GRAPHICS

Anti-Militant Operations in the Rasht Valley

Nov 12, 2010 | 20:52 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Tajikistan's security operations to catch the roughly two dozen Islamist militants who escaped from a Dushanbe prison and fled to the Rasht Valley in eastern Tajikistan are almost complete, according to the chairman of the State National Security Committee of Tajikistan. There have been many conflicting reports over the nature and success of these security sweeps since operations began in late August, and the government and military have blamed the local and regional media for sympathizing with the militants. The government's harsh crackdown in the Rasht Valley and an increase in attacks in Tajikistan has led to speculation that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a militant group that was active throughout the region in the late 1990s and early 2000s, could be regrouping in the Rasht Valley. But whether the IMU will be a significant force once again will depend on the group's capability to strike outside of the Rasht Valley and Tajikistan and into the greater Fergana Valley, which it has not yet demonstrated.