COLUMNS

Al Qaeda in 2017: Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Scott Stewart

VP of Tactical Analysis, Stratfor

Jan 5, 2017 | 08:00 GMT

The aftermath of a car bomb that detonated near the Peace Hotel in Mogadishu, Jan. 2. Al Qaeda has survived against the odds, and in places such as Somalia could surge back to power if African Union troops withdraw.

(MOHAMED ABDIWAHAB/AFP/Getty Images)

Editor's Note

For the past several years Stratfor has provided an annual forecast for the jihadist movement in a series of Security Weekly pieces. With the launch of Stratfor's Threat Lens product, the way this forecast is presented has changed. Stratfor will still publish three Security Weeklies covering the Islamic State camp, the al Qaeda camp and grassroots jihadists. However, an additional in-depth report will be made available to Threat Lens subscribers. This will contain the entirety of our forecast for the jihadist movement in 2017, of which the weeklies are excerpts.

In 2016, al Qaeda defied expectations and managed to hang on. Last year, we wrote that the al Qaeda core organization led by Ayman al-Zawahiri was weak. That assessment was based on the fact that the core group had mounted no attacks, and statements by leaders of franchises such as Jabhat al-Nusra (now Jabhat Fatah al-Sham) and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula appeared to carry more weight than those of the central leadership. However, the course of events in 2016 made it clear that this assessment was misguided. We noted in June 2015 that al Qaeda had managed to gain some small advantage by maintaining a low profile, portraying itself as a moderate jihadist alternative to the Islamic State and viewing its struggle through the lens of insurgent strategy as a "long war." Al Qaeda's game plan worked in 2016 and will continue to pay dividends in 2017, enabling the...

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