Assessments

United States

Saudi Arabia

China

Germany

France

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

India

National security adviser Jake Sullivan on June 2 in Washington. Sullivan on June 13 will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Delhi ahead of Modi's June 22 visit to the United States.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Jake Sullivan Visits India, an Arab-China Business Conference

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

Environment, Science & Technology

What impact does social media have on adolescent mental health?

RANE Insights: Protecting Adolescent Mental Health

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 8, 2023

Cyber

 How does cyber resiliency differ from cybersecurity?

RANE Insights: Cybersecurity and State Government

In the global race to develop AI chatbots, China's rules-laden system may hamper competitiveness and pose compliance, reputational and other cyber risks for organizations.

Chinese Chatbots and the Rise of AI Risks

Beyond COVID: The End of COVID as a Public Health Emergency

What does the feud between the Wagner Group's head and Russia's military leadership have to do with a Ukrainian counteroffensive?

Essential Geopolitics: The Impact of a Ukrainian Counteroffensive on the War's Trajectory

U.S. President Joe Biden (right) meets with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to discuss the debt ceiling in the Oval Office of the White House on May 22, 2023. 

Economics

While U.S. lawmakers avoided a default by raising the debt ceiling, disputes over how to cut spending and boost revenue will intensify as the stakes increase.

The U.S.'s Growing Debt Burden Portends More Gridlock on Budget Policy

Columns

On Geopolitics

A Tibetan Buddhist woman stands on a hill overlooking the Labrang Monastery on March 2, 2018, in Gansu, China, the country's poorest province.

While eastern cities like Beijing may individually escape the middle-income trap, China's interior risks being left behind, which could impede the country's ability to overcome its demographic decline.

China's Geographic Divides Will Compound Its Demographic Challenge

Mali

Mexico

Turkey

Australia

Japan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the 28th term deputies' oath-taking ceremony at the Turkish Grand National Assembly on June 2, 2023, in Ankara. Speculation is rife that former Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek will be appointed head of the Turkish Treasury in a move likely to delight international investors.

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Economic Shift in Turkey, the Shangri-La Dialogue

U.S.-China Relations

How can individuals and companies mitigate the effects of misinformation and disinformation?

RANE Insights: Fighting Misinformation and Disinformation

Latest

Iran

Iran's U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani addresses the U.N. General Assembly on November 14, 2022.

Energy

The potential agreement on uranium enrichment and oil exports could ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran, but it'd still be extremely fragile and difficult to implement.

What To Make of Reports of a U.S.-Iran Interim Nuclear Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin speaks during the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on June 3, 2023.

A tense naval encounter in the Taiwan Strait during a high-level defense summit in Asia shows the perils of reduced communication between Washington and Beijing.

For the U.S. and China, Less Dialogue Means More Dicey Military Encounters

Snapshots

River port flooding in Kherson on June 6, 2023, in Kherson, Ukraine, downstream from the Nova Kakhovka Dam. The major damage to the Nova Kakhovka Dam will force Ukraine to adjust but not fundamentally alter its emerging counteroffensive plans.

The incident will damage crop yields, flood Russian-occupied areas south of the Dnieper River and force Kyiv to adjust its emerging counteroffensive.

Gauging the Impact of the Kakhovka Dam Collapse in Ukraine

Europe

Moldova

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Qatar

Afghanistan

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

Social Issues

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waves at supporters at the presidential palace after winning reelection in a runoff on May 29, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

President Erdogan will likely stay the course on most policies, though his government may scale back some of the unorthodox economic strategies that have vexed markets.

In Turkey, the Erdogan Era Continues

The Bundestag, Germany's federal parliament, is seen at night.

Disputes over a new climate bill bode ill for the government's ability to negotiate a tight federal budget.

More Cracks Appear in Germany's Ruling Coalition

Ghana

Ghanaians march in Accra on Nov. 5, 2022, to protest against the government’s handling of the country’s dire economic crisis.

The $3 billion loan will boost the country's foreign reserves, though some of the required unpopular fiscal consolidation measures may increase political volatility.

An IMF Bailout Will Help Kick-Start Ghana's Economic Recovery, but Challenges Remain

Ecuador

Police forces stand guard outside Ecuador's National Assembly in Quito after the country's president issued a decree dissolving the legislature on May 17, 2023. 

Lasso's use of a constitutional clause to disband the legislature and rule by decree before early elections will face institutional opposition and likely spur disruptive protests.

Ecuador's President Dissolves Congress To Avoid Impeachment. But at What Cost?

Greece

Alexis Tsipras (left), who leads the left-wing Syriza party, and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (right), who leads the right-wing New Democracy party, look in opposite directions during a televised debate in Athens on May 10, 2023. 

The May 21 ballot could yield a hung parliament, but despite potential policymaking delays, abrupt economic policy changes are improbable.

How Greece's Election Could Impact Its Economy

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center left, wearing a red tie) and his newly appointed cabinet members visit the Anıtkabir memorial site in Ankara, Turkey, on June 6, 2023.

To cement his legacy, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in Russia and Israel's footsteps by expanding Turkey's territory in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria and Cyprus.

A Final Term for Turkey's Erdogan in the Age of Annexation

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Taiwan

A Taiwanese tank on display for tourists is seen silhouetted against the skyline of the Chinese city Xiamen in Kinmen, Taiwan, an island in the Taiwan Strait that is part of Taiwan's territory.

Though an invasion of Taiwan does not appear imminent, the development of the Chinese military is the key variable to track for understanding the likelihood and potential success of such an invasion. 

