An initial deal between Hamas and Israel to wind down the war in Gaza will decrease violence in the short term as both sides are likely to comply with the first phase of the ceasefire, but over time talks on Gaza's future are likely to stall because of disagreements over more contentious topics, likely leading to a low-intensity conflict and potentially return to full-scale war. On Oct. 8, Israel and Hamas agreed to the first phase of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement in the Egyptian city of Sharm el Sheikh. The deal calls for a temporary halt to hostilities (with a partial ceasefire being announced early on Oct. 9), a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces to a defined line in the Gaza Strip and a hostage-prisoner exchange. In this opening phase, which is expected to occur in the coming days, Hamas will release the roughly 20 remaining Israeli hostages believed to...
