GRAPHICS

An Alleged Israeli Air Raid in Sudan

Oct 26, 2012 | 16:24 GMT

Stratfor's graphic of the day features a standout geopolitical map, chart, image or data visualization reflecting global and regional trends and events.

(Stratfor)

An Alleged Israeli Air Raid in Sudan

On Oct. 25, the Sudanese government accused Israel of bombing the Yarmouk arms factory in Khartoum, where explosions killed two people late Oct. 24. Initial reports indicated an accidental fire at the facility caused the explosions, but Sudan claims to have evidence of an Israeli raid and has promised to present it to the United Nations. Israeli officials have refused to comment on Sudan's accusations, but the arms facility is believed to play a role in supplying militants in Gaza with weapons and Israel has previously launched airstrikes targeting supply convoys for Gaza-bound arms in Sudan. Still, an airstrike in Khartoum would be inconsistent with Israel's approach in previous reported operations in Sudan. Previous Israeli airstrikes hit targets along the country's coastline, far from the capital. In January 2009, the Israeli air force targeted and destroyed a convoy of 17 trucks filled with weapons en route to Gaza. The strike occurred in northeastern Sudan near the border with Egypt. In another incident, Sudan accused Israel of launching an airstrike on a car carrying a Hamas arms trafficker in Port Sudan in April 2011, though Israel never acknowledged conducting the operation. The location of the factory in Khartoum is much farther away from Israel and much deeper into Sudanese airspace than any previous attack. A Stratfor source claimed that the purported Israeli jets returned by initially flying east and then exiting Sudanese airspace across the Red Sea near the Egyptian border. This would be the shortest route to return from Khartoum to Israel but still means the jets would have had to travel more than 800 kilometers (about 500 miles) through Sudanese airspace on their way out. Though Israel would be capable of taking out this installation, no evidence has yet emerged to support Sudan's accusations. Moreover, an attack on an arms factory in the Sudanese capital would be a much more provocative move than any of the previous strikes.