Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Israel

Cambodia

Spain

Russia

A vandalized billboard promoting Spain's far-right Vox party with an image of its leader is seen near Madrid on July 19, 2023. 

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Spain Holds a High-Stakes Election, African Leaders Visit Russia

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 20, 2023

Media

Thailand

Podcasts

Economics

Military & Security

Will Thailand's election winner be able to form a government?

Essential Geopolitics: Government Formation Gridlock in Thailand

Vietnam

A bank employee checks currency notes at a branch of VPBank in Hanoi, Vietnam, on June 29, 2023. Vietnam's economic growth slowed in the first half of the year as exports were hit by a slump in demand, authorities said June 29.

Energy

After years of rapid growth, Vietnam's recent slowdown is revealing its economic and institutional shortcomings, which may bode ill for the country's long-term development.

Falling Exports and Rising Temperatures Bog Down Vietnam's Economy

Europe

Italy

The Italian and EU flags are seen outside government buildings in Rome.

The changes would have a limited negative impact on Italy's economy, which suggests Rome's qualms are instead largely based on political calculations.

Understanding Italy's Opposition to Reforming the EU's Bailout Fund

Argentina

Anti-government protesters hold up the Argentine flag during a rally outside the presidential palace in Buenos Aires on July 9, 2022.

By offering a glimpse into the country's political future, the outcome of next month's vote could spook markets, spur mass protests and potentially even trigger a bank run.

Previewing Argentina's Presidential Primary

Turkey

Sweden

Now that Turkey's president has agreed to back Sweden's NATO accession, what does Ankara's relationship with Russia look like?

Essential Geopolitics: What Sweden's NATO Accession Process Says About Turkey-Russia Ties

Ukraine

The cargo ship Razoni, which departed from Ukraine's Odesa Port within the framework of the now-defunct Black Sea Grain Initiative, is pictured in the Bosphorus Strait on Aug. 3, 2022, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The impact on global food prices will likely be uneven, with poorer nations being hardest hit by the renewed interruptions to Ukrainian grain shipments.

The Implications of Russia’s Exit From the Black Sea Grain Deal

Romania

The Romanian flag is waved above a teachers' protest in Bucharest, Romania, on June 9, 2023. 

Policy disputes over how to address the country's mounting economic issues will make it hard for Bucharest to quell growing protests, combat inflation and avoid EU sanctions.

Romania's Divided Government Struggles To Reduce Its Fiscal Deficit

Americas

China

Smoke billows out of a coal-fired power plant in China. 

Environment, Science & Technology

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. Climate Envoy Visits China, Grain Deal Renewal Deadline Approaches

U.S.-China Relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 12, 2023.

The eleventh-hour decision reflects Turkey's careful balancing act as it seeks to secure Western investment and weapons deals without jeopardizing its close relationship with Russia.

What to Make of Turkey's Move to Unblock Sweden's NATO Bid

Latest

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Mali

Sudan

Libya

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

A 3D map of Turkey with a flag embedded into the planet's surface during sunrise.

How does Turkey's past influence its imperatives as a modern middle power?

The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey

Alberto Nunez Feijoo (center, white shirt), the leader of Spain's right-wing People's Party, gestures to supporters at a campaign rally in Burgos, Spain, on July 13, 2023.

If the July 23 vote yields a right-wing government as polls suggest, the risk of social unrest, Catalan secessionism and tense EU relations will increase.

Previewing Spain's General Election

Germany

Chinese shipping containers are seen at a seaport terminal in Duisburg, Germany, on July 13, 2023.

Berlin's long-awaited China strategy highlights growing operational, reputational and financial risks for German companies particularly exposed to the Asian giant.

Germany Sets Out on 'De-Risking' Its Relations With China

Snapshots

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping make a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on March 21, 2023.

The Wagner uprising won't weaken China's ties with Russia, though it will confirm Beijing's commitment to stifling political and military dissent at home.

The Specter of Wagner: What Russia's Political Instability Means for China

Members of Wagner Group on June 24, 2023, sit on a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don.

The dismantlement of Russia's Wagner Group will strengthen the Kremlin's ability to handle the war and conduct personnel changes that could impact Russia's strategy in Ukraine in the long run.

Putin Uses Prigozhin's 'Betrayal' to Strengthen His Grip on Russia

Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone's president, Julius Maada Bio, waves to his supporters upon arriving at a campaign rally in Freetown on June 20, 2023, ahead of the country's general election. 

