Assessments

United States

Israel

Saudi Arabia

China

Indonesia

Ukraine

India

A door at the U.N. headquarters Sept. 15, 2023, in New York ahead of the 78th session of the General Assembly. The 78th U.N. General Assembly will occur Sept. 18-26 against a backdrop of deepening global divisions.

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.N. General Assembly, Zelensky's U.S. Visit

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 14, 2023

Columns

On Geopolitics

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

Economics

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Snapshots

Colombia

Costa Rica

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Social Issues

Strained government resources, increased organized crime, political tensions and supply chain disruptions are likely to rise in tandem with migration.

How Record Migration Will Impact Central America

Europe

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Malta

Germany

Finland

Latvia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Greece

France

Estonia

Sweden

Belgium

Portugal

Poland

Cyprus

Austria

Slovakia

Slovenia

Netherlands

Spain

Italy

Hungary

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

Morocco

Earthquake rescue operations Sept. 11, 2023, in the mountainous area of Tizi n-Test, Taroudant province, Morocco.

The quake will harm growth into 2024, potentially forcing the government out and slowing the country's fiscal consolidation.

The Moroccan Earthquake's Economic and Political Fallout

Australia

Vietnam

UAW members striking Oct. 25, 2019, outside the GM Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant in Detroit. With the United Auto Workers' labor contract with Detroit's Big Three automakers expiring at 11:59 p.m. on Sept. 14, 2023, labor negotiations remain turbulent.

The Weekly Rundown: LNG Strikes in Australia, Biden Visits Vietnam

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Regional leaders pose for a group photo before the ASEAN-Australia summit, held as part of the 43rd ASEAN summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Sept. 7, 2023. From left to right stand the Philippines' President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Thailand's Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sarun Charoensuwan, Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indonesia's President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone, Brunei's Prime Minister Hassanal Bolkiah, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and East Timor's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao.

ASEAN's most recent summit underscored chronic passivity within the bloc that will only worsen in 2024. 

Amid ASEAN's Inaction, the Block's Members Look to External Partners for Security

U.S.-China Relations

Russia

A worker decorates a G20 installation on the eve of the two-day G20 summit in New Delhi on September 8, 2023.

With the G20 summit taking place in India this weekend, many of the organization's growing problems come to the fore as the shifting world order limits economic and geopolitical cooperation.

Forged Twice in Crisis, the G20 May Not Be Ready To Keep Up With a Changing Global Order

Media

Podcasts

How will the recent controversy surrounding Morena's presidential nomination process impact Mexico's 2024 election?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Mexico's Ruling Morena Party

Latest

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 7, 2023

A computer-generated image released by the European Space Agency (ESA) in April 2008 shows trackable objects in orbit around Earth. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Earthbound rivalries will impede cooperation in removing the growing amount of debris in low orbit, raising the risk of collisions with spacecraft and satellites.

Reassessing the Risk of Space Debris Amid the Great Power Competition

An American Labor Party political poster in support of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Herbert H. Lehman. 

The 4th Industrial Revolution

In honor of Labor Day, Stratfor takes a look back at employment conditions and union movements through the decades with a selection of historical photographs.

Labor Protests: A Visual Anthology

Kenya

Turkey

Vehicles drive past the logo of the G-20 Summit on Aug. 10, 2023, in New Delhi.

The Weekly Rundown: The Africa Climate Summit, the G-20 Summit in New Delhi

Japan

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (center) attends an executive meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Sept. 13, 2023, ahead of an expected Cabinet reshuffle.

Japan's Cabinet reshuffle may facilitate new stimulus and improve the ruling party's popularity, but hard economic challenges loom.

In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A member of the Red Crescent shows bags of flour on Aug. 30, 2023, in Aghdam, Azerbaijan. 

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to remain high, although a return to large-scale war remains unlikely. 

Azerbaijan Maintains the Upper Hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Guatemala

Police officers remain at the entrance of the Electoral Process Operations Center during government raids in Guatemala City on Sept. 12, 2023.

If political elites overturn Guatemala's election results, unrest and weaker relations with international partners will follow.

More Raids Threaten to Undermine Guatemala's Democracy

A farm worker packs sacks of rice at a mill in Senegal on Oct. 27, 2022. Africa is a major rice importer, while India, one of the world’s main rice producers, recently announced restrictions on its exports. 

To reduce food prices ahead of 2024 elections, New Delhi will likely ban more exports of agricultural products like rice, exacerbating global food shortages.

The Implications of India's Pursuit of Protectionist Trade Policies

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

Georgia

Demonstrators wave a flag of Georgia in Europe Square on June 20, 2022 in Tbilisi, Georgia.

The ruling party's recent move to impeach the country's pro-EU president acutely illustrates how Georgia's complex domestic politics complicate predictions of its geopolitical trajectory.

Deep Divisions Set the Tone For Georgia's Geopolitical Future

Cars shimmer in the heat haze near Death Valley National Park in California on July 16, 2023, a day that saw temperatures rise past about 127 degrees Fahrenheit. The highest temperature reliably recorded on Earth was 129.2 F in Death Valley in 2013. 

