Media

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

France

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

Military & Security

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Assessments

China

An installation for China’s Belt and Road Forum is seen in Beijing on Oct. 16, 2023. 

Economics

Energy

Politics

The third BRI forum will offer a glimpse into the geographic and industrial focus of Beijing's overseas engagements, as well as China's efforts to bolster its economy and compete with the West.

What to Watch for During China's Belt and Road Summit

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Poland

Posters for parliamentary candidates ahead of Poland's Oct. 10, 2023, election in Lodz, Poland.

A new centrist government would significantly improve relations with the European Union, allowing the country to continue playing an increasingly central role in the bloc.

Parliamentary Elections May Move Poland Closer to Brussels

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

Ecuador

Israel

Palestinian Territories

New Zealand

Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

A digital illustration shows the logo of the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

Cyber

The deluge of false content on X (formerly Twitter) suggests threat actors will be able to easily exploit the social media platform to skew public opinion ahead of major upcoming elections around the world.

X's Struggle to Contain Israel-Gaza Disinformation Bodes Ill for Its Election Preparedness

Argentina

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

Podcasts

Will the Israel-Hamas conflict be contained?

Essential Geopolitics: The Implications of Hamas' Attack on Israel

A photo illustration shows the U.S. and Israeli flags.

Once the current Gaza war is over, bilateral tensions will grow as the U.S. pressures Israel to reduce the risk of future conflicts that could drag America back into the Middle East.

The U.S. Throws Its Support Behind Israel, Saving Its Scrutiny for After the War

Ecuadorean presidential candidate Daniel Noboa (center) gives a thumbs up as he rides on top of a truck during a campaign caravan in Quito, Ecuador, on Oct. 11, 2023. 

The Oct. 15 presidential run-off could end years of political deadlock, but the country's security and economic challenges will almost certainly persist regardless of the outcome.

The Challenges That Await Ecuador's Next President

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

Latest

Electoral material is pictured at a polling station during primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Aug. 13, 2023.

Regardless of which candidate wins Argentina's presidential election, inflation is set to rise.

What to Expect After Argentina's Presidential Election

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a meeting in Beijing on Oct. 13, 2023. 

The bloc's increased scrutiny on trade and investments with China will raise the cost of doing business for European firms, but it won't upend its relations with Beijing.

How Will the EU's De-Risking Strategy Toward China Evolve?

Iran

Lebanon

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian holds a press conference at the Iranian embassy in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on Oct. 14, 2023. 

Iran's recent warnings indicate a growing risk of the conflict expanding beyond its current geographic scope, with Tehran able to use multiple mechanisms to attack Israel and the West.

Iran Threatens to Join the Gaza War, Fueling Fears of an Expanded Conflict

Sub-Saharan Africa

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Gabon

Russia

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Egypt

Smoke billows Oct. 10, 2023, from the Gaza Strip's Rafah border crossing with Egypt during an Israeli airstrike. Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

How the Gaza War Will Impact Egyptian Politics

Damage caused by Israeli airstrikes Oct. 7, 2023, in Gaza City, Gaza, in response to a Hamas-led incursion into Israel. A large-scale Hamas attack threatens to significantly escalate conflict between Israel and the militant groups. 

Violence could spread from Gaza to the West Bank, and attacks from Lebanon and unrest within Israel proper are also possible.

How the Hamas Surprise Attack From Gaza on Israel Could Play Out

A stock photo shows a map of China on digital display.

To comply with Beijing's strict data rules, large multinational companies are insulating their Chinese business from their global operations -- something smaller firms will struggle to do.

In China, Growing Oversight Prompts Foreign Firms to Silo Their Operations

Liberia

A campaign poster for Liberian President George Weah is seen above a street in Monrovia, Liberia, on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The Oct. 10 vote will open the door to fraud allegations and a potential presidential runoff that could spark a resumption of election-related violence in the small West African country.

Previewing Liberia's General Election

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) talks to reporters following the weekly Senate Democratic policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 28, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The myriad constraints on deeper U.S.-China cooperation mean the trip is unlikely to yield tangible results, beyond reopening an avenue for dialogue that COVID-19 had largely closed. 

