Assessments

Niger

Brazil

Saudi Arabia

Ukraine

Russia

Pakistan

Deforestation in the Amazon rainforest. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a summit on the Amazon on Aug. 7-8 in an effort to draft a common policy for the first time ever for countries with territory in the Amazon rainforest.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia, Brazil Hosts an Amazon Summit

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 3, 2023

Poland

Polish President Andrzej Duda speaks during a press conference in April 14, 2023. 

Politics

To gin up support, the nationalist government will pursue more hawkish policies on issues ranging from migration to Ukrainian food imports, raising the risk of additional EU sanctions.

In Poland, Political Tensions Rise Ahead of Elections

Media

Podcasts

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

How is EnergyX innovating the lithium production process?

RANE Insights: EnergyX -- A New Approach to Lithium

Europe

(L-R) Saxony Premier Michael Kretschmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz hold semiconductor wafers as Infineon CEO Jochen Hanebeck (second from right) looks on during a ground-breaking ceremony for a new semiconductor factory in Dresden, Germany, on May 2, 2023. 

The EU is unlikely to build a self-reliant semiconductor sector, but its attempts to do so will help bolster its resilience against supply shocks in case a crisis in Asia takes Taiwan's chips offline.

What Stands in the Way of the EU's Chipmaking Dreams

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who also serves as the chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), participates in an emergency ECOWAS meeting on July 30, 2023, following the recent coup in Niger.

Military & Security

Despite its leaders' desire to set a precedent against military takeovers, the 15-nation African bloc will struggle to follow through on its threat to forcefully remove Niger's new junta. 

Gauging the Likelihood of a Post-Coup ECOWAS Intervention in Niger

Snapshots

Germany

German flags are seen waving in front of the country’s parliament building in Berlin, Germany.

Economics

While aimed at fostering greater competition, the government's proposed bill could inject more uncertainty into the business climate by fueling fears of bureaucratic overreach.

Germany Seeks To Give Its Antitrust Regulator More Power

Colombia

Lebanon

China

A demonstration July 27, 2022, in Niamey, Niger, after a coup. The Economic Community of West African States is expected to discuss the July 26 coup in Niger next week, with French officials saying an extraordinary summit could occur July 30.

The Weekly Rundown: ECOWAS Considers Its Response to Niger, Drama at Lebanon's Central Bank Deepens

Turkey

Cyprus

The flags of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (L) and the Republic of Cyprus (R) are divided by a crack.

Despite Turkey-EU rapprochement, Cypriot reunification remains unlikely, but economic deals may still move forward.

Despite EU-Turkey Rapprochement, Cypriot Reunification Remains Out of Reach

How is forensic psychiatry used for geopolitical analysis?


Applied Geopolitics: The Role of Leadership Analysis in Geopolitics

Is the recent rise in COVID-19 cases a cause for concern?

Beyond COVID: The Implications of the Recent Rise in COVID-19 Cases

Latest

Japan

The Tokyo Skytree (right) and Mount Fuji (back left) are seen from the I-Link Town observatory in Ichikawa city, Chiba prefecture, east of Tokyo, Japan, on July 2, 2023.

Barring a change of government or an economic downturn, Tokyo appears set to keep wielding trade restrictions in response to Beijing's own economic coercion tactics and threatening military activities.

Will Japan Sustain Its Economic Restrictions on China?

U.S.-China Relations

Colombian President Gustavo Petro delivers a speech in Congress in Bogota, Colombia, on July 20, 2023. 

Even if Petro manages to stay in power, his son’s money laundering charges could reduce support for his administration’s reform agenda and ongoing peace talks with guerrilla groups.

A Campaign Finance Scandal Threatens Colombia's President

Romania

Belarus

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

Argentina

Paraguay

Uruguay

Leaders of the summit between the European Union and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) walk for a press conference on July 18, 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. From left to right are European Council President Charles Michel, Argentine President Alberto Fernandez, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, who is also the current president of CELAC.

A summit revives talks over an EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, but political constraints and protectionism stand in the way of a final deal.

The Obstacles Facing an EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

France

Nigeriens gather to show their support for President Mohamed Bazoum in Niamey, Niger, on July 26, 2023, after he was detained by guards earlier in the day. 

