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Israel

Palestinian Territories

Podcasts

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

What is the significance of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's killing, and what role did he play in the organization?

Essential Geopolitics: The Trajectory of the Israel-Hamas War

Assessments

United States

Iran

Iraq

Qatar

Moldova

The first day of early voting in the Nov. 5 U.S. election Oct. 21, 2024, in Stamford, Connecticut. U.S. voters will select a new president, 435 representatives, 34 senators, and any number of state and municipal officials Nov. 5.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: America Votes, Qatar's Constitutional Referendum

Global Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 31, 2024

Columns

On Geopolitics

North Korea

South Korea

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Zambia

China

Workers move batches of copper sheets on July 6, 2016, in Mufulira, Zambia. Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Economics

Zambia's copper output will likely steadily increase by the late 2020s on the back of a more stable tax environment and a global rush for critical minerals, but the country faces an uphill battle to meet its 2032 copper production target.

Zambia Banks on the Green Rush for Copper 

A digital illustration shows a map of the United States.

Cyber

The tight race and its perceived existential stakes portend further violent threats in the days leading up to and after the Nov. 5 election.

The U.S. Braces for a Turbulent – and Potentially Violent – End to the Election

Philippines

A U.S. amphibious assault ship takes part in a joint U.S.-Philippines military exercise on the shores of San Antonio town, facing the South China Sea, on April 11, 2019. 

Like Biden, Harris would likely see the Philippines as a key partner in regional efforts to counter China, while Trump would likely adopt a more transactional, bilateral approach that could either strengthen or strain ties with Manila.

How Might the U.S. Presidential Election Impact Ties With the Philippines?

U.S.-China Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Despite the growing convergence between water stress and climate finance, water-related finance and investment will continue to lag, exacerbating water stress challenges in many developing countries.

Water Stress Isn't Drawing Enough Climate Investments

The Geopolitics of Water

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a plenary session at the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. 

A weaker government will slow policymaking on key economic and defense issues, and could return Japan to a period of revolving-door prime ministers.

Japan's LDP Loses Its Majority in Snap Ballot, Portending Policy Gridlock

Snapshots

Georgia

Opposition supporters rally to protest results from the parliamentary elections Oct. 28 outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgian Dream's claimed victory in the parliamentary election will commence a prolonged protest movement and potential political crisis.

Georgia's Protest Movement Faces an Uphill Battle After Parliamentary Elections

Pakistan

Pakistan's president administers the oath of office to Justice Yahya Afridi as Afridi is sworn in as chief justice in Islamabad on Oct. 26, 2024.

The reform will allow the government to appoint Supreme Court justices who support its agenda, weakening judicial independence while likely fueling political tensions and protests.

The Implications of Pakistan's Controversial Judicial Reform

Latest

Mexico

National Action Party Sen. Miguel Angel Yunes Linares (L) addresses lawmakers in the legislature's upper house about the judicial reform proposed by the government in Congress in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sept. 10, 2024. 

Energy

Social Issues

A series of interventionist constitutional reforms is putting Mexico's private sector on edge, but global de-risking will likely continue to attract foreign investment in the long term.

Interventionist Constitutional Reforms Unlikely To Deter Foreign Investment in Mexico 

Europe

A digital illustration of a 100 euro banknote.

Without a common deposit insurance scheme, the so-called sovereign-banking nexus renders the euro area more vulnerable than it needs to be.

The Risks of the Eurozone's Incomplete Financial Integration

Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (R) and his Vietnamese counterpart Phan Van Gang, meet at the Pentagon in Washington D.C. on Sept. 9, 2024. 

Trump is more likely to impose tariffs to minimize the trade deficit, while Harris is more likely to call for supply chain decoupling from China -- either of which could strain U.S.-Vietnam ties.

What a Trump vs. Harris Presidency Would Mean for Vietnam

India

Indian soldiers walk along a road near the Zojila mountain pass that connects to Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. 

While their recent efforts to ease bilateral tensions will probably reduce the risk of border clashes, deep-seated mistrust between the two strategic rivals will very likely limit the scope of any reconciliation. 

