2017 fourth-quarter forecast

Global Trends

In today's world, nations are becoming increasingly interconnected by air, land, sea and cyberspace. As globalization has knitted countries and continents closer together, the borders of the map and the barriers of geography have been rendered, in some ways, obsolete. Now events in one region can more easily have consequences in another, at times even rippling across the globe. We explore those with the greatest impact on international decision-making during the forecast period below.
Sep 28, 2017 | 13:54 GMT
The United States will head into the last quarter of the year facing one of the greatest direct nuclear threats to the American mainland since the Cuban missile crisis.
(NASA/Newsmakers)
section Highlights
  • North Korea's nuclear ambitions will occupy most of the United States' attention as Washington searches for ways to halt the progress of Pyongyang's weapons program, even as China and Russia continue to subtly prop up their belligerent neighbor.
  • Distracted by North Korea, the United States will not be willing to create another headache for itself by withdrawing from its nuclear deal with Iran. Russia, meanwhile, will deepen its involvement in several conflicts around the world to strengthen its own bargaining position in talks with the United States.
  • The White House will keep putting its trade policies into practice in the fourth quarter, but despite its tough talk in the opening phase of NAFTA negotiations, the United States will have a hard time persuading Mexico and Canada to meet its steep demands.
  • Across the Atlantic, Europe will turn to the difficult task of reforming institutions within the European Union and eurozone now that national elections in France and Germany have wrapped up.
  • Though the world's oil inventories have declined, they haven't fallen quickly enough to suit the organizers of a pact among oil producers to slash output, signaling the group's likely intent to extend the quota beyond March 2018.

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