Assessments

Angola

Cabo Verde

Cote d'Ivoire

Nigeria

United States

Yemen

Europe

France

Russia

India

India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Podcasts

What are some of the most important security developments highlighted in our annual forecast?

Essential Geopolitics: The Security Outlook for 2024

Ukraine

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

How will the U.S. presidential election affect the trajectory of the conflict?

Essential Geopolitics: The Russia-Ukraine War in 2024

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

US Naval Update Map: Jan 18, 2024

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli artillery unit fires during a military drill Nov. 2, 2023, in the Golan Heights near the border with Lebanon. While a full-scale invasion of Lebanon is unlikely, in the coming weeks Israel will consider escalatory measures that involve stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war for Israel.

Israel will consider -- though it will not prefer the option of -- stronger action against Hezbollah inside Lebanon, creating the risk of a multifront and extended war.

What a War With Hezbollah Could Mean for Israel

China

Taiwan

Taiwanese President-Elect, William Lai (left), celebrates alongside his running mate (right) during a rally at the headquarters of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taipei, Taiwan, on Jan. 13, 2024, after winning the presidential election.

Economics

The ruling party's continued control of Taiwan's presidency will see Beijing steadily escalate its economic and military coercion against Taipei, presenting a low risk of blockades or an invasion of Taiwan's outlying islands. 

Taiwan's Election Yields Four More Years of DPP Rule -- and China Tensions

U.S.-China Relations

Snapshots

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

The growing patchwork of local laws in the U.S. will pose compliance challenges for companies operating across state lines.

In the Absence of a Federal Framework, US States Enact Their Own Data Privacy Laws

Morocco

People protest against high living costs in Rabat, Morocco, on Feb. 20, 2023.

If the country's cost-of-living crisis worsens, Rabat may face political turmoil that results in a Cabinet reshuffle or the prime minister's resignation.

What's in Store for Morocco in 2024

Guatemala

United Kingdom

Houthis during the capture of an Israel-linked cargo vessel in November 2023 at an unnamed location in the Red Sea.

The Weekly Rundown: The Possible Houthi Reply to U.S.-U.K. Strikes, Taiwan's General Elections

A Royal Air Force Typhoon aircraft returns to berth following a strike mission on Yemen's Houthi rebels at RAF Akrotiri on Jan. 12, 2024, in Akrotiri, Cyprus. While U.S.-British joint strikes on the Houthis will degrade some of their capabilities, they are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

The strikes will degrade some Houthi capabilities, but are highly unlikely to dissuade the Yemeni militant group from continuing to target shipping in the Red Sea.

What Western Strikes on the Houthis Mean for Yemen and the Region

Does the vaccine reduce the likelihood of long COVID?

Beyond COVID: The JN.1 Variant -- Who Should Get Vaccinated?

Latest

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

A Kyrgyz serviceman at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border Sept. 20, 2022, in Min-Bulak, Kyrgyzstan. A border demarcation deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would reduce the risk of a larger conflict between the countries in the years to come, ultimately boosting regional economic prospects and transit connectivity, as well as the credibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Such a deal would reduce the risk of a conflict between the two, boosting regional economic prospects along with the credibility of the Russia-led CSTO.

How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia

Pakistan

A photo taken on Jan. 18, 2024, shows a resident pointing to a mountain in the Koh-e-Sabz area of Pakistan's southwest Balochistan province where Iran recently launched an airstrike.

The current crisis will heighten risks of border clashes, militant retaliation and even tit-for-tat attacks, despite both countries' likely desire to de-escalate.

What To Make of the Recent Strikes Between Iran and Pakistan

Poland

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (right) shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Growing tensions between the new government and key institutions still loyal to its predecessor will fuel political instability and may ultimately threaten Warsaw's plans to unlock frozen EU funds.

A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis

A Ukrainian flag flies near the Great Lavra Bell Tower of the Motherland Monument in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 22, 2023.

Even if Kyiv makes significant progress on the U.S. and Europe's requested structural reforms, those opposed to supporting Ukraine in the West are unlikely to change their positions.

