Assessments

Guatemala

United States

Yemen

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Houthis during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel in November 2023 at an unnamed location in the Red Sea.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Possible Houthi Reply to U.S.-U.K. Strikes, Taiwan's General Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Iran

A Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft returns to berth following a strike mission on Yemen's Houthi rebels at RAF Akrotiri on Jan. 12, 2024, in Akrotiri, Cyprus. While U.S.-British joint strikes on the Houthis will degrade some of their capabilities, they are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

Military & Security

The strikes will degrade some Houthi capabilities, but are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

What Western Strikes on the Houthis Mean for Yemen and the Region

Media

Podcasts

Environment, Science & Technology

Does the vaccine reduce the likelihood of long COVID?

Beyond COVID: The JN.1 Variant -- Who Should Get Vaccinated?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

US Naval Update Map: Jan 11, 2024

Ecuador

Police present detainees in the case of TC Television in which armed men broke into the station's live broadcast on Jan. 10, 2024, in Guayaquil, Ecuador. 

While the government may be able to temporarily secure crime hot spots, major constraints on curbing gang activity portend a protracted security crisis with potential political implications.

Ecuador Declares 'Internal Armed Conflict' as Gang Violence Escalates

Israel

The president of Israel's Supreme Court, Esther Hayut (center), and judges assemble on Sept. 28, 2023, to hear petitions against a law that blocks the court from potentially ordering the prime minister to recuse himself from office. 

Demands from the far-right to renew the government's judicial reform push and relocate Palestinians in Gaza will further alarm the center-right and make their exit from the coalition more likely.

Israel's Government Is Once Again at Risk of Collapse

Columns

On Geopolitics

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Ethiopia

Somalia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed attends a press conference in Rome, Italy, on Feb. 6, 2023. 

The implementation of the deal, which will grant land-locked Ethiopia access to the Berbera port in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence, could reshape the politics of the Horn of Africa.

The Drivers and Risks of Ethiopia's Historic Pact With Somaliland

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) gestures as he and his Premier Li Qiang (left) arrive for a dinner marking the 74th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on Sept. 28, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

Economics

While it may initially engender better policy alignment with Xi's priorities, the expanding purge of senior government officials risks paving the way for a future power crisis that further isolates China's economy.

Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Risks Long-Term Destabilization in China

Europe

Germany

France

Italy

Russia

A view of the Russian Central Bank headquarters is seen in downtown Moscow on May 26, 2022.

To unlock more money for Kyiv, the U.S. and Europe may confiscate Russian government assets stashed in Western nations, which would escalate the greater economic tit-for-tat between Moscow and the West.

Ukraine's Western Allies Mull Seizing Frozen Russian Assets

Palestinian Territories

Bangladesh

An Awami League campaign rally Jan. 4, 2024, in Dhaka, Bangladesh. On Jan. 7, Bangladesh will hold general elections in which the ruling Awami League will seek a fifth term under Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's leadership.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The Weekly Rundown: Bangladeshi Elections, Blinken's Latest Middle East Visit

Latest

Taiwanese President-Elect, William Lai (left), celebrates alongside his running mate (right) during a rally at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13, 2024, after winning the presidential election.

The ruling party's continued control of Taiwan's presidency will see Beijing steadily escalate its economic and military coercion against Taipei, presenting a low risk of blockades or an invasion of Taiwan's outlying islands. 

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

U.S.-China Relations

Morocco

People protest against high living costs in Rabat, Morocco, on Feb. 20, 2023.

If the country's cost-of-living crisis worsens, Rabat may face political turmoil that results in a Cabinet reshuffle or the prime minister's resignation.

What's in Store for Morocco in 2024

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

Cyber

The growing patchwork of local laws in the U.S. will pose compliance challenges for companies operating across state lines.

In the Absence of a Federal Framework, US States Enact Their Own Data Privacy Laws

Asia-Pacific

India

For the remainder of the decade, emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform those in all other regions, though the extent will depend heavily on China's performance.

Despite Slowed Chinese Growth, Global Economic Power Continues to Shift Toward Asia

Tunisia

Spain

Tunisian dinar.

Tunisia will push European states for more aid as migrants use the country as a launching point to the Continent.

Tunisia Angles for More European Aid as Migrants Travel North

Argentina

A graph falling down in front of the Argentine flag.

Argentina's governmental push to deregulate its economy and strengthen competition in the private sector is set to face significant challenges in the short term but will prove a more attractive business environment in South America's second-largest economy in the long term.

In Argentina, the Challenges and Benefits Facing Milei's Deregulation Push

Former U.S. president and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023. That same day, a Colorado court ruled Trump could not appear on the state's presidential primary ballot due to his involvement in the U.S. Capitol riot in January 2021. 