After a Tense Few Years, India and China Try To Turn Down the Heat

Syria

A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.

Israel's long-awaited response to Iran's Oct. 1 strike proves restrained, limiting the risk of all-out war.

Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response

Cameroon

Cameroonian President Paul Biya (left), and his wife Chantal Biya (left) watch a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023. 

The end of the aging president's 42-year reign will leave a power vacuum that could engulf the country in crisis as various factions within the ruling elite, opposition parties and militants scramble to secure their interests. 

Cameroon Braces for Volatility Amid Concerns About President Biya's Health

Ukraine

Russia

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Canada

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

Germany

France

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

Lebanon

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

After approval by the Senate and National Assembly, the acting president signed six bills, notably including measures to increase the number of Supreme Court judges, amend Supreme Court procedures and administrative practices, and extend the terms of military chiefs from three to five years, Geo News reported on Nov. 5. 

Pakistan: Acting President Signs Six Bills into Law Regarding the Supreme Court and Army Chiefs' Terms

Saudi Arabia

The United States and Saudi Arabia are reportedly discussing a bilateral security agreement separate from the stalled mega-deal that includes a bilateral defense pact, Axios reported on Nov. 4. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

Hamas and Fatah have reportedly agreed to form a joint committee to govern Gaza to facilitate humanitarian aid distribution and reconstruction following the latest round of negotiations in Egypt, though details of the agreement are unknown, The New Arab reported Nov. 4, citing a senior Hamas source.

Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree to Form Joint Committee to Administer Gaza

United Kingdom

Western security officials suspect two incendiary devices found in July at DHL facilities in the United Kingdom and Germany were tests for a Russian-backed operation to send similar devices aboard planes bound for the United States and Canada, The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 4.

U.S., Canada: Russia Accused of Testing Incendiary Devices To Send Aboard Planes Destined for North America

Benin

Chad

Niger

Nigeria

Chad's interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby threatened to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force, or MNJTF, due to what he described as a failure to combat insurgent groups in the Lake Chad region effectively, Reuters reported on Nov. 4.

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

Incumbent pro-European President Maia Sandu won Moldova's presidential runoff, winning 55.33% to pro-Russian candidate Alexandru Stoianoglo's 44.67%, BBC reported on Nov. 4.

Moldova: Sandu Wins by Comfortable Margin Despite Losing Inside Moldova

Iran reportedly plans to conduct its "strong and complex" response to Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iran after the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election to avoid election interference, The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 3, citing Iranian and Arab officials.

Iran, Israel: Iran Reportedly To Attack Israel After U.S. Presidential Election

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Venezuela

Algeria

Kuwait

Libya

United Arab Emirates

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Science & Technology

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

The Israel Defense Forces announced it had conducted a ground raid into Syria's Daraa province "in recent months," where it captured an Iranian-linked operative named Ali Soleiman al-Assi, NBC reported on Nov. 3.

MENA: Israel Captures Iranian and Hezbollah Operatives in Syria, Lebanon

Spain

A crowd threw mud at Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Valencian regional president Carlos Mazon, King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia during their visit to the Valencian town of Paiporta, the epicenter of deadly floods in eastern Spain that have killed at least 217 people, El Pais reported on Nov. 3.

Spain: Discontent Grows Alongside Death Toll From Flash Floods

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Interventionist Constitutional Reforms Unlikely To Deter Foreign Investment in Mexico

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Acting President Signs Six Bills into Law Regarding the Supreme Court and Army Chiefs' Terms

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Governments Discuss Bilateral Security Agreement

Palestinian Territories: Hamas and Fatah Agree to Form Joint Committee to Administer Gaza

U.S., Canada: Russia Accused of Testing Incendiary Devices To Send Aboard Planes Destined for North America

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

Moldova: Sandu Wins by Comfortable Margin Despite Losing Inside Moldova

Iran, Israel: Iran Reportedly To Attack Israel After U.S. Presidential Election

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

MENA: Israel Captures Iranian and Hezbollah Operatives in Syria, Lebanon

Spain: Discontent Grows Alongside Death Toll From Flash Floods

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