The Risks and Opportunities of Ukraine's Anti-Corruption and Reform Agenda

Asia-Pacific

For the remainder of the decade, emerging economies in Asia will continue to outperform those in all other regions, though the extent will depend heavily on China's performance.

Despite Slowed Chinese Growth, Global Economic Power Continues to Shift Toward Asia

Tunisia

Spain

Italy

Tunisian dinar.

Tunisia will push European states for more aid as migrants use the country as a launching point to the Continent.

Tunisia Angles for More European Aid as Migrants Travel North

Argentina

A graph falling down in front of the Argentine flag.

Argentina's governmental push to deregulate its economy and strengthen competition in the private sector is set to face significant challenges in the short term but will prove a more attractive business environment in South America's second-largest economy in the long term.

In Argentina, the Challenges and Benefits Facing Milei's Deregulation Push

Former U.S. president and 2024 presidential hopeful Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, on Dec. 19, 2023. That same day, a Colorado court ruled Trump could not appear on the state's presidential primary ballot due to his involvement in the U.S. Capitol riot in January 2021. 

The decision to ban Trump from Colorado's presidential primary ballot could increase the risk of political violence in the U.S., while reinforcing global perceptions that America's institutional and democratic strength is ailing.

Gauging the Fallout From the Colorado Court Ruling Against Trump

Republic of the Congo

South Africa

Zambia

U.S. President Joe Biden shakes hands with President Joao Lourenco of Angola during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House on Nov. 30, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

A new supply line could increase access to Central African mining exports and strengthen Western influence in the region, but several constraints stand in the way.

Washington's 'Flagship' Africa Project: A New Supply Line for Central African Mining Exports

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 13, 2023. 

Kishida's scapegoating of powerful LDP officials to manage a slush fund scandal will likely see him replaced as prime minister, which may force Japan to turn its attention inward and away from regional security matters.

In Japan, Kishida's Leadership Purge Will Likely Lead to His Own Ouster

Columns

On Geopolitics

North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Mexico

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

South Korea

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Palestinian Hamas militants are seen during a military show in Gaza City, Gaza, on July 20, 2017.

Without a central geography to anchor the group, there may be deepening rifts between Hamas' Doha-based politicians, its surviving militants in the West Bank and Gaza, and its fighters in Syria and Lebanon.

The Future of Hamas Without Gaza

Norway

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (3rd from right), Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store (4th from left) and members of their delegations meet in Oslo, Norway, on May 12, 2023. 

As the Arctic Council leadership transfers from Russia to Norway, China is positioning itself to play a greater role in Arctic matters.

In the Arctic, Russia's Geopolitical Isolation Opens New Doors for China

Germany

Belgium

Portugal

Romania

Austria

Netherlands

Demonstrators hold Spanish flags during a protest called by the country’s far-right Vox party in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 12, 2023. 

Far-right parties are expected to perform strongly in sub-national, national and EU elections next year, portending significant shifts in governance and policies.

In Europe, Far-Right Parties Are Again on the Rise

Then-U.S. President Richard Nixon (left) congratulates Henry Kissinger after he was sworn in as Secretary of State in the East Room of the White House on Sept. 22, 1973.

The former Secretary of State will be remembered for his unabashed and oftentimes ruthless pursuit of U.S. interests during the Cold War, even when they seemed contrary to stated American ideals. 

The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests Versus Ideals

A photo taken on Nov. 4, 2023, shows a wall dividing the West Bank (right) from Israeli settlements (left) in Al-Ram, West Bank.

Social Issues

Anything resembling lasting peace in the Gaza Strip will require a future plan for the other Palestinian territory: the West Bank, which, in many respects, is a far more complex puzzle.

The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank

The seal for the International Monetary Fund is seen near the World Bank headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 10, 2022. 

China's emergence as a major bilateral creditor has complicated the swift provision of financing assurances and the efficient restructuring of sovereign debt.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 2

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani told Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian that Islamabad was willing to collaborate with Tehran, particularly on issues of security, and both parties agreed to de-escalate their conflict over recent strikes, Dawn reported on Jan. 19.

