GRAPHICS

Africa's Promising Electricity Sources

Jan 9, 2014 | 19:23 GMT

Stratfor's graphic of the day features a standout geopolitical map, chart, image or data visualization reflecting global and regional trends and events.

(Stratfor)

Africa's Promising Electricity Sources

Africa has great potential for hydroelectric power. The Congo River alone has 100,000 megawatts of potential power generation capacity spread across its entire length, with about 44,000 MW of that concentrated in one location, the Inga Falls. To put this potential into perspective, as of 2010 the entire continent had an installed capacity of just 133,000 MW. Two small power plants were built at the Inga Falls three decades ago, and two more dams have long been intended. The proposed $12 billion Inga III Dam would have 3,500 MW of installed capacity, and the proposed $80 billion Grand Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo would add 39,000 MW and surpass the Three Gorges Dam as the world's largest.

Aside from the problem of financing an $80 billion project for a country with a gross domestic product of $18 billion, the physical infrastructure needed to distribute 39,000 MW of power — and the economic activity to justify it — will emerge slowly over a couple of decades, if at all. Indeed, 39,000 MW is roughly equivalent to sub-Saharan Africa's currently installed capacity, excluding South Africa. Demand will build slowly as relatively low energy-intensive manufacturing plants are built and more Africans become able to access electricity in increasingly remote areas. This means that smaller-scale energy projects are more justifiable. Not only are they more adaptable to the continent's current needs, but also smaller projects typically cost much less. Expensive projects like the Grand Inga Dam will materialize only incrementally and over a long period of time.

One of the more promising alternatives could be geothermal electricity in the Great Rift region. The rift, stretching from Djibouti down through Zambia, has an estimated 15,000 MW of geothermic potential. Unlike hydropower, geothermal energy projects can easily be made big or small, meaning that small — and thus more economical — geothermal power plants could be built in remote areas. Also, unlike almost all other forms of renewable energy, which are intermittent, geothermal power plants essentially can generate power nonstop. Finally, geothermal power plants do not consume large amounts of fuel once they are built. Kenya and Ethiopia have been at the forefront of geothermal energy development in Africa, but geothermal power remains nascent. Kenya's capacity right now is just 157 MW, but the country is constructing a 280 MW power plant and is trying to attract investors to build another 300 MW project anticipated to cost about $400 million.