As people move to new areas in response to the economic and physical risks posed by climate change, they'll slowly alter the location of the American heartland and impact U.S. foreign policy.

The Wider Implications of Climate Migration in the U.S.

Taiwan

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) leaders' summit on Sept. 16, 2022.

The U.S., the EU, Russia and India are all holding votes next year that will be marked by nationalist populism, portending more policy uncertainty, domestic strife and international conflict.

The Four 2024 Elections That Will Shape the Second Half of the Decade

On Security

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Members of Syria's top jihadist group, the al Quada-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, parade through the city of Idlib on Aug. 20, 2021, in celebration of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan.

The deprioritization of global counterterrorism efforts could create opportunities for al Qaeda and the Islamic State if they can overcome their divisions and clearly define an enemy.

The Future of Jihadism in a Multipolar World

Dominican Republic

Haiti

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader announced that his country would indefinitely close all borders with Haiti starting on Sept. 15, Reuters reported on Sept. 14.

Dominican Republic, Haiti: Border Closure to Disrupt Travel, Trade

Sudan

The leader of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) threatened to set up "civilian rule" in the areas under the RSF's control with Khartoum as its "capital," Radio Dabanga reported on Sept. 15.

Sudan: RSF Floats Governing Authority in Khartoum

The European Parliament approved its final position on the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), a package of measures the European Commission proposed in March to increase the bloc's access to secure and affordable supplies of critical raw materials, Euractiv reported on Sept. 14.

EU: European Parliament Approves Text for Critical Raw Materials Act

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced plans to raise the country's minimum wage by 18%, reaching 4,242 zlotys ($983) in January 2024 and then 4,300 zlotys from July, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 14.

Poland: Government Announces Minimum Wage Rise Ahead of General Elections

Foreigners wait outside the immigration office in Berlin, Germany, for assistance in regulating their legal residency status on Feb. 6, 2020.

Berlin’s bid to expand citizenship could help attract the foreign workers Germany needs to offset the fallout from its aging population. But it risks fueling the rise of far-right parties in the process.

Germany's Push to Plug Its Labor Shortages With Foreigners Risks Backfiring

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 31, 2023

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Rescuers use a crane to dismantle the rubble of a building destroyed by a Russian shelling on Aug. 8, 2023, in Pokrovsk, Ukraine. 

Western governments are considering paying for Ukraine's reconstruction with the Russian central bank assets they froze in Feb. 2022, which would have myriad legal, economic and strategic consequences.

The Implications of Using Frozen Russian Assets To Rebuild Ukraine

Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for two weeks, missing defense meetings with Vietnam and Singapore, Hong Kong Free Press reported on Sept. 14.

China: Defense Minister's Absence Sparks Rumors of More Turnover

The U.S. State and Treasury Departments unveiled 150 new targets of sanctions to strengthen Washington's economic isolation campaign against Russia, Euronews reported on Sept. 14.

U.S.: More Sanctions Aim to Increase Russia's Isolation

Bangladesh

Cyber

Bangladesh's Parliament passed the 2023 Cyber Security Act (CSA), replacing the controversial Digital Security Act (DSA), which aimed to prevent hate speech and the spread of terrorist propaganda, The Daily Star reported on Sept. 13.

Bangladesh: Cyber Security Act 2023 Passed in Parliament

Oman

Yemen

Omani delegates and representatives of Yemen's rebel Houthi group are reportedly heading to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss a cease-fire, Reuters reported on Sept. 14.

Yemen: Houthis, Omani Intermediaries Visit Riyadh to Discuss Cease-Fire

South Korea

The Korean Rail Workers' Union (KRWU) launched a four-day strike on Sept. 14, set to last through 9 a.m. on Sept. 18, Yonhap News Agency reported on Sept. 14.

South Korea: Rail Strike Indicative of Yoon's Long-Term Labor Stance

The president of the U.S. United Auto Workers (UAW) union threatened to escalate strike action if the three largest automakers in Detroit, Michigan, (General Motors, Ford and Stellantis) do not agree to raise wages by 11:59 p.m. on Sept. 14, CNN reported on Sept. 14.

U.S.: Autoworkers Prepare to Strike as Deadline Nears

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

In Japan, Kishida's Cabinet Reshuffle Is Intended to Facilitate a Snap Election

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Dominican Republic, Haiti: Border Closure to Disrupt Travel, Trade

Sudan: RSF Floats Governing Authority in Khartoum

EU: European Parliament Approves Text for Critical Raw Materials Act

Poland: Government Announces Minimum Wage Rise Ahead of General Elections

China: Defense Minister's Absence Sparks Rumors of More Turnover

U.S.: More Sanctions Aim to Increase Russia's Isolation

Bangladesh: Cyber Security Act 2023 Passed in Parliament

Yemen: Houthis, Omani Intermediaries Visit Riyadh to Discuss Cease-Fire

South Korea: Rail Strike Indicative of Yoon's Long-Term Labor Stance

U.S.: Autoworkers Prepare to Strike as Deadline Nears

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