Assessments

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Travels to the Middle East, India and Pakistan's Ongoing Conflict

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

Iran

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Military & Security

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

United Kingdom

U.S. President Donald Trump -- flanked by Vice President JD Vance (left) and Peter Mandelson, the U.K. ambassador to the United States (right) -- holds a phone call with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office of the White House on May 8, 2025. 

Economics

Global Trade

Politics

The agreement's narrow scope and quota system suggest the White House remains intent on restricting imports, meaning tariff relief for most other countries reaching deals will also be limited.

Trump Reaches First Post-Tariff Trade Deal With the U.K.

Poland

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 8, 2025

India

Pakistan

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

Ukraine

Russia

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Saudi Arabia

Kazakhstan

The OPEC logo is seen outside the bloc's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Oct. 4, 2022.

Energy

The production boost will further decrease oil prices, which will provide some financial relief for oil-consuming countries affected by U.S. tariffs, while further straining the budgets of poorer oil producers like Iraq. 

The Mixed Economic Impact of OPEC's Production Increase

Australia

After winning the general election, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese waves as he arrives onstage at the Labor Party election night event in Sydney on May 3, 2025. 

The Labor Party's sweeping victory in Australia will strengthen Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's ability to increase public spending and bolster ties with foreign partners.

Albanese Returns Stronger Than Ever Following Australia's General Election

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israeli soldiers conduct a raid in the West Bank on March 19, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israel's newly approved plan to expand its offensive against Hamas will invite more Houthi attacks on its territory, worsen Gaza's humanitarian crisis, and fuel backlash both at home and abroad. 

To Break Hamas, Israel Prepares to Reoccupy Gaza

Snapshots

Romania

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Latest

This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.

While direct talks mark a notable development in the peace process, Moscow will not make meaningful concessions unless it faces bolder action from the West (particularly the U.S.), like asset seizures and increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive

China

Philippines

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

U.S.-China Relations

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Argentina

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Europe

Germany

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Preliminary results from the Philippines' May 12 midterm elections show that candidates aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte are performing strongly, securing at least four of the 12 contested Senate seats, Rappler reported the same day.

Philippines: Early Tallies Suggest Midterm Elections Skew Pro-Duterte

Vietnam

Vietnam and Russia announced plans to accelerate agreements on constructing two nuclear power plants in Vietnam’s Ninh Thuan province with a combined capacity of 6.4 gigawatts, Vietnamese state-run Bao Chinh Phu reported on May 12.

Vietnam, Russia: Nuclear Power Agreement Highlights Deepening Strategic Ties

The suspended governor of Nigeria's southeastern Rivers state, Siminalayi Fubara, said in his first public remarks since the imposition of a state of emergency in Rivers that he "wouldn't go back" to being governor "if [he] had [his] way" and called on his supporters to avoid confrontational rhetoric, The Punch reported on May 12.

Nigeria: Suspended Rivers Governor Urges Calm as Pressure To Scrap State of Emergency Mounts

Bangladesh

Citing national security concerns, Bangladesh's interim government invoked the Anti-Terrorism Act to ban all activities of the Awami League, the party led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Reuters reported on May 10.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh Imposes Ban on the Formerly Ruling Awami League Under Anti-Terrorism Law

Turkey

The Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, announced that it would disband and end its decades-long armed conflict with Turkey, Reuters reported on May 12.

Turkey: PKK Announces Disbandment and End of Conflict With Turkey

Mexico

The United States announced a 15-day suspension of Mexican live cattle, horses and bison imports through the southern U.S. border over New World screwworm pest concerns, La Jornada reported May 11.

U.S., Mexico: U.S. Import Suspension of Mexican Livestock Illustrates Washington's Volatile Policy Decisions

Poland will close the Russian consulate in Krakow after obtaining evidence that Moscow's intelligence services were behind a major arson attack at a Warsaw mall last May, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced in a post on X on May 12.

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

Science & Technology

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the launch of Humain, an artificial intelligence company owned by the Saudi Public Investment Fund, that will work on developing various AI models and applications, including large language models in Arabic, data centers and cloud computing infrastructure, Okaz reported on May 12.

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Launches Humain AI Company Ahead of Trump Visit

India and Pakistan announced May 10 that they had reached a ceasefire deal -- facilitated in part by international pressure from countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Turkey -- hours after the two sides' dayslong clashes escalated sharply following kinetic exchanges targeting each other's military assets, AP reported May 10.

India, Pakistan: Ceasefire Announced Following Sharp Escalation

Pakistan's military spokesperson, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said India targeted three of Pakistan's air force bases: Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, Murid in Murid and Rafiqui in Shorkot, all of which are in Punjab province, DW reported on May 9. 

India, Pakistan: Islamabad Says India's Military Struck Pakistani Air Bases, Including in Rawalpindi

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines: Early Tallies Suggest Midterm Elections Skew Pro-Duterte

Vietnam, Russia: Nuclear Power Agreement Highlights Deepening Strategic Ties

Nigeria: Suspended Rivers Governor Urges Calm as Pressure To Scrap State of Emergency Mounts

Bangladesh: Bangladesh Imposes Ban on the Formerly Ruling Awami League Under Anti-Terrorism Law

Turkey: PKK Announces Disbandment and End of Conflict With Turkey

U.S., Mexico: U.S. Import Suspension of Mexican Livestock Illustrates Washington's Volatile Policy Decisions

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Launches Humain AI Company Ahead of Trump Visit

India, Pakistan: Ceasefire Announced Following Sharp Escalation

India, Pakistan: Islamabad Says India's Military Struck Pakistani Air Bases, Including in Rawalpindi

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