Assessments

Brazil

United States

China

France

United Kingdom

Ireland

Belfast Harbour on Jan. 17, 2023, in Northern Ireland. U.S. President Joe Biden on April 11 will visit Belfast, Northern Ireland, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Economics

Politics

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Travels to Northern Ireland, a Saudi-Omani Delegation Visits Yemen

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 6, 2023

People walk on a street at the end of the workday in Beijing, China, on March 17, 2023. 

China's medium-term growth potential will continue to decline, accelerating Beijing's efforts to strengthen political oversight of the economy.

Despite Recent Growth, China's Economy Is Still Headed for a Greater Slowdown

Media

Afghanistan

Podcasts

Military & Security

What risks does the Taliban face as the fighting season begins?

Essential Geopolitics: Recent Security Developments in Afghanistan

Iran

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

A Russian peacekeeper guards the Lachin Corridor, the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, on Dec. 27, 2022. 

As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan stall, violent flare-ups in the disputed territory and along their shared border are increasingly likely.

Reassessing the Risk of an Escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh

Somalia

What do al Shabaab's territorial losses mean for Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Al Shabaab's Recent Territorial Losses

United Arab Emirates

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan attends a ceremony in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, on Nov. 11, 2019. 

41-year-old Sheikh Khaled will likely hold increasing weight over the country's policy direction and economic development as he's groomed to replace his father as president in the coming years.

A New Crown Prince Will Be Key in Gauging the UAE's Future

Snapshots

Finland

Petteri Orpo, the leader of Finland’s National Coalition party, speaks to the media in Helsinki following parliamentary elections on April 2, 2023. 

The next government will not dispute Finland's NATO membership, but a right-wing coalition could increase tensions with the EU on issues like fiscal integration and immigration.

Government Change in Helsinki Will Not Affect Finland's NATO Prospects

Belize

Guatemala

Israel

Turkey

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) at a weekly Cabinet meeting Feb. 19, 2023, in Jerusalem.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel's Cabinet Votes on a National Guard, Von der Leyen and Macron Visit China

U.S.-China Relations

Italy

A red prohibition sign is superimposed over the word "ChatGPT" against a green background.

Environment, Science & Technology

Western regulations against generative AI tools like ChatGPT may moderately slow the industry, but ongoing investor interest means these technologies will continue to develop.

Western Regulators Take Aim at ChatGPT

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

What does Xi's visit to Russia say about the trajectory of Russia-China relations?

Essential Geopolitics: China's Growing Russia-Ukraine Involvement

Latest

Taiwan

U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (center right) greets Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (center left) on her arrival at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on April 5, 2023, in Simi Valley, California. 

Beijing's more muted response to the meeting doesn't reflect a shift in its aggressive strategy toward Taipei, which will remain a stressor in cross-strait and U.S.-China trade relations.

Taiwan Will Continue to Vex U.S.-China Ties, Despite Low-Key Tsai-McCarthy Visit

Europe

Germany

Spain

A photograph taken on March 16, 2023, shows Lake Serre-Poncon partially dry, near Embrun, in the French Alps. 

Energy

Increasingly severe droughts and water shortages brought on by climate change will serve as a multiplier for Europe's energy, agricultural, industrial and socio-economic challenges. 

Europe's Scorching Summer and Warm Winter Portend a New Normal

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

A section of the Lebanese-Israeli border is seen near the village of Shtula in northern Israel on April 6, 2023. 

The attacks coincide with rising unrest in Israeli cities and the West Bank that could embolden the hawkish, far-right members of Israel’s new government.

In Israel, Rocket Fire From Lebanon Risks Spurring a Major Escalation

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro (center) presents his government's pension reform bill to lawmakers in Congress in Bogota, Colombia, on March 22, 2023. 

President Petro's proposed healthcare, pension and labor reforms could improve the lives of poorer Colombians, though it may come at the expense of private investment.

Colombia's Leftist Government Embarks on an Ambitious Reform Push

A mounted policeman stands guard during a March 27, 2023, protest in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Despite the delay, Netanyahu’s coalition is unlikely to abandon its push to overhaul the country’s court system, which will push opposition forces to maintain mass unrest that could spark violence.

