Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 12, 2023

Media

Morocco

Podcasts

Essential Geopolitics thumbnail

Environment, Science & Technology

How is Morocco dealing with the fallout from the quake?

Essential Geopolitics: The Long-Term Implications of Morocco's Recent Earthquake

Sri Lanka

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen in Washington, D.C. 

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

To keep the country's economic recovery on track, Colombo will likely seek to unlock the delayed next tranche of its bailout package by enacting more reforms, though this risks public backlash.

What's Next for Sri Lanka After Its Failed IMF Review?

Will there be a defense deal between Saudi Arabia and the United States?

Essential Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Ambitions

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Israeli forces launch artillery fire toward southern Lebanon from the border zone in northern Israel on Oct. 9, 2023, while Hezbollah denied involvement in clashes or ''any infiltration attempt'' into Israel.

The latest clashes between Israel and Hezbollah suggest that the constraints on direct confrontation are weakening, threatening to worsen political and economic conditions in Lebanon and significantly increase security threats in both countries.

The Growing Risk of an Israel-Hezbollah Escalation

Palestinian Territories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting at his office in Jerusalem on Sept. 27, 2023. 

Israel's new unity government will give the military the political support it needs to fight another war in Gaza and potentially Lebanon. But fractures will quickly emerge once the conflict ends. 

Israel's Political Rivals Come Together in the Face of War

Graphics

Israel Defense Forces soldiers guard an area around the Israeli settlement Kfar Azza on Oct. 10, 2023, after Hamas militants killed dozens of civilians there days earlier.

Hamas' Oct. 7 infiltration of Israel was a remarkable failure of the Israeli army's defenses.

Hamas' Major Infiltration Points in Israel

Europe

The Doel nuclear power station is seen at night on June 10, 2023, in Antwerp, Belgium. 

Energy

More European countries will build nuclear reactors to cut emissions and bolster their energy security. But political, technical and financial hurdles will complicate their efforts.

New Energy and Climate Realities Prompt Europe to Revisit Nuclear Power

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

A missile explodes over Gaza City during an Israeli air strike on Oct. 8, 2023. 

In response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, Israel is widely expected to launch an incursion that could spark another bloody intifada, along with widespread unrest across the region.

The Implications of an Israeli Ground Invasion in Gaza

Iranians attend a gathering in Tehran on Oct. 7, 2023, to express their support for Palestinians after Hamas militants launched a deadly assault into Israel from the Gaza Strip. 

While the exact scope of its participation is unclear, Tehran was likely involved in planning the assault, raising the risk of Israeli and/or U.S. retaliation that could spark a broader conflict.

Iran's Potential Motives for Backing the Hamas Attack on Israel

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Damage caused by Israeli airstrikes Oct. 7, 2023, in Gaza City, Gaza, in response to a Hamas-led incursion into Israel. A large-scale Hamas attack threatens to significantly escalate conflict between Israel and the militant groups. 

Violence could spread from Gaza to the West Bank, and attacks from Lebanon and unrest within Israel proper are also possible.

How the Hamas Surprise Attack From Gaza on Israel Could Play Out

Liberia

Australia

Germany

United Kingdom

The U.S. Capitol. 

Cyber

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. House Attempts to Elect a New Speaker, a Possible LNG Strike in Australia

Latest

Ecuador

Ecuadorean presidential candidate Daniel Noboa (center) gives a thumbs up as he rides on top of a truck during a campaign caravan in Quito, Ecuador, on Oct. 11, 2023. 

The Oct. 15 presidential run-off could end years of political deadlock, but the country's security and economic challenges will almost certainly persist regardless of the outcome.

The Challenges That Await Ecuador's Next President

Bahrain

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Smoke billows Oct. 10, 2023, from the Gaza Strip's Rafah border crossing with Egypt during an Israeli airstrike. Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

How the Gaza War Will Impact Egyptian Politics

China

A stock photo shows a map of China on digital display.

To comply with Beijing's strict data rules, large multinational companies are insulating their Chinese business from their global operations -- something smaller firms will struggle to do.

In China, Growing Oversight Prompts Foreign Firms to Silo Their Operations

A campaign poster for Liberian President George Weah is seen above a street in Monrovia, Liberia, on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The Oct. 10 vote will open the door to fraud allegations and a potential presidential runoff that could spark a resumption of election-related violence in the small West African country.

Previewing Liberia's General Election

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) talks to reporters following the weekly Senate Democratic policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 28, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

The myriad constraints on deeper U.S.-China cooperation mean the trip is unlikely to yield tangible results, beyond reopening an avenue for dialogue that COVID-19 had largely closed. 