The tight presidential race has fueled fears over a resurgence of violence. But the outcome of the June 24 vote is unlikely to affect the West African country's crucial agricultural and mining sectors.

Previewing Sierra Leone's Closely Contested General Election

Ireland

Ireland's foreign minister Micheal Martin (right), Irish Defence Forces chief Sean Clancy (left) and Brigadier General Tony Cudmore (center) meet Irish President Michael D. Higgins in Dublin, Ireland, on April 13, 2023. 

An ongoing debate over military neutrality is unlikely to see Ireland pursue NATO membership anytime soon, but that won't keep it from increasing its cooperation with the alliance.

Will Ireland Join NATO?

Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during the meeting between members of the 20th Politburo Standing Committee on Oct. 23, 2022, in Beijing, China. 

Recent developments suggest the Chinese president's preferred policies are underperforming, and that he's curbing information flows and wielding anti-corruption probes in response.


In China, Xi's Policy Woes Portend More Political Repression and Data Restrictions

River port flooding in Kherson on June 6, 2023, in Kherson, Ukraine, downstream from the Nova Kakhovka Dam. The major damage to the Nova Kakhovka Dam will force Ukraine to adjust but not fundamentally alter its emerging counteroffensive plans.

The incident will damage crop yields, flood Russian-occupied areas south of the Dnieper River and force Kyiv to adjust its emerging counteroffensive.

Gauging the Impact of the Kakhovka Dam Collapse in Ukraine

Moldova

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Qatar

Afghanistan

Qatar's then deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani (center), speaks during a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Washington D.C. on Feb. 10, 2023. 

Social Issues

The meeting suggests the Taliban may be willing to compromise on some issues, but such talks are unlikely to yield significant change in Afghanistan anytime soon. 

What to Make of the Rare Meeting Between the Taliban’s Leader and Qatar's Prime Minister

Columns

On Geopolitics

Nigeria

A busy street is seen in Lagos, Nigeria. 

The Nigerian state is unprepared to handle the impending population boom, which will likely spur massive overpopulation and underdevelopment in urban centers and inflame regional divides.

Africa's Population Boom: Nigeria

On Security

A protester holds a sign reading "I'm an eco-terrorised" during a rally to support the environmental movement Les Soulevements de la Terre (Uprisings of the Earth) near city hall in Paris, France, on June 21, 2023.

Eco-terrorism may rise alongside global temperatures, but it will face numerous constraints that limit its effectiveness.

Envisioning a New Eco-Terrorist Movement

Wagner mercenaries stand on the balcony of a building in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on June 24, 2023. 

While mercenaries' role in modern warfare may be shrinking, they will remain a key asset in conflicts that are important to the state but less so for the citizen.

Why the Wagner Revolt Won't Deter States From Deploying Mercenaries

An elderly man and woman are pushed in wheelchairs along a street in Beijing, China, on May 11, 2021.

External factors and geopolitics will further complicate the issues raised by China's demographic decline, particularly as the United States restricts emerging technologies critical to desired economic growth.

How Geopolitical Challenges Complicate China's Demographic Future

France

Protesters run from launched tear gas canisters during clashes with police in Marseille, southern France, on July 1, 2023, after a fourth consecutive night of rioting over the killing of a teenager by police. 

Grassroots protests, like those recently seen in France, often develop like a fire -- emerging from some tinder, sparked by a catalyst incident and then growing into a flame before eventually dying out.

Reflecting on the Riots in France: Why Some Protests Turn Violent

Austria

The director of Austria's intelligence agency (left) and the president of Vienna's state police hold a press conference on a foiled Vienna pride parade attack on June 18, 2023. 

The latest disruption in Vienna shows that Western counterterrorism personnel remain vigilant, but a loss of focus over time will lead to gaps that terrorists may exploit in the future.

What the Foiled Vienna Pride Parade Plot Suggests About the Islamist Threat to the West

Silvio Berlusconi leaves a polling station after voting in Italy's September 2022 snap election. The former prime minister died on June 12, 2023, at the age of 86.

The death of Italy's longest-serving prime minister marks the end of an era. But Berlusconi's legacy will live on through his enduring impact on Italian and European politics.

