Applying the Lessons of the Past

This truth I hold to be self-evident: that while the past is not a very good guide to the future, it is the only one we have. Anyone who wants to be prepared for the things to come -- whether those things involve climate change, finance, politics or your social life -- must begin by looking at the things that already have been. We need to identify not only the trends that have shaped the world but also the countervailing forces that might disrupt them and send the future down an entirely new path. Strategy and planning, in short, are branches of applied history....