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Military & Security

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

What is the future trajectory of the peace process?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of Cancelled Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

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Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 19, 2024

Bangladesh

When can we expect elections in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina's resignation?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Bangladeshi Politics

Syria

A man carries a Turkish national flag as Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather along the frontlines opposite Kurdish forces near the town of Dadat in Syria's northern Aleppo province, on July 5, 2022. 

Turkey will seek to exert its influence over Syria's new leaders to prevent Kurdish autonomy, promote Turkish business interests and facilitate the return of refugees.

Turkey Is Poised to Reap the Benefits of a New Order in Syria

South Korea

Germany

Russia

A sign reading ''leader of insurgents'' on a photo of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's face is held up during a protest calling for Yoon's ouster in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 8, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin's Annual Press Conference, Another Impeachment Vote in South Korea

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ethiopia

Somalia

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 12, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Latest

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a news broadcast on a television at a train station in Seoul on Dec. 3, 2024, after Yoon declared emergency martial law.

Despite lawmakers voting to impeach the president, there is still ample room for more political tumult in the months ahead, keeping South Korea's economic and foreign policy trajectory in limbo.

Yoon's Impeachment Opens a New Chapter in South Korea's Saga of Political Instability

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Snapshots

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

Lebanon

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

Global Elections

Senegal

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What's Next for Senegal After the President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Ukraine

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready for negotiations and unspecified "compromises" regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the BBC reported on Dec. 19. 

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

Malaysia

Malaysian National Security Council Director-General Raja Nushirwan Zainal Abidin announced plans to modernize his country's navy and air force to safeguard its maritime domain, including in the South China Sea, while still emphasizing dialogue and diplomacy with other claimants, namely China, The Straits Times reported on Dec. 19. 

Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur To Strengthen Territorial Defense in South China Sea

Myanmar

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Gen. Than Shwe told a regional conference in Bangkok, Thailand, that his country is "on track" to hold an election in 2025 that will end Myanmar's civil war, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 19.

Myanmar: Foreign Minister Says War-Ending Election on Track for 2025

Pakistan

The United States announced new sanctions on Dec. 18 targeting Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile program, including the state-owned National Development Complex that oversees the program, AP reported on Dec. 19.

Pakistan: U.S. Sanctions Pakistan's Missile Program Amid Weapons Proliferation Concerns

Mozambique

South Africa

South Africa's international relations minister, Ronald Lamola, and Mozambique's minister of interior, Pascoal Ronda, agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation to mitigate disruptions to trade between the two countries caused by Mozambique's postelection unrest, Daily Maverick reported on Dec. 18. 

South Africa, Mozambique: Ministers Vow Stronger Cooperation To Mitigate Trade Disruptions

Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu presented a 49.7 trillion naira ($31.9 billion) 2025 budget to Nigeria's National Assembly, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 18. 

Nigeria: President Tinubu Presents 2025 Budget

Philippines

Taiwan

An annual Pentagon report on China's military detailed on Dec. 18 the faster-than-expected expansion of China's nuclear arsenal to 600 warheads in 2024. 

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

Science & Technology

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Somalia's federal government is expected to allow Ethiopian troops to take part in the new African Union peacekeeping mission set to start in January 2025, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 19, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Yemen

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes against ports and energy targets in Yemen's Houthi rebel-controlled areas, including Salif, Ras Isa, al-Hudaydah and Sanaa, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Ports and Energy Targets in Yemen

Jordan

The Jaber border crossing in Jordan began to receive trucks from Syria for the first time since Dec. 6, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 18.

Syria, Jordan: Jordan Reopens Key Crossing Into Syria

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur To Strengthen Territorial Defense in South China Sea

Myanmar: Foreign Minister Says War-Ending Election on Track for 2025

Pakistan: U.S. Sanctions Pakistan's Missile Program Amid Weapons Proliferation Concerns

South Africa, Mozambique: Ministers Vow Stronger Cooperation To Mitigate Trade Disruptions

Nigeria: President Tinubu Presents 2025 Budget

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

Somalia: Government May Allow Ethiopian Troops To Remain in Country

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Ports and Energy Targets in Yemen

Syria, Jordan: Jordan Reopens Key Crossing Into Syria

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