Amid Protests, Israel's Government Pauses Its Judicial Reforms. What Now?

Japan

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) attend a joint news conference at the prime minister's official residence on March 16, 2023, in Tokyo, Japan. 

The recent thaw in relations could see Seoul and Tokyo deepen their economic and security cooperation in the coming months, but wartime grievances will impose an upper limit on cooperation.

A Historic Summit Bodes Well for Japan-South Korea Rapprochement -- For Now

Sri Lanka

Supporters of the opposition National Peoples Power (NPP) take part in a protest in Colombo, Sri Lanka, to urge the government to hold local elections as scheduled on Feb. 26, 2023. 

The delayed ballot will offer a key glimpse into the country's political climate since last year's mass protests, and could weaken its new government's ability to enact IMF-mandated reforms.

The Significance of Sri Lanka's Upcoming Local Elections

Transmission towers are seen in Antwerp, Belgium, on Feb. 7, 2023.

The proposal seeks to reduce energy price shocks for European consumers and boost investments in renewables, while avoiding major overhauls that could disrupt the bloc's market.

A Look at the EU's Proposed Electricity Market Reform

A protestor holds a placard that reads ''Empty Fridge Equals Violence of Dispair'' near a pile of burning trash during a demonstration in Paris, France, against the government's proposed pension reform on March 11, 2023. 

The French president's move to circumvent the National Assembly will limit his government's ability to enact future reforms and raise the risk of more disruptive protests.

Macron Forces Through His Pension Reform. But at What Cost?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israeli military veterans wave national flags during a rally against the government's judicial reform bill along a highway near Netanya on March 28, 2023.

Israel's judicial reforms are about more than its balance of power. They're about how Israel's national identity will confront the multipolar world.

Unrest in Israel Reveals a Broader Debate About National Identity

On Security

Mexico

Images of the place where four U.S. citizens were found after being kidnapped in Matamoros, Mexico, are shown on screens during a press conference in Mexico City on March 7, 2023. 

The attack on U.S. citizens and the response from the cartel, as well as the Mexican and U.S. governments, confirm the long-standing dynamics underpinning Mexico's criminal landscape.

What the Matamoros Kidnapping Says About the State of Cartel Violence in Mexico

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022. 

As China considers providing military aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine, Beijing will weigh various historical, economic and political factors.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 2

A Chinese battle tank competes in a tank biathlon event held by the Russian military on Aug. 27, 2022, outside of Moscow, Russia. 

The U.S. claims Beijing is ''strongly considering'' providing Moscow lethal aid in Ukraine -- a move that would have sweeping consequences for not only the war, but China's development and its relations with the West.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of China Providing Military Aid to Russia, Part 1

A hand holds a virtual circuitry-inspired display that represents ChatGPT.

Generative artificial intelligence tools will revolutionize job markets around the world by increasing automation and facilitating the creation of entirely new industries.

The Rise of ChatGPT and the Future of White-Collar Jobs

Saudi Arabia

(From left) Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, then-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa pose for a photo during the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. 

With the end of the U.S.-led unipolar world, nationalist ideologies have the freedom to evolve into more complex belief systems, presenting new challenges and opportunities for geopolitical forecasters.

The Effects of Modern Ideology on Forecasting and Analysis

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address at the Gostiny Dvor conference center in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 21, 2023. 

Over the past year, the Ukraine invasion has morphed into a costly and prolonged war that reflects Putin and his allies' perception of the world and Russia's place in it.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, One Year On

People walk on a pedestrian bridge that displays the numbers for the Shanghai Shenzhen stock indexes on Oct. 10, 2022, in Shanghai, China. 

Certain economic fundamentals will have outsized impacts on whether the Asian giant can escape the middle-income trap in the face of mounting systematic and demographic challenges.

China's Inflexible Financial System Amid a Declining Population

Pakistan

Pakistani Junior Finance Minister Aisha Ghaus Pasha said Saudi Arabia told the International Monetary Fund that it will provide external financing to Pakistan, Reuters reported on April 6.

