Assessments

Chile

Uruguay

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

United Kingdom

Georgia

Protesters hold Georgian flags during a pro-Europe rally in Tbilisi ahead of Georgia's parliamentary elections on Oct. 20, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Key Elections in Georgia and Japan, Efforts to Resume Gaza Cease-Fire Talks

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Cambodia

China

Laos

Thailand

Vietnam

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

Amid pressing energy and geopolitical needs, the accelerating construction of upstream dams will exacerbate the Mekong River region's water shortages and environmental degradation.

National Interests Sideline Environmental Concerns in the Mekong River Region

The Geopolitics of Water

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (center) waves as he arrives for a campaign rally at Onahama Port in Iwaki, Japan, on Oct. 15, 2024. 

Still reeling from a slush fund scandal, the ruling party and its coalition partner are set to lose seats but remain in power, portending slow and arduous policymaking in the years ahead.

Japan's Snap Elections Set To Weaken the LDP's Governing Capacity

Global Elections

Yemen

Smoke billows from a fire at oil storage tanks in Hodeidah, Yemen, a day after Israeli strikes hit the city’s port on July 21, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Resource and geographical constraints will deter Israel from launching a sustained campaign against Houthis in Yemen, which will only risk emboldening the group.

Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen Are Unlikely To Turn Into a Bigger Anti-Houthi Campaign

Columns

On Geopolitics

Germany

France

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 24, 2024

Snapshots

Cameroon

Cameroonian President Paul Biya (left), and his wife Chantal Biya (left) watch a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023. 

The end of the aging president's 42-year reign will leave a power vacuum that could engulf the country in crisis as various factions within the ruling elite, opposition parties and militants scramble to secure their interests. 

Cameroon Braces for Volatility Amid Concerns About President Biya's Health

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

Russia

The Hywind Tampen floating offshore wind farm, situated between energy company Equinor's oil and gas fields Snorre and Gullfaks in the Norwegian North Sea off the coast of Bergen.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The likelihood of Russian attacks targeting Europe's offshore energy infrastructure is increasing, but Moscow is likely to avoid actions that could cause major disruptions.

Russia's Increasingly Aggressive Sabotage Threatens Europe's Offshore Energy Network

Lebanon

A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment. 

A long war of attrition would likely favor Hezbollah, though Israel could still emerge victorious if it sustains enough domestic and international support for its military campaign in Lebanon.

How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?

Media

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Turkey

Graphics

Members of the Kurdish peshmerga security forces queue at a polling station to vote ahead of the Oct. 20 parliamentary election in Arbil, the capital of Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, on Oct. 18, 2024. 

Following belated parliamentary elections in Iraqi Kurdistan, explore the most prominent Kurdish groups in the Middle East.

Iraqi Kurdistan's Parliamentary Elections Highlight Two Major Kurdish Groups in the Middle East

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Latest

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives for a plenary session at the lower house of parliament on Oct. 9, 2024, in Tokyo, Japan. 

A weaker government will slow policymaking on key economic and defense issues, and could return Japan to a period of revolving-door prime ministers.

Japan's LDP Loses Its Majority in Snap Ballot, Portending Policy Gridlock

Pakistan

Pakistan's president administers the oath of office to Justice Yahya Afridi as Afridi is sworn in as chief justice in Islamabad on Oct. 26, 2024.

The reform will allow the government to appoint Supreme Court justices who support its agenda, weakening judicial independence while likely fueling political tensions and protests.

The Implications of Pakistan's Controversial Judicial Reform

Opposition supporters rally to protest results from the parliamentary elections Oct. 28 outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgian Dream's claimed victory in the parliamentary election will commence a prolonged protest movement and potential political crisis.

Georgia's Protest Movement Faces an Uphill Battle After Parliamentary Elections

A general view of Tehran after several explosions amid an Israeli attack were heard there Oct. 26, 2024.

Israel's long-awaited response to Iran's Oct. 1 strike proves restrained, limiting the risk of all-out war.

Israel's Measured Attack on Iran Calibrated to Avoid a Response

Moldova

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Canada

India

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Europe

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Cyber

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani said Tehran proposed a 200% increase in defense spending in the 2025 budget, Reuters reported on Oct. 29.

Iran: Government Plans To Boost Defense Spending by 200%

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Public Investment Fund Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan said at the Future Investment Initiative conference that the $930 billion PIF would aim to reduce the share of international projects in its investment portfolio from 30% in 2020 and 21% currently to 18%-20%, the Financial Times reported on Oct. 29. 

Saudi Arabia: Sovereign Wealth Fund To Focus Portfolio on More Domestic Assets

The Lebanese political and militant group Hezbollah has announced that Naim Kassem, the deputy leader of Hezbollah, will be Hassan Nasrallah's successor following the Sept. 27 Israeli assassination of the former Hezbollah leader, BBC reported Oct. 29.

Lebanon: Hezbollah Selects Naim Kassem as Nasrallah's Successor

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The U.S. Treasury Department published on Oct. 29 its final rule on its outbound investment screening mechanism that will ban certain U.S. investments in other countries' quantum technologies, artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.

U.S., China: U.S. Publishes Final Rule on Outbound Investment Screening Mechanism

Philippines

The Philippine Senate launched a probe into former President Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 28.

Philippines: Probe Into Drug War Could Affect Midterms, Foreign Policy

Leftist challenger Yamandu Orsi from the opposition Frente Amplio received the most votes in the first round of Uruguay's presidential election on Oct. 27 but fell short of a simple majority, meaning he will face Alvaro Delgado from the ruling Partido Nacional in a runoff race on Nov. 27, Reuters reported on Oct. 28.

Uruguay: Election Unlikely To Fuel Political Instability or Regulatory Volatility

Spain

On his first visit to India, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez inaugurated India's first private military aircraft plant alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 28.

India, Spain: Sanchez and Modi Inaugurate India's First Private Military Aircraft Plant

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Senegal

The campaign season for Senegal’s Nov. 17 snap legislative elections officially began, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 27.

Senegal: Campaign Season for Legislative Elections Officially Begins

Lithuania

Lithuania's Social Democratic Party, or SD, won the most votes in the two rounds of parliamentary elections held on Oct. 13 and Oct. 27, gaining control of 52 seats in the 141-seat parliament, Reuters reported on Oct. 27, citing official results from the run-off vote.

Lithuania: Center-Left Opposition Social Democratic Party Wins Parliamentary Elections

Sudan

Civil society groups accused Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, of killing at least 124 civilians and wounding 200 others in Al Sireiha, Jazeera state, Sudan Tribune reported on Oct. 27.

Sudan: Killings in Jazeera State Portend Escalation in Violence

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Japan's LDP Loses Its Majority in Snap Ballot, Portending Policy Gridlock

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Iran: Government Plans To Boost Defense Spending by 200%

Saudi Arabia: Sovereign Wealth Fund To Focus Portfolio on More Domestic Assets

Lebanon: Hezbollah Selects Naim Kassem as Nasrallah's Successor

U.S., China: U.S. Publishes Final Rule on Outbound Investment Screening Mechanism

Philippines: Probe Into Drug War Could Affect Midterms, Foreign Policy

Uruguay: Election Unlikely To Fuel Political Instability or Regulatory Volatility

India, Spain: Sanchez and Modi Inaugurate India's First Private Military Aircraft Plant

Senegal: Campaign Season for Legislative Elections Officially Begins

Lithuania: Center-Left Opposition Social Democratic Party Wins Parliamentary Elections

Sudan: Killings in Jazeera State Portend Escalation in Violence

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