Analytical Guidance: Skirmishes Escalate in Eastern Ukraine

The cease-fire in eastern Ukraine never completely eliminated skirmishes along the line of contact. However, separatists' actions in the past few days are moving beyond the established pattern. More frequent and consistent use of heavy artillery weapons, including Grad rocket artillery, along different sections of the contact line indicates that the separatists have a focused intent to escalate the situation.

Of course, the Ukrainian separatists are still largely dependent on Russian support, so their actions must be seen in the context of Russia's higher-level imperatives in the Ukraine crisis. The escalation comes as Europe is extending its economic sanctions against Russia and is very much a part of the broader interaction between Russia and the West.