Analytic Guidance: Considering a Coup in Venezuela

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is in an increasingly tenuous position. During his nearly two-year time in office, Maduro has contended with an increasingly weak national economy, eroding his ability to manage the various factions within the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). In this context, widespread unconfirmed reports have emerged, none clearly reliable, that a coup is being planned against the president.

According to information from Stratfor sources, military commanders and auxiliary security forces known as colectivos will coordinate with the majority of PSUV congress members to prevent Maduro from returning to power once he returns to the country. Maduro is abroad on a state visit that took him to China and Russia as well as Iran, and he has so far not provided a return date. Venezuelan Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez, is also part of the delegation accompanying Maduro.