Setting Expectations for the First U.S. Congressional Visit to China in Years

Slovakia

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico waits to meet the country's president in Bratislava on Oct. 2, 2023, following his Smer party's victory in Slovakia's Sept. 30 snap election. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Upcoming coalition talks will likely yield a more Eurosceptic government that could reduce the country's political and military aid to Kyiv.

What Slovakia's Election Results Mean for Its Political Future and Support for Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Turkey

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Iraq

The U.S. military intercepted two drones en route to a suspected attack on U.S. forces at Iraq's Ain al-Asad airbase, Reuters reported on Oct. 18, citing two unnamed U.S. officials.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Intercepts Two Drones Before Attack on Airbase in Iraq

The Biden administration placed new restrictions on China's access to advanced semiconductors and chipmaking gear, Reuters reported on Oct. 17.

U.S., China: U.S. Expands Restrictions on China's Semiconductor Sector

Venezuela

Venezuela's National Assembly announced on Oct. 17 that the government and the opposition Unitary Platform signed an agreement on political guarantees for holding freer elections in 2024.

Venezuela: Government, Opposition Sign Election Agreements as U.S. Prepares Sanctions Relief

For the first time, Ukraine used U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, to strike Russian forces in Ukraine, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 17.

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Uses ATACMS in Strike on Berdyansk Airport

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 12, 2023

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Japan

Polls showed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approval rating hit a record low of 29% in October, and his disapproval rate hit 60%, the highest of any prime minister since December 2012, The Asahi Shimbun reported on Oct. 16.

Japan: Kishida's Hopes of a Snap Election Ebb as Personal, Party Support Withers

Federated States of Micronesia

Marshall Islands

Palau

The United States and the Marshall Islands renewed their Compact of Free Association on Oct. 16, Reuters reported the next day.

U.S., Marshall Islands: Third and Final COFA Signed, Waiting on Congressional Ratification

Jordan

U.S. President Joe Biden plans to visit Tel Aviv, Israel, on Oct. 18 to show solidarity for wartime Israel and will hear military plans for the operations in Gaza, including possible asks for military support from the United States, The Times of Israel reported on Oct. 17.

U.S., Israel: Biden to Visit Israel in Show of Wartime Support

China's central bank ordered major state-owned banks to extend loan maturities and reduce interest rates on loans to local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in 12 "high risk" regions the week of Oct. 9, Reuters reported on Oct. 17.

China: Beijing Orders Banks to Extend Debt Lifeline to Local Governments

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the leader of Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas, political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, discussed the ongoing Israel-Gaza war and the release of hostages in a call on Oct. 16, Al-Monitor reported the same day.

Turkey: Ankara Tries to Negotiate Release of Hostages, Support for Gazans

Christopher Luxon of New Zealand's center-right National Party appears to be New Zealand's next prime minister, leading a slim parliamentary majority of 61 out of 121 seats thanks to a partnership with the libertarian-right ACT Party, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

New Zealand: The Center-Right Take Center Stage in the Post-Ardern Era

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

What to Expect After Argentina's Presidential Election

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Intercepts Two Drones Before Attack on Airbase in Iraq

U.S., China: U.S. Expands Restrictions on China's Semiconductor Sector

Venezuela: Government, Opposition Sign Election Agreements as U.S. Prepares Sanctions Relief

Ukraine, Russia: Kyiv Uses ATACMS in Strike on Berdyansk Airport

Japan: Kishida's Hopes of a Snap Election Ebb as Personal, Party Support Withers

U.S., Marshall Islands: Third and Final COFA Signed, Waiting on Congressional Ratification

U.S., Israel: Biden to Visit Israel in Show of Wartime Support

China: Beijing Orders Banks to Extend Debt Lifeline to Local Governments

Turkey: Ankara Tries to Negotiate Release of Hostages, Support for Gazans

New Zealand: The Center-Right Take Center Stage in the Post-Ardern Era

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