A successful military takeover of the civilian government could weaken Niger's ties with France and enable jihadists and countries like Russia to expand their influence in the country.

In Niger, President Bazoum's Detainment Fuels Fears of Another West African Coup

French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne (front, left) meets with members of the government's newly reshuffled cabinet at a hotel in Paris, France, on July 24, 2023. 

The reshuffled government will prioritize rebuilding the infrastructure destroyed in the recent riots, but a controversial immigration reform could spur more political turmoil later this year.

What To Make of France's Latest Cabinet Shake-Up

Spain

The leader of Spain's center-right People's Party, Alberto Nunez Feijoo (center), and other top party officials answer questions during a post-election press conference in Madrid on July 24, 2023.

Catalan and Basque parties will be the kingmaker in likely lengthy coalition talks that could result in a revote, prolonging political uncertainty and policymaking paralysis.

An Inconclusive Election Leaves Spain's Government in Limbo

Columns

On Geopolitics

A Ukrainian artilleryman fires a 152 mm towed gun-howitzer D-20 at Russian positions near Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, on July 20, 2023. 

The West's failure to provide Kyiv with more robust support and Ukraine's failure to retake enough territory to destabilize Russia’s government indicate that time is less on Kyiv’s side now than it was a year ago.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Updating Our Analysis, One Year On

Nigeria

A busy street is seen in Lagos, Nigeria. 

Social Issues

The Nigerian state is unprepared to handle the impending population boom, which will likely spur massive overpopulation and underdevelopment in urban centers and inflame regional divides.

Africa's Population Boom: Nigeria

On Security

A protester holds a sign reading "I'm an eco-terrorised" during a rally to support the environmental movement Les Soulevements de la Terre (Uprisings of the Earth) near city hall in Paris, France, on June 21, 2023.

Eco-terrorism may rise alongside global temperatures, but it will face numerous constraints that limit its effectiveness.

Envisioning a New Eco-Terrorist Movement

Wagner mercenaries stand on the balcony of a building in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on June 24, 2023. 

While mercenaries' role in modern warfare may be shrinking, they will remain a key asset in conflicts that are important to the state but less so for the citizen.

Why the Wagner Revolt Won't Deter States From Deploying Mercenaries

An elderly man and woman are pushed in wheelchairs along a street in Beijing, China, on May 11, 2021.

External factors and geopolitics will further complicate the issues raised by China's demographic decline, particularly as the United States restricts emerging technologies critical to desired economic growth.

How Geopolitical Challenges Complicate China's Demographic Future

Protesters run from launched tear gas canisters during clashes with police in Marseille, southern France, on July 1, 2023, after a fourth consecutive night of rioting over the killing of a teenager by police. 

Grassroots protests, like those recently seen in France, often develop like a fire -- emerging from some tinder, sparked by a catalyst incident and then growing into a flame before eventually dying out.

Reflecting on the Riots in France: Why Some Protests Turn Violent

Austria

The director of Austria's intelligence agency (left) and the president of Vienna's state police hold a press conference on a foiled Vienna pride parade attack on June 18, 2023. 

The latest disruption in Vienna shows that Western counterterrorism personnel remain vigilant, but a loss of focus over time will lead to gaps that terrorists may exploit in the future.

What the Foiled Vienna Pride Parade Plot Suggests About the Islamist Threat to the West

Italy

Silvio Berlusconi leaves a polling station after voting in Italy's September 2022 snap election. The former prime minister died on June 12, 2023, at the age of 86.

The death of Italy's longest-serving prime minister marks the end of an era. But Berlusconi's legacy will live on through his enduring impact on Italian and European politics.

The Complex Legacy of Italy's Silvio Berlusconi

Senior officials from 42 countries attended an Aug. 5-6 summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to discuss peace frameworks for the Russia-Ukraine war, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6.

Ukraine: Attendees Describe Jeddah Talks as Productive, Hint at Future Discussions

Senegal

Senegalese opposition leader Ousmane Sonko was admitted to a hospital in the capital Dakar after a week on a hunger strike, Africanews reported on Aug. 6.

