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Iran

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Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Will the United States continue to pay the "blood and treasure" tax to subsidize global energy security, or is the Hormuz war the catalyst for a fundamental retrenchment?

The Decision Advantage: What the Hormuz War Means for U.S. Grand Strategy

U.S.-Iran Relations

Assessments

Peru

Israel

Lebanon

China

North Korea

Armenia

Russia

A banner depicting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 3 in Tehran. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Armenian Elections, Xi Goes to North Korea

Taiwan

How has U.S. grand strategy in the Pacific changed over time?

The Decision Advantage: Taiwan Arms Sales and the U.S.-China Trade War

U.S.-China Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Smoke rises following Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon as seen from a position across the border in the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on May 31, 2026.

Should Israel-Lebanon talks stall, the U.S. would be more likely to greenlight a broader campaign against Hezbollah, though it could also pressure Israel into a more comprehensive truce if Trump deems it necessary for an Iran deal.

U.S. Mediation Unlikely To Lead to Lasting Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

Australia

Fiji

Japan

India

(From left to right) Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hold a joint press conference after their Quad meeting in New Delhi on May 26, 2026.

Economics

The meeting proved the grouping is still functional, but it faces strong constraints in turning ambitious coordination frameworks into functional maritime, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy initiatives that blunt Chinese regional influence.

Takeaways From Quad Summit: New Initiatives, Enduring Constraints and Future Uncertainty

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Guests stand outside a model carriage of the "Dream of the Desert" ultra-luxury train on display during the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 28, 2025.

Efforts to create new export routes via railways and pipelines will be hampered by regional mistrust, uncertain commercial viability and long construction timelines, ultimately keeping Gulf states reliant on the Strait of Hormuz.

All Roads Lead to Hormuz: The Limits of Gulf Infrastructure Diversification

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 4, 2026

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (right) addresses journalists next to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent following a new round of trade discussions with Chinese officials at the OECD headquarters in Paris on March 16, 2026.

The scope of the Section 301 levies and the rapid investigations underpinning them portend more legal challenges, but this will not deter the White House from continuing its broader push to more sustainably implement its global tariff regime.

Trump Tries Again To Impose Sweeping Global Tariffs

Europe

Switzerland

Citizens vote by raising their hands during the Landsgemeinde, a traditional public, non-secret ballot conducted by majority rule, in Appenzell, eastern Switzerland, on April 26.

Global Trade

If approved, the cap on the permanent resident population would compel Swiss companies to accelerate capital investment and automation initiatives to offset reduced EU migration.


Swiss Population Referendum Threatens Growth and EU Relations

Azerbaijan

Thousands of Armenians participate in a rally in Yerevan's Republic Square on May 26, 2024. 

Prime Minister Pashinyan's likely reelection will empower him to finalize a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and deepen ties with the West, though Russian economic pressure and domestic opposition to constitutional changes could undermine these efforts.

What's at Stake in Armenia's Upcoming Election

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mali

Mozambique

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

Latest

Ukraine

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Uganda

Red Cross volunteers wearing personal protective equipment lower the body of an Ebola victim into a casket at a health center in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo, on June 8, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

The escalating outbreak will likely persist for several more months, likely disrupting regional supply chains, mining investments in Congo and potentially Uganda's start of oil production.

Ebola Makes Deadly Comeback in Congo

People pass by a building in Ramat Gan, Israel, that was destroyed by an Iranian ballistic missile on May 5, 2026. 

Recent direct strikes between Israel and Iran did not immediately collapse the regional truce, but recurrent tit-for-tat escalations would reduce the chance of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Iran-Israel Escalation Threatens Negotiations To End Iran War

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) gestures to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before a military parade in Beijing's Tiananmen Square on Sept. 3, 2025. 

North Korea's growing relations with Russia and potential reengagement with the U.S. appear to be driving China to pursue a rapprochement after years of diplomatic inaction.

Xi-Kim Summit Signals a Thaw in Long-Frozen Ties Between China and North Korea

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Philippines

Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

A fireball and smoke erupt from a building following an Israeli strike in Tyre, southern Lebanon, on May 28.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The recent expansion of Israeli operations in southern Lebanon demonstrates an effort to degrade Hezbollah's capabilities prior to any finalized de-escalation agreements between the United States and Iran.


