2019 Third-Quarter Forecast
Southern Scandinavia just before midnight under a full moon, showing the Northern lights aurora.
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- There is a small window for a trade truce, but the White House is more likely to escalate its trade war and broader strategic competition with China.
- Iranian retaliation against the White House's maximum pressure campaign will raise the risk of U.S. punitive strikes against Iran.
- Mexico will continue to live in fear of tariffs as the country falls short of Trump's demands for choking off migrant flows.
- Rising trade frictions, the potential for military conflict in the energy-vital Persian Gulf and growing political uncertainty will create major geopolitical headwinds for the already-slowing global economy.
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