The Evolving Taiwan-China Relationship, Part 3: The Military

People walk along a pedestrian street surrounded by small shops in Changsha, China, on Sept. 7, 2020.

Despite its shrinking population, China still has plenty of workers. But many of them currently lack the skills needed to drive the country’s transition to a high-income economy.

What China's Demographic Decline Means for Its Labor Force

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers remarks during a U.S.-Korea Business Forum at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on April 25, 2023, in Washington, D.C. 

President Yoon is trying to move his country to a more active foreign policy role, driven by fears of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions and being usurped by Japan as a strategic regional power.

Shifting Geopolitics Prompt South Korea to Mull Reasserting Its Place in the World

Colombia

A flag of the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla group flutters in the wind in Catatumbo, Colombia, on Aug. 18, 2022. 

Even if the government successfully disarms the country's powerful guerrilla groups, new ones will only take their place as long as Colombia's drug trade remains lucrative.

Will Colombia Ever Achieve 'Total Peace?'

The Colombian government agreed to a cease-fire with the country's largest remaining guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), AP reported June 9.

Colombia: Government Signs Cease-Fire With ELN Guerrilla Group

Lithuania

Malta

Bulgaria

Slovakia

Hungary

European Union ministers agreed on a deal to overhaul the bloc's migration and asylum policies for the first time in years, Reuters reported on June 8.

EU: EU Members Strike Major Deal on Migration and Asylum Rules

Laos

Laos is proceeding with the Phou Ngoy Dam project, the seventh of its nine planned hydroelectric dams on the Mekong River, despite social and environmental worries, BenarNews reported June 8. 

Laos: Vientiane Pushes Ahead with Seventh Mekong Dam

Nigeria

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu approved the Electricity Act 2023, Punch News reported on June 8.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Approves Electricity Act 

Ethiopia

The United Nations World Food Programme said that it was temporarily halting its food assistance to Ethiopia due to the widespread diversions of supplies, one day after the United States announced that it had done the same, Reuters reported June 9.

Ethiopia: The U.N. Joins Washington in Suspending Food Aid to Ethiopia 

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 1, 2023

Spain

Supporters of Spain's center-right Popular Party (PP) gather outside the PP's headquarters in Madrid on May 28, 2023, to celebrate the party's strong performance in recent regional elections. 

The July 23 snap general ballot could yield a PP-Vox coalition that reverses some of Spain's fiscal policies, disrupts its EU presidency and increases the risk of social unrest.


In Spain, an Early Election Opens the Door to a Right-Wing Government

A photo taken on June 28, 2022, at Lake Mead along the Colorado River in Boulder City, Nevada, shows the lake's water line in 2000 in contrast to its current low water levels. 

With Washington focused on the 2024 election, the desert cities that rely on the dwindling river will be forced to impose measures that further undermine their appeal as places to live and work.

In the U.S., the Initial Response to the Colorado River Crisis Will Be Local

Sub-Saharan Africa

An aerial view of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is seen on Nov. 25, 2022.

Africa's expanding population could create massive political, economic and humanitarian problems. But it also offers major new possibilities for growth and prosperity.

Africa's Population Boom, Part 1: The Opportunities and Risks

Israel

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to a new economic cooperation partnership termed the "Atlantic Declaration," the two leaders announced in a joint press conference at the White House on June 8.

U.K., U.S.: New 'Atlantic Declaration' to Increase U.K.-U.S. Trade Relations in Key Sectors

Czech Republic

Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu will attend a security conference in Prague on June 14, at which Wu will give a speech directly after Czech President Petr Pavel, Reuters reported on June 9. 

Taiwan, Czech Republic: Foreign Minister Wu's Visit to Prague Will Test Beijing's Restraint

Ukrainian forces continued offensive maneuvers in southern Ukraine for the fourth night in a row, attempting to break through Russian lines south of Orikhiv, the BBC reported June 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Counteroffensive Intensifies in Zaporizhzhia Region

General Motors (GM) announced that its electric vehicle (EV) owners will be able to use Tesla's Superchargers via an adapter in early 2024, and starting in 2025, it will begin installing the Tesla North American Charging Standard (NACS) port instead of the current industry standard combined charging system (CCS), Reuters reported June 9.

U.S.: GM to Adopt Tesla's EV Charging Standard, Potentially Positioning Tesla as Market Leader in EV Charging Modules 

Bangladesh

Prolonged power shortages are prompting production cuts and financial losses for factories across Bangladesh, with approximately 1,200 industrial factories in the port city of Chittagong alone reporting 20-30% average drops in production alongside increased production costs, The Business Standard reported June 8.

Bangladesh: Factories Face Production Cuts, Financial Losses Amid Electricity Crisis

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

What To Make of Reports of a U.S.-Iran Interim Nuclear Deal

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Colombia: Government Signs Cease-Fire With ELN Guerrilla Group

EU: EU Members Strike Major Deal on Migration and Asylum Rules

Laos: Vientiane Pushes Ahead with Seventh Mekong Dam

Nigeria: President Tinubu Approves Electricity Act

Ethiopia: The U.N. Joins Washington in Suspending Food Aid to Ethiopia

U.K., U.S.: New 'Atlantic Declaration' to Increase U.K.-U.S. Trade Relations in Key Sectors

Taiwan, Czech Republic: Foreign Minister Wu's Visit to Prague Will Test Beijing's Restraint

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Counteroffensive Intensifies in Zaporizhzhia Region

U.S.: GM to Adopt Tesla's EV Charging Standard, Potentially Positioning Tesla as Market Leader in EV Charging Modules

Bangladesh: Factories Face Production Cuts, Financial Losses Amid Electricity Crisis

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