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Military & Security

RANE Insights: How Should Organizations Approach Geopolitical Risk?

Somalia

What are the implications of ATMIS' withdrawal from Somalia?

Essential Geopolitics: Somalia's Security Outlook

Assessments

Argentina

Egypt

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Japan

Europe

An Israeli tank on Oct. 20, 2023, at Kibbutz Beeri near the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip. igh-level representatives from the Gulf and other Arab countries, Turkey and Europe plus U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres among others will meet Oct. 21 in Cairo to discuss the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and humanitarian crisis.

Economics

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Summit in Egypt as Israel Prepares to Invade Gaza, Argentines Head to the Polls

United States

Iran

What do Israel, Hamas, Iran and the United States want?

Essential Geopolitics: What's At Stake in the Israel-Hamas War?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A plume of black smoke rises above Gaza City's skyline during an Israeli air strike on Oct. 8, 2023. 

Filling the vacuum left by Hamas will inevitably entail some level of Israeli intervention, which will tie Israel's military down, alienate its allies abroad and destabilize its government.

Reviewing Israel's Options for Gaza's Post-War Future

How can geopolitical analysis provide valuable perspectives for shaping and assessing foreign policy?

Applied Geopolitics: Geopolitics as an Aid to Statecraft

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Ukraine

People in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, stand near a residential building that was damaged in fighting with Russian troops, as rescuers conduct a search and rescue operation, on Oct. 18, 2023.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Gaza conflict risks reducing Kyiv's ability to resist Moscow's ongoing invasion by increasing competition for -- and political infighting over -- Western financial and military aid. 

How Might the Israel-Hamas War Impact Ukraine's Fight Against Russia?

Turkey

Funeral prayers in absentia are held for those who lost their lives in the deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on October 18, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Domestic pressure to take a more definitively pro-Palestinian stance following the Gaza hospital blast will impede Anakra's ability to mediate between Hamas and Israel.

Rising Anti-Israel Anger Tests Turkey's Ability to Serve as a Mediator in Gaza

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 19, 2023

Social Issues

How can organizations positively contribute to conversations on mental health? 

RANE Insights: Addressing Mental Health and Substance Abuse in the Workplace

Latest

Lebanon

Lebanese security forces use water cannons as they clash with protesters outside the U.S. embassy near Beirut on Oct. 18, 2023, during a demonstration in solidarity with Palestinians amid the latest Hamas-Israel war.

Regardless of their veracity, allegations of Israel's involvement in the tragedy will complicate U.S. efforts to avoid an expanded conflict in the region.

The Gaza Hospital Blast Risks Widening the War and Fueling Radicalism

Snapshots

China

Philippines

A photo taken during a Philippine surveillance flight on Sept. 28, 2023, shows a Chinese coast guard ship on patrol near the Scarborough Shoal (seen in the background) in the South China Sea.

The vessel crashes highlight the risk of future crises in the disputed maritime region as China tries to test the U.S.'s commitment to defending the Philippines and the wider Indo-Pacific.

Chinese-Philippine Collisions Bring Attention Back to the South China Sea

U.S.-China Relations

Bulgaria

Romania

Austria

Netherlands

An EU sign is seen at a Romanian border crossing.

Bulgaria and Romania have set out to join the EU's passport-free zone by the year's end, but Austrian and Dutch skepticism will likely keep delaying their membership and the associated economic benefits.

The Challenges Facing Bulgaria and Romania's Schengen Bids

Sudan

Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in southern Khartoum amidst ongoing fighting on June 7, 2023. 

As the war enters its seventh month, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary RSF shows no sign of abating, with greater civilian and humanitarian hardships on the horizon.

In Sudan, Peace Remains a Distant Prospect

Hong Kong SAR, China

Singapore

People cycle along the promenade at Marina Bay in Singapore on Oct. 13, 2023. 

While it may briefly slow its economy, the city-state's robust response to the crisis will ultimately mitigate the impact on Singapore's reputation as an easy and safe place to do business.

Singapore Races To Keep Money Laundering From Muddying Its Image

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Central African Republic

Cote d'Ivoire

Gabon

Mali

Niger

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Poland

Posters for parliamentary candidates ahead of Poland's Oct. 10, 2023, election in Lodz, Poland.

A new centrist government would significantly improve relations with the European Union, allowing the country to continue playing an increasingly central role in the bloc.

Parliamentary Elections May Move Poland Closer to Brussels

Smoke billows Oct. 10, 2023, from the Gaza Strip's Rafah border crossing with Egypt during an Israeli airstrike. Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

Cairo will face a domestic backlash for its ties with Israel, and faces the prospect of an additional backlash in the event of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt.

How the Gaza War Will Impact Egyptian Politics

Damage caused by Israeli airstrikes Oct. 7, 2023, in Gaza City, Gaza, in response to a Hamas-led incursion into Israel. A large-scale Hamas attack threatens to significantly escalate conflict between Israel and the militant groups. 

Violence could spread from Gaza to the West Bank, and attacks from Lebanon and unrest within Israel proper are also possible.

How the Hamas Surprise Attack From Gaza on Israel Could Play Out

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Bank of Japan headquarters is seen in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2022. 

High government debt is unlikely to keep the BoJ from fighting inflation with rate hikes. But as it adopts more flexible policies, the bank will need to be wary of tightening too much, too early.

Japan's Central Bank Mulls More Policy Flexibility Amid an Uncertain Inflation Outlook

EU flags wave outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

While keeping its current membership would enable the EU to focus on internal reforms, it may weaken the bloc's influence over its periphery if Brussels fails to offer a credible path for accession.

The Future of EU Enlargement

A supporter of Argentine presidential candidate Javier Milei, who has pledged to dollarize the country's economy, holds up a gigant fake U.S. dollar bill with Milei's face on it during a rally in Buenos Aires on Sept. 25, 2023. 

