2017 third-quarter forecast

South Asia

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region’s great population centers. India is the region’s dominant country, home to the world’s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.

Jun 26, 2017 | 13:48 GMT
Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders.

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders.

(CoolR/Shutterstock.com)
section Highlights
  • India likely will manage to implement only part of the critical Goods and Services Tax in the third quarter because of disagreements between the federal and state governments as well as onboarding challenges for businesses across the country.
  • Social and economic disruptions caused by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's nationwide ban on cattle sales will give the opposition a pretext to keep the government from passing labor reform legislation during the Parliament's monsoon session.
  • Modi will continue pursuing a diverse foreign policy this quarter, visiting Israel, hosting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and dispatching forces to participate in the Malabar naval exercises.
  • Fighting in Afghanistan will intensify as the United States sends more troops to bolster the Afghan National Security Forces in their war against the Taliban.
  • Pakistan will try to subvert Zakir Musa's Hizbul Mujahideen breakaway faction to prevent an anti-Pakistani transnational jihadist movement from taking root in the disputed territory of Kashmir.
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