ASSESSMENTS

Analytical Guidance: A New Taliban Leader Emerges

Sep 18, 2015 | 09:00 GMT

Analytical Guidance: Mullah Mansoor Consolidates Control Over the Taliban
Afghan security forces and residents inspect the site of a powerful truck bomb explosion in Kabul on Aug. 7.

(WAKIL KOHSAR/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

A key power struggle within the Afghan Taliban appears to be over: The Taliban have announced that Mullah Mohammad Omar's two sons, Mullah Abdul Manan and Mullah Mohammed Yaqoob, have pledged their support for the Taliban's recently appointed leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor. Gaining this support marks another success for Mullah Mansoor as he consolidates control over the fragmented movement in the wake of the July revelation that former leader Mullah Omar has been dead for more than two years. 

Disunity within the Taliban has been the greatest challenge to the prospect of peace talks between Kabul and the insurgency. However, the decision by Mullah Omar's family to throw its support behind Mullah Mansoor, by itself, does not indicate that meaningful talks are approaching. The likelihood of talks still rests on whether Mullah Mansoor can maintain unity in the Taliban on the divisive issue of negotiations. Similarly, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani must sustain political support in Kabul to pursue talks.

Mullah Akhtar Mansoor's consolidation of power does not guarantee long-term unity or progress in negotiations with Kabul....

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