Domestic and international constraints will pressure Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah to ensure their recent exchange of rocket fire doesn’t spiral into another war. But in Israel, the need to appease a more hawkish electorate could also push Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s new government to assert its military dominance, increasing the likelihood of a near-term military escalation. On Aug. 6, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah launched an estimated 20 rockets at Israel, some of which were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system. The projectiles caused no damage and Hezbollah claimed through their media that they intentionally struck “open areas, suggesting the group had intentionally avoided populated targets in a calculated attempt to avoid a major war. In response, Israel launched airstrikes and artillery fire in southern Lebanon, while Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned that more strikes could be forthcoming if Hezbollah kept up rocket fire. Israel’s...