Setting Expectations for the First U.S. Congressional Visit to China in Years

U.S.-China Relations

Slovakia

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico waits to meet the country's president in Bratislava on Oct. 2, 2023, following his Smer party's victory in Slovakia's Sept. 30 snap election. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Upcoming coalition talks will likely yield a more Eurosceptic government that could reduce the country's political and military aid to Kyiv.

What Slovakia's Election Results Mean for Its Political Future and Support for Ukraine

Maldives

India

 A commuter in Male, the Maldives, takes pictures of a decorated wall along a street ahead of the country's presidential election on Sept. 6, 2023.

The Sept. 30 presidential race will decipher whether New Delhi or Beijing has more influence over the strategic island nation in the Indian Ocean.

An Election Runoff Could Alter the Maldives' Balance Between China and India

Burkina Faso

Ibrahim Traore, Burkina Faso's interim president, attends a ceremony in Ouagadougou on Oct. 15, 2022.

The junta's failure to maintain stability and resolve underlying grievances will raise the risk of future coups and provide possible inroads for more Russian influence.

What an Alleged Coup Attempt Means for Burkina Faso's Stability

Columns

On Geopolitics

Argentina

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Sub-Saharan Africa

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Ukraine

Georgia

Belarus

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

Russia

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Israeli airstrikes hit Syria's international airports in Damascus and Aleppo, causing both airports to close, Reuters reported on Oct. 12.

Israel, Syria: Israeli Airstrikes in Syria Damage Airports, Disrupt Iranian Aerial Supply Lines

South Korea

The candidate of South Korea's conservative People Power Party (PPP) lost by 17 percentage points to that of the Democratic Party (DPK) in a by-election for chief of Seoul's Gangseo Ward, Yonhap News Agency reported on Oct. 12.

South Korea: By-Election Loss, Poll Results Bode Ill for President Yoon's Party

Mexico

The Mexican government issued an order granting tax breaks to firms in an effort to entice them to nearshore their operations, Reuters reported on Oct. 11.

Mexico: Government Proposes Tax Incentives for Businesses

The Lebanese militant and political group Hezbollah deployed special forces and positioned rockets on the country's southern border amid Israel's war in Gaza, Reuters reported on Oct. 11.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Mobilizes as Poll Reveals Outrage in Israel

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held their first phone call since signing the China-brokered agreement for their countries to restore ties in March, Reuters reported on Oct. 11, citing Iranian state media.

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Leaders Speak for First Time Since China-Brokered Agreement in March

China's special envoy for the Middle East Zhai Jun declared that "China is ready to coordinate with Egypt to promote an immediate ceasefire" between Israel and Palestinian militant groups, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 11.

China: Beijing's Noncommittal Stance Undermines Its Chances of Mediating the Conflict in Israel

In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it expects global economic growth to decelerate slightly from 3% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024.

Global: IMF Expects Global Economic Growth to Decelerate Slightly in 2024

Kenya

Kenya started talks with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other development institutions over a new loan to help it cover a $2 billion eurobond maturing in June 2024, The EastAfrican reported on Oct. 11.

Kenya: Government Opens Talks With IMF, World Bank on Eurobond Repayment

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that Australian reporter Cheng Lei had returned to Australia after three years of detention in China on unspecified charges of sharing state secrets, NBC reported on Oct. 11.

Australia, China: Cheng Lei Returns Home as Bilateral Relations Rebalance

Slovakia's election-winner Direction-Social Democracy (Smer) party signed an agreement with the center-left Voice-Social Democracy (Hlas) and the right-wing Slovak National Party (SNS) parties to form a coalition government with Smer's leader Robert Fico as prime minister, Pravda reported on Oct. 11.

Slovakia: Nationalist-Populist Smer Party Signs Deal to Form Coalition Government

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Challenges That Await Ecuador's Next President

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Syria: Israeli Airstrikes in Syria Damage Airports, Disrupt Iranian Aerial Supply Lines

South Korea: By-Election Loss, Poll Results Bode Ill for President Yoon's Party

Mexico: Government Proposes Tax Incentives for Businesses

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Mobilizes as Poll Reveals Outrage in Israel

Iran, Saudi Arabia: Leaders Speak for First Time Since China-Brokered Agreement in March

China: Beijing's Noncommittal Stance Undermines Its Chances of Mediating the Conflict in Israel

Global: IMF Expects Global Economic Growth to Decelerate Slightly in 2024

Kenya: Government Opens Talks With IMF, World Bank on Eurobond Repayment

Australia, China: Cheng Lei Returns Home as Bilateral Relations Rebalance

Slovakia: Nationalist-Populist Smer Party Signs Deal to Form Coalition Government

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