Assessments

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 16, 2026

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Iran

Podcasts

Economics

Politics

Which Sub-Saharan countries face the highest risk of protests and unrest in the coming months?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

Military & Security

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Israel

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Ukraine

Russia

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

United Kingdom

Andy Burnham delivers a speech on June 29, 2026, in Manchester, England. 

As prime minister, Andy Burnham will likely maintain continuity on fiscal, foreign and defense policies within tight budget and market constraints, along with an incremental approach to EU relations.

Previewing Burnham's Premiership in the U.K.

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Europe

France

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Germany

Spain

EU flags are displayed in the EU Council headquarters on July 9, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.

While the European Union is unlikely to adopt the Spanish plan, it could drive an incremental expansion of common borrowing for strategic priorities like defense and industrial competitiveness.


Spain Broaches EU Taboo With Common Debt Proposal

A German flag flutters in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany. 

Global Trade

The package of reforms aims to revive productivity and lift Europe's largest economy out of its multi-year slump, though the package's limited nature and global trade headwinds will limit the impact in the medium term.


Germany's Labor-Market Reforms Could Lead to Modest Economic Improvements

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 9, 2026

Journalists surround French far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen (center) as she arrives with National Rally president Jordan Bardella (third from right) for a campaign rally in La Fleche, France, on July 8, 2026.

With the launch of Le Pen's campaign, the National Rally appears set to win France's 2027 presidential election, signaling a coming policy shift toward EU confrontation and weaker NATO integration, though various constraints would temper implementation.

As Le Pen Returns to the Race, What Would a Far-Right Presidency Look Like in France?

Latest

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

Vessels are seen anchored along the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026. 

By demanding investment pledges from Gulf states after threatening a 20% toll, the White House is signaling its defense of global trade routes is now a transactional service rather than a core strategic commitment.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Guyana

Peru

Venezuela

Pilgrims with flags from different countries gather at Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 23, 2013, as they wait for the official opening of the Catholic Church's World Youth Day, which will be celebrated with a holy Mass. 

As many South American countries embrace right-leaning governments, their policies will increasingly align with those of the U.S. Trump administration, opening them to increased security cooperation, although economic integration remains unlikely.

What South America's Rightward Political Shift Means for U.S. Relations

India

The U.S. and Indian flags adorn the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 20, 2023.

While the ban could prompt the U.S. to lower its proposed Section 301 tariff on India from 12.5% to 10%, unresolved concerns over manufacturing overcapacity will sustain the risk of broader, sector-specific tariffs.

India Imposes Forced Labor Import Ban to Reduce U.S. Tariff Exposure

Albania

Montenegro

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

Sudan

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

U.S.-China Relations

In his July 16 address to the nation, U.S. President Donald Trump made dozens of references to alleged Chinese interference in the 2020 election, stating that China did not want him to win and that the U.S. deep state (the FBI, the CIA and White House staffers) colluded to keep Trump ignorant of China's malfeasance.

U.S., China: Despite Trump's Election Rhetoric, China Trade Summit To Proceed

Hong Kong SAR, China

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced on July 17 that Executive Order 13936, issued by President Donald Trump on July 14, 2020, had expired.

U.S., Hong Kong: Washington Scales Back Policy That Treats Hong Kong Like China

Iranian state media said the United States military had attacked bridges, a railway junction and a control tower at the Chabahar port, AP reported on July 17.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Targets Iranian Civilian Infrastructure, Iran Retaliates Proportionately

Kenya

Sammy Waweru of the Democracy for the Citizens Party, or DCP, decisively won the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, delivering former Deputy President and DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua a significant political boost in the strategically important Mt. Kenya region ahead of the 2027 general election, Daily Nation reported on July 17.

Kenya: By-Election Underscores Intensifying Contest for Mt. Kenya

Nigeria

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Olayemi Cardoso said the country's net foreign exchange reserves had risen from $3 billion to $40 billion since he took office in 2023, owing to economic and monetary reforms, adding that gross external reserves had reached close to $52 billion, BusinessDay reported on July 16.

Nigeria: Net Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach $40B, Central Bank Governor Says

Science & Technology

The European Commission on July 17 presented its Electrification Action Plan, setting a nonbinding target to double the share of electricity in the bloc's final energy consumption to 46%, alongside an Emissions Trading System review that slows mandated emissions cuts and extends free permits for industry, a press release shows.

EU: Commission Unveils 2040 Electrification Target, Softer Carbon Market Rules

Andy Burnham was confirmed as leader of the United Kingdom's ruling Labour Party, positioning him to assume the office of prime minister after outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigns on July 20, The Guardian reported on July 17.

U.K.: Burnham Set To Become Prime Minister as Soon as the Week of July 20

Cyber

Chinese artificial intelligence lab Moonshot AI on July 16 released its K3 model, which exceeds or nearly matches the capabilities of U.S. AI companies' most advanced publicly released AI models. 

China: Moonshot's K3 Matches Capabilities of Advanced U.S. AI Models

Israel's Knesset voted to dissolve itself on July 16, with the body now in recess until the next parliament is appointed after the scheduled election set for Oct. 27, The Times of Israel reported on July 17.

Israel: Election Season Begins as Knesset Dissolves

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Maj. Gen. Ievhen Khmara, acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine, as interim defense minister after Mykhailo Fedorov's removal triggered rare wartime protests and the resignation of deputy air force commander Col. Pavlo Yelizarov, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 16. 

Ukraine: Popular Defense Minister's Ouster Sparks Protests, Exposes Civilian-Military Rift

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

Security as a Service: The Risks of Trump's Transactionalism in the Strait of Hormuz

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Despite Trump's Election Rhetoric, China Trade Summit To Proceed

U.S., Hong Kong: Washington Scales Back Policy That Treats Hong Kong Like China

U.S., Iran: U.S. Targets Iranian Civilian Infrastructure, Iran Retaliates Proportionately

Kenya: By-Election Underscores Intensifying Contest for Mt. Kenya

Nigeria: Net Foreign Exchange Reserves Reach $40B, Central Bank Governor Says

EU: Commission Unveils 2040 Electrification Target, Softer Carbon Market Rules

U.K.: Burnham Set To Become Prime Minister as Soon as the Week of July 20

China: Moonshot's K3 Matches Capabilities of Advanced U.S. AI Models

Israel: Election Season Begins as Knesset Dissolves

Ukraine: Popular Defense Minister's Ouster Sparks Protests, Exposes Civilian-Military Rift

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