Senegal: Opposition Leader Admitted to Hospital After Hunger Strike

Following the expiration of the Economic Community of West African States' (ECOWAS) deadline for the Nigerien junta to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, the regional bloc announced that it will hold a new extraordinary summit on the political situation in Niger, Reuters reported on Aug. 7.

Niger: ECOWAS Announces Summit on Niger on Aug. 10

A Ukrainian naval drone struck a Russian tanker likely carrying fuel to Syria on Aug. 4, and Kyiv announced shortly afterward that it will consider six Russian Black Sea ports zones of military threat, Meduza reported on Aug. 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Declares Russian Black Sea Ports Zones of Military Threat After Striking Tanker

Philippines

The Philippines is lodging a formal diplomatic complaint against China over Chinese vessels' Aug. 5 deployment of water cannons against a Philippine resupply mission to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, The Manila Times reported on Aug. 7.

China, Philippines: Beijing Maintains Maritime 'Grey Zone' Tactics While U.S. Stands By

Iraq

Iraq's Oil Ministry and representatives from the semi-autonomous Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) agreed on Aug. 5 to establish a committee that will draft a joint hydrocarbon law, Rudaw Media Network reported the next day.

Iraq: Federal Government, Kurdistan Agree to Draft New Federal Oil Law

Sudan

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

An aerial view taken Oct. 29, 2022, of Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

Saudi-UAE tensions will intensify economic, diplomatic and defense competition, with implications for business operations in both and for security in countries like Sudan and Yemen.

The Saudi-UAE Regional Rivalry Intensifies

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 27, 2023

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center left, wearing a red tie) and his newly appointed cabinet members visit the Anıtkabir memorial site in Ankara, Turkey, on June 6, 2023.

To cement his legacy, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in Russia and Israel's footsteps by expanding Turkey's territory in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria and Cyprus.

A Final Term for Turkey's Erdogan in the Age of Annexation

A Tibetan Buddhist woman stands on a hill overlooking the Labrang Monastery on March 2, 2018, in Gansu, China, the country's poorest province.

While eastern cities like Beijing may individually escape the middle-income trap, China's interior risks being left behind, which could impede the country's ability to overcome its demographic decline.

China's Geographic Divides Will Compound Its Demographic Challenge

Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny was sentenced to 19 years in a "special regime" penal colony on charges of extremism, adding onto his 11.5 year term at a maximum security facility on a variety of charges, AP News reported on Aug. 4.

Russia: Navalny Sentenced to 19 Years in Prison

Ukrainian naval drones attacked Russia's Black Sea naval base at the Novorossiysk port, damaging a large Russian naval vessel sufficiently to render it unable to carry out combat missions, Reuters reported on Aug. 4.

Russia, Ukraine: Kyiv Strikes Russian Naval Base on Black Sea

The United States and China are considering forming up to three working groups to discuss Asia-Pacific regional and maritime issues, as well as broader issues, the Financial Times reported on Aug. 4.

China, U.S.: Working Groups on Asia, Broader Issues Under Consideration

The head of Russia's defense affairs committee, Andrei Kartapolov, proposed a bill introducing criminal penalties for evading military service and conscription, TASS reported on Aug. 3.

Russia: Legislator Proposes Harsher Punishment for Evasion of Military Service

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Iran

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

A Campaign Finance Scandal Threatens Colombia's President

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine: Attendees Describe Jeddah Talks as Productive, Hint at Future Discussions

Senegal: Opposition Leader Admitted to Hospital After Hunger Strike

Niger: ECOWAS Announces Summit on Niger on Aug. 10

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Declares Russian Black Sea Ports Zones of Military Threat After Striking Tanker

China, Philippines: Beijing Maintains Maritime 'Grey Zone' Tactics While U.S. Stands By

Iraq: Federal Government, Kurdistan Agree to Draft New Federal Oil Law

Russia: Navalny Sentenced to 19 Years in Prison

Russia, Ukraine: Kyiv Strikes Russian Naval Base on Black Sea

China, U.S.: Working Groups on Asia, Broader Issues Under Consideration

Russia: Legislator Proposes Harsher Punishment for Evasion of Military Service

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