Argentina's history casts significant doubt on policymakers' ability to maintain fiscal discipline if its next president moves to replace the peso with the U.S. dollar as the country's national currency. 

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 2

This illustration shows a $100 banknote on top of Argentine pesos in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Oct. 10, 2023.

Argentina's potential shift toward dollarization will come with its fair share of economic constraints.

Considering Dollarization in Argentina, Part 1

Saudi Arabia

U.S. President Joe Biden makes his way to board Air Force One at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on July 15, 2022, as he departs for Saudi Arabia after a two-day visit to Israel. 

Paradoxically, a normalization process designed to allow Washington to draw down from the Middle East could end up pulling it back in.

Would Israeli-Saudi Normalization Bring the Regional Order the U.S. Wants?

Chinese Yuan Surrounded By U.S. 100 Dollar Bills 

As the term "de-dollarization" has become increasingly used in recent years, questions have arisen over the future of the U.S. dollar's role in the international economic order and the dominance it has had thus far. 

Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics: De-dollarization, Diversification and the Global Use of the Yuan

Taiwan

North Macedonia

Georgia

Belarus

India

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identify and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Delegates attend the closing ceremony of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on Oct. 22, 2022.

Policy mismanagement could cause a prolonged period of depressed interest rates and deflation, which would hurt China's domestic stability and rock the boat in international markets.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 3: Considering Failure

Beijing is restricting new debt by local governments in 12 "high risk" areas, according to Reuters sources on Oct. 25.

China: Funding, Debt Measures Reduce Risk of Local Government Financial Crisis

Israel agreed to delay its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip until new U.S. defenses arrive in the region, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 25.

Israel, U.S.: Israel Agrees to Delay Gaza Invasion Until U.S. Forces Arrive

Liberia

Liberia's National Elections Commission announced that President George Weah won 43.83% of the first round vote to opposition leader Joseph Boakai's 43.44%, and with neither candidate winning the requisite absolute majority, the vote will head to a runoff election on Nov. 14, Africanews reported on Oct. 24. 

Liberia: President George Weah to Face Joseph Boakai in Nov. 14 Runoff Election

Iraq

Kuwait

United Arab Emirates

Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq, a facade for Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah, said on Oct. 24 that U.S. bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were "legitimate targets" due to Washington's support for Israel in the Gaza war, Le Monde reported the next day.

Iraq, U.S.: Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militia Threatens U.S. Targets in UAE and Kuwait

Pakistan

A five-member bench of Pakistan's Supreme Court issued a short order declaring the military trials of civilians unconstitutional, Dawn reported on Oct. 23.

Pakistan: Supreme Court Declares Civilian Trials in Military Courts Unconstitutional

Electoral material is pictured at a polling station during primary elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Aug. 13, 2023.

Regardless of which candidate wins Argentina's presidential election, inflation is set to rise.

What to Expect After Argentina's Presidential Election

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi attend a meeting in Beijing on Oct. 13, 2023. 

The bloc's increased scrutiny on trade and investments with China will raise the cost of doing business for European firms, but it won't upend its relations with Beijing.

How Will the EU's De-Risking Strategy Toward China Evolve?

A truck drives between shipping containers at Nanjing port in China's eastern Jiangsu province on Aug. 6, 2023.

China's economic rebalancing is risky, but several short- and long-term policy options may help ease the transition.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 2: Potential Solutions

Boats travel on the Huangpu River against the skyline of Shanghai, China, on Aug. 28, 2020.

Slowing economic growth in China is symptomatic of a broader strategic rebalancing away from overinvestment in the real estate sector.

China's Great Economic Rebalancing, Part 1: The Problems

The United States formally declared that the Aug. 30 ousting of Gabon's former President Ali Bongo was a coup, resulting in the suspension of "most U.S. assistance" to the Central African nation, Reuters reported on Oct. 24.

Gabon: U.S. Declares Ousting of Bongo a Coup, Suspends Aid

Australia

United Kingdom

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Oct. 23. 

U.S., Australia: Albanese Visits Washington Amid AUKUS Bottlenecks

Sweden

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a bill that would approve Sweden's NATO membership to the National Assembly for ratification, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

Turkey, Sweden: Bill on Sweden's NATO Membership Sent to National Assembly

China's legislative leadership announced that Li Shangfu had been dismissed as defense minister, though a replacement was not named, South China Morning Post reported Oct. 24.

China: Ministerial Dismissals Could Politicize China's Administration, Diplomacy

France

French Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu unveiled a military cooperation deal with Armenia following a meeting with his Armenian counterpart, Suren Papikyan, Le Monde reported Oct. 24.

Armenia, France: Paris Launches Arms Sales, Military Cooperation with Yerevan

Finland

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Chinese-Philippine Collisions Bring Attention Back to the South China Sea

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China: Funding, Debt Measures Reduce Risk of Local Government Financial Crisis

Israel, U.S.: Israel Agrees to Delay Gaza Invasion Until U.S. Forces Arrive

Liberia: President George Weah to Face Joseph Boakai in Nov. 14 Runoff Election

Iraq, U.S.: Iranian-Backed Iraqi Militia Threatens U.S. Targets in UAE and Kuwait

Pakistan: Supreme Court Declares Civilian Trials in Military Courts Unconstitutional

Gabon: U.S. Declares Ousting of Bongo a Coup, Suspends Aid

U.S., Australia: Albanese Visits Washington Amid AUKUS Bottlenecks

Turkey, Sweden: Bill on Sweden's NATO Membership Sent to National Assembly

China: Ministerial Dismissals Could Politicize China's Administration, Diplomacy

Armenia, France: Paris Launches Arms Sales, Military Cooperation with Yerevan

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