen on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

The commander-in-chief's dismissal would risk undermining national unity while doing little to aid Kyiv's war effort, and appears largely driven by difficult questions over further mobilization measures.

What To Make of Zelensky's Alleged Plan To Remove Ukraine's Top General

Hong Kong SAR, China

People in Hong Kong wave Chinese flags in celebration of the 26th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover from Britain to China on July 1, 2023. 

New national security provisions will further erode Hong Kong's status as a safe haven for China-facing businesses, while impeding Western efforts to mitigate competition with China.

China's Campaign To Curb Foreign Influence Comes to Hong Kong

Venezuela

Maria Corina Machado, the leading opposition candidate in Venezuela's 2024 presidential race, speaks to supporters during a rally in Caracas on Jan. 23, 2024. 

The move to bar Machado from the 2024 presidential race could see the U.S. reimpose harsh sanctions on Caracas, but this is unlikely to keep Maduro from quelching threats to his power.

In Venezuela, an Opposition Candidate's Disqualification Dims Hopes for Free and Fair Elections

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan (center) attends a mini-summit on the sidelines of the 36th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Feb.17, 2023.

The opposition party's demands for greater reforms risk triggering a security crackdown that would harm Tanzania's new image as a safe and stable investment destination.

Opposition Rallies Test Tanzania's Commitment to Political Liberalization

People line up to view a statue of Rama, a Hindu deity, at the newly consecrated Ram Temple on Jan. 23, 2024, in Ayodhya, India. 

The inauguration of the historically charged Hindu temple is a major win for Modi's party, which had defended its construction for decades, and will likely help it secure another term in India's April-May general elections.

In India, the Ram Temple's Consecration Is Set to Boost Modi's Re-Election Bid

The growing patchwork of local laws in the U.S. will pose compliance challenges for companies operating across state lines.

In the Absence of a Federal Framework, U.S. States Enact Their Own Data Privacy Laws

Yemen

A Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft returns to berth following a strike mission on Yemen's Houthi rebels at RAF Akrotiri on Jan. 12, 2024, in Akrotiri, Cyprus. While U.S.-British joint strikes on the Houthis will degrade some of their capabilities, they are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

The strikes will degrade some Houthi capabilities, but are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

What Western Strikes on the Houthis Mean for Yemen and the Region

Europe

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

South Africa

Turkey

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

France

Poland

Spain

Italy

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Palestinian Hamas militants are seen during a military show in Gaza City, Gaza, on July 20, 2017.

Without a central geography to anchor the group, there may be deepening rifts between Hamas' Doha-based politicians, its surviving militants in the West Bank and Gaza, and its fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

The Future of Hamas Without Gaza

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Netherlands

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

Science & Technology

Uttarakhand became India's first state to pass the Uniform Civil Code bill, paving the way for the establishment of unified common laws that will govern marriage, relationships and inheritance, Hindustan Times reported on Feb. 7.

India: Uttarakhand State Assembly Passes Uniform Civil Code

Lebanon

A $17.6 billion bill for Israeli military aid failed to pass in the U.S. House of Representatives with a two-thirds majority to meet the requirements of the expedited procedure, Reuters reported on Feb. 6.

U.S., Israel: $17.6B Military Aid Bill for Israel Fails To Pass House of Representatives

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed downplayed recent tensions with Somalia by stressing the "friendship" between the two countries, but he warned third parties against fuelling a "proxy" conflict, Addis Standard reported on Feb. 6. 

Ethiopia: Abiy Downplays Tensions With Somalia, Reiterates Openness to Talks on Mega Dam 

Afghanistan

Energy

The Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company's oil extraction project in northern Afghanistan has increased Afghanistan's daily output of crude oil to more than 1,100 metric tons (around 9,300 barrels), Voice of America reported on Feb. 6. 

Afghanistan: Chinese Oil Extraction Project Boosts Crude Output, But Faces Challenges

After facing strong opposition in article-by-article votes, lawmakers from President Javier Milei's Freedom Advances party decided to pull the reforms from debate and sent the omnibus back to committee, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 6. 

Argentina: Omnibus Reforms Pulled From Lower House Debate

Philippines

Philippines Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. ordered the armed forces to increase the number of troops stationed on its northernmost, Taiwan-facing islands of Batanes, as well as enhance the islands' fortifications and construct more defense structures, Reuters reported Feb. 7.

Philippines: Manila to Bolster Military Presence Near Taiwan

The Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas countered Israel's proposal for a temporary cease-fire with a demand for a four-and-a-half-month truce that would see hostages freed over three stages and eventually end the war, The Times of Israel reported on Feb. 7.

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Offers Cease-Fire Counter-Proposal as Hostage Death Toll Rises

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia will not normalize diplomatic relations with Israel unless there is an independent Palestinian state using 1967 borders, the Israel-Hamas war ends, and all Israeli "occupation" forces withdraw from Gaza, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a Feb. 7 press release. 

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Maintains Demand for Palestinian Statehood Before Israeli Normalization

U.S. President Joe Biden penned a letter to Bangladesh's newly reelected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina confirming his dedication to collaborating on Bangladesh's economic objectives, cooperating on regional and global security, addressing climate change, and advancing their shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, The Daily Star reported on Feb. 5. 

Bangladesh: Biden Affirms Bangladesh-U.S. Relations in Letter to Hasina

Myanmar

Thailand

Thailand launched a new initiative aimed at bringing peace to Myanmar that involves engaging key stakeholders -- including combatant groups, China, India and the United States -- as well as "trusted" third parties such as Japan and Norway, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 6.

Thailand, Myanmar: Bangkok To Take Lead in Myanmar Peace Process

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Uttarakhand State Assembly Passes Uniform Civil Code

U.S., Israel: $17.6B Military Aid Bill for Israel Fails To Pass House of Representatives

Ethiopia: Abiy Downplays Tensions With Somalia, Reiterates Openness to Talks on Mega Dam

Afghanistan: Chinese Oil Extraction Project Boosts Crude Output, But Faces Challenges

Argentina: Omnibus Reforms Pulled From Lower House Debate

Philippines: Manila to Bolster Military Presence Near Taiwan

Israel, Gaza: Hamas Offers Cease-Fire Counter-Proposal as Hostage Death Toll Rises

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Maintains Demand for Palestinian Statehood Before Israeli Normalization

Bangladesh: Biden Affirms Bangladesh-U.S. Relations in Letter to Hasina

Thailand, Myanmar: Bangkok To Take Lead in Myanmar Peace Process

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