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On Geopolitics

Europe

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

Assessments

United States

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Indonesia

Vietnam

Slovakia

Hungary

Russia

India

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Bangladesh

A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.

Economics

The transition from an interim administration will likely restore political stability, though social and fiscal pressures will still pose constraints for the new center-right government.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

The U.S. and the EU flags are seen side by side on Nov. 21, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium. 

Energy

By replacing Russian gas with U.S. LNG, the EU risks becoming reliant on another systemically central external supplier at a time of growing geopolitical instability and transatlantic tension.

The Strategic Risks of Europe's Pivot to U.S. LNG

Snapshots

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Cuba

Mexico

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Media

Podcasts

What major challenges will the incoming government face?

What To Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

Latest

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The national flag of Algeria flies near the Bay of Algiers against the backdrop of the old town known as the Casbah and cargo containers in Algiers, Algeria, on Aug. 25, 2022.

Divergences between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are poised to grow and may lead to a diplomatic break.

Algeria's Grievances With the UAE Deepen Amid Strategic Divergences

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

Iran

Lebanon

Yemen

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Turkey

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

China

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Feb. 17 Truth Social post Japan's first three investments under their July 2025 trade deal, including a gas power plant in Ohio, a crude oil export facility in Texas and a critical minerals facility in Georgia.

Japan, U.S.: Initial Three Investments an Early Sign of Trade Deal Stability

The Japanese government plans to revise guidelines during the spring Diet session (Feb. 18-July 17) to allow exports to third countries of weapons jointly developed with Japanese partners and allies, Asahi Shimbun sources reported on Feb. 18.

Japan: Government To Expand Arms Export Destinations

Guyana

Venezuela

Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez issued a statement on X on Feb. 17 regarding the country's dispute with neighboring Guyana over the Essequibo region, stating that the 1966 Geneva agreement is "the only legally valid instrument for achieving a mutually acceptable solution to the territorial dispute over Essequibo."

Venezuela, Guyana: President Rodriguez Issues Statement Regarding Essequibo Region

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed welcomed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Addis Ababa for a state visit, following which the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding to strengthen bilateral energy cooperation, CNBC Africa reported on Feb. 18. 

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Niger

During a meeting with Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tchiani vowed to initiate a "new dynamic" with Algeria and strengthen bilateral ties, Jeune Afrique reported on Feb. 17.

Niger, Algeria: Countries Relaunch Trans-Saharan Pipeline Plans Despite Jihadist Expansion

France

Spain

Science & Technology

French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to renew their bilateral defense cooperation framework for another decade, expand joint defense production, deepen interoperability, increase joint exercises and raise defense industrial integration, according to a Feb. 17 joint statement. 

France, Spain, India: Defense and Technology Cooperation Is Set To Deepen

Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte announced that she will seek the presidency in 2028, and she renewed accusations of corruption and misrule against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., AP reported on Feb. 18.

Philippines: Vice President Announces Presidential Run Amid Impeachment Proceedings 

The Indonesian government launched a sweeping review of mining and plantation permits, saying many were improperly issued, and has now seized more than 4 million hectares of land while imposing fines totaling $1.7 billion, AP reported on Feb. 18.

Indonesia: Government Seizes Nickel Assets Amid EV Market Shift

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Hezbollah rejected the Lebanese government's four-month timeline for the militant and political group to disarm, with Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Kassem saying disarmament would only serve Israel's interests, Reuters reported on Feb. 17. 

Lebanon: Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Calls Again

Peru

Peru's Congress voted to remove interim President Jose Jeri from office over corruption and influence peddling allegations, AP reported on Feb. 17.

Peru: Congress Removes Interim President Jose Jeri

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Japan, U.S.: Initial Three Investments an Early Sign of Trade Deal Stability

Japan: Government To Expand Arms Export Destinations

Venezuela, Guyana: President Rodriguez Issues Statement Regarding Essequibo Region

Ethiopia: Abiy Meets Erdogan Amid Major Military Buildup Near Tigray

Niger, Algeria: Countries Relaunch Trans-Saharan Pipeline Plans Despite Jihadist Expansion

France, Spain, India: Defense and Technology Cooperation Is Set To Deepen

Philippines: Vice President Announces Presidential Run Amid Impeachment Proceedings

Indonesia: Government Seizes Nickel Assets Amid EV Market Shift

Lebanon: Hezbollah Rejects Disarmament Calls Again

Peru: Congress Removes Interim President Jose Jeri

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