Pakistan, Iran: Countries to De-Escalate Following Strikes

Brazil

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza on Jan. 19, Folha de S. Paulo reported on Jan. 18.

Brazil, China: Brasilia and Beijing Continue to Deepen Partnership

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Congolese opposition leaders called for protests in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi ahead of President Felix Tshisekedi's inauguration on Jan. 20, Reuters reported on Jan. 19.

Congo: Opposition Leaders Call for Inauguration Day Protests as Church Condemns Elections Outcomes

Chile

Mexico and Chile referred a case to the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, or ICC, regarding possible crimes that may have been committed in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, AP reported on Jan. 18.

Chile, Mexico: Governments Refer Possible Crimes in Israel-Hamas War to ICC

Science & Technology

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA, said its Smart Lander for Investigating Moon, or SLIM, landed and was communicating, but the lander is using batteries because its solar cells and panels are not generating power.

Japan: SLIM Lunar Lander Successfully Landed on the Moon, but Power Issues Persist

China's State Council ordered 12 heavily indebted provinces and municipalities to stop or delay some infrastructure spending, with a focus on air, rail and roadway projects, Reuters reported on Jan. 19.

China: Local Infrastructure, Spending Curbs to Weigh on Consumption

The German parliament’s budget committee on Jan. 18 approved the government’s budget for 2024, which includes plans to phase out agricultural fuel subsidies despite strong pushback and weeks of protests from farming groups, Euractiv reported on Jan. 19. 

Germany: Farmers to Escalate Protests as Government Cuts Agricultural Subsidies

On Security

The street in the Schaerbeek area of Brussels on Oc. 17, 2023, after the suspected perpetrator of a fatal terrorist attack in the Belgian capital was shot dead. Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Even if the IDF succeeds in largely destroying Hamas, it will come at a large cost -- in reputation, protest and, in all likelihood, terrorist backlash for years to come.

Considering the Future Terrorist Threat From the Israel-Hamas War

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Just as low- and lower-middle-income economies are experiencing peak distress, they are finding it harder to secure financing assurances and debt relief from official creditors.

The Politics of Developing Economy Debt Restructuring, Part 1

Indonesia

Indonesia's presidential candidates Ganjar Pranowo, the governor of Central Java, and Anies Baswedan, the governor of Jakarta, are discussing an alliance by which one endorses the other in the event of a runoff election, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 19.

Indonesia: Trailing Presidential Candidates Look to Form Alliance

Jordan

Syria

Syrian media reported that several suspected Jordanian airstrikes killed 10 people, including women and children, in a residential area in Orman in southwestern Syria, Reuters reported on Jan. 18.

Jordan, Syria: Airstrikes in Syria Kill 10, Likely Part of Jordanian Crackdown on Drugs

The British government's Safety of Rwanda bill, a piece of emergency legislation to save a controversial plan to relocate asylum seekers to Rwanda, survived a second vote in the House of Commons, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 17.

UK: Rishi Sunak's Government Survives Second Vote on Rwanda Migration Bill

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, Iran: Countries to De-Escalate Following Strikes

Brazil, China: Brasilia and Beijing Continue to Deepen Partnership

Congo: Opposition Leaders Call for Inauguration Day Protests as Church Condemns Elections Outcomes

Chile, Mexico: Governments Refer Possible Crimes in Israel-Hamas War to ICC

Japan: SLIM Lunar Lander Successfully Landed on the Moon, but Power Issues Persist

China: Local Infrastructure, Spending Curbs to Weigh on Consumption

Germany: Farmers to Escalate Protests as Government Cuts Agricultural Subsidies

Indonesia: Trailing Presidential Candidates Look to Form Alliance

Jordan, Syria: Airstrikes in Syria Kill 10, Likely Part of Jordanian Crackdown on Drugs

UK: Rishi Sunak's Government Survives Second Vote on Rwanda Migration Bill

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