2017 fourth-quarter forecast

Eurasia

Eurasia is the world’s most expansive region. It connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia. Forming the borders of this massive tract of land are the Northern European Plain, the Carpathian Mountains, the Southern Caucasus Mountains, the Tien Shan Mountains and Siberia. At the heart of Eurasia is Russia, a country that throughout history has tried, to varying degrees of success, to extend its influence to Eurasia’s farthest reaches — a strategy meant to insulate it from outside powers. But this strategy necessarily creates conflict throughout Russia’s borderlands, putting Eurasia a near constant state of instability.

Sep 28, 2017 | 13:57 GMT
Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia.

Eurasia connects the East to the West, forming a land bridge that borders Europe, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and South Asia.

(YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images)
section Highlights
  • Increased checks on White House power and expanded sanctions from the U.S. Congress will limit President Donald Trump's options for de-escalating tensions with the Kremlin, while the Russian elections slated for 2018 will keep Moscow from making major concessions to the West.
  • Russia will continue to publicly support the limited sanctions on North Korea that the United States has pushed even as it quietly skirts them behind the scenes. And Moscow probably will veto more substantial measures against Pyongyang.
  • The negotiations over the Ukraine conflict will pick up this quarter because of Russia's proposal to deploy a U.N. peacekeeping force in Donbas, which could ease the pressure on Moscow and give it more leeway in dealing with the United States and the European Union.
  • Ahead of presidential and local elections, the Kremlin will try to manage the deepening divisions and burgeoning protest movements among the Russian electorate.
  • Russia will use the political instability and growing threat of militancy in Central Asia to strengthen its security presence in the region.
See more on this Region

...

Article Search

Copyright © Stratfor Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved.

Stratfor Worldview

OUR COMMITMENT

To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment.

GET THE MOBILE APPGoogle Play