Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 10, 2025

Europe

Georgia

Russia

Georgian anti-government demonstrators attempt to block a highway entrance to the capital Tbilisi on Feb. 2, 2025

Military & Security

Politics

The government's efforts to suppress the opposition risk roiling its relations with the West, triggering more mass protests, and potentially enabling Russia to expand its influence in Georgia.

Georgia's Crackdown on Dissent Risks Drawing It Closer to Russia and Alienating the West

Snapshots

Lithuania

Germany

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Economics

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Columns

On Geopolitics

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Brazil

France

United Kingdom

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Netanyahu's U.S. Visit, a Franco-British Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

China

Energy

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Vietnam

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pham Thu Hang answers reporters' questions about the new Vietnam-U.S. trade deal during a press conference in Hanoi on July 3, 2025. 

The deal reduces planned U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, but the lack of key details also introduces significant compliance uncertainty and investment risks that could ripple across Asian supply chains. 

The Vietnam-U.S. Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, but the Devil Is in the Details

Cambodia

Thailand

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) speaks next to Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai (2nd from left) during a press conference in Bangkok following her suspension by the country's Constitutional Court on July 1, 2025. 

Paetongtarn's suspension from office over a leaked phone call with Cambodia's former leader risks collapsing her fragile government and inviting more economic disruption amid U.S. trade tensions.

A Fresh Political Crisis Erupts in Thailand Following Prime Minister's Suspension

Armenia

Azerbaijan

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 3, 2025

Latest

A collapsed water tank painted with the Lebanese flag is seen in the ruins of a village in southern Lebanon, located near the border with Israel, on Jan. 7, 2025.

Ahead of Lebanon's 2026 election, Hezbollah will try to portray itself as a nationalist resistance movement rather than an Iranian proxy, but the risk of renewed conflict with Israel will persist unless the group disarms. 

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand 

Japan

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

Japan's upper house elections will determine whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will stay in power and -- if so -- how easily it will be able to pursue its key policy goals.

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama looks on as offerings presented by Buddhist followers are laid on a table during a Long Life Prayer offering ceremony at the Main Tibetan Temple in McLeod Ganj, near the Indian city of Dharamshala, on June 30, 2025. 

Social Issues

New clarity over the 90-year-old spiritual leader's succession plans threatens to reignite Western criticism of China's treatment of Tibetans and revive reputational risks for Western businesses active in China.

Dalai Lama's Succession Plan Revives Tibet Issue for China and the West

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier works on an Avenger AN/TWQ-1 anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine.

Without new supplies of U.S. Patriot interceptors and precision-guided munitions, Ukraine will struggle to defend against Russia's escalating aerial attacks, which could eventually force it into an unfavorable peace deal.

Ukraine Grapples With a Freeze on U.S. Weapons Deliveries

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) speaks during a peace agreement signing ceremony between Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner (R) and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe in the Treaty Room of the State Department in Washington, D.C., on June 27, 2025. 

The peace agreement opens Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo up to significant economic opportunities, but disagreements over interpretation and continued proxy violence risk stalling the deal’s implementation.

A Fragile Peace Takes Shape Between Congo and Rwanda

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Syria

Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said the country will resort to its economic reciprocity law to retaliate against the 50% tariff U.S. President Donald Trump announced would begin Aug. 1, Folha de S.Paulo reported on July 9. 

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

Sri Lanka

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs set to take effect in August, with Sri Lanka facing a 30% rate, down from the 44% initially proposed in April, Reuters reported on July 10. 

Sri Lanka: Trump Announces 30% Tariff on Sri Lanka

Mozambique

Science & Technology

Northern Mozambique, particularly Cabo Delgado province, is facing a worsening humanitarian crisis driven by insurgent violence, mass displacement and the aftermath of recent cyclones, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Club of Mozambique reported on July 9. 

Mozambique: U.N. Warns of Worsening Humanitarian Crisis in Cabo Delgado

Vietnam is preparing a decree to impose stricter penalties for trade fraud and illegal transshipments, particularly targeting Chinese-origin goods falsely labeled as Vietnamese to bypass U.S. tariffs, Reuters reported on July 10.

Vietnam: Hanoi Tightens Transshipment Enforcement To Appease U.S.

Brunei Darussalam

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

China pledged to sign the 1997 Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty "without reservation," according to Malaysia's foreign minister, Reuters reported on July 10. 

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

U.S. President Donald Trump said Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame would sign a U.S.-brokered peace deal between the two countries at the White House by the end of July, Radio Okapi reported on July 10.

Congo, Rwanda: Peace Deal Nears Finalization, Kinshasa Gears Up for New Round of Talks With M23

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Turkey-mediated technical talks between Ethiopia and Somalia over Ethiopia potentially securing maritime access to Somali ports have been suspended indefinitely, Africa Intelligence reported on July 9.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Turkey-Led Mediation Over Maritime Access Indefinitely Suspended

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen survived a no-confidence vote in the European Parliament over her handling of vaccine negotiations during the COVID-19 pandemic, including undisclosed text messages exchanged with U.S. pharmaceutical giant Pfizer, Reuters reported on July 10.

EU: European Commission President von der Leyen Survives No-Confidence Vote

Vietnamese lawmakers vote on a merger of provinces and cities at the National Assembly in Hanoi on June 12, 2025.

The reduction in provincial- and commune-level units will initially create bureaucratic headaches, but if implemented effectively, the changes set the stage for leaner administration, fiscal efficiency, reduced corruption and improved investment conditions.

Vietnam's Administrative Overhaul: A New Era of Governance and Investment Conditions

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

 Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met in the United Arab Emirates to discuss their countries' normalization process, Armenpress reported on July 10. 

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

Colombia

A government security report found that as of the end of June 2025, armed groups had expanded by an estimated 45% since President Gustavo Petro took office in mid-2022, Reuters reported on July 8.

Colombia: Armed Groups Expanded Significantly Under Petro

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Brazil: Brazil To Consider Alternative Retaliation to 50% U.S. Tariffs

Sri Lanka: Trump Announces 30% Tariff on Sri Lanka

Mozambique: U.N. Warns of Worsening Humanitarian Crisis in Cabo Delgado

Vietnam: Hanoi Tightens Transshipment Enforcement To Appease U.S.

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

Congo, Rwanda: Peace Deal Nears Finalization, Kinshasa Gears Up for New Round of Talks With M23

Ethiopia, Somalia: Turkey-Led Mediation Over Maritime Access Indefinitely Suspended

EU: European Commission President von der Leyen Survives No-Confidence Vote

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Leaders Meet in Abu Dhabi, Pledge To Continue Talking

Colombia: Armed Groups Expanded Significantly Under Petro

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