GRAPHICS

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Strongholds

Jun 12, 2012 | 22:30 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Strongholds

In spring 2011, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) began seizing control of towns in the Yemen's southern province of Abyan. AQAP started its offensive when Yemen was in the midst of intensifying rebel movements and a fight for power between rival government and military factions. This left the government distracted and unable to challenge the militants' control over the cities. In early May, Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi ordered the military to resume the battle against AQAP with the support of Washington, Riyadh and a number of local tribes and even southern secessionists. The military took control of Batis, roughly 16 kilometers (10 miles) north of the AQAP stronghold of Jaar, on June 11. The Yemeni army then continued to push south toward the militant stronghold of Zinjibar. Instead of continuing to fight, AQAP militants reportedly withdrew from both Jaar and Zinjibar, saying they did not want to spill more blood. But the real reason for their withdrawal was that they understood they would be defeated in a conventional battle with the Yemeni military. This was the first time the militants acknowledged a unilateral withdrawal. The Yemeni army has reportedly turned its attention on the AQAP-controlled city of Shaqra. A number of militants tried to escape eastward by boat from Shaqra, but according to the Yemeni Defense Ministry, airstrikes hit 10 militant boats. The Yemeni military will likely continue this offensive against AQAP, but even if the internal government prevents AQAP from re-seizing territory, al Qaeda-linked militants will likely continue a lower level insurgency similar to the level seen before January 2011.