ASSESSMENTS

Al Shabaab Is Poised to Surge in East Africa

undefined and Global Security Analyst
Thomas Abi-Hanna
Global Security Analyst, Stratfor

Jan 15, 2020 | 09:15 GMT

Smoke rises from a U.S. military base in Lamu County, Kenya, on Jan. 5, 2020, after an al Shabaab attack.

Smoke rises from a U.S. military base in Lamu County, Kenya, on Jan. 5, 2020, after an al Shabaab attack.

(Xinhua/Xin Huashefa via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The first attack by Somali militant group al Shabaab on U.S. military forces in Kenya portends an intensified focus by the group on American targets and, potentially, greater insecurity in East Africa.
  • Less U.S. involvement, and more instability, in East Africa will leave foreign interests and local governments more exposed to the group.
  • This will give al Shabaab freer rein within Somalia, allowing it to marshal its resources and seek to expand its area of operations.

The first-ever attack by Somali militant group al Shabaab on U.S. military forces in Kenya portends an intensified focus by the group on American targets and potentially greater insecurity in East Africa. Jihadist militants from the group stormed Camp Simba on Jan. 5, killing a U.S. service member and two contractors and destroying several aircraft and helicopters. Al Shabaab's first-ever attack on a U.S. military installation in Somalia occurred just months ago, and it has previously killed Americans in attacks on soft targets in Kenya....

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