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Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Morocco

A researcher from the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA) examines crops in a cultivated field in Morocco on April 18, 2024.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Despite a temporary boost in crop yields from spring rainfall, Morocco's persistent drought and structural water shortages continue to threaten its agricultural sector, food security and economic stability ahead of the 2026 elections.

Rainfall Boosts Morocco's Crop Yields, But Long-Term Water Crisis Persists

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 31, 2025

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a press conference at the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 7, 2025. 

Global Trade

While most of Brazil's main exports are exempt, the additional U.S. tariffs -- along with Brazil's impending economic retaliation and the likely arrest of former President Bolsonaro -- will further strain bilateral ties.

The Implications of Trump's New Tariffs on Brazil

Cote d'Ivoire

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

Europe

A digital illustration shows a digital human head overlaying the EU flag.

Cyber

Growing internal and U.S. pressure will likely force Brussels to delay or amend its landmark AI law, fueling short-term regulatory uncertainty that could hinder the technology's development in Europe.

The Fate of the EU's Ambitious AI Act

Iran

Iraq

Turkey

Iraq and Turkey's flags together on a textile cloth fabric 

Energy

Military & Security

Turkey is repositioning itself in Iraq by replacing its security-heavy posture with a push for economic and energy integration, signaling Ankara's long-term ambitions to become a regional power broker as U.S. and Iranian influence wanes.

Turkey Shifts Iraq Strategy Amid Waning U.S. and Iranian Influence

China

Taiwan

A voter leaves a booth during voting for the recall election at a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 26, 2025. 

Its victory in the recall votes will embolden the opposition KMT to press on with controversial reforms and defense spending cuts, but it will also help prevent a near-term escalation of cross-strait tensions.

A Failed Recall Emboldens Taiwan's Opposition

The EU flag is seen on stacked cargo containers.

The framework deal avoids an escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs that would have strained both economies, but various unresolved issues could still reignite transatlantic trade tensions in the future.

New U.S.-EU Deal Averts Full-Blown Trade War -- For Now

Canada

Mexico

Cambodia

Japan

South Korea

Thailand

A Cambodian soldier stands on a truck with a rocket launcher in Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province, which borders Thailand, on July 25, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. Tariff Deadline Passes, Thai-Cambodian Border Tensions Persist

U.S.-China Relations

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks during a luncheon at Parliament House in Canberra on June 17, 2024. 

The Australian prime minister's efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing will yield short-term economic benefits, but rising regional security concerns will ultimately limit long-term engagement.

The Challenges Facing Albanese's Bid to Reset China-Australia Relations

A ''Danger'' sign warns visitors about a fragile structure within the grounds of the Preah Vihear temple in Cambodia.

Border clashes will likely persist and could escalate if Cambodia later tries to seize disputed territory, but a full-scale war remains unlikely in the short term.

Deadly Clashes Sharply Escalate Thai-Cambodian Border Dispute

Latest

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (center) speaks during a press conference next to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet (left) and Thailand's acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai (right) in Putrajaya, Malaysia, on July 28, 2025. 

While the truce may hold in the short to medium term, unresolved disputes and political pressures sustain the risk of future clashes, with the next round likely to be even deadlier.

Gauging the Stability of the Thailand-Cambodia Ceasefire

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

Maldives

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Egypt

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly (center right) meets with Chinese Premier Li Qiang (center left) in Cairo on July 10, 2025.

In the coming years, Egypt will deepen its economic ties with China via increased trade and investment, while simultaneously maintaining its military alliance with the U.S. to address regional security concerns.

Egypt Navigates Its Needs for Chinese Investment and U.S. Military Support

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

Columns

On Geopolitics

Lithuania

Germany

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Poland

Norway

Ukraine

Belarus

Russia

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Israel

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of adjusted tariffs on dozens of countries late on July 31, prior to an Aug. 1 tariff deadline, included dropping the tariff on Taiwan from a threatened 32% rate to 20%, The South China Morning Post reported on Aug. 1.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order on July 31 raising tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, with tariffs taking effect Aug. 1, according to a White House fact sheet published on July 31.

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The Trump administration announced new tariffs for Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan that will take effect on Aug. 7, Reuters reported on Aug. 1.

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan: Trump Announces Reduced Tariff Rates

Malaysia

The United States will impose a 19% tariff rate on Malaysia (down from the threatened 25%), Thailand and Cambodia (both down from 36%) on Aug. 7, Channel News Asia reported on Aug. 1.

Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia: Countries All Receive 19% U.S. Tariff Rate

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda held the first meeting of the Joint Oversight Committee laid out in their June 27 peace agreement, Reuters reported on July 31.

Congo, Rwanda: Governments Hold First Meeting of Joint Oversight Committee 

Tanzania

Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan on July 30 inaugurated the country's first uranium processing pilot plant at the Mkuju River uranium project in Namtumbo district, Ruvuma region, The Chanzo reported on July 31.

Tanzania, Russia: Governments Launch $1.2B Uranium Project in Southern Tanzania

South Africa

The United States is planning to impose 30% “reciprocal” tariffs on South Africa from Aug. 7 following Pretoria’s failure to reach a trade deal by Aug. 1, Reuters reported on Aug. 1.

South Africa: Trump Administration To Slap 30% Tariffs on South African Exports

Science & Technology

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Switzerland

The United States imposed a 39% baseline tariff on imports from Switzerland, above the 31% rate previously floated in April and representing one of the highest levels imposed by the United States on any country, Reuters reported on July 31.

Switzerland, U.S.: U.S. To Impose 39% Baseline Tariff Rate on Swiss Exports

El Salvador

Social Issues

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly approved a constitutional reform that allows the president -- currently Nayib Bukele -- to be reelected indefinitely, Reuters reported on July 31.

El Salvador: Bukele Consolidates Power as Legislative Assembly Removes Presidential Term Limits

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a new law reestablishing the institutional independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, reversing amendments adopted on July 22 that had placed both bodies under the prosecutor general's control, The Washington Post reported on July 31. 

Ukraine: Zelensky Signs Anti-Graft Law Amendments, Restores Anti-Corruption Agencies' Independence

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan, U.S.: Taiwan Says U.S. 20% Tariff Is 'Provisional,' Still Seeking Deal

U.S., Canada: U.S. Raises Tariffs on Canadian Goods to 35%

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan: Trump Announces Reduced Tariff Rates

Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia: Countries All Receive 19% U.S. Tariff Rate

Congo, Rwanda: Governments Hold First Meeting of Joint Oversight Committee

Tanzania, Russia: Governments Launch $1.2B Uranium Project in Southern Tanzania

South Africa: Trump Administration To Slap 30% Tariffs on South African Exports

Switzerland, U.S.: U.S. To Impose 39% Baseline Tariff Rate on Swiss Exports

El Salvador: Bukele Consolidates Power as Legislative Assembly Removes Presidential Term Limits

Ukraine: Zelensky Signs Anti-Graft Law Amendments, Restores Anti-Corruption Agencies' Independence

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