The Complex Legacy of Italy's Silvio Berlusconi

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center left, wearing a red tie) and his newly appointed cabinet members visit the Anıtkabir memorial site in Ankara, Turkey, on June 6, 2023.

To cement his legacy, Erdogan may be tempted to follow in Russia and Israel's footsteps by expanding Turkey's territory in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria and Cyprus.

A Final Term for Turkey's Erdogan in the Age of Annexation

India

India's Ministry of Consumer Affairs on July 20 announced an export ban on non-basmati white rice, the country's largest rice export category, in an attempt to ensure "adequate" domestic supplies and limit rising domestic prices.

India: Government Orders Major Rice Export Ban

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) head Nguyen Thi Hong agreed to establish a new economic policy dialogue between the SBV and the U.S. Treasury Department, the Hanoi Times reported on July 20.

U.S., Vietnam: Diplomatic Visit Expands Economic Cooperation

Russia's Central Bank increased its key interest rate by one percentage point to 8.5% in the first hike since the immediate aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, Bloomberg reported on July 21.

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Rate for First Time Since Invasion Aftermath

Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin was arrested on charges of extremism after he criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin's handling of the Ukraine invasion and called for a transfer of power, Reuters reported on July 21.

Russia: Ultranationalist Igor Girkin Detained Amid Crackdown

Mexico

Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE) announced that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would not be allowed to comment on the 2024 general elections, stating that his comments were in "violation of the principles of neutrality, impartiality and equity in the electoral contest," La Jornada reported on July 21.

Mexico: President Ordered to Refrain From Discussing 2024 Election

Poland

Former Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the leader of Poland's main opposition party Civic Platform (PO), called for fresh protests to be held on Oct. 1 against the country's controversial anti-abortion law, Bloomberg reported on July 20.

Poland: Opposition Calls for Fresh Anti-Government Protests Ahead of Fall Election

A Tibetan Buddhist woman stands on a hill overlooking the Labrang Monastery on March 2, 2018, in Gansu, China, the country's poorest province.

While eastern cities like Beijing may individually escape the middle-income trap, China's interior risks being left behind, which could impede the country's ability to overcome its demographic decline.

China's Geographic Divides Will Compound Its Demographic Challenge

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on May 3, 2023. 

Arab states are offering the Syrian president restored diplomacy in exchange for dismantling the warlord political model that helped him survive years of civil war. 

For Assad, Syria-Arab Normalization May Come With a Poisoned Chalice

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, Turkey's failed opposition presidential candidate and the head of the Republican People's Party (CHP), criticized a recent meeting led by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu during which Imamoglu called for an emergency convention to potentially unseat Kilicdaroglu, Hurriyet Daily News reported on July 21.

Turkey: CHP Old Guard Pushes Back Against Attempts to Swap Leadership

Iran

The United States is deploying a Marine expeditionary unit and an amphibious-ready group to the Middle East to deter Iran from seizing more tankers in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman, as well as boost the U.S. Navy's ability to intervene if a tanker issues a distress call, Politico reported on July 20.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Deploys More Naval Assets to Middle East to Combat Iranian Tanker Seizures

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's Parliament passed an anti-corruption bill to meet the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) conditions of the country's $2.9 billion bailout in March, AP reported on July 19. 

Sri Lanka: Parliament Approves Anti-Corruption Bill to Meet IMF Requirements

Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov proposed a new bill that would allow him to review and overrule rulings of the Constitutional Court on the basis of morality and ethical values, Eurasianet reported on July 19.

Kyrgyzstan: President Proposes Executive Review Powers on Constitutional Court Rulings

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Government Orders Major Rice Export Ban

U.S., Vietnam: Diplomatic Visit Expands Economic Cooperation

Russia: Central Bank Raises Key Rate for First Time Since Invasion Aftermath

Russia: Ultranationalist Igor Girkin Detained Amid Crackdown

Mexico: President Ordered to Refrain From Discussing 2024 Election

Poland: Opposition Calls for Fresh Anti-Government Protests Ahead of Fall Election

Turkey: CHP Old Guard Pushes Back Against Attempts to Swap Leadership

U.S., Iran: U.S. Deploys More Naval Assets to Middle East to Combat Iranian Tanker Seizures

Sri Lanka: Parliament Approves Anti-Corruption Bill to Meet IMF Requirements

Kyrgyzstan: President Proposes Executive Review Powers on Constitutional Court Rulings

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