Assessments

Bolivia

Europe

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Energy

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Dec. 27, 2024

Bangladesh

Demonstrators on Sept. 5 mark a month since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka. The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more.

The emphasis on extensive reforms by the interim government of Bangladesh will likely delay elections, intensifying unrest and destabilizing the country even more. 

A Likely Delay to Bangladesh Elections Will Intensify Unrest

Iran

Israel

China

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Cyber

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Jordan

Lebanon

Syria

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, and his son and current party head, Taymur Jumblatt, meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir and other Druze leaders during a Dec. 22 visit to Damascus, Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Military & Security

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Gauging the Regional Fallout of Syrian Regime Change

Algeria

Morocco

Tunisia

North Africa will struggle to combat its worsening drought amid overconsumption, mismanagement and technological shortcomings.

The Geopolitics of Water: A Prolonged Drought Dries Up North Africa's Resources

Columns

On Geopolitics

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

France

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Increased EU purchases of U.S. fossil fuels may ease trade tensions and facilitate talks with the incoming Trump administration, but they are unlikely to alone defuse the risk of tariffs and other trade disputes in the years ahead.

Can the EU Avoid Trump's Tariffs by Importing More U.S. Oil and Gas?

Media

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

What is the future trajectory of the peace process?

Essential Geopolitics: Implications of Cancelled Peace Talks between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda

Latest

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

Australia

Nauru

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

The flags of Australia, the Solomon Islands, Nauru and Papua New Guinea clockwise starting from the upper left. Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.

Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other. 

Australian Efforts to Counter China in the Pacific Will Require Follow-Through

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declares martial law on Dec. 3, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Legal, social and political pressures will likely still force Yoon out of office in the coming months, bringing a liberal president to power who would pursue pro-labor policies and reorient South Korea's foreign relations.

South Korea's President Yoon Not Impeached, but His End Is Nigh

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

Romania

Demonstrators hold EU and Romanian national flags during a pro-European rally in support of democracy at University Square in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 5, 2024, a few days before key elections. 

The ruling may bolster support for anti-establishment parties, undermine public trust in Romania's institutions and establish a dangerous precedent in other parts of Europe.

Romania's Election Annulment Raises the Stakes Domestically and Abroad

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

Canada

Mexico

NYSE workers during morning trading Nov. 26 in New York. Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to place large tariffs on Canada and Mexico immediately upon taking office, but the mere threat to do so will likely chill investment in North America amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Though tariffs are unlikely, threats alone will likely chill investment amid growing uncertainty about U.S. trade policy.

Trump's Tariff Threats Alone Likely to Chill North American Investment

Romanian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu is seen during a television interview on Nov. 13, 2024. 

Georgescu's shock victory in the first round of the presidential election reflects a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could yield similar surprises in Romania's Dec. 1 parliamentary elections.

A Far-Right Dark Horse Emerges in Romania's Presidential Race

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Japan

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

U.S.-Iran Relations

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Science & Technology

Afghanistan

Pakistan

The head of the Afghan Taliban's political office in Qatar said the group does not intend to escalate after border clashes erupted with Pakistani forces following Pakistan's Dec. 24 airstrikes on alleged Afghanistan-based militants, but that further Pakistani "escalation" would prompt the Afghan Taliban to undertake "measured retaliation," Bloomberg reported on Dec. 31.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

Acting President Choi Sang-mok appointed two justices to South Korea's shorthanded Constitutional Court, upping the number of judges on the bench from six to eight, with one vacancy remaining, Yonhap News Agency reported Dec. 31.

South Korea: Acting President Appoints Two Constitutional Court Justices

Suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol became the first sitting president in South Korean history to face arrest as the Seoul Western District Court issued a warrant for his detention on insurrection and treason charges in connection with his abortive Dec. 3 martial law gambit, Yonhap News Agency reported on Dec. 31.

South Korea: Arrest Warrant Issued for Suspended President

According to Indian media reports, Pakistan will begin training Bangladesh's army in February 2025, which would mark the two countries' first military training agreement since the 1971 Liberation War that led to Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan, Firstpost reported on Dec. 30.

Bangladesh: India Claims Pakistan Will Provide Military Training to Bangladesh

Romania's new coalition government approved an emergency decree introducing a series of tax hikes and spending caps to save up to 130 billion lei ($27 billion), Euractiv reported on Dec. 31.

Romania: New Government Unveils Fiscal Consolidation Measures To Tackle Rising Deficit

The U.S. Treasury Department disclosed in a letter to Congress that it was hacked by a Chinese state-sponsored actor through a third-party service provider, Bloomberg reported Dec. 30.

U.S.: Chinese Hackers Breach Treasury Department

Bulgaria

Bulgaria's Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov said on Dec. 30 that his country will provide Moldova with natural gas supply assistance following the expected suspension of Russian natural gas deliveries to Moldova on Jan. 1, 2025, Agenzia Nova reported on Dec. 31.

Moldova: Bulgaria Promises To Help Moldova After Russian Natural Gas Cut-Off

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

Cuba

Venezuela

The U.S. Department of Justice finalized rules to ban companies from selling sensitive bulk personal data of American citizens to foreign adversarial countries in an effort to combat a range of malicious activities, according to a press release published on Dec. 27. 

U.S.: Government Finalizes Rules Banning Bulk Data Sale to Adversaries

Senegal

The Senegalese government's 2025 budget was adopted after Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko triggered Article 86.6 of the Senegalese Constitution, enabling him to bypass a vote in the National Assembly, Senenews reported on Dec. 29.

Senegal: PASTEF Adopts 2025 Budget, Eyes Lower Fiscal Deficit 

Ahmad al-Sharaa, the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, said the country might take up to four years to hold new elections and three years to draft a new constitution, Al Arabiya reported on Dec. 29.

Syria: New Elections and Constitution Face Years of Delays

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

South Korea: Acting President Appoints Two Constitutional Court Justices

South Korea: Arrest Warrant Issued for Suspended President

Bangladesh: India Claims Pakistan Will Provide Military Training to Bangladesh

Romania: New Government Unveils Fiscal Consolidation Measures To Tackle Rising Deficit

U.S.: Chinese Hackers Breach Treasury Department

Moldova: Bulgaria Promises To Help Moldova After Russian Natural Gas Cut-Off

U.S.: Government Finalizes Rules Banning Bulk Data Sale to Adversaries

Senegal: PASTEF Adopts 2025 Budget, Eyes Lower Fiscal Deficit

Syria: New Elections and Constitution Face Years of Delays

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