Assessments

Mexico

United States

Japan

Austria

Supporters of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) wave flags during an election rally in Vienna, Austria, on Sept. 27, 2024. 

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Austrian Elections and a U.S. Port Workers Strike

Media

Podcasts

What key factors are informing the outcome of the elections?

Essential Geopolitics: What to Expect from Japan's Leadership Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Chile

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Chile's rising water stress threatens agriculture and mining, but desalination efforts offer hope for mitigating severe impacts.

Water Stress in Chile Threatens Agriculture and Mining

Snapshots

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

Canada

The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

The prospect alone of early elections will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year.

Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

Israel

Lebanon

A man in Beirut, Lebanon, holds a walkie-talkie after removing its battery on Sept. 18, 2024, during a funeral for people killed when hundreds of paging devices exploded across the country the previous day. 

Military & Security

Few security services are willing and able to replicate Israel's unprecedented assault on Hezbollah's electronics, but many will find ways to tamper with devices for mass surveillance by exploiting complex global supply chains.

Israel's Pager Attack Renews Focus on Supply Chains' Physical Security

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 26, 2024

Mozambique

Rwandan troops guard an LNG project in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province on Sept. 29, 2022. 

Energy

The resurgence of the Islamic State Mozambique insurgency in Cabo Delgado portends more potentially destabilizing attacks that could deter investment in the resource-rich region.

The Future of Counterterrorism Efforts in Northern Mozambique

A pedestrian walks past a billboard with an election poster for Harald Vilimsky, the top candidate of Austria's right-wing Freedom Party in the June European Parliament elections, on May 13, 2024. 

Austria's far-right Freedom Party is projected to win the country's upcoming general election, likely leading to a coalition government that could make waves in the European Union.

What a Far-Right Electoral Win Would Mean for Austria

Global Elections

Social Issues

House and Senate elections will help decide whether the next president will need to rely largely on executive power to implement policy, shaping his or domestic policy.

2024 Elections: The United States

Sri Lanka

Anura Kumara Dissanayake (center) gestures as he leaves the office of Sri Lanka's Election Commission in Colombo on Sept. 22, 2024, following his victory in the country's presidential election. 

President Dissanayake's left-wing agenda will run up against IMF commitments and an opposition-controlled parliament, raising the risk of a snap ballot that could reshape the island nation's political landscape.

What Challenges Lay Ahead for Sri Lanka's New President?

Latest

Iran

Smoke rises from rubble at the scene of Israeli air strikes in the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept. 27, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israel's expanding assassination campaign will compel Hezbollah to escalate its cross-border attacks and could eventually force Iran to intervene to protect its most reliable proxy.

Israel Goes After Hezbollah's Top Leader, Leaving Little Room for Deescalation

Ukraine

Russia

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

Smoke billows from a site targeted by an Israeli shelling in the southern Lebanese village of Zaita on Sept. 23, 2024. 

With the erosion of the rules of engagement established after their 2006 war, both sides will likely fight an open-ended conflict without red lines until an eventual settlement, or an Israeli ground operation.

What To Watch For as Israel and Hezbollah Enter Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Syria

Lebanese soldiers stand guard as an ambulance rushes wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on Sept. 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.

A widespread pager attack against Hezbollah raises tensions between Israel and Lebanon as their border conflict expands.

All Eyes Turn to Israel Following Hezbollah Pager Explosions Across Lebanon and Syria

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Sub-Saharan Africa

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Columns

On Geopolitics

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Germany

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Iraq

The United States announced the U.S.-led coalition's military mission in Iraq would conclude by the end of 2025 as the first part of a two-phase transition, though it was not called a "full withdrawal," AP reported on Sept. 27.

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Former Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba won the election to become the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which means he will become the next prime minister on Oct. 1, Reuters reported on Sept. 27.

Japan: Incoming PM Ishiba Will Deepen Western Security Ties

In response to an article published in Politico on Sept. 26, TotalEnergies stated it was unaware of the alleged murders committed in 2021 by Mozambican soldiers near the company’s Afungi liquefied natural gas, or LNG, site, according to a statement published on its website on the same day.

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Refutes Claims of Awareness Regarding Alleged Torture and Killings at LNG Site

Maldives

India

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu is set to visit India from Oct. 7-9, where he will meet with Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Hindustan Times reported on Sept. 27.

Maldives, India: Maldivian President To Visit India in October

Science & Technology

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's military launched operations against the radical Hutu Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda group, or FDLR, on Sept. 23, Jeune Afrique reported on Sept. 27.

Congo: Military Begins Operations Against FDLR, Targets Allied Wazalendo Militia

Senegal

Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko accused former President Macky Sall's government of hiding the extent of Senegal's fiscal deficit, which he said averaged 10.4% of GDP in 2019-2024 rather than 5.5% as previously reported, Radio France Internationale reported Sept. 26.

Senegal: Sonko Accuses Sall of Concealing Deficit, Pledges to Redress Public Finances

Taiwan

One of China's newest models of nuclear-powered Zhou-class submarines appears to have sunk at a shipyard in Wuhan sometime in late May or early June, according to satellite imagery and reporting by The Wall Street Journal on Sept. 26.

China: Another Apparent Nuclear-Powered Sub Incident Highlights Taiwan Difficulties

Myanmar

The Myanmar junta urged resistance groups to abandon their war effort and sign on to elections that the military government is planning to end the conflict, Reuters reported on Sept. 26.

Myanmar: Junta Extends First Olive Branch to Resistance

Cambodia

Laos

Vietnam

Cambodia is withdrawing from the 1999 Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle, Prime Minister Hun Manet announced, citing public order concerns and conceding to protesters he described as "extremists," the South China Morning Post reported on Sept. 25.

Cambodia: Pullout From Development Pact Risks Harming Relations With Neighbors

Japanese naval destroyer JS Sazanami conducted the country's first military transit through the Taiwan Strait, accompanied by an unspecified number of Australian and New Zealand navy ships, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on Sept. 26.

Japan: Kishida Greenlights First Taiwan Strait Transit Over Chinese Incursions

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Forecast

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iraq: U.S. Announces End to U.S.-Led Coalition's Iraq Mission in 2025

Japan: Incoming PM Ishiba Will Deepen Western Security Ties

Mozambique: TotalEnergies Refutes Claims of Awareness Regarding Alleged Torture and Killings at LNG Site

Maldives, India: Maldivian President To Visit India in October

Congo: Military Begins Operations Against FDLR, Targets Allied Wazalendo Militia

Senegal: Sonko Accuses Sall of Concealing Deficit, Pledges to Redress Public Finances

China: Another Apparent Nuclear-Powered Sub Incident Highlights Taiwan Difficulties

Myanmar: Junta Extends First Olive Branch to Resistance

Cambodia: Pullout From Development Pact Risks Harming Relations With Neighbors

Japan: Kishida Greenlights First Taiwan Strait Transit Over Chinese Incursions

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support