Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

Denmark

France

Italy

Ukraine

Russia

The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 19, 2026

Malaysia

A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.

While fuel subsidies have so far cushioned the impact, if the Iran-related energy disruptions persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support before the next election.

Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda

Japan

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.

Global Trade

The Japanese prime minister may offer economic and security concessions during her upcoming summit with the U.S. president to avoid direct entanglement in the Iran conflict while preserving the relationship with Washington.

Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit

Europe

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. 

A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships from Iranian attacks would likely begin only after the war's intensity decreases, and even then, it would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited return of maritime traffic through the strait.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

China

A large plume of smoke rises March 7 over Tehran after explosions were reported in the Iranian capital during the night.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Takaichi Meets With Trump

Media

Podcasts

What will happen to U.S. interest rates if the war continues?

The Decision Advantage: Economic Impacts of the War on Iran

Latest

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Greenland

Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.

The upcoming parliamentary elections could result in three distinct coalitions that would offer varying continuity in domestic economic policy and Copenhagen's approach to U.S. pressure over Greenland.

Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Snapshots

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Mexico

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

The Afghan Taliban released Dennis Coyle, a U.S. academic the group had detained since January 2025 for unspecified reasons, The New York Times reported on March 24. 

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the United States still needed to finalize an agreement on security guarantees, despite earlier claims that it was ready, Reuters reported on March 24.

Ukraine, U.S.: Security Guarantee Talks Stall as Iran War Diverts U.S. Focus

Science & Technology

NASA announced on March 24 that it plans to spend $20 billion over the next seven years to develop a lunar base on the surface of the moon and will pause plans to build the Gateway space station that would have orbited the moon and served as a ferrying point for manned missions to the lunar surface.

U.S.: NASA Unveils New $20B Spending Plan, Including Development of Lunar Base 

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military will occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, marking the first clear indication of Israel's intent to seize territory amounting to nearly a 10th of Lebanon, Reuters reported on March 24. 

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Announces Intent To Expand Occupation of Southern Lebanon 

Vietnam

Vietnam and Russia signed an agreement to build the Ninh Thuan 1 nuclear power plant in Vietnam, with Russia's Rosatom slated to construct reactors with a total capacity of roughly 2,400 megawatts, Bloomberg reported on March 24.

Vietnam, Russia: Nuclear Energy Deal Formalizes Revival of Long-Stalled Project

Philippines

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said energy supply risks stemming from the war in the Middle East could spur renewed discussions with China on joint energy development in the South China Sea, Bloomberg reported on March 24.

Philippines, China: Energy Pressures Drive Talks, Temporary Calm in the South China Sea

The European Union and Australia agreed on the final test of a long-delayed free trade agreement, eliminating tariffs on most goods and expanding Australian agricultural access to European markets and European industrial and manufactured goods access to Australia, alongside provisions to facilitate critical minerals trade, AP reported on March 24.

Australia, EU: Strategic Alignment Deepens With Trade Pact and Defense Deal

Several unnamed Israeli officials have indicated that a potential agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely, although Pakistan offered to host negotiations as early as late in the week of March 23 to de-escalate the conflict, Reuters reported on March 24. 

U.S., Iran: Israeli Officials Say U.S.-Iran Deal Remains Unlikely, but Pakistan Offers To Host Talks

Chile

Chile's government announced it will hike gasoline prices by 41% and diesel prices by 54% effective March 26, La Tercera reported on March 24.

Chile: Fuel Price Increase To Raise Inflation and Drive Unrest

Nigeria

The United States is operating MQ-9 Reaper drones in Nigeria in a strictly non-combat reconnaissance role, supporting Nigerian forces against jihadist groups, RFI reported on March 22.

Nigeria: U.S. Operates MQ-9 'Reaper' Drones in Nigeria for Intelligence Support

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.