The Strategic Implications of Israel's Expanded Lebanon Campaign

Columns

On Geopolitics

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

U.S. President Donald Trump said late on June 8 that the United States was in the "final throes" of a deal with Iran that could be signed within a few days, Al Jazeera reported on June 9.

U.S., Iran: Indirect Negotiations Continue, No Concessions Announced

Indonesia

Indonesia's parliament unanimously amended the country's national police law to allow active duty officers to serve in civilian ministries and state agencies without first resigning from the police force, Reuters reported on June 9.

Indonesia: Jakarta Expands Police Role in Civilian Government

South Africa

Anti-immigration activists in South Africa rejected the government's June 7 pledges to crack down on illegal immigration as insufficient and held broadly peaceful protests in Ekurhuleni, during which they warned businesses across the country to end the employment of all foreign nationals by June 30, Daily Maverick reported on June 8.

South Africa: Anti-Immigration Activists Reject Ramaphosa's Pledge To Crack Down on Illegal Immigration

Kuwait Petroleum Corp. is offering a tender of 4 million barrels of oil -- two very large crude carriers worth -- to Asian refiners, Kuwait's first such tender since Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran began in February, Bloomberg reported on June 9.

Kuwait: Kuwait Offers First Oil Tender Since the Iran War Began

Science & Technology

Hundreds of people gathered on June 6 in New Delhi, India, after police authorized the first in-person protest of the "Cockroach Janta Party" online youth group at the Jantar Mantar demonstration site, demanding the education minister resign amid recent scandals linked to school exams, Hindustan Times reported on June 7.

India: Youth Group Draws Hundreds in First Protest, Issues Ultimatum for Education Minister's Resignation

Armenia's Central Election Commission said Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party won 49.8% of the vote in the June 7 parliamentary election, giving it a projected 64 of 101 base parliamentary seats under the D'Hondt apportionment method, Armenpress reported on June 8.

Armenia: Pashinyan Wins Election but Falls Short of Constitutional Majority

Hong Kong SAR, China

Hong Kong's Security Bureau and Department of Justice proposed a bill to the legislature that would allow Chief Executive John Lee to declare any criminal case a national security case, which would allow the case to be tried in Hong Kong's handpicked national security courts, AP reported on June 8.

Hong Kong: Leader To Define National Security Crimes, Portending Legal Risks

A window view from Turkey's Eastern Express train. 

Improved relations could unlock strategic and economic benefits for both countries, especially if their border is reopened, though Russia's entrenched influence in Armenia remains a key constraint.

Russian Coercion Will Constrain Budding Turkey-Armenia Rapprochement

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 8, Xinhua News Agency reported the same day. 

China, North Korea: Xi Talks Diplomacy, Development With Kim, Avoids Nukes

Electoral authorities have counted 93.5% of the votes cast in Peru's June 7 runoff presidential election, with right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori receiving 50.03% and leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez receiving 49.97%, Reuters reported the same day.

Peru: Runoff Vote Count To Be Lengthy Amid Tight Race

The 2026-30 budget for Saudi Arabia's Neom city megaproject includes 60 billion riyals ($16 billion) in penalty payments to terminate long-term contractor agreements, Semafor reported on June 7.

Saudi Arabia: Neom Megaproject Cuts Incur Penalty Payments

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: Indirect Negotiations Continue, No Concessions Announced

Indonesia: Jakarta Expands Police Role in Civilian Government

South Africa: Anti-Immigration Activists Reject Ramaphosa's Pledge To Crack Down on Illegal Immigration

Kuwait: Kuwait Offers First Oil Tender Since the Iran War Began

India: Youth Group Draws Hundreds in First Protest, Issues Ultimatum for Education Minister's Resignation

Armenia: Pashinyan Wins Election but Falls Short of Constitutional Majority

Hong Kong: Leader To Define National Security Crimes, Portending Legal Risks

China, North Korea: Xi Talks Diplomacy, Development With Kim, Avoids Nukes

Peru: Runoff Vote Count To Be Lengthy Amid Tight Race

Saudi Arabia: Neom Megaproject Cuts Incur Penalty Payments

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