Pakistan: Saudi Arabia's Financial Support Brings IMF Bailout One Step Closer

The Taliban-led acting government in Afghanistan asked spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid to shift his work base from the capital Kabul to Kandahar, a traditional founding place of the Taliban and supreme leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada's base of power, Al Jazeera reported on April 7.

Afghanistan: Taliban Spokesperson Told to Work From Kandahar in Potential Power Move by Supreme Leader

Tunisia

Tunisian President Kais Saied rejected economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a $1.9 billion loan to which it agreed in October 2022, Bloomberg reported on April 6.

Tunisia: Saied's Rejection of IMF Demands May Compromise IMF Deal

Israeli warplanes struck targets in Gaza and Lebanon linked to the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas, and the number of casualties is unclear, The Times of Israel reported on April 7.

Israel: Airstrikes in Gaza, Lebanon Raise Sectarian Tensions

Around 400,000 people took to the streets of Paris, France, to protest the government's proposed pension reform, compared with around 450,000 people the previous week, Euronews reported on April 6.

France: Slowing Anti-Government Protests Will Encourage Paris' Pension Reform Efforts

The director of the Crossroads of Civilizations Museum in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, shows visitors around the facility’s Holocaust Gallery on Jan. 11, 2023.

The many foreigners enrolled in Emirati schools will bring home new ideas about human rights that could eventually inspire political movements in countries like Egypt and Pakistan.

The Global Impact of the UAE Teaching the Holocaust in Schools

Ecuador

Venezuela

Syria

North Korea

Belgium

Netherlands

Seized marijuana bricks are incinerated in Guadalajara, Mexico.

While narco-states exist on a spectrum of severity, they can all have dramatic geopolitical, operational and tactical impacts that raise a wide variety of risks.

What Is a Narco-State, and Why Does It Matter?

Argentina

Bolivia

Chile

Cuba

Honduras

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

The leaders of Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Honduras, Mexico, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Venezuela met virtually and agreed to take steps to facilitate commercial trade, La Jornada reported April 5.

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko concluded two days of talks by holding a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State, where they discussed the fulfillment of Union State integration programs under their 2021-2023 agreement, The Washington Post reported on April 6.

Russia, Belarus: Putin and Lukashenko Hold Defense and Economic Integration Talks

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and 17 other U.S. lawmakers in California, United States, The Guardian reported on April 5.

Taiwan: As Tsai Meets McCarthy, Taiwan Strait Norms Shift Toward Confrontation

Georgia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the imposition of sanctions on four judges serving on Georgia's High Council of Justice for "significant corruption" that "undermined the rule of law and the public's faith in Georgia's judicial system," Civil Georgia reported on April 6.

Georgia: U.S. Sanctions Georgian Judges for Corruption

German insurers Allianz and Munich Re said they will not extend coverage for the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany and has been inoperable since a sabotage operation in September 2022, when it expires later in 2023, Reuters reported on April 6.

Germany: Munich Re, Allianz Will Not Extend Nord Stream 1 Insurance Coverage

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Taiwan Will Continue to Vex U.S.-China Ties, Despite Low-Key Tsai-McCarthy Visit

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Saudi Arabia's Financial Support Brings IMF Bailout One Step Closer

Afghanistan: Taliban Spokesperson Told to Work From Kandahar in Potential Power Move by Supreme Leader

Tunisia: Saied's Rejection of IMF Demands May Compromise IMF Deal

Israel: Airstrikes in Gaza, Lebanon Raise Sectarian Tensions

France: Slowing Anti-Government Protests Will Encourage Paris' Pension Reform Efforts

Latin America: Left-Wing Governments Ally to Reduce Food Inflation

Russia, Belarus: Putin and Lukashenko Hold Defense and Economic Integration Talks

Taiwan: As Tsai Meets McCarthy, Taiwan Strait Norms Shift Toward Confrontation

Georgia: U.S. Sanctions Georgian Judges for Corruption

Germany: Munich Re, Allianz Will Not Extend Nord Stream 1 Insurance Coverage

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