The decision to ban Trump from Colorado's presidential primary ballot could increase the risk of political violence in the U.S., while reinforcing global perceptions that America's institutional and democratic strength is ailing.

Gauging the Fallout From the Colorado Court Ruling Against Trump

Angola

Republic of the Congo

South Africa

Zambia

U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with President Joao Lourenco of Angola during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on Nov. 30, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

A new supply line could increase access to Central African mining exports and strengthen Western influence in the region, but several constraints stand in the way.

Washington's 'Flagship' Africa Project: A New Supply Line for Central African Mining Exports

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 13, 2023. 

Kishida's scapegoating of powerful LDP officials to manage a slush fund scandal will likely see him replaced as prime minister, which may force Japan to turn its attention inward and away from regional security matters.

In Japan, Kishida's Leadership Purge Will Likely Lead to His Own Ouster

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

South Korea

Poland

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Palestinian Hamas militants are seen during a military show in Gaza City, Gaza, on July 20, 2017.

Without a central geography to anchor the group, there may be deepening rifts between Hamas' Doha-based politicians, its surviving militants in the West Bank and Gaza, and its fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

The Future of Hamas Without Gaza

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

Netherlands

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

Qatar

Qatar's Foreign Ministry announced that Israel will allow the delivery of medicine and aid to vulnerable areas of Gaza in exchange for the Palestinian militant group Hamas allowing medicine deliveries to Israeli hostages in the strip, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 16.

Qatar, Israel: Qatar Reaches Medicine Deal With Israel, Hamas

Media outfits linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that Iran struck alleged bases in Pakistan linked to the Jaish al-Adl militant group, AP reported on Jan. 16.

Iran, Pakistan: Iran Conducts Strikes in Pakistan, Prompting Pakistani Condemnation

Lebanon

Israeli forces conducted at least 16 airstrikes in southern Lebanon's Saluki Valley and a rare special operations strike on a target around Aita al Shaab, a village in southern Lebanon, Reuters reported on Jan. 16.

Lebanon: Israelis Conduct Intense Strikes, Including Special Forces Strike on Lebanon

The United States and South Korea agreed to start talks ahead of schedule on the renegotiation of their cost-sharing agreement for South Korea's hosting of U.S. forces through 2026, Yonhap News Agency reported on Jan. 16, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

South Korea, US: Military Cost-Sharing Talks Ahead of Schedule

Armed men arrested Lt. Col. Evrard Somda, former chief of staff of Burkina Faso's national gendarmerie, from his home in Ouagadougou on Jan. 14, The Africa Report reported the following day.

Burkina Faso: Four Soldiers Arrested in Alleged Coup Plot

Sudan

The Sudanese government said its representatives will not attend the Jan. 18 Intergovernmental Authority on Development summit, citing the need for a face-to-face meeting between interim President Abdel-Fattah Burhan and head of the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Degalo, the Sudan Tribune reported on Jan. 13. 

Sudan: Government Pulls Out of Upcoming Conflict Negotiations

Maldives

During talks with Indian officials, the Maldives called for the withdrawal of Indian troops by March 15, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

Maldives: Government Calls for Removal of Indian Troops by March 15

Pakistan's opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, retracted its petition against the Election Commission's alleged inability to guarantee a fair competition in the Feb. 8 general elections, Geo News reported on Jan. 15.

Pakistan: Main Opposition Party Withdraws Petition, Cannot Use Traditional Election Symbol

Science & Technology

OpenAI launched an array of tools that will attribute sources and information on current events to text generated by the company's generative artificial intelligent chatbot, ChatGPT, according to an OpenAI blog post on Jan. 15.

Cyberspace: OpenAI Rolls Out Tools to Combat Election Disinformation

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Chad

Chad's ruling Patriotic Salvation Movement party designated junta leader Gen. Mahamat Idriss Deby as its candidate for the October 2024 presidential elections during a party congress in the capital, TchadInfos reported on Jan. 13.

Chad: Military Junta Leader Designated as Presidential Candidate

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Qatar, Israel: Qatar Reaches Medicine Deal With Israel, Hamas

Iran, Pakistan: Iran Conducts Strikes in Pakistan, Prompting Pakistani Condemnation

Lebanon: Israelis Conduct Intense Strikes, Including Special Forces Strike on Lebanon

South Korea, US: Military Cost-Sharing Talks Ahead of Schedule

Burkina Faso: Four Soldiers Arrested in Alleged Coup Plot

Sudan: Government Pulls Out of Upcoming Conflict Negotiations

Maldives: Government Calls for Removal of Indian Troops by March 15

Pakistan: Main Opposition Party Withdraws Petition, Cannot Use Traditional Election Symbol

Cyberspace: OpenAI Rolls Out Tools to Combat Election Disinformation

Chad: Military Junta Leader Designated as Presidential Candidate

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